iceman writes:
March 17, 2008 ... did USA Today release that 15 days too early?
iceman | 03.19.08 - 10:05 pm | #

andy in NZ writes:
Ridiculous!
andy in NZ | 03.19.08 - 10:06 pm | #

KnotRP writes:
Contemplate how bad the others must be, if he's considered tops. It's like being declared "the most normal person to ever appear as a guest on Jerry Springer"....

I'm still wondering who participates in surveys, but I'm beginning to guess they
aren't above average.
KnotRP | 03.19.08 - 10:09 pm | #

Lionel writes:
To paraphrase Inigo Montoya: "You keep using that word 'forecaster,' I don't think this means what you think it means."
Lionel | 03.19.08 - 10:11 pm | #

Ministry of Truth writes:
Bought and Paid!!!
Ministry of Truth | 03.19.08 - 10:13 pm | #

Outsider writes:
Well, admit it, I guess we all were wrong after all. USA Today said it and that settles it. Goodnight.
Outsider | 03.19.08 - 10:15 pm | #

bacon dreamz writes:
too much text.
bacon dreamz | 03.19.08 - 10:17 pm | #

MiTurn writes:
Proof that the apocalypse is at hand!
MiTurn | 03.19.08 - 10:20 pm | #

REBear writes:
How much does it cost? I want to be one of the top 10 forecasters in a group of no more than 10.
REBear | 03.19.08 - 10:21 pm | #

bruiser writes:
I know meteorologists with better track records than Lawrence Yun.
bruiser | 03.19.08 - 10:21 pm | #

mp writes:
USA Today is known in the trade as McPaper, and now you know why.

Who reads it, anyway, other than people who stay at Holiday Inns and receive complimentary copies?
mp | 03.19.08 - 10:23 pm | #

Marcus Aurelius writes:
Not only is Lawrence Yun never right in his forecasts, he's a shill for the industry and will say exactly what he is told to say, no matter how contrary to observable reality that might be. He does not do forecasts, he does spin. He manages to go beyond incompetence - he lives in the realm of questionable professional ethics.

Fortunately, the only time I ever read USA Today is when I find it outside my hotel room door. From now on, I'll just step over it.

We already know the ratings agencies are freekin' insane. Now they're handing out awards to known poseurs. Maybe it's something in the water these people drink.
Marcus Aurelius | 03.19.08 - 10:24 pm | #

crispy&cole writes:
top 5:

Fun Yun

Nostradamas

Abbey Cohen

Jim Cramer

All members of the Bush Economic team
crispy&cole | 03.19.08 - 10:25 pm | #

andy in NZ writes:
REBear,

The cost of being a forecaster was predicted to go up 10% in 08, we have revised our predictions down by 20% because of sound fundamentals and continuing demand.

Please send a check to forecasters anonymous of $9.99.

You can be 11th out of 10, thank you from the NAR.
andy in NZ | 03.19.08 - 10:25 pm | #

risk capital writes:
Yo Neil, get out the freakin popcorn-

"SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- The Great Unwind has begun, Citigroup Inc. strategists warned on Wednesday.
As markets and economies de-leverage across the globe, investors should avoid companies and countries that have grown to rely too much on borrowed money, they said. "

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/...D& dist=hplatest
risk capital | 03.19.08 - 10:26 pm | #

crispy&cole writes:
My dog wouldnt fetch the USA today...
crispy&cole | 03.19.08 - 10:26 pm | #

wsf writes:
Risk Capital, isn't that guy trashing his own company?
wsf | 03.19.08 - 10:30 pm | #

crispy&cole writes:
If you want to get a good nights sleep, don't read Roubioni
crispy&cole | 03.19.08 - 10:31 pm | #

six percent solution writes:
Apparently USA Today sells real estate ads.
six percent solution | 03.19.08 - 10:32 pm | #

risk capital writes:
wsf-

I think it is part of the strive for independence.
risk capital | 03.19.08 - 10:32 pm | #

christofay writes:
This is America where we are all above average. So when you take an individual out of the above average group he or she is an above average person but in a lower percentile of above average. Just the conditions to make a wicked forecaster.

I am one of the few below average people. And I would consider it an honor just to have to carry Alan Greenspan's brief case.

Alan, one brilliant forecaster, kept us out 28 or the last 17 recessions.
christofay | 03.19.08 - 10:33 pm | #

Marcus Aurelius writes:
risk capital | 03.19.08 - 10:26 pm

WTF? "Avoid us like the Plague."
Marcus Aurelius | 03.19.08 - 10:34 pm | #

REBear writes:
C&C,
Your dog may pick up the paper and run to the fed window.
REBear | 03.19.08 - 10:35 pm | #

Misean writes:
BZZZT..FFFPPPTTT...

NOOOO! AHHHH!

BZZTT! FFFPPTT!

STOP!!!

BZZZTT!!!...FFFppptt....sputter.

GAH! Thank Glod the Super Colander Tin Foil Hat was running off the 9 volts. Out of juice.

No more buwettes.

BZZT! Ah!!!...Sheesh. ! more buwette.

Cheers,
Misean | 03.19.08 - 10:40 pm | #

chickenlittle writes:
USA Today must need more realty advertising......much more.
chickenlittle | 03.19.08 - 10:40 pm | #

giocatoli writes:
nonsense! He is totally solvent! I mean, accurate!
giocatoli | 03.19.08 - 10:40 pm | #

Barley writes:
Oh please...more paper and ink wasted on some gumba with a business card and six figure job.

and

crispy&cole writes:
If you want to get a good nights sleep, don't read Roubioni

I am sleeping just fine w/ gold certs and near 100% cash (at the minute) because 2-3 days might be a telling momnet.

It is a long weekend some sense that the US may be busy buying dollars. Not me we cant afford it.
Barley | 03.19.08 - 10:41 pm | #

risk capital writes:
marcus-

what is interesting is that the fed has their back,

now,

what is also interesting is that the hedgies arguably brought bs down,

what will be interesting to see is who has the hedgies back?

close your eyes and what who do you see?

