MiTurn writes:
Dire!


ugh writes:
More new math?

Hasn't this Freddie twit seen the Credit Suisse reset chart out to 2011 or did its bright colors dazzle him?


Emma Anne writes:
And by "rebound", he means skidding along the bottom for a few more years (if it works like the last California bubble deflation).


linear algebra writes:
good stuff. if this is what it looks like out the rear view mirror, it suggests that what's coming at us could smash the windshield.


barely writes:
How wonderful! That means it's a great time to lend purchase or cash-out refi money out at 97% LTV! Oh wait. That's FHA's domain.


Anonymous writes:
This is good news!


s writes:
According to CNBC the fact that the brokers borrowed only 75 billion of the 200 is strongly bullish. Only problem 75 was on auction. Complete idiots


Variable writes:
Does the days on market number seem right? Its based on stats from the National Association of Realtors. How do the stats address sellers pulling houses off the market vs sold?


barely writes:
Where's Ben Stein during all this sour talk? All we need to do is close our eyes and wish this trivial momentary downturn ends and we're back in Goldilocks' world.


Ed writes:
If Atrios Eschaton merged with Calculated Risk, you could call the new blog Escalated Risk.


barely writes:
Tomorrow's the day before month end. Hedgies and MFs all rearraging the deck chairs to make the Titanic (statements) look good and presentable before they get put in the mail. Good day to sell any rally.


barely writes:
WHen's Paulson's little prized possession, GS, gonna crack?


creekside writes:
Philadelphia City Council Suspends Foreclosure Sales, Calls for a Six Month Moratorium

Housing Wire has learned that the City Council of Philadelphia passed a resolution Thursday afternoon calling for the Sheriff’s Department to immediately suspend all foreclosure sales in the county scheduled for April — essentially imposing a 30-day “pause” on any foreclosures that had been scheduled to be auctioned off during the month (foreclosure sales are held monthly).

The resolution also calls for the Sheriff to seek an additional six month moratorium through the courts, according to a private memo released by a local law firm in the Philadelphia area and obtained by HW.
http://www.housingwire.com/2008/...nth-moratorium/


VennData writes:
Lemme see 20:10. That's military time, right? Time to buy tomorrow morning.


AZ_Cowboy writes:
It's nice to see the government orifices are starting to temper expectations. Fed heads talking about delayed recovery, Fannie pointing to 2010 as a potential bottom. That's a lot of progress for one day.


SC writes:
When does actual deflation kick in? Not the wonky CPI measure, but real deflation from falling demand due to consumer credit collapse?

That's when we'll really see Ben print money (his words):

"Indeed, under a fiat (that is, paper) money system, a government (in practice, the central bank in cooperation with other agencies) should always be able to generate increased nominal spending and inflation, even when the short-term nominal interest rate is at zero."

http://www.federalreserve.gov/bo...121/ default.htm


REBear writes:
South Korean fund said to shun [US]Treasurys

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/...8506ADA3A763% 7D


SC writes:
I guess he'd getting a head start on deflation:

"A little parable may prove useful: Today an ounce of gold sells for $300, more or less. Now suppose that a modern alchemist solves his subject's oldest problem by finding a way to produce unlimited amounts of new gold at essentially no cost. Moreover, his invention is widely publicized and scientifically verified, and he announces his intention to begin massive production of gold within days. What would happen to the price of gold? Presumably, the potentially unlimited supply of cheap gold would cause the market price of gold to plummet. Indeed, if the market for gold is to any degree efficient, the price of gold would collapse immediately after the announcement of the invention, before the alchemist had produced and marketed a single ounce of yellow metal.

What has this got to do with monetary policy? Like gold, U.S. dollars have value only to the extent that they are strictly limited in supply. But the U.S. government has a technology, called a printing press (or, today, its electronic equivalent), that allows it to produce as many U.S. dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost. By increasing the number of U.S. dollars in circulation, or even by credibly threatening to do so, the U.S. government can also reduce the value of a dollar in terms of goods and services, which is equivalent to raising the prices in dollars of those goods and services. We conclude that, under a paper-money system, a determined government can always generate higher spending and hence positive inflation.

Of course, the U.S. government is not going to print money and distribute it willy-nilly (although as we will see later, there are practical policies that approximate this behavior)."

Yikes!!!


