hopeinsd writes:
Why do they even bother with AA? They effectivly kill the company's business model by lowering its rating. How's it going to get capital now?
hopeinsd | 01.30.08 - 4:30 pm | #

Tony Shifflett writes:
Tomorrow is going to be a really interesting day in the markets, that's for sure. Will have to be sure to check futures this evening.
Tony Shifflett | 01.30.08 - 4:31 pm | #

ShortCourage writes:
Geez, I remember the days when raising a billion was trivial!

What's their problem?
ShortCourage | 01.30.08 - 4:32 pm | #

Johnny Z writes:
AA?

What a frigging joke.
Johnny Z | 01.30.08 - 4:33 pm | #

interestingtimes writes:
1 down... 3 to go?
interestingtimes | 01.30.08 - 4:33 pm | #

Tim writes:
1 company down, 3 to go? Or 1 rating category down, 3 to go?
Tim | 01.30.08 - 4:35 pm | #

Stuart writes:
"How's it going to get capital now?"

Well, that's the question isn't it... These guys are effectively dead now.
Stuart | 01.30.08 - 4:36 pm | #

Tony Shifflett writes:
The bond insurers are doomed, with this Ackman guy on their case now. I expect a really bad day in the markets tomorrow.

Just think -- will Hillary or McCain be able to save us? This country's in for a rough ride, that's for damn sure.
Tony Shifflett | 01.30.08 - 4:38 pm | #

Cal House Bear writes:
But won't the fed do another .75 % emergency cut and save us all?
Cal House Bear | 01.30.08 - 4:39 pm | #

MAB writes:
Regarding Nixon & gold.

1971 is when money became nothing more than fiction. It no longer reflects actual work. This is the essence of inflation.

Here's some perspective of what is possible without that pesky gold standard:

Currently, with the help of some clever bankers, I'm securitizing the color green. I'll be slicing and dicing it into numerous shades of blue and yellow. All but the equity tranches of yellow are AAA rated with yields expected at 200 basis points above 10 year notes.

Today's rate cut has increased the value of my new asset class immensely as investors around the globe are now clamoring for yield. According to my bankers it has something to do with inflation and negative yields. I dunno.

Anyway, my new financial product is environmentally friendly so a lot of socially conscious individuals and funds are bidding up the prices. You can get rich and feel good about being green.

Green party candidate Larry Larouche is a spokesman as is former professional quarterback Vinny Testaverde (vinny green head for non-goomba's). Alan Greenspan is particularly fond of our innovative product and claims it will fill the void left by the disappearance of the Berlin Wall.

BTW, We're saving RED for when the Great Wall disappears. Guess what color we're saving for the bottomless pit created by the disappearance of Wall Street?

Hint, think black holes where even light can't escape!


-
MAB | 01.30.08 - 4:42 pm | #

New Guy writes:
Umm, is there some way to get rid of "what in the heck"'s obvious spam?
New Guy | 01.30.08 - 4:42 pm | #

idoc writes:
i bet Ackman doesn't get invited to many HF parties. actually, he could become a modern day Robin Hood considering he's one of the only guys out there advocating bringing the house down.
idoc | 01.30.08 - 4:42 pm | #

daveNYC writes:
Probably, but I find unintentional humor of a paystub program designed to help you get an unaffordable home advertising on this site entertaining.
daveNYC | 01.30.08 - 4:44 pm | #

NSA writes:
Ain't that a Fitch!
NSA | 01.30.08 - 4:47 pm | #

estupido writes:
My guess is they've been delaying the downgrades on the monolines to give citigroup time to finalize prep for BK... w/in the next two weeks after we hear of big monoline downgrades.

Just a hunch. (or is it :) )
estupido | 01.30.08 - 4:47 pm | #

interestingtimes writes:
Tim: "1 company down, 3 to go? Or 1 rating category down, 3 to go?"

Answer: yes.
interestingtimes | 01.30.08 - 4:50 pm | #

Gary writes:
I think we all know this needs to be done.

And I know there will be fallout from it and there are a number of forces within and without the government seeking to put it off or avoid it altogether.

