And the Zune has a growing new issue--surging Mac marketshare with no mac compatibility. Whatever the overall share gains, the surge seems to be centered right at ground zero for music--college students.
And just as MS bundled software to freeze out competitors, Apple can bundle hardware.
The halo effect becomes a virtuous circle.
If I'm involved with Zune that shot from U of Mo. should be more terrifying than the iPod touch.
Basically their whole hope for music sharing is that high school students will want to be different than college students. Riiiiiight......
And SanDisk will fight hard to hang onto #2 by killing them on price. (Everyone expect MS to be #2... I wouldn't be so sure.)
"With so many items in common, how can Microsoft claim that the Zune is so much better than an iPod?"
The difference is the software. Zune works better with Windows and Xbox 360 is what Microsoft is trying to do by using WiFi. I believe only Apple's Touch line has WiFi.
Also, notice that a firmware update will upgrade the original Zune 30GB, thereby building on existing user base. Windows and Xbox 360 users might consider buying a Zune over iPod.
Doomed? So you do not think Microsoft can leverage its Windows and Xbox 360 user base to buy Zune?
Beanie,
No, I don't. It was said by yet another steve: Macs are all over college campuses, and the Zune says to them, "we don't want your business." MSFT must think Mac users are not worth going after. Then again, if Office for Mac is any indication, Mac users are the red-headed step-child.
Okay, so if you upgrade the 1.2M original Zunes and add in potential Xbox360 buyers, let's say about 10%, which is what, 1M? I'm guessing on the 10%, but I thought I read that only 10% of Xbox360 buyers had the wifi option. And, beanie, you are saying the advantage is the wifi option, right? So, that's about 2.2M with the new software, not counting additional Windows buyers, whatever that may be. That still pales in comparison to the 20m to 30M iPods that will be sold in the holiday quarter.
Just look at Gates' comments about 6 or 7 years down the road. Honestly, the market will have been saturated well before MS expects to be the market leader. Even Bill's comments about how he thinks the Zune will be even better in a year, tells me that potential customers should wait! Why buy now, since the product is hardly perfect even in Bill's estimation.
I don't think the Zune / Verizon phone should worry Apple for the reasons Carl mentions. I would worry about the Amazon MP3 store though because it demonstrates a clear advantage. Everyone knows that MP3s have no DRM and can't be restricted. That's the kind of thing Microsoft and Verizon should be doing. Go after a clear advantage. Another clear advantage would be unrestricted WiFi music sharing though I doubt the record companies would ever go for this.
But then I'd give it under 6 months for a good solid 3rd party (read unauthorized) WiFi sharing app with a significant install base comes out for the iPhone / iTouch.
OK, noone has actually used a new Zune or LG Voyager, so you can not make a snap judgement and say they are doomed. It comes down to the User Experience. Wii is a technically inferior machine but it is outselling XBox360 and PS3.
I suspect the Zune will work better with Windows than the iPod, therefore Windows users will prefer Zune. Zune is probably Windows Mobile based, while iPod is OSX based.
Anyway, best selling iPods on Amazon are 4GB nano and 80GB classic, which is a sign of saturation, since people are buying the low-end. But it will be interesting to see how Zune does when they are released in November and go head-to-head.
There is a huge difference between the marketplaces that the Zune & the Voyager will be facing.
The Zune will be facing the iPod. The iPod is firmly, firmly, firmly entrenched as the MP3 player market leader. Think not only how many iPods are sold but also the vast variety of add on products that exist for the iPod family. There is also the iTunes store with its' huge selection of music + TV shows + podcasts + movies + audiobooks. Look at the iPod product lineup - many more choices from low end to high end. Also consider the Apple retail store experience - being able to see and use all of the iPods in the Apple store is very different than any other retail experience (that I have ever seen). iPods have great design and are very desirable. The vast majority of iPod owners recommend them to friends. For most people buying anything other than an iPod just doesn't make sense. I couldn't agree more with the mantra about IBM and their competition. A product will have to much, much better (or cheaper) to take iPod sales away.