Ralph Cramdown writes:
Great presentation. Anyone else find it odd that it's entitled 'Multifamily Marketing'?


Joy writes:
Things are getting so bad in the mortgage industry, Freddie Mac has resorted to putting the children up for adoption.


dc1000 writes:
it could be worse for much longer but at the same time, 2005 was the peak and its almost half way on to 2008 already. we've gone deep into this period now.

unless you think true catastrophe is upon us, then at worst we have mediocrity from here on out and perhaps an improvement.


with respect to what periwinkle said earlier, commercial actors in todays market know the situation. everyone has tightened up incredibly.

if cancellation rates have dropped that means that most likely both standards have risen and people have gotten more selective. it only indicates that those who have decided to put a contract on a house have actually closed. which is a good sign.

i'm no perma bull and for sure i see how bad things are and for me its not even that bad. but for real. somewhere soon the end has to be.

its closer today than ever! ;)


Joy writes:
Link missing from the above comment.


dc1000 writes:
something struck me the other night.

if the dollar is collapsing and commodities are increasing in price, is there an argument that real estate should increase as well?

if we're talking about a complete debasement of the currency and we're all left trading our wives engagement rings for legal fees and gasoline, shouldnt real estate have as much or more innate value as gold?

considering the dollar to be "fiat" and all that entails, aren't Gold and Real Estate in the same family to some degree?


homedad43 writes:
OT but...with the dollar now taking so much more to meet the Euro (close to $1.60/euro), at what point will the ECB pull the string and cut rates?

Has the ECB set a target at which it acts?


Anonymous writes:
Re: Fed's Lockhart: "Recovery may be delayed"

Does that mean the 2010 model is now delayed until 2012?


Anonymous writes:
Japan's consumer prices rose at the fastest pace in a decade and the unemployment rate increased for the first time in five months, putting pressure on households already strapped by falling wages.

Core prices, which exclude fruit, fish and vegetables, climbed 1 percent in February from a year earlier, the statistics bureau said today in Tokyo. The jobless rate unexpectedly climbed to 3.9 percent, the first increase since September, and job vacancies slid to a two-year low.


barely writes:
And from Barron's - "Don't Count on a Second-Half Comeback"

Looks like the second half recovery that wasn't might be delayed until the third half.

http://online.barrons.com/ articl...most_viewed_day


Ralph Cramdown writes:
dc1000: Normally in a flight-to-quality scenario, real estate would be considered quality. But since it's the cause of things this time and dropping, not so much.

What's keeping commodities high is that other nations (oil) and their citizens (gold) still need them. But the value of Philly real estate to a guy in Mumbai is about zero.

One thing that's surprised me about the current bust is Miami. I thought, as the gateway from Latin America and a place with geographic constraints (i.e. a downtown and a beach, rather than 360 degree sprawl possibilities), values would hold up, especially with improving economies in Latin America. Shows what I know.


homedad43 writes:
dc:

I follow your thinking and recall it to that effect in the late 1970s but...the stock of housing, as I recollect, was nowhere as overblown as today.

And housesales plummeted once folks saw how Volcker was really serious about inflation; the Fed dicked around for awhile and folks did buy until the rates wiped hope of financing out. The old "payback with depreciated dollars..."


waitinginPNW writes:
SC- Is that an exerpt from Bernanke's famous "helicopter" speech of a few years back?

Give credit where credit's due- especially in a case like this!


Anonymous writes:
Fed May Gain Influence From Crisis at SEC's Expense (Update1)

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/ne...E& refer=economy

Former regulators predict the changes will see the Fed accrue influence at the expense of the SEC, which was created by President Franklin Roosevelt to make rules for dealers and stock exchanges. The Fed is taking almost $30 billion in assets off Bear Stearns's balance sheet to encourage JPMorgan Chase & Co. to buy the firm, even though Bear's main supervisor is the SEC.

``This is tectonic,'' said Ralph Ferrara, a former general counsel at the SEC, and now a partner at Dewey & LeBoeuf LLP in Washington. ``We no longer want to have a balkanized response to a national crisis.''

In 2006, New York Fed President Timothy Geithner, saw the need to ``revisit'' the Fed's authority. In a panel discussion on Sept. 26 of that year, he said the Fed supervised a ``diminished'' portion of the system as securities firms and hedge funds grew in influence. Paulson is finishing his own review.