I'll go with that analogy.
risk capital | 03.19.08 - 10:41 pm | #

Mable Jensen of Dubuque, Iowa writes:
USA Today . . .Zimbabwe tomorrow.
Mable Jensen of Dubuque, Iowa | 03.19.08 - 10:44 pm | #

Misean writes:
Barley,

Now, that's away to position.

Or is it:

Now! That is the way to position.

I'll choose the second.

Cheers,
Misean | 03.19.08 - 10:47 pm | #

giocatoli writes:
I am going to miss you all when big brother shuts down the internet. I havent laughed this hard since... yesterday ....when I watched me some bubblevision.... but thats beside the point...
giocatoli | 03.19.08 - 10:48 pm | #

barely writes:
EEM got absolutely clobbered today with EEV up ~12%. Nice move. I had position there for the past 4 months. Too bad I closed out my emerging markets trades Monday, ahead of the rate cut. Remarkable how I can time the market so perfectly. I get out just before the casino pays the jackpot.
barely | 03.19.08 - 10:51 pm | #

Marcus Aurelius writes:
RC:

Yer' killin' me here! Every time I close my eyes, I'm on the beach in Bermuda with a nice rum drink and my SO, and she wants to go back to the cabana.

Okay:

Are you saying that the fed wants to drive money to other currencies or hedge funds?

Spill, dude. I'm not getting it.
Marcus Aurelius | 03.19.08 - 10:51 pm | #

dryfly writes:
Who reads it, anyway, other than people who stay at Holiday Inns and receive complimentary copies?
mp | 03.19.08 - 10:23 pm | #

I stay in McInns all the time and don't even wrap my fish in them let alone read them. In fact I'm staying in a McInn tonight in Fargo North Dakota.

Two thoughts come to mind while here...

1) $11 dollar wheat creates one helluva a lot of CRE excess - Fargo is booming.

2) The movie 'Fargo' portrays Fargo favorably - not criticizin', just sayin'...

dryfly | 03.19.08 - 10:52 pm | #

Marcus Aurelius writes:
Misean:

What's up with the PMs? Defaltion or correction?
Marcus Aurelius | 03.19.08 - 10:53 pm | #

Barley writes:
O/T

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Thornburg Mortgage Inc (TMA.N: Quote, Profile, Research), a struggling "jumbo" home loan provider, said on Wednesday it would try to quickly raise nearly $1 billion of capital to keep five lenders at bay and avert a possible bankruptcy filing
Barley | 03.19.08 - 10:53 pm | #

dryfly writes:
crispy&cole writes:
My dog wouldnt fetch the USA today...
crispy&cole | 03.19.08 - 10:26 pm | #

Hell parakeets won't even shit on USA Today - top THAT!

dryfly | 03.19.08 - 10:55 pm | #

Barley writes:
Like I have said before, China is the focus of the froth...INDEX VALUE CHANGE %CHANGE TIME
CSI 300 INDEX 3,737.10 -151.76 -3.90% 22:22
SHANGHAI SE A SHARE INDX 3,746.65 -201.28 -5.10% 22:37
SHANGHAI SE B SHARE INDX 239.11 -15.61 -6.13% 22:38
SHENZHEN SE A SHARE INDX 1,133.24 -45.47 -3.86% 22:22
Barley | 03.19.08 - 10:57 pm | #

giocatoli writes:
did j'all read roubini's post today? sweet mother o' ivan de jesus...
giocatoli | 03.19.08 - 10:58 pm | #

Misean writes:
Marcus,

I've been studying all week.

I simply can't believe the dollar indecices are indicating anything other than the BOTH.

Now, in the event of a deflation solid correction is nigh. And whilst I had been predicting deflation, it's hard to argue against inflation...it's been on for like seven decades.

Is this deflation? Sure as hell looks like it. Interest rate spreads are off the charts, and the bond market has to crack, one way or the other.

So what with G&S. Too damn turbulent to sya, other than:

1. Deflation: Money too precious and investment too dear to keep too much cash (Debt fiat paper from CB) so up.

2. Inflation: Silver still looks good there, Gold is a ? but still a nice store of value.

3. Chaos: PM all the way...but bulets and canned food better.

4. John Mouldin muddle along economy. Correction. Will trend up but, with a commodity shake out, coulld be 6m to a year for prices to regain.

Those are my best guesses to scenarios.

1. is my bet, but gotta see where shake out in yield curve occurs.

4. My next best guess.

These are all guesses. Not investment advice.

Follow at your own peril in this market.

Cheers,
Misean | 03.19.08 - 11:02 pm | #

risk capital writes:
marcus-

the article I put up and my feelings for the past couple months and your questions to myself and misean are all related.

My opinion was that we were entering a period of forced deleveraging, I was early, the move today in the commodity space may be indicative of a much more broad move, thus my telling neil to get the freakin popcorn, the strategist from citi agrees. I could be full of horse-hockey to, but, sooner or later the balance sheets will continue to contract and leveraged players will move into liquidation mode, ie hedge funds, sell what you want til you can, then sell $%^%#*&^ everything.

Gold was recently trading at $918, $100 move in short order, this is indicative of a forced unwind in my opinion and an illiquid space, one which I thought would repeat itself across most of the commodities, that in my opinion much of the market was artificial and unsupportive of the sustained price levels in which it was trading.

but, wtf do I know.

oh, and to answer your question, my point was that the hedgies lose, nothing more or less (couldn't happen to nicer assholes), but, of course calpers knows more than most & they are increasing their exposure, what is 2% of zero- we can likely negate the 20.
risk capital | 03.19.08 - 11:02 pm | #

sdtfs writes:
bacon dreamz writes:
too much text.

