Mr. Heidt, this is the best post I have read yet, anywhere. Thank you. It made my heart pound with anger towards Kerry, which isn't new, yet I got butterflies in my tummy for Bush. I yell at my tv "UBL is dead" when I hear Kerry etc. talk about UBL. The butterflies are a result of reading the reasons why you say Bush hasn't mentioned it. It sounds right, too right.
President Bush has always had my vote and respect. Your blog is now on my "favorites". Good job.
Wow...very powerful.... I will be pointing people to this web site to read THIS post ASAP. Haven't heard it said better.
Outstanding.
There has never been a doubt in my mind that W puts the country above his political ambitions. He is not a "politician," and this is why. A true politician never puts any goal above him/herself.
His opponents like to whine that, prior to 9/11, W was a foreign policy isolationist (and ignoramous). That was then, this is now. You see the measure of a person under adversity and hardship, not under peace and calm, and W has shown his true character for those of us willing to see. And we see the true character of the opposition under adversity and hardship, as well.
Your post is "dead on balls accurate", to coin a phrase. Another component at work here is the perception of the American people. There are more than a few of us who believe that once UBL is dead, the war is over. We won. Bush understands that this conflict is about much more than just UBL or AQ. If we declare victory and quit now, Zarqawi or another of his ilk will be visiting another 9/11 on us in the near future. W won't let that happen on his watch, and he won't leave a mess for his successor to clean up.
Brilliant, as usual, but this is definitely your best post ever. The full meaning of your conclusions about the character of our fine President are breathtaking. What a genuine patriot he is!
Home run Froggy! I have thought the same for a while now. The egomaniac UBL has to be dead, he just wouldn't be able to stay quiet this long. The only other option I've been able to come up with is he's sitting in a sea side villa in Iran waiting for his plastic surguries to heal and hoping we'll forget about him, cause you don't tug on Supermans cape! GWB's disipline has been something to truly admire, considering the platter of crap he got handed he has done an incredible job. 4 more years!! I read your posts daily and you sure make this high mileage old Corpman proud!
Awesome post, dead-on analysis. I concur with your take on the current OBL situation (or non-situation, as the case may be) and on the incredible wisdom and integrity of our president.
Matt,
In case you missed it, the guys at Power Line agree with you.
I saw that Duane. But I'm not catching the trackback for some reason
I support Pres. Bush, and certainly believe that he values the national interest above his political interests. I also think it likely that UBL is dead or disabled for the reasons that you have stated. But your reasons as to why Pres. Bush would wish to keep it quiet make no sense whatsoever (notwithstanding all the unquestioning praise you've received on this post).
On the one hand, you say that "Zwahiri decided that it was better to just pretend that UBL was alive because there was no plausible martyr story to tell," on the other hand, that “the President knows that making UBL a martyr would serve to further inspire his minions.” An utter logical failure. If American troops had killed UBL, you think it would have hurt America’s cause to make this public? The President stated our intention of getting him “dead or alive,”- you think that publicizing the achievement of this goal would inspire the terrorsits more than the failure to achieve this goal would inspire them? Finally if you believe that publicizing the death of UBL would hurt America by inspiring terrorists, why are you doing it?
I think the Pres. suspects that UBL is dead, but just doesn’t know it for a fact.
The last video of Osama is from the Tora Bora region in 2001. Osama does not say a word, looks pale and almost lifeless as he sits behind his 2nd in command who does all the talking,
After that all we get is supposed audio tapes from Osama which our intelligence says is likely him but which the Swiss intelligence says that they are 90%+ certin that it is not.
Also there were intercepts where he was being refered to as "Mohammad Osama" a designation of elevation to a higher state that may be used if he were past.
I concur with the assessment that Osama Bin Laid in the the ground.
I'm tending to agree with Honest Doc that UBL is dead but it isn't known with any certainty so Bush can't come right out and say it. But, if there is some evidence that he is dead, Bush should release that info even if it does serve to inspire jihadists.
The risk of recruiting a few more terrorists into the fold is nothing compared to having Kerry return us to a Sept. 10th mindset.
A Bush defeat will also serve to inspire the terrorists, who can claim that Allah has driven Bush from office.
Hey, what's with the Carter Center ad?!?
I don't get to pick the ads, jerky.
I agree and have been saying so since 2002, when I first went back to Afghanistan after the fall of the Taliban. Here's what I posted at RLSimon recently:
OBL is dead. Killed with a bunker buster...to be exact, a 52 and a half foot rocket/bomb. Nearly three years ago.
I've been in Afghanistan a number of times since 9/11 and have pursued this question many times with the tribes, the Qwami Shura, NGO internationals, ISAAF, foreign journalists, jihadis, my associate, the German author of the best book on Bin Laden--the works. And posted on this since 2002. (Here, Daily Pundit and probably in my missives to Insta.) I also 'know' (i.e. saw on the street and lived in the same small neighborhood in UTown in Peshawar) as OBL in the 80s and know a bit about the man. I know his doctor during the 90s quite well, his family dentist (!) Zabir and can attest to the fact that those who knew him claim he's long departed from this earth. With no remains available...so little of him to scrape up that none can confirm his departure. Alas. Those bombs were a bitch. But they saw him in the cave, then the cave blew up. And all there was left were little pebbles.
I was overwhelmed in Afghanistan this summer with other work (and problems...'friend' Jack Idema was arrested) but I still had some time to meet with mullahs and tribal/political leaders, from Safi Nation to Zabul and Kandahar and the consensus remains OBL is dead. Even if he weren't dead, well, he'd dead. As Roger noted, an arrogant ideologue like OBL would not remain silent...or let his visage be ignored by the likes of vidiots at Al Jazeera. If he weren't dead, he'd be dead to the Afghans and Paks because he's a coward afraid to show his face; thus violating Pushtunwali...the codes of behavior that govern the regions where he is supposedly hiding.
That being said, Al Q'aeda is still a problematic presence, especially in Pakistan (where Musharaf is waging a heroic struggle against his traitorous ISI/madrassas) and the the indigent provinces of the Gulf States. I do demur from conventional wisdom on the growth of Al Q'aeda and the myth of Bin Laden in the Arab world. I was cheered in the oil emirates (the UAE) this summer to find--compared to 2002 and 2003--that Al Q'aeda's jihadist philosophy is losing steam and prestige. Basically, terrorism is bad for business and the Middle East is now an emerging financial power. It's widely accepted in the Gulf that if OBL were alive, he would have provided visual proof by now...absent that, he's no longer a factor, much less a hero. No pictures, no respect.
It was also quite clear in the UAE that the American effort in Iraq was gaining significant support...much to my surprise. Just a year ago, things were very different. Why Bush does not publicize or capitalize on these successes has always baffled me...from Afghanistan to the Gulf, pro-Americanism is ascendant. This is not, unfortunately, a media savvy administration. It's
Sounds too good to be true. But it (your theory) has some weaknesses. The weakest part is the reason why it would be in our interest to sustain the myth that he is alive when we know otherwise. Your reason is that it would make him a martyr. Nonsense. Martyrdom arises from a perceived heroic death in an heroic struggle -- not from being fried in a cave while on the run. Confirmation of his death would undermine terrorist morale: evidence that no one is safe from our retribution; evidence that the terrorists are leaderless, in terms of a unifying myth-like figure. Dbilitating internecine competition would break out among terrorists to take over the leadership.
More importantly, confimation of his death would boost our morale! Even if there were something to the martyrdom argument, the downside of revealing pig Laden's death, in terms of giving the terrorists a martyr, is much less than the upside, in terms of boosting our own morale and self-confidence.
Conclusive evidence that pig Laden is dead would be a striking psychological and moral defeat for the terrorists. Then why don't we make such a claim? Quite possibly because the gov doesn't believe it. Almost certainly because we don't have such evidence, certainly not "slam-dunk" conclusive.
The most import point: the risks in making such a claim are severe, though they have nothing to do with martyrdom. If Bush were to claim, in the heat of the political season, that pig Laden is dead, the press, in its post-WMD bad intel frenzy, would be all over him to prove it -- and to prove it with absolute, dead certainty (like, produce the corpse for independent DNA analysis!). And Bush could not do that: he would appear to be demagoging an unsupportable claim for political gain. That would backfire. It would REALLY backfire if the claim turned out to be wrong. The biggest danger is that pig Laden is alive and laying a trap: waiting for us to claim he's dead, then he dramatically reveals himself to his followers. That possibility might seem quite remore -- but if it happened, it would be a disaster. It would energize them (the terrorists) world-wide: how UBL fooled the mighty US. Bush would instantly lose all credibily -- far beyond the problems he's had with WMD. Kerry would win in a landslide.
