RW writes:
These posts are too long. (lol)
RW | 07.08.07 - 9:29 am | #

Ricardo writes:
Tanta, Thank You.
Ricardo | 07.08.07 - 9:31 am | #

winjr writes:
I remember reading my first UberNerd post. I was so nervous, I thought I'd throw up! But, somehow I got through it and many more UberNerd posts were to follow. Now, we're thinking about settling down, even thinking about having some UnterNerd posts.
winjr | 07.08.07 - 9:45 am | #

Tom Stone writes:
Thank you Tanta,when i start quoting you at parties everyone around me starts gulping the Gin,and i get the pinot to myself.the odd part is their eyes get glazed before they hit the gin?
Tom Stone | 07.08.07 - 9:49 am | #

Bruce Webb writes:
I love it when you talk Uber to me.

Whip me, beat me, make me write a 2/28 with a four point reset and a huge pre-pay. Just because I can.
Bruce Webb | Homepage | 07.08.07 - 9:57 am | #

Tanta writes:
winjr, I was actually thinking about doing an UnterNerd post the other day, but fortunately I got distracted by some shiny object.

CDOs For UnterNerds:

Sliced up mortgages. Swap-thingies, too. Hedge funds buy them. Risky, risky. Leverage. Rating agencies wear army boots. Also, they are "marked" to "something." Be afraid, be very afraid.

However, I discovered that Bloomberg had already done something almost exactly like that, so I didn't post it.

Tom, thanks for the tip. I will buy shares of Tanqueray as soon as the market opens.
Tanta | 07.08.07 - 9:59 am | #

dryfly writes:
Tom, thanks for the tip. I will buy shares of Tanqueray as soon as the market opens.

LOL. Well I didn't make it to 7 G&Ts yesterday... not even close. But I do have a headache this morning, something for the effort I guess.

More proof that Tanta is smarter than dryfly... my unfortunate experiences with gin taught me very little except that I seem to live through them all & not to worry.

Somewhere high in the Canadian Rockies - in country very similar to the picture CR uses for headline banner - is a lake my buddies and I know as 'Lake Tanqueray'... On the map it has another name (can't remember anymore - meaningless to me now)... If I could survive that I can survive anything.

Thanks for the links... tell CR to quit lolligagging & put permanent links in the sidebar... you know, like gospel references at some fundie religious cult site (not that there would be any similarity to us).

dryfly | 07.08.07 - 10:38 am | #

George M writes:
Tanta,

in a 2.5 gallon punch bowl
1 gal. burgundy (cheap stuff)
1 qt. brandy (good stuff)
2 cups orange curaçao
1 jigger bitters
1 qt. vodka (to taste)
1 qt. orange juice
3 oranges sliced thin
1 lemon " "
1 jar maraschino cherries

serves 12 - 18

Your guests can drink this all night and carry on a lucid conversation, on credit spreads or quantum mechanics. But who cares?

G.M.

P.S.
Thank you!
George M | 07.08.07 - 11:33 am | #

Average Joe writes:
I recently began a campaign to begin the "Society for the preservation of UberNerds".

However I ran into two significant road blocks.

First: UberNerds must first be considered "endangered".

Second: Society must consider them worth "preserving".

Since I failed miserably on both key points, I am looking into the feasibility of a "Society for the tolerance of UberNerds."

We shall see.
Average Joe | 07.08.07 - 11:39 am | #

deb writes:
Here's an article in plain-speak that any ubernerd might enjoy...

http://www.portfolio.com/news-ma...lion-Time- Bomb#

About Gen Re exiting their derivitives.
deb | 07.08.07 - 11:40 am | #

number2son writes:
"The Comlpleat Ubernerd"

It has a nice ring. Tanta, you have the title for the book that better damn well come out after all this is said and done.
number2son | 07.08.07 - 11:43 am | #

dryfly writes:
It has a nice ring. Tanta, you have the title for the book that better damn well come out after all this is said and done.

