CRead writes:
1st!
CRead | 03.18.08 - 5:43 pm | #

Shnaps writes:
Unfirst.
Shnaps | Homepage | 03.18.08 - 5:43 pm | #

andy in NZ writes:
I think this is good news!?

50% off, thats gotta hurt if you bough in the same street or development in 2007. These guys must be destroying their brand with these sales!
andy in NZ | 03.18.08 - 5:47 pm | #

bacon dreamz writes:
0.5st! (50% off)
bacon dreamz | 03.18.08 - 5:48 pm | #

bacon dreamz writes:
by which i mean 50% off of first, but i wasn't even close to first, so it makes no sense. ok, i'm going back to work now...
bacon dreamz | 03.18.08 - 5:50 pm | #

REBear writes:
Carlyle Capital granted court OK for compulsory liquidation
REBear | 03.18.08 - 5:50 pm | #

Fester writes:
At least they didn't say "up to 50% off or more!" (Greater-than-or-less-than-or-equal-to)
Fester | 03.18.08 - 5:52 pm | #

TulsaTime writes:
And what a great time it is for buying a home, rates are great and home selection is at an all time high! So what are YOU waiting for?!?

the preceding message was brought to you by an agent who is off his meds and really needs to make a sale for chist sake and the car payments are past due and the bank is calling about the credit line on that sure-thing development out at the golf course SO BUY A FRICKIN HOUSE ALREADY
TulsaTime | 03.18.08 - 5:53 pm | #

CRead writes:
T.T. - If it makes you feel any better, if I lived in (or was moving to ) Tulsa, I would buy a house from you. But then again I might just be in a good mood cause I was ... 1st!
(I didn't think things had slowed down too much in Tulsa(no big run-up in prices etc)?)
CRead | 03.18.08 - 6:00 pm | #

Barley writes:
O/T

The UK will undoubtly be influenced by the economic down draft at financials:

Northern Rock, plans to slash a third of jobs at the stricken lender in an attempt to repay its £25bn taxpayer loan within three years.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money.../ bcnrock118.xml

But staff within Bear's London office expect between 30pc and 40pc of them will be asked to leave. Sources in New York said the global number could be as high as 50pc

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money...8/ cnbear118.xml
Barley | 03.18.08 - 6:07 pm | #

X writes:
Here is something great from the Examiner that is applicable today-

http://www.examiner.com/a- 128508...ats_itself.html
X | Homepage | 03.18.08 - 6:09 pm | #

Barley writes:
NEW YORK (Associated Press) - Standard & Poor's Ratings Services cut its rating on Fremont General Corp. after the bank failed to pay the interest on some of its bonds.

The Brea, Calif.-based company said this week it did not make $6.6 million in interest payments on $169 million in bonds.

S&P said this will put the company in default. The ratings agency downgraded Fremont to "D" from "CC," implying the company is in default
Barley | 03.18.08 - 6:09 pm | #

Paul writes:
This is good. Stop building homes and cut prices. Maybe I will be able to afford a house someday.
Paul | 03.18.08 - 6:14 pm | #

david_in_ct writes:
Just in case our hosts forget to keep us updated on spreads:
http://www.markit.com/informatio...dices/ cmbx.html
david_in_ct | 03.18.08 - 6:15 pm | #

jjmckim writes:
CR,

If already cancelled homes that are "re-purchased" are not counted as sales, isn't it likely that new home sales are higher than reported.

aren't builders desperately trying to sell their homes that have been cancelled on? These counted as sales the first time, but if they are then bought after being cancelled, they are not counted. so instead of sales being at a 600k annual rate, they could be at a 700k annual rate.
jjmckim | 03.18.08 - 6:21 pm | #

Matt writes:
Paul, I'm with you. Let em slide, slide slide slide slide.

Sidenote, shouldn't Jas Jain be tearing shit up in here by now?
Matt | 03.18.08 - 6:22 pm | #

Barley writes:
OMG - You'al gotta got to this guys web page and see the BBC broadcast (btyb Youtube) of the US housing mess... http://market-ticker.denninger.net/
Barley | 03.18.08 - 6:23 pm | #

jim writes:
Always translate "up to" as "no more than." So "Up to 50% off" means "No more than 50% off."
jim | Homepage | 03.18.08 - 6:23 pm | #

4822 writes:
Paradise for sale in Costa Rica:

http://www.wamcr.com/promo-cx.html

According to Costa Rica’s Central Bank, in the first three months of 2007, mostly American foreign investors bought at least $192 million worth of property, largely in the provinces of Guanacaste and Puntarenas. That is nearly triple the $70 million registered in the same period in 2006.

Discover why the slumping market in the United States is driving intelligent investors to Costa Rica.

The housing market in the United States has fallen and investors and financial institutions are coming to Costa Rica. According to bank officials “This is not a prediction, it’s a fact.”

