butter writes:
nasty
butter | 10.25.08 - 4:23 pm | #

Interesting Times writes:
Speechless.
Interesting Times | 10.25.08 - 4:23 pm | #

ReductiMat writes:
That must be a record of some sort.
ReductiMat | 10.25.08 - 4:23 pm | #

lawyerliz writes:
Some threadster said that this wasn't quite true when you counted cancellations or something; I didn't quite understand what they meant. That it was down a mere 50-60%. Hope that person appears and explains.
lawyerliz | 10.25.08 - 4:26 pm | #

tranches of leinenkugel writes:
Coming to a Mack, Peterbilt, etc factory near you. Wish it weren't so...
tranches of leinenkugel | Homepage | 10.25.08 - 4:26 pm | #

Mel writes:
Is this a Ford accomplishment?
Mel | 10.25.08 - 4:29 pm | #

Persecuted Comrade Anonymouse writes:
That's nothing. Demand for solid gold statues of Kate Moss have plunged 100%.
Persecuted Comrade Anonymouse | Homepage | 10.25.08 - 4:30 pm | #

lawyerliz writes:
Our car makers were merely off 25-30%-ish.

I think we are going to be better off than the rest of the world, altho certainly not good.
lawyerliz | 10.25.08 - 4:31 pm | #

Blackhalo writes:
Brutal sign of things to come.
Blackhalo | 10.25.08 - 4:31 pm | #

Peter Bilt writes:
Hey, 115 trucks aint that bad.
Peter Bilt | 10.25.08 - 4:31 pm | #

John S writes:
This is not unheard of for Volvo's domestic auto market. In their socialist society where government income taxes approach 80%, there's little disposable income in good times. Add a recession and NO ONE buys an automobile. During the 1991 recession Volvo's domestic sales fell almost 100%.
John S | 10.25.08 - 4:33 pm | #

no. 4478359641 writes:
I wonder how much of the decline in sales is due to the credit crunch, and how much is due to antcipated slowdown.
no. 4478359641 | 10.25.08 - 4:33 pm | #

Matt writes:
Volvo doesn't own Scania. Volkswagen has a 68.6% share of the vote in Scania.
Matt | 10.25.08 - 4:35 pm | #

Fair Economist writes:
John S, this is continent-wide. Sweden was never more than partially socialist and they have pretty much backed down to the mixed-market model common everywhere in the developed world except the US>

lawyerliz - I saw the reference to cancellations, and I assume it means that they have many advance orders. So in Q3 they sold perhaps 15,100 trucks (I don't know the numbers) but 15,000 orders for Q4 and beyond were canceled. Volvo's reporting the net.

I don't know if this is the case but IMO it seems more plausible than a total cessation of sales.
Fair Economist | Homepage | 10.25.08 - 4:38 pm | #

leftys liquors&lubricants writes:
I always liked that name Peterbilt.That's all I have
leftys liquors&lubricants | 10.25.08 - 4:39 pm | #

Hanging by a thread writes:
My son is in charge of operations for a mid size trucking company in the west. He had to lay off 20% of work force this week and if things don't pick up, more to come. The use Volvo long haul units and are not buying anything for this year. This is just beginning to hit home.
Hanging by a thread | Homepage | 10.25.08 - 4:40 pm | #

Broker writes:
Partially socialist = Almost virgin??
Broker | 10.25.08 - 4:41 pm | #

Nanook writes:
Optimus Prime got cancelled?

Seriously, if this what is coming to America then it really is going to be GD2.
Nanook | 10.25.08 - 4:41 pm | #

REBear writes:
I wonder what those 115 are thinking right now.
REBear | 10.25.08 - 4:42 pm | #

Owner Earnings writes:
The rest of the article DOES matter. Volvo cut the numbers when realigning their internal books for global heavy truck orders. Once the books were cleaned it was still shocking to see heavy truck orders, in total, down 55%... but not the ridiculous amount on the chart or the amount Bloomberg's claiming.


Per http://econompicdata.blogspot.com/
Owner Earnings | Homepage | 10.25.08 - 4:44 pm | #

Wu-Tang Financial writes:
"I wonder what those 115 are thinking right now."


I'm a truck?



How is a 99% drop even possible? It seems like even if a truck INSTANTLY KILLED everyone who got inside that sales wouldn't fall that much.
Wu-Tang Financial | 10.25.08 - 4:49 pm | #

Stagflationary Mark writes:
REBear,

I wonder what those 115 are thinking right now.

Unfortunately, it was me. Yeah, I bought them all. It was a stupid thing to do using hindsight. I figured with cheaper fuel on the way, how could I possibly lose? To my credit though, I didn't pay full price. There was a sale.

BUY 15 GET 100 FREE!

The heckling never ends. This article has managed to pull me back in yet again. 99.7% drops tend to do that!
Stagflationary Mark | Homepage | 10.25.08 - 4:50 pm | #

Gone Fishin' writes:
Finance company GMAC has told some General Motors Corp (GM.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) dealers they will have to begin paying off older inventory, a step a major dealer group is protesting as an unfair tightening of credit that could prompt dealer bankruptcies.

http://www.reuters.com/article/ m...133085520081022

GM is changing the rules for only some of their dealerships? Wonder what the criteria was?
Gone Fishin' | 10.25.08 - 4:51 pm | #

Blackhalo writes:
@Broker

"Partially socialist = Almost virgin??"

Mmm, the USA is now the largest insurer and banker in the world. Those used to be private industries. Pretty soon we may be the largest homeowner too, once we get done unwinding all the CDS.

Toll Road vs. Interstate? Public Utilites.

I am not aware of any non-socialist countries. Well maybe Somallia.
Blackhalo | 10.25.08 - 4:53 pm | #

trader walt writes:
From the Financial Times of London:
A different perspective on the stock market collapse. (it's video)

http://www.ft.com/cms/bfba2c48-5...77& fromSearch=n
trader walt | 10.25.08 - 4:56 pm | #

Broker writes:
Fair Economist, is that the reason why the "developed world" is doing so great? You seem to be an expert on this subject, so why don't you enlight us? All I remember is that in the 80's when Sweden was experimenting with socialism, the Swedes were drinking themself to death in Leningrad (now St.Petersburg) while cursing their gov.
Broker | 10.25.08 - 4:57 pm | #

Gone Fishin' writes:
"The overall economic situation has worsened in a way we have not anticipated," said Andreas Renschler, who sits on Daimler AG's management board and runs its truck division. "The situation has turned from an American real-estate accident into a global financial pileup. We're not affected directly. Still, we don't operate in a vacuum."

http://www.oregonlive.com/ busine...ightline_1.html

900 jobs gone from Portland. Seems like they were a little affected.
Gone Fishin' | 10.25.08 - 4:57 pm | #

alarmist writes:
Hey Stagflationary Mark. Hang on to those trucks. In a couple of years they'll be colectable! lol
alarmist | Homepage | 10.25.08 - 4:58 pm | #

leFou writes:
lawyerliz.

They actually had about 20 000 new orders in the quarter but also 20 000 cancellations to orders from prev'ious orders so its a net increase of 115 trucks.

John S.
Agreed, we pay to much taxes in Sweden but it's actually about twise that of US, but then again we don't pay for healtcare or schools and get a years parental leave with almost full pay per kid and a lot of other perks.
leFou | 10.25.08 - 5:00 pm | #

Hazard writes:
If you're thinking about buying a new car (or truck) next year might be the time.
Hazard | 10.25.08 - 5:01 pm | #

leFou writes:
Fair Economist.
Missed the previous answer.

Everybody else.
To much beer to type proper.
leFou | 10.25.08 - 5:04 pm | #

Stagflationary Mark writes:
alarmist,

Hey Stagflationary Mark. Hang on to those trucks. In a couple of years they'll be colectable! lol

I'm actually quite optimistic.

50 trucks are filled with paper currency.
50 trucks are filled with toilet paper.
15 trucks are filled with timeless musical treasures from 1978.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9...h? v=9PvE2cpUkx8

I'm prepared for any environment. May the best safe store of value win, lol.
Stagflationary Mark | Homepage | 10.25.08 - 5:04 pm | #

Diogenes writes:
Broker wrote:
Fair Economist, is that the reason why the "developed world" is doing so great? You seem to be an expert on this subject, so why don't you enlight us? All I remember is that in the 80's when Sweden was experimenting with socialism, the Swedes were drinking themself to death in Leningrad (now St.Petersburg) while cursing their gov.

Now they and the Finns drink themselves to death at home. They pretend to pay us and we pretend to work.
Diogenes | 10.25.08 - 5:05 pm | #

Comrade-Dope jg (jg) writes:
Maybe they would sell more trucks if they quit calling them 'lorries.'