Additionally, Microsoft is no better than even when it comes to their brand / installed base helping their sales. Most folks have no passion for Windows & Microsoft. Some folks despise Microsoft and some (I would imagine mostly gamers / XBOX 360 owners) really like them.
The Zune is not competing on price, Microsoft has a track record of mediocre marketing and is not releasing a player that has any game-changing features. Therefore, the Zune will sell a few million units but will not have a significant impact on the MP3 market.
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The Verizon phone has a much easier road to marketplace success. The iPhone has very respectable (if not great) sales but is in no way in a dominant market position. There are many people who will only buy phones from their current service provider. Will the Voyager take away iPhone sales - very doubtful. The cell phone handset market is WIDE open.
"I suspect the Zune will work better with Windows than the iPod, therefore Windows users will prefer Zune"
This is MSFT we're talking about; I wouldn't assume they can write decent Windows software. Simple example: compare MS Access to Filemaker. When Safari for Windows is out of beta, it will pretty much humiliate IE, also, since IE hasn't had a meaningful update this century.
I expect that MSFT's marketing plan for the Zune will be something like "Hey Michael (Dell). You bundle this POS Zune or no XP license. Maybe we also beat up your little sister".
I actually have experience with the Zune and iPod and Sansa e230 and Windows. The iPod works better on Windows than the Zune, but the Snasa can actually be loaded with music and deleted just like a USB drive. The Zune is very unimpressive, but we shall see the new ones. Still the Windows OS integration is won ny the iPod. All of my friends with iPods and iPhones use Windows, NOT a Mac.
Also, with all due respect to all, if state that you cannot make a snap judgement [speculation] without seeing a product, then you really should not do it yourself by saying "I suspect...", however, I agree with your statement beanie regarding user experience. I was worried that you were ill beanie, since I did not read any posts from you. Glad to here you are OK dude. [well, at least to type]
"To win they have to be better -- lots better."
No, they don't. They only need to be good enough. Windows 95 was not as good as the Mac OS back then but it was good enough for most people.
iPod competitors are still failing because, puzzlingly, no one has figured out that the iPod is a product with 4 components (hardware, software, online shop and synchronisation between the three).
What they've been doing is copy the superficial iPod, which is only 2 out of 4 (hardware and software). Once someone figures out how to one-click Amazon downloads onto their Zunes or Sansas, that's when Apple will seea real fight on their hands.
Alas for them, history has not been kind to innovators.
"Windows 95 was not as good as the Mac OS back then but it was good enough for most people."
It was good enough for MSFT-paid IT directors in Enterprise. And that's what mattered. The "Users" were ignored; if they opened their mouths in protest, they were punished. Harshly.
iPod competitors are still failing because, puzzlingly, no one has figured out that the iPod is a product with 4 components (hardware, software, online shop and synchronisation between the three)."
Not MP3-related, but this is what killed Palm, too. They only ever got the first two of these down; the syncing was "hit or miss".
"Alas for them, history has not been kind to innovators."
The historic record is mixed. AMZN services COULD pose a threat to the iPod franchise, but Apple could match prices, too. Or there could be "gotchas" with AMZN. The thing is, even if you BUY tunes from AMZN, you still need hardware to play them, and Apple's hardware just seems to move further away from the competition with each iteration. Look at the "Touch". Moreover the iPod's most important role in life isn't being an iPod-- it's getting people into Apple stores, so they can see what a 21st century computer looks like-- maybe for the first time.
I did a little research on LG Voyager.
LG Voyager, is the successor to LG enV, and is a combination of LG enV and LG Prada touchscreen phone. LG Voyager serial number is VX10000 while LG enV is VX9900.
So one can only expect that it would sell as well as enV. So how well does enV sell? On Amazon enV is rank #12 overall and #3 e-mail phone. #1 e-mail phone on Amazon is Blackberry Curve. #5 e-mail phone on Amazon is Blackberry Pearl.
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