I like the outdoor voting and smiley face balloons! cheerful voting centers.
updated. Obama wins
Updated! Guam Doesn't Count. [/snark]
Let's not bury the lead.
Obama won Guam by SEVEN (7) votes. Seven votes out of over 4500 caucus votes.
Both candidates won two (2) pledged delegate votes (technically, each won a slate of four [4] people with half a vote each.) That part won't change.
What Obama wins by winning Guam -- why Guam matters -- is two Super Delegates were also at stake (out of five SD's total.)
In terms of actual popular vote, after all 4500+ votes were counted, Obama was only ahead of Clinton by seven (7) votes.
Clinton won the larger more industrial caucuses (about 1/3 of Guam) and Obama won the smaller, more rural caucuses (about 2/3 of Guam.)
Of every race so far in the entire primary season, I believe this is by far the tightest in absolute numbers. SEVEN VOTES, means just four votes switching sides stood between winner and loser. From a statistical point of view, there is NO difference at all -- both candidates are so far within the margin of error it's silly to talk of who the voters prefer, except in terms of awarding the SDs by the rules. The voters of Guam are split, evenly, between Obama and Clinton statistically.
Under the law, there will likely be an automatic recount (and I don't know Guam's rules; I'm saying what the law is in most states, and most parties.) In most states, any difference this close triggers an automatic recount, and of course, candidates under the LAW can ALWAYS request a recount, assuming they're willing to pay for the recount. With only 4500+ votes here and 2 SD votes at stake, Clinton's team would be massively stupid not to fund a recount.
All Clinton's team has to find is a FOUR VOTE SHIFT in her direction, and she gets the 2 SDs and bragging rights for Guam.
*sighs*
I hate pie fights.
First, more on Guam.
A recount IS happening.
Massive amounts of ballots were spoiled in Guam's largest city. Over 500 ballots. That's 10% of the total ballots cast in the entire election.
Ten Percent spoilage in a city which went for Clinton by over 63%. Huh. That's kind of weird.
The recount is AUTOMATIC. The election is NOT certified.
When this is over, I predict that, as we know already, Clinton/Obama each get two pledged delegate votes. And Clinton will have won the election outright, which should mean her slate of electors end up as SDs, meaning she gets 2+ SDs out of Guam.
That's a prediction.
More importantly, Obama was predicted to win Guam by a bunch. He didn't beat the spread. That's going to hurt him. Fortunately for Obama, he has two primaries on Tuesday which -- I'm not actually paying a lot of attention right now -- I think he's expected to win. Assuming he does, then Guam won't matter much, even if the recount reverses things.
Analysis:
What really matters for Obama right now is to shift the perception that he can't win major states, and that he can only win isolated segments of the population.
I'm giving my political analysis here, not what I necessarily think SD should do, although people are welcome to pie fight away (so long as they don't personally attack me.) What some SDs are going to be looking at come June before they declare who they'll vote for is, the general election. If these SDs think, regardless of the current delegate count, that Clinton will win against McCain, and Obama won't, they will declare for Clinton, and Clinton will win in Denver. If they believe Obama will win against McCain, they'll declare for Obama, that will be enough to put him over the top, and Obama will win in Denver. Will of the people has something to do with it, but SD votes are part of the party rules too. They are there, just like our Congressmen and Congresswomen, our Senators, as part of a representative democracy. They get to vote as they choose. Pledged Delegates don't. Is this the best possible system? I doubt it. But it's the one we have. Just as the votes in Florida and Michigan don't count, because those states violated the rules, so the SDs get to vote as they choose, because those are the rules. Next cycle, we can have different rules.
My point is, Obama MUST show he can win NOW. What he was doing two months ago doesn't matter to the SDs making a choice now. And if he keeps heading in the wrong direction, he's likely to have some SDs change their vote as well. Same thing goes for Clinton. She has to keep winning. If she does, she likely will get the nomination via SDs. If she doesn't keep winning, she won't.
I know longer give a frack. I am sick and tired of them both. Neither of them were my first choice. Neither of them were my second choice. Both of them going on FOX seriously pisses me off. The mania of BOTH of their supporters seriously pisses me off. I will vote for whomever wins the nomination and support them, because I have four children, and I believe in the rule of law, a fair Supreme Court, and a liberal democracy.
Clinton and Obama are still within the MOE against each other v McCain, with Clinton at the far reach of the MOE (she does better against McCain than Obama). Gallop Daily Tracking Poll
As of yesterday, it's now been nine straight days with Clinton & Obama inside the MOE. MyDD has more including how the Rev. Wright story is -- or isn't -- hurting the Obama campaign.