Including hotdish & drink recipes - that's certain to make it a No 1 Best Seller among Ubernerds!

dryfly | 07.08.07 - 12:10 pm | #

God writes:
I did not have time to read this 'complete ubernerd' post. Would anyone please summarize in two sentences what Tanta is talkin 'bout?
God | 07.08.07 - 12:10 pm | #

bacon dreamz writes:
jesus chrits, u guys are drunks. why are u talking about gin and tonic at breakfast time. everyone knows the best breakfast drink is a mai tai!

btw, tanta, one ubernerd post makes up for about 5 brookstreet posts. i start w/ 100% love for tanta, then a brookstreet post brings it down 3%, but an ubernerd increases it 15% of current love balance. any ubernerds that bring it above 100% is OC but unfortunately for u there is no stepdown date. looking at those links it looks like u have maintained the target oc very well on the whole...so u don't have to worry about a downgrade watch...
bacon dreamz | 07.08.07 - 12:17 pm | #

dryfly writes:
I did not have time to read this 'complete ubernerd' post. Would anyone please summarize in two sentences what Tanta is talkin 'bout? - God

Oh sure - you and Moses go up on some mountain and can only distill things down to ten bullets... but you expect Tanta to take something as complex as MBS and foreclosure and distill it down to just two bullets?

Please, cut us mortals some slack, okay?

dryfly | 07.08.07 - 12:41 pm | #

mp writes:
Tanta, please sell me a lock of your hair for my conjure bag. I'm convinced that, if you do, it will improve the ability of my toad bones and ground-up dog balls to predict the turning points in agencies.

I promise to never feed it gin, only small amounts of very dry straight-up vodka martinis.
mp | 07.08.07 - 12:55 pm | #

Tanta writes:
Thanks for the recipe, George, but I don't understand this part:

serves 12 - 18

mp, I've only just had hair again since about March, so I'm not yet ready to remove any of it, even for a good cause. (It's getting so long it's almost not even butch anymore.) Could I just send you some toenail clippings instead?

My favorite summertime recipe:

Bourbon Slurpee

Pour 2 cups boiling water and 4 tea bags into large bowl; steep 5 min. Remove teabags and stir in 2 cups sugar, 7 cups cold water, 2 cups bourbon, 2 6-oz cans frozen limeade concentrate and 1 6-oz can frozen lemonade concentrate. Pour into one or more plastic containers and freeze. I'm told it keeps for a long time.

There are two ways to serve this. One: spoon into crystal julep glasses, garnish with a sprig of mint, and serve with a dessert spoon. Two: spoon into a clean mason jar, stick a long straw into it, and slurp your way into oblivion. I prefer the latter, but some of you may have more couth than I.
Tanta | 07.08.07 - 1:24 pm | #

dryfly writes:
Since we are on favorite summer recipes... My favorite was "Brazilian Iced Coffee"...

-Make some VERY strong dark roast coffee well in advance, let cool - Norwegian Espresso* works just fine.

Add:
-Sugar to taste
-Cream to taste
-Ice (as necessary to keep cold)
-Rum, plenty of this stuff
-Kahlua, some of that too

I prefer a ratio of rum to Kahlua at about 2:1... YMMV.

Mix in a large pitcher. Drink well iced.

A Mexican friend insisted we have cinnamon sugar available too - he'd sprinkle it on top (Mexican Iced Coffee I guess).

Typically what I would do is mix the coffee, rum & Kahlua and set it out with ice, cream, sugar & cinnamon sugar on the side and let folks make their own.

Back in my college daze, my engineering buddies & I would drink a 'number' of these before going out on the town... not much chance of us fading with all that caffeine even as the alcohol tried to pull us down. We were the quintessential image of the 'wide awake drunk'.

I suppose geeks today make Mountain Dew Slushies (vodka, ice, Dew & blend) - I'll have to ask my son... he's powered by Dew.

::::

*FYI 'Norwegian Espresso' - the nasty day old coffee thats sat distilling in the bottom of the drip coffee maker. Often found (and never thrown out) at the homes of people of Norwegian ancestry (My people!!!).

dryfly | 07.08.07 - 1:55 pm | #

Allenm writes:
I guess I have to admit to membership in the ubernerd club.

I gave up having conversations with normal folk about this years ago. Too many folks here in Feenix make their living off of the real estate industrial complex;-}

I did admit to one drink last night for health purposes- but that is is.

I do admit to knowing not only my projected date of demise, but of planning to ensure that I have sufficient resource to live in relative comfort over most of the projected scenarios.

Now, that is part of being an ubernerd. I just don't buy twice differentiable rational expectations models. That makes me a rebel in the profession;-}

Now we can discuss something even more esoteric- the economist this week had an interesting article on the over/undervalution of the dollar vis the Big Mac index. Interesting that the Euro is so overvalued, yet the Yen /Yuan are still quite undervalued.

