Anonymous writes:
Ot, but related to the mess:

This may be why FTC didn't get involved in Bears antitrust confusion and lack of legality:

The White House named William Kovacic as the next chairman of the Federal Trade Commission, replacing Deborah Platt Majoras when she resigns at the end of the month.

Kovacic has served as one of the FTC's five commissioners since January 2006. He will be one of two remaining Republican commissioners after Majoras leaves.

"Bill is a free-market champion and a highly regarded adviser to emerging competition authorities around the globe," Majoras said in a statement. The White House announced Kovacic's new role Wednesday.

Last last month, Majoras announced she had accepted a job with Procter & Gamble Co., overseeing antitrust issues for the nation's largest consumer products maker.

Kovacic served as the FTC's general counsel from 2001 through 2004 and practiced antitrust law for the Bryan Cave law firm in the 1980s. He also taught contracts law at George Washington University Law School from 1999 until his appointment to the FTC.
Anonymous | 03.26.08 - 7:23 pm | #

ac writes:

Bagholder fight!

ac | 03.26.08 - 7:23 pm | #

girlbear writes:
and just how deep are the pockets of the banks these days?
girlbear | 03.26.08 - 7:30 pm | #

Nemo writes:
It's a lot fewer reasons if you just think in Euros.

Or barrels.

Or ounces.
Nemo | Homepage | 03.26.08 - 7:37 pm | #

bZb writes:
and just how deep are the pockets of the banks these days?

The pockets aren't very deep anymore, and the arms have gotten much shorter.
bZb | 03.26.08 - 7:38 pm | #

Ed writes:
Saw treasury secretary on CNBC today, said something like "anyone who walks away from mortgage they can afford to pay is a speculator". Does this apply to banks as well?
Ed | 03.26.08 - 7:45 pm | #

JJL writes:
Wow, lawsuits! This will get very interesting very quick.

OT;
It is the blog "The Mess That Greenspan Made" 3 year birthday today. Congrats to him. What date is Calculated Risk's birthday? Maybe we should have a celebration when it comes?
JJL | Homepage | 03.26.08 - 7:48 pm | #

Noble writes:
OT,
I am very interested in CR's recent call for slight, very slight optimism in the housing market.
One thing that we may not be factoring into this is what hasnt played out yet in terms of unemployment. If and When massive layoffs start occuring as the consumer recession starts feeding into a business recession - what does that do to the wanna be home buyer. In my business, I have some highly compensated sales staff that have been picking up some properties which they think are tremendous buys. However, their production has been coming down month over month. As this sort of thing feeds on itself what then..... would be interested in CR's feedback. I by no means consider myself to be as gloomy as some of the ppl on this board and would really like to see a bottom at some point in the near future hence my interest. I fear that the housing recession is only now starting to feed into the rest of the "real" economy and as this happens wont their be a negative feedback loop into housing? Opinions?
Noble | Homepage | 03.26.08 - 7:53 pm | #

crispy&cole writes:
"Does this apply to banks as well?"

Of course not! They have the fed as their backstop.
crispy&cole | Homepage | 03.26.08 - 7:57 pm | #

Tom Servo writes:
No more lawsuits, just put them in Thunderdome.

Two men enter, one man leaves.
Tom Servo | 03.26.08 - 8:03 pm | #

homedad43 writes:
Do you think that the banks contacted that 800 walk-away number?
homedad43 | 03.26.08 - 8:03 pm | #

ShortCourage writes:
Noble, I think you're right that the level of unemployment will determine how low the bottom is.

IMHO, the bottom will be very low because we came to rely on jobs from housing/finance/government, the very industries that are disintegrating right now. There will be a feedback loop, which will be as destructive on the way down as it was beneficial on the way up.
ShortCourage | 03.26.08 - 8:08 pm | #

Anonymous writes:
and would really like to see a bottom at some point in the near future

Noble, we're only about 1/4 of the way through this whole shebang, so fasten seat belts! Next are the Alt-A, Prime, Auto, and Credit Card situations.
Anonymous | 03.26.08 - 8:09 pm | #

crispy&cole writes:
Thornberg Speaks:

“The commercial market is due for its own hit,” Thornberg said.

"The coming recession will be as bad as that of 1991, he said."



http://www.bakersfield.com/137/s...ory/ 399227.html
crispy&cole | Homepage | 03.26.08 - 8:10 pm | #

halbhh writes:
Nobel, see my post near the bottom of the "OFEHO Releases..." thread re the fundamental price support of rent levels in a locality, calculated a bit ago (not 100% verified yet though).
halbhh | 03.26.08 - 8:10 pm | #

crispy&cole writes:
Who should I believe Seb/O-joe or Thornberg??
crispy&cole | Homepage | 03.26.08 - 8:10 pm | #

Anonymous writes:
Let's walk down the hall and see what's going down in criminal court...

http://business.theage.com.au/he...80327- 21sk.html

"A New York woman, whose lawyer said she has worked at hedge funds, has been charged with operating a $US2-million-a-year prostitution business."

The You Know You've Arrived Quote:

"Denise DesChenes, a spokeswoman for the former governor, said today in a telephone interview that 'Spitzer was not a client of Davis's.'"
Anonymous | 03.26.08 - 8:12 pm | #

ShortCourage writes:
Seems like a whole lot of lawsuit news the last few days:

Clearchannel vs. banks
FGIC vs. IKB/Calyon
Bear shareholders vs. whoever
Hopefully Congress vs. the Fed too

I guess this is a positive development w/ respect to the earlier comments about unemployment being key....there will be lots of jobs for lawyers.
ShortCourage | 03.26.08 - 8:17 pm | #

FFDIC writes:
Porsche, Sprint Unsettle Banks With Rush for Credit
"March 18 (Bloomberg) -- Citigroup Inc., JPMorgan Chase & Co. and the rest of the banking industry face a new drain on their capital.
Borrowers from Sprint Nextel Corp. to Porsche Automobil Holding SE to MGIC Investment Corp. are drawing on credit lines. JPMorgan analysts say it's the start of a trend that may force banks to raise as much as $40 billion to keep an adequate cushion against potential losses."
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/ne...6r5U& refer=home
FFDIC | 03.26.08 - 8:17 pm | #

mal writes:
Hey, has anybody seen Jas?

