dumb canuck writes:
ouch
dumb canuck | 05.14.08 - 8:34 pm | #

Nio-Rio writes:
Was just in Vegas, yes it has to be worse. The Cosmopolitan development just filed for bankruptcy.

Go look at what 3,000 per month buys in vegas, compare that to a 1,200 sq ft of condo space. Did any actual buyers ever show up? Or were they all flippers?

Let's compare --
This: http://lasvegas.craigslist.org/a.../ 679627842.html

Or a condo..
Nio-Rio | 05.14.08 - 8:39 pm | #

Angel De Fuego writes:
I am not impressed by any info here on this page.
Money is the root of all evil, So this Blog is evil.
Angel De Fuego | Homepage | 05.14.08 - 8:39 pm | #

FinanceGuy writes:
One lesson I have learned observing real estate cycles on the west coast for about twenty years. When the cycle turns down condos are toxic.
FinanceGuy | 05.14.08 - 8:43 pm | #

Dumb Canuck writes:
come on - it's only an 7.4 year supply of condos. we've got something similar, but to a lesser extent happening up here in the north. The bubble is just starting to burst, but it will happen first in new condos.
Dumb Canuck | 05.14.08 - 8:44 pm | #

charlie writes:
Haven't you heard?
The housing crisis is over.

You need to relearn basic economics. Adding 6000 units and selling 4800 means prices are no longer going down. Supply and demand models are no longer valid. We're in a new paradigm.
charlie | 05.14.08 - 8:44 pm | #

Josh writes:
There are quite a few dynamics at work in downtown Chicago. I'm a '96 gentrifier in the near south side, now living out of state now but holding on to my unit where I've had friends and family living for almost nothing now for 7 years.

The obvious dynamics are downtown in the biggest city for hundreds of miles, gas prices, and the national real estate and credit problems.

The less obvious dynamics include:
a.) Chicago, Cook County and Illinois generally being tax and spend disasters with tremendous corruption;
b.) a huge number of former Chicagoans living in (pushed out to) the distant suburbs in the decades of flight.

If Chicago, Cook County and Illinois generally would get their acts together, downtown Chicago would be the best deal in the country for urbanites and wanna-be urbanites. Unfortunately, thats not likely.

So its a toss up. But if anywhere in Chicago will do well, I'd put my money on downtown. Unfortunately, being the best player on a losing team doesn't make you a winner.

Couldn't help but notice some of the places in the article today. Bronzeville is not downtown or even near-south side, its south of Cermak and even south of 31st street. 600 north lake shore drive has been a condo/residential area for decades, so no way are units there reflective of fallout particular to the credit bubble.

Unfortunately, the near south and near west sides are largely results of recent booms, though the development started well before 2000 with people like me.
Josh | 05.14.08 - 8:47 pm | #

Puzzle Finished writes:
West Coast tsunami about to hit: http://langley-financial-plannin...g.blogspot.com/
Puzzle Finished | 05.14.08 - 8:47 pm | #

ac writes:

Some interesting articles starting to crop up:


U.S. Investors Say It's Time to Buy Stocks; Favor Asia, Energy

Close to half of affluent U.S. investors see the stock market as a buy, with energy as the industry and Asia as the region to be in.

The annual Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times poll of investors found that 44 percent of those with household incomes of $100,000 or more viewed it as a good time to buy stocks, versus 15 percent who said it isn't. The benchmark Standard & Poor's 500 index has declined 10 percent from its record high in October.

``Any time prices come down, that's typically been the time to buy,'' said Phyllis Hamm, 59, a survey participant who works at a nonprofit group in Raleigh, North Carolina.

The poll results signal some Americans may be ready to shift part of the $3.5 trillion parked in money market funds into equities. The confidence also indicates they anticipate limited spillover among stocks from the financial crisis that has led to $335 billion of losses and writedowns in that industry.

``There's plenty of ammunition out there for an equity rally later this year,'' said Joseph Quinlan, chief market strategist in New York for the investment-management unit of Bank of America Corp., which oversees $643 billion in client assets...


Japanese, Swiss Stock Investors Become More Bullish

Japanese, Swiss and Brazilian stocks may rise in the next six months, and investors in most of the rest of the world's biggest markets are growing less convinced equities will fall, a survey of Bloomberg users showed...

``Sentiment globally is picking up,'' said Lawrence Peterman, investment director at Eden Financial Ltd. in London, who participated in the survey. ``The largest part of the bad news may be with us already, especially with the financials, so it adds to the feeling that we may have seen the worst.'' ...

A separate survey this month by New York-based Merrill Lynch & Co. showed money managers who together oversee $615 billion became less pessimistic about equities as concern the global economy will fall into a recession eased. A net 5 percent of Merrill's respondents were ``underweight'' stocks, down from 13 percent in April and 23 percent in March.

The Bloomberg stock confidence index climbed to 51.1 in Japan this month from 46.8 in April. Readings above 50 indicate that more users expect stocks in their country to rise than to decline in the next six months...


Recession? Not So Fast, Say Some
Despite Pain, Economists Begin
Dialing Back Dire Forecasts

A funny thing happened to the economy on its way to recession: It's taken a detour.

That, at least, is the view of a growing number of economists -- including some who not long ago were saying a recession was all but inevitable. They note that stock and credit markets have steadily improved since the Federal Reserve intervened to keep Bear Stearns Cos. from bankruptcy in early March, while a series of economic reports have been stronger than expected.

"A couple months ago it seemed like we were on the abyss," said Jay Bryson, global economist with Wachovia Corp., referring to the seizing up of credit markets and the collapse of Bear Stearns. "Things have changed....The numbers we've seen recently haven't been as bad as we were led to believe just a few months ago."...

CHANGING BAROMETER

• The News: Retail sales, excluding autos and parts, were surprisingly firm in April.
• The Upshot: Consumer spending and the U.S. economy continue to grow, suggesting recession is not a foregone conclusion.
• The Risks: It could be that the data will worsen in coming months, raising the risk of a shallow but lengthy recession.Economists also cite swift policy responses, including a sharp reduction in interest rates by the Fed -- to 2% from 5.25% last September -- and the distribution of fiscal-stimulus checks to millions of Americans, as factors possibly easing the downturn.

Bob Ruhloff writes:
Last summer and fall I was working doing kitchen layout and design in Chicago, and did designs and quotes for 46 condo units for one developer. In fall, I saw one of his developments (of 24 units), where only one kitchen had been installed. The realtor at the open house for the single finished condo told me that the other 23 units were being held back until spring, when they anticipated that the market would improve. At another site of 13 units, all work had stopped in September of 2007. I would guess that a substantial number of units will not be finished, for years.
Bob Ruhloff | 05.14.08 - 8:51 pm | #

trader walt writes:
I disagree with a lot of Josh's conclusions.

CNN named the South Loop of Chicago the second best place for retirement living in the US. In my condo building we have several "empty nesters" who recently bought units. Other condo buildings report similar numbers of people moving downtown from the 'burbs. People like being able to walk to the symphony, Art Institute, and the Opera. They also appreciate having many summer activities in nearby Grant Park. There are 5 universities within ¼ mile.

Chicago has always been called the city that works and it still does.
trader walt | 05.14.08 - 9:05 pm | #

trader walt writes:
Oops. here's the link to the CNN article I cited:

http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2...moneymag/ 3.html
trader walt | 05.14.08 - 9:08 pm | #

Derek writes:
Look. 4.5 years ago I rented a 2 bedroom at damon and diversey(lakeview on the Lincoln park edge). Right accross the street from the getto(housing projects for the country bumpkins). $1050 a month which was a complete steal at the time. most other 2 beds in area were $1300-$2000 a month.

My landlord would not give me more than a 8 month lease because his dreams of grandjuire about tearing down the two flat and building a 6 flat and selling them as condo's. Well the entire neiborhood landlords had the same dream.

1 bed's condo were listing at 299k+ at the time. 2 bed's were listing at 399k-400k. 3 beds listing were 350k-600k.