Probably painted pink, too.
Comrade-Dope jg (jg) | 10.25.08 - 5:09 pm | #

fresno dan writes:
Its boxy, but it doesn't sell
fresno dan | 10.25.08 - 5:10 pm | #

leFou writes:
Comrade-Dope jg (jg).
We call them lastbilar.
leFou | 10.25.08 - 5:13 pm | #

Broker writes:
'The economic miracle that has been the USA was not produced by socialized enterprises, by gov.-union- cartels or by centralized economic planing. It was produced by private enterprises in a profit-and-loss system..."
Milton Friedman
P.S. Is it still legal in this country to read Milton Friedman? Probably not, if you listen to Paul Crugman.
Broker | 10.25.08 - 5:13 pm | #

Unit472 writes:
How does any transport related business operate in this environment?

Chrysler was offering $2.99/gallon gas
cards to boost sales this summer. Now that incentive is worthless.

I read that one airline, seeking to emulate Southwest, hedged its fuel costs. Ooops they hedged at $100+ per barrel.

Truckers were protesting high diesel
prices in June. Many operators sold their rigs rather than run them at a loss. Now diesel is cheap again and those who bought the distressed rigs at firesale prices are in hog heaven.
Unit472 | 10.25.08 - 5:15 pm | #

Speed writes:
Got to love this, from Volvo:

"The company said demand for heavy trucks, a leading indicator of the general economic climate, had slowed far faster than expected because of the deepening impact of the global crisis."

My car, after hitting a brick wall, slowed faster than expected.

"Volvo said it now expected growth of the European market for heavy trucks this year to be zero to 5 percent from the level last year. In the second quarter it had forecast the market would grow by 10 percent this year."
Ref Link
Speed | Homepage | 10.25.08 - 5:16 pm | #

Comrade-Dope jg (jg) writes:
Good; 'lastbilar' is more manly than lorrie.

Crying shame that #1 UT vs. #6 OSU is not on TV here in San Diego.

I want my circuses!
Comrade-Dope jg (jg) | 10.25.08 - 5:16 pm | #

DK writes:
Is that even possible? Holy smokes.
DK | 10.25.08 - 5:17 pm | #

Republicans are TRAITORS writes:
This is outrageous. We cannot stand for this.

Henry, Ben can you please come up with a long haul trucker stimulus package? We can call it Americans who support the global long haul trucking industry or AWSTGLHTI for short.
Republicans are TRAITORS | 10.25.08 - 5:18 pm | #

serf hopeinsd writes:
Gone Fishin'- great article. The perverted three way love triangle between GM-GMAC-Chrysler is nearing an explosion of some sort. I don't foresee it ending in a loving embrace, unless the government steps in with our money.

And even if GM is "saved" via tax dollars, what are they going to do when GMAC's problems have caused all their dealers and buyers to go elsewhere?
serf hopeinsd | 10.25.08 - 5:18 pm | #

Cynical Yes writes:
Evrybody is stocking up on Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms. This suckers going down. No need for trucks, just guns, bullets, booze and grits!
Cynical Yes | 10.25.08 - 5:23 pm | #

Unit472 writes:
I saw Mad Max and trucks were very important. You can armor plate them and run over gasoline thieves.

My Nissan Titan is looking entirely too small these days. Does Peterbilt make a six wheel drive, Kevlar cab model with extended range fuel tanks?
Unit472 | 10.25.08 - 5:27 pm | #

mb writes:
There was widespread advance buying of new trucks in NA last fall to get them before engine standards changed. thats why 1Q sales were very low as well.
mb | 10.25.08 - 5:29 pm | #

Broward Horne writes:
Stagflationary Mark

50 trucks are filled with paper currency.
50 trucks are filled with toilet paper

Why did you double-order?
Broward Horne | Homepage | 10.25.08 - 5:29 pm | #

alarmist writes:
Wow Stagflationary Mark. You got Barry Manilow in one of those trucks too? In years to come your decendants wll thank you.
alarmist | Homepage | 10.25.08 - 5:30 pm | #

Broker writes:
Cynical Yes, to cite Mogambo Guru: "Grits is not groceries". Other than that I agree with you 100%.
Broker | 10.25.08 - 5:31 pm | #

Speed writes:
On the plus side, when you're laid off in Sweden, you won't end up with a cardboard sign at the freeway offramp.
Speed | Homepage | 10.25.08 - 5:32 pm | #

mmckinl writes:
Broker writes:
'The economic miracle that has been the USA was not produced by socialized enterprises, by gov.-union- cartels or by centralized economic planing. It was produced by private enterprises in a profit-and-loss system..."

~~~~~~~

And mile high tariffs imposed by government ...
mmckinl | 10.25.08 - 5:34 pm | #

Unit472 writes:
No, when you're poor in Sweden you end up in a housing project in Malmo full of Muslim 'asylum seekers' who want to kill you.
Unit472 | 10.25.08 - 5:34 pm | #

Sports Guy LaFleur writes:
Great recall, Unit 472.

I totally forgot about that $2.99 gas guarantee for Chrysler automotive.

Right now, in the Twin cities, I just filled up for $2.19 per gallon, with a $2.36 city average.

In retrospect, that should have been an obvious indicator of gas prices. When one of the big three predicts high gas prices, it's gonna drop. When have their predictions ever been right?
Sports Guy LaFleur | 10.25.08 - 5:35 pm | #

Speed writes:
BTW Dow futures down -513pts. Monday, Monday...
Speed | Homepage | 10.25.08 - 5:36 pm | #

Unit472 writes:
Hmmm, how about a gas station owner offering $2.75 per gallon to owners of Chrysler gas cards and then using them to sell $2.99 gas to his customers?
Unit472 | 10.25.08 - 5:41 pm | #

alarmist writes:
Hey, just as an aside frm the general Volvo hilarity (Whos ever said the Swedes don't have a sense od humour?)

I have a question re the market girations on Friday. As you all remember the European markets were down 8 - 10% before the US was awake and then the US S&P futures were limit down at one point before the US markets opened. Well part of the reason for that (in Europe anyway) was a rumour floating around that GM and posibly Ford were going to file for chapter 11. Now I read that on the FT Alphaview markets live report on Friday morning (the chat starts at 11:00am London time). The guys reported that tidbit as a piece of unconfirmed gossip which was doing the rounds and has subsequently led to nothing but it partly explains the European panic. Has anyone else heard of anything pending in this regard?
alarmist | Homepage | 10.25.08 - 5:41 pm | #

lawyerliz writes:
God, the dow futures thing will never die.

We are still paying 2.65 here in Brevard. It will be interesting to see if the speed goes back up on I-95. I think it's down about 3-4 mph. Average speed, still over the speed limit.
lawyerliz | 10.25.08 - 5:41 pm | #

MrM writes:
Dow futures are closed today, so don't worry yet - that's an old number

Here is an interesting quote from Bberg: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/ne...ybmQ& refer=news
"U.S. and European leaders have sparred over the causes of the credit crunch and how to cure it. Brown has pushed for placing the world's top 30 banks under the supervision of a panel of regulators. Sarkozy has called for much stricter government supervision of financial markets and their participants."

I wonder if the EU-Asia summit will result in an ultimatum to the US to put Citi, BofA, JPM, MS and - horror of horrors! - GS under international supervision ?

Asia has most of the world's resources (financial and productive), the EU has shown best leadership in this crisis. How can the US respond, short of flexing the military muscle?
MrM | 10.25.08 - 5:43 pm | #

Milton Friedmaniac writes:
"'The economic miracle that has been the USA was not produced by socialized enterprises, by gov.-union- cartels or by centralized economic planing. It was produced by private enterprises in a profit-and-loss system..."
Milton Friedman
P.S. Is it still legal in this country to read Milton Friedman? Probably not, if you listen to Paul Crugman."

I'm with you, Broker! That whole post WWII so-called "prosperity" happened despite all that new-fangled regulatin' & such. Anti-Socialism built this Great Nation! My gran-pappy din't need no socialism, ma own pappy din't need no socialism t'neither! An' I sure as shootin' don't need no socialism now. Anti-socialism now, anti-socialism tomorrow, anti-socialism forever!
Milton Friedmaniac | 10.25.08 - 5:43 pm | #

JP writes:
Has anyone else heard of anything pending in this regard?

Totally different view here. Japan dropped 10% because Sony laid an egg. It then became abundantly clear to even the most hard-headed optimists that there is a global recession, and it is not small.

Ford etc not even on the radar screen.
JP | Homepage | 10.25.08 - 5:43 pm | #

zoo writes:
'The economic miracle that has been the USA was not produced by socialized enterprises, by gov.-union- cartels or by centralized economic planing. It was produced by private enterprises in a profit-and-loss system..."
Milton Friedman

wow, if you substitute "disaster" for "miracle" it still makes sense!
zoo | 10.25.08 - 5:44 pm | #

Volker the Viking writes:
Speed writes:
BTW Dow futures down -513pts. Monday, Monday...

## who knows, now that the PPT is on Red Alert... Could be, maybe not. Any way you cut it, a trend is a trend until it is not.
Volker the Viking | 10.25.08 - 5:44 pm | #

Fair Economist writes:
Swedes "drinking themselves to death?"

Life Expectancies:

Sweden 80.6
US 78.1

Hmm.

Oh, and Broker, if you want to convince people, you need facts, not quotes from a biased economist.
Fair Economist | Homepage | 10.25.08 - 5:44 pm | #

mmckinl writes:
An' I sure as shootin' don't need no socialism now. Anti-socialism now, anti-socialism tomorrow, anti-socialism forever!
Milton Friedmaniac

~~~~~~~~~

Does that include socialism for the rich ?
mmckinl | 10.25.08 - 5:44 pm | #

JP writes:
I wonder if the EU-Asia summit will result in an ultimatum to the US to put Citi, BofA, JPM, MS and - horror of horrors! - GS under international supervision ?

