Great interpretation of the Zune "market". I'm now on my 5th iPod (By choice) and I'm holding out the true video iPod, not the Zune. It does look interesting, but not enough to be out the iPod.
Give it 3 years, it will grab 40% market share.
Just wait,when the population density of zunes is high enough, we'll see wireless auto-propagation of Zuney viruses and spyware.
"Apple will probably ship anywhere from 14 to 20 million iPods to add to the 60 million it has already sold"
Don't forget about the current quarter. 
Gartenberg at JupiterResearch.com keeps hinting that there's more to come before Xmas. I don't think he's talking about Core 2 Duo MBPs. Since I think he is NDAed with Apple about its products, he may be hinting that Apple will unveil the real video iPod on the iPod's 5th anniversary in Oct. Maybe that's why the $399 slot is not currently occupied. If Apple does that, Zune is really dead.
Of course, he could be hinting about the iPhone instead...
Actually, I'm also in agreement with Gartenberg about more shoes to drop from Apple before Chrismas. And your point about the $399 (and frankly the $299 and $499) price slot is a good one.
As an aside, has anyone noticed that an entry level iPod video now costs nearly half what it did when iPods were introduced? My 10 Gig iPod was $399; the 30 Gig iPod video is $249. Amazing.
Thanks for all the comments and I hope you got a chuckle out of this one,
Carl
I don't get it at all. Even among college students, I just can't see wireless peer-to-peer music sharing as a selling point. Among adults, forget it; it makes no sense. If people aren't using ANY KIND of wireless peer-to-peer networking except cell-phone calling and a wee bit of IM amongst teeny-boppers; what makes you think people with diverse music tastes will find this appealing?
Plus, if I am wrong, AAPL could just add it, sans viruses, spyware, and security holes.
3 years down the line with about 30% market share the file sharing feature will start to show benefits. MS has already said that its a long battle. Its just a first generation product. This battle will be decided in about 5 year time.
I am just happy there is competition in market. After all we don’t need another Microsoft like monopoly in digital music world.
Commenting by HaloScan