Protesters enter Bear Stearns building in New York
mal | 03.26.08 - 8:20 pm | #

crispy&cole writes:
Citadel Buying Back Loans at Discount: Who's Next?

The broadcasting concern is paying 80 cents on the dollar, an approach some think could spread.


In what apparently is the first case of a company repurchasing its bank debt for less than face value, Citadel Broadcasting is buying back its bank loans for 80 cents on the dollar, Bloomberg News reports. And some analysts are asking: Who's next?

http://www.cfo.com/article.cfm/109192
19/c_10910382?f=home_todayinfinance
crispy&cole | Homepage | 03.26.08 - 8:26 pm | #

Minh writes:
:-(

Germans Fear Meltdown of Financial System

By SPIEGEL Staff

Germany and other industrialized nations are desperately trying to brace themselves against the threat of a collapse of the global financial system. The crisis has now taken its toll on the German economy, where the weak dollar is putting jobs in jeopardy and the credit crunch is paralyzing many businesses.

http://www.spiegel.de/ internatio...,543588,00.html
Minh | 03.26.08 - 8:36 pm | #

lee Parker writes:
Why is everyone so down on CRE? From what I've seen over the past several years the conduits wrote very sound loans. They were tough and thorough in their underwriting. Nothing like subprime. That said, it seems that there is far too much retail space, everywhere.

Lee in Santa Rosa
lee Parker | 03.26.08 - 8:37 pm | #

stalky writes:
ot, but funny: http://icanhazbailout.com/?p=41
stalky | 03.26.08 - 8:42 pm | #

neil writes:
crispy&cole writes:
Thornberg Speaks:

“The commercial market is due for its own hit,” Thornberg said.

Thornberg, when quoted in print, is always understated. He'll then go into the reasons it could be a little better (and why that's unlikely) and then he'll go into reasons as to why it could be much worse... (with a decent chance of it being much worse).

So that is very scary!

So... $2.7B at $540 per lawyer hour...

Its worth spending up to 5 million lawyer hours fighting this!

The I-banks really need to start writing contengency clauses...

Got Popcorn?
Neil
neil | Homepage | 03.26.08 - 8:47 pm | #

Misean writes:
This is what Citigroup, Deutsche Bank AG, Credit Suisse Group, Morgan Stanley, Royal Bank of Scotland Group and Wachovia Corp. get for messing with their Bain, or is that Bane.

http://dictionary.reference.com/...com/browse/ bane

Cheers,
Misean | 03.26.08 - 8:52 pm | #

halbhh writes:
lee Parker writes:
Why is everyone so down on CRE? From what I've seen over the past several years the conduits wrote very sound loans. They were tough and thorough in their underwriting. Nothing like subprime. That said, it seems that there is far too much retail space, everywhere.

Lee in Santa Rosa

Lee, in a place we used to live, and visited occasionally, in just 2 short years from 2003-2005, Round Rock Texas was transfigured into a bizarre alien landscape, almost unrecognizable, with seemingly square miles (ok, not *quite* that huge) of new expansive endless retail....

It was just....really over the top.

RR is a 25 min to Austin, TX suburb, but really it's like enough retail for a city 5 times as big, imo.

What will happen now?
halbhh | 03.26.08 - 9:03 pm | #

Jack Staub writes:
Congress to give a public colonoscopy to the Fed, JPM, and BSC executives. Stay tuned.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/ne...wOfKIY& refer=us
Jack Staub | 03.26.08 - 9:03 pm | #

Jim writes:
We need the whole mess to get bogged down in the courts and stagnate unresolved for a couple of years. Just enough time to sink the whole economy and teach the stupid populace a much needed lesson. I mean the people put these leader where they were and are and didn't pay any attention, right? Pain is a goad to learning. Lots of pain. Lots of learning.
Jim | 03.26.08 - 9:04 pm | #

CalculatedRisk writes:
Noble, I was out for a walk and thinking about this issue. In general I think New Home sales are close to the bottom, but it's very possible that we could see a spike down from here because of the recession. If that happens, I'd expect sales to rebound quickly to the 600K level - but any growth from that level will be sluggish. The alternative is sales stay at around this level for a number of months.

Other scenarios are possible too, but I think those are two most likely.

Best to all.
CalculatedRisk | Homepage | 03.26.08 - 9:10 pm | #

Jim writes:
Another financial whizkid shown to be a fool by the Nerd from Nebraska. They never learn, do they?

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/ne...1UdY& refer=home
Jim | 03.26.08 - 9:12 pm | #

Jim writes:
CR, how many false bottoms have you encountered in your life? Thinking there is a bottom when there isn't one is not wise.
Jim | 03.26.08 - 9:14 pm | #

Misean writes:
The deal was approved in Sept. 07 by shareholders after the pot was sweetened.

Oh Glod, this stuff just keeps roiling.

"The buyout, announced in November 2006, was initially criticized by large investors as being priced too low. Clear Channel approved the purchase after Thomas H. Lee and Bain boosted their bid and offered investors a 30 percent equity stake in the new company. Shareholders voted in favor of the deal in September 2007. Breakup fees are as much as $600 million."

