HaloScan.com - Comments

JJL writes:
Wasnt Mayo the guy in the movie "An Officer and a Gentleman"?

I say hold the MAYO on an all clear call for LEH.
JJL | Homepage | 03.17.08 - 2:30 pm | #

Ministry of Truth writes:
Waaaaaaa!!! What a whiney little kid.
Ministry of Truth | 03.17.08 - 2:30 pm | #

Marcus Aurelius writes:
Two minutes later, the FBI shows up at their door...

Mayo: "What I maent to say was, we're broke".
Marcus Aurelius | 03.17.08 - 2:31 pm | #

KnotRP writes:
No, they are not screwed...it wasn't their money, and The Can has clearly been kicked past clawback of 2007 bonuses.

(Someone else *is* screwed...)
KnotRP | 03.17.08 - 2:31 pm | #

BillF writes:
Uh huh.

LEH: 26.10 -13.37 (-34.06%)
BillF | 03.17.08 - 2:34 pm | #

safe_as_apartments writes:
As we've seen over and over during these last several months, points one and two can be invalidated in a matter of hours.

Point four is questionable: where is the evidence that experienced management today can handle a crisis of this magnitude? Wasn't Jimmy Cayne experienced?

Point three appears to be valid argument in support of the Lehman's business, especially if the asset management share of revenues is large.

In this era of eroding confidence in the value of securities, I don't think numbers in and of themselves hold much weight. What we need are error bars on those numbers.
safe_as_apartments | 03.17.08 - 2:35 pm | #

Angry Saver writes:
Mayo was late to the game. Especially when compared to non-wall street commentators and folks on this and similar blogs. Mayo was just a little earlier to recognize the problems at banks than his peers.

Clearly, the bar for Mayo was set VERY low. The best of the incompetent!

He probably had a hold on BSC & a price target of $80 last fall.
Angry Saver | 03.17.08 - 2:35 pm | #

Tanta writes:
He left out "Lehman didn't make as many enemies over the years as Bear did."
Tanta | 03.17.08 - 2:35 pm | #

Bruce writes:
".....an asset management business that is more than twice as large relative to its size...."

Ok Ok, We'll give you $4, but only until Friday at 4 pm. After that, you are on your own....
Bruce | 03.17.08 - 2:36 pm | #

jo6pac writes:
Yep Employees and stockholders
jo6pac
The race to the bottom picks up speed.
jo6pac | 03.17.08 - 2:36 pm | #

Dagny writes:
Not everyone agrees it is a liquidity rather than solvency issue. Krugman links to Nouriel Roubini today.
Dagny | 03.17.08 - 2:37 pm | #

Angry Saver writes:
Memo to Mike Mayo: IT's THE LEVERAGE STUPID!
Angry Saver | 03.17.08 - 2:39 pm | #

Barley writes:
enemies! lol!
Barley | 03.17.08 - 2:39 pm | #

Marcus Aurelius writes:
make no mistake, it' solvency.
Marcus Aurelius | 03.17.08 - 2:39 pm | #

saul writes:
"Lehman: We're Not Bear, and We're Not Screwed"

http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ti...h-ti...ere-Not- Screwed

Ridiculous! Absolutely Ridiculous!
saul | 03.17.08 - 2:39 pm | #

Barley writes:
Asset Mgmt? BSC got into trouble because of rumours...people withdrew their money...nothing left to manage
Barley | 03.17.08 - 2:41 pm | #

Interesting Times writes:
My first hat tip :-)

Thanks !
Interesting Times | 03.17.08 - 2:41 pm | #

Angry Saver writes:
Citi is tapped out. BAC has had to swallow CFC. JPM now has BSC.

Who will take on WAMU, LEH, WB, etc???

The fed's balance sheet is shot. The answer is ZIRP!
Angry Saver | 03.17.08 - 2:41 pm | #

Tony Shifflett writes:
Ahhhh. We'll see. I recall that last week we had Kramer saying to hold onto BSC.

As pointed out above, things change. And can change in a matter of hours. Let's see what the remaining three days of trading bring us to.

Could be a very interesting Easter Weekend.
Tony Shifflett | 03.17.08 - 2:42 pm | #

Film at 11 writes:
I don't think the people disparaging Mayo know much about Mayo. He has long been the most honest, and most bearish when justified, of the bank analysts.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/...o-deutsche- bank

http://paul.kedrosky.com/ archive...mayo_heart.html
Film at 11 | 03.17.08 - 2:42 pm | #

saul writes:
its about time

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/...& siteid=yahoomy
saul | 03.17.08 - 2:43 pm | #

Anonymous writes:
lehman is not bear? Does that mean that his stock should be more than 2 dollars. I think the Fed will do everything in its power and use as many tax dollars as they can to prop up the banks. Goodbye SKF hello SMN, DUG. Massive deflation is coming to the world. Everything is going to get priced down, Gold, Steel, Copper, Oil, homes, art, Amazing spiderman #1 etc. Look at the activity on SRS after the feds mortgage bailout it never hit its old highs. The same will happen with SKF.
Anonymous | 03.17.08 - 2:44 pm | #

Portland Refugee writes:
It took 40 lenders to reach 2billion.....hmmmmmm
Portland Refugee | Homepage | 03.17.08 - 2:46 pm | #

safe_as_apartments writes:
S&P and the Dow are both down 16 points!

The Dow components must have a much brighter future than the large caps given today's news. I can say that, right? I love efficient markets.
safe_as_apartments | 03.17.08 - 2:48 pm | #

NSA writes:
The Fed's new move -- giving broker-dealers access to the discount window -- changes the whole ball-game. If the Fed had made this move last Wednesday, the insider argues, Bear wouldn't have been toast.

If we all had Richie Rich as our friend, none of us would have any problems, either.
NSA | 03.17.08 - 2:48 pm | #

Average Joe writes:
I wish someone would challenge the contitutionality of the FED spending taxpayer dollars in the form of taking bad collateral for treasuries. If the FED is stuck with them for a loss, that is equivilant to spending tax dollars on a bailout. Isn't that something for elected officials?
Average Joe | 03.17.08 - 2:49 pm | #

Angry Saver writes:
In recent years, the financials accounted for approximately 35% of the profits in the S&P500. The profits were bogus and unsustainable.