These risks are just too severe -- unless you can produce the corpse, or equivalent thereof. That we may never be able to do.
My Compatriot, the brilliant Mark Steyn has been saying since the fireworks at Tora Bora that OBL has been reduced to dust in the Hindu Kush. Steyn is rarely wrong.
I agree with doc. As much as I admire Bush he can't say OBL is dead because he's not sure. If he says OBL is dead and the bastard surfaces shortly thereafter Mr. Opportunist and his friends in MSM would have a field day.
To my American friends who support Bush please make sure you get the vote out.
Gain on Crain. I agree. Looks like I was typing when I should have been reading Ben Crain's post.
OK Ben. It doesn't matter what our media says about UBL's martyrdom or not status. The spin will occur on Al Jazeera, et al. Those outlets have an ideological incentive to lionize him and they would do it if they could. Of course, Bush doesn't have DNA samples, he lives in the real world not on a CSI episode. Without CSI proof, morons of American media and their proginy won't accept any proof short of a retrievable corpse. I think we are way beyond collective morale boosting in this political season in case you hadn't noticed. Your theory about waiting for Bush to announce his death to appear is ridiculous on its face and is well beyond "weak". Froggy
It would certainly be a gift from God if OBL were nothing but dust,and I am both moved and heartened by the argument for that here and at Bill Whittle's eject eject a week or so ago.
Still, what bothers me about the core of this argument is that it rests on the fact that 'we' don't claim it because it would make OBL into a martyr that would enthuse and empower the Jihadist movement around the world.
If that is the case and OBL is dead, why hasn't his "martyrdom" been announced by his own organization. What would they have to gain other than a vague and fading belief in OBL's invincibility.
Seems to me that if you are losing and want to get more troops onto your side, a martyr is the best way to go about it.
I'm not sure that this would be the case but I'd like to hear arguments on why it would not be.
Um, I might be missing something but this theory doesn't make sense. What you are saying is if Egypt's Dr. Death, Zwahiri, anounces that UBL is dead, the cult dies. But if Bush lets the story out it becomes the #1 recruiting story of the year?
Why the difference in reaction based on where it comes from?
He probably is dead but these terrorist scum aren't going to give up when they figure it out even if they've been lied to.
That's the big difference between Kerry and Bush. Kerry says we have to get UBL as if that's the end of the game. Bush knows this war is more than one man. We could parade UBL's head on a pike around the world and we'd still have to root these dirtbags out one at a time.
FWIW- I agree with your assesments of Kerry and Bush. Can't wait to pull the lever for GWB.
They missed their window of opportunity to do it. They tried to air an old recording to keep the dream alive and it was not accepted as recent. By then, their miscalculation was apparent but there was nothing else to do but pretend. Besides, the JDAM martyrdom angle is not as attractive as other methods might have been. Froggy
No. Bush knows he's dead. He was told by those who were there. At the time, sans DNA, it wasn't a good idea to promote the idea ("Since OBL is dead, the WOT is over," was the argument of the vast majority...revenge was complete and all that.) It's a bit too late now to announce a death that's nearly three years old! Pretending OBL was alive allowed us to track traffic--cell phones, internet and human resources--that ensued after each 'new' OBL tape. Ever notice that after each fresh tape there followed a rocket attack on some installation, car caravan or the like? Each time. Thanks to tracking the movement excited by every pronouncement. Most importantly, keeping OBL alive allowed the US to tramp around the border area, the sacrosanct tribal areas and inside Pakistan itself. Pushtoonwali and all that...revenge is understood to be valid. Chasing OBL to his death trumps all possible objections by the Pushtoons, Pakistanis and Afghans. This is a code everyone acknowleges, lives by--and even ferengis like ourselves are honored in our pursuit of revenge. So until OBL is officially acknowledge as dead, everyone understands our pursuit is legitimate. What more could we want?
Also, most curious that in every case the Swiss voice analysts (arguably the best in the world) said they were cut and paste jobs and phony.
As was noted in the initial post, OBL is an egotist. Sound tapes are suspect compared to a live appearance on videotape that includes proof that he's still alive and functioning. He loves videotaping and filming his live and philosophy, as do all of the commanders and warlords. Take a look at the thousands of hours of tape of the mujahideen jihad against the Soviets post-1987 produced by the AMRC in Peshawar (not coincidentally, OBL's home for many years.) This is one of largest archives of a conflict and its affect on a nation ever recorded. (Archive now at Williams College, but seen recently at a large gallery show in NYC at the Asia Foundation and on ABC's Nightline. BTW, I appeared in both shows.)
Concerning OBL there are only two options.
One is that he is dead. Killed by the avenging US forces not long after 9-11.
Second is that he is such a craven coward that he refuses to even show his face on tape, be it because he is injured, ill, has had his appearance altered or is just afraid.
Either way, it doesn't say much for him or his organization, and I wish Bush would say that.
I always wondered why Bush let Kerry's Tora Bora attacks go without retort.
Maybe Bush told Kerry in their possible post-debate phone conversation "if you mention Tora Bora again I'll be forced to respond"
http://www.punditguy.com/2004/10...-go-
hmmmmm.html
I've long felt the same way, that were UBL not dead he wouldn't have passed up all those propaganda opportunities. Well said.
OT- John© - good to see you're posting again.
We've been calling him "Usama Bin Splattered" for exactly the reasons you stated above. As my hubby says, he was probably a "fine red mist" years ago.
My theory about the reason as to why it's never been announced is a bit different, but I'm a nobody, and have nothing to support my theory.
I think we don't have dna which would allow substantiated, testable "truth". Without it, the conspiracy theorists (Oliver Stone anyone?) would go wild.
The "lie" word gets thrown around so easily these days, even by people who know better, that without absolute proof I've just figured it was better to let it go.
Most people either have, or will figure it out eventually, that is, except for those who see Usama and Elvis hanging out at the local 7-11.
So, instead of Usama, hubs chases small roving bands of al qeada and taliban (on dirtbikes no less) around the mountains of Paktika province...and those bands get smaller and smaller every day.
Possibly, but a cynical reason to keep it quiet would be that people could decide that the Al Queda threat is reduced, so there is less reason to pursue the GWOT as vigorously as we are. Thus, less reason to oppose Kerry.
Shaft,
Wouldn't that fall into the category of prioritizing the war over the campaign? To me it does. Froggy
The impact and destruction of OBL's cave (we spared nothing in the arsenal and then repeated it redundantly) made DNA recognition nearly impossible. Nothing bigger than a grain of sand, not much chance for DNA. What might be found in terms of blood specks on pebbles was undoubtedly forwarded back to the US to be typed against... what? Or whom? And whose bin Laden DNA is it anyway? OBL's son? Another son? Or a third in the cave with him at the time?
And who'd take our word for it, anyway?
Nonetheless, I'm sure that Pentagon wanted to go with the story based on very stong, credible eyewitnesses. Fortunately, Musharaf's position was factored in and the idea of publicizing the death notice of OBL was scotched in order to allow the Pakistanis to prosecute their own even more important war against Al Q'aeda. Musharaf is in a tenuous life and death struggle against the Taliban in his own administration and ISI, as well as Arab sponsored religious and military training in his country. Most Pakistanis understand that revenge against Al Q'aeda and especially OBL and give Musharaf a pass on his desire to help an ally. Were OBL dead it would be harder for Musharaf to make the case for the American presence inside Pakistan's sovereign territory and in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas.
OBL is NOT dead. He works down at my local Burger King, right alongside Elvis!
Or, as one of my commentors said recently... "He's cave-paste".
I think the copyrighted John has one of the main reasons for the non-announcement (besides the probably difficulty in getting certain proof). Not just Musharaf, but an "living" OBL spotted elsewhere could give cover to other allies who might need to do a hunt in 'sensitive' places.
Or, in short, he's a good excuse to go hunting...
Agree with the following:
1. Announce UBL is dead & Bush faces demands from the MSM for his (that's UBL's) head on a stick - and even then, they'll want DNA samples. Anything less & they claim Bush is lying.
