Weather Helm writes:
frist?
Weather Helm | 03.10.08 - 10:29 am | #

ScoProLaw writes:
This does not sit well with me.
Oil is going to be outrageous.
ScoProLaw | 03.10.08 - 10:30 am | #

Meltdown Man writes:
Argentine central bank President Martin Redrado said emerging markets are weathering the global financial-market turmoil ``very well.''

``I haven't said that we've decoupled,'' Redrado told reporters at a meeting of central bankers in Basel, Switzerland, today. ``Emerging economies are not an island in the world. Financial conditions have tightened.''

Redrado....then again you haven't not said that you've decoupled....Peter Schiff is right again.
Meltdown Man | 03.10.08 - 10:31 am | #

tranches of like writes:
Cue the Ride of the Valkyries ... I see hueys on the horizon dropping wads of cash...
tranches of like | 03.10.08 - 10:32 am | #

JJL writes:
"cut rates before its scheduled meeting to shore up the U.S. economy"

All the cuts so far have certainly stopped the bleeding in the markets! I am so glad another cut will "shore" things up because I was getting a bit worried.

From fictitious Yahoo Finance:
When asked if an intermeeting cut will help the economy, FED head Ben Bernanke commented "For Shore!"
JJL | Homepage | 03.10.08 - 10:32 am | #

Neal writes:
Hope is not a plan.

A statement just as true-panic is not a plan, either.

Pretty soon there will no more rounds for the six-shooter.

Then what happens?
Neal | 03.10.08 - 10:34 am | #

Nurit writes:
The dollar is going down the drain--where should we put our money?
Nurit | 03.10.08 - 10:35 am | #

In the trenches writes:
Why would they cut?
Havent they seen the Wright Model B?
They're much too late and their cuts wont matter. Interest rates didnt get us into this mess so they wont get us out. The problem was with risk premiums or lack thereof.
Inflation is also very real.
Ugly situation.
In the trenches | 03.10.08 - 10:36 am | #

Neal writes:
As I said before, the world has placed the US finacials in the plague ward.

Time to take the losses.

Otherwise, the distrust of the rest of the world will destroy that which is not already damaged.
Neal | 03.10.08 - 10:37 am | #

NSA writes:
FBI investigating Countrywide for 'possible fraud'.

http://money.cnn.com/2008/03/08/ ...sion=2008030810

LOL.
NSA | 03.10.08 - 10:38 am | #

Anonymous writes:
Cut all they want it will not fix insolvent banks and makes little difference if rates of everyone else are rising.
Anonymous | 03.10.08 - 10:38 am | #

Meltdown Man writes:
Dollar will tank further on an emergency cut...PM's will go through the roof...the final attempt at re-inflating before the market implosion.
Meltdown Man | 03.10.08 - 10:39 am | #

tulsatime writes:
I guess if they do an emergency cut today they can spread out the 1.25% that everyone is gaming. The cuts are having an effect of exactly nada, but tell that to the decider monkey. The erratic fed behaviour has all the marks of being directed from the WH, so W will firmly establish his legacy with this sealing of the Great Meltdown.
tulsatime | 03.10.08 - 10:42 am | #

ScoProLaw writes:
cans I have more free money, plz?
ScoProLaw | 03.10.08 - 10:44 am | #

Turbo writes:
You might want to print the full story here - Goldman's base case is for the Fed NOT to cut before their next meeting, but they acknowledge it could happen. I seriously doubt eurodollar and fed funds futures would be down on the day if Goldman was out calling for a cut today.
Turbo | 03.10.08 - 10:44 am | #

JJL writes:
Bernanke just cut the cheese.
JJL | Homepage | 03.10.08 - 10:44 am | #

Cooking ramen in my percolator writes:
Pretty soon there will no more rounds for the six-shooter.

I think the situation is more similar to the abuse of anti-biotics. Similar to MRSA and VRE, market illness have developed tolerance, and are actually starting to feast on the Fed's drug...
Cooking ramen in my percolator | Homepage | 03.10.08 - 10:46 am | #

Human writes:
GS is competing with CNBC's Gasparino for Bagdad Bob's job. They pump this in the AM and Charlie will talk about a new bailout plan for Ambac this PM.
Human | 03.10.08 - 10:48 am | #

Bob_in_MA writes:
I'm guessing if there now isn't a rate cut today, the equity markets could turn for the worse pretty quickly.