LOTS STARTING AT $79,000 USD
4822 | 03.18.08 - 6:25 pm | #

Barley writes:
4822 writes:
Paradise for sale in Costa Rica

Probably true. Good tax arrangements. But add security into you household budget and the odd cash slip for pretend traffic violations et al
Barley | 03.18.08 - 6:28 pm | #

REBear writes:
SEC Opens Bear Stearns Stock Manipulation Inquiry

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/ne...LhZw& refer=home
REBear | 03.18.08 - 6:29 pm | #

4822 writes:
SEC Opens Bear Stearns Stock Manipulation Inquiry

interesting...left hand (SEC) not talking to right hand (BB)?
4822 | 03.18.08 - 6:34 pm | #

Tanta writes:
Sorry I've been offline today . . . I've been working on a new mortgage product, the UnARMed. It has an UnPayment Penalty, which is tricky, but then again the UnQualifying Rate is certainly competitive.

Actually, I spent all day reading the 96-page proposal the only HUD we have just released for changing RESPA and the GFE and the HUD-1 Settlementment Statement and I am both mind-numbed and crabby. If I decide I hate you people enough I'll write a big long post about RESPA disclosures.
Tanta | 03.18.08 - 6:35 pm | #

4822 writes:
BoE's King cancels trip to West Midlands to monitor events in London

| 18 Mar 2008 | 07:23 AM ET

LONDON (Thomson Financial) - The Bank of England's governor Mervyn King has cancelled a working visit the West Midlands to "monitor events in London", a central bank spokesman said.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/23687244/
4822 | 03.18.08 - 6:38 pm | #

rc writes:
Here is the reason the Fed is in survival mode. The next shoe is dropping now!


http://tinyurl.com/2vrdzk
rc | 03.18.08 - 6:45 pm | #

Scotto writes:
CR said:

Also note that most condominiums are not included in new home inventory (or new home sales) from the Census Bureau. Areas with significant condominium developments probably have higher levels of inventory.


wow, I would think in some areas this factor could mean that the inventory is understated by.. half?
Scotto | 03.18.08 - 6:46 pm | #

Sebastian writes:
Tanta said: "If I decide I hate you people enough I'll write a big long post about RESPA disclosures."

God knows we deserve it. I'll read the whole thing, twice.:)


S.
Sebastian | 03.18.08 - 6:47 pm | #

Lyndal writes:
Oooh, RESPA disclosures! Go Tanta, go Tanta!
Lyndal | 03.18.08 - 6:49 pm | #

andy in NZ writes:
Tanta, I unDare you!
andy in NZ | 03.18.08 - 6:49 pm | #

ShortCourage writes:
4822,

Geez, your excerpt represents the entire article. Is there more somewhere that I'm missing?
ShortCourage | 03.18.08 - 6:51 pm | #

Chief Debt Officer writes:
I really look forward to seeing builders quarterly reports. Starting projects have been camphor injections for builders as they could borrow short term money from banks. Now they have a lot of inventories as well as huge debts, yet virtually no income. Maybe we'll see some margin calls from banks...
Chief Debt Officer | 03.18.08 - 6:51 pm | #

Portland Refugee writes:
I have two methods of foreplay. 1) To read Reg. Z over and over and 2) Utter the words "Brace Yourself" ....either works like a charm
Portland Refugee | Homepage | 03.18.08 - 6:51 pm | #

4822 writes:
ShortCourage, found this

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx_reports/ cross_markets_data_reaction/ GBP_USD_Could_Break_Below_2_00_1205877430447.html

GBP/USD Could Break Below 2.00 On Wednesday's BOE Meeting Minutes
The GBP/USD recently rallied off of significant support at 1.9960 yesterday, and this level has served as a long-term support/resistance for the pair for the past six months. Meanwhile, the 20-day SMA, which has been a source of short term support, reinforced the level and sent the pound shooting towards resistance at 2.0400. The cable’s momentum was buoyed by a 2.5% CPI print, the highest reading in nine months, which gave support to the BoE’s contention that inflation will break their 3% threshold. A breach of this level is significant because it requires Governor Mervyn King to write a letter of explanation to government officials. Therefore, the MPC will try and avoid this at all costs, which diminishes the possibility of any rate cuts until inflation starts to ease. On the other hand, business leaders have called for further rate reductions to help Britain’s deteriorating housing industry, which has seen prices continue to fall, while the global credit crunch and recent failures of the Carlyle Group and Bear Stearns demonstrates the need for proper liquidity in the market and may become an overriding factor in the BoE’s decision making process. .."
"...
4822 | 03.18.08 - 6:57 pm | #

hiker90 writes:
Tanta,

I've been bad. Please punish me.
hiker90 | 03.18.08 - 6:57 pm | #

eh writes:
UP TO 50% OFF. I'm sure the previous home buyers are excited to see a half off sale.