2. Or .... the Left says "War's Over" even louder than it does now, and it isn't.
John c's theories are interesting. Could our guys be that cunning? I hope so!
ahem.
Okay, assume OBL is dead, and Z-freak in Iraq is quickly becoming persona non grata in a big way with the locals in Fallujah. What now?
My guess - A/Q starts scrambling and starts going on the defensive real soon. Defense ain't a good position in this war - we're on to them and we won't stop. This may be the end of the beginning, and the beginning of the end for these shmucks (quote ripped off from greater personnages than me).
Hoorah!!
Dangerous stuff. How and when does he say he knows he's dead? Bush should call him out. Then call him dead.
Ahemmmm....a video without audio. From when? 2 years ago? Yesterday? Where's the audiotrack? Oh...the audio is dubbed in with someone ELSE speaking. Now that's a bit unusual. I wish Major League Baseball would allow me to splice an undated video of Manny hitting a grand slam into tonight's game and take it as legit and conclusive!
When I was last in Afghanistan, proof as to the authenticity of photos and videos (in a weapons buyout program from the former mujahideen) always had a newspaper headline and date in every shot. It's a requirement in every 'proof' situation to include date and time--it's been used in Taliban and Northern Alliance video for years; and before that, the mujahideen. Even when--or especially when--communicating with distant followers. Where's OBL's proof of date?
Give OBL some credit. If he were alive he'd certainly want to prove he was by recording it 'live' with audio and making references to specific contemporary events. Or be seen reading this week's Asian edition from Times. But not record a video MOS as they say in the trade, with audio dubbed in that has some oblique reference to Iraq, undoubtedly culled from his many tapes discussing Gulf War I.
Matt, this is the most rational agreement with my thinking I've seen. As someone above mentioned, Steyn has been saying this since Tora Bora, but always as an aside to something else he was writing, brilliantly of course!
I just found your site via Protein Wisdom, have it bookmarked now.
No, no, no...my sources tell me that bin-gone is now in a wheelchair, waiting for Kerry to be elected so's he can get up and walk again when the "hard work is done"...
Great piece, have thought the same since Tora-Bora.
Thanks for the 'in'- sight.
I have to disagree with the idea that Bush is doing the country a great service by keeping the news of UBL's demise (should this in fact be the case) a secret. Whatever could happen as a result of UBL's demise becoming known pale in comparison to the damage to the war on terror that will happen if Bush doesn't win For more, click here
I'm going with the "Bush is pretty confident that Bin Laden is dead, but can't prove it" based on the same logic the posters have been using here.
So what I don't understand is this. Why didn't Bush respond to the "we let him go" attack from Kerry with "I don't know that we did let him go. He might be dead, he might not be dead. We haven't heard from him, that we know."
Then, in the low probability event that Bin Laden shows up, does that really hurt Bush that much?
Folks, It should be obviuos that he is dead.
We can not prove it so we are forced to pursue a dead man and it seems as though that al Qaeda keeps him alive so they can follow after him also, only in a different way.
It is strategic for both sides to continue this until it becomes obvious that he must be dead. For me it already has been evident for some time.
Kerry said he wants to focus on chasing him.
This is the best, most well-thought-out piece explaining why bin Laden is dead. Personally, I think he's hiding like a coward, but I could always be wrong. Gen. Tommy Franks is also saying bin Laden is alive, but he could also be bluffing.
I would be mightily disappointed if OBL is dead. I want him taken alive so we can ship him to some secret prison and torture him for another 30 years. Abu Ghraib will look like a tea party when we're done with OBL.
Matt, judging from comments at Protein Wisdom, your explanation is gaining traction. There is a compelling issue here for me that some have touched on: the pure intellectual dishonesty, inconsistency, and hypocrisy of the MSM and left re: what constitutes the WOT, the end of the WOT, and the legitimate goals of the WOT.
They have:
1) whined that we haven't caught UBL but pulled resources from the hunt for him to make illegal war on Iraq which had no connection to 9/11 (I disagree with that BTW)
2) whined first that we didn't catch Saddam; then INSTANTLY ignored and downgraded the importance after we did (also tried to delegitimize our forces' role in the capture)
3) simultaneously accused W of making America less safe (by presumably causing many more UBLs to be created) while defining the end of the WOT as the capture/snuffing of UBL, thus denying the existence of an entire terrorist infrastructure separate from UBL. IOW, we've created more terrorism/there's no terrorism without UBL. This is pure insanity brought on by BDS.
They want it all ways, and all internally inconsistent and mutually exclusive ways as well. W has denied them a potent weapon by not announcing the vaporization of UBL. In spite of their claims of greater danger/greater terrorist threats/less safety due to our warlike ways, they would instantly claim an end to the WOT were UBL to be declared or proven dead. We captured Saddam and it has been an endless whining about his victimization and persecution ever since. Why rush to play into their hands again? Whatever W's reasons, and I find the arguments compelling, I think it's a good tactic. We're in a war also against a corrupt, reflexively leftist ideology on the part of the MSM and their ilk, and the best strategy is never to give them what they want except for rope-a-dope purposes.
I also find Johnc's argument extremely persuasive and sensible. I just think several purposes actually are served by not addressing UBL's fate.
And I have to disagree with you, Steve. Or rather, your rationale. I do assent to your point about the risk to Bush, as well as your frustration, but years ago it was a great decision. Even in hindsight it remains a smart choice. It allowed Musharaf time to maneuver his position vis a vis the ISI traitors and galvanized public support among his own population who also fear intrusive Arab interference in their internal affairs. The world was outraged, the face of terror was Bin Laden and the will of America intimidated even the most ardent Taliban in his own country. With Bin Laden dead, the case was closed and America was expected to retreat from the region. This decision to allow Bin Laden his life in death was pragmatic as well. Without a body (the habeas corpus problem) even a DNA test would have been scoffed at by the Fisks of the world. His 'death' would have been put in sceptical scare quotes by Reuters. So what's the point? Who needed to hear Dean scream for months: "Bush lied. Who believes that blood splatter is really Bin Laden?" We killed Bin Laden to a degree of probability that any court would accept, though not to absolute, indisputable surety. The irony is we killed him too well, destroying the proof as well.
Most--if not all--journalists I knew in Afghanistan covering the beat after 9/11 believed Bin Laden was dead, especially the lefties from the British press who consistently bombarded this American in Kabul with complaints that Bush was purposely and cynically hiding the death of Bin Laden to remain in Afghanistan without any international philosophical/moral/political opposition. They were damn sure that Bush had outsmarted the world, a world they understood to be hostile to his administration. Without boogey man Bin Laden, these journalists would have unleased the fury of the press on Bush's illegitimate war and our illicit occupation of Afghanistan. Bin Laden 'alive' permits free rein to the US throughout the world; a fair trade for Bush. He loses bragging rights but gains far more. Given the phony righteousness and duplicity of the DNC and its MSM supporters, even if they all agreed OBL was indeed dead, they'd invent another issue to beat Bush with...so what's the loss?
General Harrell seems to agree with you reagrding bin Laden being too much of a media whore to stay quiet. His statement was in effect, "With this type of organization, the head guy is supposed to lead from the front, and we're not seeing that anymore." He also felt that AQ would not want to make his death public, because it wasn't to their benefit.
I agree with you on all counts except one. I believe there are 2 reasons GWB doesn't make this knowledge public.
1) When UBL's death becomes public, there will be a massive power play for his position throughout AQ territories. Unless I miss my guess, auditioning for the job requires competing for the most henious act against the West.
2) Why give the conspiracy theorists anything to work with. (RE: The theory that UBL would be caught right before the election)
I'm not sure it would martyr him. As bad as he looked, I think it's just as likely he died from his medical conditions as from a bunker buster.
And I completely agree with you on the president's leadership. The country's well-being and not his popularity or his "legacy" has always come first. The War in Iraq was proof of that. He certainly didn't do it to increase his popularity. He did it because he thought it was the right thing to do. 4 More years!
(and thank-you for your loyal service as well)
An excellent post Matt. Kudos!