Five letters fewer than "Peccavi"
sdtfs | 03.19.08 - 11:03 pm | #

Misean writes:
dryfly,

http://www.youtube.com/watch? v=4...feature=related

This is a dead parrot.

Cheers,
Misean | 03.19.08 - 11:04 pm | #

Shnapstafarian writes:
dryfly - just be thankful you're not in Bismarck.

This blog should never link to the McPaper again for any reason. I would rather discuss articles appearing in Weekly World News.
Shnapstafarian | 03.19.08 - 11:05 pm | #

risk capital writes:
misean-

I agree, ain't no telling where this goes. @#$%^&* leveraged assholes.

The good news is that there are likely to be some great opportunties.
risk capital | 03.19.08 - 11:07 pm | #

Misean writes:
rick capital,

"the article I put up and my feelings for the past couple months and your questions to myself and misean are all related."

Yes. No doubt.

;-)

Cheers,
Misean | 03.19.08 - 11:09 pm | #

Xennady writes:
I've always thought that USA Today was a newspaper for illiterates. After this, I'm sure.
Xennady | 03.19.08 - 11:10 pm | #

Misean writes:
Shnapstafarian,

"I would rather discuss articles appearing in Weekly World News."

I'd rather discuss historical information on the back of sugar packets.

Cheers,
Misean | 03.19.08 - 11:10 pm | #

Allen C writes:
Greenspan called the bottom in late 2006. Are you suggesting otherwise?

Why is that 13 week T-bill at such a low yield anyways?

"You can fool some of the people all of the time."
Allen C | 03.19.08 - 11:10 pm | #

Marcus Aurelius writes:
Thanks, y'all.
Marcus Aurelius | 03.19.08 - 11:12 pm | #

Misean writes:
Allen C,

"Why is that 13 week T-bill at such a low yield anyways?"

1. It's not likely because they think inflation shall be a problem over the next 13 weeks.

2. Cash is King and they want to be liquid.

3. Both of the above, as they are opposite sides of the same coin.

4. Butthead: Shut up Beavis!

Beavis: The spreads pretty wide...heehhehehe

Butthead: You said the spreads wide. Huuhhuhhu

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y...h?v=y- dHW33YYU0

Cheers,
Misean | 03.19.08 - 11:15 pm | #

mp writes:
***CONJURE'S FUN FACTS***

Krugman is on liquidity trap watch.
mp | 03.19.08 - 11:20 pm | #

Max writes:
You guys are reading it wrong. He's the best person who happens to be a forecaster, not the best person at forecasting.

He always buys the bar a round of drinks, and he's always available on Saturdays to help you move. He's the best forecaster ever!
Max | Homepage | 03.19.08 - 11:24 pm | #

Marcus Aurelius writes:
Roubini's article sure makes it look like cronyism (or something similar, but exceedingly more nefarious) has indeed taken over our government.

They are out of control. We are out of control. Roubini talks about the "Shadow Banking System". We actually have a shadow government. Eisenhower warned of the Military/Industrial Complex. He should have warned us about the Financial Services/Government Complex.

Our "official" government is gone (they're not even consulted).
Marcus Aurelius | 03.19.08 - 11:24 pm | #

mp writes:
OT

CR, I'm writing to complain about that stupid insurance ad on your masthead. You know, the one with the three jerky pictures. Others have written in about it.

I'm running a hyperspeed Centrino duo here and your page loads like molasses with that thing.

Any chance of losing it?
mp | 03.19.08 - 11:24 pm | #

YLSP writes:
Our poor country. I mean, isn't that all we can do week after week? I'm surprised we live in such a civilized country. I'd expect violence or bloodshed by now.... but we just sit here and complain... I mean besides profiting handsomely** because 'whoocoodnode'

**Handsomely is subjective... but I know I've benefited some, and sometimes it just seems like shooting fish in a barrel... if you have the stomach.
YLSP | 03.19.08 - 11:27 pm | #

Misean writes:
Marcus,

"Roubini's article sure makes it look like cronyism (or something similar, but exceedingly more nefarious) has indeed taken over our government.

They are out of control. We are out of control. Roubini talks about the "Shadow Banking System".

Honestly is this new to you? I mean the Shadow Banking System aka Derivatives market, is not new.

I'm sorry if I sound rude, but does this surprise you?

Cheers,
Misean | 03.19.08 - 11:29 pm | #

Misean writes:
mp,

I have an overclocked E6700 dual core from 2.66 to 3.33 with an overclocked nvidia 8800 gtx, and had the same problem. Just check the browser call to the site and firewall the site. It goes away.

Cheers,
Misean | 03.19.08 - 11:32 pm | #

Billy Hill writes:
Anyone remember Jerome Kerviel? I think he's out of jail now. Maybe he can go into forecasting, and next year USA Today can pick him.
Billy Hill | 03.19.08 - 11:34 pm | #

Misean writes:
YLSP

"Our poor country. I mean, isn't that all we can do week after week? I'm surprised we live in such a civilized country. I'd expect violence or bloodshed by now"

Why, J6P has a Plasma, and his payments are still within his 99% range. Sure he buys groceries on the CC but why worry?

Cheers,
Misean | 03.19.08 - 11:35 pm | #

Anonymous writes:
Tanta,

No = Poetry!
Anonymous | 03.19.08 - 11:38 pm | #

fred writes:
i think in 1933 the tbill nominal yield was negative because of bank failures and flight to quality.
fred | 03.19.08 - 11:40 pm | #

Markel writes:
Just FYI, I believe that the USA Today ranking was based on their own questionnaire--not about housing prices, but Treasury yields and that kind of thing. Whoever did the best, of the people who responded to all four quarterly questionnaires--well, that's your genius winner.

I'm sure Yun will be just as honest about qualifying the highly limited nature of his award as Bill O'Reilly was about his Peabody.
Markel | 03.19.08 - 11:40 pm | #

Misean writes:
Markel,

"Bill O'Reilly was about his Peabody."