LTCM bets on convergence, anyone?

Someday this war's gonna end...
Allenm | 07.08.07 - 1:57 pm | #

dryfly writes:
Interesting that the Euro is so overvalued, yet the Yen /Yuan are still quite undervalued.

I'd bet its no surprise to the fine people making up the brain trust at the PBoC & the BoJ. Though Sec. Paulson is probably a bit baffled, no?

dryfly | 07.08.07 - 2:07 pm | #

MaxedOutMama writes:
Tanta, thank you very much for the links. If CR will just put a permanent link to this one post in the side bar, you can add a link to this post each time you dump an UeberNerd on us. Thus Uebers and Unters will be able to live happily together???

As per the Bourbon thang, I think you just lost your NE glittery sophistication. That, my dear, originates well below the Mason-Dixon line, mint, mason jar and all. Not that anyone who starts imbibing the concoction will give a damn about its provenance. The pressing issue is: how on earth did anyone ever figure out it kept well? I've never heard of anyone preserving the stuff.
MaxedOutMama | Homepage | 07.08.07 - 2:29 pm | #

Robert Coté writes:
All hail the Ober Tanta!

Can CR put up some kind of seasonally adjusted graph (not starting at zero to highlight the corellation) showing the inverse relationship between the explosion in Ubernerdliness knowledge dissemination and the implosion of toxic derivative financial instruments? Does advance knowledge of an impending Ubernerd post and using that to short the financial sector constitute insider trading? As to drinking; one word: Kudlow. If that's what sobering up means I'll take my gutter buddies anytime. Pass the ripple.
Robert Coté | Homepage | 07.08.07 - 3:34 pm | #

thoth writes:
Thanks, Tanta, for the uberlist. I agree with another poster that CR should let you list these posts on the sidebar.
thoth | 07.08.07 - 4:22 pm | #

tj & the bear writes:
Reviewing the links I'd found to my pleasure that I had previously read and (mostly) understood all of the ubernerd posts. Obviously all that now stands between me and true ubernerdness is a serious drinking habit.

p.s.: I always thought bloody marys were the preferred breakfast drink?
tj & the bear | 07.08.07 - 5:02 pm | #

Allenm writes:
Robert, EN has turned into quite the zoo with the CS thing- I think you should hive that off to allow your other posts some room to grow on their own.

I know Snowflake is endlessly interesting, but didn't we all know it would end in the trainwreck it has become? Doesn't seem to be much else there unless somebody does a spreadsheet on how much each lender has lost due to his actions. Of course I have zero sympathy for Cashcall- one scammer nailed by another;=]

I only drop in a couple of times a month, and happened to catch the RAH post and thought it deserved better- IMHO.

Back to CR stuff- Paulson is dreaming he can keep all of in the air long enough to allow some of the damage to emerge slowly from our several decades of mismanagement of our fiscal and monetary policies. I don't believe that a lame duck presidency with a war being lost is going to allow us the necessary breathing space. I also don't believe the electorate is going to treat anyone who tells them the truth with kindness- Ron Paul will be zapped by the media long before his message becomes clear to the mainstream folks. Can't do guns and butter without the huge hangover. Hjalmar Schact knew it, and that was the reason why he quit when he did- the hangover was even worse than anyone would have predicted- the Second World War.

The whiz kids running the economic policies under LBJ/Nixon/Ford ended up looking like chumps by the time Carter showed up to hold the bag. WIN strike any bells out there?

Someday this war's gonna end...
Allenm | 07.08.07 - 5:38 pm | #

barely writes:
Oh yeah! Talk about holding a full-o-stinkin'-shit bag. If little darlin that she is Hillary takes the WH and cranks up corp, dividend, cap gains taxes at the same time as the natutal cycle approaches the lows, given the already razor-thin margins and immense leverage, the hang-over is going to be so bad the entire national ecomomy will be on life support for at least an entire administration. Maybe two.

Jimmy Carter will easily be forgotten.
barely | 07.08.07 - 5:50 pm | #

pd130 writes:
Never has mere thanks seems so humble. As I see I'd missed some UberN posts, I get to have more fun, though. Sidebar, and eventual book, yes!

My recipe for >95° weather is a simple-but-elegant 1) Find room/house with working AC; 2) Do not leave it if possible. Such delicious exertions as sangria (I got nothing on anyone here) are for temperatures forming a lower ratio to my own.