BTW, the very small chance that OBL is indeed in fact alive centers on the possibility that he resides tightly guarded in Iran. That mullacracy is a closed state, typically inaccessible even to Islamic tourists so only they could keep such a secret silent. Compared to Iran, Pakistan has the open borders and free movement of America. OBL would have been outed a dozen times by now anywhere in that state of in Afghanistan. OBL, though it's not widely reported, has innumerable enemies among the Afghans in both that state and in NWFP in Pakistan...places where he is supposedly hiding. He wouldn't be safe there at all. In Iran, it's Bin Laden in a box.
I admire Bush and plan to vote for him but I kind of doubt that the President--wonderful guy that he is--could resist going public with UBL death if he knew. That's "knew" as in conclusive proof. He might have evidence, or strong evidence, and certainly the UBL silence is tantilizing, but given the intelligence errors we've had and the apparent tension between Bush and some quarters of the CIA, and the public cynicism about politics and our intelligence capacity, if I were Bush I would not go public unless I had UBL's head on a pike and a dna test certified by the Pope.
At least not before the election.
Good Blog my friend,
Thank you for your service. I checked your blog from Hewitt's page. Good insight from someone with the credibility of a warrior. He's lizard bait.. The president has many different reasons not to reveal his hand at this point.. His integrity is indeed a liabilty to his re-election yet he chooses to remain silent when in the face of political fire for the purpose of victory. He had my vote, he still has it, and the testimony of America's finest warriors makes me more assured that I know that I am right in believing he is just the right man to lead in the war.. We didn't necessarily want a war, but we will fight.. Let those who are followers follow. Let the leaders lead. Thanks for your blog. I will check it more ofter than I used to.
Dave Evans
Froggy responds to my post with: "Your theory about waiting for Bush to announce his death to appear is ridiculous on its face and is well beyond "weak"."
Froggy should read more carefully: That is not a "theory". It is a possibility, to which I explicitly assigned low probability. But not zero probability. The probability that my house will burn down is very low. Nonetheless I buy insurance against same, because the costs, if it were to occur, would be disastrous, if I had no insurance. (As a matter of fact, my house did recently burn down, and I did have insurance, and I am thus still extant and kicking.) The risk that pig Laden is not yet humping the Virgins in Paradise is simply too great to incur -- the risk that would arise, politically, if the Bushies tried to "out" his transport into said Paradise, and it turned out not to be true. That risk is too great unless it is a "Hail Mary" shot -- a desparate attempt to try any long shot that might rescue a failing bid for re-election. But that is far from the facts on the ground. The publicly reported polls look, overall, comfortable for Bush. At this stage he needs no "damn the consequences" dramatic initiative. Quite the contrary.
Amidst all this speculation, a realistic alternative has been ignored. (Perhaps it has been canvassed in reponses prior to this: I haven't read them all.) It could be that we didn't completely fry pig Laden in Tora Bora, but severly wounded/incapacitated him. He might be hiding amongst friendlies in the Afgan/Pak border region, but so isolated and/or incapacitated that he is unable to exercise effective control over AQ, or make his extantness know, world-wide. Or he may fear to do so, in a manner (other than video-tapes) which would alert us to his actual locale. He certainly understands, if he swims not yet amongst the Virg.. oops, I mean the fishes.. that anything he does that gives us a clue as to his acutal GPS coordinates will invite a Tomahawk missile thru the rear window, if not SOF forces at the door.
yr obt srvt,
Ben Crain
Bush got important feedback on the possible effect of OBL's death on the Democratic party and its allied MSM when OBL's obiturary was printed in Egypt's largest daily (on the full front page) and broadcast on Al Jazeera. The Islamic press had journalists in the field with eyewitnesses quoted in their reports. The western MSM yawned, shrugged and said, in effect, 'move on, nothing to see here.'
Had our own media decided to investigate or take the Islamic press at its word, this would now be a dead issue. Bush couldn't have affected the story at all--it was now in the hands of the media and everything but the White House spin would have been out of his control. The potential of tremendous praise for Bush on this extraordinary success was simply too much to countenance, so the MSM passed on the story.
I must say I have thought that UBL is dead many times. It would really make more sense that he would be dead and that is why President Bush did say he wasn't worried about UBL. I always thought after he said that, that UBL had to be dead because I just could not see our president not being concerned about where UBL was unless he A)knew exactly where UBL was, even though he said he didn't or B)knew UBL was dead which would also mean he knew where UBL was.
I think though that President Bush keeps up the pretense that he thinks UBL is alive so the terroists keep doing stupid things we will blame on UBL, but gets them caught. After all, we have caught most of his people.
I hope this makes sense. It is almost 1am and I am up waiting for my husband to get home from work 
I really enjoy your comments Matt and thank you for your service. All five of my children are better off because of people like you are out there keeping this country safe for them to grow up free.
Ben,
Sorry about your house. You have missed some extremely incisive comments from Johnc and you really should take a look. I don't know who he is but he's got me more convinced about what I was already convinced of. Any situation can be "what iffed", and the scenario that you seem to want to hang onto is more of a AQ fairy tale to keep the little ones at the Madrassa quiet.
My point is that Bush has known for 3 years, and as many have commented, there is no good reason to kill the boogeyman when his death would mean intense pressure to "bring our boys home". Bush has placed success in the GWOT above election politics and that cannot be denied. Froggy
"This kind of integrity and committment stands in stark contrast to his opponent." Sobering observation. You confirm my thoughts on this as well. Superb piece. I'm adding you to my blogrol tonight!
Interesting comments, but the facts point the other way. Bin Laden has been positively ID'd by the intel community as late as spring of this year on audiotapes distributed through the media (al-Jazeera and al-Aribiyah). Sure, no video lately but he's out there -- as is Zawahiri. As for his burning desire to stay in the spotlight, careful you're not mirroring what you would do instead of using his past record to predict -- bin Laden has a history of going to ground and he has long stated that what happens to him doesn't matter. On the US side, one can argue either way whether the official de-emphasizing of the importance of UBL's capture/death was properly handled -- I personally don't think it was -- but nonetheless, either way it isn't part of some dark conspiracy to keep the news quiet. I'd recommend "Through Our Enemies Eyes" by Anonymous (a senior intel community official)...the most insightful open-source piece yet on UBL and AQ.
Froggy's claim: "Bush has known for 3 years, and as many have commented, there is no good reason to kill the boogeyman when his death would mean intense pressure to "bring our boys home". Bush has placed success in the GWOT above election politics and that cannot be denied."
(1) It is probably true that the boogeyman is dead. As outsiders we do know what the gov thinks it knows, and can only speculate based on what is publicly known. What is publicly known suggests, with large probability, that UBL is dead. But it is not conclusive.
(2) The issue is why the Bush administration does not claim that UBL is dead. Froggy wants to accredit the Bushies with (a) certain knowledge that UBL is really dead; (b) admirable discipline in not proclaiming same, because said reticence advances our overall strategic objectives -- though at the short-run political costs of having no response to the dem's Tora-Bora charge, and not reaping the political advantages they would enjoy form having killed off the bastard -- for which reason said discipline is all the more admirable.
(3) My point does not denigrate in any way the Bushies handling of this issue. It is simply to note there are other possibilities, and other reasons, why they would not trumpet UBL's probable demise: (a) They may not be confident that it is really true. (b) If they are, they don't have proof that would withstand the media skepticism/firestorm that would meet any such claim. (c) They could really, really, be burned if it turned out not to be true. (d) In light of the above, the most prudent course, absent any need for a desparate, non-prudent course, is to remain abnostic, to make no such claim. (c) There is no need, in the present political situation, for a non-prudent course. (d) Prudence, absent any need for a desparate long-shot, is a highly admirable, and deeply conservative, virtue, and the Bushies should be congratulated for adhering to same.
(e) Whether or not UBL assumed room (or Tora Bora)temperature on or shortly after the assault on Tora Bora is really a minor issue. The US election will not turn on it, the GWOT will not turn on it (even if K wins: conclusive proof about UBL would have no relevance to Iraq. K. would likely bring the troops home from Iraq anyway). Very likely we will never know, with unimpeachable certainty, the day and hour, and causes, of pig Ladens transport into Paradise. But with absolute certainty, by the time the GWOT is definitely over (say, 20-30 yrs from now), UBL will be dead. But, hey, so will I, I being more-or-less of the same age cohort.
yours in looming deadness,
Ben Crain
wow! great blog, excellent commentary, I intend to put you on my reading list. The point you make about how unselfishly George W leads needs to made in more public forums.
thanks for your service
I have a basic question, having only skimmed through these posts. I seem to recall that bin Laden released some audio commentary after the Afghani rout that contained contemporaneous references that would place him after the fall of Afghanistan. And I thought I also remembered that a bin Laden tape surfaced and the CIA (or somebody of similar Secret Squirrel level) gave a "probable" confirmation of his voice print. Am I wrong?
