Tanta writes:
Paulson on CNBC now along wit some women from HopeNow alliance. According to Telegraph in the UK the PPT has met this week in the Whitehouse. Looks like this may soon lead to a great opportunity to add to short positions.
GillianX | 01.08.08 - 8:59 am | #

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sorry about my comment above being OT.
GillianX | 01.08.08 - 9:02 am | #

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More OT:

Credit-Default Swaps May Lose $250 Billion, Pimco's Gross Says
By Emma Moody

Jan. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Credit-default swaps, used to help protect against the risk a company won't pay its debt, may be the ``most egregious'' instruments created by the banking system and could cause losses of $250 billion, Pacific Investment Management Co.'s Bill Gross said.

Assuming default rates on corporate bonds reach historical averages of about 1.25 percent, $500 billion of credit-default swap contracts will be triggered, causing losses of $250 billion to the party that wrote the contract, Gross wrote on the company's Web site today.

[snip]
energyecon | 01.08.08 - 9:07 am | #
Tanta | Homepage | 01.08.08 - 9:11 am | #

12th Percentile writes:
Still have not picked a finalist for 2008 for the word of the year, but as phrases go, I like "most egregious"
12th Percentile | 01.08.08 - 9:18 am | #

Yal writes:
I have added BYD to my short list.

what do people here think about PENN - trading far below buyout price: Good short or good arbitrage ?
Yal | 01.08.08 - 9:21 am | #

Yal writes:
KBH erased some hugh number from book value. Too many zeros for me to repeat ( i am dyslektic)
Yal | 01.08.08 - 9:22 am | #

12th Percentile writes:
Here are the zeros


In the quarter ended Nov. 30, KB posted a loss of $772.7 million, or $9.99 per share, compared with a loss of $49.6 million, or 64 cents per share, in the year-ago period.

KB took a pretax charge of $403.4 million to write down the value of unsold inventory and book losses from joint ventures. The company also booked a $514.2 million tax valuation allowance that it can use to offset future profits. Excluding the tax allowance, its loss was $399 million compared with $171.1 million last year.

The average estimate of analysts polled by Thomson Financial was for a loss of $1.08 per share. KB did not provide a comparable per-share figure that excluded the tax allowance.

Revenue slumped 31 percent to $2.07 billion from $3.01 billion last year, but exceeded Wall Street estimates for $1.77 billion. Housing revenue fell 31 percent, with new home deliveries down 22 percent to 8,132. The average selling price dropped 12 percent, to $247,800.

"The challenging market conditions we experienced through the first three quarters of 2007 continued during the fourth quarter," said CEO Mezger. "We believe 2008 will be another tough year for the homebuilding industry."

12th Percentile | 01.08.08 - 9:27 am | #

Yal writes:
Book value was written down ~$1,000,000,000 . 00

Yes I counted those zeros correctly...
Yal | 01.08.08 - 9:27 am | #

ajmstilt writes:
oh noez, an open thread on calculated risk...

*runs for the hills*

i didn't catch the fox news pres debate, but i did watch the ccn one, and was very surprised no one proposed a homeowner bailout.
ajmstilt | 01.08.08 - 9:39 am | #

idoc writes:
all u gold doubters need to rethink your calculus. this is a crisis is confidence of fiat currency.
idoc | 01.08.08 - 9:41 am | #

Mike writes:
open thread fits the "Stretch marks as seen on Oprah" lines...)
Mike | 01.08.08 - 9:43 am | #

Aheadofthecurve writes:
It's a beautiful day here in the NorthEast. My portfolio is very green today, as is the grass poking out from under the snow. My dog and I are headed out to enjoy. If KB never throws up another McMansion that will be a net benefit to humankind.

Try and enjoy life, now, OK?
Aheadofthecurve | 01.08.08 - 9:45 am | #

cahuenga writes:
While I don't have any studies to back me up, I would be willing to bet that frequent skating leads to a good figure.
cahuenga | 01.08.08 - 9:52 am | #

Billy Hill writes:
Whatever happened to Nancy Kerrigan?
Billy Hill | 01.08.08 - 9:57 am | #

ac writes:
WoooooOOOOOOOoooooOoo!

