The last clipper brought us 4" (in Frederick) instead of the forecast for less than an inch. The last storm brought us 6" instead of the inch or two that was forecast. So, perhaps this clipper will be more than an nuisance 
Erick-
AND today you got a little snow shower activity (courtesy of the lakes) when the forecast was for mostly sunny skies! =P
The wind woke me up! At least there is one more chance for snow.
here's hoping this clipper is a big "nuisance"!
We think it's cold here- go to upstate NY.. My mom e-mailed. Up home ( upstate NY) schools are closed.She said with wind it is -23.
yes minus 23, dang thats frickin cold.
Up in Caribou, Maine, the weather forecasters were saying it feels like -55 F. Brr.
I'm thinking snow day in PG!
anon, shhh.... Don't say "SD" around here... you'll wake southside and he'll start ranting on the injustices we're causing by letting the riffraff kids have a day off school causing them to be forever ungrateful and thus continuing the downward spiral of society....
Thats the lamest snowfall chart I have ever seen. 25 percent of nothing. 25 percent of 1 inch. 25 percent of less than an inch and 25 percent of 2 to 111 inches... If you want to forecast the weather, you have to sometimes take chanches and be wrong. I'm going to stick with the NWS and t.v. outlets, which by the way are sticking their necks out with a 1 to 2 or 2 to 4 forecast. I respect that much more.
Fabio:
You can't read the chart in a vacuum - you have to read it with the text. Taking into account the test, you realize 2+ means a bit over 2, maybe 3" in some favored spots that get a burst.
Further, this is a probabilistic forecast, which is different than what most outlets put out. If you look at the forecast, its about a 75% chance of 1-3 inches, which is pretty in line with NWS and other outlets. So, CapWx could easily say "1-3 inches" and be done. Instead, they give us a more detailed forecast that shows where lack of forecast confidence plays in, and lays out all the possible scenarios.
Personally, I'd much rather have this sort of detailed forecast than "1-3 inches of snow expected."
Fabrio-- We're giving you the most credible, responsible information based on the limits of science. If you read between the lines, we're telling you that most likely scenario is 1-2" of snow, but that you cannot rule out something less or something more. Perhaps Matt should've spelled that out more -- that would be fair criticism. Tonight, we will provide a deterministic forecast (i.e. exactly what we think the accumulation will be), but we'll also indicate the other possibilities.
You should understand that the other outlets, if they're telling you it's GOING to be 1-2" or 2-4" aren't TELLING YOU THE WHOLE STORY and ARE NOT COMMUNICATING THE UNCERTAINTY.
We're dedicated to doing this.
Thanks for the probabalistic forecast CapWx!
Too bad that this is another "dusting to two inches" clipper, when I'm still looking for the "ten to eighteen-plus inch superstorm"! Problem seems to be that the Gulf of Mexico has little to no vorticity of ANY sort. Perhaps we'll "luck out" and get something a bit more like Veterans' Day, 1987! Some of our more interesting thundersnow "bursts" have occurred at just this time of year!
The "Canadian Weather at a Glance" map which looked so promising for our future yesterday now has a mere 1030 mb high over the central Northwest Territories, and I'm wondering how that 1050 mb high of yesterday "weakened" so suddenly! Nevertheless, temperatures up there are still running in the minus twenties Celsius and that's somewhat promising. However that "fifties and rain" forecast for our upcoming weekend is rather discouraging to say the least.
Note on ENSO climatology: Generally "La Nina" winters tend to be a disappointment. Apparently our "bumper" winters fall into the "La Nada" category with a possible weak slant toward either El Nino or La Nina. Seems as though a winter strongly to either extreme proves to be a disappointment. It will be interesting to see what the swing to La Nina does for our summer season. Let's hope we don't have another 2005-style hurricane season.
Anyone know what some of the snowier clippers have left us here in DC? I am curious. For some reason, I remember as a kid getting 2-4 inches regularly from clippers. Maybe that's because I don't remember much from my childhood, except for being born.
Thank you for pointing out that we are 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. We were the same magnitude ABOVE NORMAL back in Dec.-Jan.
John Andre has his BLOWTORCH scale; while I haven't developed a FREEZER scale yet, this would surely be a FREEZER day.
I'm ready for Spring - last Friday was a major tease!
Low of 15 this morning, preparing the ground for whatever falls!
KP-Biggest one I remember off the top of my head is the one we got RIGHT after the Bliz of '96. Think it was that wed, they forcasted a dusting or so and we got 3-6 inches on top of the 1-2ft we already had on the ground....then, if I recall we were supposed to get 8-10 more that friday.....ended up mainly sleet/freezing rain after 2-4.......ahh....my favorite winter of all time.....without a doubt!