Energy has been the second largest source of profits for the S&P 500. The energy profits are at least partly based on a weak dollar and Middle East conflict. Not good metrics for a sound economy.

Large cap stocks are over-valued based on historical measures. The Nasdaq & Russell 2000 are vastly more overvalued based on historical measures.

Buy and hold is now a VERY long term proposition.
Angry Saver | 03.17.08 - 2:50 pm | #

tg writes:
Tax dollars? We don't need tax dollars where we are going.
tg | 03.17.08 - 2:51 pm | #

Average Joe writes:
How many people across this country are buying and selling DOW stocks right now?

Sure seems like alot of action in the hands of so few. My guess is they are doing it with other people's money.

The average joe may have access to money in their 401K, but he can't move in and out of the market inside the trading day.

If you can't spot the sucker at the table......
Average Joe | 03.17.08 - 2:53 pm | #

Marcus Aurelius writes:
Someone mentioned the commodities getting clobbered earlier today. Interesting application of "clobbered".

Semantics.

I believe money is being taken out of large (really large) positions in commodities and used to prop up stocks. Several rally attempts have been made with offsetting dips in commodities.

This is not a good sign for stocks, as the fundamentals have not changed, balance sheets are suspect, valuation has broken down, and there is no confidence in the market or the Fed at this point.
Marcus Aurelius | 03.17.08 - 2:54 pm | #

elkal writes:
Amazing spiderman #1

Nnnnoooooooooooooooooo!
elkal | 03.17.08 - 2:55 pm | #

Keep It Simple, I'm Stupid writes:
What is the rationale for BSC trading above $4 eight now? JPM is up, but not by that much.
Keep It Simple, I'm Stupid | Homepage | 03.17.08 - 2:56 pm | #

Anonymous writes:
"I believe money is being taken out of large (really large) positions in commodities and used to prop up stocks. Several rally attempts have been made with offsetting dips in commodities."

I agree, have you looked at the Canadian markets?

How can the US equities be the only one's that are NOT getting hammered?
Anonymous | 03.17.08 - 2:58 pm | #

cd writes:
Should have posted this here...
leh is vegas like action today!
22-27 range..

Think it will pop after rate cut tomm?
cd | 03.17.08 - 2:58 pm | #

Stratonovich calculus writes:
@ Angry Saver, "Buy and hold is now a VERY long term proposition."

Looks like the data from Shiller's Irrational Exuberance says that average, indexed returns for the next 20 years should fall somewhere between plus or minus 2 percent!
Stratonovich calculus | 03.17.08 - 2:58 pm | #

Winston writes:
Off topic, but:

BBC report on tent cities of foreclosure victims springing up outside L.A.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H...h? v=HwRIzNyArRY
Winston | 03.17.08 - 2:58 pm | #

ShortCourage writes:
Bloomberg also has an interview with Meredith Whitney where she claims that the Lehman situation is much different (better) than what Bear faced.

(I don't know how to link it, but it's available right now from the Bloomberg home page).
ShortCourage | 03.17.08 - 2:59 pm | #

Marcus Aurelius writes:
Rationale? It was going negative, so we tranched that bad boy off with some of our securities. We feel things work better without it.
Marcus Aurelius | 03.17.08 - 2:59 pm | #

Keep It Simple, I'm Stupid writes:
Well, yeah, but at this point, the only way Bear folks do better is if JPM stock goes up. At the moment, it's trading for a large premium to JPM. Isn't there a spread to take advantage of there? Go long JPM and short Bear?
Keep It Simple, I'm Stupid | Homepage | 03.17.08 - 3:01 pm | #

Mark writes:
I humbly disagree wrt SKF. It still has a lot of play, even with the Fed trying its hardest to prop up the banks.

Fed moves aren't fixing the root problem: there is no trust left in the system. Look at the article: you have people trying to desperately put out press releases saying "we aren't as bad! we aren't as bad!" That is so absolutely comical that we're even in an environment where that soundbite is created.

Remember, the window is open only to stash some of these unpriceable assets for a short amount of time. At some point, the assets will get priced. They must be, because the alternative is one nationalized bank. When the assets get priced, the writedowns will send SKF to the moon.

If you're really jittery, you probably shouldn't be in SKF in the first place, but personally, I'm pretty confident in its potential, especially post-election.
Mark | 03.17.08 - 3:02 pm | #

Sebastian writes:
Average Joe asked: "I wish someone would challenge the contitutionality of the FED spending taxpayer dollars in the form of taking bad collateral for treasuries. If the FED is stuck with them for a loss, that is equivalent to spending tax dollars on a bailout. Isn't that something for elected officials?"

Would you prefer to wait while that issue gets sorted out and passed through both houses of Congress?:)

It's so unfair. We by-passed constitutional safeguards to invade Iraq, opened a "floating S-and-M facility" off the coast of Florida, and illegally wiretapped U.S. citizens, but there's push-back when the government actually steps-up and tries to quickly address a *real* crisis.

With still other critics elsewhere complaining that it's not doing enough, didn't respond quickly enough, should have known years ago, etc.

They couldn't pay me enough to be a policy-maker.:)

S.
Sebastian | 03.17.08 - 3:02 pm | #

Nemo writes:
Tanta --

He left out "Lehman didn't make as many enemies over the years as Bear did."

I wonder about that. Lehman was the other firm that refused to join the LTCM bail-out...

What goes around, comes around
Nemo | Homepage | 03.17.08 - 3:02 pm | #

Interesting Times writes:
"Our dollar is worth maybe zero over here,"

http://www.reuters.com/article/ o...758265520080317

Dollars tough to sell on streets of Amsterdam

AMSTERDAM (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar's value is dropping so fast against the euro that small currency outlets in Amsterdam are turning away tourists seeking to sell their dollars for local money while on vacation in the Netherlands.

"Our dollar is worth maybe zero over here," said Mary Kelly, an American tourist from Indianapolis, Indiana, in front of the Anne Frank house. "It's hard to find a place to exchange. We have to go downtown, to the central station or post office."

That's because the smaller currency exchanges -- despite buy/sell spreads that make it easier for them to make money by exchanging small amounts of currency -- don't want to be caught holding dollars that could be worth less by the time they can sell them.

The dollar hovered near record lows on Monday, with one euro worth around $1.58 versus $1.47 a month ago.