ICSC-UBS reports mixed results for the Jan. 5 week with a solid 0.4 percent week-on-week rise that it attributes to gift card sales but a very soft 1.9 percent year-on-year rate that is the weakest since June. Week-on-week results in this series, due to calendar and seasonal factors, are often very jumpy which puts the focus on the year-on-year rate. Redbook is next up next later this morning and this report has for the last three weeks been showing the lowest year-on-year rates since July.

ac | 01.08.08 - 9:57 am | #

Mike writes:
Jan 08, 2008 12:55 GMT
Store Sales Y/Y change
Actual 1.0%
Previous 1.6%


from US redbook
Mike | 01.08.08 - 10:01 am | #

sterlingerl writes:
An open thread? OMG! I dunno Tanta, I think we need a grownup in charge even at the best of times. I wouldn't mind a little debate on gold, since someone else already brought it up. It seemed to me through most of 07 that there was a concerted, shall we say, "effort" to keep the gold price down. Was I imagining things? Now it is up to $875 today and the various players seem to have lost the will to fight this thing. Comments?
sterlingerl | 01.08.08 - 10:04 am | #

ac writes:
l u gold doubters need to rethink your calculus. this is a crisis is confidence of fiat currency.

Nah. Just the hedgies moving out of stocks and crazy debt securities and into commodities.

Just pushing to lump to another part of the carpet.

ac | 01.08.08 - 10:05 am | #

Beano writes:
So much for after-holiday shopping spree.

Retailers are toast.
Beano | 01.08.08 - 10:05 am | #

dryfly writes:
Figure skating? What's wrong with hockey?

dryfly | 01.08.08 - 10:06 am | #

Meltdown Man writes:
Figure skate this...Gold to cross three figure 8's soooooooonnnn! Yah, Baby!!
Meltdown Man | 01.08.08 - 10:11 am | #

Mike writes:
Pending home sales are pointing to more trouble ahead for the housing market with the index falling 2.6 percent in November to 87.6. The year-on-year decline is 19.2 percent, in line with a host of other housing indicators showing 20 percent year-on-year declines.

Market is glad that it's over...
Mike | 01.08.08 - 10:14 am | #

rcyran writes:
Bumper Crop of New Casinos Raises Hopes of a Housing Comeback in Hard-Hit Nevada:
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/071227/n..._woes.html? .v=2

I'm currently in Vegas for work, and yes the Casino boom is remarkable.

But my God, I think this place is awful. Just a big Potemkin village full of desperate people hoping to strike it big. Seeing the five acre "dancing water fountains" (which spurt in sync to Elton John) almost forced me back east on my first day here.
rcyran | 01.08.08 - 10:16 am | #

rcyran writes:
BTW-
In reference to the Vegas story - I guess if there's anywhere where Says Law will hopefully be invoked, it's Vegas. Not gonna happen, but those realtors can dream!
rcyran | 01.08.08 - 10:24 am | #

idoc writes:
Nah. Just the hedgies moving out of stocks and crazy debt securities and into commodities.

Just pushing to lump to another part of the carpet.

ac

well there certainly is an element of that too. i'll take it.
idoc | 01.08.08 - 10:27 am | #

Berylmarkham writes:
Vegas is awful. Those fountains should be illegal -- all the water just evaporating. Hope someone at the MIT Media Lab is working on how to make fountains _look_ real, without using any water. Or maybe Ricky Jay could do that.


Aesthetics:

the Seurat drawings are the most beautiful ones ever made by a painter.
Berylmarkham | 01.08.08 - 10:30 am | #

Journeyman writes:
I paid off the mortgage on a house last week. What should I expect to get from the bank? How do I check to see if everything has been recorded properly?
Journeyman | 01.08.08 - 10:30 am | #

OC Smokes writes:
Dorothy Hamill has been diagnosed with breast cancer. Anyone with tickets to "Broadway on Ice" should be advised that she will be missing a few shows to get treatment.
OC Smokes | 01.08.08 - 10:45 am | #

Aheadofthecurve writes:
"Retailers are toast."