Shill O'Really got a peabody?

It's the end of the world as we know it. Holy shite.

Cheers,
Misean | 03.19.08 - 11:42 pm | #

Scotto writes:

top 5:


That's only 4
Scotto | 03.19.08 - 11:44 pm | #

Doctor Holiday writes:
“I’m honored to be recognized among some of the best economists in the country,” says Yun. “The economy and housing industry are facing many challenging issues at this time, which makes this an interesting and stimulating position.”

USA Today enlisted the help of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta to determine the most accurate forecasters among the economists surveyed in the newspaper’s quarterly survey on the U.S. economy.
Doctor Holiday | 03.19.08 - 11:44 pm | #

Barley writes:
eegads..Misean is on a mission
Barley | 03.19.08 - 11:45 pm | #

Doctor Holiday writes:
NAR uses the same models as Moody's and S&P, thus this is all about hard data:

The economists, whose identities were unknown to those gathering the data, received four scores - one for each quarterly survey - and were ranked on the average of those four scores. FRBA used statistical methods to assess the joint accuracy of the predictions rather than assessing the accuracy of each forecast variable separately, as is commonly done.
Doctor Holiday | 03.19.08 - 11:47 pm | #

Neil writes:
risk capital writes:
Yo Neil, get out the freakin popcorn-

"SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- The Great Unwind has begun, Citigroup Inc. strategists warned on Wednesday.
As markets and economies de-leverage across the globe, investors should avoid companies and countries that have grown to rely too much on borrowed money, they said. "

Oh man... scary. Does that mean avoid Americans? ;)

I agree that the "No" is poetry!

But think about this, J6P will continue to argue "real estate always goes up" and a few million more sheeple will get fleeced before its too obvious.

This is becoming a horror movie.

Got Popcorn?
Neil
Neil | Homepage | 03.19.08 - 11:48 pm | #

seriously writes:
On the occasion of my constipation, I see what the office has to offer in casual reading matierial.
USA today works everytime.
Nature's laxative.
seriously | 03.19.08 - 11:49 pm | #

Misean writes:
Barley,

Perhaps, It's been a few days where I could sit at my desk. Back problems...just getting up my vim and vinegar I guess.

;)

Cheers,
Misean | 03.19.08 - 11:49 pm | #

Doctor Holiday writes:
I came to this late, but is this false and misleading PR by NAR and is it not a Federal crime to suggest that your data is supported by a Federal bank?

http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/

I'm still looking and wonder what this is about, i.e, why do we have a newspaper in the business of distorting truth and pumping fraud?
Doctor Holiday | 03.19.08 - 11:57 pm | #

Misean writes:
Doctor Holiday,

"why do we have a newspaper in the business of distorting truth and pumping fraud?"

Are you freegin' serious. Why?! Oh I dunno it helps the Wall Street elite?

Ok...Ok..

Don't remind me to stop feeding the troll. Check.

Cheers,
Misean | 03.20.08 - 12:01 am | #

Doctor Holiday writes:
A Simultaneous Equations Analysis of Analysts’
Forecast Bias and Institutional Ownership
Lucy F. Ackert and George Athanassakos
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Working Paper 2000-5
March 2000

http://www.frbatlanta.org/filele...docs/ wp0005.pdf

Stevens, Barron, Kim, and Lim (1998) show that analysts’ forecast accuracy decreases
in a more uncertain information environment. Accordingly, if higher dispersion in earnings forecasts
reflects greater uncertainty in a firm’s information environment, the error in analysts’ forecasts
should be positively related to the standard deviation of earnings forecasts.

I don't see that Yun exists in relation to this puzzle other than some fraud PR from someone or a hoax to dis-credit the retard.
Doctor Holiday | 03.20.08 - 12:04 am | #

Doctor Holiday writes:
Re: Are you freegin' serious. Why?! Oh I dunno it helps the Wall Street elite?

As I said, I'm late to this story, and just hunting around The Fed notes, and this "story" seems to be symptomatic of a counterdistinction between fraud and fictitious plagiarism , i.e, this is beyond Surrealism and more like what we earth folks call a Non sequitur.
Doctor Holiday | 03.20.08 - 12:10 am | #

Doctor Holiday writes:
Actually, this bit on Yun follows along the bottom of this murky creek:

In philosophy, a formal fallacy or a logical fallacy is a pattern of reasoning which is always wrong. This is due to a flaw in the structure of the argument which renders the argument invalid. A formal fallacy is contrasted with an informal fallacy, which may have a valid logical form, but be false due to the characteristics of its premises, or its justification structure.
The term fallacy is often used more generally to mean an argument which is problematic for any reason, whether it be a formal or an informal fallacy.

Has anyone seen Warsh?
Doctor Holiday | 03.20.08 - 12:12 am | #

Markel writes:
Misean,

No, Billo did not win a Peabody. Unless you ask him.

You know, USA Today was originally founded to be quick fluff with good sports coverage. Only in the past few years did it really adopt an agenda, and a readership that wants to hear it. Matter of fact, when the retired founder, Al Neuhart, a war vet (Korea or WWII, I forget) cautiously criticized the Iraq war in a column, he got threatened and labeled a terrorist.
Markel | 03.20.08 - 12:15 am | #

Misean writes:
Markel,

I agree. I'm going to go back to interpretting sugar packets. Safet..at least until shrubboy the dancing monkey and Dick Head are out of office.

;-)

Cheers,

BTW...done for the night...diner and bed...I always say.

Good luck all...till the sun rises.

Cheers,
Misean | 03.20.08 - 12:20 am | #

Navspecwarcom writes:
Tanta: Best headline!

I thought this clown would have lost his job 2 years ago. If I'd be off for so long I would have lost my credibility long time ago. Shows you how fake everything is. The name Yun makes me puke.
Navspecwarcom | 03.20.08 - 12:20 am | #

REBear writes:
Japan, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan and Philippines markets are closed Thursday for holiday.

