Practically, shouldn't the goal be to see if you can make money on Intrade using the Zogby results? Perhaps you should look to how Zogby results translate into Intrade results i.e. a 13% lead on Zogby usually means a 90% chance of winning on Intrade (no idea if this is true).

My theory is that if Zogby or any other poll gives some advantage on Intrade, it'll only be in the short run. The advantage of liquid markets is that they can "cheat" off others. If Zogby is an accurate indicator, market participants will incorporate that data (thus neutralizing that advantage) while the reverse will never happen. Zogby won't adjust its polling data due to Intrade. I'm likely recycling basic theory, but liquid markets will always beat any single predictor in the long run (although as Jed said, polling firms have different goals).
Jason | 01.26.08 - 12:09 am | #

Thanks for the kind words! I hope they prove useful in future arguments about prediction market accuracy.

Regards,
Jed
Jed Christiansen | Homepage | 01.26.08 - 8:48 am | #