They will be massively restructured in the next 4 years. Without Hank at the helm, their shareholders should prepare for the mother of all haircuts.
JP | Homepage | 10.25.08 - 5:45 pm | #

lawyerliz writes:
2 more years of happy drinking!!
lawyerliz | 10.25.08 - 5:45 pm | #

Paul writes:
Car and truck manufacturers used to be able to count on planned obsolescence to drive sales. You remember - never buy a car assembled on Friday or Monday.

Now that the auto companies have to compete on quality, folks don't mind keeping cars for many years.

The credit crunch has made truck and car purchases discretionary. Why buy a new one when the one you have is working just fine?

Bring back the drunk UAW workers and all will be well.
Paul | 10.25.08 - 5:46 pm | #

lawyerliz writes:
Very funny, zoo.

The reasons that the media give for price moves is usually meaningless, and always has been.

Well, if the dow goes to a 6 handle, I guess I will buy in. Then I will refuse to look at any news for years, to keep my sanity.
lawyerliz | 10.25.08 - 5:47 pm | #

Milton Friedmaniac writes:
"Does that include socialism for the rich ?"

No! That's called "free market economic policies." Get yer terms straight.
Milton Friedmaniac | 10.25.08 - 5:48 pm | #

MrM writes:
lawyerliz - what makes Dow 6000s special, as opposed to Dow in 7000s or in 5000s? Honestly curious ...
MrM | 10.25.08 - 5:49 pm | #

BondsOfSteel writes:
GM has had too many dealers for years. Toyota has far fewer and does just fine.

A GM/Chrysler merger just means yet more dealerships that will eventally need to close.

When GM closed Oldsmobile, their dealers got special tax breaks. I'm sure this is a precident for what's to come.
BondsOfSteel | 10.25.08 - 5:50 pm | #

Barakuda writes:
I am a truck driver and the trucking industry is going through MAJOR shifts...fuel ran a lot of independants out of business,major companies are faltering,(jevic trans.priority trans.cw johnson...etc thousands of drivers loosing there jobs when these companies close and much like other industries there are too many drivers and not enough companies to work for...just a year ago there was plenty of frieght to go around and just 2 years ago we were short 100,000 drivers.I live about 5 miles from 2 truck stops and they are full of trucks just sitting,and the drivers are bitching about not making any money just sitting. I have been driving 15 years and I have never seen the industry nosedive like this...too many trucks and drivers on the road,and no freight to haul....its gonna be a long cold winter for this industry
Barakuda | 10.25.08 - 5:51 pm | #

Gone Fishin' writes:
One possible historical description of America's economy for this year and the next two might be: "The greatest consolidation and monopoly formation of business in history."

The strong will eat the weak. The well financed(taxpayer handouts) and politically connected will spend the next few years ensuring prosperity for another 80 years, for themselves.

I think the wealthy elite have decided it is no longer feasible to dangle the American Dream carrot to the masses. Wonder how that is going to work out? Many people overextended in the credit orgy but many did not. I think the hard times we will face as a nation will be exacerbated by the anger amongst ourselves. How easy it will be to assume that the homeless and hungry did it to themselves. Why should I help? Why should I pay more in taxes? Why should I bailout the defaulted homeowner? Look for this anger to have some very real behavioral impact in how we weather the coming downturn.

If you haven't given to a foodbank in a while or made a donation to a local charity, ask yourself why? Just economics or is there some blame assessment going on? I can't hold the banks or the government accountable but I can blame the fool who took on more debt. This might be the slippery slope leading to stricter credit default standards for the consumer. I have a preminition that when all the unsecured debt starts defaulting with the increased unemployment that the banks will start pushing those buttons in congress. The public outcry will be muted if the blame is directed away from the politicians and back towards the citizenry.

The discussion regarding the possible mandatory 401k contributions being discussed in congress started this train of thought. The banks are black holes that will require additional capital. Add in all the other FIRE companies lining up and pretty soon the consumer will be held responsible. The banks have amply illustrated their control over congress. A new president and no major elections for a couple years and you have the stage set for some very unfriendly debtor laws being passed. Or maybe not.
Gone Fishin' | 10.25.08 - 5:51 pm | #

Speed writes:
I'm hoping for 10 kronas to a dollar - then quietly exit USD, whistling into the air.
Speed | Homepage | 10.25.08 - 5:52 pm | #

Milton Friedmaniac writes:
"The credit crunch has made truck and car purchases discretionary. Why buy a new one when the one you have is working just fine?"

Paul, yer on to something. I remember, 25 years or so ago, working as a landscaper 'round Greenwich, Cos Cob, etc. My boss, Mike, had a mid '70s Chrysler with a dump body, plywood sides. We called it "Mad Max." Thing had crappy brakes, top speed around 50 mph, but it wouldn't die. Mike made a good living (in part) with that truck. He'd sooner have bought a new one for $20,000 as mowed the lawns nekkid.
Milton Friedmaniac | 10.25.08 - 5:52 pm | #

Paul writes:
What would happen if everyone in American decided they could wait another year to buy a new car?

This is what is happening now to the auto companies.
Paul | 10.25.08 - 5:52 pm | #

RE writes:
the hat tip should go to jmf, i.e. Jan-Martin. He posted it here first. This is his blog with this entry:

http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/


http://www.haloscan.com/comments...2975658/ #684755
RE | Homepage | 10.25.08 - 5:53 pm | #

bond guy writes:
"'The economic miracle that has been the USA was not produced by socialized enterprises, by gov.-union- cartels or by centralized economic planing. It was produced by private enterprises in a profit-and-loss system...' Milton Friedman
I'm with you, Broker! That whole post WWII so-called "prosperity" happened despite all that new-fangled regulatin' & such."

The part that Friedman didn't pick up on was that banks after WWII had 10-15% of their balance sheets in Treasury Bills.

Amazingly enough, the financial system managed to be stable over that period, allowing for steady growth.

Then central banks and to a lesser extent governments started following policies that he was a major advocate of, and the system has been stumbling from financial crisis to financial crisis.
bond guy | 10.25.08 - 5:54 pm | #

Milton Friedmaniac writes:
Paul, I myself just bought a used Toyota for me sweetie. $10k, cash, & we got $3k for the old one, which had 150k miles. The guy who bought that one will probably get another 60,000 with it.

no one really needs a new car.
Milton Friedmaniac | 10.25.08 - 5:54 pm | #

Broward Horne writes:
My country
Tis of thee
Sweet Land of Larceny
Of Thee Sing

Land Where Hank Paulson Lied
Land Where Lehman Brothers died
To every country world-wide
Let the bailout...

ca-$Ching.
Broward Horne | Homepage | 10.25.08 - 5:55 pm | #

Barakuda writes:
nafta is killing the trucking industry also,,,last year government allowed mexico to come up here like canada does with freight...mexicans and canadians taking work from us here...
Barakuda | 10.25.08 - 5:55 pm | #

Broker writes:
Fair Economist, I don't know what kind of facts you want me to give you. I don't know what your professors told you, but this country is still the greatest country in the world.
P.S. 78.2 includes all the gang related deaths?
P.P.S. I am not an economist but I used to teach math for a living.(high math). So just be careful when you throw numbers out their!
Broker | 10.25.08 - 5:57 pm | #

Jas Jain writes:
--
Now we know that non-dopes population in America is capped at 0.3%. :-) Back to impoprtant stuff...