I told him that it was a bubble and he should reconsider tearing this 2 flat down. He laughed at me. He then explained how he got back from Florida and many empty condo's on market in south florida but not Chicago. I explained to him Chicago is next due to greed and overbuilding.

Guess what that 6 flat is still empty today. Drive by yourself if you do not beleive me. It is on the south side of the street. He can not say he wasn't warned. I bet he lost everything. Polish Fool.

Guess what? They are still not lowering prices? Stubborn idiots. Sometimes you have to hit the fools in heads with a 2x4 before they wake up.
Derek | 05.14.08 - 9:17 pm | #

Danny writes:
Chicago's market did not see the insane run up in prices that many other places did. While they will not get out without some damage, it will be minimal compared to what the coasts will see. Certainly, some questionable developments in lesser areas will fail, but demand is still high in the most desirable places in the city. I would expect the ridiculous expansion of Chicago's suburbs to fare much more poorly.
Danny | 05.14.08 - 9:21 pm | #

rich writes:
>There are probably many areas with similar or worse numbers for new condos - like San Diego, Miami, Las Vegas, Orange County and more.

Don't forget Atlanta.
rich | 05.14.08 - 9:21 pm | #

Salomon writes:
The stats in New York look similarly grim. I can't speak to the sales numbers, but inventory of new condos is climbing. If I remember correctly, there are something like 12,000 new units coming on-line in 2008 (from New York magazine or Roubini, ...can't remember). Also, if I remember correctly, that would set a record.

One thing's for certain though - my memory isn't very good.
Salomon | Homepage | 05.14.08 - 9:22 pm | #

VHB writes:
Current in Vancouver, there are 8739 condos for sale. Average monthly condo sales over the past 12 (very hot market) months have been 1356.

So, only a 6.4 month MOI, using the trailing sales number. (Of course, if sales were to drop by 40% from peak . . .)

Of course, there are also 20,639 condo units under construction. (picture)

But don't worry. Most of those have already been presold. No problem.
VHB | 05.14.08 - 9:23 pm | #

J. Bridges writes:
Sorry to re-post my comment from the last thread, but Trader Walt, I beg to differ...

Looking out from my terrace in Chicago's South Loop (been here since '03), I see an empty recent condo-loft conversion, a 20-story concrete tower under construction, a 5-story, mostly empty new construction, and a cleared/guarded empty lot 'awaiting' a new building underwritten by MB Financial.

For all the talk of how Chicago and other cities avoided the bubble of Miami/Vegas/San Diego, one fact remains: Even if credit were back to the NINJA loan days, THEY OVER-BUILT by an enormous margin. And, whatever the NAR or NAHB idiots say, this supply glut is not getting worked off for YEARS. The math is simple: supply mushrooms, as credit contracts, the pool of potential of buyers shrivels, and demand dives along with prices.

Obviously, the readership of CR are not a bunch of bottom-callers, but from where I stand, in a market with a decent economy, we're no where near the makings of a recovery.
J. Bridges | Homepage | 05.14.08 - 9:33 pm | #

Derek writes:
This is a comment for Trader Walt. First off there is a crazy gang war going on right now on the south side of Chicago. Why don't you go ask CNN about that you jack@ss.

Murder's this year are double of last year and breaking all record in total for the most in the United States EVER.

You are obviously not from Chi-town. Chicago has consistently been the Murder Capital of the United States in total murders or at least in the top 3 spots for the last 10+ years.

Like my brother tatoo shirt says. Jade Dragon tatoo Chicago, "Murder Capital of the US, "This isn't F'in Kanasas Dorthy."

Guess were all those murder take place dorthy? The south side of Chicago. Guess what. Bronsville is a sh@t hole. Guess what neighboorhood it is close to? A little hood called Englewood. And may I add surronded by projects. 100 highschool kids have been murder this year in that neighborhood.

I bet you would not survive a week on the south side of chicago.

I was recently in Rio De Janerio which is a rough town or can be. I would take my chances there anyday compared to the south side of chicago.

Fool
Derek | 05.14.08 - 9:36 pm | #

carol writes:
haha. i used to work in the Chicago loop. a one bedroom condo for half a million? In crime ridden neighborhood?

I told my ex-coworker and she (as cheap as she is) insisted that after the tax advantage, the condo was worth it.
carol | 05.14.08 - 9:40 pm | #

FFDIC writes:
Update on Jay-Yello:

Fed's Yellen Says Key Rate Is Probably Low Enough
http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/b...r=1& oref=slogin
FFDIC | 05.14.08 - 9:41 pm | #

sdtfs writes:
Well, Derek convinced me not to move to Chicago,...anyone else?
sdtfs | 05.14.08 - 9:42 pm | #

ac writes:

I am not impressed by any info here on this page.

Money is the root of all evil, So this Blog is evil.

Money isn't the root of all evil. It merely represents the wealth and power that we humans desire beyond all else. In that regard money brings out the worst humanity has to offer. The worst "evil" we commit are is often done for the sake of money.

Money isn't the root of all evil. It merely represents the wealth and power that we humans desire beyond all else. In that regard it motivates us to do things we would never otherwise do. Properly channeled the great force of those selfish desires can instead be the motivation for the sort of mass collaborative efforts that have produced so many of the "good" things that have extended our lives, dragged most of us out of poverty, given people some degree of opportunity commensurate with then individual merit, etc.

The "evil" of money is in part why 4 out of 5 of your children aren't dead by the age of 7.

Alas, most of us humans won't put any great effort in pursuing some goal for the common good.

That's just the way it is.

So to achieve some good in the real world you have to channel those dark motives that drive so many of us using money because that's the only way to get people out of bed in the morning.

Money isn't the root of all evil the root of all evil. Money isn't the root of all good.

Money is the root of all evil the root of all evil. Money is the root of all good.

Think of it kind of like a chainsaw, and that's all you've got.

Cut up some timber to build a town or Texas Chainsaw Massacre?

Good. Evil. Good. Evil...

ac | 05.14.08 - 9:47 pm | #

trader walt writes:
J. Bridges, I've commented several times on this blog about the large number of condo buildings under construction or recently completed and mostly unoccupied in the South Loop. There are at least 6 in a 1/4 mile radius. Clearly that's a lot of new construction.

Derek, there is no gang war here in the South Loop.
trader walt | 05.14.08 - 9:49 pm | #

VennData writes:
This thing has been growing weekly for a year (very thinly participated too.)

http://chicago.chicagotribune.il...oreclosure.com/

...so they're all heading REO. LaSalle Bank's got enough REOs to full DuSable harbor.

From designer condos in Sreeterville (City Hall's very worried about the emptiness of South Loop, Walt) to conversions in Ukrainian Village, from West Loop twelve-plexes to tear downs in Ravenswood, the price collapse will only be rivaled by the damage wrought by Mrs. O'Leary's cow.
VennData | 05.14.08 - 9:50 pm | #

carol writes:
Did somebody just mentioned that senior citizens will enjoy the south loop?

I guess I can see that. They don't ever need to get out of the house, do they? so long as they don't go out, they can live in crime ridden neighborhood with subzero tempratures. All they have to pay is the giant heating bill and the 10% local sales tax. I can see that.
carol | 05.14.08 - 9:50 pm | #

Derek writes:
Money is not the root of all Evil. Greed is the root of all Evil. Money is just a instrument of greed.
Derek | 05.14.08 - 9:52 pm | #

transient writes:
SBA loans plummet:

http://www.businessweek.com/ smal...0514_906016.htm
transient | 05.14.08 - 9:54 pm | #

FFDIC writes:
Volcker Warns of Precedent Set by Fed Moves
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2...t-by-fed-moves/
Volcker Says Fed Interventions Risk Political Battles
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/ne...k& refer=economy
FFDIC | 05.14.08 - 9:56 pm | #

Derek writes:
South loop is a cra@p hole with overpriced condo's next to projects and gangbangers selling crack on the corners at night. And yes there is a gang war going on the south side right now. The south loop is part of the south side of Chicago you know where bad bad leroy brown is from. badest man in the whole damn town
Derek | 05.14.08 - 9:56 pm | #

ac writes:

Money is not the root of all Evil. Greed is the root of all Evil. Money is just a instrument of greed.