>>
spoil sports!
REBear | 03.20.08 - 12:23 am | #

dryfly writes:
Shnapstafarian writes:
dryfly - just be thankful you're not in Bismarck.

Was out in Jamestown & Valley City earlier today though... went by a sign sayin' they had the world's largest buffalo.

I wish I had the world's largest buffalo... it would kick the ass over having a pony...

dryfly | 03.20.08 - 12:24 am | #

picosec writes:
"Japan, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan and Philippines markets are closed Thursday for holiday."

OTOH, how would you like to have your money tied up in a market that's shut down?

Good Friday?

...Never mind...
picosec | 03.20.08 - 12:27 am | #

MLM writes:
You CAN have the world's largest buffalo. You can all have the world's largest buffalo, each and every one of you. Don't forget to vote for me in November!
MLM | Homepage | 03.20.08 - 12:29 am | #

Anonymous writes:
Bonus Material Update; warning...dah daaa dot day daahhah dot:


Economic prognosticator sees 'minefield of risks' ahead


http://www.usatoday.com/money/ ec...recasters_x.htm

Allen Sinai, president of Decision Economics, expects the fed funds rate to be 5.5% at the end of 2006.

Sinai is worth listening to. He was the most accurate forecaster of the 45 economists surveyed each quarter last year by USA TODAY. Sinai, 66, also came in first place when USA TODAY first honored the top forecaster three years ago.

This is the third year USA TODAY has paired with the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta to recognize the most accurate forecaster.

Only one person, Briefing.com chief economist Timothy Rogers, has been in the top 10 all three years.

The rest of the top 10 economists and their forecasts for the fed funds rate at the end of 2006:

2. Don Ratajczak, Consulting economist, Morgan Keegan: 5%

3. Tim Rogers, Chief economist, Briefing.com: 5%

4. Christopher Rupkey, Senior financial economist, Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi: 5.5%

5. Maria Fiorini Ramirez, CEO, Maria Fiorini Ramirez Inc.: 5%

6. Edward McKelvey, Senior economist, Goldman Sachs: 5%

7. Ken Mayland, President, ClearView Economics: 4.75%

8. Joel Prakken, Chairman, Macroeconomic Advisers: 5%

9. John Ryding, Chief U.S. economist, Bear Stearns: 5.25%

10. Ethan Harris, Chief U.S. economist, Lehman Bros.: 5.5%

Sponsored Links

This has been a public service of Doc holiday Enterprise a division of scotty at the helm; bringing you and your loved ones, closer to the edge.
Anonymous | 03.20.08 - 12:31 am | #

tj & the bear writes:
My opinion was that we were entering a period of forced deleveraging

Had to come someday, and it looks like it's coming "sooner rather than later"... like NOW.

Got PUTs?
tj & the bear | 03.20.08 - 12:32 am | #

stinky writes:
dryfly, quit the fargo jokes, that film was shot in minnesota!
stinky | 03.20.08 - 12:39 am | #

Anonymous writes:
Ok, bingo,

Economist expects Fed to cut rates at least a half-point

Updated 2d 16h ago

http://www.usatoday.com/money/ ec...economist_N.htm

Of the economists who were in the top 10 last year, seven say the Fed will cut by three-quarters of a percentage point at its Tuesday meeting. Three say the Fed will slice by a half-percentage point. But, like Berson, all say it's a close call.

Top prognosticators' foreccasts

1. David Berson

Chief economist, PMI Group

Fed rate 2008 low 1.5%

Recession in 2008? Yes


2. Nariman Behravesh

Chief global economist, Global Insight

Fed rate 2008 low 2%

Recession in 2008? Yes


3. Lyle Gramley

Senior economic adviser, Stanford Washington Research Group

Fed rate 2008 low 2%

Recession in 2008? Yes


4. Mark Zandi

Chief economist, Moody's Economy.com

Fed rate 2008 low 1.5%

Recession in 2008? Yes


5. Lawrence Yun

Chief economist, National Association of Realtors

Fed rate 2008 low 2.25%

Recession in 2008? No
Anonymous | 03.20.08 - 12:39 am | #

FFDIC writes:
Sheila Bair is on the next flight out of DC to London in Coach of course and will kick some ass.

London Times - HBOS: Malicious traders in the City [London] try to topped the Halifax bank with rumours
http:// business.timesonline.co.u...icle3587090.ece
FFDIC | 03.20.08 - 12:48 am | #

tj & the bear writes:
FFDIC,

Where there's smoke there's fire...
tj & the bear | 03.20.08 - 12:49 am | #

Anonymous writes:
Clearly, a global economic slowdown is under way, and it's exacerbated by the financial market turbulence," said Nariman Behravesh, chief economist and webcast moderator for Waltham, MA-based Global Insight. "The US clearly is in a recession. The only question is how deep and how long."

Behravesh predicts the US recession will be "mild" and have ripple effects throughout the world, but not enough to trigger a global recession. His odds are that there's a 30% chance of a worldwide recession due to the US recession and a softening of China's fast-paced growth. "I do not think the chances of a global recession is that high, but they have risen," he said.
Anonymous | 03.20.08 - 12:49 am | #

transient writes:
So Yun thinks we are at the low for FFR for 2008, and there will be no recession?
transient | 03.20.08 - 12:51 am | #

Anonymous writes:
Im in love with Glick...yummy

http://glickreport.blogs.foxbusi...s-intervention/

March 17, 2008 9:43AM
What Do You Think About the Fed’s Intervention?
By Alexis Glick

Gramley said the Fed has been acting very aggressively since the middle of January to help ease market turmoil. “I think it’s pulled out all stops to prevent a meltdown; I don’t think we should put the blame on the Fed for what has happened. I think the Fed is responding very, very well.”