Cheers,
Misean | 03.26.08 - 9:15 pm | #

halbhh writes:
CR, something you might like: near the end of the "OFEHO Releases...." thread, I calculated the floor in housing prices for localities in relation to rents. cost-to-buy vs cost-to-rent. This ratio Price/Rents for localities is apparently available for a lot of cities (link in that post also).
halbhh | 03.26.08 - 9:19 pm | #

FFDIC writes:
Two Senate Panels to Investigate Bear Stearns Deal
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/2...ml? ref=business
FFDIC | 03.26.08 - 9:24 pm | #

Tom Stone writes:
Lee in SR,I also live in Sonoma county.Take a look at the number of Big box stores,the new lowe's on 116 and the multiple Home Depots,Friedman's,the new Kohl's etc.
Tom Stone | 03.26.08 - 9:26 pm | #

Misean writes:
The next capital ramp up for the War Shriek banks. Law suit reserves. It just keeps getting better.

Cheers,
Misean | 03.26.08 - 9:33 pm | #

Outsider writes:
Do you think that the banks contacted that 800 walk-away number?

Are they still in business? I tried to access their website but I don't think it's around anymore. (youwalkaway.com)
Outsider | 03.26.08 - 9:43 pm | #

Big ? writes:
I apologize for this OT post but I was wondering if anyone out there knows anything about the internals at the Citadel Hedge Fund over the last week or so. I have some information but the picture is incomplete. Ie. I don't want to be placed in a position where I am seen to be in Chicago starting rumors.
Big ? | 03.26.08 - 9:44 pm | #

ac writes:

Congress to give a public colonoscopy to the Fed, JPM, and BSC executives. Stay tuned.

Time to cook up a new sales pitch as to why our future depends on bailouts and how by saving Bear Stearns we're really saving homeowners all across America.

ac | 03.26.08 - 9:44 pm | #

Big ? writes:
My typing is bad -

I apologize for this OT post but I was wondering if anyone out there knows anything about the internals at the Citadel Hedge Fund in Chicago over the last week or so. I have some information but the picture is incomplete. Ie. I don't want to be placed in a position where I am seen to be starting rumors.
Big ? | 03.26.08 - 9:46 pm | #

Anonymous writes:
"ShortCourage writes:
Seems like a whole lot of lawsuit news the last few days"

Don't forget Merrill and ACA!!
Anonymous | 03.26.08 - 9:48 pm | #

Anonymous writes:
Oooh, ooh, I'll bite.

You mean the rumors that Citadel is having serious liquidity problems?
Anonymous | 03.26.08 - 9:50 pm | #

Big ? writes:
Let's just say that I am 100% certain about a couple of things. But I don't want to say that there are any issues until I have more information.
Big ? | 03.26.08 - 9:52 pm | #

mock turtle writes:
story of book, and economics-historian author, charles r morris, telling everybody who would listen, more than a year ago, that the US is headed for a financial crisis in 08.

story at npr

http://www.npr.org/templates/ sto...toryId=89123972
mock turtle | 03.26.08 - 9:55 pm | #

mbartv writes:
halbhbh

I like your stats and don't have any negative comments on the methodology. I can see a reason, though for "false positive" or "false unaffordable" readings in some areas e.g. Washington DC with large income disparity. The average income is low because of the many Lower income renters or legacy homeowners, but the sales are mostly to higher income folks in better neighborhoods. Hard to correct for. A place like Grand Rapids would be more uniform.
mbartv | 03.26.08 - 9:55 pm | #

Misean writes:
ac,

Our future depends on community. We need to stop focusing on the selfishness of who did what to whom. We need to pull together.

Some say that every institution in this country is in debt up to it's eyeballs, and essentially bankrupt. We need to leave these these terms behind as we come together.

We in the Federal gov't, in combination with the community on Wall Street, have designed buckets for all citizens. The ones we give to Wall Street are slightly different, as they are stuffed with freshly printed $100 bills, but all buckets have the same logo:

"Whip Insolvency Now!"

All citizens are requested to come together in bucket brigades and begin bailing out our problems. It is our belief that W.I.N. buckets we'll solve our commuity's crisis.

Cheers,
Misean | 03.26.08 - 9:57 pm | #

Big ? writes:
And in case anybody is interested, I have looked for all recent news stories and they have not said anything that is related to what I know.
Big ? | 03.26.08 - 10:00 pm | #

Sandy writes:
Misean,

Was chatting with the local coin dealer this PM. He noted that the drop in gold price last week flushed a huge number of sellers out of the woodwork.
Sandy | 03.26.08 - 10:08 pm | #

halbhh writes:
mbartv, interesting. Good point if the middle class is hollow in a locality. Can still consider cases like the $300K vs $2000 rent relation for upper mid range I imagine.
halbhh | 03.26.08 - 10:08 pm | #

david_in_ct writes:
halbhh,
i don't think it is a good idea to use median income to try and buy the median house. i would guess that the single biggest reason that folks don't buy a house is that they can not afford it. if that is the case then at the extreme you would have to look at the median income of the highest 2/3 of earnings, since only around 2/3's of households own homes.
david_in_ct | 03.26.08 - 10:10 pm | #

Misean writes:
Sandy,

Gold and Silver are holding up. Nothing goes up in value as a straight line. Things get over bought, and shorts and longs are always in combat.

I am, at this point, mildly concerned.

Use your own due dilly, as I always say.

Cheers,
Misean | 03.26.08 - 10:12 pm | #

homedad43 writes:
Misean:

You bring a tear to my eye.

But I keep thinking of that song, "there's a hole in the bucket, Dear Liza, Dear Liza..."

Change your moniker to master propagandist.
homedad43 | 03.26.08 - 10:12 pm | #

homedad43 writes:
Sandy/Misean:

Was in dealer this AM picking up purchase and in line behind folks selling gold coins and another pair trying to dicker over more for their silver that trying to move.

Thought about moving into a bit more silver.

We'll see.
homedad43 | 03.26.08 - 10:15 pm | #

halbhh writes:
david_in_ct, I agree. In that post I actually use an income of $66K as my test case to determine marginal tax rate and thus deduction advantage for the national median house price. The results are ratios that are mostly independent of income. For instance, if the marginal rate of a buyer of a median house was higher than for a $66K family, it makes only a small difference in the result. For instance, less than $1000/yr difference in costs, meaning not much effect on the resulting ratios.
halbhh | 03.26.08 - 10:16 pm | #

dryfly writes:
Congress to give a public colonoscopy to the Fed, JPM, and BSC executives. Stay tuned.