(Reporting by Svebor Kranjc, writing by Reed Stevenson)
Interesting Times | 03.17.08 - 3:03 pm | #

s writes:
If Lehman had so much liquidity to the tune of over $100 billion why secure an extra $2B and put a press release out. Smells. Also that anyone and everyone can now come and dump on the steps of the Federal Reserve is likewise not reassuring. I wonder if Lehman will disclose on its call how much it has taken to the window tomorrow? Seems like a FD dislcosure - or at least a safe harbor
s | 03.17.08 - 3:04 pm | #

Marcus Aurelius writes:
We should take Washington's likeness off the dollar. It's disrespectful.
Marcus Aurelius | 03.17.08 - 3:05 pm | #

Anonymous writes:
Dow goes green.
Anonymous | 03.17.08 - 3:09 pm | #

Tim writes:
I agree that SKF looks toppy. Why put your money in something that has already gone up 20% "double the gain to 40%" and that every media outlet already has reported on i.e. housing sucks, a run on the bank is likely (how many George Bailey clips have you seen?). Also why fight the Fed. You may ultimatley win but it will be one hell of a long and drawn out dog fight.
Tim | 03.17.08 - 3:12 pm | #

cd writes:
How will the world view .75 cut if we close in green today? My take not good..
cd | 03.17.08 - 3:13 pm | #

ac writes:

Looks like the Fed discount window is going to get hooked straight up to the equity markets. Should be an exciting ride.

I can see the DOW hitting 100K before year's end.

ac | 03.17.08 - 3:13 pm | #

Anonymous writes:
The stock market is like an NBA game - all you need to watch is the last quarter.
We could finish up 100 or down 200 based on where we are now.
Lets watch....
Anonymous | 03.17.08 - 3:14 pm | #

HOUSE2008 writes:
Lehman didn't make as many enemies over the years as Bear did."
Yeah, now it's called carma. As in mom can I borrow your beater as I no longer make the payments on my Hummer, BMWs & Mercedes to drive to work.

It always amazes me that SO much "power" can be vested with just a few people that can wreck the financial lives of so many ordinary people who just want to work every day. Such as Enron employees. To say "live within your means" is not new but it should be added "to live within your means w/o credit". How is it people with three Ph.d's & three masters in whoeconomics & whatevermathmatics can be so um, dumb?
AND WHAT THE PBTHH! 90+ Trillion in dadrips on your books that's more than ALL the real estate value of the U.S. (& Mexico) thrown in for good measure. There should be a law against that.
HOUSE2008 | 03.17.08 - 3:15 pm | #

Greg writes:
Repeating what I wrote over at BP:

How is it possible that, with Lehman collapsing, Bear obviously destroyed, Citi faltering, and Goldman set to write down $3 billion tomorrow; with the Nikkei down, the Hang Seng down, the ASX, the DAX, the CAC, the FTSE, and the TSX all bleeding; and with the S&P hit, along with NASDAQ........

THE F***KING DOW IS STILL GOING TO CLOSE IN THE GREEN!?!
Greg | 03.17.08 - 3:17 pm | #

bluestatedon writes:
"We should take Washington's likeness off the dollar. It's disrespectful."

Agree 100%. I say replace him with Ben Stein.
bluestatedon | 03.17.08 - 3:18 pm | #

FatalException writes:
Greg-

My sentiments exactly. What the heck is going on there?
FatalException | 03.17.08 - 3:20 pm | #

Anonymous writes:
Frankly, I hope it holds and gives a few J6Ps time to get out.

Besides the fact that these guys know that they don't make money if the frog boils quickly.
Anonymous | 03.17.08 - 3:22 pm | #

bluestatedon writes:
I think we've discovered a physical law of the universe protecting the 12,000 mark in the DJ. Sort of like a somewhat pliable speed-of-light. You can go past it, but for each increment below it you go, the force in the other direction gets proportionally stronger. Einstein would have discovered it except for the fact that the Dow didn't exist when he was in his prime.
bluestatedon | 03.17.08 - 3:22 pm | #

Angry Saver writes:
S. Calculus,

Thanks for the great link.

Whatever all these people expecting 12% annual returns are smokin is VERY bad for their WEALTH.
Angry Saver | 03.17.08 - 3:23 pm | #

Fair Economist writes:
Bear's shares are staying up because a lot of people think Bear is worth more than 2 bucks. Bear would have access to the discount window now, and has a book value of 12 billion - nearly 50 times the purchase price!. Yes, a lot of people here think that book will be erased by MBS losses - but a lot elsewhere don't.

The deal isn't yet sealed. Bear shareholders can still cancel the merger. 1/3 of shares are owned by employees and with the layoff threats they have big incentives to block the deal. A substantial minority of investors voting against would cancel the merger.
Fair Economist | 03.17.08 - 3:24 pm | #

cd writes:
march madness and st. pattys-Me thinks we end up green today
cd | 03.17.08 - 3:26 pm | #

Eric writes:
What's with the speculation on Bear execs loving this $2 bid because now they "don't have to pay back their bonuses"????

Their bonuses were mostly in stock, and I would guess restricted stock at that: can't sell, can't hedge, for a few years. So they're getting whacked too.
Eric | 03.17.08 - 3:27 pm | #

Troy writes:
DOW IS STILL GOING TO CLOSE IN THE GREEN

Well, it /is/ St Paddy's Day . . .
Troy | 03.17.08 - 3:27 pm | #

freakdog writes:
Maybe we can call it the "St. Patrick's Day Miracle?"
freakdog | 03.17.08 - 3:28 pm | #

TCA writes:
The markets are expecting a 100 bps cut tomorrow. I think that expectation is already baked in the cake. If you look back to the days prior to the past few cuts, you'll see there was a runup just prior to the day of the announcement.

If this market gets less than 100, look out below...
TCA | 03.17.08 - 3:29 pm | #

Anonymous writes:
I don't believe in conspiracy theories, but there must be some herd behavior driving the support.