David Rosenberg: "Markets are crying out for a policy response, and hoping for an expanded role from China (or more accurately, China’s US$1.9trn of foreign exchange reserves). Yet there is surprisingly little focus on this weekend’s Asia-Europe meetings in Beijing, which involves key leaders from more than 40 countries. Instead, investors appear to be looking ahead to the G20 meetings in Washington, scheduled for mid-November. We think China is intensively considering an expanded role in the global crisis, especially now that emerging markets are under pressure. And it is possible that preliminary details will be revealed this weekend. (Better than handing the spotlight to the US next month.) What to expect? First, a focus on Asia. News services have reported that China may expand its bilateral swap lines with Korea. China could extend this umbrella to other Asian countries, using the Chiang Mai initiative. In addition, it’s politically tempting for China, in our view, to assist Pakistan. Second, China may commit resources to IMF-led rescue programs for other emerging markets (for a look at what the IMF might do, please see “IMF to the rescue?” Currencies Strategy, 24 October 2008). However, the politics don’t quite stack up. (IMF approval still depends on the credit-challenged US, with its 17% vote in the IMF. Even after the latest “quota increase,” China’s vote is only 3.7%, far less than France’s.) Bottom Line: Western governments are exhausting their policy resources. The next step in policy response comes from the East—in particular, from countries with ample fiscal surpluses, stable currencies, and huge foreign exchange reserves. In other words, we see an increasingly important role for China
-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-

No mention of India. Isn't India part of Asia? The largest democracy on the planet has no role to play? And the largest Communist country holds the cards? AMAZING. If only a born-and-bred American dope, or an Americanized Indian dope, can explain as to why? Maybe democratic dopes and their crooked “leaders” have screwed up badly. Something is up with large democracies. INDIA IS TOAST, SOONER THAN ANYONE IMAGINES. (A victim? Of what??)

Jas

PS: A – Of Americanized Indian dopes. The Great American Dope Factory is something to marvel at. And I do!
Jas Jain | Homepage | 10.25.08 - 5:58 pm | #

Milton Friedmaniac writes:
"nafta is killing the trucking industry also"

Barak--you're right, as far as that goes. You might also want to examine the deregulation of the U.S. trucking industry, which took an honest, home-owner job and turned it into a meth-fueled life of log scammery & cheap whores.

OK, the cheap whores where there during regulation too, but still....
Milton Friedmaniac | 10.25.08 - 5:58 pm | #

Mel writes:
America's great economy had many causes--the greatest being abundant natural resources and no enemies on its borders. Abundant coastline and fresh water. Looked at from that perspective, that our per capita income wasn't double--triple all Western European countries shows that our "free market" didn't do so great--and doesn't seem to have endured so long.
Mel | 10.25.08 - 5:59 pm | #

lawyerliz writes:
MrM. As I've posted before, I sold out most of my (small)holdings last fall, and told myself I'd buy back in at 10,000 or slightly under. I've kept to my discipline before, and had moderate success. Had the mkt gone to say 9500 and quiverred around that area, I'd be back in again. I'm in a money mkt and not comfortable with that. a 6 handle gives me 50% off from the high, and I've always been of the "bulls bears and pigs" view.

The volatility is truly scary to me. Please do not take me for any kind of expert because I'm not. But then I don't think anyone else is either.
lawyerliz | 10.25.08 - 5:59 pm | #

Milton Friedmaniac writes:
we all better watch out for Broker's "high math," I think. Probably not far different from that of the quants who played no role in this economic incident.
Milton Friedmaniac | 10.25.08 - 6:00 pm | #

lawyerliz writes:
But broker did not teach spelling.
lawyerliz | 10.25.08 - 6:01 pm | #

mmckinl writes:
Bring back the drunk UAW workers and all will be well.
Paul

~~~~~~~

Planned obsolescence my friend ... another stroke of genius from our corporate leaders .../
mmckinl | 10.25.08 - 6:01 pm | #

curious writes:
So is it really the case that our economic problems are caused by Union wages and social programs? What would life be like without them? Mexico? Africa? What?
curious | 10.25.08 - 6:02 pm | #

Barakuda writes:
I know a lot of people like to talk about extreme circumstances here but I honestly thing that transportation is bieng sadly overlooked,freight tonage is WAY down,transportation infrastructure is vital to country...its commerce and military also....I guess when people get laid off from starbucks its a big deal,but turn your head when the transportation industry collapses,,,year to date over 30,000 truckers out of work....these are people making 40-80k a year not contributing to economy anymore...its sad
Barakuda | 10.25.08 - 6:02 pm | #

Broker writes:
Lawyerliz how many languages do you speak?
Broker | 10.25.08 - 6:06 pm | #

Feckless Ness writes:
My latest credit card statement shows $0 available for cash advances, despite over $10,000 available for purchases. I don't use and won't miss the privilege; just interesting to note the turning of the screws.

Also, called the company to ask them to lower my interest rate. Was told by a supervisor that the company is entertaining no requests to lower interest rates. Told her I'd take my business elsewhere - she didn't budge.
Feckless Ness | 10.25.08 - 6:08 pm | #

safe_as_apartments writes:
Just another volvo T.K.O.

Isn't that a Pendergrass song?
safe_as_apartments | 10.25.08 - 6:08 pm | #

Jas Jain writes:
--
"America's great economy had many causes--the greatest being abundant natural resources and no enemies on its borders. Abundant coastline and fresh water. Looked at from that perspective, that our per capita income wasn't double--triple all Western European countries shows that our "free market" didn't do so great--and doesn't seem to have endured so long."

Mel,

Americans inherited the greatest advantage of any large state in history at the end of WW II. The source of the advantage goes back to before 1850 when CA was taken from Mejico. The Baby Doomers were BRED to lead to America's doom and they will not disappoint. Breeding of the Doomers is whan when the dirty deed was done. There is no turning back on the one-way street of historical degradation of a civilization. Americans have morally degraded beyond repair. Morality isn’t easy to establish once it has been lost to New Era beliefs.

Jas
Jas Jain | Homepage | 10.25.08 - 6:09 pm | #

Barakuda writes:
hey milton...I have seen all the "dateline" specials from several years ago,,,yea the industry has changed a lot since then,we are very regulated with piss tests tracking devices and security clearances now...they have ran out the dopper baby boomers from back in the day....since 9-11 the government has put us in a vise grip...insurance is sky hi for trucker because everyone sees truckers as a free lunch for lawsuits...quick easy 50-100k no contest lawsuits.the good old "smokey and the bandit" days are gone,,,now truckers cant even make a living anymore
Barakuda | 10.25.08 - 6:09 pm | #

Paul writes:
Jas Jain, well it's nice to hear from you this Saturday.

You know, most (>50%) Americans are not dopes. Just go to a McCain or Palin (they don't seem to be getting along anymore) rally and you'll see the only dopes left in America.

We Bush-haters on the left knew the GOP was corrupt all along. Our country and our savings have been looted by scoundrels and the GOP was the cop on the beat. They were also, it seems, doing most of the looting.

They played a great game of bait and switch. They told America they had values and would make government honor those values.

They lied and now it's out there for all to see.

So Jas, my friend, call us dopes if you want. Just be sure you target that insult to the folks who voted GOP for the last 30 years.

Oops! That hasn't turned out so well.
Paul | 10.25.08 - 6:10 pm | #

safe_as_apartments writes:
For all the Volvo and Teddy Pendergrass fans:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r...h? v=rV9VuPkIIv4

Some Saturday rock blogging music.
safe_as_apartments | 10.25.08 - 6:11 pm | #

12th Percentile writes:
Ok, everyone, calm down.

We are allowed to have disagreements about the direction of the various markets and mock each other for their various predictions. But we should avoid personal attacks because, among other things, they are boring.

If you had all the answers you'd be too rich to post on a blog. Until you are doing bong hits with Lahde, let's just try to add value when possible.
12th Percentile | 10.25.08 - 6:12 pm | #

Republicans are TRAITORS writes:
'The economic miracle that has been the USA was not produced by socialized enterprises, by gov.-union- cartels or by centralized economic planing. It was produced by private enterprises in a profit-and-loss system..."
Milton Friedman


Oh, I thought it was produced by overpaid CEOs who graduated from an Ivy League school that were smarter than everyone else.
Republicans are TRAITORS | 10.25.08 - 6:12 pm | #

cent21 writes:
At least Bernanke has some expertise in this particular field.

OK, so it doesn't look like private capital equipment can pull us out of this downturn. Housing can't pull us out. Personal consumption expenditures not likely to do it for quite some time. I'm running out of categories other than classical government infrastructure.

Personal leaning is for energy 2.0 infrastructure, rather than just more roads. Bridges, maybe. But no more roads designed for 20th century fuels.
cent21 | Homepage | 10.25.08 - 6:14 pm | #

Feckless Ness writes:
Stop it, Paul. Corruption knows no party lines. There is no moral high ground.
Feckless Ness | 10.25.08 - 6:14 pm | #

lawyerliz writes:
broker:

One and a half languages. I can read Spanish, but have given up trying to understand Cuban Spanish. If they spoke an understandable dialect, I'd really try to understand. Other Spanish speakers say they have a hard time understanding them too.

Sorry for the snide remark. I have forgotten all my higher math, but did get up thru differential equations a zillion years ago. Still use a bit of trig and geometry.
lawyerliz | 10.25.08 - 6:14 pm | #

Dope Brontide writes:
@Barakuda

I think there are enough very disturbing stats out there that it's hard to keep track of them all. Transportation is just one; others include the Dollar-Yen conversion, GDP vs Deficit, underwater homes, shadow homes, YoY CPI deflation, .....
Dope Brontide | 10.25.08 - 6:15 pm | #

Pavel Chichikov writes:
"John S, this is continent-wide. Sweden was never more than partially socialist and they have pretty much backed down to the mixed-market model common everywhere in the developed world except the US>"

There's a common misconception that a welfare system is socialist. Socialism is when the ice cream cart down the road is owned, operated and inventoried by the Ministry of Junk Foods.
Pavel Chichikov | 10.25.08 - 6:16 pm | #

Republicans are TRAITORS writes:
"We Bush-haters on the left knew the GOP was corrupt all along. Our country and our savings have been looted by scoundrels and the GOP was the cop on the beat. They were also, it seems, doing most of the looting."

We Bush-haters on the right also recognize the corruption from Nancy Palosi, Diane Feinstein, Barney Frank, Barbara Boxer, Charles Shumer, Jessie Jackson, Hillary Clinton...
Republicans are TRAITORS | 10.25.08 - 6:16 pm | #

mmckinl writes:
cent21

easiest way out ?

Medicare for All ... helps states, local government, industry, individual payers and the uninsured ...
mmckinl | 10.25.08 - 6:16 pm | #

lawyerliz writes:
Maybe there will be a super duper medical advance that everyone will want to buy a piece of.

Thing is, these boosts come from out of the blue and are unpredictable.

No telling where the next Great Thing will come from.
lawyerliz | 10.25.08 - 6:17 pm | #

bearly writes:
A mere flesh wound.
bearly | 10.25.08 - 6:17 pm | #

Paul writes:
So sorry Feckless Ness. Clinton and Rubin did us no favors.
Paul | 10.25.08 - 6:18 pm | #

Gone Fishin' writes:
curious writes:
So is it really the case that our economic problems are caused by Union wages and social programs? What would life be like without them? Mexico? Africa? What?
curious | 10.25.08 - 6:02 pm | #

______________

$40-$80,000 is to much to pay a trucker. Union workers getting $24 an hour and full benefits. Government workers getting full pensions after 20 years with a full bene package. We have way too many overpaid uneducated people in this country.


THINK.




Have you been noticing an attack on working class people and the entitlement programs they depend on? Labor cost is always the highest cost associated with business. America is just going to have to get used to a lower standard of living and working harder for less.

My question is who made these decisions for us? Who controlled the costs we paid for medicine and healthcare, energy, taxes, insurance? Who spent the Social Security reserves and replaced them with bonds? Who decided we should start two wars?

When will we wake up to the fact we all live to work. Where did America go so wrong and sacrifice the "City on the Hill" visage we projected? When did the greed overcome our humanity?

Rant over. I have no idea where this ends but if it wasn't going to be badly then it wouldn't be ending. It is ending.
Gone Fishin' | 10.25.08 - 6:18 pm | #

mmckinl writes:
Corruption knows no party lines. There is no moral high ground.
Feckless Ness |

