FFDIC writes:
NY Times - This Is the Sound of a Bubble Bursting
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/2...ml? ref=business
Boston Globe Opinion - America's economic perfect storm
http://www.boston.com/bostonglob..._perfect_storm/
FFDIC | 12.22.07 - 10:09 pm | #

iceman writes:
Prices down 11% in nominal terms, perhaps 15% in real terms is huge given how sticky prices in residential real estate tend to be. I guess the intractably higher march of inventory is expected to force sellers to capitulate.
iceman | 12.22.07 - 10:18 pm | #

Robert Coté writes:
Ahh. What could be better? A cabernet, the fireplace in the ski cabin crackling, "White Christmas" on the dvd and a new dataset. Thanks CR.
Robert Coté | Homepage | 12.22.07 - 10:21 pm | #

Banker writes:
What could be better? That's easy! 80, sunny, just back from a swim...and a new data set! :)
Banker | 12.22.07 - 10:25 pm | #

tj & the bear writes:
Ski cabins for everyone! How many "for sale" signs have you seen up there, Robert?
tj & the bear | 12.22.07 - 10:26 pm | #

CalculatedRisk writes:
FFDIC, that graphic on Florida is pretty amazing. The ripple effects are everywhere.

iceman, sticky - yeah - but not stuck. Eventually people are forced to sell. This is just the 25 largest cities - so the national price decline will be less. If 11% is correct, than I'd expect the national decline (Case-Shiller) to be in the 6% to 8% range.

Robert, I like data!

Best to all.
CalculatedRisk | Homepage | 12.22.07 - 10:26 pm | #

Kevin writes:
I cant wait for the ski cabin...2 more week till CO.
Kevin | Homepage | 12.22.07 - 10:30 pm | #

Robert Coté writes:
Banker,
That was this morning. We asked the kids 'surf or ski?" and they said yes.
Robert Coté | Homepage | 12.22.07 - 10:32 pm | #

Banker writes:
Robert,

You're an awfully nice parent!
Banker | 12.22.07 - 10:35 pm | #

lookin to buy in KC writes:
It hardly seems as if people are being forced to sell here, more like they are just letting them go back to the bank! As I'm sitting here spending my second Christmas in this awful apartment, it's not very consoling to be informed that all I'm saving is a mere 6-8% by waiting... why not buy now?
lookin to buy in KC | 12.22.07 - 10:35 pm | #

Anonymous writes:
OT

A U.S roofing company billionaire, has died after falling through his roof.

The 91st richest man in the U.S, Ken Hendricks, 66, was on his garage roof when it gave way and he fell to the ground.

http://feeds.bignewsnetwork.com/...com/? sid=311545

Things that make you want to go Hummmmm
Anonymous | 12.22.07 - 10:35 pm | #

Robert Coté writes:
tj&b,
We sold our last non-personal use property up here in Apr 06 to a realtor no less. He had it back for sale these last two months and the sign is down now. DQNews tracks this location. Wrightwood Zip 92397 12 sales $277k median -20.3% yoy $237/sf

When we sold: 68 listed 30 closings. Now: 178 listed 12 closings.
Robert Coté | Homepage | 12.22.07 - 10:39 pm | #

Robyn writes:
CR - Interesting graphics indeed. Although sales volume is down in my neck of the woods - it seems that prices are still going up (who would have thunk it?). There is a big difference between Cape Coral (an area where it's hard to find a job paying over $25k a year unless you're selling houses) and my home town - Ponte Vedra Beach - where - for example - there are hundreds of doctors at Mayo Clinic making nice six figure incomes. The bottom line is you need a real economy with real people who are making real incomes to support real estate prices. Cape Coral never was - and never will be (at least in my lifetime) - that kind of place.

As an aside - one of my favorite financial commentators is Art Cashin. He always says - be careful about predicting the end of the world - because it can only happen once.
Robyn | 12.22.07 - 10:45 pm | #

blaze writes:
What is radar logic using for a futures market? I thought Case-Shiller was the only market.

I refer to the paper money blog for my RE futures..
blaze | 12.22.07 - 10:48 pm | #

mp writes:
Anonymous, Hendricks was a roofer and a man's man, who was having work done on his garage roof. He was on his roof, albeit at night, inspecting the work. He was, by all accounts, one hell of a guy.

Shit happens.
mp | 12.22.07 - 11:16 pm | #

Hiding in NM writes:
Ah! The old "beach or mountain?" debate.

We've just had a nice snowfall in time for Christmas skiers.

Let's hope for a bountiful season. Otherwise it will be a sad spring in the southern-most U.S. ski town.

Banker and I had an exchange many months ago regarding the impact of falling real estate on resort towns.

I'm increasingly convinced that trends in discretionary real estate markets (second homes) follow "primary" real estate markets (places where livelihoods are earned).

Around here, the "urban myth" is that it's different here because second homeowners have the financial capacity to weather the downturn. Like all myths there's a kernel of truth. But it's wrapped in a coating of wishful thinking.

Bottom line? We're skating on thin ice, but hoping mother nature will bless us with a great ski season.

-- Hiding Out
Hiding in NM | 12.22.07 - 11:17 pm | #

tj & the bear writes:
Around here, the "urban myth" is that it's different here because second homeowners have the financial capacity to weather the downturn.

Funny, I've always heard that the financial capacity to weather downturns came from the ability to sell things you don't need (like second homes) when necessary.
tj & the bear | 12.22.07 - 11:23 pm | #

Anonymous writes:
Even President Bush expressed concern, calling on firms with exposure to the sub-prime crisis to "put it all on the table."

"And if there's some write-downs to be done, they (Wall Street firms) need to do it now," the president said during his last press conference of the year.

While sub-prime assets may be losing value at similar rates, not all firms holding sub-prime debt face the same requirements to write the debt down, says Benton Gup, professor of finance at the University of Alabama.

Banks and bank holding companies such as Citigroup must maintain minimum capital requirements. That is not true of hedge funds, and brokerage firms have different capital standards, too. Expecting all to mark assets to market in identical ways would be an "apples and oranges" comparison.
Anonymous | 12.22.07 - 11:27 pm | #

Anonymous writes:
Is anyone worried about 2 million ARM resets in the first seven months of 2008?
Anonymous | 12.22.07 - 11:36 pm | #

FFDIC writes:
Telegraph - Crisis may make 1929 look a 'walk in the park' (most viewed)
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money...C- mostviewedbox
FFDIC | 12.22.07 - 11:38 pm | #

Alec writes:
I always thought Citi had to work their way UP to minimal cap req., even in good times, since the travelers deal.