So do they have to drink that bottle of icky stuff the night before? And when they go in do they get the good drugs? I had a colonoscopy and the drugs were way better than those in the 70s... almost worth having the procedure again.

dryfly | 03.26.08 - 10:17 pm | #

halbhh writes:
david_in_ct, that is $66K being around $15K more than the national median household income at the moment.
halbhh | 03.26.08 - 10:17 pm | #

Tom Servo writes:
Calculated Risk:

What is your prediction for new home sales for 2008?

I totally agree with you that we are near the bottom, just curious what your thoughts were.

Thanks.
Tom Servo | 03.26.08 - 10:24 pm | #

andiron writes:
Drudgereports has a headline..

Home Equity default looming..story developing...

I thought CR gets those breaking news first
andiron | 03.26.08 - 10:25 pm | #

ac writes:

Our future depends on community. We need to stop focusing on the selfishness of who did what to whom. We need to pull together.

I agree.

But what gets me is the major problem we're facing now is a loss of trust in the financial markets.

And yet the response we're seeing is to protect precisely those people responsible for making the markets untrustworthy, and doing it in a fashion that's inherently deceptive.

I think we need to pull together, but I don't think we're at the point where we can trust each other enough to do that. That's a severe problem.

My uncle once gave a a homeless guy a ride to be helpful and got held up at gunpoint for his efforts.

Needless to say he never helped out any homeless people again. That sucks, and it shouldn't be that way, but at the same time I think it's foolish to pretend it's not.

We simply wouldn't be here if we were that naive.

ac | 03.26.08 - 10:28 pm | #

ac writes:

Oh, and am I taking people too seriously today?

I have people at work arguing that the solution to this problem is a big group hug.

I tell them if I'm in that group hug that they're getting pickpocketed.

ac | 03.26.08 - 10:31 pm | #

REBear writes:
Congress by questioning Paulson may be forcing him to accept their foreclosure avoidance fund [30B?]. IMO, Paulson wants to be persuaded.
REBear | 03.26.08 - 10:32 pm | #

Misean writes:
homedad43,

"Change your moniker to master propagandist."

Such flattery. But I' shall keep my current one.

;)

BTW, keep your eye on PM charts. Kitco's charts are free. May lag a bit, but a good resource.

Cheers,
Misean | 03.26.08 - 10:39 pm | #

Misean writes:
ac,

"Our future depends on community. We need to stop focusing on the selfishness of who did what to whom. We need to pull together.

I agree."

Oh...I don't. I was as snarky and as sarcastic as I could have been.

If I were to be serious about the community meme, I would suggest the responsible get together and head off the rush to reward the irresponsible.

Cheers,
Misean | 03.26.08 - 10:43 pm | #

BreakOut writes:
"Hey, has anybody seen Jas?"

Must be out hob-knobbing with Crooks and Dopes.
BreakOut | 03.26.08 - 10:51 pm | #

bluestatedon writes:
Isn't Bain Capital the Mittster's company?
bluestatedon | 03.26.08 - 10:52 pm | #

Misean writes:
BreakOut,

"Hey, has anybody seen Jas?"

Must be out hob-knobbing with Crooks and Dopes."

My understanding is that he is having dinner with Seb, and O-Joe. I'll get back to you with any details I find.

Cheers,
Misean | 03.26.08 - 10:52 pm | #

warlock writes:
ac,

I think all of this 'confidence' and 'trust' stuff being bandied about as the problem is well wide of the mark. We're talking about the trust a blind shopkeeper can have that the $100 bill he's just been handed isn't a bleached $1 bill fresh out of a near-photocopier experience.

Maybe there are solutions to this mess, and probably there aren't, but counterfeiting money is illegal for very good reasons, and Wall Street has being doing just the electronic equivalent of that for the last few years. Until that aspect of things gets recognised, nothing is going to be solved.
warlock | 03.26.08 - 10:55 pm | #

Anonymous writes:
"If I were to be serious about the community meme, I would suggest the responsible get together and head off the rush to reward the irresponsible."

We're out numbered by Oh about 9-1 I'd say.
Anonymous | 03.26.08 - 10:57 pm | #

dryfly writes:
Oh...I don't. I was as snarky and as sarcastic as I could have been.

Sheeesh - here I thought you were lobbying to have Congress send you a WIN bucket full of freshly printed C-Notes.

dryfly | 03.26.08 - 10:58 pm | #

Misean writes:
Here's Jas and Seb at diner. Not sure who is who.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y...h? v=YPSzPGrazPo

Cheers,
Misean | 03.26.08 - 10:58 pm | #

Barley writes:
Breakup fees are as much as $600 million."

Cheers,
Misean | 03.26.08 - 9:15 pm |

Now add in the lawyer fees, say 500M
Barley | 03.26.08 - 10:59 pm | #

AllenM writes:
Other than this, which seems to say that they are true vultures,
I don't see much weakness.

http://business.scotsman.com/bus...p- to.3906077.jp

Buying back their own debt for sub par strikes me as a good investment if they are doing well.

So lay it out, or let it go.

Someday this war's gonna end...
AllenM | 03.26.08 - 11:00 pm | #

Billy Hill writes:
Did anyone ever write a book about the Pecora "Stock Exchange Practices" hearings in the 1930's? They unearthed various skeletons, but I don't think the current senate has the will to do anything meaningful. If anything, any legislation passed now would IMHO be intended to pre-empt stronger measures by the next congress.
Billy Hill | 03.26.08 - 11:01 pm | #

Misean writes:
dryfly,

"Sheeesh - here I thought you were lobbying to have Congress send you a WIN bucket full of freshly printed C-Notes."

