NOT Irving Fisher says... writes:
first
NOT Irving Fisher says... | 11.30.08 - 11:48 am | #

probert writes:
Don't want no Short Shopping Season
probert | 11.30.08 - 11:49 am | #

NOT Irving Fisher says... writes:
Also, discounting is always heavy on Black Friday. Is there any method to quantify compared to last year?
NOT Irving Fisher says... | 11.30.08 - 11:49 am | #

probert writes:
Don't want no
Don't want no Don't
Don't want no
Don't want no Don't
Don't want no Short Shopping Season.
probert | 11.30.08 - 11:50 am | #

NOT Irving Fisher says... writes:
I ask because the retailers I work with , for the most part, did not offer significantly higher discounts vs. LY.
NOT Irving Fisher says... | 11.30.08 - 11:51 am | #

Plantagenet writes:
"numerous door buster specials"

This should not be encouraged. If you don't believe me, ask WalMart's lawyers.
Plantagenet | 11.30.08 - 11:53 am | #

steelhead writes:
Here in Idaho, traffic is not heavy and not a lot of shopping bags being carried. I think this is going to be a very bleak shopping season.
steelhead | 11.30.08 - 11:55 am | #

NOT Irving Fisher says... writes:
Consumers love door busters... if anything expect them to become standard for all retailers.

WalMart should have been better staffed.
NOT Irving Fisher says... | 11.30.08 - 11:55 am | #

MiTurn writes:
One day does not make a trend, but it will be interesting to see the numbers. I'm curious to see how many retailers will go under because Black Friday wasn't black enough. Red ink everywhere!
MiTurn | 11.30.08 - 11:56 am | #

MiTurn writes:
OT, but I wonder if this death-by-a-thousand-little-feet at WalMart will put an end to those coupons with specific hour expirations.
MiTurn | 11.30.08 - 11:57 am | #

Anonymous writes:
My cousin works for a mall based retailer of electronics. Their sales were up 11% vs last year on Black Friday. They're also up 8% so far in November and 5% year to date. He says they haven't done any more discounting than as is typical. Baffling, but he's hearing the same comments from other retailers in the mall - sales growth actually accelerated in November. They're in a suburb of NYC. Makes no sense to me but it is what it is. Maybe it will fall off a cliff on December 1....
Went shopping yesterday and it was crazy busy - and people were buying. I was shocked.
Anonymous | 11.30.08 - 11:58 am | #

NOT Irving Fisher says... writes:
CR... does the NRF provide any numbers on how much the Thanksgiving shift (shortened selling season) impacts sales.

In my experience the "missed" sales are made up Christmas week.
NOT Irving Fisher says... | 11.30.08 - 11:58 am | #

jo6pac writes:
So sales were up but did they make any money. Was the buying public only buying lost leaders?
jo6pac
The race to the bottom continues.
jo6pac | 11.30.08 - 11:58 am | #

Plantagenet writes:
"Consumers love door busters... if anything expect them to become standard for all retailers. WalMart should have been better staffed."

Perhaps you did not read the details. The WalMart mob physically knocked the entry doors off their hinges and stormed in. Quality of staffing doesn't enter into it. Egging people on like Jerry Springer and being 'surprised' when they attack does. The lawyers will shut down this insanity after a few multi-million dollar judgements.
Plantagenet | 11.30.08 - 12:00 pm | #

GeorgeNYC writes:
If I recall, last year there were plenty of bloggers that took aim at ShopperTrak's methodology. They really just track foot traffic, Not that this is unimportant but it really only gives you a basis for an inference as to total value. it is not until the numbers actually get released that you can really tell what is going on.
GeorgeNYC | 11.30.08 - 12:02 pm | #

Rob Dawg writes:
this will be a short shopping season.

This is the only thing that saved 2007. Last year 2007 was the longest possible Thanksgiving to Christmas period 23 Nov to 24 Dec. This year 2008 is 28 Nov to 24 Dec. (2006 started 24 Nov.)

I predict no matter how miserable 2008 turns out the MSM will incessantly harp on the "shortened holiday season making comparisons difficult."
Rob Dawg | Homepage | 11.30.08 - 12:02 pm | #

Morocco Bama writes:
New song coming out by The Beastie Boys:

You Have To Fight..For Your Right.....To Stampede!!
Morocco Bama | Homepage | 11.30.08 - 12:03 pm | #

donna writes:
No, consumers do not love doorbusters. My son is disappointed because he had items in his Amazon cart and was unable to purchase them because they "ran out" at four minutes after midnight.

This is just dumb, and really pissed him off. For all the people made "happy" by a deal, many, many others are pissed off and discouraged from sgopping there again. Not smart sales strategy, really.
donna | Homepage | 11.30.08 - 12:03 pm | #

Ralph Cramdown writes:
Some shoppers surprised by Christmas sneaking up on them? Gimme a break.

Even for those who have trouble remembering when Christmas is, the media does tend to constantly remind us all.
Ralph Cramdown | 11.30.08 - 12:03 pm | #

sportsfan writes:
The lawyers will shut down this insanity after a few multi-million dollar judgements.

No, they'll just have the stores put up warning signs on the front doors:

"WARNING: Participating in our door buster sales may cause physical injury or death."
sportsfan | 11.30.08 - 12:03 pm | #

Plantagenet writes:
"My son is disappointed because he had items in his Amazon cart and was unable to purchase them because they "ran out" at four minutes after midnight."

Nobody died when Amazon lied.

The advantage of on-line shopping.
Plantagenet | 11.30.08 - 12:05 pm | #

rich writes:
Best Buy is luring people in with 18-month interest free credit. If you spend $500 or more on their card, you can make only minimum principal payments for 18 months. Then, if you pay it all off by the 18th month, no interest.

I doubt it's too hard to qualify for their card, either.

I'm wondering how many people know they're going to default on credit cards down the road somewhere. Why not enjoy a flat screen for 18 months, pay a minimum amount, and then default?

Are they really gonna repo the flat screen then, anyways?

So, the cost of these promos could add up with defaults. Of course, most merchants are off-loading some of the default risk.

But I'll bet credit purchases this season are bigger than you thought.
rich | 11.30.08 - 12:05 pm | #

Yancey Ward writes:
Maybe the SEC can ban short holiday shopping season.
Yancey Ward | 11.30.08 - 12:07 pm | #

GiezCubed writes:
The 3% increase in sales will most certainly lead to decreased profits due to the deep discounting. It's a matter of survival now and gaining market share in this environment for the return.

Target, Walmart, Kohls, Apple are positioning very well imo. These are well run companies that understand their clientele and branding very well. Dunkin Donuts is also handing it to Starbucks who lost it's degraded its brand over the last few years in a rush to be "McDonald's" with locations everywhere. Their brand was romance and they lost that loving feeling.
GiezCubed | 11.30.08 - 12:08 pm | #

Bruce in Tennessee writes:
ShopperTrak relies on foot traffic only...there are no hard numbers in this release...since everyone is going in with a list and no deviations...I will be very surprised if this is not spurious...

Let's see what the credit card boys say Monday...
Bruce in Tennessee | 11.30.08 - 12:08 pm | #

Plantagenet writes:
"Why not enjoy a flat screen for 18 months, pay a minimum amount, and then default? "

Good thing the Treasury is rushing in to underwrite issuance of securities backed by the payments on these flat screens.

At some point the taxpayer will stop standing up in between sessions, and just stay bent over.
Plantagenet | 11.30.08 - 12:08 pm | #

NOT Irving Fisher says... writes:
1jo6pac writes:
So sales were up but did they make any money. Was the buying public only buying lost leaders?
jo6pac
The race to the bottom continues.
jo6pac | 11.30.08 - 11:58 am | #

Loss leaders are extremely rare, think the 10 in stock blow out priced TVs. In actuality the vast majority of items are marked up with the intent of being sold at a set % off of ticket.
NOT Irving Fisher says... | 11.30.08 - 12:08 pm | #

Rob Dawg writes:
Rich,
I'v mentioned that before but it got lost in the noise many thread long past.

Best Buy could find itself suddenly in a liquidity squeeze. BB depends upon reselling their credit card sales to the secondary market. If they start getting 60-70¢ on the dollar they can't meet their current obligations (suppliers, operating expenses).
Rob Dawg | Homepage | 11.30.08 - 12:10 pm | #

NOT Irving Fisher says... writes:
donna writes:
No, consumers do not love doorbusters. My son is disappointed because he had items in his Amazon cart and was unable to purchase them because they "ran out" at four minutes after midnight.