Perhaps they'll have to stock better products and actually hire people who know something about them. What are the odds on that?

As for Vegas, perhaps they should just move the bombing range outside of town onto the strip. OTOH, Kansas City has some really nice fountains.
Aheadofthecurve | 01.08.08 - 10:48 am | #

myeyesareburning writes:
(which spurt in sync to Elton John)
rcyran | 01.08.08 - 10:16 am | #

Never, EVER should those words appear in a sentence together.
myeyesareburning | 01.08.08 - 11:10 am | #

RacerX writes:
To get this started you should have posted "Looks like the housing market has bottomed out and recession has been avoided. Any thoughts on this".
RacerX | 01.08.08 - 11:14 am | #

Kicker writes:
I paid off the mortgage on a house last week. What should I expect to get from the bank? How do I check to see if everything has been recorded properly?

Congrats JourneyMan...

I guessed the mortgage company would send me the "deed" to my house, suitable for framing. Unfortunately, the process is a bit underwhelming.

Hopefully, they will send you a copy of the release that was sent to the county records. The county will remove the lien on your house. It's a good idea to go to the county in a few weeks a request a copy to make sure the lien was removed.

Some servicers will just send you back a copy of the original mortgage stamped canceled. You then need to make sure that the lien is released.

If you want to be extra cautious a title company can help you with the process.

Oh, and people may jump on my for this but I think it's a good idea to get a HELOC on your house after it's paid off. It will put a lien back on the house for the amount of your credit limit on the HELOC.

It will keep you from dropping completely off the charts as far as the credit bureaus are concerned. It will also help you stand out less if somebody does an quick asset search. And, it also puts the banks processes of protecting their interest in your house in place. They'll usually be notified of any tax or mechanics liens on your house (good backup plan).

Of course, it's also a good financial backup plan. The bank isn't going to give you the loan if you needed the money (for whatever reason).
Kicker | 01.08.08 - 11:18 am | #

KP writes:
Anyone else concerned about the recent "fake charge" the US just tried to pull in front of the refs with respect to those Iranian boats?

Is GW/Cheney actually crazy enough to make a grab for Iran too?
KP | 01.08.08 - 11:18 am | #

Kicker writes:
A writeup by Russ Winters on the sudden drop in non-borrowed bank reserves:

http://wallstreetexaminer.com/bl.../winter/? p=1314

I'm still not sure what this means, but it looks like its the reason why deposit rates haven't dropped along with the FFR.
Kicker | 01.08.08 - 11:30 am | #

Punch My Ticket writes:
We are all subprime now.

http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/...ee- paulson.html
Punch My Ticket | 01.08.08 - 11:34 am | #

nades writes:
Yal I'm short gaming too. There is so much of it being built by indian casinos that the demand is going to be spread out. Mass. was just looking at building one themselves. I'm short LVS and WYNN but they are premier and in Vegas and China so I might be nuts! :)
nades | Homepage | 01.08.08 - 11:35 am | #

Worried writes:
Dryfly

Feel the power here!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x...related& search=

ac

"Nah. Just the hedgies moving out of stocks and crazy debt securities and into commodities."

Are you really serious?

I can feel the fear.
Worried | Homepage | 01.08.08 - 11:39 am | #

sterlingerl writes:
Worried,
Makes perfect sense. Would YOU want to be long equities in 2008? Hedge funds want to be where they can make money in a short time frame (unlike pension funds which are managed by bumbling old foggies with long term liabilities to match and equally bumbling trustees to answer to, who point to charts showing that equities go up over fifty years...). If you goal is to actually make money this year rather than just keep the trustees off your case, you would get out of equities. And you gotta put that cash somewhere right? Or else give it back, which isn't really an option.
sterlingerl | 01.08.08 - 11:51 am | #

Banker writes:
A very strage thing is happening in Hawaii. The real estate market is hectic. Why? Two reasons. 1) Candians got significantly richer in US terms over the pasat six months and they are everywhere and 2) it is the season.