Re:2nd houses.

Maybe if they hadn't bought too much 1st house they could afford the 2nd.

The interesting thing over the next couple of years is how very light jets could alter 2nd home distro.

Why buy the usual development near Taos or Angel Fire when you can buy near a muni airport?
Alec | 12.22.07 - 11:43 pm | #

Grim Reaper writes:
"Telegraph - Crisis may make 1929 look a 'walk in the park' (most viewed)"

Yikes!
Grim Reaper | 12.22.07 - 11:45 pm | #

arbogast writes:
FFDIC,

Marvelous links. Thank you.
arbogast | 12.22.07 - 11:51 pm | #

homedad43 writes:
Read the FFDIC link to Evans Ambrose Pritchard...I can't figure out who talks funnier, the English or the NY Banker ("adverse self-reinforcing dynamic" - huhhhh?).

Keep the cabernet, I'll stick with the beer. Found a microbrewery in Easton,PA that has a particular blend that I can send to members of the Fed. It's called "Blithering Idiot".
homedad43 | 12.22.07 - 11:53 pm | #

JD writes:
The Radar Logic business model as I see it:
1. Collect a lot of data from public records for 25 large MSAs.
2. In order to distinguish the company from the other existing sources that already do exactly the same thing, display the data in a daily and weekly format in addition to the conventional monthy format.
3. Also display the data in an unusual $/sqft format, and imply that that is important without stating why.
4. Repeatly claim that it is critical that the data be diplayed in a daily format, but don't explain why that is despite the fact that the claim flys in the face of conventional wisdom about sample size. And try to avoid the uncomfortable truth that the 'daily' data is 10 weeks old.
5. Try to recoup costs/make profit by offering market analysis, and claiming the analysis is somehow better than others that do the same thing because the data is analyized on a daily basis and on $/sqft basis.
6. Stake out an extraordinary negative position on future prices and hope that the market will tank so they will gain credibity. If the market doesn't tank, well so be it, it is most likely that the entire company is run by one guy from his home with almost no overhead.
JD | 12.22.07 - 11:55 pm | #

arbogast writes:
I like the Kuttner comment about "nationalizing bank debt".

That's what's going on. Bernanke, I think correctly, views his job as not letting banks fail. One big bank failure, say Citi, would be enough to bring the country to its knees. Whatever the dollar's worth now, it would be worth a fraction of that afterwards.

Of course, through the miracle of globalization, Bernanke isn't the only one. The ECB is rapidly discovering that the European banks are going under too. Credit Agricole confesses to about $4 billion in bad loans.

So bank debt is going to be nationalized world-wide to save the banking system.

I see that as deflationary. No loans => no money.
arbogast | 12.22.07 - 11:56 pm | #

sk writes:
I read Radar Logic, but I grok Radar Love, man. what's with this ?

Thanks much for the post. I'll read at leisure.

-K
sk | Homepage | 12.22.07 - 11:57 pm | #

rich writes:
NY Times - This Is the Sound of a Bubble Bursting

Boston Globe Opinion - America's economic perfect storm

What you're seeing in these articles is the turning of the MSM from blurry-eyed cheerleading into skepticism about the crumbling state of the economy and the negative influence of bushco. It's an important shift.

Business has had the best possible environment to inflate profits for the last five years at the expense of long-term economic stability. It will soon become apparent to the media and Wall Street: 1) that the Republican jokester candidates have no chance to win in 08; and 2) the Dems will have not only the White House and huge majorities in Congress but also an electoral mandate to deconstruct bushco, in almost a semi-socialist way. As this realization takes hold in the next 3-4 months, it will shift business sentiment to extreme pessimism IMHO.
rich | 12.22.07 - 11:57 pm | #

arbogast writes:
More specifically, what has happened is that credit has been taken out of private hands and put into the hands of the government. Ultimately, that will produce more regulated lending...much more regulated lending.

Think of it this way: how much money do you think Grover Norquist will lend you?
arbogast | 12.22.07 - 11:58 pm | #

arbogast writes:
rich,

You are right. That is the interesting observation. The MSM has started to turn. Good point.
arbogast | 12.23.07 - 12:01 am | #

FFDIC writes:
Yes, it is true to a point that the MSM has started a slow turn but dudes these nice links I posted 10:09 pm are the BOSTON GLOBE and NY TIMES never pro Bushie rags from what little I know. I'm off to search for clues in the Dallas Morning Snooze! Later...
FFDIC | 12.23.07 - 12:12 am | #

mp writes:
FFDIC Link- "The kind of upheaval observed in the international money markets over the past few months has never been witnessed in history," says Thomas Jordan, a Swiss central bank governor."

Anna Schwartz is correct. This isn't about liquidity. As Krugman and CR have also pointed out, it's about solvency and transparency. The junk must come on the books. Yesterday wasn't soon enough.

Conjure Clock: 11:59:00
mp | 12.23.07 - 12:16 am | #

Anonymous writes:
"The kind of upheaval observed in the international money markets over the past few months has never been witnessed in history," says Thomas Jordan, a Swiss central bank governor."

--------------

But the Wright Model B says no recession so we should go long.
Anonymous | 12.23.07 - 12:19 am | #

dunham writes:
re: $/SF

It is interesting that Radar Logic uses this nationwide. Here in NYC, the $/SF number is the ONLY important number in terms of comparables, understandable when prices easily run upwards of $1,500/SF (thats $1.5 million for a 1,000 SF one-bedroom kids).

Not sure how applicable this is nationwide, though I wouldn't be surprised if the run-up in $/SF is muted compared to the "per unit" number, since SFH's have been growing in size considerably.
dunham | 12.23.07 - 12:26 am | #

dryfly writes:
Funny, I've always heard that the financial capacity to weather downturns came from the ability to sell things you don't need (like second homes) when necessary.
tj & the bear | 12.22.07 - 11:23 pm | #

Amen.

And they don't panic because they believe they can then buy them back in the future once the storm has passed and income and assets are again secure. They have the confidence - right or wrong - to believe they will earn enough again to be back.

The folks who hang on for dear life to floundering assets are the ones who often believe this is the one and only shot to 'live large' and risk losing all (the things they didn't need as well as those they really do).

dryfly | 12.23.07 - 12:34 am | #

Stuart writes:
Asset devaluation at that pace. Hmmm.. cascading counterparty default reports coming to a blog near you soon, real soon.