Read the comments Edo.
Please! Do you really think that announcing UBL as deceased would make a difference for Bush? Keep dreaming.
Remember, Bush commanded an army that *failed* to get UBL when they had the chance.
Also, **10's of thousands more recruits to terrorism** have joined th ranks in UBL's name (read the Arab, European, and Far Eastern press for some perspective on this). Why? Because we attacked Iraq!
Get real - your analysis is self-serving and shallow. UBL is dead? Who cares? Either way he trumped Bush because Bush fell right into his slimy terrorist hands.
Lastly, go read the classics on terror and revolution. Go read what they say about creating fear and uncertainly in the mind of your enemy. UBL hooked Bush, and landed him on the boat. Sorry to say that, but it's true.
You'd better hope Bush doesn't get re-elected, or this war, and our country will suffer further incompetence from a man who is absolutely unable to deal with 'difference' and nuance.
I agree that the president cares more about the WOT than his own reelection (as opposed to his opponent), and I would agree that he suspect OBL is gone. But your calculus than OBL dead would benefit Bush politically is far from obvious to me. Once OBL is gone there is going to be a great movement in the US to put this whole tragic episode behind us and "move on". Never overestimate the attention span of the American public - they're not all patriotic conservos. And OBL getting vaporized at Tora Bora would make him a loser at least as much as a martyr among the Islamics, especially with Bush's continued strong hand in the ME.
I just don't think it's as cut and dried as your powerful commentary suggests. It is possible, though, that the announcement of OBL's demise as a late October Surprise would usher Bush back into the WH.
An excellent pieace of writing.
I think he's dead. When I was at medical school many years ago, before effective renal dialysis was routinely available, one would see patients with chronic renal failure. There's an alteration to skin tone and soft tissue configuration; this is probably caused by osmotic changes due to uraemia. And that's how OBL looked in his last broadcast. He was a very sick man.
Ben B
with all due respect...what a nonsense...if you are a Republican...that does not include the right to be so poorly informed...many vidoes were displayed since (!!!) Tora Bora - in AL Jazeera- no one ever regarded them to be fakes- I am sorry
As to the query from Froggy, I've lived and worked with the Afghans since the 1980s, when I trained the mujahideen. (And we all lived in same neighborhood as Bin Laden for six or seven months.) I've got a couple of books relating to my work in Afghanistan.
Great post. I especially commend the part about him being "shat out as turds by scavenging animals"... Wonderful prose and imagery.
I think you are right. UBL is dead. Kerry "nailed" Bush in the debate when he referred to a quote by W, saying he wasn't worried about bin Laden, hadn't thought about him. W said that about a year ago. Maybe that coincides with when they determined he was dead.
Very well put. Without "politically correct" restrictions, you make your points quite dramatically. THANK-YOU for the insight - never thought of it!
I tend to favor the notion that UBL's death is under wraps. Further I suspect that they were not able to confirm it 100%. Or, they figure that it's easily refuted with propaganda in the Islamo facist world. RE: Halliburton. All you have to do is say that word in the presence of leftists and they foam at the mouth, facts be damned. [On a side note if you research Occidental Petroleum to Gore and the Clinton administration, or Jamie Gorelic and John Deutch, as a board members of Halliburton competitor, Schlumberger, you get a good feel for the hipocracy of the left on this Halliburton propaganda. Ref: http://investorcenter.slb.com/ir...slb&
script=2260 ]
I would add that making UBL a martyr is a bad idea incorporating Pakistan with emphasis. My view has always been that Pakistan is the real problem spot.
I believe that this Islamo facism is more about oil and personal power derived thereof than it is about some return to ancient Islamic mores. They can do that now on an individual level. Nobody stops them in any of the areas where they and their recruits reside! It was Pakistan that annexed Afghanistan with the Taliban. It was their own private incubator. Why have we/they not extricated the terrorists from the tribal border areas of Pakistan/Afghanistan? There can be only one answer. It's risky to the stability of the Pakistan government. Our worst nightmare is for Isalmo Facists to get their hands on Pakistan's nukes. UBL is a hero of epic proportion in Pakistan. Maybe even enough to tip the balance of moderation over radicalism in Pakistan. This is one scenario where Bush would gladly give up his power to
in lieu of a catastophic event in Pakistan.
Pakistan is the key operating area of Al Qaeda. That is where they still train and do logistics. It also is within easy reach of the Caspian Sea areas where the new major oil supplies are being exploited. The other key area of oil supply is Africa. Exxon has discovered some tremendous reserves in the off the coast of Africa. These just happen to be the same Regions where Al Qaeda is agressively pursuing their agenda. Oil is America’s weakness and Al Qaeda knows it. Iraq is the key to oil security for America because it acts as a counter balance to Saudi Arabian supply. So which Al Qaeda motivation comes first, reconstruction of ancient Islam, or power and wealth from controlling key world oil supplies? I’m betting on the oil. If they get that, in their minds, they will have the other.
Vanyogan
I agree UBL is most likely dead. And I agree, GWB is the man for this time and should be re-elected.
This whole debate points up one of the difficulties this President, has in dealing with secrets; sometimes, it is in the best interest of the people for them not to know all of the facts. This, no doubt, sounds counter to a free society, but is in fact a truism, and works to benefit of the general good. It is also common sense, for if anone can know everything, then every enemy knows everything as well. So, withholding certain information becomes a security measure that all citizens should acknowledge as necessary, even desired. We have to rely on our elected leaders to determine which facts would present the potential for harm if widely known and for them to then determine whether we do, or don't need to know them. This becomes a superpartisan matter, as both sides have to, and do, make these choices, national security does transcend politcal persuasion; and any President who says he never had to make such choices is, truly, lying.
That being said, I wish, (that after Teresa Heinz had charged that the White House would probably produce UBL just before the election to sway the vote), I wish the White House had used that entry to produce whatever evidence they have which indicates that he is dead, even if it is circumstantial; it would have been an opportunity to pivot from the Dems charge that we left Afganistan too soon, and at the same time could have been used to point up that the terror threat excedes UBL's control and planning, thus, now is no time to back off in the GWOT.
All we have got since 2001 are bad quality audio tapes, no video!
Some are arguing that they are enough to prove he is alive because they have been authenticated by by US intelligence, but as I posted earlier, Swiss experts are confident that they are NOT bin Ladin!
I would like to see an accurate poll on how many Americans believe he is D-E-A- D. Many Americans still don't buy that Saddam had no WMD, I don't.
Bottomline: The audio tapes do not prove Osama is alive, but to the contrary are evidence that he is not.
As long as we are willing to entertain X-Files grade conspiracies, I'm surprised that nobody has offered scenario X: Osama spent the last few years in a jail cell in Langley, Virginia, playing nintendo.
We didn't advertise it so that we could act on intelligence obtained when he talked in his sleep.
After awhile, it just seemed "too late" to come out and say, "we've had him for awhile now... then he died of syphilis..."
Actually, we have gotten video since 2001 -- spring of '02, then audiotapes after that. And as for your 'Swiss experts' -- I'm not sure that the Dalle Molle Center for Perceptual Artificial Intelligence (located in lovely Lausanne), that offered an equally serious opinion of a photo-shopped image of a naked UBL on a beach, quite racks up there as a crack analyst team.And that episode where they offered their opinion of the audiotape was back in '02. Again, spring of '04 he was ID'd again. Face it folks, he's alive, he's operating on a timeline measured in decades whereas all of us westerners are in a microwave-ready mentality.
More importantly, the worldwide insurgency has moved beyond him -- capturing or killing him would still be a big success, but there is much more to it (as we all know). So -- continue to look for dark conspiracy theories, or nuanced political theory, but I think that Occam's razor applies here -- simplest explanation is that he's alive, somewhere in the mountainous area of the Northwest Frontier of Pakistan.
Great post Froggy.
I'd like to believe UBL is taking a dirt nap, recognizable only as scavenger excrement, but what about the reports from people like Richard Miniter and Monsoor Ijaz that UBL was seen last October in Iran?