I don't actually qualify. I just get a W.I.N. bucket.

^&*&@$&@!

But if I did get one I would be all for it.

Cheers,
Misean | 03.26.08 - 11:03 pm | #

Barley writes:
Buying back their own debt for sub par strikes me as a good investment if they are doing well.

AllenM

C just bought back a wack of debt after visiting the window. I guess borrowing at the window is cheaper than holding the obligation to pay others for the next 10-15 years...besides if it fogs a mirror, the Fed will take it

(I guess we already know the ending dont we)
Barley | 03.26.08 - 11:04 pm | #

dryfly writes:
But if I did get one I would be all for it.

I'm sure if I got one it would be full of warm spittle... almost as valuable as C-Notes.

dryfly | 03.26.08 - 11:05 pm | #

Barley writes:
After CRs post on res. sales I was wondering about the sales agents...Im sorry this just has to hurt!!:

Forty-five percent of all agents affiliated with an active Orange County real estate office had no income last year from commissions, Veling said. Of the 55 percent of agents who had a sale last year, half did just one or two transactions apiece

http://www.ocregister.com/articl...-estate- percent
Barley | 03.26.08 - 11:08 pm | #

Misean writes:
dryfly,

"I'm sure if I got one it would be full of warm spittle... almost as valuable as C-Notes."

You got a problem with RMBS, CDO's, and CDO^2's?

How unpatriotic. We're back tracing your IP address. Subversives such as you you need to be labled enemy combatants and silenced.

Thank GLOD! for the shrub boy maladministration.

Cheers,
Misean | 03.26.08 - 11:09 pm | #

Barley writes:
Thank GLOD! for the shrub boy maladministration.

Cheers,
Misean

Someone is feeling better! Thanks for that
Barley | 03.26.08 - 11:10 pm | #

dryfly writes:
You got a problem with RMBS, CDO's, and CDO^2's?

LOL... ya that would qualify as warm spittle.

dryfly | 03.26.08 - 11:10 pm | #

Barley writes:
I have not kept up w/ the USD for a few days...where are we?
Barley | 03.26.08 - 11:12 pm | #

RE writes:
USD DX = 71.475. Sliding lower again...
RE | 03.26.08 - 11:15 pm | #

Misean writes:
Barley, dryfly;

Thanks B...time heals.

dryfly,

You think it is warm? I'm thinking a lower temp.

Barley,

"I have not kept up w/ the USD for a few days...where are we?"

We are here:

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=N...?s=NYBOT_DX& v=s

Dollar

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=F...v=s&w=5&t=l& a=2

Important $/Y

Cheers,
Misean | 03.26.08 - 11:16 pm | #

dryfly writes:
I have not kept up w/ the USD for a few days...where are we?

Versus EUR - getting weaker - almost $1.59

Versus JPY - bouncing around 100 plus minus 1... though lower today like 98 & change.

dryfly | 03.26.08 - 11:19 pm | #

dryfly writes:
You think it is warm? I'm thinking a lower temp.

LOL... ya probably. I don't think I want to touch it to find out. That colander hat have a safety shield?

dryfly | 03.26.08 - 11:22 pm | #

Misean writes:
dryfly,

"That colander hat have a safety shield?"

Yes, the Super Colander Tin Foil Hat can plasmatize the air around it and provide a temporary electromagnetic shield. However, I have to use the the large battery one. It gets kinda hot...not much fun to wear, as the belt pack weighs like 60 pounds.

;)

Cheers,

P.S. I am preparing actual pictures of it. I figure they'll be a good laugh.

Cheers,
Misean | 03.26.08 - 11:27 pm | #

REBear writes:
China's Shanghai Composite drops 3.4% to 3,483.56.

46% down from peak. Can we say severe slow down?
REBear | 03.26.08 - 11:28 pm | #

christofay writes:
"Congress to give a public colonoscopy to the Fed, JPM, and BSC executives. Stay tuned."

Congress needs the better quality prostitute to find its ass as Congress couldn't find its ass with its own two hands.

This Congress was hired to end the war in Iraq, and how has it done there?

Congress can try to beat up a couple of baseball players, but when it comes to the saints of innovative finance sphere and the Fed, oh, come on.

Where da campaign contributions coming to come from?
christofay | 03.26.08 - 11:31 pm | #

AllenM writes:
Make that 4% down in Shanghai.

Nothing like a good honest bubble burst;-}

Tomorrow will be very interesting to watch here in the land of eternal optimism.

I wonder how long it will take until we reach our next island of stability for the markets and the dollar...I wonder what Banker is doing? Waiting for Feds to bail him out, or safe in swiss francs in the Bankerdome?

Someday this war's gonna end...
AllenM | 03.26.08 - 11:43 pm | #

FFDIC writes:
NY Times - Equity Loans as Next Round in Credit Crisis
"Little by little, millions of Americans surrendered equity in their homes in recent years. Lulled by good times, they borrowed — sometimes heavily — against the roofs over their heads."
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/2...ml? ref=business
FFDIC | 03.26.08 - 11:44 pm | #

david_in_ct writes:
Refi Apps exploding, purchase apps up too:

WASHINGTON, D.C. (March 26, 2008) — The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending March 21, 2008. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, was 965.9, an increase of 48.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from 652.0 one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 46.1 percent compared with the previous week and was up 41.1 percent compared with the same week one year earlier.

