Why would you give Zogby credit if anyone other than McCain or Romney win? I'd say that's a loss for both prediction systems.
Jason: I agree that a 5% Zogby share for Thompson is not very predictive. But this is not an absolute contest against perfection--it is a relative contest pitting a high profile prediction market against a high profile pollster.
From Midas Oracle this morning;
"Looks like Zogby won it then;
"Mitt Romney burst back into contention for the Republican presidential nomination on Tuesday with a comeback victory over John McCain in the Michigan primary.
The former governor of Massachusetts beat the Arizona senator by 39 per cent to 30 per cent, with Mike Huckabee, the former governor for Arkansas, in third with 16 per cent."
I look forward to reading the post result analysis.
In a way you were asking for this, due to your unscientific method of comparison. Another black eye for prediction markets."
Ato: What would make this contest more scientific?
Commenting by HaloScan