`View of Potomac'

The SEC will be so diminished that it ``will be given a nice view of the Potomac from whatever floor of the comprehensive financial services regulator they are given,'' said Ferrara.

Geithner has already redrawn the lines, invoking a little- used authority to push the Fed into the role of an orderly bank liquidator, much like the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., by helping finance and sell $30 billion of illiquid Bear Stearns securities.


waitinginPNW writes:
homedad-

ECB is serious about it's anti-inflation mandate.

I think the US gave the airplane contract to them as a kind of bribe. We trash the dollar which makes our exports cheaper , the Europeans get upset (rightfully, IMO), so we give them a bit of US turf in exchange.

Anyway, that's my opinion right now.


FFDIC writes:
They need to move that smart boy Frank Nothaft over at Freddie to the Fed pronto.


Suecris writes:
Does anyone have an idea about why Japan's Nikkei went vertical after their lunch break? Nikkei Net Interactive is still just showing headlines about high inflation and higher unemployment, Bloomberg and Reuters haven't yet offered an explanation. It's strange.


SweetHomeKilla writes:
From the article-

"By late this year or early next year, life should be returning to the national housing market, but prices won't see significant recovery until 2010, Nothaft said."

What a joke. If you look at this graph, You'll see that it took about 18 months for the price declines to reach this decline rate. The price declines are not going to stop in the next 12-14 months, just as the second round of layouts take their full effect.

All this guy is doing is pointing out what is extremely obvious to anyone paying attention, that the declines are not going to stop this year.


Octavio Richetta writes:
Vertical Nikkei. Something brewing in the US for tomorrow?


Peconic Bay writes:
The non sub-prime components seem to be performing reasonably well. This crisis may not be as bad as I thought. If the prime segment holds, we may be through this by this time next year.

Not as bearish as I would have suspected.


FT Woods writes:
Big downside: housing is not a portable asset.


Tom Stone writes:
I am on the fringe of the SF bay Area in west Sonoma county,and the price drops have been substantial,but nowhere near enough to make economic sense.A neighbor just listed his place for $698,500,and it would rent for a little less than $2k a month.median income for this area is $75k.Location is again vital,as is correct initial pricing.I know and respect the broker so i think he got the price right for the area in today's market...BUT I expect the Alt-A resets to restore economic reality within 2-3 years.This is a freaking $300k house at most!Google Vulture Vista Way,95472 for a look at the area.


Suecris writes:
cnbc says (about the Nikkei):

Tokyo's Nikkei 225 Average jumped 1 percent, erasing small losses made earlier, as a rise in Asian shares encourages investors to pick up Japanese stocks. Speculation that window-dressing would set in before the business year-end on Monday also boosted the Nikkei.

The window-dressing part makes sense, but the shares rise because a rise in shares encourages investors? Whaa???


Real Vapid Bimbos of OC writes:
I think the operative words are "until at least".


Peconic Bay writes:
The one thing I forgot in my previous comment is that there is an avalanche of payment-option ARM resets in the next two years. These are Alt-A loans that I believe will perform poorly, as they are mostly in a negative equity position. So there is still a lot of pain to come.


rich writes:
A lot of people worldwide are saying Bernanke and the Fed are creating chaos by fueling global commodity inflation that creates vast dislocations, especially in poor countries. They blame the Fed for focusing more on Wall Street impact than the world and all its people. Global resentment against the Fed is growing.

Watch Argentina. There is a bitter two-week farmers strike brewing and the government is using troops to move milk and grain into the domestic market. Farmers want to send products overseas and earn high prices. The government wants to tax food exports so high that food will be distributed to the country's starving poor.

I didn't know Argentina had that many starving poor, but apparently it's getting that way. Argentina is one the world's largest producers of soybean, corn, wheat and beef. Taking Argentina exports off the global market will raise prices even more.


Mark in SF writes:
One thing that's surprised me about the current bust is Miami. I thought, as the gateway from Latin America and a place with geographic constraints (i.e. a downtown and a beach, rather than 360 degree sprawl possibilities), values would hold up, especially with improving economies in Latin America. Shows what I know.

It is a myth that RE is 'just supply and demand'. Well, it is sort of, but as have seen in the last several years the housing demand is extremely dependent on credit supply, since people don' generally buy houses with money.

dc1000, commodities prices going up has very little to do with the dollar or US monetary policy. I guarantee that the Germans are not explaining the high price of oil, gold, & wheat in terms of the $.