This is just dumb, and really pissed him off. For all the people made "happy" by a deal, many, many others are pissed off and discouraged from sgopping there again. Not smart sales strategy, really.
donna | Homepage | 11.30.08 - 12:03 pm | #


Nope... Door busters have been around for years and continue gain in popularity.
NOT Irving Fisher says... | 11.30.08 - 12:12 pm | #

Ponyless in NJ writes:
I am strongly tempted to dismiss the ShopperTrak estimates outright.
Ponyless in NJ | 11.30.08 - 12:13 pm | #

NOT Irving Fisher says... writes:
MiTurn writes:
One day does not make a trend, but it will be interesting to see the numbers. I'm curious to see how many retailers will go under because Black Friday wasn't black enough. Red ink everywhere!
MiTurn | 11.30.08 - 11:56 am | #

Mass failure will not happen until January... one thing is certain many vendors will not be paid for holiday shipments. Cascading BKs????
NOT Irving Fisher says... | 11.30.08 - 12:14 pm | #

jo6pac writes:
NOT Irving Fisher says... | 11.30.08 - 12:08 pm | #

True and I think some one here pointed out that Best Buy had even raised the price on cheap laptop the week before.
jo6pac
jo6pac | 11.30.08 - 12:15 pm | #

PeakVT writes:
according to industry analyst ShopperTrak RCT Corp.*

* Standard ShopperTrak disclaimer applies.
PeakVT | 11.30.08 - 12:15 pm | #

Plantagenet writes:
A question for our knowledgeable crew:

The increase is said to be across all major retailers. Are their enough recently failed retailers that the survivors, sharing these sales among fewer establishments, will be relatively more profitable due to lower fixed costs?
Plantagenet | 11.30.08 - 12:15 pm | #

Bruce in Tennessee writes:
Yahoo has more meat in its release...ShopperTrak has "50,000" video camera monitors that go into its estimate...but these are estimates only, and there are NO hard figures to base this on...let's see some receipts and then decide the consumer is warming up to Xmas...
Bruce in Tennessee | 11.30.08 - 12:16 pm | #

NOT Irving Fisher says... writes:
Plantagenet writes:
A question for our knowledgeable crew:

The increase is said to be across all major retailers. Are their enough recently failed retailers that the survivors, sharing these sales among fewer establishments, will be relatively more profitable due to lower fixed costs?
Plantagenet | 11.30.08 - 12:15 pm | #

I suspect this will be the case for Christmas 09
NOT Irving Fisher says... | 11.30.08 - 12:17 pm | #

Yearning To Learn writes:
Liz:
if you're still up I left a message for you on the last thread.

on that, I bid adieu, I will be going to shop for an xmas tree

Merry ThanksHannuChristmakwanzaa.
Yearning To Learn | 11.30.08 - 12:19 pm | #

Rob Dawg writes:
Are their enough recently failed retailers that the survivors, sharing these sales among fewer establishments, will be relatively more profitable due to lower fixed costs? - Plantagenet

How many have actually closed their doors? how many are canabalizing the smaller pool of consumer expenditures? We won't see survivors' bias until at least this summer.
Rob Dawg | Homepage | 11.30.08 - 12:19 pm | #

Geoff writes:
we already beat the snot out of shopper trak's junk in the last thread's comments. Measuring foot traffic is one thing, but saying "sales were up 3%" when you only have hard data on the number of people moving through a sample of stores is a pretty weak conclusion. It totally misses any reality of conversion rates (unless the retailers are reporting that back to shopper trak before they report to anyone else - doubtful) and also misses the impact of big discounting on the revenue calculation of any purchase conversion rate used.

No matter what happened with the actual YoY growth in the traffic recorded by their cameras, they could come up with ANY NUMBER THEY WANT for sales growth.

Thiis is pure spin.
Geoff | 11.30.08 - 12:21 pm | #

NOT Irving Fisher says... writes:
I suspect that existing credit lines will allow most major retailers to survive through 2009 (think DDS). Sadly the opposite is true for "mom & pop".
NOT Irving Fisher says... | 11.30.08 - 12:22 pm | #

Zero writes:
When you don't like the truth, just start a PR campaign...

The term "Black Friday" did not originate as the first day that retailers make a profit--that is an incorrect and relatively recent fabrication. The term originated from the unpleasantness of shoppers on the day after Thanksgiving in the 1960s, but merchants didn't like the negative connotations for one of their best sales days. So they embarked on a campaign to change the meaning of the term. In typical fashion the MSM bought into this uncritically. Wikipedia has a well-researched article. (You'll have to click on the first "shopping" link--Haloscan apparently can't handle URLs with parenthesis in them.)
Zero | 11.30.08 - 12:22 pm | #

GiezCubed writes:
Rob Dawg, you won't know who won until this summer, however, the trades that profit will be made prior.
GiezCubed | 11.30.08 - 12:23 pm | #

nova writes:
All social engineering is preceded by verbal engineering.
nova | Homepage | 11.30.08 - 12:23 pm | #

Rob Dawg writes:
"Rob Dawg, you won't know who won until this summer, however, the trades that profit will be made prior." - GiezCubed

I'm very reluctant to try and pick the winners given the massive gaming of the markets via outright lying on the part of companies and intervention on the part of government.
Rob Dawg | Homepage | 11.30.08 - 12:26 pm | #

rich writes:
>My cousin works for a mall based retailer of electronics. Their sales were up 11% vs last year on Black Friday. They're also up 8% so far in November and 5% year to date. He says they haven't done any more discounting than as is typical. Baffling, but he's hearing the same comments from other retailers in the mall - sales growth actually accelerated in November. They're in a suburb of NYC.


Electronics sales are up in NY area because of mid-Feb. deadline for converting to digital TV.

NY still has lots of folks with over-the-air signal. They have to buy a converter box or get cable, or else lose TV altogether.

Hispanic channels must have a lot of over-the-air viewers because they remind them of the conversion deadline almost on the hour.

It's a one-time opportunity that's driving traffic.
rich | 11.30.08 - 12:27 pm | #

Sports Guy Lafleur writes:
I make a point of not shopping at all this weekend, for three reasons.

1.) I don't enjoy crowds. Buying objects of desire can be an enjoyable experience. Think lingering in a wine store, or a book store or even at a decent butcher shop. When I contrast this with being penned up with overweight WALL-E mouthbreathers in search of the $2 Smokey and The Bandit part II DVD..., no thanks.

2.) I like to think I'm a grownup when it comes to separating 'wants' from 'needs' at least during the holiday shopping season. I'm not much for spontaneous purchases, except maybe in the produce aisle. But electronics, or clothes, or housewares are different..., I know how much these things should cost, and thus I know what a bargain is. A crappy loss-leader DVD player usually gives proof to the adage, "You get what you pay for." I'll wait and buy quality at a fair price

3.) I work for a living. Even on Friday.

When people talk openly about running to Kohl's or Wal-Mart on Black Friday at 4 a.m., it always signified somebody who was extremely susceptible to hype, advertising, and herd mentality. I tend not to hang out with those people, because I often get strange looks from them when they find out I am not watching their favority television show either...,
Sports Guy Lafleur | 11.30.08 - 12:29 pm | #

Shnaps writes:
So what's everyone's prediction for "Cyber-Monday"?

I say way down. -10% or more. Black Friday was up b/c the lower income segment made plans to buy at max discount. Whereas cybermonday sales have been driven more by middle- and upper- earners.
Shnaps | Homepage | 11.30.08 - 12:29 pm | #

BobbyFlav writes:
Haloscan apparently can't handle URLs with parenthesis in them.)
Zero

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bla..._%28shopping% 29
BobbyFlav | 11.30.08 - 12:31 pm | #

NOT Irving Fisher says... writes:
As for deals I did buy a 42" LCD from Tiger Direct.

I was happy with the price.
NOT Irving Fisher says... | 11.30.08 - 12:34 pm | #

Anonymous writes:
xmas, boring:

http://www.youtube.com/watch? v=m...feature=related
Anonymous | 11.30.08 - 12:35 pm | #

Shnaps writes:
er, make that middle- and upper- MEWers.
Shnaps | Homepage | 11.30.08 - 12:35 pm | #

Michael writes:
Hey CalculatedRisk. Are you ever going to say anything positive? It is like you are Roubini's lap dop. How does it feel sucking up to him?