Greed is why we get up in the morning and go to work.

It's why we have the economy we have.

Sure it would be nice if there were a better way.

But until we can change human nature we have to deal with that reality.

Unfortunately I think we've gotten to the point where the greed has broken out of its cage and now does far more harm than good.

This is the lesson that Bernanke doesn't understand IMO.

Just like fire and electricity are both deadly and immensely beneficial, so is that energy embodied in us human beings.

ac | 05.14.08 - 10:00 pm | #

sdtfs writes:
FWIW- the quotation is:

1 Timothy 6:10
For the love of money is a root of all sorts of evil,
sdtfs | 05.14.08 - 10:00 pm | #

ac writes:

Roots are the money of all evil.

ac | 05.14.08 - 10:03 pm | #

FFDIC writes:
Reuters
Banks turned markets into "monster": German president
"We have to hold up a mirror to the finance world. They have deeply embarrassed themselves. And I still have not heard a clearly audible mea culpa."
http://www.reuters.com/article/ o...436810920080514
FFDIC | 05.14.08 - 10:03 pm | #

J. Bridges writes:
Derek,

Judging by your delightful disposition, and tolerant views, I'd say you're from Bridgeport? Yes?

By the way, there aren't that many projects left, so you seem to be pining for the '90s when Taylor, Stateway,etc. still dominated S. State.

For all the trolls throwing bombs at Chicago, it's still a great, livable city. That is something we can agree on Trader Walt.
J. Bridges | Homepage | 05.14.08 - 10:04 pm | #

Anonymous writes:
"Money is the root of all evil"

Nope. WASP LEG, The seven deadly's Pride leads to the fall.

Wrath
Avarice
Sloth
pride

Lust
Envy
Gluttony
Anonymous | 05.14.08 - 10:06 pm | #

Derek writes:
I coin my own literiture. I could care a less about Timothy 6:10 my phraze makes more sense.
Derek | 05.14.08 - 10:06 pm | #

dk writes:
Bridgeport will be the next Wicker Park.
dk | 05.14.08 - 10:08 pm | #

FFDIC writes:
Derek,
Did Charles Darwin ever interview you?
FFDIC | 05.14.08 - 10:09 pm | #

Speed Racer writes:
I'm surprised nobody jumped all over this.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080514/e...14/ economy.html

My favorite quote:

"For April, energy prices were unchanged and gasoline prices even fell by 2 percent, a decline that would strike motorists as strange, given that they have been watching the price of gasoline rise relentlessly in recent weeks.

However, since gasoline prices normally rise in April, the 5.6 percent increase in gasoline prices for the month was turned into a 2 percent drop after the government adjusted for normal seasonal variations -- little comfort to people now paying pump prices that hit a new national record of $3.758 per gallon on Thursday, up nearly 40 cents in the past month."

With manipulation like that it is impossible for this country to fall into a recession.
Speed Racer | 05.14.08 - 10:10 pm | #

Derek writes:
I agree that Chicago is the graetest city in the United States in the summer. I would not want to be anywhere else in US. But let us be realistic about the South Side and stop the sugar coating
Derek | 05.14.08 - 10:10 pm | #

Anonymouse writes:
rich: "But until we can change human nature we have to deal with that reality."

Human nature is whatever you want. But are humans inclined to act selfishly and greedily toward others rather than benevolently and altruistically?

Thought experiment: You're looking out the window onto a street during a hot Summer day and notice a small child enjoying an ice cream cone. Suddenly a man approaches the child, grabs the ice cream cone, and pushes the child into the gutter. Do you say to yourself, "Now there's a typical act of human nature." Or do you recognize it as pathological?

The problem with our society and its political economy is that its institutions are designed to bring out the worst in human nature. So even if one were to believe that humans have a tendency toward pathological behavior, why have institutions that bring the worst of humans out, like greed and selfishness?

These are important questions that, unfortunately and understandably, we seldom ask.
Anonymouse | 05.14.08 - 10:19 pm | #

Paper Boy writes:
How about some mortgage tabloid?

TROUBLE IN LI PARADISE: New York Post

You can check out who is being foreclosed.
Paper Boy | Homepage | 05.14.08 - 10:20 pm | #

ac writes:

"For April, energy prices were unchanged and gasoline prices even fell by 2 percent, a decline that would strike motorists as strange, given that they have been watching the price of gasoline rise relentlessly in recent weeks.

They must be getting their data on gasoline prices from the OFHEO.

ac | 05.14.08 - 10:20 pm | #

Derek writes:
FFDIC,

I apologize for my crudeness in my commentaries.

I am tied of the housing lies and the related fraud/crimes that have happened or are about to happen.

I understand your pun saying I have not evolved because of your Charles Darwin comment.

When people sugar coat real estate for their own benefit I get short and bring reality to the table. People can not handle the truth/reality or think it is inappropriate. Some times it get to the truth must faster a stops the sugar coating.

I also remember realtors in Chicago with the much rehersed line saying, “oh no this is not a Boston or San Francisco market. Price will never decline here because they did not increase so fast. That was another candy coated lie.
Derek | 05.14.08 - 10:26 pm | #

dc1000 writes:
111th and western south side irish right here
dc1000 | 05.14.08 - 10:26 pm | #

barely writes:
walt - "Derek, there is no gang war here in the South Loop"

You know, during a recession or economic hard times, the first thing you'll notice is the borders between the have & have-nots (where the bulk of criminal activity is) seems to spread deeper into haves' teritory. I wouldn't want to be anywhere near the hood, going forward.
barely | 05.14.08 - 10:27 pm | #

Derek writes:
J-Bridges I am not sure what you have wrong about the good citizens of Bridgeport. But No I am a Nothsider and Cubs fan. I am not a Sox Fan. I am not a racisit either. I am merely telling the truth about how bad the area is but in today's world that is intolarence. Intolerance is being realistic about and/or explaining a situation? Political correctness is the next buble that is going to burst. I will coin that as well
Derek | 05.14.08 - 10:40 pm | #

Anonymouse writes:
Above directed to ac, not rich ( You're all blending into one voice AHHHHHH!!!!!1!)
Anonymouse | 05.14.08 - 10:40 pm | #

ac writes:

The problem with our society and its political economy is that its institutions are designed to bring out the worst in human nature. So even if one were to believe that humans have a tendency toward pathological behavior, why have institutions that bring the worst of humans out, like greed and selfishness?

These days, perhaps. But I believe we've accomplished too much in the past for this to always have been true.

But I do think these are uniquely despicable times.

We have a behavioral cancer spreading through our culture that's destroying economies for profit and our future prosperity along with them.

We need the cultural and economic equivalent of chemotherapy.

It may be a brutal debilitating sort of treatment that brings us close to the edge of death.

But I think the alternative is far worse, which is why I think we may need something like a Great Depression to stop the malignant rot spreading through our finances and economic structures, as well as our thinking about the world and the self-serving, socially corrosive behaviors it generates.

ac | 05.14.08 - 10:41 pm | #

franz writes:
If you want to talk condos, ask DC1000 about the NoVA condo overflow. I believe at one time Northern Virginia area was forcasting 20,000 condo units to be built. I can see that some of the units are going to be build but others are being delayed.
franz | 05.14.08 - 10:43 pm | #

Derek writes:
dc1000;

didn't mean to put a bad name on the Irish neiborhoods on the south west side. They are nice places to live. I got many Irish buddies from around there.
Derek | 05.14.08 - 10:43 pm | #

Peterpaul writes:
Most people omit the most important part of Tim;s verse:

For the love of money is the root of all evil: which while some coveted after, they have erred from the faith, and pierced themselves through with many sorrows.

it is the love of money...or greed...which is the problem.