I wonder what they base this prediction on?
Bob_in_MA | 03.10.08 - 10:50 am | #

Stuart writes:
Fed is pushing on a string.
Stuart | 03.10.08 - 10:50 am | #

Tom writes:
Cue the Ride of the Valkyries ... I see hueys on the horizon dropping wads of cash...
"

So much orange juice on the screen....
Tom | 03.10.08 - 10:50 am | #

Turbo writes:
Uh, Goldman's official forecast is for the Fed to cut 50 at the next meeting, rather less than the 73 bps currently priced in.
Turbo | 03.10.08 - 10:51 am | #

TheFinancialNinja writes:
Real negative rates and they're talking about an inter meeting cut. Thats not even funny...

Negative Yields, Emergency Rate Cuts
TheFinancialNinja | Homepage | 03.10.08 - 10:52 am | #

JJL writes:
Today is March 10th! Anyone remember back to 2000 and March 10th?

"The "dot-com bubble" (or sometimes the "I.T. bubble") was a speculative bubble covering roughly 1995–2001 with a climax on March 10th, 2000 with the NASDAQ peaking at 5132.52"

Scary indeed!
JJL | Homepage | 03.10.08 - 10:52 am | #

sportsfan writes:
Today is March 10th! Anyone remember back to 2000 and March 10th?

I certainly remember that day. That was back when I was rich. :o)

Meanwhile, what is this nonsense about the continuing need for rumors to prop the market?

Results work much better than rumors.
sportsfan | 03.10.08 - 10:56 am | #

Marcus Aurelius writes:
I read an interesting, and at first, seemingly insane rant on a gold-bug blog (lots of seemingly insane stuff there) the other day.

The gist of the rant was that the liquidity that the Fed was pumping into the system to fix what amounts to a solvency problem would be better spent if it were distributed equally among the citizenry. The guy was calling for an immediate grant of $300K+ to every taxpayer, instead of the banks.

His point is that the resulting inflation caused by the Fed/Treasury pumping is going to happen regardless of where the money goes, so it might as well be be put where it will be most freely traded.

The more I think about it, the more sense it makes. Especially when you consider how much sense the Fed's actions, to date, have made.
Marcus Aurelius | 03.10.08 - 11:00 am | #

Barley writes:
The Bank of England may be forced to follow the Federal Reserve in stepping up efforts to ease strains in the money markets

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/ne...E77c& refer=home
Barley | 03.10.08 - 11:08 am | #

Vito writes:
Stuart says:
Fed is pushing on a string.


Isn't more like shoving?
Vito | 03.10.08 - 11:12 am | #

Anonymous writes:
You've got me turning up and turning down
And turning in and turning 'round

I'm turning Japanese
I think I'm turning Japanese
I really think so
Turning Japanese
I think I'm turning Japanese
I really think so
Anonymous | 03.10.08 - 11:13 am | #

cars writes:
Goldman must be including rumors in their report, otherwise, how the hell they know that the Fed will "shore" up today? Market manipulation is so rampant, lets have some rule of law here.
cars | 03.10.08 - 11:13 am | #

six feet funder writes:
Don't fight the fed. Sell dollars.
six feet funder | 03.10.08 - 11:14 am | #

energyecon writes:
Crude spiked up to 106.76 near WTI contract...fast like, from around 104.50 in a basically vertical move...OT but makes me go 'hmmmmm'
energyecon | 03.10.08 - 11:14 am | #

energyecon writes:
guess it pinged 107 - this is getting fuglier
energyecon | 03.10.08 - 11:17 am | #

Missed Information writes:
oil is pure speculation at this point. There is no consumer demand for such pricey oil out there. But since only so much oil can be stored, price gotta crash soon.
Missed Information | Homepage | 03.10.08 - 11:22 am | #

Alec writes:
Has the Bush admin been buying into this rally for the straegic reserve?