But down around 90°, there's always:

Medium dice a pound or two of juicy tomatoes; if you've nothing better to do you can skin and seed them first;
Finely minced garlic and red onion;
Your fav fresh herb. Cilantro, parsley, basil, and dill are all known to work, but flavors intensify, so less or fewer is likely to be more;
Options: diced cucumber, bell peppers, chilis or other fresh hot peppers;
Mix with olive oil and wine/red cider vinegar, maybe a touch of soy sauce or balsamic for depth.
Let it sit in the fridge for an hour or two, after which it will probably be a bit soupy, then think of things to eat with it or use as garnish. Great for sluggish hot weather appetites.
pd130 | 07.08.07 - 6:02 pm | #

lama writes:
Thanks CR and Tanta for everything.
Ubernerds uber alles!
lama | 07.08.07 - 6:11 pm | #

Robert Coté writes:
Robert, EN has turned into quite the zoo with the CS thing- I think you should hive that off to allow your other posts some room to grow on their own.

Yes, yes. Agreed. What started out as an example of what I talk about has taken on its' own life with blogs about my blog, etc. I only continue because I am interested in the meta-aspects; will law enforcement act, will lenders act, will the brokers and lenders and agents who participated get drawn in? The nation's infrastructure consequences are equally going to be interesting at the higher levels. I've already explained that we probably have 4.2 million more houses than we need and those are misallocated as to type and location. When one kid leverages 8x true demand the economy responds to that false signal. The next shoe is hovering; municipal and other govt revenues that have prespent housing boom related revenues. First we'll see COPs; their yield and term. Then we'll see those rolled over into longer term instruments.

Allenm, you are right, I gotta get back to the importanter stuff. I'm waiting for some deep budget on Ahnold's $40bn bond distribution. It is starting to look like a reverse birthday party where everybody gets a present except the taxpayer of honor.
Robert Coté | Homepage | 07.08.07 - 6:11 pm | #

Allenm writes:
So Robert are you brave enough to bail on Kalifornia and leave while the leaving is good? It is only rational to expect future tax rates to head up to the moon as a result of these fiscal follies. How about a 15% income tax rate? Local taxes are going to become onerous in terms of services and costs.

As for municipal/state level finances, a coworker asked me when our next raises would be- my reply on Friday was in two to three years.

She was not amused.

Someday this war's gonna end...meanwhile there is nothing new under the sun, just folks who keep saying this time it's different.

Really....
Allenm | 07.08.07 - 6:19 pm | #

other Jim writes:
It has a nice ring. Tanta, you have the title for the book that better damn well come out after all this is said and done.

Including hotdish & drink recipes - that's certain to make it a No 1 Best Seller among Ubernerds!

Of course the model gracing the cover will have to wear a batwing shirt...or was it the lime-green minidress and shoes to match?
other Jim | 07.08.07 - 6:19 pm | #

tj & the bear writes:
As for municipal/state level finances, a coworker asked me when our next raises would be- my reply on Friday was in two to three years.

She was not amused.

Two to three years? They'll still be laying off people then.
tj & the bear | 07.08.07 - 7:21 pm | #

Robert Coté writes:
So Robert are you brave enough to bail on Kalifornia and leave while the leaving is good?
Yes. I did. I've sold all my nonpersonal use real estate and await events with my for now Prop 13 protected basis. As far as all of Kalifornia, no. I am liquid enough to "escape" but I'm doing good enough to justify waiting for the last lifeboat.

It is only rational to expect future tax rates to head up to the moon as a result of these fiscal follies.

You used rational and Kalifornia in the same thought. For shame. Seriously though, there is no blood left in that stone. 9.3% plus already and 8% plus sales taxes on everything besides.

How about a 15% income tax rate? Local taxes are going to become onerous in terms of services and costs.

Minor correction. Since taxes require votes what will go up will be fees and since fees are only on productive activities the result will be more underground economies and depressed economic activity.

As for municipal/state level finances, a coworker asked me when our next raises would be- my reply on Friday was in two to three years.

She was not amused.

Then you better not tell her about attrition and tiered retirement.