That and our regulators enthralled with self-regulation...
Peterpaul | 05.14.08 - 10:46 pm | #

Anonymous writes:
My favorite quote "Mike Hart, regional manager of Hanley Wood Market Intelligence, said developers are inclined to sweeten their offers but not necessarily lower the sales price. He said that means more free amenities included in deals, "whether it's flooring or something in the kitchen or maybe a free washer and dryer." Good luck with that.
Anonymous | 05.14.08 - 10:47 pm | #

Derek writes:
PeterPaul,

can I get a Amen!
Derek | 05.14.08 - 10:48 pm | #

colo_boy writes:
Lakewood, Colorado is a mostly working class city that borders Denver on the West. Population is about 150,000 and median family income is $68,000. A few years back the city decided improve things by getting developers to put up a massive retail/residential project in the middle of the city.

The result is Belmar. It has won some awards for its design and is a very pleasant place. What looks like the first stage consisted of streets lined by two story buildings with retail on the ground floor and apartments above. The stores are upscale. For example NY's Metropolitan Museum of modern art has a store.

They are now trying to sell completed units. Everything seems well built, but Belmar is just a shopping center. The $million units overlook a shopping center parking lot. It appears few units are occupied.

Light rail is coming to the area but the line will be 16 blocks to the North.

I can't imagine many people in Lakewood have the incomes to buy these units. And what rich people would want to live by a shopping center parking lot?

Saturday Belmar is having an open house for lookie loos. The following is an advertisement they just sent out:


The Belmar Tour of Homes, Saturday, May 17, from 11am to 4pm.


Discover all of the living options that Belmar has to offer. Homes from the $200s to over $1 million, including:



The Residences at Belmar Plaza by Continuum Partners. Elegantly appointed homes from the mid $200s to $1 million. MOVE IN NOW!



The Lofts at Belmar Square by Trammell Crow Residential. Contemporary 1-2 bedroom condominiums from the $200s. MOVE IN NOW! ONLY A FEW REMAIN! 303.935.4300



The Courtyards at Belmar by Harvard Communities. Belmar's only single-family homes from the mid $600s. MOVE IN NOW!



Eastside Townhomes at Belmar by The Confluence Companies. Contemporary, four-level townhomes from the mid $400s. AVAILABLE MID-2008.



Belmar Residential Sales Center, 464 South Teller Street
303.742.1550



BELMARCOLORADO.COM

Wadsworth + Alameda
colo_boy | 05.14.08 - 10:50 pm | #

Shnapstafarian writes:
I am a Nothsider (sic) and a Cubs fan.

That explains everything.
Shnapstafarian | 05.14.08 - 10:50 pm | #

barely writes:
This rigged CPI report really saved the market. SP500 had quite a nice gap to fill. The PPT is everywhere.
barely | 05.14.08 - 10:57 pm | #

Reality writes:
does anyone talk about the fact that 94/294/88 are all under construction at the same time; 70 miles of freeway all under a 45mph banner.
Reality | 05.14.08 - 10:58 pm | #

barely writes:
The market was simply too fragile to take a 1.4% m/m headline CPI print. Better to revise and face the music a little later on, when the market can handle a 400pt plunge without a panic.
barely | 05.14.08 - 11:08 pm | #

Quincy k writes:
Derek-

"Polish fool"
"Irish buddies"

Tone it down.

I agree that many here live a priveleged existence and are entirely clueless on what some people are capable of.

By the way, I agree with your Rio analogy. The US houses more criminals per capita than any other country in the world. Many urban cities are about to become very violent.
Quincy k | 05.14.08 - 11:13 pm | #

Hazard writes:
Nothing wrong with the Cubs. I've been a non-fan of that team for YEARS.
Hazard | 05.14.08 - 11:18 pm | #

barely writes:
"Many urban cities are about to become very violent"

If Obama's nomination gets swiped as the Dems come to the conclusion (way too late) that he's unelectable, we might see that violence in Aug.
barely | 05.14.08 - 11:27 pm | #

yyy writes:
OT
THE SECRET BAILOUT OF JPMORGAN:
HOW INSIDER TRADING LOOTED BEAR STEARNS AND THE AMERICAN TAXPAYER


http://www.webofdebt.com/article...ing- bailout.php
yyy | 05.14.08 - 11:28 pm | #

neil writes:
Cut up some timber to build a town or Texas Chainsaw Massacre?

I like the analogy. Build more towns. I have a stockpile of popcorn.

Got Popcorn?
Neil
neil | Homepage | 05.14.08 - 11:42 pm | #

Ministry of Truth writes:
Judge rejects Countrywide's arguments: report

http://www.reuters.com/article/ o...454783320080515

The New York Times said on Wednesday that Judge Mariana Pfaelzer of U.S. District Court in Los Angeles rejected arguments made for Countrywide executives and directors that they were unaware of lax loan operations that led to ballooning defaults.
Ministry of Truth | 05.14.08 - 11:44 pm | #

Chris writes:
Last time I visited Chicago (last summer), there were Condo high rises being constructed (Trump brand on one of them). I imagine such buildings bring all of their condos to market at the same time. Also, many of them were sold before the construction began. How much of an effect is this having on those numbers? If 6,000 units come for sale in June, you can't average that to 1,000 units a month for the first 6 months.

I don't believe that Chicago is immune to the downturn, but I am curious how these developments effect the sales figures. Furthermore, to whomever said that Chicago didn't have a huge climb and is therefore not due for a steep correction: The reason it didn't get the huge climb is probably because supply kept pace with demand. Now that supply is outstripping demand, you'd better believe that a correction can come.
Chris | 05.14.08 - 11:44 pm | #

Cal writes:
There was an article in last nights WSJ about HOA's getting screwed and cutting back services or assessing increasing dues due to the foreclosure crisis. I know a local development here had to assess $600 this last year because of the lack of funds.
Cal | 05.14.08 - 11:52 pm | #

Derek writes:
yyy,

this is the best written information I have read in about 6 months. Great article. THere is always more to a story than what you can see on the surface. It is time to abolish the Federal Reserve. It is a instrument to keep the super rich super rich
Derek | 05.14.08 - 11:56 pm | #

Derek writes:
Chris,

to say there was not a huge increase in prices in CHICAGO in the last 10 years is a blaten LIE. It had a bubble just as bad. The difference is instead of a 400% increase like Boston, Florida, California it had a 220% increase. It is still ridiculous. I do not no who is still spreading these lies. Look at the condo prices. Perfect example. Land prices. Stop the Lies
Derek | 05.15.08 - 12:02 am | #

stryx writes:
I've wondered about how these condos get accounted for. Just about every large city I've been in in the past ~5 years all had CBD condo conversions in progress. Former offices, warehouses, banks, etc. being converted to condos. I was excited to see all of the investment in central city housing, but on reflection it was probably mostly shakily financed boom dreams.

So what happens now? Are we going to have overbuilt housing downtown everywhere?
stryx | 05.15.08 - 12:23 am | #

stryx writes:
And I wish more cities in the US had sites like http://chicago.everyblock.com/crime/

formerly chicagocrime.org. You can search and map crimes by date,neighborhood, zip, type...
stryx | 05.15.08 - 12:42 am | #

J. Bridges writes:
Derek,

Your logic, among other things, needs a little work. I never said I had anything against you, or the fine patronage-loving residents of Bridgeport. If you haven't read "Boss," by M. Royko, I suggest you go and do so, before painting me a PC-Cop, or testing my knowledge of Chicago's neighborhoods/history/culture.

"I am merely telling the truth about how bad the area is but in today's world that is intolarence. Intolerance is being realistic about and/or explaining a situation? Political correctness is the next buble that is going to burst. I will coin that as well"

Um. Not even going to start picking that rubbish apart. You certainly aren't going to prick the bubble of rational or thoughtful discourse...

The nature of this blog is to spur discussion and debate. To state an opinion that differs from yours is to neither lie, nor sugar coat. Absent facts or hard data, which you have scarcely presented, your bluster will simply annoy the readership of CR. Mission accomplished, kid.