But how can any thinking person justify not downgrading the monolines immediately? To me any further delay is abetting a fraud.
Gary | Homepage | 01.30.08 - 4:51 pm | #

Marcus Aurelius writes:
We're starting to learn what happens when you let a failed businessman run your country. Yikes.
Marcus Aurelius | 01.30.08 - 4:51 pm | #

Mike writes:
estupido, don't tease me like that!
Mike | 01.30.08 - 4:52 pm | #

fatbear writes:
btw, we should not forget that FGIC is no longer part of GE - owned by (don't laugh) PMI Group (mortgage insurer), and 3 PE firms (Blackstone, Cypress & CIVC).

I wonder how GE feels re the $2B they got for FGIC? Lordy, were they on the right side of that deal....

Anybody have an idea about PMI books?
fatbear | 01.30.08 - 4:53 pm | #

Barley writes:
;-)
Barley | 01.30.08 - 4:54 pm | #

Robyn writes:
"My mom is getting screwed. She has interest bearing accounts, very safe investments, but she was planning to live on the interest. Meanwhile, since she has saved money all her life, she actually has to pay for all her expenses while her less thrifty neighbors get a free ride on all their prescriptions, etc.

This is no way to run a country.
LiberalTarian"

LiberalTarian - I don't know anything about your mother - so I will just speak in general. In general - most people who buy fixed income to generate income to live on don't have a clue how to put together a portfolio. First - they are so afraid of seeing fluctuations in principal that they keep all their money short term. Short term rates can vary a whole lot (I have seen everything from 1% to over 15% in the last 25 years) - even over the very short term (like the last year). You must lock in rates for a reasonable period of time when rates are relatively high to minimize huge fluctuations in income.

Second - the best time to buy long is usually when you are least inclined to do so - i.e., when the yield curve is flat or inverted (like last year). Why go long when you can get the same by going short? The simple answer is that the flat or inverted yield curve is usually a decent sign that the fed is slamming the brakes on the economy - and that rates will decline in the future (short rates usually more so than long rates).

Finally - the medicare prescription drug benefit program is open to all medicare recipients - regardless of income. And there are various other ways to reduce drug costs (one is by shopping around - a generic statin that costs over $100 for 100 pills in Target costs $12 in Costco here). Robyn
Robyn | 01.30.08 - 4:56 pm | #

NC Jim writes:
Slightly OT:

Regarding the Fed's continuing interest rate cuts I have not heard one word on CNBC or elsewhere about the loss in income to savers. There must be tens of thousands of Aunt Floozies out there relying on income from a couple hundred $1000 in CDs or MM accounts to supplement SS income. A 2% cut could mean $3-400/month reduction in income which is a hell of a lot for many older Americans.

Aunt Floozie's loss is the banks gain since I don't expect loan rates to come down much if any.

Jon Stewart actually asked Greenspan (he was hawking his book on the Daily Show) if rate reductions were not just a transfer from savers to banks and ,surprisingly. Greenspan said "sure" like doesn't everyone understand the game.

Class warfare is going strong and the fat cats have been winning for 25 years. Maybe the worm will turn but I doubt it.

Jim
NC Jim | 01.30.08 - 4:58 pm | #

malabar writes:
I am actually quite amazed at how short lived the 125 bps cut was as far market bounce. I really thought the bulls would party a little more.

There seems to be a lot of debate on inflation vs deflation. But it always veers off into semantics. So I find its much easier to look at it in terms of bull vs bear trend. The point I want to get at is the Treasury bond market. Its had an incredible run over the past 2 decades. Now those that are in deflationist camp believe the bull run in TBonds has a lot more legs. I'm not so sure. The question I ask myself is would I want to hold a 30 yr TBond to maturity at 4.5%? The answer is no. How much lower can the yield go - another 100 or 200 bps? So from a longer term investment perspective the risk/reward is not there in bonds.
malabar | 01.30.08 - 4:58 pm | #

MAB writes:
I'm pondering the insanity.

Americans are flocking to buy short term treasuries yielding just over 2%. Inflation is running at 4+ percent.

In response, the government taxes us on the interest we receive from the treasuries. Next, the government uses the money raised via the sale of treasuries to give us our money back.

In response to this, the Fed decides to devalue all of the money being used in the above transactions.