P.S. As an example, ACA was counterparty on 60 Billion or so. I wonder who was at the other end of those besides CIBC that now has to pick up that tab on their books.
Stuart | 12.23.07 - 12:44 am | #

folkers writes:
off-topic, but the California public pension fund is going more into real estate; seems crazy. But it looks like they are gambling on risky returns to shore up obligations to pensioners. I
don't think this will end well.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/ wp...7122200088.html
folkers | 12.23.07 - 12:46 am | #

FFDIC writes:
Gretchen Morgenson - Clicking the Way to Mortgage Savings
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/2...ml? ref=business
FFDIC | 12.23.07 - 12:55 am | #

ron writes:
off-topic, but the California public pension fund is going more into real estate; seems crazy. But it looks like they are gambling on risky returns to shore up obligations to pensioners. I
don't think this will end well.

They have been at this for awhile. Back in 2001 they bought 600 acres up in Oregon near Clayton and planted wine grapes. There goal was to subdivide this 600 acres into mimi pinot Noir estates, with the slowing RE market I am not sure how well that will go but they are the largest grower in Oregon now. Lots of big promises to fill in those retirement packages.
ron | Homepage | 12.23.07 - 1:06 am | #

crispy&cole writes:
From the telegraph piece:

"Lenders are hoarding the cash, shunning peers as if all were sub-prime lepers"

LOL. where have I heard this before...
crispy&cole | Homepage | 12.23.07 - 1:06 am | #

Richard writes:
for the nth year in a row we were told by the doom and gloomers that consumers would lock themselves in their caves and not spend money this holiday season. numbers once again show the complete opposite. don't let the cult of the bear paralyze you.
Richard | 12.23.07 - 1:08 am | #

mp writes:
"don't let the cult of the bear paralyze you."

Don't let the cult of the bull impoverish you.
mp | 12.23.07 - 1:11 am | #

crispy&cole writes:
Richard-

Sales tax receipts are down 10% YOY in Fl and close to that in CA. the consumer has finally slowed down...
crispy&cole | Homepage | 12.23.07 - 1:14 am | #

transient writes:
Richard,

Shoppers too little, too late to save season.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22361066/
transient | 12.23.07 - 1:16 am | #

RayOnTheFarm writes:
LOL. where have I heard this before...
crispy&cole | Homepage | 12.23.07 - 1:06 am

"We have met the enemy, and he is us" Walt Kelly
RayOnTheFarm | 12.23.07 - 1:16 am | #

AlphaBeta writes:
Even Indians are leaving...

"Descendants of Sitting Bull, Crazy Horse break away from US

2 days ago

WASHINGTON (AFP) — The Lakota Indians, who gave the world legendary warriors Sitting Bull and Crazy Horse, have withdrawn from treaties with the United States, leaders said Wednesday.

"We are no longer citizens of the United States of America and all those who live in the five-state area that encompasses our country are free to join us," long-time Indian rights activist Russell Means told a handful of reporters and a delegation from the Bolivian embassy, gathered in a church in a run-down neighborhood of Washington for a news conference.

A delegation of Lakota leaders delivered a message to the State Department on Monday, announcing they were unilaterally withdrawing from treaties they signed with the federal government of the United States, some of them more than 150 years old.

They also visited the Bolivian, Chilean, South African and Venezuelan embassies, and will continue on their diplomatic mission and take it overseas in the coming weeks and months, they told the news conference.

Lakota country includes parts of the states of Nebraska, South Dakota, North Dakota, Montana and Wyoming.

The new country would issue its own passports and driving licences, and living there would be tax-free -- provided residents renounce their US citizenship, Means said.

The treaties signed with the United States are merely "worthless words on worthless paper," the Lakota freedom activists say on their website."

Any name suggestions for the new nation?
AlphaBeta | 12.23.07 - 1:19 am | #

FFDIC writes:
A Picture of Paper Assets, Gone Mad
http://www.elliottwave.com/featu...ult.aspx? cat=mw

Financial Armageddon also posted this:
http://www.financialarmageddon.com/
FFDIC | 12.23.07 - 1:28 am | #

Barley writes:
Just an observation...for more years than I care to count my brother and I get together at this time of year and do some serious shopping. Not that we buy much mind you, but we do shop.

We basically hunt for period antiques and furniture. After four days and two cities we are astounded at the prices for stuff!

This is not about prices increases or decreases. This is not about shallow inventories nor hard to find items.

It is about the complete wholesale decline of the antique market.

Shocked at the amount of inventory and the unreal prices. A period table selling for 5k just three years ago now goes for $100.00

Same story all around - NO buyers.
Barley | 12.23.07 - 1:32 am | #

NC Jim writes:
The NY Times article about Florida is not describing a recession, it is describing a dust bowl style depression. Let's hope the areas described are the exception and not the rule.

New subject: A quote from Doug Noland's Credit Bubble Bulletin:

http://www.prudentbear.com/ index...bleBulletinHome

"To keep the music playing required increasingly egregious excesses – ever greater quantities of increasingly risky loans, structures and leveraging. The Credit Insurers came to play a critical role in perpetuating the Bubble. They could not resist the allure of easy “profits” insuring Wall Street’s creative “structured Credit products,” while at the same time aggressively expanding their traditional guarantee business at the top of a Historic Credit Cycle. The Credit insurers destroyed themselves."
NC Jim | 12.23.07 - 1:38 am | #

Bob Dobbs writes:
"This is not about prices increases or decreases. This is not about shallow inventories nor hard to find items.

It is about the complete wholesale decline of the antique market.

Shocked at the amount of inventory and the unreal prices. A period table selling for 5k just three years ago now goes for $100.00"

When we made more money, the wife and I used to buy original art, mainly paintings by decent local artists, in the $500-$1000 range. It's been several years, and equivalent paintings by equivalent artists still sell in that range.

Aside from the high-end auctions of piecs with international cachet, the price of everyday art has stalled.
Bob Dobbs | Homepage | 12.23.07 - 1:44 am | #

Alan Greenspan writes:
"Any name suggestions for the new nation?"