Ahnold is more fiscally irresponsible than Davis. We've collected $87b and spent $99b so far. We've also encumbered another $6-7b in unfunded future liabilities. Not a formula for success. Good news though. LAUSD is about to open their $410 million High School. You can get there on the $360m/mile subway.
Robert Coté | Homepage | 07.08.07 - 7:21 pm | #

tj & the bear writes:
Robert's right (as usual) -- Kalifornia requires a super-majority on new taxes through the legislature. Ain't gonna happen.
tj & the bear | 07.08.07 - 7:24 pm | #

Robert Coté writes:
You know you are an Ubernerd when...

You download an HP-12c emulator for your iPhone.

[okay, everybody play]
Robert Coté | Homepage | 07.08.07 - 7:24 pm | #

Theodore G. Fletcher writes:
We will need hot-dish and drink recipes as the carry trade unwinds, oil peaks and credit bubbles deflate. Sounds like the perfect combination.
Theodore G. Fletcher | 07.08.07 - 7:33 pm | #

Robert Coté writes:
Theodore,
With all due respect. The dishes the people here are planning on serving up are best served cold.

Seriously, "peak oil" cannot have even a tangential impact in a "not expanding" economy. Prices are high because prices are set on the margins and slowing economies kill margin prices. Ask Devaney. Peak oil is a fundamentally flawed theory. Nevermind all the decades of lies by constantly pushing the peak to two years into the future or any of that. The very idea of "running out" of a commodity that can always be manufactured at some price is economic insanity. [Yes, "economic insanity," I repeat myself, stay with me.] The countires that export oil for revenue are playing a very dangerous game. They understand at some level that they aren't selling oil but energy. They also see the costs of alternatives constantly dropping. They also see that when they squeeze too hard the cost of alternatives drops faster. Should oil ever reach $120/bbl so many alternatives are viable that oil could not hold $120. See the peak oil problem? We ran out of $20 oil decades ago. We are running out of $30 oil now. If we ever run out of $60 oil the demand for $80 oil would collapse.
Robert Coté | Homepage | 07.08.07 - 7:48 pm | #

Allenm writes:
Nah, we won't need to lay anybody off at the state- we have been lean after the last *crisis* of 01-03- that combined with an obscene amount of folks eligible for retirement in the next five to ten years will allow attrition to meet our reduction goals. That combined with the poor pay has made us into the employer of last resort, so we have not exactly been able to staff up to what we are authorized, let alone enough to do what we should be doing. But we ain't Kalifornia- no unions, no colas, and everything from the legislature has been fairly small over the last four years.

Now, our knowledge base will unfortunately erode with that 20% plus going out the door over the next five years through retirement, but oh well.

Arizona stands the usual pyramid of employment on it's head- first come most of the municipalities, followed by the counties, and last comes the state.

Of course our top income rates are about 4% and our property taxes are less...but so are our services- try to get welfare or unemployment here and you will see some small benefits indeed. Our sales taxes run just a little less, but no inventory tax and fairly low workers comp depending on the industry.

Only loss is no ocean...everybody has a pool though.

Someday this war's gonna end...
Allenm | 07.08.07 - 7:49 pm | #

Allenm writes:
Tiered retirement just failed at the legislature again. But that too will come- 80 points (age plus years of service) for an early pension is ridiculous to the average 401k worker.

That combined with a couple of escalators means a person can retire at age 55 with 30 years in and receive 69% of their high three pay years for the rest of their life. Kinda makes the low pay worth it if you can go and get a part time job to buy beer and hobby supplies while retired. Of course you have to pay some of it to keep your rather nice health care during those years until medicare kicks in, but some just go and consult right back to where they used to work. Sweeeet indeed. Only thing you have to do is get some supplemental savings because the pension does not have a cola provision, only an excess earnings provision and an occasional boost from the legislature when the cries of the retired workers get too loud.

This is the last of the old fashioned pensions, and it will be interesting to see how long it lasts....

Someday this war's gonna end...
Allenm | 07.08.07 - 7:55 pm | #

dryfly writes:
The very idea of "running out" of a commodity that can always be manufactured at some price is economic insanity.

Yogi was right - predictions are hard to make, especially about the future.

dryfly | 07.08.07 - 10:01 pm | #

dryfly writes:
This is the last of the old fashioned pensions, and it will be interesting to see how long it lasts....

I have family in the same boat - just retired at age 60 with full benies... one federal, one state.

They are the tip of the wave about to crash in. That war you keep talking about better end & quick - they need that money for their retirement.

dryfly | 07.08.07 - 10:06 pm | #

tj & the bear writes:
Peak oil is a fundamentally flawed theory.

