A poll is different from a prediction. People may support and hope that Edwards wins when the pollster calls them, but if they had to bet money on it, they'd obviously pass.

I trade momentum on intrade, but do tend to buy contracts I happen to believe have a good chance of paying out. In a long campaign like this one, I do take a lot of information on where the odds are into consideration. After New Hampshire, Hillary has existed over the 40 mark in the 'to win President' contracts, and Obama went from over 35 to under 20.

I'd buy the Obama contract as a momentum trader (which I have), and since we can't short, the Hillary one I don't go anywhere near.

It's a market...I don't see how it compares with a poll in any way. Think about comparing a poll of Giants and Patriots fans about who is going to win, then putting that alongside the 85 point contracts available now...I can guarantee that if an equal amount of Pats and Giants fans are polled, the percentage of people who pick the Giants will be a lot higher than 15%.

But again, if they were offered a chance to put money on it, most would pass.

Apples and oranges.
deadissue | Homepage | 01.26.08 - 3:26 pm | #