Do you believe the rumor (5million iPhones sold) is true?
It sounds too good to be true.
Yes, as much as I want to believe this is true, I don't just don't think it's possible, based on the numbers I've seen. I think more likely it's around 3 million. Anyway you cut it, the little stock I own in Apple will be happy by the news I think.
The 10 million by the end of 2008 is a foregone conclusion I think. Once Apple releases the iPhone in Japan, China, Australia, and Canada, there's really nothing to stop them from reaching that goal.
Wasn't Blackfriars itself predicting 3 million iPhones this quarter?
Last quarter about 3 million BlackBerrys or BlackBerries were sold. This quarter 3.9 million were sold.
I would give a more realistic guess of 1.3-1.5 million iPhones this quarter since there were I think about 1.1 million iPhones sold in 3rd quarter.
Don't forget competition from AT&T Tilt and Verizon Voyager in the touchscreen arena.
I too think that the 5M number for iPhones sold to date (by Macworld) seems a bit high, but is certainly not outside of the realm of possibility. Having sold 1.4M by the end of the last quarter, they would need to sell an additional 3.6M by January 15th to hit this mark. This would require about 1M to be sold in the UK, France and Germany (possible, but unlikely) and another 2.6M sold in the US (again, possible, but quite optimistic).
On the other hand, I was buying an iPhone as a Christmas present for my father the other day from the Apple Store in San Francisco, and in the ten minutes that I was there, they sold 4 iPhones from the table I was standing at with their remote credit card readers (I don't know how many were being sold at the main checkout area). And there are now four iPhones in my immediate family, so they are definitely selling!
I'm guessing the real number will be at least 4 million to date, which is still very impressive... dominating, in fact, for a single smartphone model (only the entire Blackberry family is outselling the iPhone in North America, not any one Blackberry model).
Not sure that basing an article on the musings of a Mac rumor site makes a great deal of sense or is in line with your usually more reasoned approach. ("Usually"!)
You may be "long on Apple" but in this case I think "short on sense." NOT in the numbers - though I don't think they are reasonable. I, too, think around 4 mil. - but in using rumor as credible source.
Waaaay too much of that going on in "analysis" already.
Just a note that Apple said 10 Million iPhones in 2008 not by the end of 2008. So, the counting starts with this quarter, Q1 2008.
According to Engadget it was around 10:57 am during the Macworld keynote. "Exactly what we're trying to do, 1% market share in 2008, 10 million units and we'll go from there."
http://www.engadget.com/2007/01/...e-jobs-keynote/
I think it's true.
@James,
Endgadget's transcript is wrong. Jobs' goal, announced during the keynote, was 10 million by the end of the iPhone's first year, 2008. If you don't believe me, listen to the keynote yourself. I believe Apple still has it up on their website.
Cheers.
5 M iPhones by MWSF is very plausible, with the Holidays and all. I would NOT be concerned about the Blackberry; I think there's about of consolidation going on amongst the unwilling-to-use-ATT hold-outs. They will capitulate. RIMM is toast.
Steve P.
The title of this post has a question mark and I don’t think Carl is in anyway implying that this 5 million rumored sales number is a given.
I have read some speculation on message boards that iPhones sold to Euro carriers for inventory might count as sold. If true, then this could help move Apple to the rumored $5 million number. Regardless, I think 9 to 5 Mac’s 5 million number might be a bit too optimistic.
At the end of fiscal 4th Qtr 2007 Apple had sold 1.39 million iPhones. Gene Munster has estimated that Apple will sell approximately 2 million iPhones in both Q1 and Q2 of fiscal 2008 ... this would track to 3.7 million iPhones sold by MacWorld Expo 2008.
If Apple does in fact achieve 5 million iPhones sold by MacWorld, then it's Katie bar the door! AAPL pps will smash through $200.
Regarding Apple's [Steve Jobs’ MacWorld ‘07] stated objective to sell 10 million iPhones by the end of 2008. That objective is a cumulated running total from June 29th, 2007 until December 31, 2008 (appx 18-months).
On Apple F1Q07 (Qtr End 12/30/06) Earnings Call, Tim Cook clarified that the 10 million iPhone sales goal is for "end of calendar year" 2008. Again this objective is over an 18-month timeline ending 12-31-08.
After reviewing the 2007 MacWorld Keynote ... I will retract my comment about cumulative sales. Steve Jobs clearly states the objective is $10 million iPhone sales in 2008 ... "in our first full year in the market ... in [calendar year] 2008"
http://thumbsnap.com/v/NJgSKAUx.jpg
It's late 
... scratch the dollar ($) sign and make that units.
This discussion is based on iPhone configuration sold on 29 June 07 (ver. 1.1.n); With AAPL averaging their sales on a 24 month basis; what happens if in 2008 AAPL introduces a "must have" feature/app.?
Maybe not a killer app. but what might the iPhone have that increases user demand? What about the SDK being released in Feb 2008? What if iPhones have Leopard installed vice Tiger?
2008 may well become a year of surprises.
Yes, the MWSF keynote wasn't clear, but recall that Apple is shooting for 1% of the cell market, which is about 10 million at the time of the keynote. So, either way, it's 10 million in a rolling year.
As for 5 million, I think the euro number of 1 million is high; however, shipped to a 3rd party, does count as a sale, though activations will create that sold vs activated mismatch that did so much confusion earlier this summer.
If iPhone sales follow iPod's Xmas quarter double, then 2.2 million iPhones are possible. Add the 1 million european sales brings the quarter total to 3.3 million, just a touch short of the 3.6 million needed. However, if you add in 2 additional weeks of sales, perhaps they can get to 5 million, but I have my doubts. It seems too early for Apple to make that call, so I think the rumor is fake.
As for 2008, in addition to the SDK that will bring lots of additional functionality, and perhaps make significant inroads into the enterprise space, there may also be a nano-like iPhone. Not necessarily smaller, but like iPods, one that hits a lower price of entry. Adding those sales should make 10 million in a single year, a slam dunk.
Commenting by HaloScan