The Refinance Index increased 82.2 percent to 4255.2 from 2335.2 the previous week and the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 10.6 percent to 403.7 from 365.0 one week earlier. The Conventional Purchase Index increased 10.7 percent while the Government Purchase Index (largely FHA) increased 10.1 percent. On an unadjusted basis, the Purchase Index increased 10.4 percent to 449.2 from 406.9 the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Conventional Index increased 54.3 percent to 1310.4 from 849.0 the previous week, and the seasonally adjusted Government Index increased 21.1 percent to 391.7 from 323.5 the previous week.
david_in_ct | 03.26.08 - 11:47 pm | #

christofay writes:
You wanna see panic, how about Congress denied access to viagra, that would cause a panic

in Congress
christofay | 03.26.08 - 11:48 pm | #

plschwartz writes:
Spitzer redux
The NYTimes is still doing its best to bury Spitzer, but is giving Paterson a free pass on sex, maybe drugs and a few other foibles.
So first the theme:
As people stop asking "Why did he do it?", now is a good time to ask: Why was the Department of Justice really investigating Eliot Spitzer?
http://www.alternet.org/rights/80543/

Then the counterpoint
On February 14, Spitzer published a signed article in the influential Washington Post titled, "Predatory Lenders' Partner in Crime: How the Bush Administration Stopped the States From Stepping In to Help Consumers."

That article, laying clear blame on the administration for the development of the subprime crisis, appeared the day after his ill-fated tryst with the prostitute at the Mayflower Hotel. Just a coincidence? Spitzer wrote, "In 2003, during the height of the predatory lending crisis, the OCC invoked a clause from the 1863 National Bank Act pre-empting all state predatory lending laws, thereby rendering them inoperative. The OCC also promulgated new rules that prevented states from enforcing any of their own consumer protection laws against national banks."

In his article, Spitzer charged, "Not only did the Bush administration do nothing to protect consumers, it embarked on an aggressive and unprecedented campaign to prevent states from protecting their residents from the very problems to which the federal government was turning a blind eye."

Bush, said Spitzer right in the headline, was the "predator lenders' partner in crime". The president, said Spitzer, was a fugitive from justice. And Spitzer was in Washington to launch a campaign to take on the Bush regime and the biggest financial powers on the planet. Spitzer wrote, "When history tells the story of the subprime lending crisis and recounts its devastating effects on the lives of so many innocent homeowners the Bush administration will not be judged favorably."

With that article, Spitzer may well have signed his own political death warrant.
Asia Times

See maybe all that Spitzer chatter round here was on point
plschwartz | 03.26.08 - 11:50 pm | #

christofay writes:
"Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, was 965.9, an increase of 48.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from 652.0 one w...." yadda, yadda, yadda

Perhaps it is an echo mini bubble, most folks haven't learned yet that weekend real estate speculating burns people. It's not going straight to zero, it's not going to zero, but it will continue to go down and will draw in more people to burn or singe on its way
christofay | 03.26.08 - 11:52 pm | #

crispy&cole writes:
MILF alert!!!

Per Meredith: MER writedown $5 billion and UBS $11 billion in the first qtr.

I want to marry that woman!!!
crispy&cole | Homepage | 03.26.08 - 11:57 pm | #

christofay writes:
Spitzer probably was targeted, an increasingly powerful democrat practicing demogogue for the everyman and not for terror, dangerous stuff.

If we spitzed everyone in the Washington Madam's little black book we'd be out of a Congress, several layers of the national bureaucracy, and a disappeared Washington DC bureau of the national media

And then wouldn't we be lost.

I think political posts are discouraged here, but you can see how that relates to our national economics.
christofay | 03.26.08 - 11:58 pm | #

Jack Staub writes:
Senate letters requesting for participation in the public colonoscopy:

http://online.wsj.com/article/ SB...=googlenews_wsj
Jack Staub | 03.27.08 - 12:04 am | #

homedad43 writes:
crispy&cole writes:
MILF alert!!!

---------------------------------

Y'know, I thought about that exact comment earlier today but couldn't bring myself to write it.
homedad43 | 03.27.08 - 12:06 am | #

REBear writes:
Is this when China & Japan start dumping US dollars to save their hind?
REBear | 03.27.08 - 12:09 am | #

jg writes:
UBS writedown of $11B? Shoot, they are a counterparty (along with Credit Suisse) to the swaps underlying SDS.

Okay to go under, UBS, but please put such off for a quarter or two.
jg | 03.27.08 - 12:17 am | #

dryfly writes:
Is this when China & Japan start dumping US dollars to save their hind?

Only when they are fully convinced they can't export here anymore - then what's the point of holding huge $ reserves?

But that will only happen if they believe they have fully decoupled... have they?

Remember, their central banks didn't hold dollars for an investment - they did it keep their currency low & export here - once that option is gone (either dollar too weak to support or they feel they have better options elsewhere) then they will start moving out of dollars in earnest. But not until.

dryfly | 03.27.08 - 12:21 am | #

El Cliffo writes:
Here is the clearest and best explanation of the mortgage crisis I've read to date:

http://www.financialsense.com/fs.../2008/ 0320.html
El Cliffo | 03.27.08 - 12:22 am | #

Anonymous writes:
From a german link way above>>


"I no longer have faith in the ability of the markets to heal themselves," Deutsche Bank CEO Josef Ackermann confessed in a speech delivered last Monday in Frankfurt.

BMW serves as an example of the consequences of the weak dollar. According to an analysis requested by CEO Norbert Reithofer, his company loses €80 million ($123 million) for each cent the dollar falls. This led to losses of more than €500 million ($770 million) last year. Now BMW plans to cut 8,100 jobs, most of them in Germany, while at the same time investing $750 million (€487 million) to expand its plant in Spartanburg, South Carolina, where it will add 500 new positions.

In the face of US resistance, Berlin failed in its attempt to introduce tighter regulations for hedge funds. "But now," says an advisor to Chancellor Angela Merkel, "even the Americans see the issue in a new light."
Anonymous | 03.27.08 - 12:22 am | #

Nemo writes:
AllenM --

I wonder what Banker is doing?

My theory is that Banker is Jamie Dimon.

:-)
Nemo | Homepage | 03.27.08 - 12:45 am | #

Anonymous writes:
Taxpayers May Be Liable From Bear, Mortgage Rescue (Update3)

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/ne...92GQ& refer=home

Officials ``are playing with fire,'' said Allan Meltzer, a Fed historian and economics professor at Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh. ``With good luck, none of these liabilities will come due. We can't expect that good luck, and we haven't had it.''


