Moments of Inertia writes:
1st?
Moments of Inertia | 03.17.08 - 1:12 pm | #

tyaresun writes:
Finally some good news.
tyaresun | 03.17.08 - 1:13 pm | #

the_economist writes:
Im going all in on home builder stocks;-)
the_economist | 03.17.08 - 1:15 pm | #

Ministry of Truth writes:
Land banks getting a margin calls this year
Ministry of Truth | 03.17.08 - 1:17 pm | #

w writes:
Your graph kinda looks like an EKG, now flatlining.
w | 03.17.08 - 1:17 pm | #

Rob Dawg writes:
"Generalissimo Francisco Franco is still valiantly holding on in his fight to remain dead."
Rob Dawg | Homepage | 03.17.08 - 1:18 pm | #

REBear writes:
Seventy-four percent of those questioned in a CNN/Opinion Research Corp. survey say the economy has entered a recession

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS...onal/ index.html
REBear | 03.17.08 - 1:20 pm | #

safe_as_apartments writes:
"Seventy-four percent of those questioned in a CNN/Opinion Research Corp. survey say the economy has entered a recession"

Sebastian must have cast 26% of the total votes. (Just having fun, Seb.)
safe_as_apartments | 03.17.08 - 1:21 pm | #

energyecon writes:
CR,

Maybe roll into an update box somewhere the economic measures that have been lost in the background today:

Mar 17 8:30 AM NY Empire State Index Mar -22.2
Mar 17 9:15 AM Industrial Production Feb -0.5%
Mar 17 9:15 AM Capacity Utilization Feb 80.9%
energyecon | 03.17.08 - 1:21 pm | #

Winston writes:
I still think that this:

http://img.skitch.com/20080317- b...e2xffn8ff65.jpg

is the scarier chart.

(ripped from Brad DeLong's blog)
Winston | 03.17.08 - 1:22 pm | #

Sebastian writes:
Another chart that implies something not in evidence (i.e., "this indicator is at recession levels").

The Builder Confidence level is lower than it was at the *end* of the previous two recessions...yet we're not in recession.

In 1995, the confidence level was *lower* than in the 2001 recession...but there was no recession in 1995.


Sebastian
Sebastian | 03.17.08 - 1:24 pm | #

Elaine writes:
Winston:

I saw that chart too: a true WTF moment.

Elaine
Elaine | 03.17.08 - 1:24 pm | #

Anonymous writes:
What is great about Sebastian for bears is that he confirms here daily that the recession is still not priced in the market.
Anonymous | 03.17.08 - 1:28 pm | #

Pilgrim writes:
Re: Winston's Chart.

Can that be right? What does it mean? I have learned a ton on CR over the past year or so, but that chart seems more ominous than anything else I've seen. Perhaps someone with knowledge of the banking system can explain why a net negative reserve for the entire system is not alarming?
Pilgrim | 03.17.08 - 1:28 pm | #

Winston writes:
Pilgrim,

Check out

http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/ 20...o.html#comments

and

http://thelookingglass.blogspot....hat-fed- is.html

for context.
Winston | 03.17.08 - 1:29 pm | #

REBear writes:
I wonder when this survey was completed...
REBear | 03.17.08 - 1:30 pm | #

cd writes:
Leh-43% down..Glad were not in a recession
cd | 03.17.08 - 1:31 pm | #

cd writes:
whoops 46%
cd | 03.17.08 - 1:32 pm | #

Interesting Times writes:
Cd - "Soft Patch"
Interesting Times | 03.17.08 - 1:33 pm | #

safe_as_apartments writes:
LEH is clearly on death watch. I'm sure all the employees are glued to their Bloomberg terminals.
safe_as_apartments | 03.17.08 - 1:36 pm | #

hiker90 writes:
Econ 102 question.

From the article in the below link is this quote: "In another report on Monday, the U.S. Treasury Department said net overall capital flows in the country fell to its lowest level in four months in January. The inflows were not sufficient to cover the month's U.S. trade deficit."
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/ 20080...kets_forex_dc_6

When there is insufficient inflow, how instantaneous is the counter balancing move? Is it on the order of 1 month as short term loans and CP cannot get funded? Or is there a longer lag?

Thanks,
hiker90 | 03.17.08 - 1:41 pm | #

sterlingerl writes:
LEH is clearly on death watch. I'm sure all the employees are glued to their Bloomberg terminals. - safe_as_apts

Yep, and working out how much their stock portfolio is worth with their Lehman shares priced at $2.
sterlingerl | 03.17.08 - 1:43 pm | #

Sebastian writes:
Anonymous said: "What is great about Sebastian for bears is that he confirms here daily that the recession is still not priced in the market."

Thank-you. See what I mean about how deceptive a chart can be based on its implication? There is an *automatic* assumption of recession, even in the absence of reliable confirming evidence.


Sebastian
Sebastian | 03.17.08 - 1:48 pm | #

Elaine writes:
safe_as_apartments:

LEH is clearly on death watch. I'm sure all the employees are glued to their Bloomberg terminals.

Been there, done the equivalent when Worldcom went down. I had worked at MCI when WCOM bought them. I can still remember the day some months before when my husband (who also worked there) and I took a walk at lunch and discussed the fact that we now worked for a pyramid scheme.

I feel for the employees: the execs, not so much.
Elaine | 03.17.08 - 1:53 pm | #

bofiz writes:
This must be the bottom! Happy days are here again!
bofiz | 03.17.08 - 3:32 pm | #

MG writes:
We've had four mortgage walk-aways in my village of roughly 100 families near Las Vegas--all houses that had been bought by flippers near the top of the market as local families who had been here for decades cashed in.

The houses sold quickly after foreclosure (this is a great area), but at much lower prices than the flippers had paid for them.
MG | 03.17.08 - 4:08 pm | #