If they are, shouldn't they have stopped, say, $20 ago?
Alec | 03.10.08 - 11:31 am | #

Zero writes:
It's interesting to watch the market transition from buying on dips to shorting on blips. On the next fed cut note the smaller rally and the larger post-rally collapse. It's been moving in this direction. When rate cuts purely drop the market perhaps they'll stop?
Zero | 03.10.08 - 11:39 am | #

Louis Cheung writes:
It looks dangerous to me. Yes, the Fed is trying to limit the downside risk of economic slowdown, and creating a great upside risk of accelerating inflation. Making the matter worse is the weakening dollar and rising oil prices.
Louis Cheung | Homepage | 03.10.08 - 11:56 am | #

Kicker writes:
oil is pure speculation at this point. There is no consumer demand for such pricey oil out there. But since only so much oil can be stored, price gotta crash soon.

Wait till they start pulling tankers heading for the scrap heap back into service as temporary storage bins.

Countries with strategic stockpiles of oil could squash a lot of the volatility in the oil market if they'd allow 10% of their reserves to be "leased".

A speculator could bid the for the right to sell the oil from the strategic reserves on the spot market in return for delivery of the oil back to the strategic reserve at some point in the future.

The "risk free" return would be the difference between what the future contract could be bought for and today's price.

The money received from the leased oil would even help pay for the storage costs of the other 90%. A 10% swing in the reserves isn't going to make a huge difference as far as a strategic stockpile goes.

But taking the volatility out of the market removes the ability for hedge funds and others to extract "rent" from the rest of us.
Kicker | 03.10.08 - 12:16 pm | #

Chris writes:
$1.53 to the Euro. Soon to be $1.55. Then $1.58 and so on and so forth. Surely one can bet somewhere on when it will reach 2 to the Euro.
Chris | 03.10.08 - 12:22 pm | #

Chris writes:
Inflation is also very real

3.9% if you use the "chained" tables; 4.3% if you use the "unchained" tables; and 4.4% if you use the seasonally adjusted tables. New numbers coming out soon for February. Hold on to your hats.
Chris | 03.10.08 - 12:29 pm | #

Anonymous writes:


Is it just my imagination, or has there been a bit of bad financial news lately?

Anonymous | 03.10.08 - 12:47 pm | #

Alec writes:
For the 2 USD= 1 euro to happen, the ECB would have to raise rates to counter inflation as the US cuts. $1.70 by June? Better than 50%.

Chance of Euro/Pound parity by Fall.
Alec | 03.10.08 - 12:54 pm | #

Chris writes:
Well the Euro was considerably below the dollar in 1999. Now it is at $1.53. Oddly enough this coincides with the Bush II presidency. Could there be any relationship?
Chris | 03.10.08 - 1:00 pm | #

Genevieve writes:
Rumors of a cut hanging in the air has become their weapon of choice (as in there is not much else... aside from the mono bailout rumors-trade halt) it seems to me, to keep the markets from selling off ie by trying to spark some short covering.
This game is quickly becoming LAME and ineffective. Short positions are being carefully managed taking advantage of those manipulations, thank you.
Anyway a cut this week, so close from the scheduled meeting will surely be seen as nothing else than a "market tool" IMO. Hence will be used as such by traders.
Genevieve | 03.10.08 - 1:11 pm | #

Kicker writes:
For the 2 USD= 1 euro to happen, the ECB would have to raise rates to counter inflation as the US cuts. $1.70 by June? Better than 50%.

Before you get too excited about the Euro you should look at what's backing it. The ECB has been buying Spanish MBS hand-over-fist.

There has been a lot of squawk from the pols about the high Euro hurting competitiveness and today the ECB stated they were "worried" about "volatility" in the FX market. That's code words that they believe the Euro is too high.

Spreads are also breaking out on various Euro-area sovereign debt. Interest rate spreads only go so far and then you start to ask "who owes me what?"

And Europe still has a demographic problem that is much worse than what the US is going to face. Long term growth prospects haven't changed.

I don't know how far the Euro has to run but I wouldn't consider it a safe-haven at this point.

http://www.euromoney.com/Article...both- hands.html
Kicker | 03.10.08 - 1:12 pm | #

Scooby writes:
"There is no consumer demand for such pricey oil out there. But since only so much oil can be stored, price gotta crash soon."

I don't recall hearing any news that crude inventories were especially high recently.

Additionally, Fed policy actions seem to be diametrically opposed to any drop in oil prices, at least in dollars.