ABSURD!
MAB | 01.30.08 - 5:01 pm | #

Tank writes:
Just came over Bloomberg live: S&P may lower ratings on $.5T RMBS and CDO's

S&P says it may have to downgrade banks because of the housing problem. And not just the big banks, but regionals and locals, S&L's, Credit Unions.
Tank | 01.30.08 - 5:02 pm | #

Marcus Aurelius writes:
The real bulls are hiding under their desks. It would appear that the party is over.
Marcus Aurelius | 01.30.08 - 5:02 pm | #

Fair Economist writes:
Does FGIC have any bonds out we could look at for an honest market estimate of creditworthiness?
Fair Economist | 01.30.08 - 5:03 pm | #

Barley writes:
malabar - look at the 10 year. A joke!
Barley | 01.30.08 - 5:04 pm | #

Johnny Z writes:
Oh, the rough ride is coming, don't worry about that.

The objective here isn't to stop the rough ride, the objective here is to stall it until after the election.

If Ma and Pa America start getting reamed long, deep, and hard before November, who knows what they might do? They could conceivably (shudder) not send their incumbent Representatives and Senators back to Washington. Hell, if things get bad enough they might even fail to elect one of the anointed two as President.

This CANNOT be allowed to happen. Ma and Pa have to remain good little sheep, so that the powers that be can remain the powers that be.

Here, Ma and Pa, have 125 basis points of rate cuts. Here, Ma and Pa, have $150B+ in borrowed money (don't worry, YOU'LL have to pay it back later). Problems, no don't worry, no problems. After all, 125 basis point cuts and $150B+ "helicopter drop" checks are normal, aren't they?

Now sleep tight, Ma and Pa, don't forget to vote the way we tell you to, and better stock up on K-Y for next winter.
Johnny Z | 01.30.08 - 5:04 pm | #

ac writes:

My mom is getting screwed. She has interest bearing accounts, very safe investments, but she was planning to live on the interest. Meanwhile, since she has saved money all her life, she actually has to pay for all her expenses while her less thrifty neighbors get a free ride on all their prescriptions, etc.

The problem with this thinking is that the interest you get from a savings account is typically just meant to compensate for inflation.

Most people think that when they're gettting a 5% rate of return that's some kind of income, but that's the wrong way to think about it. If the value of the dollar is falling 5% a year, you're not getting any more buying power by receiving 5% APY. In fact because you're frequently taxed on that interest (and in effect are being taxed on compensation you recieve for inflation) you might really be better off with a lower rate of return combined with a lower rate of inflation (e.g. 1% APY with a 1% inflation rate).

ac | 01.30.08 - 5:04 pm | #

RayOnTheFarm writes:
S&P Lowers or May Cut Ratings on $534 Billion of Mortgage Debt
RayOnTheFarm | 01.30.08 - 5:05 pm | #

Marcus Aurelius writes:
K-Y Jelly is the next bubble market.
Marcus Aurelius | 01.30.08 - 5:06 pm | #

Barley writes:
Thanks RayOnTheFarm
Barley | 01.30.08 - 5:07 pm | #

Marcus Aurelius writes:
Ray:

$534 Bil? Just drop it over there next to the other big negative numbers. We're going to need more room.
Marcus Aurelius | 01.30.08 - 5:07 pm | #

Gary writes:
Holy crap, here is the pertinent text:

Standard & Poor's lowered or may cut ratings on $534 billion of residential mortgage securities and collateralized debt obligations.

The securities represent $270.1 billion, or 6,389 classes, of mortgage securities rated between January 2006 and June 2007 and $263.9 billion, or 1,953 classes, of CDOs, S&P said today in a statement.
Gary | Homepage | 01.30.08 - 5:08 pm | #

quartz writes:
It was interesting that today the WaPo had an article where they asked "the person in the street" about their view of the proposed refund checks. They covered a fair range of income types, but universally people said they thought it was a bad idea, would not help the economy and they would prefer not to get the money. The pols may find sending people free money does make them as happy as one might think. It appears this pandering is just a little too obvious.
quartz | 01.30.08 - 5:09 pm | #

Johnny Z writes:
$534B here, $534B there. Sooner or later we'll start talking real money.
Johnny Z | 01.30.08 - 5:09 pm | #

Shnaps writes:
Probably, but I find unintentional humor of a paystub program designed to help you get an unaffordable home advertising on this site entertaining.