The shorts?
The PBGC getting into equities?
Europeans?
Anonymous | 03.17.08 - 3:29 pm | #

Anonymous writes:
looks like its going to be up 100, the shorts are losing conviction at the end of the day. Sorry folks....
Anonymous | 03.17.08 - 3:29 pm | #

red writes:
Repeating what I wrote over at BP:

How is it possible that, with Lehman collapsing, Bear obviously destroyed, Citi faltering, and Goldman set to write down $3 billion tomorrow; with the Nikkei down, the Hang Seng down, the ASX, the DAX, the CAC, the FTSE, and the TSX all bleeding; and with the S&P hit, along with NASDAQ........

dow has lots of f/x inflation hedge plays like coca cola, also note that jpm is in dow and is up 10%

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/cp?s=%5EDJI
red | 03.17.08 - 3:29 pm | #

Interesting Times writes:
Anonymous - it's the dollar tanking. Inflation is being added to the DOW.
Interesting Times | 03.17.08 - 3:30 pm | #

Taos writes:
went to Subway ( wall street ) and bought a sh*t sandwich ( Lehman )

asked them to put a little Mayo on it so it would taste better

guess what?

It still tasted like a Sh*t sandwich!

Whocoodanode?????
Taos | 03.17.08 - 3:31 pm | #

Average Joe writes:
Who has cash to be doing all the buying?

All the bulls (unless they have been lying) can't still have any cash left since it's been a buyers market for months.

All the bears can't have moved back in because god knows this aint the bottom.

O-Joe O-Joe!!!
Average Joe | 03.17.08 - 3:31 pm | #

cd writes:
Leh-buy 21.99 sell 25.59..Darn irishmen keep adding more green!
cd | 03.17.08 - 3:31 pm | #

Anonymous writes:
Alcohol?
Anonymous | 03.17.08 - 3:32 pm | #

Turbo writes:
(1) the market is very, very short, especially financials.
(2) it feels like there was some serious sovereign buying today.
(3) the market has a little over 100 bps priced for the fed tomorrow.

That being said, I'm stunned the market didn't get crushed today.
Turbo | 03.17.08 - 3:33 pm | #

burnside writes:
In Amsterdam, you may exchange your dollars at banks, of which there are many.

The dollar's value fluctuates throughout the day and always has. Exchange desks are entirely accustomed to this.

Reuters should perhaps interview normal people.
burnside | 03.17.08 - 3:35 pm | #

Marcus Aurelius writes:
The money is coming from those who have the most - and the most to lose. The little guy knows he'll get crushed in the fight, so he's on the sidelines.

Only those who know the truth are still in the game, and they're fighting for their lives.
Marcus Aurelius | 03.17.08 - 3:35 pm | #

TCA writes:
Average Joe writes:
Who has cash to be doing all the buying?

I think Marcus was right. Silver (and Glod, to a lesser extent) is being sold to buy equities. Look at the hit silver took today when all the available evidence indicates it should be ramping up as the dollar tanks. Not a sustainable rally by any means.
TCA | 03.17.08 - 3:35 pm | #

energyecon writes:
See, it's the return of risk appetite because now all the bad news has been priced in! [/sarcasm off] ;-)
energyecon | 03.17.08 - 3:35 pm | #

cd writes:
they cut tomorrow..it would be plain foolish with green close..
cd | 03.17.08 - 3:36 pm | #

energyecon writes:
TCA,

Might be intersting to consider the 52 week high/low counts and NYSE adv/dec...
energyecon | 03.17.08 - 3:36 pm | #

byzantine_ruins writes:
It's the best day in the Dow your tax dollars can buy. They still can't fight gravity, though, although they can sacrifice the country's future and currency to give you the impression they have.
byzantine_ruins | Homepage | 03.17.08 - 3:38 pm | #

Mishkin_On_Skis writes:
Meredith Whitney just on CNBC. Positive comments on LEH and disclosed through table that she owns stock. Stock has completely turned around. Very neg on UBS, MER and C, though. Banks are the overvaluations here according to her FWIW.
Mishkin_On_Skis | 03.17.08 - 3:40 pm | #

NSA writes:
Abba Goes to the Fed Window, as drummer dies.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/ 20...ad_n_91832.html
NSA | 03.17.08 - 3:41 pm | #

Average Joe writes:
Well, if we close green, I guess it makes sense.

Seeing value where there is none is what got us in this mess.
Average Joe | 03.17.08 - 3:42 pm | #

Anonymous writes:
Sounds like everyone here should just go long since the whole thing is a conspiracy - how can you lose if you believe that?
Patience.
We'll be lower in the not too distant future.
Anonymous | 03.17.08 - 3:43 pm | #

Hazard writes:
Dow up 75 the last time I looked.

All thanks to the strength of our financial systems and the faith of investors in our way of life. Or something like that.
Hazard | 03.17.08 - 3:43 pm | #

squeezed writes:
Looks like the three sisters are green today.

Kafkaesque.
squeezed | 03.17.08 - 3:43 pm | #

Anonymous writes:
I suppose our expectations are molded by the fact that we are on CR as opposed to elsewhere.

When I went into work this morning I got a few comments about Bear, but concern really doesn't seem on their radar. It's just another day....
Anonymous | 03.17.08 - 3:43 pm | #

Anonymous writes:
making bearish comments about mtg related losses in Nov '07 didn't put Mayo ahead of his peers. many publishing sell side analysts foresaw significant mtg related losses for the industry well before that. Some as early as 2006
Anonymous | 03.17.08 - 3:44 pm | #

Anonymous writes:
Uh oh, shorts are losing conviction.
Fearful of 100bps tomorrow.
Watch out - may be up 200+.
Anonymous | 03.17.08 - 3:44 pm | #

Average Joe writes:
Certainly the bulls should be dissapointed.

If they thought there was some serious value out there, they would have loved to have a day to buy 4-5% lower than this.
Average Joe | 03.17.08 - 3:45 pm | #

Bucky writes:
that's right, a Lehman is not a Bear. Lehmans are only found naturally in Madagascar and some smaller surrounding islands. They tend to be arboreal, and thus spend most of the time high in the canopy, and therefore cannot support heavily leveraged balance sheets. Bears, though typically live in burrows and dens.
Bucky | 03.17.08 - 3:45 pm | #

Anonymous writes:
Huge bear market rally's are the norm are they not?