Have fun... no personal attacks.
Jesse, I didnt give delegate counts because they arent released yet. Obama won 17 of the 21 districts. I for one dont know how the party Guam are going to distribute them. Lets not rely on mydd for news on any races.
I mean 14. no 17
Also, Obama doesnt need to SHOW anything except that he has more delegates.
"Pie fights" are what Lucille Ball did on "I Love Lucy". What we're doing now, is trying to get the candidate nominated who hasn't got blood up to his elbows, and who doesn't think that John McCain is good commander in chief material.
And if he gets a 50-50 split with Hillary in EVERY primary, that means he will go into Denver with a lead of about 150 pledged delegates, and, with the way that superdelegates are moving toward him, possibly more.
At that point, if Clinton can backroom her way to the nomination, it will destroy the democratic party.
And the party "leaders" damn well know it.
That's why there will be more of them getting off the fence in the next few weeks, and when they get off, it won't be for the only lifeboat that the republican's have left in this election.
Are there other no-so-biased sites reporting. MyDD is very very very pro clinton. Is there someone else showing the results that does not have so obvious a preference?
What does John Mcqueen say on this one?
Unlike most states, Guam has not provided their delegate selection plan/rules online...so it is not clear what process they will follow to allocate
read basic #'s here
http://www.democrats.org/a/2007/
...a_delega_14.php
Sure, here are the actual results direct from Guam (the domain name is registered in Guam, etc):
Guam Final Caucus Results -- Uncertified
As for the issue of the recount and ballot spoilage, that is being reported directly from Guam on their main news channels. ABC is also quoting the Pacific News Center source, which quotes election officials.
Pacific News Center -- Officials say Recount is 'Imminent'
ABC -- Recount in Guam
One correction to the SD stuff. One of the two SD being decided -- there are five, but only two are being voted on in Guam -- is committed to Obama, regardless. I don't know if that person won or not in her own right, even if after a recount Clinton wins. Therefore assuming for the moment that Clinton takes Guam after the recount -- again, assumption -- Clinton would end up with at least one SD (which would mean Obama/Clinton tied the territory) or possibly two, depending on how the second SD slate goes. *shrugs* At this point, even I'm confused.
Finally, as to how it will all play out, I have my opinion, Hubris has his, other people have theirs. Analysis/opinion is different from news. I haven't been especially well lately and I'm not going to return to blogging with a POST on my analysis of Guam. *cracks up* Though I don't mind commenting. A little.
June will be here a month from now. And we will see how it all goes. *shrugs*
differences of opinion are the spice of life (and blogs)
By the way, regardless of people's opinion about MyDD and Clinton, the article I linked to there was not about Guam. It was about Obama and Rev. Wright.
It talks about how the Gallop polling -- which is obviously a massively respected polling organization -- shows that the Rev. Wright story which the media keep going nuts about, is NOT hurting Obama in the polls.
That is what the article says.
This is the Group NEWS blog, and we're journalists, not advocates. I linked to the article because it was counterintuitive. AND because we have folks who tend to dismiss stuff coming from MyDD especially because they're looking for Obama favorable stuff. I'm looking for neither Clinton favorable or Obama favorable. I'm looking for analysis. Especially I'm looking for analysis which goes against the dominant traditional media narrative and tells me why they're doing so, backing up what they're saying with figures I trust. That doesn't mean at all that I trust MyDD for everything; I don't at all. *laughs* But that analysis looked interesting, so I linked it.
It was about Rev. Wright, not about Guam. An analysis of polling stats which, were they trying to spin stuff for Clinton, would not be at all what it is.
Instead, they're saying the precise opposite of the rest of the media. They're saying that no, Rev. Wright is NOT hurting Obama, and the polling data shows it. Clinton and Obama remain tied with the MOE and they've been tied since before the PENN primary and before the Wright scandal broke. They've been tied for nine long days (as of yesterday.) All the polls do is keep bouncing around back and forth and back and forth within the MOE.
That is damn well worth knowing, 'cause the media keep screaming about how Obama's numbers are cratering like a plane in a death spiral, ever since Rev. Wright happened.
Turns out it's a fracking LIE.
Huh.
How 'bout them apples?! Got to ask, why the traditional media would be invested first in building up Obama when Clinton was about to win, and now, in building up Clinton when Obama was about to win?
And MyDD is the blog telling us the analysis on the polling. The (alleged) Clinton-loving Obama-hating MyDD is putting their journalistic integrity FIRST.