I would strongly caution anyone putting any kind of meaningful bet on a crude price crash (not suggesting that you personally have, mind you) to acquaint themselves with who it is they are taking on. I believe one of the cardinal rules of investing makes bit of a suggestion about whether taking said parties on is a good idea.
Scooby | 03.10.08 - 1:15 pm | #

gn writes:
The news is always worst at the bottom. Be careful not to overstay those short bets.
gn | 03.10.08 - 1:26 pm | #

Alec writes:
Perhaps "volatility" means the US ought to get their act together. As for safe havens you maybe got gold & the chilean peso. I'm gonna ride the Euro to 1.55 then sell into strength. As europaper has matured I've moved into 5 year spanish paper as spreads have risen.
Alec | 03.10.08 - 1:29 pm | #

Anonymous writes:
If the Fed eventually cuts the rates to zero and THEN there are rumors of a rate cut should I believe them?
Anonymous | 03.10.08 - 1:43 pm | #

Anonymous writes:
Hussman has an interesting post today on the bear market, recessions, mortages and commodities.

http://hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc0...c/ wmc080310.htm

"A common argument lately is that the market's recent decline was simply anticipating the negative news we see today, and since “the market is a discounting mechanism,” we can go ahead and ignore the bad news and start looking ahead to the recovery. Not so fast. The market may be a discounting mechanism, but it usually doesn't look past economic trouble immediately after the trouble starts."
Anonymous | 03.10.08 - 1:49 pm | #

Anonymous writes:
Liquidity is great....until it drowns you
Anonymous | 03.10.08 - 1:50 pm | #

Bill writes:
Questions:
Is a lower Fed Funds rate inflationary when the velocity of money seems to be screeching to a halt (thus the wider spreads on all sorts of loans)? My recollection of the textbooks is that they referred to "interest rates" and never made a distinction about which one(s) of many they were referring to.

Wouldn't some inflation eventually (couple years?) help relieve this problem since the solvency issue would be greatly reduced if our entire price level, including house prices, made a one-off jump of 25%? (Leaving aside the issue of how we convince ourselves that it was just a one-off jump)
Bill | 03.10.08 - 4:01 pm | #

Deflation_Is_A_Coming_ writes:
Reinflation does NOT work in a era characterized by Global Labor Arbitrage.

If U.S wages fail to rise, then the rise in commodity prices is a direct tax on the consumer that leads to lower real disposable income.

If you say that China and India wages will eventually rise with growth and things will even out, I will tell you there is so much excess labor in China and India that a large increase in labor costs seems improbable.

Basically, the U.S loses as one of the most expensive places to do business. Not only are wages high relatively speaking to the rest of the world, but employers must also pay for healthcare costs, which adds to the uncompetitiveness of America.

So go ahead and inflate away, all you are doing is eroding the middle class.

THink about it people. Wages are stalling out and the price of food, energy, healthcare, education, etc. etc are going through the roof. Connect the dots.
Deflation_Is_A_Coming_ | 03.10.08 - 4:12 pm | #

Deflation_Is_A_Coming_ writes:
Sorry.. it should read "reflation" does NOT work in a era characterized by global labor arbitrage.
Deflation_Is_A_Coming_ | 03.10.08 - 4:13 pm | #

Deflation_Is_A_Coming_ writes:
The only folks that love this FED reflation attempt are the commodity producers of the world. Bernanke is helping to underpin Saudi Arabian and Russian wealth to the detriment of the oil importing countries..ie the U.S consumer.
Deflation_Is_A_Coming_ | 03.10.08 - 4:15 pm | #

Sebastian writes:
Bill said: "...Is a lower Fed Funds rate inflationary when the velocity of money seems to be screeching to a halt (thus the wider spreads on all sorts of loans)?..."

There's a worthy question. My answer would be "no," especially since Treasury rates in a variety of maturities aren't rising. JMO, but I think rates are leading the way for lower inflation.


S.
Sebastian | 03.10.08 - 6:28 pm | #

Alec writes:
Seb,

jeebus you're thicker than year old plasticine.

The fed is inflating to replace the shadow financing market(hence the nominal sterilizations) but at the end of the day it just confirms asset deflation & goods inflation.

They have the same chance of threading this needle that Warren Buffet's camel does.
Alec | 03.10.08 - 7:45 pm | #

jtaylor118 writes:
Here's where I think we are: the market will drop on a cut, and will rally when it's a raise.
jtaylor118 | Homepage | 03.10.08 - 11:28 pm | #