There, I think that's enough troll feeding for one night.
J. Bridges | Homepage | 05.15.08 - 12:46 am | #

Tim writes:
Zero Visitors online. I saw it.
Tim | 05.15.08 - 1:35 am | #

ShortCourage writes:
It'll be interesting to see how many takers there are for all the condos coming online soon in downtown San Jose.

I don't mean to compare Sillicon Valley with Las Vegas or Florida. But for an area with more people leaving than arriving (since 2000) we've had a fair number of condos and townhomes built.

And our foreclosure problems are just starting to gather speed too.
ShortCourage | 05.15.08 - 1:39 am | #

sdtfs writes:
El Cajon (outside of San Diego) tried to promote an ownership society, so they okayed a lot of conversions,...a lot. It made sense because there really was a problem with the multi-unit mix, but they overshot. The last few completions went back to rentals, but there are a few gutted building that I wonder if they'll be put back together.
I've got a friend who bought a conversion near 300K (the city kicked in the down payment in an equity sharing deal)but now the identical unit across the way sold for 125K.
sdtfs | 05.15.08 - 1:53 am | #

mock turtle writes:
Tim writes:
Zero Visitors online. I saw it.
Tim | 05.15.08 - 1:35 am |

how can that be...takes one visitor, at least, to see the "X visitors online" tally?
mock turtle | 05.15.08 - 2:00 am | #

pd130 writes:
Another Chicago bear here, mostly because of the really insane, when you think about it, extent of major overbuilding downtown, still going on last I was there (I'm between here and there mostly) and conversion mania described by Derek out in the hoods, both NS and SS.

I want to know where the money came from. There's precious little of what used to be called a "community lending" sector in Chicago*, which back with Tanta's and my dinosaurs used to provide much residential finance. I find it hard to believe that much of the conversion, especially, going on in the last few years has been funded by anyone local who understands the market. And of course time was when even the large commercial construction in town would have been mostly locallay funded, or at least had a local consortium lead.

=====
* Can anyone name a large bank in Chicago that's still held by a local holding company?
pd130 | 05.15.08 - 2:00 am | #

tj & the bear writes:
At one point there were something like 89000 (yes, eighty-nine thousand) condos planned for Las Vegas, most of them to be priced well beyond the reach of 99% of the people that live there.
tj & the bear | 05.15.08 - 2:01 am | #

RE writes:
No rate cuts for two years, King hints as inflation heads towards 4 per cent

The Bank of England indicated that there is not likely to be another cut in interest rates for two years, as it forecast that inflation will reach 4 per cent this autumn.


The Bank admitted for the first time yesterday that recession was a real risk for the economy and that inflation would stay above the Government's official 2 per cent target until 2011.

The Governor of the Bank, Mervyn King, said price rises would lead to "a squeeze on real take-home pay, which will slow consumer spending and output growth, perhaps sharply".
RE | 05.15.08 - 2:02 am | #

Anon writes:
RE: Chicago

I love this place for a home base, but you need to be able to escape in my opinion. Great restaurants, entertainment, museums, sports and Daley always makes sure we have nice flowers everywhere. I like that it's aninternational city, but not as crowded as NYC/LA.

There is a lot of Russian, Arab, and Asian money that is buying in Chicago. I expect the premium properties to do fine because of the foreign big money. There will be a lot of bk buildings otherwise.

As far as the shootings go...there are now 100 fewer people left to shoot at each other. Chicago is very segregated and these problems don't come downtown (so far).

RE: Belmar in Colorado

I have eaten at Ted's and caught a movie in the theater there. I didn't notice that there were condos...boy what a mistake that is though. Good buffalo burger at Ted's though!
Anon | 05.15.08 - 2:15 am | #

sdtfs writes:

pd130 writes:
I want to know where the money came from.

Wasn't Corus big into Miami and Chicago?
sdtfs | 05.15.08 - 2:16 am | #

Vertical Drop writes:
PD130:

* Can anyone name a large bank in Chicago that's still held by a local holding company?

The answer to your question is First Bank of Oak Park - also known as Park National Bank. Not that 15-20 billion in assets is considered big in today's world but there you have it.

- Vert
Vertical Drop | 05.15.08 - 2:24 am | #

RE writes:
Americans' money worries are growing, L.A. Times/Bloomberg poll finds

For the first time since 1993, the percentage of people who say their finances are very or fairly secure falls below 60%, the survey shows.
...
Nearly 2 out of 5 people say the state of their personal finances is fairly shaky or very shaky, the poll found. And for the first time since 1993, the percentage of people who said their finances were very or fairly secure fell below 60% -- to 57%, said Times Poll Director Susan Pinkus. "Anything below 60% is sort of like a warning sign of what's coming next," Pinkus said. "It paints the picture of a very grim, weakened economy that is affecting how people are going to spend."

More than three-quarters of those polled said they thought the economy had fallen into a recession and that the country was "seriously off on the wrong track."
RE | 05.15.08 - 2:30 am | #

pd130 writes:
Wasn't Corus big into Miami and Chicago?

I don't know, something for me to check out when I get a couple of other things off my plate. I think the question is big enough for a project of some kind, if someone's looking for one, maybe something on locational management risk or whatever.

I have seen them as funders of some conversions in Bronzeville (where a lot of the old housing stock near King Dr. especially could really make nice rehabs, btw), but I don't have even a real eyeball sample. Come to think of it, they might have been using a sub of some kind for that, but their name was on some of the promotions; I had the tip of a toe in the market as a potential unit owner about 3 years ago. Among other things, I thought the prices were too high then, and although I hadn't quite caught up with some of the subjects discussed regularly on this blog, I was really worried about what would happen to fragile, newly gentrifying communities under a genuine price crash. Every now and then I manage to see beyond my nose.

It would make sense for Corus to be active downtown with the new highrise constructions and bigger loft conversions, though, wouldn't it, since that type of building was also big in Miami.
pd130 | 05.15.08 - 2:38 am | #

Ken writes:
Throw Seattle in the list (though it hasn't sunk in for most of the locals yet). Less than a fifth of the population of Chicago and we've got about 1000 mostly high end units coming online per year in the downtown core.

http://stroupecondoblog.com/2008...owntown-condos/

Someone have a good macro-economic model (or a clever SWAG) for who loses when these places just won't sell?
Ken | Homepage | 05.15.08 - 3:33 am | #

sdtfs writes:
mock turtle writes:
Tim writes:
Zero Visitors online. I saw it.
Tim | 05.15.08 - 1:35 am |

how can that be...takes one visitor, at least, to see the "X visitors online" tally?
mock turtle | 05.15.08 - 2:00 am | #

I thought I saw that somewhere else,..
"Bother!" said Pooh. "Isn't there anybody here at all?"
"Nobody."
Winnie-the-Pooh took his head out of the hole, and
thought for a little, and he thought to himself, "There must be
somebody there, because somebody must have said 'Nobody.'" So
he put his head back in the hole, and said: "Hallo, Rabbit,
isn't that you?"
"No," said Rabbit, in a different sort of voice this
time.
"But isn't that Rabbit's voice?"
"I don't think so," said Rabbit."It isn't meant to be."
sdtfs | 05.15.08 - 3:54 am | #

sterlingerl writes:
Anybody know what happened at 3pm eastern yesterday?
sterlingerl | 05.15.08 - 6:32 am | #

central_scrutinizer writes:
ac, your article claiming that investors are thinking it's a good time to buy stocks gives me hope that it may be a good time to go short again soon.

This reeks of herding behaviour.

We've already had a nice rally, 100 bps + on the S&P since March.

And energy stocks ? Awfully late to be jumping on that bandwagon; the time for that play was last summer.
central_scrutinizer | 05.15.08 - 6:52 am | #

iceman writes:
BTW, Downey Savings is out with their 13 month data this morning. The exponential NPA trend that CR shows occasionally, has not been broken.
iceman | 05.15.08 - 7:10 am | #

Kou Jie writes:
One more on the topic:

"But don't bank on the globetrotters for a wholesale rescue from our condo glut. After all, this is Chicago, not South Beach or Park Avenue. If you were jetting in from Dubai, would you come here or go to Miami?"


www.chicagomag.com/Chicago-Magazine/May-2008/Who- Will-Buy-the-Condos/
Kou Jie | 05.15.08 - 7:39 am | #

WildBill writes:
Kou Jie writes:
One more on the topic:

"But don't bank on the globetrotters for a wholesale rescue from our condo glut. After all, this is Chicago, not South Beach or Park Avenue. If you were jetting in from Dubai, would you come here or go to Miami?"