Good for them.
I am hoping that they get to the convention so evenly matched that it takes several votes to declare a candidate, and that they end up with John Edwards as the candidate as a tie-breaker.
Or Al Gore.
good god! no! we really cannot afford a brokered convention. are activists and ground troops are already getting tired and discouraged. We need a candidate and we need to get started fighting the real fight. Plus that assumes that the obama delegates and clinton delegates and their voters would just happily line up behind a candidate who emerges from a brokered convention... not a bet I want to take with the future of our country.
al gore is a little busy getting nan nan and newt limbaugh to cozy up on a widdle couch and coo sweet "we can solve it" shit to each other. Now theres a damn lie right there because we can't solve a damn thing until we change the conditions that created the freakin' problems we face. If there's any doubt who created the conditions, let me be clear... clinton... bush and al gore himself. No.
And Jesse is exactly correct that the ONLY people going on about revi wright are the swiftboaters out for another spin. msnbc dan abrams and his "special report" on replay and faux news with their non-stop "coverage" called "Fall From Grace". And no one is countering it, identifying it, or pretty much doing a damn thing. Everyone seems pretty darn happy to let this happen without a fight again.
No one cares about wright except the media doing the take down. Skeerd they'll lose their "power" to drive the country. The polls consistantly show that the voters don't give one hoot in hell about Obama's pastor. Its a glaring example of what the right wing and DLC will do to retain power.
We Democrats HAVE a nominee. His name is Barack Obama.
I fail to see why the Winner (thus far) needs to *prove* anything? Popular vote, delegates, number of states won... all Obama.
Usually, the loser (Hillary, in this case) has all the proving to do. But I realize this has little to do with many people's view of reality. The underdog is winning, and a lot of entrenched interests are shitting their pants. These people are trying to convince the American people that the resultant stink is perfume, and of the highest quality.
Bah. Meh.
The reason the MSM was first chortling over Obama's derailing of the Coronation Express, was their inherent dislike of Clinton. They rightly feared her as the instrument of resuming the Clinton years. They were accurately reflecting the visceral hatred that republicans and independents, and a lot of conservatives feel for her.
But when Obama, untarnished by a track record of support for bush's fucking-of-the-cluster began piling up the delegates, and drawing huge crowds, and becaus he is clearly the best choice and opportunity for changing the bidness-as-usual crap of Washington, they started shitting their pants at the thought of his igniting some real hope and enthusiasm in america.
Now, as Hillary keeps moving to the right (Culminating with Bill's recent appearance on Rush Limbaugh's radio show; thanks, Bill! What a coup for the assholes. 
) and since they know that she can't beat them senseless over the war, given all of the video clips and her vote and statements supporting it, and that if the democrats nominate her, it will mean that the election, at best, will be a coin-toss, instead of a democratic tsunami, they, just like Bill Bennett speaking on CNN the night of the Pennsylvania primary, have discovered that she's not so bad, after all.
Especially, considering that in red state Virginia, Obama pulled 134,000 more votes than all of the republicans combined. And that he's been consistently pulling more votes in "safe" SOUTHERN republican states than the repubs can turn out.
All of this bullshit about Hillary's big charge is just the MSM (and the GOP) shreiking "Please God, can we have a McCain-Clinton race, instead of McCain-Obama, which offers real change?"
I ask again, with Hillary's praise of McCain, what is she going to go after him for?
His bad breath?
The only real hit that Obama has taken, is over Wright's comments. And given John Hagee's lunatic pronouncements, and the fact that McCain ACTIVELY sought Hagee's and his wingnut followers support, it's just one more example how the MSM is willing to sweep republican asshattery under table, while swiftboating any democrat who looks like they are a threat to the wretched, bloody, status quo that george bush, with help from Hillary Clinton, has created.
It's no accident that Clinot has not the slightest interest in pointing out Hagee's Book-of-Revelations gibberish, but instead, is joining the republicans in the flaying of Obama for Wright's statements. She doesn't give a shit WHAT she has to do to win the nomination. And her nauseating use of Karl Rove-style tactics is proof of it.
Littlest Gator is spot-on. A brokered convention will be the kiss of death for us in this election. And the idea of giving Al Gore or John Edwards the nomination, as a reward for pretending that, after years of Hillary's support for the war, up to and including her applause for it, at bush's SOTU, while Obama had the common decency and the intelligence to make HIS statement by sitting on his hands, she and Obama are "two fine candidates" as some of the women's "progressive" blogs keep trying to peddle, is nonsense.