If the reports that UBL is jaundiced, which is seen as a curse by Allah, and he's changed his appearance to look like an Iranian mullah are true, might this explain his absence?
If he were in Iran, wouldn't it be in Tehran's greater interest to keep this quiet as not to interfere with their grander schemes?
Your logic is sound, to be sure, but there seems to be credible evidence that UBL is vacationing in the Iranian countryside, perhaps recuperating on dialysis.
Of course it’s always possible that the Iranian intelligence officers are taking a page out of the Ahmad Chalabi playbook and making up UBL tales for fun and profit. It’s clearly in the opposition’s interest to do so.
That said, your take on President Bush is spot on and I certainly hope you're right about UBL.
Cheers,
Bill
Interesting post. If I may, there is another possibility: If UBL is declared dead, then JFK gets to declare (falsely, IMO) "mission accomplished" and further question what we are doing in Iraq in the first place.
I am willing to wait longer for history to resolve itself in exchange for keeping the pressure on in Iraq.
I find Froggy's argument that Osama pig Laden is dead to be quite pursuasive.
He's changed my mind, at least. Which in no small way makes me feel much better about our progress. It's always a major success when the top guy of a dictatorial movement is dead.
Two points if I may.
From the pictures and testimony from the CNN medical doctor froggy linked to, it would appear to be just as likely that the pig died from his illness rather than from a bomb. It's hard to make a martyr out of a sickly girly-man plugged into a machine.
Second, the evidence that President Bush has is mostly the passage of time with no real-time video from the pig. So he doesn't necessarily have anything "hard" to go on to make an announcement from. Meanwhile, the percentage of AlQaeda leadership that the Special Forces and others are racking up gradually increases.
Thank you, froggy, for making my day and week. [And thank you for your service to our country!]
brightwinger
A small, niggly off-topic post.
A previous poster used the initials JFK in reference to Kerry. In my first reading of the post, I plugged in John F. Kennedy's name.
Because despite Kerry's unfortunate initials, there is only one 'JFK.!'
Kerry isn't even a virtual JFK in the minds of us who recall the real one.
Maybe from now on, we could start using lower case letters for the fake jfk. That way we will all know who it is we are talking about, and be giving jfk the respect he deserves.
Deleted my comment? No room for a dissenting voice? Keeping it fair and balanced, I see. O'Reilly would be proud.
8zero8,
Offer dissent instead of invective and your comments will stay. BTW this isn't O'Reilly, this is MY blog, and if you don't like it, then post it to your blog. I have no obligation to leave your comments up so that you can feel good about making a crack on someone's work. I never claimed to be fair and balanced, I claim to be a frogman with an opinion, if you don't like it, blow me. Froggy
"...if you don't like it, blow me."
You can take the guy out of the Teams, but you'll never take the Teams out of the guy!
Still think UBL is alive.
Cheers,
Frog6
And your proof is Forgp? Your feeliings? Heh.
Nope, my proof is the audiotapes that have been generally accepted by the intel community as being UBL (Swiss esoteric institutes not counted among this group, as an earlier poster used for his certification that UBL is dead). The kidney thing is old news -- not proved through any debriefs/interrogations or other intelligence. It is most likely he is still alive, and the tapes that have been coming out are the most definitive evidence that exists. Why no video is up for interpretation, but believe me -- as I said in an earlier post -- the majority of those who are working this every day, very closely, believe he is alive.
Intresting read....good theory...very plausible....
Is it true...who knows....I give UBL the benefit of the doubt and believe he may be alive.....although either wounded from Tora Bora or gravely ill because of his illness....
One reason is the disputed audio tapes and videos released with his (presumably) voice on it.....
But one also has to remember that al-Qaida has its own video production crew....so it is conceivable they spliced old audio together....
I can agree..if true ....Bush's reasons for not making his painful death (hopefully) public...and the Left's almost robotic venomious rhetoric crying foul afterward....
regardless of my opinion on this theory....its a pretty solid idea....
.........Kudos Froggy!
Terlizzi999
Politically speaking, it is almost impossible for Bush to announce that Osama is dead, unless he has DNA evidence to prove it. It would make him vulnerable to Osama if by some chance he were alive, and if Osama wasn't, there is always the chance that a faked tape could be released right before the election to hurt Bush.
I think you're right. I also think Bush won't ever declare him dead without irrefutable proof.
Great post! I've been trying to emphasize this as well, especially as I was watching the first debate.
Everyone kept saying that Bush looked mad...but to me, his expressions belayed the sense of PURE FRUSTRATION that he would feel being hammered by Lurch, knowing that he could slam-dunk that punk with the facts, but realizing that it was NOT in the country's best interest to do so.
Look back at that debate with that thought in mind, and it all makes MUCH more sense.
Excellent post! And I also note that if Bush released anything stating that Osama was dead, the entire left and even some of the right would consider the GWOT over. They've been told so many times that Osama is the one-and-only target, so if we said "we got him", any further expense of energy toward defeating radical Islam would be seen as even a bigger waste than it is today.
Can you image the field day Kerry would have if we admitted that Osama's been dead since 2001? He'd claim that the entire invasion of Iraq was unnecessary and a waste of (at least) 1000 lives. Political suicide for Bush.
As any thinking person knows, the war on terror is against an ideology, not a person. To defeat that ideology we need an example or two that democracy and Islam can co-exist. To admit that Osama is dead would shut down efforts to democratize Iraq - at the very least - which would ensure the rise of other Osamas in the future. Bush is clearly in this for the long haul and not for his political health, which is why I believe he deserves our support more than ever.
"The last known video tape from bin Laden was aired in September by the Arabic all-news television station al-Jazeera. Three audio tapes followed, in October, December[2001] and January[2002]." (source AFP article Feb.22, 2004)
So much for your spring 2002 video dude, unless you consider January spring.
Also note that those were the dates that the videos 'aired' not the date of creation.
The Tora Bora assult was mid Dec. 2001,
I believe Osama was criticly wounded, and the January video made shortly after. It is obvious that there is something wrong with him in that final video. Intelligence experts who examined noted that his left arm appeared immovable and speculated he had been partially incapacitated.
He looked like he was dying and never said one single word.
Why would he not say ONE word?
He is dead.
Zawhiri did all the talking in the video and has done it all in every video since.
I thought that last video was a lame attempt to show Osama survived Tora Bora, he did not, but he did survive long enough to be proped up by a stick and make one last pathetic attemt at a video.
Correction: The tapes I wrote about above are audios
This from the BBC July 20 2004.
SHADOWY FIGURE [Osama]
Born in Saudi Arabia
Fought against Soviets in Afghanistan
Ploughed inherited fortune into armed activities
Reported to have at least three wives
Suffers from kidney disease
Last video message broadcast December 2001
Whereabouts unknown
Last message video Dec. 2001 [BBC]
That makes it more likely that he died at Tora Bora,
There were in the spring of 2002 videos of him in the mountains that DO NOT show him speaking but that have an unshown narrator speaking.
Why would he show himself on video in the mountains and let a narrator give a dubed over message? Those were old videos with a new message dubed over by someone else to convince or confuse people as to his state.
Mid Dec. 2001 is where the trail stops.
Sorry, but only the video trail stops in mid Dec 2001. There are audiotapes -- accepted by the US, British intel communities -- as UBL.
I noticed that Froggy posted a "Fake Tapes" link that includes stirring analysis from some French phonetics institute (huh?) as well as the famous crack Swiss analyst team that just as seriously "analyzed" the Photoshop image of a naked UBL on a beach.
Folks, UBL is alive -- though the fact that there have been no videotapes lately is a subject worthy of debate, whether or not he's alive really is settled. Unless, of course, you choose to believe our staunch allies the French and the Swiss (whose primary talent appears to be looking the other way when nefarious elements do business through their country). Seriously, post a reputable dispute to the audiotape issue rather than this stuff.
The kidney ailment theory was dropped long ago, so no need to project lifespan based on failed dialysis due to no electricity in the cave...
And by the way, as I noted before, whether or not UBL is alive or dead is immaterial -- the defensive jihad that he started in the late 90's is flourishing, and he has repeatedly stated that it matters not what happens to him. The insurgency among Muslims who have heeded AQ's call is the issue.