Instead of grasping for dark linings in the increase of sales, it would not hurt to say that "IT IS GREAT THAT PEOPLE ARE IGNORING ROUBINI AND ME AND GOING OUT TO SHOP"
Michael | 11.30.08 - 12:35 pm | #

Anonymous writes:
Buy the rumor. Go heavy into retail ETF, sell at close.
Anonymous | 11.30.08 - 12:36 pm | #

Comrade NSA writes:
lap dop?
Comrade NSA | 11.30.08 - 12:37 pm | #

On the edge writes:
Michael writes:
Hey CalculatedRisk. Are you ever going to say anything positive? It is like you are Roubini's lap dop. How does it feel sucking up to him?


Sounds like someone is long DOW/SP
On the edge | 11.30.08 - 12:39 pm | #

GiezCubed writes:
RobDawg"I'm very reluctant to try and pick the winners given the massive gaming of the markets via outright lying on the part of companies and intervention on the part of government."

Very good point and many agree with you. But that may make the profits a bit easier to capitalize.
GiezCubed | 11.30.08 - 12:40 pm | #

Bruce in Tennessee writes:
Michael:

I couldn't care less whether people are shopping their little brains out, or staying home and being grumpy. Makes no difference. However, I am trying to figure out where to invest next year, and all this little tidbits of information go into that decision. I just don't happen to believe the ShopperTrak release...a estimate of sales based on foot traffic? Puleeassssseeeeee...give me and other realists some credit..
Bruce in Tennessee | 11.30.08 - 12:41 pm | #

John S writes:
I'm trying to sell my wife on a "no presents" Christmas this year. She's not going for it. I'm sick and tired of the 10K credit card bill I have to pay every January. Especially this year when the chances of both of us still being employed in 6 months are between slim and none.

Has it occurred to anyone that a potential 3% gain on foot traffic compares to a headline inflation number of 5 percent? Or the "real" figure that's in double digits?
John S | 11.30.08 - 12:42 pm | #

Vader writes:
I buy from craigslist and garage sales. It is hard to get excited over a $99 camera when I just pick up one for $25 just as good with more accessories and no sales tax. I make do with my $20 25 inch TV that someone sold because they wanted the $699 one.
Vader | 11.30.08 - 12:43 pm | #

Morocco Bama writes:
lap dop?

I think he meant lap top.
Morocco Bama | Homepage | 11.30.08 - 12:48 pm | #

Unit472 writes:
Well how are gun and ammo sales doing
this Christmas?

I think rifle rounds would make very pretty Christmas tree decorations and a Glock and a Browning under the tree a commentary on Christmas 2008.

Then again, maybe tent and sleeping bags sales are doing well as Americans
prepare for hard times ahead.
Unit472 | 11.30.08 - 12:49 pm | #

Michael writes:
I have been in cash all this time and I am keeping my money while others are loosing them. This has to do with intellectual honesty. The only person that has some credibility here is Soros. The econ will overshoot on the way down as it did on the way up because of people like Roubini and his lap dog, CalculatedRisk, who keep pushing bad news. CalculatedRisk is no different than the real estate agent that told you home will double in value every year for the next 10 years because of immigration and demographics.
Michael | 11.30.08 - 12:49 pm | #

Rob Dawg writes:
Very good point and many agree with you. But that may make the profits a bit easier to capitalize. - GiezCubed

I laugh at the people who think REITs are buys now because they've gone down 60-94%. Too bad the options markets are now so expensive as to negte any possible risk/reward.
Rob Dawg | Homepage | 11.30.08 - 12:49 pm | #

Rob Dawg writes:
Michael,
CR posts several times a week a running track of the good news in the credit markets.
Rob Dawg | Homepage | 11.30.08 - 12:51 pm | #

NOT Irving Fisher says... writes:
Michael,

Go away.
NOT Irving Fisher says... | 11.30.08 - 12:52 pm | #

Morocco Bama writes:
The only person that has some credibility here is Soros.

You're joking, aren't you?
Morocco Bama | Homepage | 11.30.08 - 12:52 pm | #

rent_to_own writes:
'...CalculatedRisk, who keep pushing bad news.'

Boy, you are new here, aren't you?

Let's just say that one of the more recently moronic attacks against CR was that he is TOO optimistic.

Maybe you and Jas can get together somewhere together.
rent_to_own | 11.30.08 - 12:53 pm | #

Michael writes:
Hey NOT Irving Fisher - You go away.
Michael | 11.30.08 - 12:53 pm | #

Morocco Bama writes:
If CR is Roubini's lap dop, I'm Roubini's vagina.
Morocco Bama | Homepage | 11.30.08 - 12:54 pm | #

NOT Irving Fisher says... writes:
Vader,

Glad people like you are out there... I made enough money in a yard sale last week to almost cover yesterday's purchase of a $799 TV.
NOT Irving Fisher says... | 11.30.08 - 12:54 pm | #

REBear writes:
When people talk openly about running to Kohl's or Wal-Mart on Black Friday at 4 a.m., it always signified somebody who was extremely susceptible to hype, advertising, and herd mentality.

We went shopping on Friday. Discounted winter clothes for kids and discounted grocery shopping at BJs made up our list. We are stocked up for the winter!
REBear | 11.30.08 - 12:54 pm | #

Michael writes:
Hey rent_to_own. Your name says it all. You are the same as the dumb asses that bought overvalued homes hoping they would increase in value forever.
Michael | 11.30.08 - 12:55 pm | #

Michael writes:
Hey Morocco Bama - You need something big and hard stuck into you. Possibly vibrating as well.
Michael | 11.30.08 - 12:56 pm | #

NOT Irving Fisher says... writes:
CR. Please ban this guy.
NOT Irving Fisher says... | 11.30.08 - 12:57 pm | #

12th Percentile writes:
I'm shopping for SRS at $100. I'm betting my stupid American investor friends will give me a deal based on this wonderful holiday shopping news.

As my mentor W likes to say, "bring it on".
12th Percentile | 11.30.08 - 12:59 pm | #

Jethro Q Walrustitty writes:
I had to go to Sears yesterday at my local mall (owned by GGP, natch) because I needed to replace a washing machine that died on Thanksgiving. They had a pretty good deal as far as appliances go, 20% off Kenmore and free next-day delivery because their Black Friday deals lasted until noon Saturday.

I had no problems finding parking right next to the now-closed Levitz store (which used to be a Sears Homelfie store) next to Sears. The store was relatively empty and I had no problem getting help from an appliance salesperson. I ventured into the mall to see how busy it was and I didn't find it any busier than any other time I had been in the mall, if anything it was less busy.

The new washer will probably be the only significant thing we will spend money on for the next several months. For the last few years my partner and I have skipped giving birthday and Christmas gifts (our birthdays are both at the end of the year) because we figure if we want something we will buy it ourselves. Trying to convince the in-laws to not buy us tacky crap from Walmart is a different task entirely though.
Jethro Q Walrustitty | 11.30.08 - 12:59 pm | #

NOT Irving Fisher says... writes:
From Michael "money while others are loosing them"

Pure genius.
NOT Irving Fisher says... | 11.30.08 - 12:59 pm | #

JBR writes:
Do not give nutrients to mythical creatures. DNFTT.
JBR | 11.30.08 - 1:00 pm | #

12th Percentile writes:

I have been in cash all this time and I am keeping my money while others are loosing them. This has to do with intellectual honesty.


Good thing it doesn't have to do with spelling and grammar or you'd be loosing.
12th Percentile | 11.30.08 - 1:00 pm | #

Bruce in Tennessee writes:
Michael:

Simmer down...our point is not the story...the point is that in this economy stating that sales have increased by 3%, without one receipt and based solely on foot traffic, is a leap of faith...it isn't reality based, and frankly goes against everything else we know about the consumer....underwater in houses, high credit cards, etc...just wait until real receipts show up in next week's news...
Bruce in Tennessee | 11.30.08 - 1:00 pm | #

squeezed writes:
i am shopping for scc on cyber monday. i expect to get a good deal.
squeezed | 11.30.08 - 1:01 pm | #

GiezCubed writes:
RobDawg, I agree on REITs. They are nasty right now and I can't imagine their making any money (for themselves or investors) until the second half of 2009. I had a client/friend ask my opinion of a "well-funded REIT" that is paying 11% 5 months ago. I told him to stay clear of it for over a year. It has now declined over 65% in value.

Michael, I would argue the market has overshot in many areas already on the way down. It may not be as great of a swing as were expecting, due to the massive credit pumping into the financial system. As poor as many of the governmental actions have been, they have avoided the worst case scenario (depression, run on banks etc) imo.
GiezCubed | 11.30.08 - 1:01 pm | #

NOT Irving Fisher says... writes:
enjoyed chatting. talk to you later
NOT Irving Fisher says... | 11.30.08 - 1:02 pm | #

Craven Moorehead writes:
I wanted to pick up a GPS unit this weekend.