Yeah, and how many of them will then have negative equity and later turn into walkaways? Banks cut their own throats in the same way: by offering huge discounts to get rid of REO units they force other mortgage holders into negative equity.

Of course a complete picture of the whole housing market must include existing homes in the inventory number.
eh | 03.18.08 - 6:57 pm | #

Ministry of Truth writes:
In Las Vegas DR. Horton has had the "Find The Bottom" sale. No resonable offer refused.
Ministry of Truth | 03.18.08 - 6:59 pm | #

Matthew writes:
I was just going to ask, can someone give a run-down of how this week has impacted the key debt risk measurements? CMBX, etc.? I'm curious to see if the market buying is in any way disconnected from the assessment of risk by bond traders.
Matthew | 03.18.08 - 7:04 pm | #

Elvis writes:
I think having an Unauction is UnMerican. This doesn't help the others in the neighborhood. -- George
Elvis | 03.18.08 - 7:04 pm | #

bacon dreamz writes:
If I decide I hate you people enough I'll write a big long post about RESPA disclosures.

there's no need for that, look at all the good stuff in this new Freddie paper!

Interventions in Mortgage Default: Policies and Practices to Prevent Home Loss and Lower Costs

http://www.freddiemac.com/news/ p...age_default.pdf
bacon dreamz | 03.18.08 - 7:04 pm | #

Someone writes:
Ummm 4822, most of the RE development in Costa Rica, especially in San Jose, has been driven by Americans looking for second homes and vacation homes. Mostly bought with mortgages on US-based homes.

When the overlevered American owners inevitably run into financial trouble, there will be a huge stampede for the exits. And without a robust domestic economy, it'll be only Canadians and maybe the odd European placing bids.
Someone | 03.18.08 - 7:05 pm | #

david_in_ct writes:
X:
re: The tulip mania
one of my kids favorite bed time stories.
david_in_ct | 03.18.08 - 7:06 pm | #

Optimistic Joe writes:
CR,

When do you expect the home builders to have worked thru the excess inventory? Is the end of 2008 a good estimate?

O-Joe
Optimistic Joe | 03.18.08 - 7:11 pm | #

Human writes:
CR - A little O/T, but when the ad at the top of your blog happens to be "Find lower auto insurance Rates in xxxx",with 3 little windows showing the road that we are traveling down, Firefox starts to use about 40 - 80 of the CPU on my dual core machine.
Your other ads are fine.

I presume this is happening to everyone, not sure.

Can someone else look at their Task Manager and pull up CalcRisk a couple of times until they get the Insurance ad.
Maybe you can get someone this?
Thanks
Human | 03.18.08 - 7:15 pm | #

sunsetbeachguy writes:
Costa Rica is over-run with ugly American expats particularly in Guanacaste. For anything remotely close to the ocean the prices were California Coastal prices.

Nicaragua was the next great cheap paradise for the expats.

I was in Nicaragua in 2004. The RE boom was going crazy. The surf tour operator was 50% surf and 50% real estate development.

His nickname was El Diablo Blanco.

There were many, many twenty somethings plunking down lot reservations and many more boomers buying a dozen lots to develop and keep the last one for themselves.

Typical Ponzi scheme down there. They wanted 50-100K for an undeveloped lot with only brackish well water, no utilities and 45 minutes on a rutted dirt road to the nearest telephone or store.

Umm yeah, that is gonna end well.
sunsetbeachguy | 03.18.08 - 7:17 pm | #

sunsetbeachguy writes:
The locals will bleed these ugly Americans dry and send them home.
sunsetbeachguy | 03.18.08 - 7:17 pm | #

Bob Dobbs writes:
Costa Rica and Nicaragua have been touted as havens from the coming great global breakdown for some time by Agora Financial and that lot.

I've been there, and I say, fat chance.
Bob Dobbs | Homepage | 03.18.08 - 7:26 pm | #

4shzl writes:
I have two methods of foreplay. 1) To read Reg. Z over and over and 2) Utter the words "Brace Yourself" ....either works like a charm
Portland Refugee

LOL!
4shzl | 03.18.08 - 7:27 pm | #

Yossarian writes:
"When do you expect the home builders to have worked thru the excess inventory? Is the end of 2008 a good estimate?" - O-Joe

See, now this is why in the larger picture, I think you're just pulling our collective legs.

No one could possibly be asking that with a straight face.
Yossarian | 03.18.08 - 7:31 pm | #

Elvis writes:
Just don't pull my leg of lamb.
Elvis | 03.18.08 - 7:32 pm | #

bumble writes:
Can someone else look at their Task Manager and pull up CalcRisk a couple of times until they get the Insurance ad.

Yes. I had the same problem.