I just didn't expect one in the face of what I see as devastating news.
Anonymous | 03.17.08 - 3:46 pm | #

energyecon writes:
Hmmm... that surging yen couldn't be providing fuel to the fire...nah...
energyecon | 03.17.08 - 3:46 pm | #

cd writes:
I'm holding my short flank-But the longs are in my face firing shots at me...
cd | 03.17.08 - 3:47 pm | #

snail mail writes:
with 20 minutes go go the market is up 111.
I read this blog yesterday and expected the Depression to hit today.
I don't believe no one, no more.
Everybody is wrong, all the time.
snail mail | 03.17.08 - 3:47 pm | #

FFDIC writes:
Chicago area banks see mounting losses on loans
http://www.chicagotribune.com/ bu...0,2725105.story
Spring Grove bank accepts FDIC C&D order to correct
http://news.postbulletin.com/new...sp?z=7& a=333345
FDIC Propaganda / Albuquerque Journal : Procedures are in place to prevent banks from collapsing? and that means you won't lose all of your money
http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.s...20News/1206560/
FFDIC | 03.17.08 - 3:48 pm | #

Interesting Times writes:
energyecon - exactly. If I were holding YENs, this would be the best time in my life to buy US equities.
Interesting Times | 03.17.08 - 3:48 pm | #

Curlydan writes:
for those considering skf but wondering about its potential, maybe you buy on the dips then sell once you get a decent profit (15%?). This is what I've done because I'm generally afraid to short a large, powerful sector of the economy too long given how the fed is treating financials like a kitty on its lap.

also, for those wondering why the dow is up, it seems to me that the asian markets are a contra-indicator of what happens here. yeah, they still follow us...we're in control ;) (except for one off day in March 07 I believe).
Curlydan | 03.17.08 - 3:48 pm | #

energyecon writes:
See the news blurb about the BSC class action got filed already...wonder how the majority of shareholders vote when that time comes?
energyecon | 03.17.08 - 3:49 pm | #

Anonymous writes:
Snail, many posters had the experience of being baffled at market reaction to the initial phase of the housing downturn.
Anonymous | 03.17.08 - 3:49 pm | #

jg writes:
Irritating, these saves by JPM and the other schmuck members of the PPT/I-banking cabal.

Minor point: I took a good look at JPM's balance sheet this morning. $123B in equity against $1,562B in assets. As of 12/31/07, they held $91B in equities as trading assets.

Given their thin capitalization, no wonder they fight tooth-and-nail to keep the market up. They, literally, have a vested interest. They have little room for failure in their balance sheet.

Schmucks, your days are numbered, and we are counting.
jg | 03.17.08 - 3:50 pm | #

Average Joe writes:
Something doesn't seem right.

If all this cash withdrawl from Bear was due to a false self-fulfilling rumor of a liquidity issue, where is the cash withdrawl from the market when asia and europe crashed.

Why isn't the same fear that caused knowledgeable investors to abandon Bear working in the face of a market meltdown.

I doesn't make sense. Either there is fear or there isn't no?
Average Joe | 03.17.08 - 3:50 pm | #

Ministry of Truth writes:
HOLY CRAP!!! Did everyone see Cramer in the Video of the Day at the bottom of the blog?

Why do people listen to him?
Ministry of Truth | 03.17.08 - 3:51 pm | #

Curlydan writes:
angry BSC shareholders are like everyone else in Wall Street today: No one is giving up any of the money that they are holding!

That also means that no one gets any money either since it's all locked down.
Curlydan | 03.17.08 - 3:52 pm | #

Kraut writes:
> snail mail writes:
> with 20 minutes go go the market is up > 111.
> I read this blog yesterday and
> expected the Depression to hit today.
> I don't believe no one, no more.
> Everybody is wrong, all the time.
> snail mail | 03.17.08 - 3:47 pm | #
Should have listened to Sebastian, shouldn't you?
Kraut | 03.17.08 - 3:53 pm | #

Michael writes:
The Federal Reserve and the central banks are now at war with responsible Americans.They are eroding our savings at an alarming rate. I say we fight back and kick up the walking away from our debt traps up a few notches. Let the tsunami of jingle mail begin.
Michael | 03.17.08 - 3:53 pm | #

Anonymous writes:
snail mail writes:
with 20 minutes go go the market is up 111. I read this blog yesterday and expected the Depression to hit today. I don't believe no one, no more. Everybody is wrong, all the time.

Ya, you win some, you lose some. Then again, the shakeout from something this big could take more than one session. There's always tomorrow.
Anonymous | 03.17.08 - 3:54 pm | #

BearChase writes:
Bear: mauled
BearChase | 03.17.08 - 3:54 pm | #

squeezed writes:
The FED is backstopping the market. Short the $ not the market.
squeezed | 03.17.08 - 3:54 pm | #

Anonymous writes:
You also have to remember that most here have exited equities and are staring skyward for that other shoe.
Anonymous | 03.17.08 - 3:56 pm | #

ac writes:

That being said, I'm stunned the market didn't get crushed today.

I ain't. As long as the hedge funds are kept alive asset prices are going to go up and up and up and up.

The short interest doesn't help much either.

Maybe if we start seeing huge withdrawals form stock funds things will fall apart rapidly.

ac | 03.17.08 - 3:56 pm | #

energyecon writes:
ac,

I recall some stat that very little of the activity is retail - I believe on a daily volume basis - how much of the outstanding float is retail still, any idea?
energyecon | 03.17.08 - 3:58 pm | #

Anonymous writes:
Is there a way to track open margin interest?
Anonymous | 03.17.08 - 3:59 pm | #

ac writes:

with 20 minutes go go the market is up 111. I read this blog yesterday and expected the Depression to hit today.

You can still walk across the street to borrow money from the bank and pump it into stocks during a depression.

So long as the dollar doesn't correspond to some amount of real wealth pretty much anything can happen with the markets.

ac | 03.17.08 - 3:59 pm | #

Anonymous writes:
I get it - it's a metaphor

The "Bear" had to be destroyed so that the bulls could reign.
Anonymous | 03.17.08 - 3:59 pm | #

Average Joe writes:
A flat or slowly declining market is devastating to long term investors.

This market is doing no favors for the average joe.

Imagine a straight line downward from Nasdaq 5000 in '01 to Nasdaq 2200 today....for seven years absolutely no one would have made money buying or holding the Nasdaq.

You need big dips. Long term investors getting killed.
Average Joe | 03.17.08 - 3:59 pm | #

ac writes:

I recall some stat that very little of the activity is retail - I believe on a daily volume basis - how much of the outstanding float is retail still, any idea?

I hate to say it but I don't have access to much in the way of high quality information.