“It’s rather like what you face if you have cancer, and you need to take chemotherapy; you know there are going to be some bad side effects, but the alternative is that if you don’t do it — you’re going to die. And I think that is the situation which the fed found itself in, it really had no alternative,” he continued.

How bad does he think things will get? “The worst case scenario is that we just get into a total economic and financial meltdown and we have no way to prevent a really massive recession. I don’t think that is going to happen, I think the Fed is moving aggressively, I think we might have to get more taxpayer money involved by getting the federal government directly involved in taking some of these bad mortgages out of the market one way or another,” Gramley said.
Anonymous | 03.20.08 - 12:52 am | #

Anonymous writes:
PDFTT
Anonymous | 03.20.08 - 12:52 am | #

nades writes:
mp writes:
***CONJURE'S FUN FACTS***

Krugman is on liquidity trap watch.

mp | 03.19.08 - 11:20 pm | #

ROTFL


....................

Roubini's is scaring the sh*t out of me... Is he Cramers smarter alter ego?
nades | 03.20.08 - 12:52 am | #

rsj writes:
In honor of this 'acheivment' bestowed on Yun I feel compelled to alternate my popcorn with funyons from now on.

Big buffalo, eh? Sounds great but I think I still want my pink pony. With butterflies. Happy butterflies. Yeah.
rsj | 03.20.08 - 12:55 am | #

tj & the bear writes:
nades,

Roubini's spooking me with all this "nationalization" talk, too. He's called the meltdown pretty good, though.
tj & the bear | 03.20.08 - 12:55 am | #

Anonymous writes:
Secondary Sources: Crisis Explanation, Fed, Commodity Prices
A roundup of economic news from around the Web.

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/ 2...=googlenews_wsj

Understanding Crisis: Writing for the New York Times, David Leonhardt tries to explain a crisis that he says even some of the top players don’t understand. “Bubbles lead to busts. Busts lead to panics. And panics can lead to long, deep economic downturns, which is why the Fed has been taking unprecedented actions to restore confidence. ‘You say, my goodness, how could subprime mortgage loans take out the whole global financial system?’ [Mark] Zandi [of Moody’s Economy.com] said. ‘That’s how.’”
Anonymous | 03.20.08 - 12:55 am | #

Anonymous writes:
Tha, tha, tha, thats all folks:

he European Union has overtaken the U.S. as the world's No. 1 economy due to the continued dramatic fall of the dollar, according to a Reuters report.

The U.S. Gross Domestic Product, or GDP, for 2007 is officially estimated at $13,843,800 billion. The 2007 GDP for the 15 EU countries is estimated at 8,847,889 billion euros, the report said.

That means when the euro yesterday topped $1.56, the EU officially became the largest economy in the world.
Anonymous | 03.20.08 - 12:58 am | #

nades writes:
Hopefully we wont have to nationalize we can just get some swf or oil money to buy it up... or have they now learned their lessons... humm... who's next in line... I think China left the cue... I know Norway is still pissed about that whole subprime thing... humm.... Guam maybe?
nades | 03.20.08 - 1:00 am | #

muzical chairzz writes:
Little Larry Yun??

Wow.

Who coodanode?

I mean, well,

Just who coodanode?

Shazaam!
muzical chairzz | 03.20.08 - 1:03 am | #

Anonymous writes:
I hearby decree that Paulson, Ben, Warsh and all these Whitehouse freaks shall now be paid based on performance.
Anonymous | 03.20.08 - 1:05 am | #

Kicker writes:
OT: How money market funds could have been impacted by the collapse of BSC. Long term mortgage and other securities turned into short term money through the magic of the repo.

The next step up the risk-return ladder would be a government-only money fund. Staying with Fidelity for the sake of comparison, you have Fidelity Government MMF (SPAXX), with a seven-day yield of 3.01%.

This fund's holdings are far different from the Treasury fund's. The holdings, as of the end of 2007, included a small dose of debt issued by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which are government-sponsored but not actually the government.

One-quarter of the fund was in obligations of the Federal Home Loan Banks, which are safe. But then come hundreds of millions of dollars of "repurchase agreements," or repos, between the fund and Wall Street and European investment firms such as Lehman Brothers, UBS Warburg, Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank. You didn't see Bear Stearns, but that could be just chance: Hundreds of money funds bought short-term debt from Bear Stearns and held it as Bear walked the plank.

http://www.kiplinger.com/ columns...alance0319.html
Kicker | 03.20.08 - 1:05 am | #

Justin writes:
A real top forecaster:
I was looking back at articles trying to find someone who looked at the BSC 10Q in november and said, clearly, Yikes! and i found him.

He wrote more in March 10th:

http://www.minyanville.com/artic...k/index/a/ 16202

A must read. it brings together a number of threads. The market may have been wrong about LEH going bk within days, but some jan 2009 put options are looking like good bets to me..
Justin | 03.20.08 - 1:05 am | #

mock turtle writes:
wow, Rubini sounds more confident than ever that all 12 steps towards systemic crisis are more or less underway.

http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini/

a real horror show.
mock turtle | 03.20.08 - 1:05 am | #

Anonymous writes:
With a critical pension reform vote set for Thursday, millions of workers walked off the job in Greece to protest the plan. Thousands rallied in both Athens and Thessaloniki.



"The bill's aim is to rationalize the social security system and secure its long-term viability," Finance Minister George Alogoskoufis told a Greek radio station on Tuesday.

Although Greece boasts one of the highest economic growth rates in the euro zone -- about 4 percent annually -- it has one of the lowest birth rates and is among several EU countries facing a pension crisis due to an aging population. A similar wave of strikes crippled France late last year when President Nicolas Sarkozy pushed for pension reforms there.

http://www.spiegel.de/ internatio...,542426,00.html

Coming soon to a country we all know and love.
Anonymous | 03.20.08 - 1:11 am | #

Kicker writes:
OT (again): How do you lose 15% in a ultra short term bond fund?

This is Fidelity's fund (4 month duration)....