It is disorienting to read about the mainland and then see the activity here. Oh well, the season could still collapse I suppose! :)
Banker | 01.08.08 - 11:51 am | #

Broker writes:
Tanta was not wrong about Freddie.
Tanta was not wrong about Freddie.
...............................
I ran out of chalk.
Broker | 01.08.08 - 11:54 am | #

NoVa writes:
Tanta: The Wells Fargo post on their adding to the paperwork that not all of your interest can be deducted? Well, that was on an interest only loan.

Those F-18's colliding. Surprised it has happened only once so far. Three carrier groups are operating in a very small area.

My guess is who ever is running that Navy task group is glad Bushco has only one year left. Not firing will not get him promoted. 200 yards is way to close anyway.

The Admiral running that part of the world is supposedly not a Cheney fan, and has been under a lot of pressure to be more aggressive. Keep in mind that these CO's are remembering the USS Cole. Career over for that CO. The CO of the ship that took out the Iranian passenger jet years back was promoted.

One mistake by an over zealous member of either side leads to bad things happening. It is also highly probable that US SpecOps teams are on Iranian soil now.

Anyone ever read "The Guns of August?"
NoVa | 01.08.08 - 12:03 pm | #

Journeyman writes:
"these CO's are remembering the USS Cole"

Perhaps. It may also be the case that those w/ the most to lose in a war are the least likely to start one.
Journeyman | 01.08.08 - 12:15 pm | #

muzical chairzz writes:
The key word for 2007 really should be UNEXPECTED.

As in this whole (insert Subprime/CDO/financial market/loss, etc) was so UNEXPECTED.

That the muzic stopped was so UNEXPECTED
muzical chairzz | 01.08.08 - 12:53 pm | #

Matt writes:
No, don't go into commodities.

Q: "How do you make a small fortune in commodities?"
A:"Start with a large fortune".
Matt | 01.08.08 - 1:36 pm | #

Francis writes:
A company with the great name of "Integrefi" opened in the building I work in, in Irvine, CA. They even paid to put their name in BIG letters on the outside of the building.

The move and signage was done this summer.

Integrefi no longer answers the telephone and the suite is dark.

(your friendly neighborhood land use lawyer)
Francis | 01.08.08 - 1:55 pm | #

Peter Schaeffer writes:
More Sasha Cohen please.
Peter Schaeffer | 01.08.08 - 2:12 pm | #

John Lockwood writes:
OK, this is related to finance and aesthetics. I've been digging into more and more mortgage related reading lately and I just wanted to say I really enjoy your blog. I should be getting you some link love soon.

Thanks again for a great resource.
John Lockwood | Homepage | 01.08.08 - 3:24 pm | #

other Jim writes:
Figure skating? What's wrong with hockey?

Nothing is wrong with hockey except it distracted my professor from giving me any help every Monday and Wednesday afternoon (must go teach westerners how to play Minn. style)
other Jim | 01.08.08 - 3:44 pm | #

sk writes:

A writeup by Russ Winters on the sudden drop in non-borrowed bank reserves:
...
I'm still not sure what this means..
Kicker


This got beaten about a bit last night in this blog !
http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.c...-step- down.html

around half-along in that conversation - and at a numerical level at that - right at the actual tables. No real conclusions. Your input is appreciated.

-K
sk | Homepage | 01.08.08 - 5:42 pm | #

Dave S. writes:
Banker,

About Hawaii... Yeah, it seems incongruous! I do production for an Architect friend of mine over there and we've got jobs lined up like ducks for the next year (mix of commercial and high-end residential).

Here's a hilarious 'globalism in action' tale... One of our clients for a home is a Russian fisherman who made a fortune in Alaska's fishery, and is building his retirement home in Hawaii. Chuckles.

Aesthetics:

Frank Lloyd Wright created the only architectural style unique to the USA, and we turned our backs on it. Saddly, art is dead.

Good day, all.

Dave S.
Dave S. | 01.08.08 - 5:44 pm | #