~~~~~~~~~~~~

Using regulatory agencies for deregulation is a Republican specialty ...
mmckinl | 10.25.08 - 6:18 pm | #

Jas Jain writes:
--
"You know, most (>50%) Americans are not dopes."

Paul,

LOL! I din't know that you wre such a kidder.

Jas
Jas Jain | Homepage | 10.25.08 - 6:19 pm | #

Speed writes:
If you want to know what the problem is in the world economy, look at the disparity between the super rich and everyone else. When the scale tips too far toward diamond encrusted dog collars, you get an imbalance that can't easily be rectified without a major shift in wealth. I don't blame rich people - who would turn down another million dollar raise? But I do blame the current situation, which is all the wealth at one end of the boat.
Speed | Homepage | 10.25.08 - 6:20 pm | #

coolie kidbuck writes:
A blast from the past: Not news, but, a good article that shows what the former big 3 managers were thinking.

"Over the four post-World War II decades, the Big Three collectively accounted for 88 to 96 percent of all passenger vehicles produced in the U.S.

As traditional oligopoly theory predicts, recognition of mutual interdependence, avoidance of competition, and a rigid attachment to the status quo flourished in this concentrated structural milieu.

In pricing, GM served for decades as the industry's price leader, setting prices in public utility fashion in order to obtain a predetermined rate of return, with Ford and Chrysler adopting GM's prices as their own.

In traditional oligopolistic fashion, General Motors, Ford, and Chrysler each recognized that vigorous entry into small, fuel-efficient cars by any one of them would compel entry into that segment by the other two."

http://tinyurl.com/As-GM-Goes

So goes the nation...
coolie kidbuck | 10.25.08 - 6:20 pm | #

Broward Horne writes:
Jas

Americans have morally degraded beyond repair. Morality isn’t easy to establish once it has been lost

I have to say I came to the same conclusion a few years ago. Even here on CR, most people are focused on the mechanics and specifics of the situation instead of the underlying cause.

If it was Lehman Brothers, it would have been something else. If it wasn't the quants, it would have been Chinese exchange rate of panic in Japan or new regulation, etc.

This is truly a society in delusion.
Broward Horne | Homepage | 10.25.08 - 6:21 pm | #

Paul writes:
Getting back to the stupidity of the auto companies...

Please see: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/2...ess/ 26jane.html

And my favorite GM quote of all time destined to be enshrined in the Irony Hall of Fame:

"When you hit a rough spot, you have to decide where the real priorities are," said Robert A. Lutz, G.M.'s vice chairman, adding that the S.U.V.'s were "where the company makes, frankly, high margins."

Mr. Lutz dismissed concerns that volatile gas prices would mean that large S.U.V.'s may not be the savior they have been in the past.

"Everybody thinks high gas prices hurt sport utility sales. In fact they don't," he said, adding that buyers of big S.U.V.'s like the Suburban, GMC Denali and Cadillac Escalade were well-off enough to be insulated from rising gas prices.

"Rich people don't care," he said.

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/03/2...20people& st=cse
Paul | 10.25.08 - 6:23 pm | #

PeakVT writes:
This is not unheard of for Volvo's domestic auto market. In their socialist society where government income taxes approach 80%, there's little disposable income in good times. Add a recession and NO ONE buys an automobile.

Um, the article is about Volvo TRUCKS, an independent GLOBAL company that does not make Volvo CARS. Good grief.
PeakVT | 10.25.08 - 6:23 pm | #

Barakuda writes:
yea DOPE your right....unfortunately truckers handle most of everything that moves in this country,,,I see it every week,from driving through areas of cleveland that have been abandon,to automotive factories closing and not taking freigt anymore,to the grocery store closing down because the profit margin has gotten 2 thin (btw wal-mart is shipping full steam ahead) I see a lot out here on the road...whole neighborhoods abandon...commercial properties for sale all over,retailers out of business....hell,I have seen more homeless people this year than I have seen since the 90's...also I have seen a TON of people moving in U-hual trucks which usually slows when schools open back up....I tell ya guys you see a lot of REAL economy through the winshield of a tracktor trailer....not just a spreadsheet,earnings projections and larry kudlow every night...its the real deal out here...
Barakuda | 10.25.08 - 6:24 pm | #

Broker writes:
Lawyerliz, I have been living in this country for ~15 years. And English believe it or not is the most difficult language of all. The English language (500k words - not including technical words) has more words than French, German and Russian languages combined. Add to that the fact English is a non-phonetic language, and I hope I made my point.
Broker | 10.25.08 - 6:27 pm | #

Paul writes:
Well Jas, my friend - I love to kid!

I've been reading your posts here for almost a year now and I love the "dope" thing.

As our GOP friends like to say, elitism is bad. Intellectuals are stupid. We Americans love hockey moms and their drunk husbands Joe.
Paul | 10.25.08 - 6:29 pm | #

Chris writes:
Something pleasant to look forward to...the depedestalization of the $.

The United States has plundered global wealth by exploiting the dollar's dominance, and the world urgently needs other currencies to take its place, a leading Chinese state newspaper said on Friday.

The front-page commentary in the overseas edition of the People's Daily said that Asian and European countries should banish the U.S. dollar from their direct trade relations for a start, relying only on their own currencies.

A meeting between Asian and European leaders, starting on Friday in Beijing, presented the perfect opportunity to begin building a new international financial order, the newspaper said.

The People's Daily is the official newspaper of China's ruling Communist Party. The Chinese-language overseas edition is a small circulation offshoot of the main paper.