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=...bc?s=FUSFX& t=5y
Kicker | 03.20.08 - 1:13 am | #

Sing Expat writes:
Is USA today a newspaper? Well, it's printed on paper, has words and stuff. So, yes, I guess it must be. It certainly ranks ups there with Time and People for journalistic integrity and worthwhile reporting.

Anyway, you're being too hard on Yun. All real estate is local. In the RE market in his little pin head, prices are still going up.
Sing Expat | 03.20.08 - 1:13 am | #

Anonymous writes:
That makes so much more sense now, doesn't it??

WHAT'S NEW
NAR Chief Economist Named a Top Forecaster
(March 17) NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun is fifth on USA Today's list of the top 10 economic forecasters. Yun is responsible for NAR’s real estate statistics and economic forecasting.

Re: Economist expects Fed to cut rates at least a half-point



http://www.usatoday.com/money/ ec...economist_N.htm

Of the economists who were in the top 10 last year, seven say the Fed will cut by three-quarters of a percentage point at its Tuesday meeting.

Re: USA Today's Top Forecaster
Anonymous | 03.20.08 - 1:20 am | #

Anonymous writes:
Sing,

The story here is about USA Today, being a newspaper that has a story about recent economists predicting what The Fed would do yesterday. Yun made a prediction about interest rates and came in as #5 out of 10. Yun is NARs economics prof, and The NAD headline is very misleading, suggesting that YUN is a top economist!
Anonymous | 03.20.08 - 1:24 am | #

tj & the bear writes:
mock,

The "de-leveraging" thing Roubini mentions is gathering steam everywhere in the blogosphere. Heck, there's even that Citi release saying as much.

Remember just a short while ago when the IBs started seriously scaling back hedge fund's credit lines? Denninger asserts that HFs cannot profitably operate without insane leverage, so the gig may truly be up. What do you think will happen to the markets if all the HFs cease to exist? Ought to make yet another dent in IB revenue streams, too.
tj & the bear | 03.20.08 - 1:25 am | #

Sing Expat writes:
Ah, ok. I think I was in college when USA Today came out. It was colorful and full of pretty charts. Doonesbury satirized it savagely, some of which I "borrowed" in my previous comment.

To be clear then,USA Today published Yun's prediction about Tuesday's cuts on Wednesday? I'm halfway around the world so it's tricky to know what's going on at what time.

Anyway, Yun has clearly been well trained by his master Lereah. When Nostradamus's predictions expire, the masses will be able to peer into the hazy future thanks to the combined wisdom of Lereah and Yun. Personally, I have been buying US real estate massively since 2005. I have not checked the market recently but I am guessing I am up about 50%.

Is this a good peak to sell at?
Sing Expat | 03.20.08 - 1:30 am | #

Gumbo writes:
mp writes: CR, I'm writing to complain about that stupid insurance ad ...

If you're using the firefox browser get the adblock add-on. Ad free surfing is the only way to go.
Gumbo | 03.20.08 - 1:31 am | #

Anonymous writes:
I Heart Warsh!!

(¯`♥'¯)
`*.¸.*´
¸.•´¸.•*¨) ¸.•*¨)
(¸.•´ (¸.•´ .•´ ¸¸.•¨¯)
Anonymous | 03.20.08 - 1:34 am | #

albrt writes:
Re: banner ads

I am running a Negroponte XO One-Laptop-Per-Child. It loads the page faster than my Mac or my office Dell because it just ignores flash ads and stupid crap like that. The keyboard's a little small but otherwise it's great. Like Geraldine Ferraro would say, those people in the developing world are lucky to have so many advantages.

But seriously, the developing world is going to bypass us so fast it isn't funny if they aren't weighed down by the likes of USA Today and computers that are primarily designed to force us to watch flash ads.
albrt | 03.20.08 - 1:43 am | #

Troy writes:
Denninger asserts

Just for fun I listened to his EOY 2007 TA predictions for 2008 last weekend, with yahoo's 1Q08 charts open to check his forecasts . . . eerily spot-on WRT support levels and trends for the major indices.
Troy | 03.20.08 - 1:46 am | #

Justin writes:
Nobody expects the spanish inquisition?
Right after the fed saves BSC, FNM, LEH and the free world..

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/ money...cnglobal120.xml

"MF Global warning sparks fears of sell-off"

gotta love the picture of that trader screaming with his hands in the air.
Justin | 03.20.08 - 1:51 am | #

Anonymous writes:
Earlier this week, the company's stock came under significant pressure on market rumours of liquidity problems at the firm.

Moody's also said it is also paying close attention to client balances as a barometer of MF Global's franchise strength and customer confidence in today's volatile environment.

Signs of permanent franchise erosion, if evident, would put downward pressure on the rating, as MF Global's leading franchise in exchange-traded futures brokerage is a critical factor supporting the rating, it added.

Moody's said the company's rating continues to be supported by the relatively low risk profile of its business model, the high degree of diversification by client, product and geography, and its market-leading position in the growing futures trading industry.
Anonymous | 03.20.08 - 2:41 am | #

Zaxx writes:
Yeah, so true
Zaxx | Homepage | 03.20.08 - 3:12 am | #

blowncue writes:
Kicker,

re: money market funds

Turns out my particular Schwab taxable MMF because it was a "sweep" fund was instantly transferable to my linked bank account.

Not knowing this I was up very late Sunday night pouring over the last two quarterly reports of portfolio holdings. What I found was:

that SIV exposure was roughly 250bps of the fund and declining. Whistlejacket exposure 75bps and the board decided to ride it out.

there was much more exposure to multiseller ABS conduits sponsored by banks, typically with 2 layers of protection (10% subordination and another layer I couldn't understand easily). These were rated. I wasn't sure to what extent they had liquidity backstops. Some were in the banks' name directly. These had more protection to them than the SIVs.

there were large repo fundings to Bear Stearns and to Deutsche Bank with a 2% haircut and collateralized by US Treasuries. I wasn't clear about who had physical custody of the collateral.

there were CD's from banks worldwide, including Citigroup and Barclays. From 10s of m to 100-200ms spread b/t 1-6 month maturity.