*****

Oh, Mr. Kotter, Mr. Kotter! I know the answer!

LA.
WildBill | 05.15.08 - 8:26 am | #

Ellen writes:
Front page story on my local newspaper is that we're the 4th fastest growing housing market in the country.

Home prices are up 2.6%, which is pretty much what it was two or three years ago.

Then again, there never was a bubble here in Hinterlandia.

http://www.syracuse.com/articles...6520.xml& coll=1
Ellen | 05.15.08 - 8:28 am | #

Chicago Dude writes:
* Can anyone name a large bank in Chicago that's still held by a local holding company?

The Northern Trust Company, but that's a bank for rich people.


There is still a large demand for downtown living in Chicago, just not at the current prices. Apartment towers are going up fast and filling up fast. I know of at least one highrise due to be completed in 2008 that has already returned deposits and is switching to apartments. 6000 units coming online this year is huge and I hope it doesn't overwhelm the progress made in the past few years. There are tens of thousands of people now living downtown and you can walk around at night without worries - it's lively and safe.


Derek is crazy about the South Side. There are a few bad sections, but by and large it is a blue collar middle class city. The West Side is the dangerous section of town.
Chicago Dude | 05.15.08 - 8:36 am | #

SteveInChicago writes:
I live in the city of Chicago (Andersonville neighborhood), and I can offer a little bit of insight into this.

First, historically, most city dwellers don't live right downtown, and by downtown I mean the loop. It's hard to believe, but once people leave work, downtown becomes a ghost town.

A lot of people (myself included) do choose to live in the city, but most of us live in the neighborhoods, not right downtown. Your money goes farther, it's quieter, and there's more things to do.

I think that crime in Chicago varies a lot more depending on neighborhood than most other large cities. The safe neighborhoods are very safe (never had a problem personally, and most of the people I know haven't either.) The rough neighborhoods are very rough, but you're very insulated from them in the safer neighborhoods, with the exception of areas that are right near the housing projects.

There is a a large, contiguous block of safe neighborhoods on the North Side starting at the loop and going up 60 blocks or so. This would include the Gold Coast, River North, Lincoln Park, Wicker Park, Bucktown, Lakeview/Wrigleyville/Roscoe Village, Buena Park, Ravenswood, Lincoln Square, Edgewater, Andersonville, etc. There are pockets in there that have historically been rough areas but are rapidly improving (Uptown.) Areas close (but not too close) to El stations command a price premium.

This area has been heavily developed, probably overdeveloped, with condos.

The Near South Side is between the Loop and Chinatown. It includes areas very close to the loop (Printer's row) and a whole bunch of development near the Roosevelt El stop. It's the one with all of the cranes. This is a fairly safe area, but it's way, way overbuilt for residential housing, as is the loop.

One of the posts mentioned Bronzeville. It's an old, historic, cultural area with a lot of beautiful homes. It's also surrounded by a lot of really rough neighborhoods, and I can't see it being a hot real estate location any time soon.

Here's the problem: Whenever they report Chicago housing prices, they either report it as part of the metro area or as part of the Midwest. Prices in the burbs didn't go up by as much as in the city, and prices in the Midwest in general have absolutely nothing to do with prices in Chicago.

My neighborhood nearly doubled in price over the last 10 years, and I'm waiting for prices to drop before I buy.
SteveInChicago | 05.15.08 - 8:41 am | #

jim a writes:
"But don't bank on the globetrotters for a....
Great, now I've got the tune Sweet Georgia Brown stuck in my head.
jim a | 05.15.08 - 8:47 am | #

sterlingerl writes:
U.S. May Empire State index falls to -3.2 vs 0.6 April
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Manufacturing activity in the New York area deteriorated slightly in May, the New York Federal Reserve Bank said Thursday. The bank's Empire State Manufacturing index fell to negative 3.2 in May from 0.6 in April. This is the third month in the last four that the index has been negative. Readings below zero indicate contraction. The report was weaker than expected. Economists were expecting to be essentially flat in April.
sterlingerl | 05.15.08 - 8:50 am | #

Alec writes:
Unemployment initial claims up 6k(sa) & down 10k(nsa)

4 week moving avg down 1,000(0.4%); up 14% YoY
Alec | 05.15.08 - 8:58 am | #

Anonymouse writes:
sterlingerl writes:
Anybody know what happened at 3pm eastern yesterday?

Yeah, I sold.











(I'll keep posting it until people stop asking)
Anonymouse | 05.15.08 - 9:00 am | #

byzantine_ruins writes:
Human nature is whatever you want.

Fallacy. Human nature can be labelled, categorized, or subjected to whatever taxonomy of notation you want, but it's still the same animal you're describing. You can condition people and set rules that induce them to act certain ways but they are still people.

You should stop reading that Skinner crap and read Han Fei Tze.

But are humans inclined to act selfishly and greedily toward others rather than benevolently and altruistically?

From the point of view of an institutiuon, yes.
Human governing institutions moderate and resolve disputes between sub-institutional units, be they individuals, clans, lesser feudal overlords, whatever. It's one of the basic components of political goods. People who are good, reasonable altruists don't end up needing arbitration, they work out mutually beneficial solutions.

At a minimum, you *must* provide for the handling of people who are noncompliant. You can provide additional stuff on top of that, but the base functions of the state other than provision of infrastructure (disputes resolution, common defense, protection of property) are all predicated on dealing with noncompliant individuals for a reason -- they make you do it.

Thought experiment: You're looking out the window onto a street during a hot Summer day and notice a small child enjoying an ice cream cone. Suddenly a man approaches the child, grabs the ice cream cone, and pushes the child into the gutter. Do you say to yourself, "Now there's a typical act of human nature." Or do you recognize it as pathological?

Is this somehow an a-or-b question? I would say that the real question is, "do you mock and shame the man and buy the child a new ice cream cone?"

Why are questions of taxonomy more important to you than right behavior? You will get farther setting a good example and expecting people to follow you than arguing semantics like a sophist. This is a blog full of short-sale artists and real-estate investors. Fascinating facts, razor-sharp analysis, possibly even business opportunities are to be found here, but don't expect the inhabitants to be other than what they are.

The problem with our society and its political economy is that its institutions are designed to bring out the worst in human nature. So even if one were to believe that humans have a tendency toward pathological behavior, why have institutions that bring the worst of humans out, like greed and selfishness?

What more equitable system do you espouse? Let's see what strip of zealot or visionary you are. I think the problem with our society is that we are a bunch of overly-entitled whiners who, as a society, don't understand the basic function of the state or how a budget works.

These are important questions that, unfortunately and understandably, we seldom ask.

A lot of people ask them. Fewer come equipped with answers, and few answers are anything other thna wishful thinking or a shuffling-about of who collects the spoils from the misrule of society. This doesn't mean they don't get implemented, just that they cause nothing more than additional misery. The closer you get to making a complete positive offering the more likely you are to get somewhere.

Say what you want about their morality, the inhabitants of this blog are calling *vigorously* for reform. They largely want definable, positive reforms they can point to as a specific want and explain why they are needed. These are practical desires. Standing on a soap box telling the market square that judgement day is at hand is non-contributive. We know. We post dozens of plotted passive sonar contacts with the approaching
Leviathan every day. Just because you have discovered a bad thing does not mean you are first to the fight or foremost among the fighters.

http://www.universal-tao- eproduc...gTzu29UTEP.html
byzantine_ruins | Homepage | 05.15.08 - 9:01 am | #

Anonymouse writes:
byzantine_ruins,

Thanks for the lengthy reply. I'd respond in kind but this thread will soon be just another unvisited memory of Troll dumpings.
Anonymouse | 05.15.08 - 9:06 am | #

byzantine_ruins writes:
That's okay, if you want an extended conversation, I keep a blog you can go comment in.
byzantine_ruins | Homepage | 05.15.08 - 9:10 am | #

Alo writes:
Conspicuously absent from most nyc reports on housing are inventory figures - if the RE industry here would allow an analysis, I'd imagine we share quite a bit of Chicago's pain.