BTW, contrary to popular opinion, the currency is *not* being debased (at a higher than normal rate anyway). That may be in the cards at some point in the future, but that day is not here yet. All this "money printing" has been nothing of the kind. It's all repurchase agreements and swap arrangements.


anon writes:
yes! great time to be a renter!

let's hope they don't ruin my happiness with a homeowner's bailout. otherwise i'll have to spend time and energy looking for ways to stop paying taxes.


eric in vegas writes:
By the end of the year they will have revised their prediction to 2013.


Mark in SF writes:

let's hope they don't ruin my happiness with a homeowner's bailout. otherwise i'll have to spend time and energy looking for ways to stop paying taxes.


yep. Everytime I hear we have to 'keep people in their houses' I want to scream. Since when is something you paid close to $0 for 'yours'?


anon writes:
exactly Mark!

let's just explain to these poor guys that they've been renting from the banks instead of "owning" as they thought. that will do.


Anonymous writes:
On the charts for subprime:

30-Yr ARM Balloon w/ 40-50 Yr Amtz

What the hell is this type of loan?


REBear writes:
Maybe we can sell Freddie minus all the bad loans to Jamie for a buck and something.


joe banks writes:
Harry Dent has released a new economic analysis for the near term. He is predicting a short term bull market rally into this Fall. This will be followed by the Next Great Depression which will last from 2009-10 till 2020-24. With housing really starting down in 2010 and possibly dropping 60-70% in some markets by 2015. It can be found at H S Dent foundation for those who are interested.


Jeff's Moped writes:
Tanta, CR -

Sorry to veer off topic - Any way we can get your thoughts on that stench emanating from the Philly city council tonight?

Check this stinker out: http://www.housingwire.com/2008/...nth-moratorium/

I'd comment, but I just threw up in my mouth.


anon writes:
something i would like to see is fraud on mortgage applications (inflating income on the Alt-As for ex) being prosecuted.

black guys had been sent to jail for much less than clear fraud to lenders, investors here and abroad and sadly enough, ultimately to taxpayers. being white middle class shouldn't be an excuse to get out of the hook.

why not making sure that the next time they ask for credit, the future lender knows they had committed fraud before?


ShortCourage writes:
Has anybody commented on this from Bloomberg? Do we have any idea what percent of ARMs will actually escape rate increases when they reset (due to the lower LIBOR)?

Fed Actions Defuse Subprime ARM Rate Reset Bomb (Commentary by John Berry)

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/ ne...id=ajRTMlVVsvVY


anon writes:
i might be very wrong here, but dont' ARM adjust periodically? if so, it would be just buying time if inflation goes up forcing the FED to increase rates.


waitinginPNW writes:
I was under the impression that people's ARMs don't adjust "all at once". And also, that LIBOR is constantly changing.

If that's the case (and I believe it is!), then what is this guy saying?: that the handful of people whose ARMs adjust on X day at X moment when /if LIBOR is at a lower rate, *those* people will be fine???!!!

Looks like an article for Tanta.

Something tells me this guy (and Bloomberg too) are scraping the bottom of the barrel for a "hopeful housing story".


Napolean writes:
ShortCourage, who will refi these borrowers now that their house is worth less than what is owed? They seem kind of stuck in that ARM, if they decide not to walk away from the house.

Thus it is a good thing inflation is contained and the dollar strong, else we might have to raise rates and be right back into the "subprime mess."


ShortCourage writes:
Re: the ARM resets...I think the point of the Bloomber article by Berry is that the current outlook (assuming LIBOR rates remain low along with the Fed's rates) is that some/many of the dreaded foreclosures from ARM resets might be avoided.

I have no idea if it's true, and how much of the pool of ARMs are even indexed against LIBOR, but Tanta has touched on that before. Maybe she can give this article her special treatment...


Thinx writes:
Isn't there a very simple explanation for the fall in cancellations of new home contracts?

We are already two to three years into the sales downturn - significantly fewer people entered into new home contracts in the last 12-18 months. Since fewer contracts were written, there are fewer cancellations.

Why is this being spun as "good news" that we are at some kind of a bottom? It is just mathematically inevitable.


ozajh writes:
dc1000,

If the dollar is collapsing and commodities are increasing in price, is there an argument that Real Estate should increase as well?

As long as WAGES also go up, yes.