I would have suggested India, if it were not taken.
Alan Greenspan | 12.23.07 - 1:53 am | #

Revro writes:
well i hope that people of Lakota will be allowed to live an independent happy free life just like those nice people from kosovo :)
Revro | 12.23.07 - 2:00 am | #

Banker writes:
Hiding out,

Around here, the "urban myth" is that it's different here because second homeowners have the financial capacity to weather the downturn. Like all myths there's a kernel of truth. But it's wrapped in a coating of wishful thinking.

What seems to be happening in permanently sunny land is that the oceanfront stuff in good shape is still seeing increasing prices but the off ocean stuff is flattish to down a little and if you are outside the resorts where the regular working folks live it is pretty ugly. Around here we'll know a LOT more in 60 days.
Banker | 12.23.07 - 2:12 am | #

Robert Coté writes:
The new Dakota nation will free up 4 seats in the Senate. Seeing as Ventura County is the 46th largest State by population and nowhere near the bottom decile by any other metric we'd like two of them please.
Robert Coté | Homepage | 12.23.07 - 2:17 am | #

yogurt writes:
iceman, sticky - yeah - but not stuck. Eventually people are forced to sell

But nobody is forced to buy, ever. Don't forget that.
yogurt | 12.23.07 - 2:46 am | #

sk writes:
A period table selling for 5k just three years ago now goes for $100.00

Same story all around - NO buyers.
Barley


I will skip the immediate joke that springs to mind - celeb or not, she's still a kid and separately and moving on, the Los Alamos lab provides them from free yanno:

http://periodic.lanl.gov/default.htm

-K
sk | Homepage | 12.23.07 - 2:48 am | #

Hazard writes:
Barley, my wife deals in very, very specialized antiques. She has done this for more than 20 years and so has a good name in the business. Often she sells but almost always when someone is aware of her collection and contacts her.

Anyway, in the past we have made hunting trips outside this country for the purchases she is interested in. This year, she has been bombarded with calls, letters, emails re articles for sale which is totally different than in years past.

From her comments, I get the idea there are a lot of good deals in antiques today. Her sales are very light this year, I think a lot of people are in financial difficulties.
Hazard | 12.23.07 - 2:50 am | #

hiker90 writes:
I don't think the Radar Logic list contains the 25 largest MSA. No way Columbus, Ohio is larger than the top three Texas MSAs of Houston, Dallas-Fort Worth, and San Antonio. Heck, Austin is now probably bigger than Columbus.

I think it's a matter of public records since Texas does not require home sales prices to be reported to government agencies. Our appraisal districts have to get sales data from the MLS. One more reason why I can't stand realtors and their political clout.
hiker90 | 12.23.07 - 2:56 am | #

yogurt writes:
One big bank failure, say Citi, would be enough to bring the country to its knees. Whatever the dollar's worth now, it would be worth a fraction of that afterwards.

That makes no sense whatsoever. The dollar is worth what you can buy with it. Bank failures are deflationary, and in a deflationary scenario prices go down, and the dollar's worth rises, by definition.

The dollar's worth rose greatly in the 1930's. Problem was people didn't have any dollars to spend.
yogurt | 12.23.07 - 2:58 am | #

w writes:
From FFDIC's link to the Boston Globe

Section 13 (3) allows the Fed to take emergency action when banks become "unwilling or very reluctant to provide credit". A vote by five governors can - in "exigent circumstances" - authorise the bank to lend money to anybody, and take upon itself the credit risk.

There is always something interesting to be learned.
w | 12.23.07 - 3:22 am | #

Revro writes:
the difference to 1930 is that the world is now globalized so i think we will continue seeing sovereign fonds to buy stakes in troubled banks. i personally think we are going to witness in the next 20 years US to default on its obligation and as a friend of mine said then we can go and live in the trees. simply too many obligations and no way to pay for them. even if somenone tried to pay them and the taxes were raised we will see a capital flight. funny thing is that now when everyone is scared to death everyone flees to treasuries and there are not enough of them.

now i can understand people who have millions that they invest in treasuries since they are backed by the government, but most folks with less money are just ok by having the money in insured deposits.

does someone know how it was after russian default? some details about the debt restructuralization? because that is certainly going to happen with the us.

thanks
Revro | 12.23.07 - 4:06 am | #

Troy writes:
a mere 6-8% by waiting

Don't know about you, but my situ is paying $1500/mo rent waiting on a $550K condo.

Rent's going up 10%/yr, condo going down 5%, they'll met when the rent is $2300 and the condo is $450k, 3-4 years from now.

The $100k cost savings (not counting interest!) will easily pay for ALL of the rent while I'm waiting.

This condo hit $350K at the peak in 2001 (when rents were pushing $2000)+, fell back to $300K during the 2002-2003 slump, powered back up to $350K in 2004, and rocketed up to $550K in 2005. Hiring is still good in this area so I don't expect prices to return to $350K, but prices are certainly not going up now so there's no hurry to buy now.
Troy | 12.23.07 - 5:40 am | #

kk writes:
You cannot use Radar logic futures to estimate forward housing prices.

Radar logic futures are low because all of wall street needs to hedge their crappy positions against a downturn in the housing market.

Consequently there is tremendous selling pressure on radar logic futures. It is the only housing futures market that trades, and thinly at best.

Because financial markets are so levered to forward housing prices, the quoted forward prices have to be lower.

However, that does not mean that forward prices will be realized.
kk | 12.23.07 - 6:11 am | #

Aheadofthecurve writes:
What exactly is new about booms and busts in Florida real estate? Hasn't anyone seen the Marx Brothers Cocoanuts. You can get any kind of house you want; you can even get stucco-Oh, boy can you get stucco!

rich-totally diagree about the effect of a Democratic landslide. Market historically does better under Dems. Corporate donations to Dems are running about 2:1 over Repubs. A new Administration will have a very positive psychological effect.

Yes, bank debt is being nationalized to some extent. So what? There is also an enormous excess of savings in Asia and Middle East flowing in to recapitalize banks. Laws of thermodynamics say any quantity (matter, energy, money) flows from where it is at high density to where it is at low density. In the real economy an awful lot of companies are sitting on more cash than they know what to do with (like pharma and energy for example). Watch all that excess cash go to work (and it won't sit in T-bills at 3 % for long).
Aheadofthecurve | 12.23.07 - 6:31 am | #

Candyman_Asia writes:
Here in Singapore where I live, the Christmas shopping season is still posting strong numbers, due largely to a few unique factors that are going well for the local economy.