Its pronouncements do not necessarily directly voice leadership views. But the commentary, as well as recent comments, amount to a growing chorus of Chinese disdain for Washington's economic policies and global financial dominance in the wake of the credit crisis.

"The grim reality has led people, amidst the panic, to realise that the United States has used the U.S. dollar's hegemony to plunder the world's wealth," said the commentator, Shi Jianxun, a professor at Shanghai's Tongji University.

Shi, who has before been strident in his criticism of the U.S., said other countries had lost vast amounts of wealth because of the financial crisis, while Washington's sole concern had been protecting its own interests.

"The U.S. dollar is losing people's confidence. The world, acting democratically and lawfully through a global financial organisation, urgently needs to change the international monetary system based on U.S. global economic leadership and U.S. dollar dominance," he wrote.
Chris | 10.25.08 - 6:29 pm | #

Barakuda writes:
to the guy who says truckers are overpaid....try working away from home 2-4 weeks ata time...(not at a red roof inn either)the conditions suck...trust me if it was a gravy job everybody would do it...I have seen pencil pushers from office jobs try and come out here to make 60k a year and they run home after 6 months in the industry because the cant stand the work...they would rather do a desk job for 35k a year than do this for 60k...
Barakuda | 10.25.08 - 6:30 pm | #

Lord Blankfien writes:
Milton Friedmaniac, I'm with you 100%.

Anti-socialism now, anti-socialism tomorrow, anti-socialism forever!

What made this country great wasn't sharing the wealth with the unwashed masses. It was us Harvard grads cutting it up amongst ourselves.

You may kiss my sacred Harvard ring.
Lord Blankfien | 10.25.08 - 6:31 pm | #

Blackhalo writes:
@Barakuda

Nice post. Charts and graphs are nice and all, but sometimes you have to break from your routine and get out and see the world.

Unless of course, you are a pundit on CNBC.

I learn an awful lot about the economy on my annual drive from Texas to Ohio.
Blackhalo | 10.25.08 - 6:32 pm | #

Pavel Chichikov writes:
You don't just learn Japanese - you have to *become* Japanese to speak it properly. That's what I've been told.

There's a great story about a young American who did speak perfect Japanese because because he spent a lot of his growing up years in Japan. He was talking with an old farmer out in the country - in Japanese of course - until the old man broke off the conversation and said: "You know, I never realized that it was so easy to speak English."
Pavel Chichikov | 10.25.08 - 6:33 pm | #

Gone Fishin' writes:
Barrakuda, Please read the whole post and realize that is the point I'm arguing against. The working class is being targeted for serious wage and benefit deflation.
Gone Fishin' | 10.25.08 - 6:34 pm | #

Feckless Ness writes:
I've been reading your posts here for almost a year now and I love the "dope" thing.

How cute! Jas, you have a groupie!

As our GOP friends like to say, elitism is bad. Intellectuals are stupid.

Source?
Feckless Ness | 10.25.08 - 6:35 pm | #

curious writes:
Barakuda- Frequent on-the-road updates would be very much appreciated. A lot of us don't get out much.
curious | 10.25.08 - 6:35 pm | #

mmckinl writes:
The working class is being targeted for serious wage and benefit deflation.

~~~

Done deal, just look at the last 30 years ... you just mean more of it ...
mmckinl | 10.25.08 - 6:35 pm | #

Barakuda writes:
Blackhalo....I think thats the problem these days...everybody too busy making balance sheets LOOK good and no one getting out in the real world to get a first hand look...
Barakuda | 10.25.08 - 6:35 pm | #

PeakVT writes:
Fed questions counterparties about Citadel: report

http://www.reuters.com/article/ b...E49O27H20081025
PeakVT | 10.25.08 - 6:37 pm | #

Henry Froemchen writes:

When will we wake up to the fact we all live to work.

waffle eater jim writes:
$40-$80,000 is to much to pay a trucker

Really? How much would you take in annual pay to be gone from home 250 nights a year?
waffle eater jim | 10.25.08 - 6:38 pm | #

mmckinl writes:
The working class is being targeted for serious wage and benefit deflation.

~~~~~

Next... the college educated middle class...
mmckinl | 10.25.08 - 6:38 pm | #

RE writes:
Pavel,
There's a common misconception that a welfare system is socialist. Socialism is when the ice cream cart down the road is owned, operated and inventoried by the Ministry of Junk Foods.

You are right. The fact is that in the U.S. any political position to the left of one's own is invariably labeled "socialist". It is nothing but a buzzword spouted without analysis.

It is a pity that U.S. political discourse has degenerated into slogans instead of reasoned policy positions.
RE | Homepage | 10.25.08 - 6:39 pm | #

Barakuda writes:
@curious

yea I read this post a lot...picked it up from bankrate over a year ago...just recently started posting...I read the threads and I have to laugh sometimes...some of these guys either by choice dont see the real world or too hard to see from harvard or some other ivy school...I am just a Blue collar middle class working guy tryin to make it out here....just call them as I see them
Barakuda | 10.25.08 - 6:40 pm | #

Bubble of American Supremacy writes:
Last friday, Chrysler said it would ax 25% of its white-collar employees.

ax 25% of its white-collar employees!

Seems Volvo has still a long way to go.
And those Chrysler employees probably were glad to only have Volvos problem (bumpy quater).
Bubble of American Supremacy | 10.25.08 - 6:41 pm | #

Blackhalo writes:
"lawyerliz writes:
Maybe there will be a super duper medical advance that everyone will want to buy a piece of.

Thing is, these boosts come from out of the blue and are unpredictable.

No telling where the next Great Thing will come from."

I would argue that Microsoft keeps a pretty tight lid on a great portion of that opportunity. Not a lot of venture capital for development of a product that Microsoft could use their monopoly to crush.

They like things the way they are with 90% of the business world paying them rents to use a computer.
Blackhalo | 10.25.08 - 6:42 pm | #

Don writes:
Mel writes:
Is this a Ford accomplishment?
Mel | 10.25.08 - 4:29 pm | #

No, Ford sold its heavy truck line to Daimler, who rebranded it as Sterling. Daimler recently announced they were discontinuing the Sterling line effective March 2009.
Don | Homepage | 10.25.08 - 6:42 pm | #

mmckinl writes:
RE

Even Adam Smith had a concept of social justice. What we are missing is the concept of the Common Good... those things that are shared as a matter of deference to the well being of the structures that allow all men to prosper.
mmckinl | 10.25.08 - 6:42 pm | #

Canadian watching with popcorn writes:
Think of all the unemployed ex-Harvard Wall Street types who will be driving truck in the next few years. They won't be driving the big rigs, probably the little trucks, delivering potato chips.
Canadian watching with popcorn | 10.25.08 - 6:43 pm | #

Barakuda writes:
too funny canuk...hehehe
Barakuda | 10.25.08 - 6:45 pm | #

Neil writes:
ReductiMat writes:
That must be a record of some sort.

I've read *all* the posts in this thread and that one response is the most on target. I'm in shock. Think about what this implies for construction, trade, and industrial growth on the continent.

It really implies how over-leveraged practically *all* companies are.

Speed also has a good point. This is slowing down... like hitting a brick wall.

Now somehow the NAR will tout this means the US is near a bottom and thus its the time to buy. ;)

Oh, oh US citizens: Maybe 20% read. The rest are consumers (Term from the book "The merchant wars.")

Got Popcorn?
Neil
Neil | Homepage | 10.25.08 - 6:45 pm | #

curious writes:
Barakuda- I, too, am/was blue-collar working class and proud of it. Retired now. Good luck to you and your family, if you have one.
curious | 10.25.08 - 6:46 pm | #

Emp writes:
The country is so diverse that there is no longer a common conception of the good. Social scientists who study social capital show that high rates of social capital always exist in tight-knit, culturally homogenous groups. I think that for a country as large as America, we need to localize political power as far as possible where there might still exist a common conception of the good. Republicans used to be the party of localization, but under the neo-cons becaume the party of big government conservativism; the Democrats are pretty upfront about being the party of centralized power. Hopefully the ass kicking that are about to get with cause the Repubs to refute the neo-cons and put new emphasis on localization.
Emp | 10.25.08 - 6:49 pm | #

PeakVT writes:
AIG has 8 weeks of cash; JPM using TARP funds to expand.
http://www.thestreet.com/story/1...ks-of- cash.html
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/2...ess& oref=slogin
PeakVT | 10.25.08 - 6:50 pm | #

Barakuda writes:
only at CR do you get such diverse postings....you get "ASS KICKING" and "CULTURALY HOMOGENOUS" all in the same post...2 funny...hehehe
Barakuda | 10.25.08 - 6:52 pm | #

It's All Good writes:
Don't know about the rest of you but the drop in gasoline prices- 50 cents in the last couple of weeks is making a big difference in the old pocket book.