Hhmmm..then again, didn't we just have more then the one I mentioned on Feb 25th of this year? Oh well, such is my memory at 41 years of age! 
Is Capital Weather going to put up a map that shows the projected track of the clipper and/or accumulation map?
Thx!
OT question for Jaime, Matt, or anyone else on the staff who might be knowledgeable about this particular issue:
I'm looking to get a website up and running for my upcoming wedding this summer, and I've already generated most of the graphics in photoshop cs2 and am using dreamweaver 8 to publish, but I've decided to go with a blogger style format for the body of the homepage, much like what you guys have here at capwx.com. Which blogger are you using (if any)? How easy is it to manipulate/customize? Please let me know when you get a spare moment!
on topic: Doug Hill has frequently mentioned in the past few days that a "sea-change" pattern shift will occur starting this weekend into week. Any idea whether this is of a permanent nature? Or still progressive, yielding eventually to another shot of bitter air like we're having now?
didn't the groundhog hog NOT see his shadow??
Virginia schools won't have a snowday.
SOL testing is taking place today and tomorrow for 5, 8, and 11th grades.
Did you really mean NorthEAST of the area in the SLBC?
May be a fun day tomorrow.
Kalorama.....typically clippers give us 1-3"...some stronger ones up to 5-6".....last mega clipper was 3/9/99 which gave us 8-10", but those are 1 in 15 yr type events
Iammrben.....Email one or more of us and we can guide you.....
Nice surprise, can't wait to get the snow lover crew together again tomorrow.
Chase...I removed the language of northeast since guidance has changed....areas of enhancement look to be well to our east and well to our west..we will pinpoint later....
I would not be at all surprised if we don't make it above 30 today...and at this point I would be shocked if we make it above freezing.
This (and tonight's very low temperatures) will be laying the ground work for most of the snow to stick even despite the increasing March sun angle.
(Matt, I stand corrected; I now, too, believe we won't make it above 32 tomorrow!)
As things stand right now, how much snow can I expect in Laurel MD from the clipper? Thanks!
Just got back from taking my 16 year old son to get his four wisdom teeth removed. He looks a bit rough but it went well. Thank God for modern dentistry and Vicodin!
I think that when we tease the CapWx guys about snow forecasts and accuracy, etc., we should remember that these are mets (not hobbiests) who are doing real forecasts and have standards and protocols to ahere to within their profession. They do a great job and they do it for free. It's great to have a place like this to come to for weather discussions.
I am really hoping that we get lucky again up here in northern Frederick county and get 4" like we got from the last clipper. I realize that it is not likely though it is possible. Still only 21F here today (at 11:55am in Walkerville).
Hope everyone is having a great day!
Glad that finally posted, Haloscan ate the first two attempts at that post. I wonder if the folks at Haloscan understand just how much their application sucks?
Snow fall accumulation map later today?
Thanks, CapWx, for doing your best to explain weather matters to us. I always preferred teaching that actually wanted me to learn something (like how to make decisions in the face of uncertainty) to the teaching that just wanted me to nod and accept (like a bland ..."75% chance of 1-3" of snow...").
Thanks for doing what you're doing!
John -- We probably won't post a snowfall map until sometime this evening.
The groundhog lied!!
And besides, how pathetic is it when people are watching the shadow of a groundhog, for God's sake!
Seriously, why watch the shadow of the groundhog, when you can just get a "magic 8 ball" from CVS?
WOOOOHOOOOOOO!!! TAKE THAT YOU SPRING PEOPLE!!!
Question: How is the angle of the sun significant when the weather outlets are predicting snowfall or snow/rain to last all day from pre-dawn into the next night? Wouldn't that make it too cloudy or otherwise mostly block the sun from melting accumulation?
Just checked the forecast for Roanoke, VA tomorrow.
A slight chance of showers after 9am. Partly cloudy, with a high near 58. Calm wind becoming west between 15 and 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
It's like a whole other climate. About a 25-30 degree difference.
Unbelievable.
It's official, a NWS snow advisory until 7 tomorrow
I suspect this clipper will be a surprise, but which way is uncertain. We may end up with no snow at all, like Roanoke.