Just when I compliment Robert for usually being right he goes and proves otherwise. Sigh.
tj & the bear | 07.08.07 - 10:46 pm | #

mp writes:
Talking about "peak oil" is like venturing into the occult. Pentagrams, chicken blood, spells and all that.

And here I was, thinking I might be misunderstood by asking Tanta for some hair! Little did I know!

Sounds like you guys are in need of an intervention! ;)
mp | 07.08.07 - 11:03 pm | #

Robert Coté writes:
Peak oil is a fundamentally flawed theory.

Just when I compliment Robert for usually being right he goes and proves otherwise. Sigh.

Thanks for the compliment anyway. I learn more from being wrong than being right anyway. Was not my explaination convincing? The peakenese yap all day about finite resources but the Us has extracted more oil since 1975 than was known to exist in 1975 and despite this has more proven reserves than in 1975. If you want some of it for $12/bbl forget it. There's none of that left but there's plenty at $70. Indeed many of the local fields here in Ventura County are reopening for that very reason.
Robert Coté | Homepage | 07.08.07 - 11:07 pm | #

dryfly writes:
Just when I compliment Robert for usually being right he goes and proves otherwise. Sigh.

tj - Rob't has it fundamentally correct but you have to get past the buzz words thrown around on both sides.

We won't run out of energy - we will run short of cheap easily accessible low sulfur light crude. Period. Even that won't run out completely because price increases will push conservation & alternatives before it is all gone.

There will still be other more expensive & hard to process sources of oil and oil equivalents out there... and as prices rise these will be brought into production. The result will be price rationing & resource reallocation.

And don't underestimate the power of prices. As prices increase we'll see substitution - both new forms of energy AND alternative ways of living & doing things that will require much less energy per unit of activity.

The combination of price rationing & conservation AND increased exploration & substitution will push Hubberts Peak way the hell out there... beyond where anyone can predict.

My wife & I are classic examples... due to my wife's commute & my job (sales) we drive a combined 70K mile a year. We used to drive gas guzzlers at less than 20 MPG a decade ago... We now BOTH drive Jetta diesels that get almost 50 MPG... that's a consumption reduction of 60% and the Jettas cost less, last longer and are more fun to drive. Not a sacrifice.

Meanwhile I've been changing the way I work. I use the internet a lot more & do less physical cold calling. Even though my territory is expanding I'm driving fewer miles. My guess is I'll be down to 30K miles/yr by the end of the decade (from 50K miles per year last decade) & calling on a region that is at least 50% larger than it was... Using information & telecommunications to target more effectively and getting more done with less energy consumed.

Finally - once my youngest has moved out (in about 2-3 years) then we'll either move closer to my wife's current job OR she will get a job closer to where we now live - her choice, I can live anywhere. Then we'll see another reduction in fuel usage (probably 50% or more).

And by then who knows what the fuel efficiency will be?

So 'yes' the resource as we know it is being consumed but there are options & rational responses that will greatly moderate the effects... That's the point folks like Rob't have been trying to make all along. Me too.

It isn't that Hubbert was wrong, just that the conclusions others have made from his theory have been stretched way too far.

dryfly | 07.08.07 - 11:47 pm | #

Kevin writes:
One important fact about oil consumption is usually overlooked — the oil price in dollars has risen much more than the price of oil in euros or even in yen.

The value of the dollar against both oil and other currencies is falling because the United States is issuing too many dollar-denominated IOUs.

This is because the dollar has lost so much value relative to the euro and the yen. Since George W. Bush took office at the beginning of 2001, the value of the dollar has fallen from 1.07 to 0.77 euros per dollar.

That fall has softened the rise in the price of oil for Europeans. In dollars, the price of petroleum has more than doubled. In euros, the price has risen by 50%.

The falling dollar has made the petroleum price crunch much more severe for Americans than for people in other rich countries.

http://www.theglobalist.com/DBWe...px? StoryId=4511
Kevin | 07.08.07 - 11:56 pm | #

Called_Bluff writes:
Plenty of holes in that anti-peak theory...
and the first one is the $100 million dollar kind in the Gulf of Mexico(that'd be a dry hole)
your right, prices are set at the margin... and when 50% of the people who need to drive every day, can't get there daily fix, well, let's just say you may have under-defended yourself...reagardless of the alternative energy sources...
If an owner of a well could pump 1mm bpd in beumont texas right now... and it would depress prices $10bbl, do you think he would hold back???
not a chance... he's gonna produce all he can every day, because the market wants it, and is starting to Demand it
more soon
Called_Bluff | 07.08.07 - 11:59 pm | #

God writes:
Peak oil is fiction. It is dollar decline, not peak oil, stupid.