Garmin Nuvi 255W.

BestBuy - $279
Amazon - $215

Guess where I bought it.

I looked over some of the brick and mortar Black Friday deals. The door busters are usually cheap off-brand junk, and obviously limited in supply. If you want to camp out 3 days in advance and risk getting trampled to "save" a few ten dollar bills, I guess that's your business but I don't think any educated consumer should fall for that.

For quality items, before, after and on Black Friday, there is no reason at all to stand in line at 4 AM in the cold. The same stuff can be bought online, CHEAPER.

This just goes to show how conditioned Americans are. They don't research, they just take for granted they are getting some kind of deal because the news channel shows hordes of overweight mommas in mu-mus stampeding the Walmart at first light.

Amazon 4 life.
Craven Moorehead | 11.30.08 - 1:02 pm | #

rent_to_own writes:
Michael-
no, I am one of those dumb asses living in a house since 1996 were the rent hasn't changed at all.

Which means that my name isn't all that accurate - I rent to rent, with my rent decreasing at the rate of inflation.

You should try it sometime - it works well with all the gloominess CR presents in his factually supported posts.
rent_to_own | 11.30.08 - 1:02 pm | #

Coinz! writes:

NOT Irving Fisher says... writes:
From Michael "money while others are loosing them"

Pure genius.


Hey, the Fed is loosing money, or at least trying.
Coinz! | 11.30.08 - 1:03 pm | #

nades writes:
I am strongly tempted to dismiss the ShopperTrak estimates outright.
Ponyless in NJ

I'm inclined based on the anecdotal evidence posted here about increases in sales and the ShopperTrack data to say that sales might be up.

The american public knows no limits.

.......

Dawg,

Interesting idea about the BB squeeze. Certainly seems possible...

......

Michael,

You're too funny... CR is the most optimistic person here right now. Give him credit for being positive in light everything happening today...

....
nades | 11.30.08 - 1:03 pm | #

Michael writes:
Bruce in Tennessee, thanks for you sane comments. I agree that we are talking about foot traffic and not real data. The consumer did get overextended and, in the next few quarters, people will find out that they were not really rich and that Escalade bought with a home equity line of credit is now a big source of stress. On the other hand, the hysteria about bad news on this blog is ridiculous. It is the same as the hysteria that created the bubble in the first place. That is my beef with CR and the rest of the people making their living inciting fear.
Michael | 11.30.08 - 1:05 pm | #

citizen energyecon writes:
GeorgeNYC | 11.30.08 - 12:02 pm | #
Yep, WAG's on conversion rate of foot traffic into sales.

Bruce in Tennessee | 11.30.08 - 12:08 pm | #
Yep.

IIRC, last year ShopperTrak called an 8.3% increase YoY for Black Friday...
citizen energyecon | Homepage | 11.30.08 - 1:05 pm | #

1 currency soon [yogi] writes:
Michael if you only knew...
CR is considered an optimist by the majority here.

Everyone educated person I know checks the internet for any purchase of a mass-produced good. Showroom space will always be needed for clothes and other goods, but right now there is still a huge surplus, as with retail sales labor.

If the raw commodities sellers are public companies, and the manufacturers are public companies, and the retailers are public companies, there is much waste in the form of dividends or expected dividends. This waste should be competitively bid down in the long run, such that waves of bankruptcies among retailers should be expected. In fact, they represent economic gain to society in the form of deflation of retail prices.
1 currency soon [yogi] | 11.30.08 - 1:08 pm | #

GiezCubed writes:
Rent_to_own
"Factually supported posts" Other than the Volvo truck story that many assumed was true because it fed the doom's day monolith.

Michael actually brings up a valid point. If you are sold out on the worst case scenario, then you'll only be looking for data supporting your case even though other scenarios are more likely. This was the same case of those in real estate, long only portfolios who couldn't break their wrong paradigm.
GiezCubed | 11.30.08 - 1:08 pm | #

Michael writes:
GiezCubed,

Thanks for the sane comments too.
Michael | 11.30.08 - 1:08 pm | #

Anonymous writes:
That is my beef with CR and the rest of the people making their living inciting fear.
Michael

Why read it then? Turn the channel.
Anonymous | 11.30.08 - 1:08 pm | #

1 currency soon [yogi] writes:
Also, CR mainly posts hard data. If you can prove them wrong, or have positive hard data, we're all ears.
1 currency soon [yogi] | 11.30.08 - 1:09 pm | #

Comrade Kristina writes:
So people really aren't losing their jobs and homes? Tent cities really aren't popping up all over the country? Food banks are not really having a hard time feeding the hungry? There really isn't a 64 Trillion dollar CDS market unraveling? We don't have a negative savings rate? Cool, everything is great...Guess I'll fire up the credit card and go shopping, after all it's the patriotic thing to do, right?
Comrade Kristina | 11.30.08 - 1:10 pm | #

nades writes:
On a side (and semi related) note I saw this website on the news: http://www.walletpop.com/

On the deals page it will keep track of all the good stuff that will be quickly sold low on "cyber monday"

FD: I know nothing about the site and dont get a nickle for it....
nades | 11.30.08 - 1:11 pm | #

El Cliffo writes:
In The New York Review of Books, Nobel-prize winning economist Paul Krugman (PBUH) spells out his ideas about the current slump:

"The quintessential economic sentence is supposed to be 'There is no free lunch'; it says that there are limited resources, that to have more of one thing you must accept less of another, that there is no gain without pain. Depression economics, however, is the study of situations where there is a free lunch, if we can only figure out how to get our hands on it, because there are unemployed resources that could be put to work."

Remarkably, Krugman interprets the phrase "There's No Such Thing as a Free Lunch" to mean that an economy is a zero-sum game (an idea he likely picked up from Lester Thurow at MIT). But that's wrong. The phrase really means that if you want to consume, you must also produce. His other idea, that a Depression economy contains hidden, untapped resources, is also bizarre. These resources are illusory--just a faint memory of the previous boom.
El Cliffo | Homepage | 11.30.08 - 1:13 pm | #

1 currency soon [yogi] writes:
The national debt is not approaching 11 trillion. NY State unemployment fund is not almost out of money. California has no budget problem...
1 currency soon [yogi] | 11.30.08 - 1:13 pm | #

rent_to_own writes:
'This just goes to show how conditioned Americans are. They don't research, they just take for granted they are getting some kind of deal....'

This is one of the things that killed Wal-mart in Germany. Germans are used to actually comparing prices, not listening to ads - as a matter of facts, Germans seem to be shockingly distrustful of advertising, thinking its main purpose is to deceive to customers to allow a merchant to earn a greater profit.

And when compared to Aldi/Lidl prices, shopping at Wal-mart for food simply cost more, regardless of what Wal-mart proclaimed.

And Wal-mart had problems on the other side - cheaper non-food products of lower quality are simply not worth buying, as Germans prefer to pay 2x as much for something that last 5 times as long.

Wal-mart really never had a chance here - especially considering that union busting is simply not possible in Germany.
rent_to_own | 11.30.08 - 1:14 pm | #

REBear writes:
Trump Entertainment to miss interest payment

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/...648889E4413E% 7D
REBear | 11.30.08 - 1:14 pm | #

bad news bears writes:
Attended the Macy's holiday parade here in Portland, Oregon on Friday. Parade was noticebly reduced in budget from previous year.

Dragged along with in-law to buy a holiday dress for my daughter at Macy's.

With the exception of loss leaders in housewares (pots, pans, etc) and morning pricing on select children's clothing and women's shoes and accessories (and basically a give-away with special coupons and other incentives) the other departments were empty.

While we there, the morning pricing was about to expire and floor managers ran about placing "Morning pricing extended until 3pm" signs. My guess : an effort to keep folks beyond 11am in hope of more selling.

Many shoppers were divided up purchases between credit cards and making heavy use of various Macy coupons to be had in the local paper, those mailed out to card holders, and special pricing if you used your Macy's card.


Folks were making single purchases and leaving with small bags.

Elsewhere, Nordstrom's moderate foot traffic, not many bags leaving the store.

High-end jewelers, Brooks Brothers, Barney's, etc. All empty, literally, except the staff. One jeweler had obviously staffed up for the day. Nine folks just standing around with the manager looking a bit shell shocked.