Another dollar drop and I can deploy some extra cash as I choose.
It's All Good | 10.25.08 - 6:53 pm | #

Dirk writes:
Re: the downturn at Volvo, in big part it looks like a market share issue. Paccar does not seem to be nearly as downbeat about its DAF line, soft yes, disaster so far, no

http://seekingalpha.com/article/...ce=yahoo& page=5
Dirk | Homepage | 10.25.08 - 6:54 pm | #

prairiedog writes:
Regarding the Asian/European meeting....this is what Jim Willie has been warning us about. Collusion by other countries, who are sick at how our toxic "wealth" has been spread around, to switch to another reserve currency. His "secret sources" were apparently right on.
prairiedog | 10.25.08 - 6:54 pm | #

pugg squaar writes:
it puts an ironic twist to the phrase "the wheels are coming off" ne c'est pas?
pugg squaar | 10.25.08 - 6:55 pm | #

Paul writes:
I wrote: As our GOP friends like to say, elitism is bad. Intellectuals are stupid.

Feckless writes: Source?

I hate it when you put me on the spot!

OK - it's a perception thing.

For one perspective see http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/1...n/ 10brooks.html

I know - NY Times; but it is David Brooks.

"Over the past 15 years, the same argument has been heard from a thousand politicians and a hundred television and talk-radio jocks. The nation is divided between the wholesome Joe Sixpacks in the heartland and the oversophisticated, overeducated, oversecularized denizens of the coasts.

What had been a disdain for liberal intellectuals slipped into a disdain for the educated class as a whole. The liberals had coastal condescension, so the conservatives developed their own anti-elitism, with mirror-image categories and mirror-image resentments, but with the same corrosive effect."

There you go!
Paul | 10.25.08 - 6:57 pm | #

Blackhalo writes:
"I wonder if the EU-Asia summit will result in an ultimatum to the US to put Citi, BofA, JPM, MS and - horror of horrors! - GS under international supervision ?

Asia has most of the world's resources (financial and productive), the EU has shown best leadership in this crisis. How can the US respond, short of flexing the military muscle?"

They could probably make us do it. Threaten to stop buying treasuries and dump the ones they have would be hurtful.

The military option seems unlikely as W seems to have squandered that one. We can't afford it and our existing force is overextended. Maybe they will pull out Osama for an October surprise, but I doubt Pakistan is in any position to deliver.
Blackhalo | 10.25.08 - 6:57 pm | #

Barakuda writes:
btw...as I said in earlier post,I haul a lot of different stuff around this great country...and one of the companies I hual for is peterbuilt and kenworth,,,they have all but idled there asembly plant not expecting rebound in production until Q3 2009...too many newer used semis out on market that cant be sold...kinda like housing problem :/
Barakuda | 10.25.08 - 6:58 pm | #

dr munch writes:
Re: Medicare for all.

Wouldn't be so good for doctors. Lots of doctors would quit, myself included. Plus no incentive to enter medicine as a profession, quality of doctors tumbles. Medical costs go waaaaayyyy up. Dynamite idea!
dr munch | 10.25.08 - 6:59 pm | #

curious writes:
Gone Fishin' thinks wages are too high for uneducated workers and gov't workers retiring after 20 years with full bene's, and Speed sees it as wealth disparity. Anybody else?
curious | 10.25.08 - 6:59 pm | #

Bubble of American Supremacy writes:
Canadian watching with popcorn writes:
Think of all the unemployed ex-Harvard Wall Street types

I think in the 70`s manufacturing was 30% of GDP and finance 10%. In 2007, this has (almost) reversed. Assuming that "70`s financial system" is what an economy really needs. This implies that ca. 20% of GDP are said (future)unemployed ex-Harvard Wall Street types (since nobody needs their CD**3, ratings, etc. anymore).

==> plenty future truck drivers.
Bubble of American Supremacy | 10.25.08 - 7:01 pm | #

Barakuda writes:
peterbuilt and kenworth is PACCAR...fyi
Barakuda | 10.25.08 - 7:01 pm | #

RE writes:
Even Adam Smith had a concept of social justice. What we are missing is the concept of the Common Good... those things that are shared as a matter of deference to the well being of the structures that allow all men to prosper.

I fully agree. We live in a time of professed ideological purity instead of political pragmatism. This is where the sloganeering comes from. It is highly debilitating.
RE | Homepage | 10.25.08 - 7:03 pm | #

Paul writes:
Gone Fishin' thinks wages are too high for uneducated workers and gov't workers retiring after 20 years with full bene's, and Speed sees it as wealth disparity. Anybody else?
Paul | 10.25.08 - 7:03 pm | #

Paul writes:
Oops

Gone Fishin' thinks wages are too high for uneducated workers and gov't workers retiring after 20 years with full bene's, and Speed sees it as wealth disparity. Anybody else?

Oh yeah - we have a recession.
Paul | 10.25.08 - 7:04 pm | #

mmckinl writes:
Re: Medicare for all.