You're not the only one, that guy's been at it for awhile now.

I think CR is being targeted since the site is now the top Google result for the phrase "jingle mail".
Shnaps | Homepage | 01.30.08 - 5:09 pm | #

Gary writes:
Am I mistaken, or is this the biggest one yet?
Gary | Homepage | 01.30.08 - 5:11 pm | #

barely writes:
The US Rupee isn't looking too robust. And the 10yr seems to be traveling north. Wait till we get the Jan CPI/PPI. I wouldn't be shocked to see the 10yr begin to test last year's highs. Another conundrum. This time it belongs to Ben. Economy in a corner 1000000 ways.

Nice visitor count. Suggest anything to you?
barely | 01.30.08 - 5:12 pm | #

CalculatedRisk writes:
Tank, RayOnTheFarm, thanks. Wow, I've posted that story. Half a trillion in one announcement.

Best to all.
CalculatedRisk | Homepage | 01.30.08 - 5:13 pm | #

Robyn writes:
NC Jim - I hear about Aunt Floozie from time to time on the financial networks. But Aunt Floozie has to stop being a patsy (and if she doesn't have the skills to stop - she should delegate portfolio management to someone who does have the skills). I have seen this again and again and again. Old people who won't buy anything longer than a 6 month CD - and who insist on buying from a B&M bank in their neighborhood - some place they can drive to. Of course - as driving abilities deterioriate - so does the range of available institutions.

Since 2001 - this has been a challenging investing environment for fixed income. Still - there are opportunities. When I took over management of my FIL's portfolio in 2002 when he moved into a skilled nursing facility - his portfolio - which was far from small - was yielding a little over 1%! Some from banks which were so cheap that didn't even mail out statements or make them available on line. I got the yield to over 5% - taking no credit quality risk - in short order.

BTW - I am mad about how savers take it on the chin too. I am sick of booms and busts caused by irresponsible people - whether they're CEOs of banks who don't do due diligence in their investments or people trying to live way way over their heads by borrowing more than they can ever afford to repay. But there are things people can do with their portfolios to minimize the pain. Robyn
Robyn | 01.30.08 - 5:17 pm | #

Liar'sPoker writes:
I think CR and Tanta should setup a soft dollar biz, kickback program....
Just indicate with your broker that this trade is viz crt, and they get a cut....
that would be some rev stream!
jeez ,idoc alone wowuld make them tons !
Liar'sPoker | 01.30.08 - 5:18 pm | #

realty-based lawyer writes:
Robyn -

Do you like ladders of tax-exempts?
realty-based lawyer | 01.30.08 - 5:26 pm | #

get sum writes:
Could someone provide a little commentary on how the S&P downgrades are related (or not) to the FGIC downgrade, and more generally how the S&P downgrades are related (or not) to the insurer downgrades. So much toxic waste is being downgraded it's a little hard to keep it all straight!

Thanks.
get sum | 01.30.08 - 5:27 pm | #

KP writes:
I keep thinking sooner or later risk is going to start pricing itself closer to reality. There has to be some widening of the spread baked in at some point....
KP | 01.30.08 - 5:34 pm | #

scav writes:
Reality is SO 20th century... :)
scav | 01.30.08 - 5:49 pm | #

winjr writes:
Yeah, right, FGIC goes to the gallows, and MBIA gets stay after stay after stay.
winjr | 01.30.08 - 5:59 pm | #

probert writes:
Wow... Billion? I glanced over the triple-digit number and I thought it was millions.. wow...sheesh

``This one, I didn't see coming,'' said Mark Adelson a consultant at Adelson & Jacob Consulting LLC in New York, and a former asset-backed bond analyst at Nomura Securities.

probert | 01.30.08 - 6:00 pm | #

Robyn writes:
AC - As long as the dollar is a first world currency - and it still is - the currency moves are kind of irrelevant. Like interest rates - they have been all over the place the last 25 years. Unless you're just talking about a little currency speculation - or you have 8 figures+ to invest - most of us in the US pay for most of what we buy in dollars. So the goal is to preserve our purchasing power in our home currency. I will leave it to those of you who are younger than I am to figure out how to do it as wage earners (one obvious way is to acquire skills which are rewarded in the workplace - fewer than 60% of all Florida 9th graders graduate from high school - that is obviously not a way to get these job skills).