Gore and Edwards both know where Clinton has stood on bush's loon-crusade. They both know that the rightwing's pimping for her, and handling her with kid gloves, is nothing but their perfervid desire to have her to run against, instead of Obama, and they both know that if she CAN win the nomination using the superdelegates, the republicans, looking at 6 months worth of clinging to the debacle in Iraq, and trying to convince americans that "we're winning" will heave a collective sigh of relief that will be audible on Mars, and they will then turn on her like a pack of rabid hyenas.
The right's support of Hillary is proof positive that she's their only lifeboat in this election. Conversely, the moment Obama's nomination becomes a reality, it means that we will have a REAL debate on the war, and on the economy. Not one that's ordained by the MSM, between a republican and a republican-lite.
Tanbark,
I like your thinking.
My only caution to all those who call themselves Dems is that they need to take step back from the brink of anti-HRC or anti-BHO. The GOP'ers are exploiting this rift, and will continue to do so no matter who is the nominee. They correctly recognize the national mega-trend that is so far away from the failed GOP/Bush policies that the only way these ReThuglicans can retain any say in the national future is to get the Dems to form the circular firing squads.
This GOP exploitation only works if we let it! It's whats the matter with Kansas and the rest of the country. Its been their way since McCarthy, Goldwater, and Nixon.
And its gotta stop. We the people can take away the MSM memes by being clear that no matter who emerges from the convention - they are voting for that person. Absent Dem self-doubt, that is what is going to happen.
We gotta stop buying the MSM bullsh*t. (I know I'm preaching to the choir here.) And begin taking to account the so called journalists that enter the rift with intent to exploit for their own horse-race narratives.
If we don't, then the most unelectable of people, a man who so loaths himself that he came to adopt and campaign for the man who savaged his honor and family, Huggy McSame, will have a real chance to win in November.
Then, the Republic will be truly and thoroughly DEAD.
SP
Serving Patriot; thanks for the reply. And for the props. :o)
It's just that I am bone-marrow certain that the biggest threat to a democratic win of historic proportions this fall, comes from Hillary Clinton, NOT John McCain.
The moment we nominate Barack Obama, McCain becomes practically irrelevant. He's a sacrificial goat, and the republicans know it. And now they have the bonus of seeing Hillary dragging the party to the right, by using Karl Rove's playbook. And it's why they are speaking of her admiringly, or not at all.
This little love fest between political whores, the republicans and the Clintons (see: Bill's recent appearance on Rush Limbaugh's radio program) should tell us all we need to know about which candidate deserves our support.
With her track record of flacking for the war, and her praise of McCain as good Commander-in-Chief material, and her steadily moving to the right, anyone who supports her is saying:
"The surge is working. We are winning in Iraq."
And, just as I do with the conservatives; for her supporters, I will now put up some more reality of what is going on in our bushCo-longed-for 51st state:
http://apnews.myway.com//article.../
D90ERP380.html
Today, the caravan of Maliki's wife was attacked in downtown Baghdad. This is just another thermometer for the rising temperatures in mission-accomplished land.
Likewise, the tragic deaths today of 4 more of our Marines, in "secure" WESTERN ANBAR PROVINCE, is an indicator of just how little real control bush and our military have there.
That attack was NOT the work of Shiites. They don't go into western Anbar; if they do they get converted into dog food.
It was done by Sunnis. Either supporters of Al Queada, or by Sunnis in the "Awakening-to-bribes-by-george-bush" group. If the latter, it may have been the first heads-up that a raise in that $800,000-a-day protection payment is expected, as the value to bush, McCain, and GOP, and our military, (and Hillary) of NOT having to deal with both Shiite and Sunni attacks at the same time, in the middle of our election, takes an exponential jump.
We can all look for the Mesopotamian branch of the Soprano family, or at least, the Sunni section of it, to get that raise, especially, as we get into the thick of the campaign.
So, SP; I understand your concern about McCain making hay while Obama and Clinton go at it. It's unfortunate, but I feel that the debate about which of the two "democrats" (I use the term loosely, in Hillary's case) is the better and more deserving candidate, is valid and important.
I also feel that the election is going to be won or lost on the basis of THIS choice; not the choice of McCain and whomever.
Hillary Clinton has totally revealed herself for what she is; a political chameleon who thinks that the democratic nomination is hers by some birthright, or because she needs it as a wound dressing for the knocks which she and her family have received from the right, all these years.