I'm just guessing based on what I see happening in the markets and what I've read about the hedge fund industry, etc.

ac | 03.17.08 - 4:01 pm | #

scotty_at_the_helm writes:
I still remain convinced that JPM is out of cash and this is just a synthetic transfer of debt!
scotty_at_the_helm | 03.17.08 - 4:02 pm | #

Average Joe writes:
all these long term "investors" are selling into the close?
Average Joe | 03.17.08 - 4:04 pm | #

energyecon writes:
AJ,

The return of risk appetite!
energyecon | 03.17.08 - 4:05 pm | #

ShortCourage writes:
I'm trying to understand what the article below implies about PUT options and the likelihood of a counterparty not paying up...and what this might do to the value of PUT options (i.e. fear drives people away from buying my PUT options when I want to sell them...)

Any thoughts? Am I reading this correctly? Is there any chance in hell that the writer of options, like Bear Stearns PUTS, for example, might be unable to pay up?

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/ne...JYbU& refer=home

Snippet:
March 17 (Bloomberg) -- MF Global Ltd., the largest broker of exchange-traded futures and options, fell as much as 80 percent in New York trading on speculation clients were withdrawing cash. The company said its funding was ``sufficient.''
ShortCourage | 03.17.08 - 4:05 pm | #

Geoff writes:
Curly Dan knows how to play it. You should have been buying SKF last week, and selling it at the market open today before it did its usual retreat. That's the only way to really make a LOT of money on SKF. Buy it low, get your 10% or so, get out, wait, rinse, repeat. Just check out the daily volatility on days like today (post major news announcement.)
Geoff | 03.17.08 - 4:05 pm | #

Anonymous writes:
Strange spike on BB...Someone bid $2795 for LEH?
Anonymous | 03.17.08 - 4:05 pm | #

s writes:
cnbc: jamie dimon the banker of the decade. Give my gardener a fed guarantee and he would be the banker of the millenium. Wattage would be insulted.
s | 03.17.08 - 4:06 pm | #

Anonymous writes:
Friday showed patience pays, I held those BSC PUTs up and down for a while but got paid big time. I will load up puts after fed cuts.
Anonymous | 03.17.08 - 4:06 pm | #

Yossarian writes:
I agree with squeezed. Your plays are now in foreign exchange. Stocks are too gamed, unless you're a daily, keyed-in trader.
To his credit, O-Joe did say markets would end green today.
I tell my students, you almost always learn more from someone you disagree with.
Yossarian | 03.17.08 - 4:07 pm | #

scotty_at_the_helm writes:
Re: Either there is fear or there isn't no?

Oui!, it seems odd to have a panic, where The fed had to help get this deal done before japan opened and then to contain the market today. All very synthetic manipulation which helps to further establish decay and falsified valuations, which in the long run will cause the tsunmai to come back to shore with greater punch, later!

I say you let the market fall and let equilibrium kick in later, and at that point, long term investors jump in from the sidelines; as it is, The Fed illusion adds to the chaos and they are retards!
scotty_at_the_helm | 03.17.08 - 4:08 pm | #

Average Joe writes:
Good call O-Joe.

color me surprised, and wrong.
Average Joe | 03.17.08 - 4:08 pm | #

ShortCourage writes:
Yossarian writes: To his credit, O-Joe did say markets would end green today.

Sorry, but I wouldn't call the DOW a good indicator of "the markets". Try looking at the S&P, the NASDAQ and the Russell indices.
ShortCourage | 03.17.08 - 4:11 pm | #

Spigot writes:
So I guess that's why South East Asia's biggest bank just pushed them off a cliff??

http://www.inmoneytoday.com/2008...n-pre-market-2/
Spigot | 03.17.08 - 4:13 pm | #

Anonymous writes:
"The fed had to help get this deal done before japan opened and then to contain the market today."

That's just it. Based on the Feds action it indicates the markets are extremely fragile. Based on the close today, it appears they are not.

The foreign money does make sense to me. I was buying Canadian securities at 76 cents on the dollar two years ago.
Anonymous | 03.17.08 - 4:13 pm | #

Anonymous writes:
The markets ended in the green today?!
What are you guys talking about.
Other than the Dow being up which was 100% related to JPm it was a bad day for stocks.
Take JPM out of the Dow and it was a bad day for JPM.
Anonymous | 03.17.08 - 4:14 pm | #

Anonymous writes:
Could one say that the green DOW is the quiet eye of a global shitstorm?
Anonymous | 03.17.08 - 4:15 pm | #

scotty_at_the_helm writes:
More bullshit and lies:

Paulson declined to answer a question about the weakening dollar and whether the U.S. government would intervene in currency markets to support it.

"I'm not going to speculate on hypotheticals about intervention," Paulson said. "I will just again say to you what you've heard me say before: We have a strong-dollar policy. It's very much in our nation's interest. Our economy has ups and downs."
scotty_at_the_helm | 03.17.08 - 4:17 pm | #

will writes:
Bad news v. expectations of a rate cut in 2 days = flat market, after the cut we will see a sell off and dow will stay below 12000, my guess for the rest of the year.

The fed is stuck markets have priced in 1% and when they get it they will have nothing further to rally on, if fed gives more than 1% then they look like they are panicked and markets will fall. Fed rapidly running out of ammo and getting less bang for thier bucks.
will | 03.17.08 - 4:18 pm | #

scotty_at_the_helm writes:
Crap:

Paulson said the orderly function of U.S. financial markets was a priority and it was better to arrange the takeover of Bear Stearns than to have the investment firm, the fifth largest in the United States, file for bankruptcy.

yes, by all means, dont let bear fail, or let bear fall below $2.....what a retard!
scotty_at_the_helm | 03.17.08 - 4:20 pm | #

Billy Shears writes:
S&P is down 0.90% and the Nasdaq is down 1.60%. And the Dow lost 80 points in the last half hour.

I agree with previous poster, after the rate cut tomorrow, look out. The fed is using up their rate cuts fast, and the recession has only begun.
Billy Shears | 03.17.08 - 4:21 pm | #

KC writes:
Its unbelievable that DOW closed in green.

The world market collapsed becuase of BS and US, where the mess originated, closed in green......

Kudos to plunge protection team.
KC | 03.17.08 - 4:23 pm | #

jg writes:
My feelings are hurt: why didn't the PPT keep the S&P 500 from closing 'red'? Why do they pay great attention to the Dow and not my S&P 500?