Apple store was a groovy mob scene. I suspect Apple will be sustaining irrational exuberance in the tech sector for December.
bad news bears | 11.30.08 - 1:17 pm | #

citizen energyecon writes:
Michael,

Google "confirmation bias"

and the Soros quote: "The first principle is that you must not fool yourself - and you are the easiest person to fool.

Though they apply equally to all. Hence the preference for data based assessments rather than unsupported assertions. YMMV.
citizen energyecon | Homepage | 11.30.08 - 1:19 pm | #

Ed writes:
Has this claim actually been seen in the past? "Additionally, consumers have just 27 days to shop this year as opposed to 32 in 2007, which may catch some procrastinating consumers off guard, leading to lower sales levels" ... or is this just a random guess, rather than any attempt at a fact based forecast?
Ed | 11.30.08 - 1:21 pm | #

nova writes:
True, in that it is going to be bad, these next few years. Yet the bad will not be evenly distributed.
nova | 11.30.08 - 1:22 pm | #

rent_to_own writes:
'Other than the Volvo truck story that many assumed was true because it fed the doom's day monolith.'

Actually, that story was quite interesting - Bloomberg screwed up, but then, at least according to the 'debunking' story, so did Volvo. Hard to imagine that any manufacturing company could just end up not being able to find roughly 20% of its sales volume in orders, but that is just what happened to Volvo, at least according to the debunker. That is, 20% of that total crash in sales volume was due to Volvo having to eliminate what were apparently non-existent orders.

On the brighter side, Mercedes truck orders only fell 56% percent during that same period - some the people living in this part of Germany will be dealing with that happy, happy data for a while.
rent_to_own | 11.30.08 - 1:22 pm | #

theotherdeb writes:
I went out on Black Friday, but not until afternoon. My own observations were that parking lots were full and stores were packed, but people really weren't buying much - not even at Circuit City & Mervyn's going-out-of-business sales. One thing I did notice was four separate people buying big screen HDTVs at Costco. Also, Costco was sold out of Wii consoles. Other than that, it was a big yawn.
theotherdeb | Homepage | 11.30.08 - 1:24 pm | #

mp writes:
***CONJURE BAG'S DEPRESSION CLOCK***

For those of you who are familiar with Conjure's "Global Financial Meltdown Clock," which has since melted down and vaporized after striking midnight, Conjure is introducing a depression clock after many requests to do so.

The meltdown clock, which started last year, struck midnight during the first half of this year.

Like the atomic scientists' clock, Conjure's is *event driven*. It can, based on positive or negative events, move both forward and backward in time.

The time is now--

11:59:45

Conjure says, "With monetary policy having failed, we are now seconds away from a *global* depression."

"Have a nice day."
mp | 11.30.08 - 1:26 pm | #

bgates writes:
I really wonder how the total volume of Xmas revenue compares to the final Citi bailout cost. No need to wonder about how the actual marginal profit of said event compares...
bgates | 11.30.08 - 1:26 pm | #

1 currency soon [yogi] writes:
Economics as it was taught in the 70's and 80's is always struggling to reconcile the idea of scarce resources with the belief that there is always a competitor in the free market who can devote unlimited resources to producing a better mousetrap as soon as current mousetrap producers demand oligopoly prices.

Nobody really wants ditchdiggers, but it can not be disputed that big fluctuations in unemployment levels should be avoided if possible. Government stimulation of employment can help.

Humans can't create matter, but their labor can create value that did not exist before. To the extent such value is itself a "resource", resources in fact become unlimited.
1 currency soon [yogi] | 11.30.08 - 1:26 pm | #

Comrade Kristina writes:
LOL mp, but, but, Michael just told us everything is great? How can it be so late?
Comrade Kristina | 11.30.08 - 1:27 pm | #

Tyrone writes:
.
2008-11-30: Chinese leader says China losing competitive edge
BEIJING – Chinese President Hu Jintao warned that China has started to lose its competitive edge in trade amid the global financial crisis, as he told Communist Party leaders the challenge posed a test to the government's ability to rule, state media reported.

China's economic growth is expected to fall to about 9 percent this year, down from last year's 11.9 percent. That would be the fastest of any major economy, but Chinese leaders worry about possible unrest as unemployment rises, especially in export industries where factories are shutting down as global demand plummets.

"External demand has obviously weakened and China's traditional competitive advantage is being gradually weakened," Hu said, according to the Communist Party's official People's Daily newspaper.
...
He said greater effort should be made to raise living standards, use resources more efficiently and develop rural and urban areas, the report said.

The remarks come after China's top economic planner Zhang Ping, chairman of the Cabinet's National Development and Reform Commission, warned Thursday that the impact of the global financial crisis is worsening and that rising job losses could fuel instability.
.
Tyrone | Homepage | 11.30.08 - 1:27 pm | #

Ponyless in NJ writes:
nades,

There are limits imposed on the american public that are outside of its control. Unemployment is up. Borrowing money is more expensive (CC vs. HELOC). Money has been lost in stocks and 401ks.

The outlook is gloomy and people are frightened of the future.

These factors *must* have an impact on sales numbers.

I wouldn't be surprised if the number of people shopping remained stable between last black friday and this one. The purchase total per shopper is the metric that I would be interested in seeing. Shoppertrak has no ability to gauge that.
Ponyless in NJ | 11.30.08 - 1:28 pm | #

theotherdeb writes:
mp,

But what about all those HDTVs? JK, I'm with conjure on this one :(
theotherdeb | Homepage | 11.30.08 - 1:28 pm | #

GiezCubed writes:
"Conjure says, "With monetary policy having failed, we are now seconds away from a *global* depression."

"Have a nice day."
mp"

MP, are you calling for a worldwide depression? Just wanted to make sure we logged your prediction correctly.
GiezCubed | 11.30.08 - 1:29 pm | #

mp writes:
Kristina, I can only paraphrase the wisdom of the great Satchel Paige:

"Look behind you, there might be something gaining on you."
mp | 11.30.08 - 1:29 pm | #

safe_as_apartments writes:
My black friday observations:

Best Buy in metro Boston at 1:00 p.m.: Busy, but not crazy. Not much purchasing going on, lines were short. Lots of browsing, lots of disappointment that deals were all gone. Piles (at least 50 units) of PS3s, XBOXs, and Wiis were untouched during the entire hour I was there. (I kid you not.)

Target in metro Boston at 2:00 p.m.: Also busy, but not crazy. Lines were short.

On Saturday, I needed to go to both again. Both were pretty dead/regular crowds. Plenty of parking.
safe_as_apartments | 11.30.08 - 1:29 pm | #

mp writes:
"MP, are you calling for a worldwide depression? "

Conjure says, "Worldwide, global. Whatever."
mp | 11.30.08 - 1:30 pm | #

Topher writes:
NOT Irving Fisher says... writes:
Vader,

Glad people like you are out there... I made enough money in a yard sale last week to almost cover yesterday's purchase of a $799 TV.
NOT Irving Fisher says... | 11.30.08 - 12:54 pm | #
Must have been from all that other stuff you really needed a while back!

J/k
Topher | 11.30.08 - 1:31 pm | #

LAM writes:
Shopping 3 months for flat screen, Circuit City had the "Best Buy" 10% less than all others with 36 month 0% and also additional $50.00 savings when checking out. This was a pleasant surprise, In/Out 15min Friday afternoon. Green Bay, WI
LAM | 11.30.08 - 1:31 pm | #

JimPortlandOR writes:
In an age of terrorism, blowout sales are probably not much of an attraction.
JimPortlandOR | 11.30.08 - 1:32 pm | #

Exit writes:
mp -

oh, lovely.

I'm going to go play catch with my son, who is 9. I wonder how he and his younger brother will fare, in the coming debacle.

In the meantime, on the last day of November in southern california, the sun is out.

good day...
Exit | 11.30.08 - 1:32 pm | #

mp writes:
Conjure is not saying that a depression is a "done deal."

He is saying that a depression is *likely*, but can be averted.

It depends on events.
mp | 11.30.08 - 1:33 pm | #

Comrade Kristina writes:
mp, I'm curious as to Conjure's opinion on thwarting this depression? Are there steps to be taken to prevent?
Comrade Kristina | 11.30.08 - 1:34 pm | #

bad news bears writes:
1 currency soon [yogi] writes:
Humans can't create matter, but their labor can create value that did not exist before. To the extent such value is itself a "resource", resources in fact become unlimited.

------

Unfortunately we American humans have mostly created massive debt and no-bid contract wars as of late. No good will come of either and the export market for both is drying up quickly.