Yes, the "Singapore" that invested in UBS convertible bonds and is looking at investment in Merrill L. I tend to think they are a bit too early on this.

However, I did observe exports number slowing down and our local housing boom on a slight reversal. Still a relative strong 2007 on the balance. Need a bit more squeeze onn the credit side from wall street to jurk the Singapore economy to s stand still.

However, you can trust us Asians to tighten our belts when things are not looking right. We Asians REALLY know how to save and thrift on things.

The local stock markets are showing some signs of distribution but the underltying tone is still relatively bulish.

The Singapore economy is usually about 9 to 12 months behind the US. I am still hoarding alot of cash (the local currency had appreciated about 30% against the greenback over the last 4yrs) waiting to buy some deflated assets.
Candyman_Asia | 12.23.07 - 7:08 am | #

skytrekker writes:
The Boston Globe article's primary idea is that under the conservative philosophy of the last 30 years, Government has been trashed, and the Private sector called the Savior to rescue and solve all of the nations ills, be they economic or social.

Under Bush, this concept was unleashed to its maximum- without any kind of regulation-sort of a repeat of the 1920's. Many if not most republicans would love to see just about Federal government program eliminated-from the UDSA, FDA, Social Security, Medicare, VA- everything.

This mantra was basically the dream of every conservative in the last 40 years. It really began to take hold in 1980- with Reagan (now nearly 30 years ago) and every US President has basically followed that lead- be they Democrat or Republican.

At this point this grand idea by the conservatives is imploding- and in the end NO amount of clever manipulation by the FED, or the liars on Wall Street can eliminate debt, cure the extreme excesses, stop falling home prices, a zero saving rate, lack and elimination of pensions, soaring health care and more.

Some sort of reform will be needed to reign in the excesses of not only the last 7 years, but the last 30 plus years.

Some kind of semi socialist change is long overdue- or the Revolution by Night is just around the corner, and no future FDR will be able to save the capitalist system. In the records of the KGB, the hoped fall in the USA of capitalism would come from the growing power of the far left in the 21st century- they may have been onto something.
skytrekker | 12.23.07 - 7:14 am | #

vtcodger writes:
***So bank debt is going to be nationalized world-wide to save the banking system.***

Never did understand this money thing. Never will probably. The governments are going to create huge amounts of somewhat real money in order to forestall the problems caused by the evaporation of huge amounts of imaginary money and that is deflationary?

Or is the argument that some amount of normally inflationary activity (printing money and handing it to the banks in some way that does not leave them on the hook to repay it) is OK because all that does is moderate an outcome that will otherwise be REALLY deflationary?
vtcodger | 12.23.07 - 7:43 am | #

Aheadofthecurve writes:
vtcodger- In effect, yes, the central bank actions are designed to counteract deflation in credit markets. In the dotcom crash, several trillion in wealth disappeared and central banks cut rates to forestall deflation (whether the threat of deflation was real can be argued). That did not ignite inflation, though it was a factor in the housing price rise (though not the only one). I expect here, as well, the recent actions will not prove to be inflationary to any significant extent. Since the major central banks are acting together, these actions have not affected currency exchange rates much either. In fact, Forex volatility in the last few weeks is much less than it was a couple of months ago.
Aheadofthecurve | 12.23.07 - 8:01 am | #

Allen C writes:
FFDIC, You post excellent links.

From "Sound" -

“We figure we have at least six months,” Elaine Pellegrino says. “We haven’t heard a thing from the bank for a long time.”

Does anyone have any good data on foreclosure delay?
Allen C | 12.23.07 - 8:03 am | #

central_scrutinizer writes:
the Dems will have not only the White House and huge majorities in Congress but also an electoral mandate to deconstruct bushco, in almost a semi-socialist way

Rich I couldn't disagree more. The first part of your sentence is likely, but remember that Hillary has huge support from corporate America and so do Schumer, Dodd, etc. Even Obama would likely play nice with Wall St.

The only candidates who would strike fear into the heart of Wall Street are Ron Paul and perhaps John Edwards. And neither of them are going to win.
central_scrutinizer | 12.23.07 - 8:19 am | #

Dale writes:
I was wondering if anyone had any thoughts on the evolution of the nature of severe recessions/depressions in the U.S. economy, including the Panic of 1837.

It just seems to me that everyone refers back to the Great Depression but doesn't acknowledge the existence of any previous financial meltdown in U.S. history. So it's easy to say "This is nothing like the Great Depression," but... The Panic of 1837 was indeed pretty severe and had profound economic and social ramifications in the U.S.
Dale | 12.23.07 - 8:21 am | #

LeGleceau writes:
Hey Aheadofthecurve. I also reside in the Capital District. Like yourself, I've had the same neighbors for 18 plus years. I'm curious to see what with Tech Valley and all the gov't/university employment how we'll weather the downturn.
LeGleceau | 12.23.07 - 8:21 am | #

Dale writes:
rich-totally diagree about the effect of a Democratic landslide. Market historically does better under Dems.

Except there's one little problem... there ARE no Dems any more. There are just Republicans who call themselves Dems.

And any psychological uplift from a new administration is going to be just another dead cat bounce. The problems in the markets run far deeper than that and honestly, none of the Dems running strike me as being too bright - either about history, or their place in it.

We're basically electing the next Buchanan, the next Hoover here. Don't get too excited.
Dale | 12.23.07 - 8:25 am | #

Alec writes:
What exactly is new about booms and busts in Florida real estate?
-----------------------------

The main things are revenue structure and geography.

No income tax and a liberal homestead exemption means funds are generated by sales taxes & development fees along with property tax on non residents.

The scarcity of improvable land in the peninsula guarantees that when booms occur prices violently spike. When this occurs lofty appraisals means the property taxes for speculators can double or triple from the trough(usually as the economy sours) so inventory explodes as specuvestor can't afford the new nut.
Alec | 12.23.07 - 8:25 am | #

rich writes:
>The first part of your sentence is likely, but remember that Hillary has huge support from corporate America and so do Schumer, Dodd, etc. Even Obama would likely play nice with Wall St.


If Hillary is elected, she'll follow the mandate her constituents give her -- while also trying not to alienate business.

I was thinking how America can rebuild manufacturing without driving more business overseas. It would take a stick and carrot combination.

Stick = govt. requirements on large companies that do business in the U.S. to meet quotas for "American content" in raw materials and labor.

Carrot = tax breaks and govt. contracts.