Prices of all commodities, copper, zinc, aluminium, lead, gold, silver have been marching high from 2001. Do we have peak copper, peak zinc, peak corn, etc. as well? We also heard the stories about many cities running out of land to justify housing bubble - 'peak land' eh?

Theories similar to peak oil were abundand, even when the nation was under gold/silver standard. People talked about the country running out of silver. The most important commodity always seems to be in short supply. Why don't anybody want to see the truth called 'inflation'?
God | 07.09.07 - 12:07 am | #

Called_Bluff writes:
Talking about "peak oil" is like venturing into the occult.

you mean the white house???
Called_Bluff | 07.09.07 - 12:10 am | #

Vegas Radar writes:
Thanx Tanta!

I must admit tho that I'm an 'UberNerd Lite' as I can only grasp a bit of what it is you try to teach me...but at least I keep on trying!

Another glass of wine pleaz

Vegas Radar
Vegas Radar | 07.09.07 - 12:14 am | #

Kevin writes:
God

By God you got it.
Kevin | 07.09.07 - 12:26 am | #

dryfly writes:
Peak oil is fiction. It is dollar decline, not peak oil, stupid. - God

Man did we have to bring up that occult thing? Those guys just never get along, it always ends in the mother of all flame wars.

dryfly | 07.09.07 - 12:37 am | #

tg writes:
I would argue that a fiat currency has mispriced the true costs of resources and created an unsustainable social-economic system. If you can get something for nothing why not get a lot of it. Free markets may have not let this happen but when the cost of money is determined by central banks with a mandate for continued economic growth you do not have a free market.
tg | 07.09.07 - 1:42 am | #

tj & the bear writes:
Well, I'm not going to lay out the *real* case for Peak Oil (or Peak NG) here, but I've researched extensively on the subject (both sides) and IMHO it's very real. The evidence is compelling and the logic absolutely straightforward, but you have to be willing to consider it carefully and thoughtfully.

The danger has never really been about running out -- it's simply about demand exceeding supply to the point where the price skyrockets. Our modern societies are totally petroleum dependent, and fielding alternatives just can't happen fast enough to avoid huge economic dislocations.

My two cents.
tj & the bear | 07.09.07 - 1:43 am | #

tj & the bear writes:
I would argue that a fiat currency has mispriced the true costs of resources and created an unsustainable social-economic system.

Substitute "cheap oil" for "fiat currency" and that statement works, too.
tj & the bear | 07.09.07 - 1:47 am | #

Anonymous writes:
mp- Talking about "peak oil" is like venturing into the occult.

bluff- you mean the white house???

Well, sure, that cult is part of the occult.
Anonymous | 07.09.07 - 2:00 am | #

mp writes:
Sorry, last one was me.
mp | 07.09.07 - 2:00 am | #

mp writes:
Some weeks ago, my toad bones and ground-up dog balls predicted in this noble forum that Cerberus, after pillaging Chrysler, would sell it to the Chinese.

Since that prediction, as you may or may not be aware, China's Chery has entered into a strategic partnership with Chrysler:

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/...32247B88C633% 7D

The conjure bag insists that this partnership is the first step in the eventual Chinese takeover of Chrysler.
mp | 07.09.07 - 2:11 am | #

tj & the bear writes:
Man, mp, that bag is pretty good. I can only imagine what it would do if you could get one of Tanta's locks in there. ;-)
tj & the bear | 07.09.07 - 2:15 am | #

tj & the bear writes:
NEWSFLASH!!!

Bowing to popular demand, CR has put "The Compleat Ubernerd" link in the upper right hand margin -- a high-profile position worthy of the material.