I'll throw in one more divisive comment, paraphrased from 'Through Our Enemies' Eyes' -- the Muslim insurgents do not hate us for what we are, they hate us for what we do. We need to get that through our heads if we're going to address and defeat this threat.
Cheers
Frog6
The dialysis theory was dropped by whom? Maybe by some, but he sure looks like a very sick man in his last video -- far different than the way he looked in the video of him a year or less earlier. The difference between the two vidoes is striking.
A physician for CNN noted that the 'pig' looked like he had the signs of someone who was seriously ill with possible kidney disease and/or diabetes.
That coupled with the absence of any credible evidence of his existence makes his death a real possibility.
As for the idea that our experts have said certain tapes were indeed from pigLaden, it might not mean much. Rumsfeld is on record saying that we will put out false information when it serves the war effort.
When a tape with the pig's voice appears, it is possible that some of his followers would be tempted to call their fellow piglets -- which could enable us to pick up their signals and to 'capture' them.
I don't know for certain that pigLaden is dead, but it seems to be a very real possibility and maybe more than that.
I find the arguments that Osama Bin Laden is dead to be very persuasive, and I've believe that for a long time. Assuming he's dead, and that the U.S. government knows he is dead (or at least believes there is an extremely high probability that he is dead), the question boils down to why his death has not been announced.
There have been a lot of good comments on this thread. Let's summarize the possible reasons for concealing his death versus revealing his death:
POSSIBLE REASONS FOR CONCEALING OBL'S DEATH:
1. Lack of DNA-level proof that OBL is dead.
2. Many people, especially in the Muslim world but also in America, greatly mistrust the U.S. government such that they would not even accept purported DNA evidence as proof of OBL’s death.
3. Protect Musharaf for his cooperation with U.S. in fighting Al Queda, such cooperation being justified by U.S.'s revenge motive.
4. Slight risk that OBL is still alive and would gain enormous prestige by revealing himself after a U.S. announcement to the contrary.
5. Strong tactical and intelligence reasons immediately after his death for concealing it and exploiting his disappearance. By now it would be difficult to explain a three year delay, especially if it was announced right before the election.
6. Many Americans would use it to declare victory and claim that the Global War On Terrorism was over.
7. OBL’s martyrdom might attract more Al Queda recruits; leaving him in limbo does not have that effect.
8. Elvis factor – there’d be endless sightings and rumors and reports (often bolstered by fake video and audio recordings) that OBL secretly lived. Each such report would find willing believers among potential terrorist recruits and supporters, who would be convinced that the U.S. was lying about OBL’s death.
9. Allows new terrorist to be elevated to position of official Al Queda Leader, with concommitent prestige and authority.
10. Risk that official announcement of OBL’s death would be a trigger for sleeper cells to implement new suicide attacks.
POSSIBLE REASONS FOR REVEALING OBL'S DEATH:
1. Enhance Bush’s re-election prospects.
2. Encourage Americans that we are winning War On Terrorism.
3. Undermines Al Queda morale to know for sure that their hero is dead.
4. A power struggle among aspiring terrorists for Al Queda leadership might break out.
NOW LET'S WEIGH THE PRO'S AND CON'S OF ANNOUNCING OBL'S DEATH:
A few of the potential reasons for concealing his death are rather weak. For example, I doubt that there are still deep-cover sleeper cells out there which will spring into action upon OBL's death. (Although that might have been a much more serious fear three years ago.)
On the other hand, MOST of the potential reasons for revealing his death are extremely weak. I doubt that it would have that much effect either way on American or Islamofacist morale, certainly not enough to justify an announcement. Power struggles among survivi
[CONTINUATION]
...Power struggles among surviving Al Queda figures are probably an on-going process, and they would already know that they aren't being directed by OBL.
The singular remaining major reason to reveal OBL's death is purely a political one: It would be worth 2 to 5 percentage points in the Presidential race (especially after Kerry's Tora Bora attacks), and would likely seal Bush's victory.
So when you place everything on the scales, the overwhelming weight is on the side of concealing OBL's death, even if we don't happen to guess right about the SPECIFIC reason for doing so. One or several of those reasons are probably corrrect.
And I agree, President Bush deserves considerable credit for not allowing his personal political future to be the thumb on the other side of the scale which outweighs everything else.
I would agree that UBL is dead. I approach this based upon UBL's situation in 2001, my own experience as a climbing guide for people from all walks of life, and the biology and physics of operating and staying warm in the mountains.
In the last good video we have of UBL it is December, 2001. He is thin, tired, and the men around him look the same. We know he has kidney disease which messes up his body chemistry, making it hard for him to process wastes from his bloodstream. Temperatures in Afghanistan at night hit 10-20 below and get to 30+ during the day in the winter.
Consider that he is an old man, of large frame - which means he loses heat easily and needs more food, with kidney disease, living at higher altitude. Its winter. If we place him in Tora Bora or nearby, then he has to hike over 200+ miles with total elevation change of 100,000 feet to get out. That is nothing for a fit man with adequate food and water, but for a thin, old man in average shape with kidney disease, its an impossibility.
Furthermore, the caloric uptake for one of UBLs body size in order to maintain oneself in that environment and the very real possibility that UBL's body probably was incapable of properly metabolizing even his maintenance intake for that alitude and winter environment, means he was on a downglide from the moment winter set it.
Without proper shelter at low altitude, just sitting still, he would need 3000-4000 calories per day to keep his body weight steady. To move, he would need 200 calories per mile plus 200 calories per 1000 feet altitude change. Plus being outside in the weather would raise his caloric needs further. Even if he had fit, fed porters to carry him, they would be able to make at most 10 miles a day. In the videos I do not see down jackets, or other proper garments to stop most heat loss. He was definately losing heat.
Once his body fat fell below a certain percentage, then his downglide would accelerate - because he could not keep warm. As his body accelerated its use of body fat and muscle mass, the waste products would surge in his body. He would become more ill, eating less, and not drinking enough. he would become incapable of making good decisions and would eventually be unable to travel very far even if carried.
Lets say he had 5% body fat on a 180 pound frame in December 15, 2001. Lets assume means that he will be immobile at 2% body fat and dead at 1%. So 3% of 180 is about 6 pounds of fat or about 22,000 calories in body reserve. Assume he can eat 2000 calories with his kidney issues and the effect of altitude. That means he had a deficit of 1000 calories a day just for maintenance. So his ability to move around on Dec 15, 2001 was about 22 days and his death would occur sometime thereafter.
If UBL did not get to shelter, then UBL and his buddies became immobile sometime in January and they watched him die sometime at the end of that month.
If they did reach shelter say January 10, UBL wa
Thank you so much for this posting.
Rather than just freezing to death, I prefer to think of UBL as 'A gross abstract cave painting' (to borrow a comment I saw somewhere else)
I can live without absolute knowledge that he is dead, because I too don't want some martyr effect to be triggered for his maniac followers.
Thanks for laying out the goods for us, Froggy!
You may be right, Froggy. I hope you are.
But, man, you've got to do something with the color scheme of your blog! Green is good, but not as a background color when a lot of reading has to be done!
(ribbit)
Hmmmm,a great article (most likely correct)and 97+ comments. WOW! And liberal's still looking for a wedge issue with President Bush's failure to find, kill, DNA, and photo the pig, Osama.
Even with that done liberals would still annouce " its all a scam you must have voice imprints with this body"! Can you hear Al Gore with his new voice saying, "..this President has tried to fool the American people again..."; Jimmy Carter saying, "..we need another rescue into Tora Bora, to get the real OBL". (yeah, Jimmy we would let you do another one of those? NOT. Go stroke your peace prize and e-mail Yasser)The bottom line is, if the pig is dead - it makes no difference to the democrats as evidenced in there comments.
Since the Tora Bora operation was "outsourced" it is not important to democrats or Kerry. Ignoring the honor, courage, and conviction of our special ops troops during that mission is only one more reason Kerry is Unfit For Command.
S/F Les
Frog6-
You seem to have so much confidence in "the intelligence community".
I am so happy to read your theory and be able to pass it on. I have been nursing this theory since Tora Bora and every day that passes I believe it more. Thanks for your straightforward and dramatic approach to your reasoning.
So lets call it a probable fact, not a theory.