As for older people who are living on investments - well there are a lot of things - including more sophisticated portfolio management. Last August - they were practically giving away high quality munis. How many of you bought?

BTW - in terms of currencies. The yen is going up due to the unwinding of the yen carry trade. The Euro is going up because the ECB is charged with only one thing - basically avoiding inflation. That comes at a price. We were Germany for 3 weeks about 6 months ago. And the price for that is unemployment - about 10% when we were there.

I really don't know how long the ECB will be hard-nosed about interest rates in the face of rising unemployment. But when it stops - then the US Dollar/Euro cross will stabilize or reverse. Because these currency moves are caused solely by interest rate differentials (and interest rate trends). The US dollar was at its strongest in terms of our travels in Europe during the early 80's - when our interest rates were through the roof - and our economy was in the toilet. Robyn

P.S. I think YOY CPI inflation is about 4% - but 6 month is less than 1%. Will have to take a look at my charts.
Robyn | 01.30.08 - 6:00 pm | #

Robyn writes:
RB Lawyer - I kind of wind up with a ladder - with uneven crooked rungs (smile) just because I've been doing fixed income for a long time (over 30 years). But it's not really an essential part of how I do things. I just buy really long with as much call protection as I can get when I think rates are good.

That's mostly because I think we've been in a bond bull market since the early 80's - and I think we still are in that bull market. Although now - I think we've been in a trading range part of the bull market for quite a few years.

I will know that the bull market is over when I have any muni bond from a larger issuer that doesn't get called at the first possible call date (or prerefunded). I only have 1 muni now that is callable that hasn't been called. City of North Lauderdale - 6.6 of '09. It was a tiny issue - and I think the only reason I still have it is the issuer would have to pay more to call the issue than it's worth.

I keep charts of lots of things - including munis. And I draw big lines across the tops and bottoms of trading ranges. IMO - in the last I don't know how many years - anything in high quality at or near 5% is a gift. And when it happens - like last August - I just have to see what's out there - for sale. Could be bonds due in 2022 - or 2035. Doesn't really matter. I just look at the individual bonds that I can buy - and whether they're good deals IMO. Like the Rolling Stones said - you can't always get what you want. So you settle for something that's priced right and available.

Note that last year - even when the treasury yield curve was flat or inverted - the muni yield curve was still pretty positive. So you got paid for buying long term paper.

Are you in Florida? If so - we have the added advantage of not worrying about state income taxes - or even intangible taxes these days. Which means we can shop nationally. As a practical matter though - only states with no/low income taxes (like Texas - Nevada - etc.) offer competitive muni rates. Of those - Texas is the largest issuer best I can tell.

I hate to be a shill for any financial entity - but - in terms of bond buying - I have been happiest recently with a small outfit called Zionsdirect. It uses a national bond clearing consortium called Bonddesk:
http://www.bonddeskgroup.com/ par...articipants.htm

Lots of firms use Bonddesk - but Zionsdirect apparently sells at cost with a $10.95 commission. You can look up its website and take a look at its "Bonds for Less". Fidelity and E*Trade also have pretty complete muni offerings - but higher markups/commissions.

I think this is much more information than you asked for - but I like talking about munis. It's much more fun than talking about the end of world (smile).

For those of you talking about the end of the world - I recommend buying tuna in cans and long dated little packets of mayo. Also one of those little portable gas stoves (the kind they use in cooking demos) plus a bunch of gas cannisters. I don't think the end of the world is nigh - but - living in Florida - we do keep a decent stock of hurricane supplies on hand all the time. Robyn
Robyn | 01.30.08 - 6:37 pm | #

Robyn writes:
P.S. To RB Lawyer - If you want to chat privately about muni bonds (don't think too many people here are interested) - look me up on FlyerTalk under the name robyng and write me a PM or email. Robyn
Robyn | 01.30.08 - 6:41 pm | #

johnny writes:
The credit rating agencies have more painful house cleaning to do before their creditability can be restored. After all, these agencies could be held liable for investor losses from securities backed by sub-prime mortgages; the rating agencies were paid by the underwrites to provide a rating. So, for the good of the market and their reputation, the credit rating agencies have no problem letting blood run in the street, buy sweeping the junk from the AAA shelf.
johnny | 01.30.08 - 6:53 pm | #

Sivaram Velauthapillai writes:
JOHNNY: "After all, these agencies could be held liable for investor losses from securities backed by sub-prime mortgages; "


Not they aren't. They just provide an opinion and clearly indicate that. Some clueless investor will sue them but likely won't win IMO. It would be just as dumb as if you sued a stock analyst after a stock that is rated "buy" falls...