Sun angle makes a difference at this time of year if the day starts out sunny or if the temperature is near 32 degrees tomorrow morning rather than near 20 degrees. We've had so many mornings this winter and in years past when a predicted 18-25 degree low warmed up to 34 degrees or higher overnight. Why this happens around here I don't know. It almost NEVER happens up in western Wisconsin, but then again we almost NEVER have office shutdowns in western Wisconsin, even when 10-18 inches of snow is expected! Incidentally my mother told me that the 10-16 inches of snow expected late last week around Eau Claire ended up at only around seven inches. There were periods during which the snow slackened up or stopped altogether (the forecasters up there were expecting continuous snow for 24 to 36 hours!). Even up there the weather sometimes disappoints.
Bombo - so, if this starts pre-dawn and temps remain where forecast, then the sun angle will be negated?
My understanding is that even with the cloud cover, the higher angle of the sun allows more solar radiation to filter through and reduce snow amounts.
I was able to verify this with our last storm - my (shady) side of the street had about 3.5 inches of snow on the sidewalk, but the other (sunny) side had about an inch less.
Thanks for the explanation. NWS just changed the forecast at the top of the page to a high of 31 and 90% chance of snow from a high of 35 and 60% chance. (does happy dance)
the blacksburg af calls for 60 degree weather in their south and 3 inches of snow in the nw of the area
In addition to what John said a few posts above, do not expect major road accumulations. If this will be a daytime affair as forecasted, the high sun angle will probably prevent anything more than wet roads, especially considering temps will be around freezing and snowfall rates probably won't be as high as they were 2 Sundays ago. Plus... that was 2 weeks ago, and the Sun is considerably higher up than it was then.
I remember an event either last year or the year before that high-sun-angled us. CapWx forecasted a couple of inches; in the postmortem, Jason or Matt or Josh or whoever wrote it up lamented that high sun angle hadn't been taken into account adequately.
Looks like I have to move back to Blacksburg to escape the Arctic Circle here.
Curious Minds -- The sun can have an effect even through overcast skies, which is why you're supposed to wear sunscreen even on a cloudy day at the beach.
As John Andre implies, the sun would have a bigger effect if temperatures were near freezing. While we might approach 30 during the midday hours tomorrow, we'll be staring off the morning quite cold, with morning lows in the teens in some places. With that in mind, I think most snow that falls will stick.
The only surface -- though probably the most significant one -- that the late-March sun angle could help to limit accumulations on would be treated roads.
I'm a snow lover so I am glad we are getting one more storm, but I am also starting to get the itch to play some softball.
Thanks, Dan!
What time should we expect the snow to start in the dc area?
oh happy snow dancing here! *grins hopefully*
It really seems that this is more like a 2 snowflake event... the description for minor seems more appropriate than the one for nuisance.
Besides that, a snow advisory is just as strong as a winter weather advisory in my book. Also it seems that the nws is forecasting 2-4" while you guys a are saying that's optimistic.
I'm so snow advisory-less and lonely 
Am I really going to get THAT above freezing?
Does sleeping with the PJ's inside out work for adults too? LOL.
CapWx, Do you think LWX jumped the gun w/ 2-4? I think 1-2 is more reasonably, the models seem awfully dry. This may be an event where your better off from DC and on east. If your living near the shadows of the 'mtns' you may not see much.
Ivan:
Indeed, come on down. We'll be in the mid-50s tomorrow, with sun - no flakes to be found. Personally I'd rather have the snow of course.
This is the biggest oddity of this winter to me. Normally, we are both snowier and colder in Blacksburg than in DC, so much so that students at Tech are know to lament the return to Blacksburg and its "brutal cold." This year though, we've had warmer temps most of the winter, with some exceptions of course, and about half the snowfall of DC.
Its one thing for the southern mid-atlantic to get a low snow winter in general. What's odd is to have the "regional sub-climates" completely flip like they have this year. Very odd indeed.
It will be interesting to see if this is mostly a fluke as a result of a too far south then too far north storm track, or if this change will be more long term and DC will start to regularly "beat out" the higher elevations to the southwest.
Jay-- as of now: yes. Agree with your assessment.
Henry marguisity said that we could see 3 - 5 inches... Seems to me however that he is always overly optimistic.
margusity puts northern va in the "enhanced snow" band, making us primarily the bullseye for this storm..others are calling for the storm's "bullseye" to be a little farther north..based on this winter though, i think its safe to assume that a more southerly track may take place, like almost every other storm that's happened over the past 2 months
how big does the heaviest band seem to be. 50-100 miles?
yeah most likely, as this is a clipper system and isnt very widespread...any shift (north or south) with this system could alter snow amounts a whole lot (the difference between maybe a dusting and 4-5 inches)
What *is* a "clipper", anyway? Thanks!
Snowbaby -
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/
Alb...Alberta_clipper
One of the first posts of the day and still going strong!! Up since 4am....praying for one last blast from mom nature.
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