Hillary would probably be a pretty good stick-and-carrot pres.
rich | 12.23.07 - 8:36 am | #

Aheadofthecurve writes:
Hey to you LeGleceau: I live in Loudonville. And you? I think the area will do pretty well overall. House prices here never went crazy. There few single-family rentals available cost about what the payments would be to buy a similar house. Because of that, I expect prices will be stable for the next few years. I laugh when I read comments by people about "housing mania"-I certainly never saw it here. I bet that's true of most mid-sized area outside FL and CA.

Don't forget GE Power Systems; they're adding a ton of jobs and their order backlog is about 1 year. I'd say the odds on AMD building their plant are 50:50, but if they do, that'll be good.
Aheadofthecurve | 12.23.07 - 8:45 am | #

yyy writes:
@ CANDYMAN_ASIA

I don't understand all this high faluting finace so could you explain something? Hoarding S$'s at a net return of 7.5% per anum when you could have been holding gold and gained about 25%? What am I missing?
yyy | 12.23.07 - 8:46 am | #

Aheadofthecurve writes:
"We're basically electing the next Buchanan, the next Hoover here" Thought that happened in 2000? Though to be fair to Buchanan and Hoover, neither started a war.
Aheadofthecurve | 12.23.07 - 8:46 am | #

rich writes:
> What exactly is new about booms and busts in Florida real estate?

Historically, Florida's boom and bust cycles, from the railroad-induced boom of the 1920s to the Cuban refugee boom of the 1960s to the Orlando resort boom of the 80s, were induced by immigration.

A century ago, Florida was the least populated and poorest state in the South. During the Civil War most of the population was blockaded and starved.

Transportation, air conditioning and medical advances to fight tropical diseases opened up South Florida for development.

Florida has abundant land, potable water, coastline and sunshine, all of which promote development in good times. But it attracts speculators and promoters who always overdo it.
rich | 12.23.07 - 8:46 am | #

Aheadofthecurve writes:
Yes rich: My point is, there is nothing new here and nothing to get that excited about. When you buy in Florida, you can indeed get stuck-o as well as stucco. I know all I need to know about Florida real estate from reading Carl Hiaasen.
Aheadofthecurve | 12.23.07 - 8:56 am | #

Revro writes:
I am still hoarding alot of cash (the local currency had appreciated about 30% against the greenback over the last 4yrs) waiting to buy some deflated assets.
Candyman
me too :) but 30% in 4 years against USD? thats lame, :) from january to november my currency SKK appreciated 25% xD

yyy: he doesnot have usd, he has money in local currency.
Revro | 12.23.07 - 9:01 am | #

risk capital writes:
Interesting 2008 ahead-

http://www.reuters.com/article/ r...127178720071221

http://online.wsj.com/article/ SB...=googlenews_wsj
risk capital | 12.23.07 - 9:07 am | #

david_in_ct writes:
"period table selling for 5k just three years ago now goes for $100.00

Same story all around - NO buyers.
Barley"

barley,
i deal in fine art and antiques as a hobby. i haven't been doing much with it since the summer because of other life stuff. i know that the decorative art market has slowed because I have some space in an antique center and sell 19th and early 20th c paintings mostly in the 2k - 10k range and things are slow. jan, feb and march are usually the best months to sell this stuff because its bonus time.
because i have a fairly long run view of these things i am happy to stock up in times of distress. if you can really buy $5,000 antique tables for $100, i will buy as many as you can get and give you a fine profit for your labors. warehouse space is cheap. in my neck of the woods, prices have not collapsed even though biz is slow. if you like you can email me at info@hubbardcourt.com
david_in_ct | 12.23.07 - 9:17 am | #

RayOnTheFarm writes:
OT,

A century ago, Florida was the least populated and poorest state in the South. During the Civil War most of the population was blockaded and starved.

the northern half of Florida (the only part with much settlement during that period) was thought of as the food pantry of the Confederacy. True, there were blockades, and the Union held Jax for the extent of the war, but most of Florida was operating (such as it was 140 years ago) as part of the Confederacy. They didn't call Gainesville "Hogtown" for nothing in those days.

and now back to our regularly scheduled blog, already in progress
RayOnTheFarm | 12.23.07 - 9:24 am | #

risk capital writes:
Stein and another Goldman jab-

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/2...ml? ref=business
risk capital | 12.23.07 - 9:53 am | #

rich writes:
> Yes rich: My point is, there is nothing new here and nothing to get that excited about.


There is something new here. For the first time in our lifetimes, Florida won't be a big growth destination going forward. That's due to slower in-migration, overcapacity, higher p/c insurance rates, and high state tax burdens to come. Florida economics are bad for the next decade at least.
rich | 12.23.07 - 9:56 am | #

Jas Jain writes:
--
Great site, but IT DOES NOT REFLECT AREA-MIX, I.E., RELATIVE # SALES IN HIGH-PRICED VERSUS LOW-PRICED AREAS.

I gather extensive data for Santa Clara Co., a good proxy for San Jose Metro. Since spring of 2006 the mix has shifted more and more to high priced areas due to GOOG and AAPL. Area mix has given a 10-15% boost to the median price for SFH. The median listing price for SCC is down 25.5% from the peak in March 2006.

Every data series on housing prices has some or other anomaly and we just need to know what it is. The worst by far is the HPI from OFHEO; it doesn't correct for area mix, obviously, as well as home modernization, which has been a major phenomenon in recent years.

Jas
Jas Jain | 12.23.07 - 9:57 am | #

Clyde writes:
And what if it is John Edwards vs. Ron Paul?

Front-loaded primary system probably precludes that matchup, especially since losses are being delayed Japanese-style.
Clyde | 12.23.07 - 10:18 am | #

LeGleceau writes:
Aheadofthecurve:

"Housing Mania" are you kidding, I live in Schenectady where not only can you pick up a nice house for 100K, we manage to pay our mayor less than the administrative assistant in my office. (I dread the day Mayor Stratton leaves for greener pastures.)

The news about GE Power systems was beyond hoped for: 500 tech. jobs at $75K plus.

At least when you live in a depressed municipality during a bubble, it doesn't leave much father to fall when it inevitably goes bust.
LeGleceau | 12.23.07 - 10:18 am | #

Tom writes:
Actually, the Radar Logic methodology on home prices is not at all similar to that of Case Shiller. Case Shiller uses a "repeat transactions" methodology (i.e., changes in prices of the "same" (by address) homes), and it does not included condos.