Maybe Black Friday should have been dedicated to thinking about the consequences.
bad news bears | 11.30.08 - 1:34 pm | #

Anonymous writes:
"Look behind you, there might be something gaining on you."
mp

"Don't look behind you,....
Anonymous | 11.30.08 - 1:35 pm | #

comrade skeptictank writes:
ShopperTrak has a track record of overestimating sales.
comrade skeptictank | 11.30.08 - 1:37 pm | #

ALONGWAYTOGO writes:
Maybe I'm German after all. Only shop out of neccesity, and when I buy I won't quality...After 35 years my sink strainer/stopper just failed and flew apart..Hub goes to Walmart and buys one identical and it flys apart the first time, hub goes back and gets another, it last 2 or 3 days and flys apart, We then go to Lowe's and hey they have the same one except it's packaged somewhat different...All made in China...These strainer/stoppers were less than 2.00, yet they are filling up our landfill's.....So I will just make do until I can locate one made in USA.
ALONGWAYTOGO | 11.30.08 - 1:38 pm | #

mp writes:
"Are there steps to be taken to prevent?"

Conjure says, "Well-applied stimulus of two principal kinds, fiscal and electrical."
mp | 11.30.08 - 1:38 pm | #

MrM writes:
mp - It is interesting you mentioned that the monetary policy has failed. I seem to recall that you think the fiscal policy can still stave off the depression (or maybe just to soften the blow).
It is true that fiscal stimulus is a tried-and-true recipe to avoid recession. However, it is designed to deal with demand shocks, with the government stepping in to support the falling aggregate demand. The current economic malaise seems to be of a different kind - Minsky-type deleveraging and debt destruction.
Do you still think that debt-fueled fiscal stimulus can steer the economy off the cliff?
What kinds of events would push the D-Clock back?
MrM | 11.30.08 - 1:38 pm | #

Topher writes:
“This just goes to show how conditioned Americans are. They don't research, they just take for granted they are getting some kind of deal because the news channel shows hordes of overweight mommas in mu-mus stampeding the Walmart at first light.”

Amazon 4 life.
Craven Moorehead | 11.30.08 - 1:02 pm | #


So true, the key word being CONDITIONED!
Topher | 11.30.08 - 1:38 pm | #

bad news bears writes:
JimPortlandOR writes:
In an age of terrorism, blowout sales are probably not much of an attraction.

---------

Except when terrorism/acts of violence becomes High Definition entertainment.

But probably hanging out looking at these evil HD beasts will broadcasts of the blood bath in Mumbai comes at your face in mega-resolution glory might be a turn off to reasonable people.

At least until you get distracted by playing Grand Theft Auto on the beast. Then you become its slave for life enthralled by HD acts of cyber violence.
bad news bears | 11.30.08 - 1:40 pm | #

Comrade Kristina writes:
So Conjure agrees with Roubini on the fiscal stimuli. I'm kind of afraid to ask but, electrical?
Comrade Kristina | 11.30.08 - 1:40 pm | #

ac writes:
"The quintessential economic sentence is supposed to be 'There is no free lunch'; it says that there are limited resources, that to have more of one thing you must accept less of another, that there is no gain without pain. Depression economics, however, is the study of situations where there is a free lunch, if we can only figure out how to get our hands on it, because there are unemployed resources that could be put to work."

I think what Krugman needs to consider is that the problem was that these resources were overused and that the current problem is that continuing to use them will simply lead to more overcapacity, bad debt, and poor ROI.

Perhaps there is some creative alternate use of these resources, but the nature of a credit crisis is that society has demonstrated it's inability to employ resources in productive ways.

Now Krugman in effect is saying "trust us" when all recent experience suggests we are untrustworthy.

I think what Krugman offers is the "Hail Mary Pass" approach.

It might work, but I think you have to be very skeptical of a society whose future is so dependent on a successful roll of the dice.

If we incur massive amounts of public debt that doesn't pay off, as appears to be Japan's fate, from a historical perspective one must expect we will go into a long intractable decline.

The alternative viewpoint is that severe short-term pain will possibly be sufficient to clear out the debt and reopen the future to us.

Given the psychological make up of the world today that seems not to be an option. It is not politically feasible.
ac | 11.30.08 - 1:40 pm | #

cd writes:
Michael,

Why read CR then? Your one of those guys that spouts his mouth off yet doesn't go out and do shit about anything..or I call them Sheeple...

Go out and protest at the fed, clean up some graffiti, pick up some litter...stay away from here and all will be well...
cd | 11.30.08 - 1:40 pm | #

mp writes:
"What kinds of events would push the D-Clock back?"

How many days have you available for a recitation of the list?
mp | 11.30.08 - 1:41 pm | #

Dirk writes:
The Fed is out of ammo, Fiscal stimulus/infrastructure invest ment is our only hope (help us Obama wan Kenobi). Fed will have to turn on the presses as well (quant easing). Deflation first, then high risk of hyperinfaltion. Well perhaps no weimar/zimbabwe levels, but likley much higher than Ford/Carter levels in late 2010, or 2011.
Dirk | Homepage | 11.30.08 - 1:41 pm | #

1 currency soon [yogi] writes:
We will also find that much of the lost retail sales and associated resources spent shopping were illusory gains to our standard of living, and many will be quite happy consuming less.

My most treasured material possessions are recorded music and ideas. So I am living in a Golden Age. The US has a glut of shelter, and we've produced a grain surplus for about 300 consecutive years. If we can distribute wealth in a reasonably balanced way, the depression won't be so terrible.
1 currency soon [yogi] | 11.30.08 - 1:43 pm | #

Comrade Gavshire Hathaway writes:
mp,
Global depression cannot realistically be averted at this point. We passed the tipping point months ago. Now all we can do is wait until things will continue to deteriorate.
Comrade Gavshire Hathaway | 11.30.08 - 1:44 pm | #

the poster fomerly known as ni writes:
"Shopping 3 months for flat screen, Circuit City had the "Best Buy" 10% less than all others with 36 month 0% and also additional $50.00 savings when checking out. This was a pleasant surprise, In/Out 15min Friday afternoon. Green Bay, WI"

LAM...way cool...now ya kin watch the Pack get spanked in style!!!!

nades; good to see you back.
the poster fomerly known as ni | 11.30.08 - 1:45 pm | #

Topher writes:
Comrade Kristina writes:
So people really aren't losing their jobs and homes? Tent cities really aren't popping up all over the country? Food banks are not really having a hard time feeding the hungry? There really isn't a 64 Trillion dollar CDS market unraveling? We don't have a negative savings rate? Cool, everything is great...Guess I'll fire up the credit card and go shopping, after all it's the patriotic thing to do, right?
Comrade Kristina | 11.30.08 - 1:10 pm | #


Hey I didn’t get the memo that all is fine either!

Did you get your TARP yet?
Topher | 11.30.08 - 1:45 pm | #

MrM writes:
How many days have you available for a recitation of the list?

The list of event that can push back the D-Clock (i.e., averting depression) cannot be possibly that long, can it?
What are the top 5?
MrM | 11.30.08 - 1:46 pm | #

1 currency soon [yogi] writes:
It's muumuu to yuu.
1 currency soon [yogi] | 11.30.08 - 1:46 pm | #

peAkcredit writes:
CR: Your research, data and news presentation repeatedly shows me how the unfolding credit collapse can be analyzed without hysteria, bad news or inciting of fear.

Thanks for providing the structure where such a unique discussion can flourish amidst a never-ending wave of self-serving misinformation and lies from congress, federal officials, the MSM and non-critical thinkers.
peAkcredit | 11.30.08 - 1:47 pm | #

mp writes:
"I'm kind of afraid to ask but, electrical?"

Conjure says, "Yes, Kristina, electrical."

"Some people need to be energized."
mp | 11.30.08 - 1:48 pm | #

mbartv writes:
I made a point last year of tracking(?) the sales estimates from Black Friday. They were non-sensical when the real data came out. This is one of these stupid horserace games the media plays because they're too stupid to do any real reporting. Thanks to the poster who referred to the real etymology (sp?) of Black Friday. The Army Navy game was in the mix, too! Also did anyone catch Peggy Noonan's column where she doesn't see anything different in this economy (on the Upper East Side of Manhattan, natch).

Happy holidays to all, and thanks to CR and Tanta for a great blog!
mbartv | 11.30.08 - 1:48 pm | #

peAkcredit writes:
Hey Michael: you're in the wrong place.
peAkcredit | 11.30.08 - 1:48 pm | #

bad news bears writes:
I was reading an opinion columnist in the NYTimes and the gist : While we are what is the worst financial (credit) crisis since the Great Depression, it is not showing up with any force yet on the streets and in our living rooms. Therefore most folks go : Huh? What me worry?