If BSC had gone down, my fear would be that overnight lending would be pulled in a domino effect b/t banks worldwide. Not knowing what reserves were available to banks globally I was concerned about ability to repay CDs and deal support for the conduits in such a stressed environment. I also didn't like that I had exposure to Citigroup as a borrower and a conduit sponsor. Particularly as it was clear they had rolled out of SIV's traceable to Citi (which is good).

Given the Fed liquidity backstop that risk has declined, however I would dependent upon portfolio managerial skill in identifying which European banks are creditworthy.

Given the availability of buying and selling Treasuries at no cost, and a linked FDIC insured bank account paying competitive yields, and what Schwab charges in bps on the MMF, the risk/reward profile in taxable MMF makes no sense right now.

re: ultrashort bond fund losses

Schwab YieldPlus had 8-9% prime to subprime home equity loan exposure and much more A-AAA tranche private label CMO exposure. I don't know if its just MTM or if there are permanent impairments. They have raised the cash level to 15% of the fund. Some Seattle firm is trying to organize a class-action suit. I've never liked products that blur lines of portfolio allocation. Either be in cash or take risk and get paid for it.
blowncue | 03.20.08 - 3:43 am | #

blowncue writes:
More importantly, as a customer going forward, I don't want to deal with a lot of alphabet soup and slices of this and that. If I need the money in five years then I want bonds that are going to pay me interest and principal in five years, period. I'll take my risk in stocks. All this crap about innovation at the expense of judgment and regulation.
blowncue | 03.20.08 - 3:53 am | #

blowncue writes:
"Hunt for £100m rogue trader after attack on HBOS share price"

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money...r419.xml& page=1

The Dirty Rotten Scoundrels Quote:

"An email circulated in the City by an anonymous banker, seen by The Daily Telegraph, falsely alleged that a newspaper was to run an article today on problems at HBOS which "will raise the spectre of a run on the bank".

It was also falsely alleged that HBOS, Britain's biggest mortgage lender, had sought emergency talks with the Bank of England over the Easter weekend."

Of note, the co-author of that article also authored this article

"British banks tainted by toxic debt"

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/ money...nukbanks118.xml

Huzzah! to the Telegraph for playing both sides of this story.
blowncue | 03.20.08 - 4:46 am | #

blowncue writes:
S[eaking of rogue traders:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/ne...mWBo& refer=home
blowncue | 03.20.08 - 4:58 am | #

S. N. writes:
Good posts, blowncue.
S. N. | 03.20.08 - 5:07 am | #

dr strangemoney writes:
Welcome to the f*cking internet, shills. Prepare to have your "fucking face ripped off."
dr strangemoney | Homepage | 03.20.08 - 5:11 am | #

christofay writes:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/ne...mWBo& refer=home

They spelled reefer wrong in that web address above

I do like the sentiment, reefer = home
christofay | 03.20.08 - 5:18 am | #

christofay writes:
I used to subscribe to a newspaper, the International Herald Tribune. It was a little pricey, created a lot of paper to recycle. I stopped getting it a couple of years ago, really haven't missed, too much information over the internet.
christofay | 03.20.08 - 5:19 am | #

christofay writes:
this place is pretty dull if the financial system doesn't happen to be crashing.

I'll definitely check in here the day a meteor crashes into earth
christofay | 03.20.08 - 5:20 am | #

wetzel writes:
USA Today. The newspaper for people who are too busy to watch TV.
wetzel | 03.20.08 - 6:58 am | #

Alo writes:
Interesting that USA Today doesn't have this press release on their site...
Alo | 03.20.08 - 7:56 am | #

Anonymous writes:
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=C...E_HE.J08.E& v=d6

Pigs get slaughtered
Anonymous | 03.20.08 - 8:04 am | #

BillF writes:
The New York Times this morning has an article on the affluent caught in the housing downturn:

The Affluent, Too, Couldn’t Resist Adjustable Rates

One of those homeowners, a lawyer who spoke only on condition of anonymity for professional reasons, said he refinanced his mortgage with an ARM in January 2006 to take $510,000 out to invest in a hotel. “I planned to run the hotel with my lovely wife,” he said.

Their strategy was to sell the house after a couple of years, but when they put it on the market in April 2007, there were no buyers. The lawyer, now divorced, calculated that the mortgage payments, now $6,200 a month, plus taxes consume 96 percent of his net income, which includes occasional rent from vacationers who use the house. He lives with relatives and sleeps on the floor.
BillF | 03.20.08 - 8:04 am | #

REBear writes:
The "Hope Now" program

"When I try to call....I feel I'm getting the runaround first of all, and then we keep going back to the beginning every time."

http://money.cnn.com/2008/03/19/...dex.htm? cnn=yes
REBear | 03.20.08 - 8:07 am | #

VennData writes:
You'll all be sorry when Yun wins back-to-back... in fact I'm looking for three-peat for him in '10. ...And I'll bet he wins the USA today NCAA tourney pool too going 63-0.
VennData | 03.20.08 - 8:16 am | #

Yearning to learn writes:
"dryfly, quit the fargo jokes, that film was shot in minnesota!"

That's why it so complimentary to Fargo!

:)
Yearning to learn | 03.20.08 - 8:55 am | #

rick writes:
Hey Tanta -- It occurred to me that Lawrence Yun's statements of late are extremely similar in nature to Muhammad Saeed al-Sahhaf statements as Minister of Information of Iraq in the days before the invasion. The statements are so far from events in the real world, laughable in fact, that the informed audience is quite confused and perplexed. Who am I talking about here, al-Sahhaf or Yun? Either :)
rick | 03.21.08 - 3:08 pm | #