If she had fought the good fight for us; if she, like 21 OTHER Democratic Senators, had had the intelligence and the courage to vote against authorizing the shitmire;
if, like Obama, she had had the sense to speak out against the invasion early-on, and if she had not run a campaign that should be paying royalties to Karl Rove, then there might be some reason to consider her as one of "two fine candidates".
But she has none of this on her resume', and we need to do MORE of pointing that out, not less. As Iraq continues to fester, and as our troops continue to be sacrificed for the bloody, cynical, purpose of trying to give bush and McCain and the GOP time to bail, we need to remind ourselves and democrats in general, that Hillary expressed her support for bush and his war as recently as last January, at his SOTU address, and that she understands perfectly that the realities of Iraq are a threat to HER political success, as much as they are, to that of the republicans.
They are of a piece, and claiming and pretending otherwise, is doing nothing but serving republican interests in this election.
Tanbark Hussein.
so they can dump the flaming shitbag into the democrats laps, and then turn around and pillory them, because THEY don't now how to unshit the bed which the repubicans (with Hillary's help) have foulled so badly.
ceabaird - Exactly! It is the same aroma that engulfed this country when bushII came along and the same acrid scent that allowed Iraq to happen.
Tanbark - 
What he said.
SP - Yes, the pubs will continue to exploit this clinton-created rift. That cat is out of the bag and ain't going back in. So, the only choice left here is formally recognize, as a party, THE nominee... Barack Obama. And get behind him 100% and let the clintons' campaign fall away from shear dead weight of it. We don't need the pubbie's permission to do that and yet, the Democrats, via msm, keep giving a shit what the republicans might say or do. I don't care about the republicans and the Democrats don't need the Clintons' blessing to move forward here either. They're over. They need to be over and they need to start acting for the good of the country.
The Clintons' screeching about "popular vote" is about 8 years too late. Their screeching about most everything or anything is too late. They had the microphone and yet, there was silence for these years of hell. Silence or agreement. And don't we really have to wonder IF, according to the clintons' premise, they are the ones to "lead us forward" just where the hell have they been for 8 years?!?!?! Absent. IF the Clintons' have sooooo much experience why didn't hillary run in 2004? That's 4 years she could have saved us from? IF she's so tough, why NOT take on gwbush in 2004? I'll tell you why...... because they didn't have the permission of the repulicans and selected to let gwbush have a second term. Where were they when John Kerry was getting swiftboated? And since? Sure as hell not LEADING this party. Its the DLC behavior that loses fall elections. Its why the msm and the pubbies are lining up for clintons'.
You're right... we have to stop LETTING the msm and pubbies and DLC do this shit. Being against the Clintons' campaign is no way being against another Democrat. Its being against the DLC (republican lite) party. Its time for that split to occur and watch the Democratic Party become stronger than its been in years.
We will win in November with our official cadidate... Barack Obama.
Tanbark and Myrtle Hussein June,
I am with you folks... BHO is the nominee, and failure to put him at the top of the ticket will be the death knell of the party.
BHO is the guy who can bring enough Dems on the coattails to oust many of the incumbant bastards in Congress that refuse to do as they were elected to do. Together with a large mandate, he can lead to the right kind of changes our nation must make over the coming years.
That said, my point is that we the people give currency to Rove's playbook - and thus the oxygen HRC needs to stay in the news cycle - only because we allow the memes to stand. If we the people cannot break out of this stupor (and it is hard because we've been trained to be comliant and stuporous haters of our own government and constitution), then we'll end up with either HRC or Huggy.
And be the worst off for it.
SP
You know, if Hillary had got just 8 more votes, Guam's votes might actually have mattered. (/snark)
SP, right you are. We need to break out of the old, straight-jacketed racism and the trickle-down economics. And we have an excellent chance to do it with Obama.
If he gets just a split next Tuesday, the pressure on the party leaders to help end this will increase. He will protect his lead of 130-150 delegates (depending on which count you use) and he will be that much closer to taking that lead into Denver.
If Gore and the rest of the party honchos can't see to endorse him, then I will be damned if I'll give ANY cred to them, at Denver. As I said, they KNOW what's at stake in this election, and nothing has changed; the only candidate who can beat us is the candidate who's sucking up to the people we need so BADLY to beat; and that candidate is Hillary Clinton.
CNN confirms that they will each pick up 4 delegates from the Guam race. also that many older voters turned out. (a Hillary constituency) I am impressed that 5000+ dems voted in Guam. who knew?
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS...test/
index.html
ahh obama won, thats why i didn't hear the outcome of guam after teh fact...it dosn't matter (busy, sunday havieng a baby girl....
Commenting by HaloScan