Blocked images & cookies from *.tribalfusion.com, and this nasty ad does not show up again for me.
bumble | 03.18.08 - 7:40 pm | #

Seraphine writes:
If you see a 50% off housing sale, that means housing has been overvalued.
Now that the Fed has lowered interest rates, the "excess" inventory will theoretically sell a lot faster.
Seraphine | Homepage | 03.18.08 - 7:40 pm | #

JJL writes:
From Bloomberg:

!For Immediate Release!
Federal Reserve Rejects Certain Assets for Use in the TSLF

The Federal Reserve has issued guidelines on the types and quality of assets that can be exchanged at the months end TSLF. To answer repeated queries from participating banks, the following is a list of non qualifying assets:

-Horses with horns glued to their head (not a true unicorn; true unicorns ARE accepted)
-Charmin toilet paper, unscented only
-Enron preffered stock certificates
-Pet Rocks
-Cabbage patch kids
-Ishtar special edition DVD's
-E.T. the Extraterrestrial Atari 2600 video game cartridges
-Free tanning Booth vouchers (we mean it Mr. Mozillo!)

Please contact your local Federal Reserve Branch bank for more information.
JJL | Homepage | 03.18.08 - 7:41 pm | #

AlanY writes:
There's a group of guys in my office who've been speculating in Costa Rican property. It seems nuts to me... a repeat of the housing bubble with less information and a foreign legal system and regulatory framework... but they claim they've done very well so far. Is it really that attractive a place for foreigners to retire?
AlanY | 03.18.08 - 7:45 pm | #

Misean writes:
AlanY,

"a repeat of the housing bubble with less information and a foreign legal system and regulatory framework"

Less information...pasha...Wall Street rules at opaqueness. I find it hard to believe the other two any worse.

;)

Cheers,
Misean | 03.18.08 - 7:48 pm | #

barely writes:
david_in_ct, Just curious - DO you think we're in a bear market for equities?
barely | 03.18.08 - 7:48 pm | #

Marcus Aurelius writes:
Never live in a country where among the various penalties for foreclosure and/or bankruptcy, you find the phrases: "fire ant hill" and/or "honey pot", used together or in close proximity.
Marcus Aurelius | 03.18.08 - 7:53 pm | #

Nemo writes:
Yossarian --

No one could possibly be asking that with a straight face.

While Sebastian is probably for real, O-Joe is obviously a kid just having fun.

I can see how someone could find themselves funny the first or second time. The thousandth time, however... That I do not understand. But I have seen this pathology before, all the way back to USENET days.

Some people never tire of telling the same joke.
Nemo | Homepage | 03.18.08 - 7:56 pm | #

probert writes:
DON'T




FEED



THE



TROLL
probert | 03.18.08 - 8:02 pm | #

RW writes:
Tend to agree that months of supply in housing is not going to change much in the current economic environment, never mind the sales stunts. The biggest problem I had was imagining who the new buyers would be, those who: couldn't get financing before, were upside down on their current home, had speculated but were either still pinned under their previous acquisitions or glad to have gotten out in time? Who?

But maybe my imagination is just not that good.

OT: human, I get the same result in FireFox, big spikes from 20% to 80% of processor time every second or so with another big spike memory pages per second every 6 or 7 seconds. Get similar action in IE but much lower intensity -- roughly between 2% and 20% but with occasional larger spikes to 60% -- so I suspect it may be the way FireFox is interacting with the Flash player plugin's cache.
RW | 03.18.08 - 8:03 pm | #

Sniglet writes:
Just a thought about speculation in general: if you understand the investment then you aren't speculating.
Sniglet | 03.18.08 - 8:07 pm | #

Cal writes:
Fannie, Freddie and regulator plan announcement

Press conference scheduled amid speculation on capital requirements

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/...& siteid=yahoomy

Fannie/Freddie getting some room to roam. Should help spreads.
Cal | Homepage | 03.18.08 - 8:08 pm | #

Weather Helm writes:
I should make a 75% off offer to DR Horton just to be a dick. :)
Weather Helm | 03.18.08 - 8:12 pm | #

tj & the bear writes:
Not to be sarcastic... okay, yes, to be totally sarcastic (since I can't help myself)...

I'm SURE all those people newly subject to layoffs, buyouts, etc. are all rushing out to buy new homes. Retail Therapy writ large.

Perhaps the HBs can target BSC employees in their next advertising blitz. Tell'em the Fed has their back.

tj & the bear | 03.18.08 - 8:15 pm | #

Bob Dobbs writes:
"There's a group of guys in my office who've been speculating in Costa Rican property. It seems nuts to me... Is it really that attractive a place for foreigners to retire?"

Ten years ago, maybe, but even then developers were trying to get $50K or $100K or more for "choice" lots on undeveloped peninsulas that were a 90-minute ferry ride and an hour drive down bad roads from anything resembling bright lights. (Unless you wanted to fly in on a Russian-made puddle-jumper).