Radar Logic uses "price per square foot" as its raw data input; includes condos; and uses a proprietary "distribution" technique to deveop its index. RL provides a description of its methodology on its website, as does Case-Shiller.
Tom | 12.23.07 - 10:25 am | #

Jas Jain writes:
--
As per Radar Logic data series --

Annualized Condo price appreciation for the 5 years ending Sep’07 (by metro area):

Las Vegas 13.8%
New York 11.5%
Tampa 11.4%
Seattle 11.4%

Annualized Condo & SFH price appreciation for the 5 years ending Sep’07 (by metro area):

Miami 12.6%
Los Angeles 12.2%
Washington, DC 11.2%
Seattle 10.6%
Las Vegas 10.6%

Prices have a long way to fall to reach the level of Sep’02. Despite huge price drops in Las Vegas and FL we have hardly given up the gains of the bubble years. In these areas prices would have to drop 40-50% from Sep’07 levels to get back to Sep’02 prices.

Jas
Jas Jain | 12.23.07 - 10:30 am | #

David Siegel writes:
"close to 25% over the next 3 years for the 25 largest MSAs" Houston and Dallas-Ft Worth, which are both among the ten largest MSAs and neither of which are particularly bubbled, are not on this list. The estimate of 25% may therefore be high.
David Siegel | 12.23.07 - 10:45 am | #

stockmarketadvantage writes:
I marvel at the fact that it takes a 50% down payment to buy stocks on margin, but just about anyone can buy a house with no money down (used to be the case anyway).

This was just a disaster waiting to happen and it looks like its now happening before our eyes.
stockmarketadvantage | Homepage | 12.23.07 - 11:17 am | #

Cobradriver writes:
Prices have a long way to fall to reach the level of Sep’02. Despite huge price drops in Las Vegas and FL we have hardly given up the gains of the bubble years. In these areas prices would have to drop 40-50% from Sep’07 levels to get back to Sep’02 prices.

Jas
Jas Jain | 12.23.07 - 10:30 am | #

Jas,

Here in SW Florida the denial still runs deep. I finally just quit arguing with the people I work with. I actually found a 5 acre lot for sale in the area I would like to live. Pulling the historical sales records from the counties site...In 2000 lots were selling for half my annual income. The most recent sales/asking were 6 TIMES my annual income. Yea,right,that'll fly like a lead balloon.

I have a feeling 2008 is going to be a very interesting year...

Chris
Cobradriver | 12.23.07 - 11:36 am | #

Dale writes:
Housing prices never went crazy anywhere in upstate NY really. (Upstate meaning TRUE upstate, which is beyond the commuters' reach to NYC - aka, non Hudson Valley) A "high-end" home in the greater Syracuse area probably maxes out at 400-500K, and there aren't that many of them.

All during this bubble I've been amazed at what sells for what out there. A nice Colonial that would command $700K or more downstate, would probably go begging for $200K around here. We truly live in a different world up here... and frankly, seeing the turmoil the rest of the country is in, that's probably a good thing.
Dale | 12.23.07 - 11:41 am | #

bluecollaridiot writes:
stockmarketadvantage:

well if you want more leverage, there are always futures and options....course, then there is a bigger disaster than plane old margin..if things go the wrong way...its about risk..
bluecollaridiot | 12.23.07 - 12:09 pm | #

Robert Coté writes:
Upstate NY has a limiting factor of real estate taxes. There is no compunction in taxing those weekenders and summer people at truly usurious rates and since they don't vote there the usual checks and balances are gone. Friends pay more taxes on their summer cottage (chain lakes) than on their multimillion home on SoCal.
Robert Coté | Homepage | 12.23.07 - 12:32 pm | #

Anonymous writes:
Highland home-building group has put plans for a stock market flotation on hold, blaming market conditions in the UK and globally.

Inverness based Tulloch Homes Group were intending to list on the Alternative Investment Market index, but have abandoned the plans, due to the uncertain nature of the housing market.
Anonymous | 12.23.07 - 12:53 pm | #

Aheadofthecurve writes:
LeGleceau: Yes, Schenectady has some lovely historic houses at extremely low prices. Albany is higher, but the only area that could be called even a bit bubbly is Saratoga. Our school district (North Colonie) is really excellent. It has a fair number of million dollar homes, but also some perfectly fine houses for 225-250K. So your average family of a teacher and a state worker can still buy a pefectly nice house in a good area for 25 % of income.

Robert Cote (good French Canadian name; I'm from Montreal originally)-Yeah, taxes are high, but I have a 1930 all-brick 5 Br on 0.75 acres for
Aheadofthecurve | 12.23.07 - 1:25 pm | #

Aheadofthecurve writes:
Something got lost....

< $ 1500/month, including taxes and insurance.

In assessing the situation it is worth keeping in mind that large swaths of the country never really got bubbly. Pittsburgh, St Louis, KC, Milwaukee, Indianapolis, Houston, Dallas, etc. I realize that "House prices stabilize" is not as sexy a headline as "House prices crash", but it applies to many areas.
Aheadofthecurve | 12.23.07 - 1:28 pm | #

speedtheplow writes:
If 11% is the best they can do, wake me in a five years.
speedtheplow | 12.23.07 - 1:37 pm | #

Dale writes:
Upstate NY has a limiting factor of real estate taxes. There is no compunction in taxing those weekenders and summer people at truly usurious rates and since they don't vote there

Yes, but I'm referring to the large swaths of New York State which are not "summer home" territory for downstaters.

Of course, you are correct in the high property tax burden for the entire state, bad economy, etc. But up in these parts, there's no such thing as day laborers hanging out on street corners... the construction industry just couldn't support them.
Dale | 12.23.07 - 2:00 pm | #

Bruce Webb writes:
Well I clicked through. Radar Logic is showing exactly eight markets off more than 5% year to year, five of them known bubble markets (LA, San Diego, Sacramento, Las Vegas, Miami) two more probable bubble markets (Tampa and Jacksonville) topped off with with one long term distressed market (Detroit). In contrast we see Phoenix off only 2.5% y-o-y and the major markets of New York and Philadelphia solidly in plus territory.