Senate Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus, a Montana Democrat, and Charles Grassley of Iowa, the committee's ranking Republican, gave Fed officials and JPMorgan executives a March 28 deadline to describe the assets involved in the transaction.

``Americans are being asked to back a brand-new kind of transaction, to the tune of tens of billions of dollars,'' Baucus said in a statement today. ``It's the Finance Committee's responsibility to pin down just how the government decided to front $30 billion in taxpayer dollars for the Bear Stearns deal, and to monitor the changing terms of the sale.''

The Delaware company will liquidate the assets over 10 years, with JPMorgan absorbing the first $1 billion in losses, with the Fed bearing any that remain. Any such losses would hurt the Fed's balance sheet, and ultimately the taxpayer, because they would reduce the stipend the Fed pays to the Treasury from earnings on its portfolio. The dividend was $29 billion in 2006.

The average recovery on failed bank assets is 40 cents on the dollar over a six-year period, according to Drexel's Mason, a former official at the Treasury's Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. Nobody knows if that historical benchmark will hold for the Fed portfolio because the assets haven't been disclosed, they have already been marked down and the Fed has 10 years to recover value.

``Over 10 years, you might eventually get your money back,'' said Janet Tavakoli, president of Tavakoli Structured Finance Inc. in Chicago.

Still, ``that isn't costless to the Fed, it isn't the same as holding Treasuries,'' she said. On some low-documentation loans, ``you are going to be lucky to get 40 percent.''
Anonymous | 03.27.08 - 12:47 am | #

Anonymous writes:
Please provide us with a memorandum describing the assets to be secured by the
Federal Reserve in relation to the transaction, including, but not limited to the type of
assets, face value and book value of the assets, types of mortgages underlying the assets
(e.g., adjustable rate, alt-A, subprime, etc.).

3. Please confirm all the parties (including private and government agencies that
participated in negotiations) (collectively referred to herein as “Parties”) to the
transaction.

4. Please provide us with copies of all documents that have been or that the parties
intend to file with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission or any other regulatory
body and any term sheets that relate to....


http://www.senate.gov/~finance/

....or what? What is the law here if they don't comply?

Maybe this:

The Finance Committee has
jurisdiction over U.S. debt and the Treasury-backed securities used to guarantee the Bear
Stearns deal.
Anonymous | 03.27.08 - 12:53 am | #

Drew writes:
``Americans are being asked to back a brand-new kind of transaction, to the tune of tens of billions of dollars,'' Baucus said in a statement today. ``It's the Finance Committee's responsibility to pin down just how the government decided to front $30 billion in taxpayer dollars for the Bear Stearns deal, and to monitor the changing terms of the sale.''

These hearings, if held, will shed way too much light on the innards of the ArthurAndersonAccounting (oh snap - is this what AAA rated means?) being employed by ALL the banks.
Drew | Homepage | 03.27.08 - 12:57 am | #

Tom Stone writes:
As far as new home sales being at or near the bottom,i think it is too early to tell.If this were a normal downturn,then yes iI could see new home sales picking up as prices dropped for a couple of more years.BUT,resets,job losses,inflation,and especially changes in attitude toward home ownership can all have effects.And as Rob Dawg and others have pointed out much of the new stock is badly built,of inappropriate size and design and built in the wrong places...aging boomers do not need 5BR,4BA energy hogs full of black mold five miles east of Lodi
Tom Stone | 03.27.08 - 12:57 am | #

Anonymous writes:
The U.S. Senate Committee on Finance (or, less formally, Senate Finance Committee) is a standing committee of the United States Senate. It concerns itself with matters relating to the bonded debt of the United States;

The Committee on Finance is one of the original committees established in the Senate. First created in 1815 as a select committee and known as the Committee on Finance
Anonymous | 03.27.08 - 1:00 am | #

Barley writes:
So sorry what is a "MILF alert"
Barley | 03.27.08 - 1:04 am | #

sk writes:
OT:
A quick refer-back to the 540 page pdf report by the bankruptcy court examiner of New Century. Its really well written ( page 40 and counting ).

Because of a deep interest in flying I usually read the NTSB reports on flying accidents - the one on ValueJet and the Alaska Airways crash off the coast of SoCal are particularly memorable. Further details at www.ntsb.gov.

So far, this report reaches that level of detachment and clarity.

These examiners and investigators are often the unsung heroes of the bureaucracy and should be recognized more often.

-K
sk | 03.27.08 - 1:04 am | #

barely writes:
Don't you grouchy bears know that March Madness is in full swing and the markets always go up during this event? Sheesh.
barely | 03.27.08 - 1:12 am | #

El Cliffo writes:
MILF is one of the Federal Reserve's new lending facilities created last week during the Bear Stearns crisis. It's an acronym that
stands for
Maxiumum
Insolvency
Lending
Facility
El Cliffo | 03.27.08 - 1:23 am | #

christofay writes:
Ah, MILF is from the Weeds teevee show, Mother I would like to F....
christofay | 03.27.08 - 1:26 am | #

rent_to_own writes:
'Underwater, ruthless banks walk away from losses.'

Still waiting for this headline to appear. With particular emphasis on the poor owners of Clear Channel, who will no longer earn the profit they so richly deserve, since they richly deserve it.
rent_to_own | 03.27.08 - 1:32 am | #

malabar writes:
Anyone know where one can find close prices for recent completed real estate transactions specifically in N. Calif?

I am trying to get the data to build a graph to see the trend line in the spread between listing and close prices.
malabar | 03.27.08 - 2:00 am | #

Ziggurat writes:
>Barley writes:
Breakup fees are as much as $600 million."<

The main point, Barley. No way this deal gets funded. The suit is over who pays the breakup fees.
Ziggurat | 03.27.08 - 2:18 am | #

Bill Melater writes:
Mortgage
Investors
Liquidity
Fund

There are some fairly arcane acronyms around here, but I thought everyone knew that one.