These days...I'd say they just haven't run out of "greater fools" yet.
Bob Dobbs | Homepage | 03.18.08 - 8:15 pm | #

Bits_of_Real_Panther writes:
I can't help but muse that the easiest path to home affordability is to get a better job
Bits_of_Real_Panther | 03.18.08 - 8:21 pm | #

Weather Helm writes:
Anyone here think the Teflon (R) has finally been scraped of the Jim Cramer machine? A video of him from a week or so ago is going around wherein a caller (who said he had concerns of liquidity at BSC) asks if he should sell his BSC stock. Cramer replied basically "no way don't do anything foolish like selling your Bear Stearns stock, just hold onto it."

Sad. So sad.

I'd say "don't do anything foolish like listen to Jim Cramer"!
Weather Helm | 03.18.08 - 8:22 pm | #

Mike S writes:
Redfin lists almost a dozen houses in Horton's Wildomar complex as REO's/Short sellers. The only recent sale at ~$92/sqft.

With Horton selling off inventory below REO prices (i.e., under $100/sqft), that must be one happy little slice of SoCal paradise.
Mike S | 03.18.08 - 8:26 pm | #

--Andrew writes:
The 50% haircut puts me in mind of what dryfly has said about watching inventory and cashflow in downturns. I'd say they are trying to radically downsize and reduce their cashflow needs/fixed costs by selling off the inventory they have at firesale prices. I would guess that Horton is also cutting subs and laying off employee's as fast as they can to reduce their burn rate. (I'd hate to have be the homeowner calling them to fix a warranty defect later.)

Another possibility here is dryfly's concept of "mining the factory", pulling wealth out of the business by selling below cost for as long as you can (or until the inventory and cash on hand runs out) just to keep the doors open.

Either way, I'd say it's "Survivor, Homebuilder-style" and everyone is trying to keep from being the next one voted off the island.
--Andrew | 03.18.08 - 8:27 pm | #

Scramjetman writes:
Weather Info: my recollection is that Jim Cramer's question was NOT about a stockholder but about somebody that had investments being traded by Bear Stearns. Cramer told him that those securities are insured, which I believe is correct, and therefore is a completly different case from a stockholder. Could you please provide a LINK to the supposed video, so that we can settle who is correct -whether the question was from a shareholder or from somebody that had investments being traded by Bear?
Scramjetman | 03.18.08 - 8:30 pm | #

homedad43 writes:
tj and ipodius:

I had to go offline after the last thread and would like to verify that I get the inflation v price inflation correct.

You're right. Semantics matter.

So if I understand things correctly, it would be thus:

Credit and wealth are being destroyed at a particular level and the Fed is acting to throw in as much liquidity as possible to replace. Hence, there is real deflation yet nominal price inflation masking it. At some level, the liquidity - represented by price inflation - is overrun by the asset deflation (not asset inflation) and THEN prices move in conjunction with the asset deflation (price deflation as well).

Would that be a correct conclusion?

I appreciate your earlier comments regarding this, but it was challenging.

Thanks
homedad43 | 03.18.08 - 8:32 pm | #

Anonymous writes:
"I'm sure the previous home buyers are excited to see a half off sale."

Think Beanie Babies.
Anonymous | 03.18.08 - 8:36 pm | #

Tue736pm writes:
There must be two Cramer videos out there, one mentioning stock and other Bear accounts. Not to defend him, but if he said "no, don't pull out" regarding the accounts, that would be accurate, I think.

He talks fast and some viewers (like me) are easily confused. Best not to watch any more.
Tue736pm | 03.18.08 - 8:43 pm | #

Joe Six Pack writes:
I tell you Cousins, this insider manipulation crap has gotta go. My 401s and mutual funds can't handle any more. I go to bonds and lose money, I go to stocks and lose money. Real estate? Out. So too CDs and savings accounts. A declining buck just doesn't buy much in Costa Rica. What is Joe supposed to do? I thought the idea was to save money, but Cousins I'm at the point where I may as well take the penalty and cash things in. Then I can take what's left over and retire in Hawaii. I can eat poi and sleep on The Bus. If I'm going to be broke it may as well be on the North Shore. Mahalo.
Joe Six Pack | 03.18.08 - 8:46 pm | #

just some dumb guy writes:
Jas,

Now , not that you needed it, but i defended you earlier as you critasized CR for not using Census data etc...

now he has....

ummm hmmm...
just some dumb guy | 03.18.08 - 8:52 pm | #

FFDIC writes:
The Bankers Panic of 2008. How should the Congress and the next president be resopnding? (Good suggestions here)
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/ jo...08_b_92031.html
FFDIC | 03.18.08 - 8:54 pm | #

brokeback benny writes:
CR,

Anybody do any research on what these homes were selling for say...6 months ago?