Wouldn't be so good for doctors. Lots of doctors would quit, myself included. Plus no incentive to enter medicine as a profession, quality of doctors tumbles. Medical costs go waaaaayyyy up. Dynamite idea!
dr munch

~~~~~~~~~

Most doctors would prefer it I am told ... No more hassling with HMOs. There are now doctors groups forming to demand it ... Yu are the exception to the rule...

Medicare for All is still privatized delivery, but with a single payer.
mmckinl | 10.25.08 - 7:04 pm | #

Paul writes:
Oh my - when all those uneducated and government workers stop spending...

We have a recession.

I guess I need a break.
Paul | 10.25.08 - 7:05 pm | #

Barakuda writes:
@dirk

PACCAR is sand bagging...trust me...I see there workers standing around picking there noses bitchen because the only got 20 hours work that week...all truck manufactures extremely weak now...and yes volvo has worst market share of heavy trucks..right along with mack.
Barakuda | 10.25.08 - 7:06 pm | #

Imelda Blahnik writes:
Pavel, that's hysterical (the "English-speaking" Japanese farmer). A friend of mine encountered the reverse of that in Taiwan. A white guy from the States, he tried to strike up a conversation with a small girl, a daughter of a friend of his. "Hello," he said in perfectly good Chinese, "what's your name?"

"I can't speak English," the girl said. "But I'm speaking Chinese," he replied. "Sorry, I can't speak English" was her response.

After a few more attempts he gave up.
Imelda Blahnik | 10.25.08 - 7:06 pm | #

Kona writes:
Blog song:

Grateful Dead - Truckin'
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v...h? v=vPNgjA4i6gM
Kona | 10.25.08 - 7:06 pm | #

Comrade Counterpointer writes:
Frpm prev lost thread:

Meltdown lullaby, last stanza:

...And when the Dow breaks
The cartel will fall
And down will come equity
Cartel and all.
Comrade Counterpointer | 10.25.08 - 7:09 pm | #

Comrade Vistulian writes:
Something to take the stress off:
Comrade Vistulian | 10.25.08 - 7:09 pm | #

Comrade Vistulian writes:
OK, try this URL
Comrade Vistulian | Homepage | 10.25.08 - 7:10 pm | #

Blackhalo writes:
" dr munch writes:
Re: Medicare for all.

Wouldn't be so good for doctors. Lots of doctors would quit, myself included. Plus no incentive to enter medicine as a profession, quality of doctors tumbles. Medical costs go waaaaayyyy up. Dynamite idea!"

Yeah, they are going to have to go at it from the supply side too. Fed sponsored hospitals/med schools and tuition discounts.

Nurse/practioners probably needs a boost.
Blackhalo | 10.25.08 - 7:11 pm | #

Pavel Chichikov writes:
'"I can't speak English," the girl said. "But I'm speaking Chinese," he replied. "Sorry, I can't speak English" was her response."'

I did that myself today at a farmer's market. The mixed salad greens were in a box that usually contains arugula. I asked the farmer if he still had any mixed salad greens. He laughed and said: "Sure. It's just that they were in the wrong box."

Many of us stay inside these rigid mental boxes. It's less work, I guess.
Pavel Chichikov | 10.25.08 - 7:13 pm | #

NC writes:
waffle eater jim writes:
$40-$80,000 is to much to pay a trucker"

I kind of like the idea that the guy driving this city block on wheels at 85 MPH in all sort of road conditions (and without necessarily a many hours of sleep as one would like) is not some irresponsible knuckle head with poor judgment-reflexes. I would gladly pay extra toll if the money were to go to truck driver salaries in order to encourage "excellence" in the profession. I have traveled a lot across the US for leisure, with huge trucks often being the only other vehicles on deserted roads, and a “reassuring” presence.
NC | 10.25.08 - 7:14 pm | #

mmckinl writes:
Blackhalo

All the zealots decry Medicare for All yet the rest of G7 have some form of it and health care costs are 60% or less than ours while insuring everyone !

Then they spread the rumors of how bad these systems are ... Michael Moore's Sicko says it all.
mmckinl | 10.25.08 - 7:15 pm | #

Blackhalo writes:
@Barakuda

"I know a lot of people like to talk about extreme circumstances here but I honestly thing that transportation is bieng sadly overlooked,freight tonage is WAY down,"

My understanding was that high diesel costs pushed a lot of freight to rail. Do your numbers include that?
Blackhalo | 10.25.08 - 7:15 pm | #

Swedish Guy writes:
As a person well familiar with Sweden, Volvo Trucks and Scania, I must point out that the story is very misleading. While orders for new trucks were indeed down, the reason for the so called 99.7% drop is that they went through their order books during the third quarter and purged old orders. During the boom years, delivery times for trucks were insane, which would make customers put in duplicate orders with multiple manufacturers to see who would deliver first, and then cancel all other others. This has pushed the previous order numbers artificially high. Now the customers were contacted and asked about their orders and they purged a whole lot of orders dating many quarter backs. Due to accounting rules, all those "cancellations" affect the Q3 number, but in reality those orders were actually never there to begin with, other than on paper. Also, Volvo Trucks is not owned by Ford, and has nothing to do with Volvo Cars. Furthermore, Scania is not controlled by Volvo and Sweden was never a socialist country and is today, in many ways, less socialist than the US. Sweden does have tax financed health and education sectors, but other than that, the Swedish market is generally less regulated than the US market. Examples of this would include no minimum wage, school and preschool vouchers, investment accounts for social security, much smaller involment by the government in the finance and housing sectors (no agencies like Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, etc.).
Swedish Guy | 10.25.08 - 7:15 pm | #

Anonymous writes:
This is NOT what I call Contained!!!!

----------------

Stag Mark, good to see you back!

Unfortunately Deflationary Jane might have the more appropriate moniker at this stage in the game. Something tells me that the price of those volvo trucks is going to plummet in the next few years...
Anonymous | 10.25.08 - 7:16 pm | #

nades writes:
that last contained was me! ;)

~n
nades | 10.25.08 - 7:16 pm | #

Barakuda writes:
@ NC

If the truckers dont get there product to stores and warehouses rapidly then people start to complain if there are no products on the shelves at stores...freight has become a "just in time business" or JIT the days of bulging warehouses are past...inventory management has become extremely tight especially in this environment...and you wonder why truckers fly down the road all the time....some pencil pusher in a cubicle looks at his map and says" its only 3 inches on the map...can you be there yesterday?"
Barakuda | 10.25.08 - 7:21 pm | #

Mel writes:
Goldwater was the last true Republican and he was victimized by the dirtiest campaign ever--remember the atom bomb pictures. Well, the Rs learned their lesson and decided to always fight dirtier--and they have succeeded.

After Bush's uncurious stupidity accelerated the doom created by Reaganomics--the creed of selfishness --of short term thinking--of lower taxes for the wealthy--of destruction of the working class by killing off unions. So what does McCain do, he finds someone less qualified than Bush to be a running mate--then exclaims that party labels don't matter and that he's anti-Bush.
And half the country buys into it. Jas is underestimating American dopiness---P. T. Barnum knew this a long time ago.
Saddest part of this dash to crash--American churches don't, as a rule, help the underdog--just help themselves to money, power, and influence. In N Carolina, the churches are segregated--and the white ones run private academies to deny integration. Do they really think that's what Jesus wants?
Our moral compass has never been as bad as it is now--but its never been that good either.
Mel | 10.25.08 - 7:22 pm | #

Imelda Blahnik writes:
Thanks for the clarification (all aspects of it), Swedish Guy.
Imelda Blahnik | 10.25.08 - 7:22 pm | #

Barakuda writes:
@nc


look at what happened to gas lines when truckers couldnt get it there fast enough in atlanta and charolette this summer...they had to bring fuel from farther away...people complained about shortages
Barakuda | 10.25.08 - 7:23 pm | #

Jas Jain writes:
--
"Jas, Americans have morally degraded beyond repair. Morality isn’t easy to establish once it has been lost ... This is truly a society in delusion."

Broward Horne,

Thank you, brother. I would like to give you a brotherly hug.

Actually, everyone here, even when we disagree, is an e-brother or e-sister in my concern towards fellow Americans, in general. People read bad motives in my heart-felt warnings for reasons of their own. This blog has the spirit of " it is a free country" and we should make the best of it. Despite my specific criticism of CR, I truly think that CR is a great American doing service to the American people, unlike Crooks who operate the propaganda machine, e.g., Faux Knows.

Jas
Jas Jain | Homepage | 10.25.08 - 7:24 pm | #

Bubble of American Supremacy writes:
Swedish Guy writes:
...the story is very misleading.

but, but the american supremacists loved it so much.
Bubble of American Supremacy | 10.25.08 - 7:24 pm | #

Imelda Blahnik writes:
Goldwater was the last true Republican?

I realize many Republicans want to disavow Bush II, the way "actual" Marxists like to disavow the Soviet Union, but they sure championed him for the last seven years.

lol Reagan not a Republican. That's cute.
Imelda Blahnik | 10.25.08 - 7:25 pm | #

Barakuda writes:
@blackhalo

rail freight has increased some...the problem is containers still have to get to rail yard and away from rail yard...hence the truck driver...yes some of the bigger companies(JB hunt,Swift trans,scnieder national,) can utilize rails because they have enormous overhang of empty trailers...however they are starting to sell assets,and all those empty trailers are being sold as well...not enough capacity to keep idle equipment
Barakuda | 10.25.08 - 7:27 pm | #

curious writes:
Paul- I'm trying to get at the root cause of the recession, by asking the board why, if anyone has an opinion. We know about the housing slump, and have opinions as to why. HELOC's, CRA, shiftless, lazy minorities and poor whites, over-regulation, under-regulation, neo-con agenda, two-war front, democrats, HP, AG, BB, rating agencies, SEC, overseas competition, corporate greed, incompetent oversight, irrational exuberance, credit bubble, what am I missing here? CRE bubble, hell, even the bubbles have bubbles. Job losses by the hundreds of thousands. More homeless than ever, and probably more to come. What happened? Somebody. Anybody?
curious | 10.25.08 - 7:29 pm | #

syvanen writes:
"'The economic miracle that has been the USA was not produced by socialized enterprises, by gov.-union- cartels or by centralized economic planing. It was produced by private enterprises in a profit-and-loss system..."
Milton Friedman

Broker easy to say if you ignore US history. Ninteenth century capitalism was built around centralized planning. Read about the building of the rail roads and the US Post Office (the latter highly subsidized by the gov to encourage distribution of goods to the frontier states). You might also take a look at the development of corporate law and its role in building, well corporations. Someone else mentioned the role of the interstate highway system. Yes more centralized government planning.

Friedman's empty slogans were designed for those ignorant of the history of the growth of capitalism.
syvanen | 10.25.08 - 7:29 pm | #

Bob Dobbs writes:
"Paul writes:
What would happen if everyone in American decided they could wait another year to buy a new car?

This is what is happening now to the auto companies."

Back in the '60s, the cartoonist Dan O'Neil said that the most subversive thing you could say in America was "Buy a Used Car!"

We are all subversive now!

Besides, when even most Detroit iron will go 100K+ without disaster, how often do people really need to buy cars. And there are plenty of clean lease-cars for sale.
Bob Dobbs | 10.25.08 - 7:30 pm | #

Mel writes:
reagan was not a Goldwater, libertarian Republican--he was a tool of the rich. I disagreed with a lot of BG's policy ideas, but never, never questioned his sincerity or motivation. Ron Paul is a republican--very few others should wear the label. They aren't even conservatives--they're corporatists.
Mel | 10.25.08 - 7:31 pm | #

Paul writes:
Volvo et al. are suffering because our economy is based on discretionary spending. When times get tough, we stop spending on new cars and toys. "Luxuries" are just that - we stop buying them when there is economic uncertainty.

"For Dwight and Rochelle Stokes of Phenix City, Ala., the layoffs are a family event. He lost his job two weeks ago as an aviation mechanic at the Pratt & Whitney jet engine facility near his home — a few days after his wife lost hers as a cosmetologist at Great Clips, a family-owned barbershop and beauty salon."

“It got really slow in July and August,” Ms. Stokes said. “I would sit there for two hours, and some days we had only 10 clients, four of us for 10 clients.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/2...layoffs.html? hp

Corporations and small businesses need to understand that their layoffs will doom our economy. They need keep their employees for a few quarters while the fear subsides.

Unfortunately, they can't. They've sacrificed that cushion on the altar of efficiency and leverage. This magnifies the loss.

We can only hope that it ends before the only folks left with jobs are folks who supply food and clothing.

Anyone want to buy an iPod?
Paul |