EURUSD at $1.5792 (most recent high $1.5903 on 3/17/08)


Bill Melater | 03.27.08 - 2:21 am | #

foo writes:
So MILF not equal to "Mortgage adjusters I'd Like to F&"

Or related to NILFs.
foo | 03.27.08 - 2:21 am | #

Bill Melater writes:
Depends on your leverage, I suppose.
Mrs. Melater might take a dim view to any inclinations in that department. I wonder, would Fondle be a material transgression of merely technical one?
Bill Melater | 03.27.08 - 2:29 am | #

fallon writes:
MarketWatch
Clear Channel: Judge grants restraining order against banks
By Steve Goldstein
Last update: 3:49 a.m. EDT March 27, 2008
LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Clear Channel Communications
(CCU) said a Texas judge granted a temporary restraining order for banks not interfere with or thwart consummation of a planned $19 billion buyout by private-equity firms Thomas H. Lee Partners LP and Bain Capital Partners LLC. "We are pleased that the banks and the purchasers will now be able to move quickly to complete the loan documents and fund the merger," Clear Channel said in a statement.
fallon | 03.27.08 - 4:39 am | #

fallon writes:
19 billion dollar "consummation"....I guess the banks are going to get f*cked by court order. Apologies for the coarse language.
fallon | 03.27.08 - 4:43 am | #

burnside writes:
Why do I feel a Texas restraining order is merely the opening salvo?
burnside | 03.27.08 - 5:16 am | #

rsj writes:
Bill Melater

I guess it depends on the individual wife. To be on the safe side I would suggest you assume any f word be treated as a material transgression. Fondle, Flirt, f$#@ etc.
rsj | 03.27.08 - 5:24 am | #

Bill Melater writes:
I hear ya, rjs. Oddly enough? (not to me) Mrs. Melater is the only milf I've ever encountered. 22 years of bliss. Not that I'm not given to saying stupid things occasionally... like above.
Bill Melater | 03.27.08 - 5:43 am | #

Bill Melater writes:
Found at TBP...
Grant Calls Fed's Balance Sheet an `Economist Nightmare': Video

Devastating.


Bill Melater | 03.27.08 - 6:12 am | #

pd130 writes:
Did anyone ever write a book about the Pecora "Stock Exchange Practices" hearings in the 1930's?

Galbraith drew on them for The Great Crash.
pd130 | 03.27.08 - 6:36 am | #

Yoringe writes:
Barley writes:
So sorry what is a "MILF alert"

Mothers I Like to Frighten.. think somethings to do with islamofascists or so :-))))
Yoringe | 03.27.08 - 7:16 am | #

12th Percentile writes:
OT: ugly numbers for lennar

Sales fell 62 percent to $1.06 billion from $2.79 billion in the year-ago period. The average selling price fell 8 percent.

Deliveries of new homes were down 60 percent to 3,596 homes. New home orders were down 57 percent to 3,045, with a cancellation rate of 26 percent.
12th Percentile | 03.27.08 - 8:20 am | #

12th Percentile writes:
also, NY times article on home equity. with fun charts.

Americans owe a staggering $1.1 trillion on home equity loans — and banks are increasingly worried they may not get some of that money back.
12th Percentile | 03.27.08 - 8:33 am | #

Noble writes:
OT,

Thank you CR and ShortCourage for a couple of interesting views. Halbbh - interesting analysis.

I am seeing the recession start to come into its own in the business cycle in the US (our business for one - witness Oracle's not so thrilling numbers last night for another - we're in the consulting side of Oracle's products). At the moment, a lot of it (the slowdown) is expectations but real consumer slowdown is also starting to bite. IT magazines are filled with front page recession articles.

My personal opinion is that the housing recession started 3 years ago, the financial recession started about 9 months ago, the real consumer recession probably started 3-5 months ago. The real business recession is starting right about now. The effects of the last two that will feedback into housing sales. I wouldn't be surprised to see CR's scenario 1 of a "spike down" with quick stabilization around current levels play out over the next 9 months or so. Of-course with an over-active Fed - who the hell knows which scenario might work. I just hope that when the next recovery eventually does come the dollar will still be worth something (for those people who don't have the luxury of hedging against inflation (the shadowstats.com version not the government's).
Noble | Homepage | 03.27.08 - 8:52 am | #

bZb writes:
You guys are still stuck in that recession thing. The futures are rallying! Happy day(s)...
bZb | 03.27.08 - 8:56 am | #

psychodave writes:
Bill Melater | 03.27.08 - 6:12 am
Thanks for that great link. I enjoyed it.
psychodave | 03.27.08 - 9:03 am | #

Journeyman writes:
Mommy, mommy, the bad bank took my liquidity event!
Journeyman | 03.27.08 - 9:41 am | #

robster writes:
Are the banks really being hypocritical by trying to walk away from Clear Channel, as suggested by some here?

I don't think so. They are making a business decision to risk breach of contract and damages as well as damage to reputation. Homeowners are free to make the same decisions...and suffer similar consequences.

I agree, though, that it is idiotic for policy makers to condemn homeowners who can make payments, but choose to walk away out of self interest. Next time maybe lenders will be a little smarter (yeah, right).
robster | 03.27.08 - 10:28 am | #

las writes:
Misean,

Your W.I.N. ("Whip Insolvency Now!") buckets are a great idea! They're also useful for another worthy campaign, "Whip Inflation Now". When the money might be collected up again.
las | 03.27.08 - 10:58 am | #

ExMBS Lawyer writes:
Texas judge entered a TRO this morning enjoining banks from failing to fund or otherwise interfering with consumation of the merger. This fight should be fun to watch.
ExMBS Lawyer | 03.27.08 - 11:11 am | #