The Forrrester math-illiterates surveyed 181 people. They then extrapolated to the very large number of owners of the 60 million iPods.
They are not even remotely close to what proper surveys should do to get statistically reasonable conclusions.
They could have surveyed me: I own 3 iPods, bought 0 itunes, and concluded that itunes sales have completely ceased.
It is amusing how gullible the press is, tho'.
Yeah, I read Josh's clarification in CNET too. They actually surveyed more than 2,700 people, but only 181 bought anything from the iTunes Store, so they went with that.
All that said, 181 people is better than a sample of 1 or 2, which is what a lot of people are using for data. But as you note, you still have to apply the smell test to the results, and I'm not sure that happened.
But when all is said and done, Josh and I do agree on some points. I think digital music is not doing well currently, largely because music companies have forgotten that they actually need to produce music people want to hear. And, yes, iTunes doesn't sell as much in the summer as it does in December or January. But the larger issue is how you frame those data points. And Josh himself has noted that it didn't go as well as it could have in his own blog at http://blogs.forrester.com/
devic...s_sales_ar.html .
Thanks again for your thoughtful contributions,
Carl
I know you said you enjoy his analysis and writing but what bothers me about Bernoff is his bad string of predictions related to Apple. I found these few by googling Bernoff and Apple.
Bernoff has stated:
1. on 10/16/2003 at NPR, that iTunes would not be dominant on Windows because it wouldn't be alone.
2. on 7/26/2004 at CNET when Real broke into FairPlay, that "Right now if you're a consumer, you have to pick sides," said Forrester Research analyst Josh Bernoff. "With every track you buy you're going further down the path of incompatibility... This is going to create some pressure on Microsoft and Apple to provide similar levels of interoperability."
3. on 7/26/2004 at the NY Times, "Mr. Bernoff said this technology might give a temporary advantage to RealNetworks's music store, which has a very small share of the market so far. But he thinks Microsoft will also find a way to sell songs to be downloaded on iPods. ... Mr. Bernoff said he expected Microsoft quickly to become the No. 2 download service behind Apple."
4. on 2/24/2005 at Forrester, he writes "Steve: We know conventional wisdom means nothing to you. But the road to mass consumer success goes through video. Hire TiVo as your driver."
5. on 2/4/2005 at Forrester, he writes a subtitle ""Napster To Go" Will Take A Bite Out Of Apple iTunes."
5. on 8/17/2004 at Forrester, he writes "RealNetworks will unveil its "Freedom of Choice" marketing push today, featuring $0.49 singles, $4.99 albums, and a message that Real has the only music store compatible with both iPods and Windows Media portable devices. The result: a major challenge to Apple, a boost for Windows Media, and a new imperative for music labels: Back Apple rivals to break down compatibility barriers."
6. on 11/8/2005 at Forrester, he writes, "As we predicted, TV distribution has been cracked wide open. For $0.99, you'll now be able to watch CBS hit shows on Comcast ON DEMAND and NBC Universal programs on DirecTV pay-per-view. The result: Digital cable and on-demand usage will surge. And the TV schedule will soon be as irrelevant as last night's news." (Searching at Forrester, I could not find a similar Bernoff article about iTunes' intro of TV shows.)
This goes on and on; not a single one of the above views has come true. He's not as objective as he makes it all sound by blaming the press and Apple for his latest mistake.
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