I would bet this so called 50% ends up being 10-20%.
brokeback benny | 03.18.08 - 9:02 pm | #

Weather Helm writes:
Scramjetman: the video was played on Faux News actually. But it had the quality of a youtube style video. (Faux News seemed quite happy to pounce on dissing CNBC.) I don't have a link but I'm sure it's out there.

IIRC, it was a Mad Money show clip, and he was responding to a letter asking him about the stock. I understood that he was talking about equity shares, but I could be wrong. Unfortunately I'm on business travel, so I don't have the luxury of my MythTV rewind function at home. Plus, my laptop's audio is out. :(

It'd be nice if someone had the link and could check, though...
Weather Helm | 03.18.08 - 9:03 pm | #

Weather Helm writes:
Scramjetman:

You might be correct, from third person accounts I can find. Unfortunately, I'd have to look at a transcript since my laptop has no audio. But apparently, his recommendation included statements like "Bear Stearns is fine" and "Bear Stearns is not having a liquidity problem".

Of course, I've found others saying that he was most definitely talking about the stock...
Weather Helm | 03.18.08 - 9:13 pm | #

4822 writes:
"I would bet this so called 50% ends up being 10-20%."

Wonder how many of the apparent potential buyers at the events are shills. If property is sold, do the realtors split the commission 10 ways?
4822 | 03.18.08 - 9:24 pm | #

Owner Earnings writes:
Optimistic Joe, whether u were serious or not, your question of when the housing will bottom made me think. With at least an extra 3 months supply and builders still building more then they are selling that it would take forever. That said it's obviously not going to be by the end of 2008. Maybe 2009?
Owner Earnings | Homepage | 03.18.08 - 9:31 pm | #

slid writes:
The Kramer clip is also played during the Jon Stewart Daily show segment "broken arrow: crash in the chartland" that someone posted in an early thread. I've got a toddler in the bathtub, will try to find clip in a second.
slid | 03.18.08 - 9:33 pm | #

Misean writes:
OT, but was asked for.

UK news:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/ money...meltdown818.xml

The financial crisis engulfing the British economy has lurched to a new low as £51 billion was wiped off the value of the country's top companies yesterday.On a chaotic day in the City, the pound suffered its worst one-day fall since Black Wednesday in 1992 amidst fears of a growing global recession.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/ Ar...rticle4044.html

UK Mortgage and Commercial Banks Decimated by Bear Stearns Bust

Cheers,
Misean | 03.18.08 - 9:33 pm | #

Dickeylee writes:
Who really loves ya man! Here's a sure-fire way to find out once and for all who really really loves you the most. See, you take your wife and your dog and lock them both up in the trunk of your car. Then, after an hour or so, let them out. Who's the happiest to see you? Now you know for sure.
Might try this with your BS broker and the neighbors cat just to verify though.
Dickeylee | 03.18.08 - 9:33 pm | #

unirealist writes:
OT. From Kunstler's blog, about the sale of BS to JPM:

The object of the game is to prevent the "assets" of Bear Stearns from going to the auction block, on which they would be discovered to be nearly worthless, which would instantly render all similar assets held by the other big banks to be similarly worthless, and would result in a universal margin call that would pretty much unwind the hallucinated "wealth" acquired the past ten years.

(Maybe someone here already offered this POV and I missed it.)
unirealist | 03.18.08 - 9:36 pm | #

slid writes:
http://www.thedailyshow.com/vide...le=broken- arrow

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g...h? v=gUkbdjetlY8

The question is "should I move my money from BS?" the answer is "no, BS is fine."

It is unclear as what exactly the caller meant, sell my SC stock, or empty my account at BS (with the implication that is where my equities are held.)

beware fast talkers! (and screamers too)
slid | 03.18.08 - 9:37 pm | #

12th Percentile writes:
The reason I am a religious man (don't ask which one) and have faith is that when the market goes down there are a lot of visitors here but when the market goes up on what can be only seen as very bad news, there are only 75 heathens on board. The True Believers have been bought back on board.

Nothing to see here. All is well.

Reverend 12th Percentile recommends the kool aid.

If you people end up with any money despite your faith, which I don't really expect will happen, please don't retire to the same south american country as I do. You annoy me.
12th Percentile | 03.18.08 - 9:38 pm | #

Marcus Aurelius writes:
SO and I had the opportunity to visit some auction open houses on Saturday (auction is next Saturday).

Here's what we saw:

Reston, Virginia, in the low rent area of town (which is better than similar neighborhoods in other areas). 30+- y.o. TH, 3br/2ba. Extensively and poorly renovated years ago. Very run down. Opening bid: $50K. Guard (not an agent - a uniformed guard) said there had been 8 visitors to 2 open houses.