Thus we get trolls here whom question the qualitative and quantitative analysis of CR and Tanta and those whom post comments here and proclaim all as utter rubbish and pure, greed induced fear-mongering.

There is a lot of winding of some very complex financial debt instruments yet to come. Perhaps we will start seeing more "real" evidence of the crisis.

The trolls underestimate the sheer scale of the problem and how much taxpayer money is being thrown at the problem. Add what appears to be a deflationary spiral and said trolls may find themselves feeling the situation may directly in and around their backsides.
bad news bears | 11.30.08 - 1:51 pm | #

ScoProLaw writes:
Will this clock have ponies come out of it at the stroke of midnight?
Because that would be kind of neat-o.
ScoProLaw | 11.30.08 - 1:51 pm | #

cd writes:
GF runs flagship nordstroms store..
her assesment, traffic high, better sales than last couple months, not close to last year..take it for what it is..

Everyone here knows what the media will say about this wknd..better than anticipated, strong sales and traffic..etc etc..

The trampling incident shows how sheeple are more prevalent then people..
cd | 11.30.08 - 1:52 pm | #

mp writes:
"Top Five"

Here are the top TWO:

Liquidation of the financial sector.
Financial sector transparency.
mp | 11.30.08 - 1:52 pm | #

bgates writes:
"What are the top 5?"

- employment stabilizing
- commodity prices stabilizing, while rising very gently
- the 2000bp gap between treasuries and high-yield getting muuuuuuuch smaller
- a notable trend towards transparency in banks
- lowering deficits seen at the state and federal level

just a guess, in no particular order
bgates | 11.30.08 - 1:52 pm | #

bobn writes:
Was the buying public only buying lost leaders?

We did that on November 4th. Happens every 2 years or so.
bobn | Homepage | 11.30.08 - 1:53 pm | #

cent21 writes:
They will be dismal; but will they be as dismal as they ought to be, given the background of $Trillions of losses on leveraged assets?


I still see a real economy, ex real estate and American cars, that is stronger than might be expected given the lousy backdrop.
cent21 | Homepage | 11.30.08 - 1:54 pm | #

Comrade Kristina writes:
I like the top two on that list but I'm still puzzling over the electrical stimulation...It's "conjuring" up all kinds of interesting and even some vengeful type of scenarios in my mind.
Comrade Kristina | 11.30.08 - 1:54 pm | #

cd writes:
MP-Satchel Paige quote...thanks..
I like this one..

sometimes I sits and thinks and sometimes I just sit..
cd | 11.30.08 - 1:54 pm | #

Barley writes:
Australia:

Centro, the country's second largest retail landlord after Westfield, was the first victim of the credit crunch

Centro has about $2.3 billion of debt that must be rolled over by December 15, as well as $US450 million ($688 million) owed to private US-based noteholders that will also fall due.

"In the event that the lending group does not extend the agreements, Centro would be in default of its debt covenants. The implications of this potential scenario include the possibility that Centro will be placed into administration or receivership

http://business.smh.com.au/busin...81128- 6myq.html
Barley | 11.30.08 - 1:55 pm | #

mp writes:
Conjure Bag adds, "Bush finally got something right."

"This sucker *is* going down."
mp | 11.30.08 - 1:55 pm | #

Allen C writes:
Thanks for the MS post on QE and the Zimbabwe post. The RB of Zimbabwe piece is from April.

I'm less concerned with holiday sales. What is the landscape for next year? The Fed can't create real income to pay down debt behind inflated assets. The deleveraging will continue and the negative feedback will intensify. I find it difficult to envision getting through this without significant liquidation.

Any sound monetary or fiscal approach has to recognize that massive losses are out there and require realization at some point AND that the last few years of GDP were based largely on unsustainable debt creation. This recognition has yet to materialize appreciably.
Allen C | 11.30.08 - 1:55 pm | #

squeezed writes:
the first depression to be called by economists. (delong and roubini)
squeezed | 11.30.08 - 1:55 pm | #

bgates writes:
" AND that the last few years of GDP were based largely on unsustainable debt creation."

more like last 28 years - that was when GHW issued his "voodoo economics" line, and that is right around the time salomon bros cooked up the first large-scale securitized mortgages.
bgates | 11.30.08 - 1:57 pm | #

Eric writes:
Global depression cannot realistically be averted at this point. We passed the tipping point months ago. Now all we can do is wait until things will continue to deteriorate.

I take this to mean you followed through at reloaded your shorts at the end of last week?
Eric | 11.30.08 - 1:58 pm | #

cd writes:
Southeast asia is getting very interesting...

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/ 20081...ical_unrest_175
cd | 11.30.08 - 1:59 pm | #

Greg Weston writes:
I have visited the local Mervyn's twice since they started their final bankruptcy sale. Both times more employees than customers were there, and the customers were mostly browsing.

The only thing I bought were a pair of new balance running shoes that rarely are discounted.

I also stopped in at a Circuit City. The store was amazingly disorganized. Probably 20% of items did not have a price marked, and almost everything was vastly overpriced.

The computers in the store used by staff were so old they had monochrome green monitors.
Greg Weston | Homepage | 11.30.08 - 1:59 pm | #

cd writes:
eric, I think you get out of gate pump tomorrow..
reload afterwards...
cd | 11.30.08 - 2:00 pm | #

squeezed writes:
*Liquidation of the financial sector.

*Financial sector transparency.

Also two things that the us government has been desperate to avert.
squeezed | 11.30.08 - 2:01 pm | #

Basel Too writes:
Centro has about $2.3 billion of debt that must be rolled over by December 15, as well as $US450 million ($688 million) owed to private US-based noteholders that will also fall due.

One-two punch of credit crisis and currency depreciation. This is gonna get really ugly for the emerging markets and commodities-dependent countries.
Basel Too | 11.30.08 - 2:02 pm | #

RhodesianGreenbackinAZ writes:
Would one of the options traders here please recommend a few 101 / primer sites or blogs? I have some play money ... around $1000, that I'd like to mess with using options to bet on some of these declines and am interested in learning some basics. TIA.
RhodesianGreenbackinAZ | 11.30.08 - 2:02 pm | #

bgates writes:
that is a bit redundant, insofar as the latter will inevitably lead to the former
bgates | 11.30.08 - 2:02 pm | #

mp writes:
"Also two things that the us government has been desperate to avert."

And *that's* why we're moving closer to a reckoning.
mp | 11.30.08 - 2:02 pm | #

bgates writes:
"This is gonna get really ugly for the emerging markets and commodities-dependent countries."

ADRE, RSX and EEM (and EWA for that matter) have already priced this in. I thnk they're a buy at the lows they hit a week or so ago (which they are currently 20% above, for the most part).
bgates | 11.30.08 - 2:04 pm | #

Michael writes:
peAKcreadit wrote: "CR: Your research, data and news presentation repeatedly shows me how the unfolding credit collapse can be analyzed without hysteria, bad news or inciting of fear.

Thanks for providing the structure where such a unique discussion can flourish amidst a never-ending wave of self-serving misinformation and lies from congress, federal officials, the MSM and non-critical thinkers.'

Hey peAkcredit,

I think I see a lot of brown around your mouth. Was it good?
Michael | 11.30.08 - 2:04 pm | #

Mentalic writes:
Even though estimated sales rose 3%, the real test would be the number of returns... If the % of returns is more than last year, then its not really that good...
Mentalic | 11.30.08 - 2:05 pm | #

MrM writes:
Liquidation of the financial sector.

Liquidation or nationalization?

I am not sure what liquidation of the financial sector would bring except hundreds of thousands of newly unemployed and paralysis of global trade
MrM | 11.30.08 - 2:07 pm | #

the poster fomerly known as ni writes:
Even if there is 0% returns (not happenin', of course)..if real rate of inflation is 5%, or more...means a net -2% "growth".
the poster fomerly known as ni | 11.30.08 - 2:07 pm | #

Lothar the Rottweiler writes:
Did Bloomberg win their FOIA argument yet?

mp... am i barking close to the correct tree?
Lothar the Rottweiler | 11.30.08 - 2:07 pm | #

mp writes:
Conjure says, "They should have nationalized the shadow banking system and allowed all of this world's Rubins to founder."