The Real Estate Board in nyc puts 1Q08 condo sales at around 3500 -- if you do a search on craigslist alone (which a lot of high-end real estate agencies do not list on), even allowing for double posts, the number of condos for sale is at least double that on any given day.

The RE spinners like to talk up median price here (and it's true -the ultra rich are still buying and skewing the numbers-though the effect of wall st. layoffs probably won't show till the next quarter or 2) - but they are always coy about inventory. always.

The bubble here coincided with an end to tax breaks last year for condo buildings - so there was an enormous upsurge in permits and construction to get these places done before the tax benefits ended. In every boro, high- and low-rise condos fill lot after lot - and there simply are not enough weathy people to fill them. Some are being turned to rentals. And some entire buildings have been forclosed or are being offered for sale before construction ends.

Despite the RE industry's secrecy, you can add two and two by looking at all the empty and half-finished condos -- and at the scrapping of large-scale residential projects like Atlantic Yards in Brooklyn.

And the largest shoe to drop may be the problems that will arise in these newly constructed condos -- most have been put up as cheaply and rapidly as possible, and are going to have structural and other problems down the line. So condo owners may get a double whammy hurting home values - sagging market, and shoddy construction. Make that triple, if maintenance fees -- water bills and taxes etc. continue their climb.
Alo | 05.15.08 - 9:13 am | #

charlie writes:
Downey NPA's at 13.24% as of April 30. Didn't think it could go much higher. It did.

They borrowed $200mm+ from FHLB. It seems like any bank in trouble can borrow from FHLB as much as they want. Countrywide sucked over $40 billion from them just before the BAC deal.
charlie | 05.15.08 - 9:19 am | #

Anonymouse writes:
May 15 09:15 Industrial Production Apr -0.7%

May 15 09:15 Capacity Utilization Apr 79.7%
Anonymouse | 05.15.08 - 9:22 am | #

Jas Jain writes:
--
We need to understand the lags in the economy. Overbuilding timeline:

SFH --> Condos --> CRE.

Jas
Jas Jain | 05.15.08 - 9:23 am | #

isamu writes:
And I wish more cities in the US had sites like http://chicago.everyblock.com/crime/

Other than breeding needless paranoia like those stupid "sex offenders in your area" lists, it won't tell you anything that you couldn't figure out by observing the dominant skin colour in the neighbourhood.

Yours in Christ,
Isamu
isamu | 05.15.08 - 9:28 am | #

Alec writes:
For those who want to believe that they're gonna cut rates in the eurozone:
Robust German, French GDP growth boosts euro

Eurostat, the European Union's statistical agency, reported that gross domestic product across the 15-nation euro zone expanded at a 0.7% quarterly pace in the first three months of the year, putting annualized growth at 2.2%. A survey of economists by Dow Jones Newswires yielded consensus GDP growth forecasts of 0.5% and 1.9%, respectively.
The jump came as little surprise, however, since data earlier in the day from Germany and France, the euro-zone's two biggest economies, had already shown better-than-expected rates of growth.
Chart of C_EUR
Germany's federal statistics agency said GDP grew at its strongest rate in 12 years, posting 1.5% growth in the first three months of the year, for an annual pace of 2.6%. The consensus expectations among economists surveyed had been for a 0.7% quarterly increase and 1.8% yearly growth.
Insee, the French statistical agency, said GDP grew at a 0.6% quarterly rate and at 2.2% on the year, exceeding respective consensus forecasts of 0.4% and 1.9%

Eurostat also confirmed a previous estimate showing consumer price inflation across the euro zone eased to an annual pace of 3.3% in April, lower after hitting a record 3.6% in March. While showing some easing in inflationary pressures, the figure is still well above the European Central Bank's medium-term inflation target pegged at just below 2%.
Alec | 05.15.08 - 9:28 am | #

Jas Jain writes:
--
dumb canuck,

My experience is that "dumb canucks" are smarter than smart Americans (I mean those who think that they are oh so smart). Try making an American admit his mistake!

Americans suffer from too much hubris. They are bred to be dopes, in order to defend and support a criminalized system, and it is tough getting out of that. Lifetime of brainwashing takes its toll.

Anyone who doesn't think that Fed and USG's interventions in the economy are criminal (support the bad guys) doesn't have a sense of Right and Wrong.

A dumb American,

Jas
Jas Jain | 05.15.08 - 9:33 am | #

Jas Jain writes:
--
Alec,

During 2003-07 Germans were building businesses (an export and production machine) while Americans, Brits, Irish and Spaniards were building homes and Pushing Debt. They were copying American crooks and dopes. UK economy's collapse would be worse than US's.

Jas
Jas Jain | 05.15.08 - 9:39 am | #

bluestatedon writes:
"It's hard to believe, but once people leave work, downtown becomes a ghost town."

Not being a Chicago resident I can't speak from broad experience, but my wife and I stayed in downtown Chicago over the May 2-4 weekend, and Michigan Ave. above and below Ontario and surrounding side streets were packed well into the evening on Friday and Sat. nights. Had a wonderful weekend there as always.
bluestatedon | 05.15.08 - 9:44 am | #

stryx writes:
Brilliant analysis isamu.

Racism like yours is a constant drag on our economy. Thanks.

Punch yourself in the nose for me, would you?

.
stryx | 05.15.08 - 10:20 am | #

byzantine_ruins writes:
Punch yourself in the nose for me, would you?

And, it stays true to "WWJD," so it's compatible with his Christian faith!
byzantine_ruins | Homepage | 05.15.08 - 10:33 am | #

isamu writes:
Brilliant analysis isamu.

Racism like yours is a constant drag on our economy. Thanks.

Punch yourself in the nose for me, would you?

your ideology is dead, lib.

yours in Christ,
isamu
isamu | 05.15.08 - 10:38 am | #

trader walt writes:
This is some of the stuff the we inter city Chicago residents do in the evenings during the week and on weekends. (After the suburbanites go home..)
http://www.grantparkmusicfestiva...com/ index.shtml

Did I mention that it's free?
trader walt | 05.15.08 - 10:41 am | #

Ethan writes:
Trader Walt

And Tuesday nights it's free jazz on the Terrace of the MCA.

And did I mention Oak Street beach? Also free and about a 6-7 minute walk from my building. Yeah, I'm old and married, but I'm not BLIND.
Ethan | 05.15.08 - 10:56 am | #

Ror Dog writes:
Don't forget Austin, TX....we are building condos everywhere. Million dollar condos in south-south-congress, across the street from taco-stands and strip joints.

Not good!
Ror Dog | 05.15.08 - 11:04 am | #

Josh writes:
trader walt, you have a point, and part of what I was saying last night is that the downtown and near-south area of Chicago is as good as it gets for Chicago.

My overall convern is about Chicago itself though. Seen a roster of large Chicago companies lately? Compare it to a list from 10 or 20 years ago. Its death by taxation at every level there.

I'm hanging onto my place because its a.) where I will retire in a few years and b.) very useful to younger friends and family who could use a break to save up a downpayment.

I'll add a few things about the near-south that you haven't noted. A. The Pacific Gardens mission (homeless shelter), the largest source of loop sexual predators over the last 60 years, is being moved south, and west of the river. Public housing has come down all over the areas to the south, and it looks like even the Ickes and Wells low rises and mid rises may be coming down in the next few years.

I know for a fact that families with children are starting to stay in the neighborhood when the kids are old enough for school. That is a very recent phenomenom.

But the bigger concern is still valid though. What assets are left for Daley to sell? Is there any ability left for Chicago and Illinois generally to sell more debt?