I know I may sound like a loon here but is there any major market that is actually off over the 2004-2007 timeframe? Because I look at the numbers for Phoenix, Denver and San Francisco and see a market that is correcting and not preparing for a plunge over the cliff. If I bought a house in LA in 2003 and enjoyed double digit appreciation until late 2005 and am only off 5.5% from Sept 2006 I am not likely to be crying. You have to get down to number 15 on the list of 25 MSAs to find a market down more than 3.0%. That market is Washington DC whose previous score was 23. Phoenix went from 13 to 9, Minneapolis from 17 to 7 (and barely negative).

On the whole outside Sun Belt Specu-Land (and with Phoenix even inside) the numbers show a market that took a relatively minor hit in the last 12 months. Yeah it probably does suck to be a late coming flipper in Las Vegas and Sacramento, well that is what puts the 'suck' in 'sucker'.

BTW a chart that does not include MSAs in Texas (which has five of the largest 25 cities in the US though perhaps not corresponding MSAs) or Indianapolis and which ignores the realities of the markets in the mid-size cities of the upper plains and the mid-west and west (where's Buffalo? or Pittsburg? or Portland?) seems to share the weakness of models like Case-Schiller to start with, they tend to include and over weight high priced hot markets and neglect more stable ones. This may simply be a matter of data availability but it does leave gaping holes in the model.
Bruce Webb | Homepage | 12.23.07 - 2:33 pm | #

Robyn writes:
Jacksonville was formerly known as Cowford. When Flagler finished the railroad to Miami (late 19th century I think) - only about 50 people lived there. The history of Florida is really interesting - and I recommend that visitors here take advantage of numerous historical sites to learn about it.

"I know I may sound like a loon here but is there any major market that is actually off over the 2004-2007 timeframe?..."

I don't know whether Jacksonville is a "bubble area". I don't follow real estate prices very closely - but - according to Zillow - the value of my house went from about $450k to $800k between 1/2004 and mid-2006. Now it is supposedly worth $700k. OTOH - I don't know of any house on my block that sold for remotely what the Zillow high prices show. And if I tried to sell my house for $450k - the alleged 2004 value - I'm pretty sure I'd have a bidding war on my hands.
Robyn | 12.23.07 - 3:28 pm | #

Aheadofthecurve writes:
"But up in these parts, there's no such thing as day laborers hanging out on street corners... the construction industry just couldn't support them."

I had to practically beg to get a contractor just to look at a small kitchen retiling job; they are generally booked 2-3 months in advance.

Bruce- I thought Detroit, Cleveland and places like Youngstown, OH were actually down over 2004-07?
Aheadofthecurve | 12.23.07 - 3:45 pm | #

Robyn writes:
BTW - one thing the NYT article doesn't mention is that the median family income in Cape Coral is in the mid-40's. How that median family income can support median home values approaching $300k is beyond me (and - apparently - it couldn't). Where I live - the median family income is in the mid-80's. Which can support higher median home values (still - I doubt my house was ever worth $800k).

Then there are the "special cases" in Florida. Like those thousands of condos on Biscayne Blvd. in Miami. Crummy location. Condos built there during prior booms went bust - and never did recover. Condos built in better areas never went bust as badly - and have done very well over the years.
Robyn | 12.23.07 - 3:55 pm | #

Alec writes:
Because I look at the numbers for Phoenix, Denver and San Francisco and see a market that is correcting and not preparing for a plunge over the cliff.
--------------------------

Can't speak for the other 2 cities, but PHX is like this: transactions have fallen off a cliff, prices in the southern peripheries are already down 50% due to FC. The core is down 10% from the ATH, but houses only move quickly if they cut another 10%.

Condos are a bloodbath, many developments are under 50% "sold" and many of them want their deposits back. Deal volume is 60% down YoY, IIRC.
Alec | 12.23.07 - 4:37 pm | #

amused_in_sf writes:
Bruce Webb,

San Francisco is starting to correct. Bad neighborhoods aren't selling, and prices are getting reduced on new condos (which might not show up in a lot of indices since they were never sold before). Good homes in good neighborhoods are all over the map, depending on specifics.

It's easy to find examples of places that sold for the same price in 2004 and 2007, and examples that have gone up in the same period.

But it's still early. Check back in a couple of months and see how things are going.
amused_in_sf | 12.23.07 - 5:32 pm | #

ba_lurker writes:
Bruce Webb

I have to agree with you, at least as far as Silicon Valley (denial capital of the world) is concerned.

The general feeling here is that buyers will return when the Spring Selling season commences. Therefore sellers prefer to remove their listings and are waiting to re-list in March.

In general, I don't sense any panic in SV yet, likely because

- Equities (particularly tech stocks) have held up well. And the MSM is feeding stories that tech stocks are the new safe haven stocks :).

- The job market in SV is still very very tight.

- The general feeling is that SV will remain decoupled from the downturn in the US since a large %age if tech revenues come from exports.

Very lonely being a bear in Silicon Valley !
ba_lurker | 12.23.07 - 6:25 pm | #

JD writes:
Bruce,
I can not speak about other areas, but I can tell you from personal experience (I buy and sell a dozen houses a year in the metro Denver market), that real world home prices in metro Denver are down on average 3% since early 2004. But if you look at the popular indexes, metro Denver is up 5% over that time period, because there is a perpetual postive bias in the indexes of about 2%. Denver, like surprisingly many MSAs, never experienced the 2004-2006 bubble market. IMO metro Denver on average is now under valued by about 2%, and some parts of metro Denver are undervalued by 15%, with many REOs being dumped at 30% 'undervalue'. I am waiting for a clear bottom before I become a more agressive buyer in target neighborhoods.
JD | 12.24.07 - 10:39 am | #

San Diego Insider writes:
> I know I may sound like a loon here but is there any major market that is actually off over the 2004-2007 timeframe? Because I look at the numbers for Phoenix, Denver and San Francisco and see a market that is correcting and not preparing for a plunge over the cliff.

Two things here.

San Diego prices are easily back to 2004 prices in many areas.

San Diego saw close to 35% appreciation in less than 12 months from mid 2003 to mid 2004 (fwiw, the spike mirrors the drop in rates tied to indexes like the MTA, which bottomed out in May 2004). Then another 10% to the peak in 2005.

What we are seeing now are townhomes that sold for $450k in 2005 not selling for $350k today.

2008 will be the year we give back part of that 35% bump in prices. The only question is how much. My guess is a minimum of another 10%, at which point rents will start to align more closely with the monthly payments of conservative mortgage programs, assuming rates stay in the 6s.
San Diego Insider | 12.29.07 - 10:37 pm | #