"$7 trillion has better uses."
mp | 11.30.08 - 2:08 pm | #

bgates writes:
" I'd like to mess with using options to bet on some of these declines and am interested in learning some basics."

consider using leveraged negative ETFs like LQD, SRS, DUG, SDS, SKF. they are very popular because they give a chance to get negative action without playing options. options offer the chance for nice payouts, but you are paying for the volatility which the market has recently seen, and you only make money to the degree that market action exceeds the future prices implied in the pricing. basically, if you buy out of the money puts, the market could be quite bad, but not bad enough to make the position a winner. the same goes, to a lesser degree, when you're in the money - the premium you pay may already have a a 15% decline priced in, so unless you see more of a move than that (or successfully sell these different expectations to the next player), they do nothing for you.
bgates | 11.30.08 - 2:08 pm | #

mp writes:
"mp... am i barking close to the correct tree?"

Yes.
mp | 11.30.08 - 2:09 pm | #

Allen C writes:
"more like last 28 years"

The increase in debt creation occurred well before '2000, but the further increase and acceleration sent us over the edge. Why isn't this critical variable along with debt coverage considered and debated in the overall context? Crazy. Greenspan called the bottom in Q4/2006. Scary.
Allen C | 11.30.08 - 2:10 pm | #

the poster fomerly known as ni writes:
Lothar...can you expand, pls?
the poster fomerly known as ni | 11.30.08 - 2:10 pm | #

RhodesianGreenbackinAZ writes:
@bgates | 11.30.08 - 2:08 pm | #

That was a helpful explanation. Thanks.
RhodesianGreenbackinAZ | 11.30.08 - 2:10 pm | #

bgates writes:
"I am not sure what liquidation of the financial sector would bring except hundreds of thousands of newly unemployed and paralysis of global trade"

as opposed to a material worsening of the environment and a 10 trillion dollar liability with zero transparency, to be paid off over the next fifty years?

I wonder if Patton was worried about all of the folks in the Wehrmacht being unemployed when Berlin fell.
bgates | 11.30.08 - 2:11 pm | #

Comrade Byzantine_Ruins writes:
Listen to the evil lemur, folks.
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins | Homepage | 11.30.08 - 2:11 pm | #

mp writes:
"Liquidation or nationalization?"

Both. All of them would have become debtors in possession. The inefficient money and people would have been vaporized.

Efficient money and efficient people would have taken over.
mp | 11.30.08 - 2:11 pm | #

bgates writes:
my pleasure, and i do approve of your approach, seeing a small stake as tuition and then getting in the game is always the best way to learn.
bgates | 11.30.08 - 2:11 pm | #

bad news bears writes:
Michael. Either get a clue or find another site to troll.

Being a dumb ass and rude will just get you banned in the end.

No one likes trolls. They are stinky.
bad news bears | 11.30.08 - 2:12 pm | #

bgates writes:
"Why isn't this critical variable along with debt coverage considered and debated in the overall context?"

Because no one wants to confront the concept that debt itself is socially corrosive.

the combination of deficit-financing at the federal level under reagan and the severing of the link between local mortgages and local s&ls set this in motion in that era. acceleration was inevitable.
bgates | 11.30.08 - 2:20 pm | #

Michael writes:
bad news bears,

Just because you do not like what I have to say does not make me a troll. I have a right to express myself just as mush as peAKcredit does.

As far as financial deleveraging, it will happen but it will not be the end of the world. Pyramid Schemes, like the latest credit bubble, have happened all the time and things have stabilized. The bottom line is, people were not really rich during the credit bubble and they are not really that much worse off than they were in 2002. I know things are supposed to get better all the time but I do not see a reason to scream doom and gloom at the top of my lungs just because you can't get a home equity line of credit to buy a Mercedes anymore. And, for your own sake, if you have to reply, say something sane and intellectually honest.
Michael | 11.30.08 - 2:20 pm | #

fooj writes:
And who is this conjure many of you speak of? Link?
fooj | 11.30.08 - 2:20 pm | #

MrM writes:
Debtors in possesion come in with fresh capital. Who would provide it this time in sufficient amount?

I guess the recipe is nationalization of
1) Money center banks (C, BAC, JPM, WFC) to ensure settlement of payments and facilitation of trade
2) Players with big derivative books (GS, MS, BLK) to ensure their orderly unwind

States will need federal help to deal with insurance companies
MrM | 11.30.08 - 2:21 pm | #

bgates writes:
Michael, I hate to feed trolls, and please don't take this personally - but you're a complete fucking idiot that shouldn't be allowed near a keyboard for a few years.
bgates | 11.30.08 - 2:23 pm | #

squeezed writes:
conjure is a furry bag of gris gris who likes versace clad stock analysts and cats.
squeezed | 11.30.08 - 2:24 pm | #

MrM writes:
I wonder if Patton was worried about all of the folks in the Wehrmacht being unemployed when Berlin fell.

Marshall did
MrM | 11.30.08 - 2:24 pm | #

Comrade Kristina writes:
Michael, if you dislike doom and gloom so much you could always hang out on the Yahoo Stock boards with the pump monkeys. The fact is, doom and gloom are warranted. The issue isn't being able to buy a Mercedes, the issue is whether farmers will be able to gain a line of credit to get their crops brought in and a new crop planted. You do like food I'm assuming?
Comrade Kristina | 11.30.08 - 2:24 pm | #

Plantagenet writes:
"Also two things that the us government has been desperate to avert." I.e., liquidation and transparency.

I see nothing in Obama that will hold off the clock, at least in these two areas. I re-read Volker's recent speech, and while he states the sources of problems, he in no way takes a stand in favor of steps one and two.
Plantagenet | 11.30.08 - 2:25 pm | #

Comrade Kristina writes:
Somehow I knew Conjure would like cats, I don't trust anyone that doesn't like cats.
Comrade Kristina | 11.30.08 - 2:25 pm | #

the poster fomerly known as ni writes:
Comrade Kristina,

I vaguely recall you saying something about tending bar..still doing that? If so, how's biz?

Here in Chicago, bar/rest. biz is pretty bad.
the poster fomerly known as ni | 11.30.08 - 2:27 pm | #

bgates writes:
"Marshall did"

true. and that bailout sure looks cheap relative to the current one no matter how one represents 1948 dollars, doesn't it? except this europe only exists in the mind, much like the WMDs in the sand six years ago.
bgates | 11.30.08 - 2:28 pm | #

squeezed writes:
kristina,
mp can correct me but i recall that conjure is a great fan of neighborhood pets in general.
squeezed | 11.30.08 - 2:29 pm | #

bgates writes:
"he in no way takes a stand in favor of steps one and two"

no, and i think that those of us who hold nostalgia for his defense of the dollar 20 years ago misread the current situation. he's as connected with the NY Fed as anyone, and that is the source of this medicine which is 100x worse than the disease.
bgates | 11.30.08 - 2:30 pm | #

Comrade Kristina writes:
PFKasni,
Yes, I am. Business is awful, the worst I've ever seen it and I have been bartending for the better part of two decades. Sales down by 30% or so as well as tips. Getting lots of pennies, nickels and dimes left on the bar in lieu of paper money tips.
Comrade Kristina | 11.30.08 - 2:30 pm | #

MrM writes:
that bailout sure looks cheap relative to the current one no matter how one represents 1948 dollars, doesn't it?

Yep - the Marshal Plan was cheaper and actually was a plan, instead of a series of uncontrolled knee-jerk reactions
MrM | 11.30.08 - 2:30 pm | #

citizen energyecon writes:
Michael,

Please provide signal or STFU - you are here generating noise ATM - tossing around assertions without backup or engaging in ad hominem attacks then crying First Amendment when you get called on it. Tiresome and all too familiar...
citizen energyecon | Homepage | 11.30.08 - 2:31 pm | #

nova writes:
mp,

This global depression thing. Sounds like a bummer but what does it have to do with me?
nova | 11.30.08 - 2:32 pm | #

Allen C writes:
"Because no one wants to confront the concept that debt itself is socially corrosive."

Debt is invaluable if creditors, debtors, and the associated intermediaries approach it conservatively.
Allen C | 11.30.08 - 2:32 pm | #

the poster fomerly known as ni writes:
Kristina,

If not too personal a question...is the place you work at a "high end" place, or more a neighborhood "watering hole"?
the poster fomerly known as ni | 11.30.08 - 2:33 pm | #

citizen energyecon writes:
nova,

See the CK comment on do you like to eat above... ;-)
citizen energyecon | Homepage | 11.30.08 - 2:33 pm | #

bgates writes:
And crack is a great party drug if one just sees it as a way to take the edge of on the weekend with just a rock or two.
bgates | 11.30.08 - 2:34 pm | #