Schmucks.

Good to see SDS close up again.

I'll have the tally in 20 minutes, but it looks like another strong near-record effort by the I-banking cabal in the S&P 500 futures market today.
jg | 03.17.08 - 4:23 pm | #

energyecon writes:
Market is not healthy - look at internals - NYSE 52 week high/low and adv/decl...
energyecon | 03.17.08 - 4:24 pm | #

Anonymous writes:
we'll have a 500 pt down day when no one expects it
today was too easy and too expected therefore the short covering killed any huge selloff
Anonymous | 03.17.08 - 4:26 pm | #

Greg writes:
Hmm, Forex really is the way to go, considering that we're getting 100-bps tomorrow.

My new question is this:

When our once-proud currency is lined up in front of Uncle Ben and Hank's firing squad tomorrow, does he even get a blindfold and a cigarette?

Or are those that now out of his price range?
Greg | 03.17.08 - 4:27 pm | #

Anonymous writes:
Its hard to believe the bears stayed up all night for today.
Anonymous | 03.17.08 - 4:31 pm | #

scotty_at_the_helm writes:
The Fed is trying to retain a reputation, to enhance the image and perception that the market is resilient and strong, while manipulating the yield curve to make the patient appear ready and able to walk away from leukemia, AIDS and pneumonia . The market looks great in that new window dressing, but behind closed doors, the doctors know the reality of death is upon us!
scotty_at_the_helm | 03.17.08 - 4:31 pm | #

REBear writes:
Between GS, LEH and MS who will 'surprise' the market most?
REBear | 03.17.08 - 4:35 pm | #

scotty_at_the_helm writes:
**

Re: Paulson declined to answer a question about the weakening dollar and whether the U.S. government would intervene in currency markets to support it.

I'm VERY tired of these pussy reporters, these sophomoric and retarded journalism buffoons liberally tossing out timid questions to his Highness Paulson or Uncle Ben, shyly wondering in low voices something about the weakening dollar -- and then treating this asshole like he needs respect, the Treasury Secretary needs to respond to hardcore serious, brutal questions as to what he is doing and why! We dont need a circus with bullshit questions, which get no reply, we need a God damn leader that has credibility!
scotty_at_the_helm | 03.17.08 - 4:39 pm | #

Barley writes:
Oh scotty_at_the_helm please tell us how you really feel.
Barley | 03.17.08 - 4:40 pm | #

doom writes:
Today being a "good day in the market" is the equivalent of Bush's "Mission Accomplished".

The war is just beginning.
doom | 03.17.08 - 4:43 pm | #

Ziggurat writes:
As far as BSC shares, remember that JPM booked $6 billion in transaction costs, including litigation.

They could end up paying out $10/share for another billion and people might be happy.

I don't know if they could just do a settlement or will have to give most of it to the lawyers. I can't really see it getting done without the lawyers.

People that covered this morning @ $3 did the right thing.
Ziggurat | 03.17.08 - 4:43 pm | #

scotty_at_the_helm writes:
Barley,

I'm holding back about The Pension Reform Act and the way which Department Of Labor has placed over 91 million participants, including workers and retirees, in private pension plans which hold more than $4.3 trillion in assets -- at risk, by granting underwriters like Bear Stearns exemptions from prohibited actions.....blah, blah.....risk, hedge funds.....CDOs.......crosstrading.......exemptions ..your money....Bush....PPA.....The Wall Street Journal didn't want to help on a story about......

Believe me, I'm pissed!
scotty_at_the_helm | 03.17.08 - 4:45 pm | #

Alec writes:
"I still remain convinced that JPM is out of cash and this is just a synthetic transfer of debt!
scotty_at_the_helm"

You actually believe that yet bandy about a word like retard?
Alec | 03.17.08 - 4:47 pm | #

scotty_at_the_helm writes:
Sorry, that was an old fast link: better:

radford P. Campbell was confirmed by the United States Senate as the Assistant Secretary of Labor for the Employee Benefits Security Administration, which oversees more than 700,000 covered retirement plans, approximately 2.5 million covered health plans, and similar numbers of other welfare benefit plans, such as those providing life or disability insurance. The employee benefit plans under EBSAís jurisdiction hold about $5.6 trillion in assets and cover approximately 150 million Americans. He is responsible for the administration and enforcement of Title I of the Employee Retirement Income Security Act of 1974 (ERISA).

What's a few trillion, when you hedge funds control your pensions?
scotty_at_the_helm | 03.17.08 - 4:50 pm | #

cd writes:
I think Scotty has some valid points!
He's just saying them out loud, some of us say it without moving our lips....Everyone dies but not everyone lives..
cd | 03.17.08 - 4:51 pm | #

scotty_at_the_helm writes:
Thanks cd, regardless if I'm scotty or doc, I think it is important to engage the people that have brought about the demise of America. I think I'm I'm a better patriot than any slob on wall street, including the low IQ journalism twits that are paid to pump bullshit!
scotty_at_the_helm | 03.17.08 - 4:54 pm | #

plschwartz writes:
Why should Bernanke shove a whole 1% tomorrow? 'Cause all the players expect it? It is a lot of ammo to waste.

I do not think that he needs be tied to the traditional format of monthly meetings (At least as long as he gets the other governors to keep their cell phones on). So it need not be tomorrow.
What emergency is there now that a 1% rate cut is the answer.

Etc.
.
I think he has been quite creative up to now. And he has some momentum going . I would guess .50 or even .25 and a something else
plschwartz | 03.17.08 - 4:55 pm | #

newB writes:
Pardon my ignorance, and I apologize if this has been addressed somewhere else - but it looks to my untrained eyes that there was a huge could last-minute volume spike on the Dow? Could someone set me straight on this? TIA.
newB | 03.17.08 - 4:57 pm | #

newB writes:
ooops - "huge last-minute volume spike" -
newB | 03.17.08 - 4:58 pm | #

Alec writes:
".The Wall Street Journal didn't want to help on a story about......

Believe me, I'm pissed!
scotty_at_the_helm |"

No, you're just a dolt.

You haven't discovered the holy grail, just things that have already been discussed here months ago in reeal time; your "discoveries" should be forwarded to Readers' Digest or Highlights for children, not the WSJ.

