Wow. Just yesterday, I was moving my iPhone sales estimate from 2.5m down to 1.5m based on the fairly slow sales seen by Piper Jaffray (1 per hour) during the Black Friday weekend in US Apple Stores, and the "slow" sales in the UK (reports taken with lots of grains of salt). Even if things went well, iPhone might just hit .5m units in Europe for the quarter. The cheaper unlock sales in France might boost that so I'd be looking at what happens in the next few days, but still 3m?...
OTOH, I do agree with you on the iPod blowout, and the iPod ASP will not fall given iPod touch sales.
I'm kind of ignoring the anecdotal reports these days, even from smart analysts like Jaffrey. It's the holiday season: anything could happen.
As for Europe: I think life's a bit slower paced over there, but I think they may end up with more iPhones per capita than the US; traditionally, they've been a better market for smartphones than the US. And they've already been smart enough to largely pick Symbian over Windows Mobile.
The iPhone is much like compound interest (with the carrier kick backs); it's earning potential balloons in the fullness of time. The iPhone has the added advantage that it'll be a half decade before other handset makers produce a reasonable knock-off. I expect to hold/accumulate over the next 1-3 years unless big "red flags" start sprouting up.
Hey, based on channel checks, ThinkEquity Partners said today they think Apple might sell more than the 3.2m iPhones that they forecast.
Another anecdotal point, but Carl, I must bow to your wisdom.
Commenting by HaloScan