Believe me... if the rating agencies were liable for subprime problems, they would be in even bigger problems than the monolines. They would be instantly bankrupt.
Sivaram Velauthapillai | Homepage | 01.30.08 - 7:46 pm | #

Circling the Drain writes:
"The credit rating agencies have more painful house cleaning to do before their creditability can be restored."

No conceivable number of Massengill disposables is going to restore their virginity.

The last paragraph of Ackman's letter says it beautifully:

"Lastly I encourage you to ask yourself the following question while looking at your image in the mirror:
Does a company deserve your highest Triple A rating whose stock price has declined 90%, has cut its dividend, is scrambling to raise capital, completed a partial financing at 14% interest (now trading at a 20% yield one week later), has incurred losses massively in excess of its promised zero-loss expectations wiping out more than half of book value, with Berkshire Hathaway as a new competitor, having lost access to its only liquidity facility, and having concealed material information from the marketplace?
Can this possibly make sense?"

cd
Circling the Drain | 01.30.08 - 8:43 pm | #

Sivaram Velauthapillai writes:
CIRCLING tHE DRAIN: "The last paragraph of Ackman's letter says it beautifully:"

Ackman is just talking his book. The rating agencies are supposed to be evaluating the credit quality of something. They should NOT look at market sentiment. Ackman is trying all his might to bankrupt the monolines including dumb things like asking rating agencies to look at market information.

If the rating agencies followed Ackman's "model", they wouldn't be providing anything insightful. All they will be doing is tracking the bond price, instead of evaluating it on its own merit... or put another way, why even have a rating and instead why not just look at bond yield to get its rating?

Ackman may turn out to be right about the bond insurers but his argument asking rating agencies to look at market factors is dumb...
Sivaram Velauthapillai | Homepage | 01.30.08 - 8:53 pm | #

FFDIC writes:
FT - Thain sees new capital infusions for monolines
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ 86f57e...00779fd2ac.html
FFDIC | 01.30.08 - 9:03 pm | #

Circling the Drain writes:
"Ackman is just talking his book."

Of course he is. But his (admittedly self-serving) argument goes far beyond a serious hit to market cap or bond yield. They're on their knees by any objective measure while carrying a AAA rating.

Did the very recent ACA clusterf**k not teach anyone anything?

cd
Circling the Drain | 01.30.08 - 9:12 pm | #

Sivaram Velauthapillai writes:
CIRCLING THE DRAIN: "Of course he is. But his (admittedly self-serving) argument goes far beyond a serious hit to market cap or bond yield. They're on their knees by any objective measure while carrying a AAA rating."


I have to disclose that I'm an Ambac shareholder so I'm talking my talk too. But ignore the fact that both of us are biased, does Ackman really know what he is proposing?

In his press release (not today's but the letter you quoted), he is basically saying that rating agencies should use market factors like sentiment and so forth. I mean, he is even proposing that rating agencies look at highly illiquid price measures (like surplus notes--a lot of which don't even trade publicly AFAIK).

I'm not saying that the monolines should or should not be rated AAA. That's for the rating agencies and others to determine. All I'm saying is that it is dumb to use market measures to place a rating on credit instruments. Think about it this way. Imagine you were trying to determine the rating of a bond based, not on the ability of the issuer to pay the interest, but on the market price of the bond. It makes no sense. That's what Ackman is proposing--and so far Moody's is being influenced by him. I don't care what rating the agencies give. Just use an objective measure and stick to it. It is hurting our business when they keep changing their mind and using "subjective" market measures, which AFAIK is not used for any other credit instrument (anyone confirm?).



CIRCLING THE DRAIN: "Did the very recent ACA clusterf**k not teach anyone anything?"

What about it?
Sivaram Velauthapillai | Homepage | 01.30.08 - 9:25 pm | #

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