Waste bandwidth and time on your own blog and spare us the heretofore non-existent outrage.
Alec | 03.17.08 - 5:04 pm | #

Michael writes:
I'm beginning to lose confidence in the PPT. Days like this they used to be able to do green across the board. Now they can only do the DOW? I am very disappointed in them.
Michael | 03.17.08 - 5:07 pm | #

SweetHomeKilla writes:
"I don't believe in conspiracy theories"

Think about that statement, it makes no sense. Everyone knows that conspiracy theories exist.

What he probably meant was, "I don't believe any conspiracy theories."

Which would actually make a little sense, but would still be a stupid statement.

The creation of the federal reserve was a conspiracy, as was the patriot act, and so was 9/11(no matter which theory you believe, there was surely a conspiracy involved).

The PPT does exist and has the power to buy and sell equities, that is public knowledge. It's anyones guess whether or not they actually are doing so on a daily basis.

Many people seem to think they are reasonable, but are really extremely closed minded and ignorant.
SweetHomeKilla | 03.17.08 - 5:08 pm | #

TradingStats writes:
People that covered this morning @ $3 did the right thing.
Ziggurat

Well said...clearly...

why leave 25-50$ bucks hanging open over $1-2.
TradingStats | 03.17.08 - 5:11 pm | #

SweetHomeKilla writes:
Regarding George Washington's face on the FRN being an insult, I agree.

Even more insulting though is Andrew Jackson on the $20 FRN. He dedicated his entire reputation on ending the central bank, and cared so much about it that had written on his tombstone "I killed the bank". His picture on the $20 FRN is symbolism saying "in your face, we won".
SweetHomeKilla | 03.17.08 - 5:14 pm | #

plschwartz writes:
SHK
Boy your roots go deep about national banks don't they.
I think tho that they creators of the Fed were aware of this and as it says on its website, it is a unique combination of centralism and regionalism.

BTW did you object to GW and AJ being on Silver Certificates?
plschwartz | 03.17.08 - 5:19 pm | #

homedad43 writes:
And in celebration of the upcoming tournament, Dick Vitale will take over the CNBC hosting duties in the last two hours of each trading day next week.
homedad43 | 03.17.08 - 5:23 pm | #

scotty_at_the_helm writes:
Did we just get a boat load of NAR pumpers here or what?
scotty_at_the_helm | 03.17.08 - 5:29 pm | #

Anonymous writes:
"cnbc: jamie dimon the banker of the decade."

And just imagine, he beat out Robert Rubin, Sandy Weill, Chuck Prince and Stan O'Neal to earn that luminous title.

Enough said?
Anonymous | 03.17.08 - 5:30 pm | #

zIRPY THE pINHEAD writes:
didnt hear you mayo, could you scream a little louder please? :)
zIRPY THE pINHEAD | 03.17.08 - 5:33 pm | #

Anonymous writes:
"Market is not healthy - look at internals - NYSE 52 week high/low and adv/decl...
energyecon"

Holy Shit, Scatman!!

Over 19% of the NYSE hit new lows today.

That is very bad, very, very bad!
Anonymous | 03.17.08 - 5:36 pm | #

Yalt writes:
Personally, I think there's a conspiracy out there devoted to inventing and spreading outlandish conspiracy theories in an attempt to discredit the whole notion of conspiracies.
Yalt | 03.17.08 - 5:38 pm | #

Anonymous writes:
" I think I'm I'm a better patriot than any slob on wall street, including the low IQ journalism twits that are paid to pump bullshit!
scotty_at_the_helm"

I like you scotty, and I agree with you completely.
Anonymous | 03.17.08 - 5:40 pm | #

Marcus Aurelius writes:
On the one hand, you have your journalists, such as Walter Cronkite. On the other hand, you have your shit pumps, such as what we see on TV today.
Marcus Aurelius | 03.17.08 - 5:50 pm | #

Sam writes:
Speaking of the media:

How to Stop Stress; Your Gender and Age Can Affect the Type of Headaches You Get; Hunting Down an Illness; Inspiration to Get off the Couch

Aired March 1, 2008 - 08:30 ET

The first thing that happens is that they want to sell stocks willie nilly. I can't tell you how many e-mails I'm getting from folks, young folks who want to get out of the stock market right now. How crazy is that? They've got lots of time to plan for the future, but they want to sell stocks. Don't do it.

Look, leave your portfolio alone for a little while. Don't check your stocks every day. You know, have a little patience You got to sit back and think. And then get a plan. Think about putting a plan in place, because this will relax you a little bit. Maybe you go out, you find a financial adviser.

http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANS...01/ hcsg.01.html
Sam | 03.17.08 - 6:10 pm | #

scotty_at_the_helm writes:
Re: I like you scotty, and I agree with you completely.
Anonymous | 03.17.08 - 5:40 pm

No one ever liked Doc Holiday, et al, so I'll take that as a good thing, thanks. America needs to wake up and get pissed at these financial terrorists in Washington & on wall street!
scotty_at_the_helm | 03.17.08 - 6:18 pm | #

Anonymous writes:
Scotty,

Even if people agree with you, it gets extremely tiring watching someone pontificate.

If you want to share your impressions with a wider audience write an op-ed or start your own blog.

This is not the place for what you're trying to accomplish.
Anonymous | 03.17.08 - 7:21 pm | #

former NewYourker writes:
Anonymous writes:
Scotty,

Even if people agree with you, it gets extremely tiring watching someone pontificate.

If you want to share your impressions with a wider audience write an op-ed or start your own blog.

This is not the place for what you're trying to accomplish.

Anon: what exactly is being accomplished here?
former NewYourker | 03.17.08 - 10:34 pm | #

rj writes:
"When I went into work this morning I got a few comments about Bear, but concern really doesn't seem on their radar. It's just another day...."

I talked about it some and others knew about it. We were all just in a state of shock on the amount of writedown for the shareholders.
rj | 03.17.08 - 11:51 pm | #

PW writes:
Scotty is only speaking what everyone is thinking...
PW | 03.18.08 - 2:15 am | #

Alec writes:
"Anon: what exactly is being accomplished here?
former NewYourker | 03.17.08 - 10:34 pm | "p

Sock puppetry and the patting of one's own back by DocWheatScottyDr. woo??
Alec | 03.18.08 - 5:31 am | #

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