This place will need at least $30K of work to put right. 110 years ago, this home would probably have gone for $100K. I would not consider buying it at this price, today.

Herndon, VA, in a middle-class neighborhood (Herndon has been in the news over the past couple of years due to its reaction to a swelling hispanic/illegal immigrant population). 20+- y.o. SFH (open house was closed - walked exterior and peered through windows. SO had been inside similar home once). Opening bid: $50K.

The place looked okay - no obvious structural flaws, good roof, concrete patio needs replacement, probably a few interior fixes and renovations. Houses in this area would have sold for $100 - 120K 10 years ago. Wouldn't consider this for the opening bid price, either, as I think it'll go lower.

I think we'll take my 12 y.o. son, who is very interested in the scenario playing out (thank god) to the auction, just for Ss & Gs - and the educational experience.
Marcus Aurelius | 03.18.08 - 9:41 pm | #

Missed Information writes:
you guys talk too much about stock market. We mostly agree on medium-term direction of inflation-adjusted S&P price. Why does it matter what market does hour-by-hour, day-by-day?

The investment I felt best about today was not in stocks.
Missed Information | Homepage | 03.18.08 - 9:47 pm | #

4822 writes:
Talk about Ponies!

http://www.foxnews.com/story/ 0,2933,339049,00.html

7 Arrested in California Mortgage Fraud Ring

"...Attorney General Jerry Brown said his office was seeking penalties and restitution of more than $20 million in the bait-and-switch scam led by 25-year-old real estate agent Eric Pony.

"This is among the worst we've ever seen," Brown said. "This is not just exaggeration and puffing. This is straight out deliberate stealing and fraud."

The case, filed under seal Monday in Los Angeles Superior Court, alleges that the group tricked consumers into agreeing to excessive loans, unaffordable home payments and exorbitant fees.

The suspects are accused of forging signatures when consumers would not sign paperwork..."
4822 | 03.18.08 - 9:50 pm | #

quartz writes:
CR had the Cramer clip up yesterday. You can find it in the video archives at the bottom of the page.
quartz | 03.18.08 - 9:50 pm | #

Viewing with alarm writes:
RE agent told me today that the average price of single family home in our county dropped 25% in last ninety days. No one knows this because press is silent since biggest ad revenues are from RE. Lenders are part of conspiracy of silence as well. Don't want to encourage jingle mail. This is crazy. He had been drinking his lunch and lost control. Probably be buried in new sub division by morning.
Viewing with alarm | Homepage | 03.18.08 - 9:52 pm | #

YLSP writes:
Overheard at work today: "just make sure you buy before it goes back up again." ... hahahahahahahahahaha

And I work at a place with decent wages and everyone is practically a college graduate. My co-workers don't listen to me if I tell them 2010-2011 timeframe...
YLSP | 03.18.08 - 9:55 pm | #

Viewing with alarm writes:
Following this blog is a curse. We know what is coming and it so bad we can't talk about it in polite company.
Viewing with alarm | Homepage | 03.18.08 - 10:03 pm | #

sk writes:
re: Cramer and his advice on Bear Sterns . Its as this commentators says:

he question is "should I move my money from BS?" the answer is "no, BS is fine."

It is unclear as what exactly the caller meant, sell my SC stock, or empty my account at BS (with the implication that is where my equities are held.)

slid


The thing is all the time Cramer was speaking, the stock chart of BS was on the screen - so there is a clear implication IMO that we are talking stock here.

Then there's the aspect that Bear Sterns isn't a brokerage like say Etrade or InteractiveBrokers or Fidelity nor is it a bank in any conventional sense.

It does have private clients, and derivative trading operations but I can't imagine wealthy clients or institutional derivate traders calling up Cramer can you ?

Cramer was quizzed about it yesterday by Erin whatshername on CNBC and he insisted he meant your money in accounts there is safe - and wasn't making a comment about the stock.

But, bearing in mind my points above, I dunno - My conspiracy antenna actually start twitching here, to be honest - it looks a little neat - say something technically correct but very easily misunderstood - quite deliberately as a pump and dump.

Who knows though ?

-K
sk | 03.18.08 - 10:03 pm | #

Kicker writes:
If I decide I hate you people enough I'll write a big long post about RESPA disclosures.

Your cat smells vaguely of liverwurst and openly despises you. Your dog smells of elderberries and secretly despises you.

You are envious of Countrywide Financial loan officers and their sparkling white teeth and winning personalities.