Consider yourself bookmarked!
allyk,
I don't have confidence in "the intelligence community", since that entity has been amazingly off in some of its assessments...I'm relying more upon personal experiences over the past few years mixed with the opinions of individuals whom I respect that are involved in this stuff day to day. There are lots of interesting conceptual "what ifs" posted here that largely reflect the discussions that have reverbed around the block in the last few years -- but are all ultimately based on assumptions that are discounted by evidence like the audiotapes that have been released by both UBL and Zawahiri to the open press. Again, I'll recommend 'Through Our Enemies' Eyes'...admittedly, there has been official dissent...a French phonetics institute and a Swiss group whose claim to fame was a crack analysis of a naked photo of UBL on a beach...but they don't hold much water.
Again -- not an endorsement of the IC writ large, but a belief in the facts that sit out for all to see...
Cheers,
Frog6
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Great post, I've been thinking along those lines for some time now... Good blog. Keep it up, and thanks for your service to freedom
CAUTIONARY NOTE:
Hitler never made a public appearance
after Stalingrad. Megalomaniacs evi-
dently don't want to show face after
losing face.
Frog6: You could be right. But about those audiotapes--I seem to recall various intel spokesmen affirming that it really was ObL's voice. They were coy on the question of whether these were remixes.
PureData: "Consider that he is an old man"--it doesn't alter your essential point, but ObL, if alive, is 47.
frogsneph: I think the bad man's probably dead, but your point is excellent, and should be borne in mind.
Bush never puts his own interest ahead of the country's, unless there's some brush to clear in Crawford. Even when he gets handed a report by the FBI that says "OSAMA DETERMINED TO STRIKE INSIDE THE US!", going fishing is obviously more important. Which terrorists is he putting pressure on? He let them get away -- and has now created their wet-dream of a playground, as well as an endless source of new recruits, while almost completely ignoring our own borders. And I think you need to converse with an economist with your recession claim; it doesn't hold water. Oh, and two separate Govt agencies concluded that Bush's boneheaded "Credit Card Conservative" tax cuts caused about two-thirds of the deficit. You people are in complete. denial. Oh, and Bush is right now giving another country a "veto over our national security" - in Pakistan. Go figure.
alcoholica,
Brush to clear? Fishing? Just how long do you think anyone -- president, top Admin official, SF operative, military commander -- can maintain focus and determination (on anything critical, including war) without downtime? Have you ever left something urgent or critical for a few minutes or hours and then come back to it with a clearer focus or new insights and energy? If not, you are truly unique. I would never begrudge W his downtime and I certainly hope he takes it and enjoys it. Blair, also. I also truly hope our troops are getting the necessary reprieve from action and focus, in order to renew their minds and bodies for the fight ahead.
If you had been pres and handed that cryptic and vague warning about UBL in your PDB in August 2001, exactly how would you have protected the country better? Shut down all ports, airports, closed all borders? Get real.
It is just this kind of petty bullcrap that convinces us how completely unserious and dangerous you and your ilk are.
I'm pretty impressed this thread is still going over a week later! Lots of (good) reverberations out there in the blogosphere...way to go, Matt!
I am relatively new to looking at blogs however I find them to be a better source of news than the networks. Perhaps Fox might be an exception. This blog clearly states what I have been thinking about UBL for some time. I fully agree that UBL would have been "available" for comment if he were still alive. Besides all of that I trust what Bush is doing and I understand the reasoning. Thanks to all who sacrifice for our freedom. God Bless our troops and our CINC.
I get Al Jazeera on my cable system, Osama was quite visible up until about 3-4 months ago - complete with current versions of the New York Times in his hands.
David,
I saw the Tooth Fairy the other night, and in fact, last night the moon turned into a pumpkin. Elvis is going to be spending Christmas with my sister's family this year, and Santa and I are going to the Broncos game next week. BTW only punks don't have the sack to leave an email address when they comment. Froggy
I remember hearing Eric Haney, the Delta Force CSM who wrote that book a couple years ago, mentioning this same thing on the Radio some time between June of 2002 and January of 2003 (Had to be between these times, because I was deployed until June and again after January) saying the same thing and I'm inclined to believe it. What he suggested was the lessened focus on Osama in the months prior to his interview by the Administration, coupled with certain looks that Rumsfeld and Bush were exchanging after reports of a major (and highly suspect) caravan in the Tora Bora region having been bombed in December 2001.
The problem was, having dropped a 2000 pound bomb into this Caravan left not much in the way of remains to confirm that Osama was indeed the target.
I think we got the SOB and I think you're quite correct in your assessment of why Bush won't release that information.
This is plausible, although it shows a great deal of wisdom, if true, on the part of the government, and I can't believe everyone "in the know" is as wise as that. Surely there'd be a leak from someone at some point in the information chain. But anything's possible, especially if the evidence were not 100% clear. Likewise, if we knew Russia had those high explosives, there would be good diplomatic reasons to not advertise that fact until we figure out how to handle it just right. In some ways, Bush is fighting Kerry with one hand tied behind his back on a lot of issues.
Well, maybe not so fast:
http://tinyurl.com/6nuql
Jazeera TV Says to Air Bin Laden Video Tape
Oct 29, 3:09 PM (ET)
DUBAI (Reuters) - Arab satellite television Al Jazeera said on Friday it would broadcast a video tape from al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden addressing the American people.
It said the tape, to be aired at 4 p.m. EDT, would discuss the reasons behind the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks on the United States and their repercussions. It gave no further details.
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George W. Bush is a LIAR, a dictator wannabe, and in my opinion the ANTICHRIST! He has done nothing for our economy, our security, and does not care about the citizens! Unless he plans to wipe out MILLIONS of extreme muslims, he will never win a war on terror! G.W. Bush has become a terrorist, directly responsible for the loss of life of innocent people in Iraq and Afghanistan, the destabilization of the entire middle east, and a rise in terrorist violence.
He has alienated many ally countries, and sparked a global hatred of Americans. Our industries are slumping, jobs are leaving our borders, while illegal immigrants flow in our borders. We are NOT safer! 9/11 might have been preventable, had Bush not ignored the reports. Bush WANTED an attack, Bush WANTED a war (like Bush Sr.), and Bush is using FEAR to manipulate us. He thought he could win the war, but his people planned so poorly, that now he plans to sustain it until he leaves office, leaving the problem to someone else.
We have now lost more soldiers lives in the 'war on terror' than we did during 9/11!! Give this bastard some time, he will invade Iran next. Who knows about N Korea. He is a monster. He is not making the world safer, he is making the world hate us.
America is not the 'world police', and we should not be starting wars with countries/people who cant even reach us with their weapons. If you really believe that killing some terrorists overseas will prevent some from attacking here, you are insane. There are millions of terrorists worldwide! Their numbers are growing, not shrinking, because of what we are doing.
We are losing support globally. The #1 reason for the terrorist threat, is our presence on what they feel is 'their' holy land. If we would mind our own business, secure our own country, and get the hell out of the middle east, we take away their primary reason for attacking us. Should they attack us once we are off their 'property', they become liars and hipocrites, and the world will see that. Then perhaps we could rally support for a global alliance against terrorism.
Bush doesnt want this. he wants all the glory, and to get lots of mention in history books, but he didnt expect the war to be so difficult. Now he just wants to justify it long enough to get out of office. Then it goes from Bush's plan to make the world safer, to the future presidents failure to accomplish Bush's plan.
Simply put, we trashed Afghanistan to try (and failed) to capture one man. We also failed to destory al-qaeda. We trashed Iraq (and continue to make things worse there), to stop one man from using weapons of mass destruction (which didnt exist) on ALLY COUNTRIES! Iraq didnt even have a delivery system that could reach our country. Lives lost, BILLIONS spent, to help protect other nations? Our relations with many of these nations are in the toilet now. We are not the world's protectors. Its not our job to protect or create democracies around the world. We are NOT the richest country in the world, we are the most indebted nation in existence!
Eventually we will manufacture nothing, and our middle management/support jobs will be exported. We will become the world's vacation spot. Their currency will become stronger than ours, so they can come here, vacation, and buy stuff (made in china, do some research sometime... china is buying US debt at a scary pace, they could own "us" someday). We will become "disneyland" to the world. Bush is not helping this country, he is destroying it. I cant believe he has not been impeached already (destroying Iraq for nothing, no weapons of mass destruction). Uncle billy got impeached for a frickin blow job. Reality check!
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