From where I stand, they've been crying poor mouth for years now, and finally reached the back of the vault.
Josh | 05.15.08 - 11:13 am | #

trader walt writes:
Ethan, here in the South Loop, I live about 10 minute walk from the 11th Street beach. The Oak Street beach is a 10 minute bike ride along the lake from my place.
I did , however, find a picture of the Oak Street beach:

http://www.google.com/imgres?img...1&ct=image& cd=1
trader walt | 05.15.08 - 11:15 am | #

Gary writes:
I wonder what isamu's reaction will be when he dies and goes to hell.
Gary | 05.15.08 - 11:27 am | #

TMoney writes:
Perhaps the excess condos are going to be like the railways build out - lots of capital lost by initial investors but the assets remain and are sold off cheap to other (smarter) investors who will be able to reap hansome rewards from city housing as gas prices squeeze people in from the distant burbs.
TMoney | 05.15.08 - 11:34 am | #

dryfly writes:
Something Tanta once said about trolls do much better on a forced diet comes to mind...

dryfly | 05.15.08 - 11:41 am | #

TCA writes:
Money is the root of all evil, So this Blog is evil.


Nope. The verse actually says the love of money is the root of all kinds of evil. Money is a tool that can be used for good or evil just like anything else.
TCA | 05.15.08 - 11:46 am | #

trader walt writes:
Dry,

Your comment about the California lottery yesterday was really funny.
trader walt | 05.15.08 - 11:57 am | #

stryx writes:
I think that's a good point TMoney.

I'd guess that a great number of CBD housing conversion wouldn't have been done without speculative enabling.

But now they're 'facts on the ground.'
stryx | 05.15.08 - 12:02 pm | #

isamu writes:
I wonder what isamu's reaction will be when he dies and goes to hell.

The Bible say that I shall bear no false witness.

Sorry, I can't repeat the lies of libs. (e.g. race has no correlation with crime rates)

yours in Christ,
Isamu
isamu | 05.15.08 - 12:13 pm | #

Alo writes:
Feed my people, starve my trolls-
blogviticus-2:37

(seriously, bloggers of good fortune and all religous persuasions-or not-, there are a lot of food pantries and meals-on-wheels coming up short on cash and donations these days - thanks to our foul-tuned economy - i just ponied up for my local nyc pantry- hope youse think about doing the same)
Alo | 05.15.08 - 3:10 pm | #

Curmudgeon writes:
A few observations on Chicago real estate market:

--I have been surprised that inventory hasn't really exploded yet in Chicago. I base this on the housingtracker.net data, which is compiled from MLS listings. It says SFH inventory in Chicago-Naperville-Joliet MSA is currently 66,800, down 1.6% yoy. (Says we have a 7.8% decline in median asking price, if you're curious). http://www.housingtracker.net/as...perville- Joliet

--Price dynamics over the last 10 years of course varies by location, but my sense in Chicago proper is that house price had *very dramatic* upward moves from 2000 to 2006. I would guess a near doubling in good neighborhoods (and bad ones too, probably), based on my anecdotal experience of looking at recent transaction prices versus historical paid prices.

--I am amazed at how well certain neighborhoods are still getting ridiculous transaction prices. I look at Hyde Park (home to the U of C), and I see houses sit for 6 or 9 months but still close at prices well above what people paid 2004-2005. Houses people bought for $800k-$1 mln a few years ago now sport $1.6-$1.8 mln prices. Bizarre.

--By the way Derek these houses are on the "crime-infested" South Side.

--Just from conversations with people, I sense that we aren't even getting close to the worry stage, much less capitulation stage, in the house market. Which is a bummer because I've been patiently waiting for weakness to buy a house ...
Curmudgeon | 05.15.08 - 4:38 pm | #

joe from chi writes:
By the way, there aren't that many projects left, so you seem to be pining for the '90s when Taylor, Stateway,etc. still dominated S. State.
------------

King Daley's master plan to get rid of high rise 'jets and make condos has back fired. The pro-jet dewellers have been push out into the Border Suburbs and now the working class hoods of Chicago. They bring with them their penchent for crime. The only saving grace for the working schleps in the NW and SW side is that all those fancy condos that cannot sell will become the new projects when the they Section 8 them out. Bank on it!

Obama 4 evah! Speard the Chicago disease to the rest of the country!
joe from chi | 05.15.08 - 5:21 pm | #

joe from chi writes:
Derek is crazy about the South Side. There are a few bad sections, but by and large it is a blue collar middle class city. The West Side is the dangerous section of town.
Chicago Dude | 05.15.08 - 8:36 am | #
--

Ok, "Dude" here is a list of rat hole SS hoods: Englewood, West Pullman, Roseland, Brighton Pk, Gage Pk, Marquette Pk, Back of the Yards, Kenmore, Park Manor, Grand Crossing.

Any blue collar M-C's there are the exception, not the rule. And God Bless them!
joe from chi | 05.15.08 - 5:54 pm | #

Russ writes:
Not being a Chicago resident I can't speak from broad experience, but my wife and I stayed in downtown Chicago over the May 2-4 weekend, and Michigan Ave. above and below Ontario and surrounding side streets were packed well into the evening on Friday and Sat. nights.

Older Chicagoans consider that the near north side, not "downtown". Anyone older than 50 considers downdowtn to be Lake street on the North to 12th street on the South (the Loop). And of course the relitter designations oftern differ from the city hall definitions. Residential buildings are usually north of Lake and south of 8th so the areas in between often are sparse at night, though not as sparse as say 20 years ago.

For anyone who cares, the part of Englewood that is really bad is south of 59th street, a few miles from the South Loop. Bronzeville used to be really bad, before the projects were torn down. It's improved since then, especially north of 31st street. Here's a URL for a map for those inclined:

http://www.wildonions.org/ Neighb...borhoodsMap.htm
Russ | 05.15.08 - 6:03 pm | #

Shnapster writes:
This pretty much sums up everything you need to know about guys from the South Side.
Shnapster | Homepage | 05.15.08 - 7:19 pm | #

Josh writes:
Russ, one little quibble for those Chicagoans still on this thread. 60th or 61st is the southern border for Hyde Park (i.e., well east of the Dan Ryan). 60th street is even the southern border for the 21st police district which includes Hyde Park.

Englewood is bad througout. West of the Ryan, the bad hoods start at about 51st street (in the 9th police district) in Back of the Yards, and continue straight south for miles. The 7th police district (Englewood) runs from 55th to 75th, the Ryan to the viaducts east of Western, and the whole neighborhood is a disaster.

I'm from a law enforcement family. Though I'm not "set" in Chicago the past few years, I have deep experience with crime in the city, both personally and through experiences of family and friends.

Joe from Chi, you are generally correct. Crime patterns are showing the murder center moving due south along with the project folks. Area 2 on the far South side has been getting worse and worse for years now, and I'm pretty sure the numbers are significantly beyond those of Area 4 on the West side. That said, the most violent police district in the city for basically 30 years was the 11th police district in Area 4. The 7th police district in area 1 on the south side was the second most violent. This might not be the case this year, with the trends moving south.
Josh | 05.16.08 - 12:25 am | #

Derek writes:
J. Bridges,

truth hurts ha? Isamu is showing you proof that the south side is a terrible, terrible place. People calling him racist for showing you proof and stating facts is not fair.

Your a sucker and overpaid for a overproced condo in one of the worst areas in Chicago and the country.

You made your bed now you have to sleep in it.

You can not sell it because people are not suckers like you and know well that particular area sucks. So you spend your time trying to pump up the its image.

It is not skin color in these areas that cause the crime and despare it is hopelessness. Calling me or Ismu a Racist doen't make any logical sense for merely pointing out crime statistics. It is your own anger that you lost on a condo deal that is driving your negative comments toward Ismu and myself.

Chi guy,
there are a few good neighboorhood's surrounded by bad on South Side. Namely the South West Side (mostly considered the Irish ones.) They are extremely nice. But a block away is the hold up man in many cases.

West side is just as bad in in many cases I agree.
Derek | 05.16.08 - 1:13 pm | #