Thanks, CR!!!
tj & the bear | 07.09.07 - 2:17 am | #

Yossarian writes:
Concerning Peak Oil... geology trumps economics, but that doesn't mean the US will resemble 'Mad Max' in five years.
Even the official DOE report on P.O. (called the Hirsch report, after its author) said that the US had to plan AND act five to ten years before the peak. Only this lead time would prevent 'major economic dislocation'.. otherwise, doing nothing and relying on the market would ensure a five to 20 year period of 'severe economic hardship'.
To quote crazed liberal (sarcasm on) Matt Simmons, we'll have to relocalize food and other sorts of production, divert truck traffic to rail, redredge our rivers, etc.
Could be investment opportunities. Could be. Could be a fundamental change in the way we do business.
I guess we'll find out.
Yossarian | 07.09.07 - 2:40 am | #

ecoshift writes:
Though I've reached a point where most friends and family suddenly find they have something else to do as I begin to explain the insights I've gained from reading this blog and following the links, I'm no uber nerd.

But I'll risk a comment anyway...

There are limits to energy available at any given time. As demand, and price, increases, production of less cost effective sources will also rise. My understanding is that there will be a physical limit that is linked to quality rather than volume. At some point the energy required to retrieve and refine exceeds the energy produced from the product. More energy effecient extraction technology will help extend the volume, but ultimately rising prices will support development of numerous alternative energy sources waiting in the wings: wind, wave, biomass, solar etc.

But, I suspect that it will be a mistake to believe that this transition to higher priced lower quality and alternative sources will occur without significant economic impacts and dislocation. Decisions will be made on least cost short-term return basis as the last drop of value is extracted through existing infrastructure. And some companies will have a stake in delaying the development of alternatives .

As someone pointed out, a significant economic contraction could lower energy prices. If this happens at a key point in a transition to alternatives... it could be a bit awkward.

Given the way this subprime fiasco is unwinding my faith in corporate strategic planning over a five to fifteen year planning horizon is strictly limited. The number of times the word "unexpected" has been used in recent statements from high level housing industry analysts is disturbing.
ecoshift | Homepage | 07.09.07 - 4:49 am | #

MOB writes:
UberNerd posts are the best. Don't get me wrong, I love to fire up my PC in the morning for the regular content, but when there's an UN post I make sure to top off my coffee before starting. This blog is what blogging should be about becausee UberNerd posts educate the readers to a point they rest of starts make more sense.

Thanks for posting them!
MOB | 07.09.07 - 11:00 am | #

dryfly writes:
The conjure bag insists that this partnership is the first step in the eventual Chinese takeover of Chrysler.

Well if the Germans can't make money off an old US auto firm, maybe the Chinese can.

Who says Americans aren't into 'recycling'?

::::

Decisions will be made on least cost short-term return basis as the last drop of value is extracted through existing infrastructure. And some companies will have a stake in delaying the development of alternatives.

The only 'alternative' that has to be implemented immediately would be 'price rationing' and 'conservation' - both can and will start immediately once prices REALLY take off. Then there will be sufficient margin for 'other' alternatives to kick in - over time.

tj - has it right that there could be price spikes as demand outstrips available supply. So be it. That is what will drive rational adoption of alternatives - nothing else will do quite as well.

meanwhile - as Rob't pointed out - as the prices spike, the existing oil industry will be turning over every rock to find more oil.

Combine all three (price rationing, margin increases for alternatives & intensified exploration for conventional sources) and you have an energy consumption curve that looks an awful lot like a big flat plateau, not a cliff.

The price curve might look like a 'peak' though...

dryfly | 07.09.07 - 11:36 am | #

Anonymous writes:
COMPLEAT:

http://dictionary.reference.com/...browse/ compleat

Origin: 1875–80; earlier sp. of complete

COMPLETE:

http://dictionary.reference.com/...browse/ complete
Anonymous | 07.11.07 - 4:25 pm | #

cc84 writes:
pyramid hefeweizen
cc84 | 07.18.07 - 4:51 pm | #

CA CMPS writes:
Tanta: For educating the "experienced" participants in the marketplace. For this we owe you a servicing fee.

Thank you.
RMB
CA CMPS | 01.29.08 - 4:10 am | #

Anonymous writes:
I just discovered the Compleat UberNerd collection and internally I am jumping with joy. Intending to read them all tomorrow after work (unless distracted by some hilarious Youtube video or lolcat series)
Anonymous | 04.28.08 - 5:05 pm | #

Docter Moe Showers writes:
Re: " I get to play in the center column where I can’t hurt anything. You may therefore pester him and see how poetic his heart is. "

I thought you were the poetic one. So why have you gone underground? I miss that sassy-kinda spunk thing you did now and then -- or do I have that wrong?
Docter Moe Showers | 06.23.08 - 11:52 pm | #