One person is a valid statistical sample if repeated in newspapers often enough. Loan review should be fully automated. Real journalists aren't required to credit sources if they are from blogs. Cramdowns create a moral hazard. The olympics should replace figure skating with full contact fighting. Excel is for work.
Kicker | 03.18.08 - 10:06 pm | #

Missed Information writes:
I think we were wrong on what Wily E Coyote moment means!
This is the true W.E.C moment with the Fed and the credit crisis: http://youtube.com/watch?v=KJJW7EF5aVk
Missed Information | Homepage | 03.18.08 - 10:19 pm | #

christofay writes:
The central America vacation home/retirement home sales effort is one of the crazier aspects the real estate bubble from the States. Those are third world countries; the idea that you can build a McMansion with hot/cold running water, ac for 2400 sqft, Foxnews, ESPN 1, ESPN 2 and ESPN 8, the Ocho, the only word in Spanish many of these home buyers know, is preposterous. If things get bad, there is no way home for these oldsters. They are there to be cash cows, what happens whent he money runs out?

Also Agora has way too many products to sell, a lot of their newsletter writers are rehashing Jim Grant and Rogers thoughts & statements only.
christofay | 03.18.08 - 10:29 pm | #

Elvis writes:
Cramer is irrelevant. Please discuss something more interesting like muffin recipes or something.
Elvis | 03.18.08 - 10:30 pm | #

hiker90 writes:
Marcus, nice report from the streets.

VWA, what part of the country are you in?

Kicker, lol.

Best,
hiker90 | 03.18.08 - 10:38 pm | #

homedad43 writes:
Marcus:

Spent 6 years in Silver Spring, MD and worked in DC. Bought our house in '95 for $155K and sold in '97 for 170K; per Zillow in early '06, it went for $450K.

Better half loves it here now as our area is a haven for auctioneers. The local practice is for retirees to auction off house/unnecessary assets and use proceeds for retirement. Also lot of local "mud sales" by volunteer FD to raise funds.

Has been interesting experience for older kids to see how almost instantaneous market dynamics work.
homedad43 | 03.18.08 - 11:00 pm | #

FFDIC writes:
Thread music: Six Feet Under Opening Sequence Theme Song
http://youtube.com/watch? v=KYAe0...feature=related
FFDIC | 03.18.08 - 11:05 pm | #

Robyn writes:
We're on the road in south Florida. Ran across something I'd never heard of before. Redlining of particular condos and geographical areas in terms of mortgages on the ground that even with X% down - the buyers will be upside down a year or two from now. IOW - lenders are in maximum defensive mode. Don't know what will happen with these thousands of Miami condos if no one will lend on them at any price. Robyn
Robyn | 03.18.08 - 11:25 pm | #

Tom writes:
...the only HUD we have...

You go into mortgages, or UnMortgages as the case may be, with the HUD you have, not the HUD you may wish to have at a later time.

Or something like that.
Tom | 03.18.08 - 11:36 pm | #

Tom writes:
Don't know what will happen with these thousands of Miami condos if no one will lend on them at any price.

I don't know what will happen to the airlines if Miami condo developers can't afford to advertise nonsense in their pages.
Tom | 03.18.08 - 11:52 pm | #

Keep It Simple, I'm Stupid writes:
I can't help but muse that the easiest path to home affordability is to get a better job,/i>

Anything that involves getting a job right now is not the easiest path anywhere. Trust me on this one.
Keep It Simple, I'm Stupid | Homepage | 03.19.08 - 12:11 am | #

Jeff writes:
Marcus Aurelius writes:
"Here's what we saw:

Reston, Virginia, in the low rent area of town (which is better than similar neighborhoods in other areas). 30+- y.o. TH, 3br/2ba. Extensively and poorly renovated years ago. Very run down. Opening bid: $50K. Guard (not an agent - a uniformed guard) said there had been 8 visitors to 2 open houses."

Marcus:

I grew up in Reston, VA and it is a very nice community with one bad spot next to a public housing development (the low rent area you were in). My folks live in the nicer part and as of yet they've only seen about 10% depreciation in their neighborhood. A lot of government workers and government retirees live there and simply won't move so I don't think that price appreciation or depreciation will matter for very many in that community.
Jeff | 03.19.08 - 12:25 am | #

Noah writes:
From the DR Horton ad:

Take advantage of unbelievably perfect timing, and get an unbeatable deal!

Oh boy, it's a two-fer!
Noah | 03.19.08 - 1:18 am | #

Curious writes:
CR,

Do you account for people who take their home off the market to re-list it later?
Curious | 03.19.08 - 2:18 am | #

sdtfs writes:
One person is a valid statistical sample if repeated in newspapers often enough. Loan review should be fully automated. Kicker | 03.18.08 - 10:06 pm | #

Good grief, man! We want her to hate us, not kill us!
sdtfs | 03.19.08 - 3:00 am | #

Blue writes:
My folks just retired down to CR and like it a lot.

Remember that the Colon is pegged to the USD, so much of the "appreciation" in property values is really just related to the depreciation of the USD.
Blue | 03.19.08 - 4:06 pm | #