DaveJ writes:
Wait. Home builders already bottomed.


BrantW writes:
"Rebound" = Prices flat for 5 years.

I have been telling people that they will be able to buy anytime between 2010 and 2015....and it wont make a difference.


Nick writes:
This podcast from NABE is quite a good take on the short-term of the housing market and the long-term (i.e., demographics). Surprisingly sober, very matter-of-factual and the economist (who I believe was at FN or FH before joining PMI) says 1H 2010 is most likely timing for a rebound. The long-term view is by a professor who studies demographics.

http://www.nabe.com/podcasts/index.html

Whither Goes Housing

Date: February 22, 2008
Speakers: David Berson, Senior Vice President, Chief Economist and Strategist, The PMI Group, Inc.
Dowell Myers, Professor and Director, Population Dynamics Research Group, University of Southern California


pd130 writes:
That "low LIBOR will defuse reset crisis" thing has been drifting around for a couple of weeks now. Has yet it been echoed by any of the analysts who got the "wave of reset phenomenon" right? I just checked around and indeed, the 3- and 6-mo rates that were frequent reset benchmarks are about 50 percent off their highs for the year, but I haven't dug up a graph or data series yet; is it reasonable to assume that they will stay roughly where they are for the few years that the Alt-As and everything are going to play out?

Anyway, I was under the impression that many of the loans that were expected to default after reset have already defaulted during their teaser period, which suggests that there's much more wrong with these vintages than the temporary interest rate environment.

And of course, no amount of interest rate adjustment is going to make many houses suddenly not be underwater, which one way or another is going to be a significant default factor on its own.


pd130 writes:
Here's a set of LIBOR ARM index series going back to 2000, created by HSH. Looks like the Fannie Mae series no longer exists, naturally. For 07 and 08 go up a level.

Maybe we're just lucky ducks that UK is also going through a housing bust now, eh?


16@653 writes:
anon writes: let's hope they don't ruin my happiness with a homeowner's bailout. otherwise i'll have to spend time and energy looking for ways to stop paying taxes.

I'm with you. As a single taxpayer, I don't mind supporting the general good in terms of education, health care for children and families, etc., but "keeping people in their homes" which they can't afford and never could afford, is another kettle of fish entirely.

They wanted to live in a palace NOW in order to keep up with the Jones' and I'm sorry it didn't work out, but it's time for them to take their lumps.

Welcome back to reality.


wally writes:
There's that word 'recover' again, proving that here is another 'expert' who doesn't understand what is happening.
The bubble is ending. Prices are not going to 'recover' to unsustainable levels. It will not happen. This is not a price trough, this is not a temporary low. This is not a soft patch.
Prices are going down to normal. If they do not, there cannot be a healthy long-term housing market in the US.


Pondering the Mess writes:
Bingo - somebody else nailed it before. Without HUGE wage increases, the current housing prices are way too high. Since there will not be any wage increases of any real size, housing prices come down.


SteelCurtain writes:
To be fair I don't think he means recover in the sense of prices starting back up. He also said

""I don't think we're going to see any improvement in the national house-price matrix until 2010,""

so that looks to me like he just expects prices to stop declining. That should be about right if this is a normal housing bust ie ~10 yr. top to bottom.

If we get GD II then all bets are off.


ron writes:
i'm no perma bull and for sure i see how bad things are and for me its not even that bad. but for real. somewhere soon the end has to be.

its closer today than ever! ;)

The recession is just now starting so we can see the impact of lower economic activity on the housing market, the traditional kick in the groin to the SFH market. Up to now the slow down has been credit driven which hasn't gone away but the big impact will be the economic grind down. Hold on tight DC!


JD writes:
I have a technical MBS investment question for someone familiar with MBS investment: It seems to me, given that there is an enourmous spread between the 10 year treasury and Fannie/freddie MBS yields that this would be a good time to purchase new issue MBS. My question is: How do I insure that the MBS that I purchase are recent issue and not the older crap that is of questional quality. I my thought process is that all the recent stuff has been much better vetted and that there is much less market risk on the new issue stuff.

Please note: I am really not interested in anyone's opinion about the market direct or housing prices in general, this is just a technical question regarding MBS investment.


Wicked Lad writes:
I'm an utter amateur at this, just an IT person at a mortgage company, but is anyone impressed with the GSEs' record as market forecasters?


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