There's NO REASON a consumer should pick a Blackberry over an iPhone. Even if you totally despise ATT, you can always buy an iPod Touch and pick up a free Sprint or Verizon phone for tasks that require actual phoning.
Businesses may stick with RIM for a few years, because businesses have very simple needs and very high levels of tech-phobia. That's how Windows has persisted so long in Enterprise.
Carl, you mentioned in an earlier post that RIM is largeley a US phenomenon-- that post with the phone OS graphs by region. That also bodes poorly for RIM.
How any so-called analyst could be bullish on RIM, in spite of last quarter's strong numbers, totally boggles the imagination. It's utter insanity.
Carl,
Tommo_UK points out that only 1.45 million of RIM's sales were to new subscribers. As such Apple, with only one carrier in one country sold about the same number of iPhones (at a much higher cost per phone in general as well) than RIM did new subscribers in 120 countries across 300 carriers.
http://www1.investorvillage.com/...msg&
mid=3156559
Not bad for Apple's first 3 months against the reigning incumbent who has had a decade or more to get to 10 million subscribers - RIM must be shaking in their boots.
-Mart
The PE ratio for RIM is scary high.
I find it hard to believe that the vast majority of people who compare the user interface of an iPhone and a Blackberry wouldn't prefer the iPhone.
I haven't owned a blackberry but I have helped several people set up / troubleshoot them. The UI is terrible. The combo of the horrible little trackball with little buttons on the front and sides combined with non-intuitive menus is a real bummer.
If we are talking about the consumer market, then the iPhone should continue to sell very well.
I think RIM will continue to do well because the market for phones with expanded capabilities (especially email) is going to increase greatly. There is plenty of room for multiple platforms to do well, especially since Apple chose a limited distribution model. There are millions of folks on Verizon, Sprint, etc. who won't switch providers regardless of how great the iPhone (or other phone) is.
I also think we're seeing classic "shake-out" activity. Weaker players, like MOT are dropping; relatively stronger players, Like RIM and NOK may see gains that may well be fleeting. It's a bit like betting on Atari in 1983; you MIGHT get out in time, but don't bet the mortgage.
So what does short-term RIMM stock price have to do with "smartphone" marketshare? Ridiculous comment. Company performance and stock price are two different things.
Carl wrote:
"RIM has overestimated its ability to connect with consumers"
BlackBerry "consumer" phones sell pretty well on Amazon. They currently hold spot #1, 3, 4, 5, 7 in the smartphone category. And ranked #3, 12, 13, 14 in all phones.
Carl wrote:
"RIM has spread itself too thin. RIM is offering 12 different models of phones today, and has more to come."
Nokia, the world-wide smartphone leader, has over 30 different models and has more to come also.
Carl wrote:
"Apple, on the other hand, reduced its iPhone models from 2 to 1 last month to make choosing its product even easier"
Putting a positive spin on production cutbacks. Wow, 4GB iPhone outdated in two months. iPods all come in two memory sizes. Apple should have released 16GB iPhone before cutting 4GB.
Dumbass Maczealots can spin anything to the favor of their Master.
"BlackBerry "consumer" phones sell pretty well on Amazon. They currently hold spot #1, 3, 4, 5, 7 in the smartphone category."
Kind of irrelevant; Amazon doesn't sell the iPhone, so you can't do a direct comparison.
As Carl points out RIM's ".... business distribution channel has demanded features such as encrypted transmission, no cameras in handsets, and remote wiping of handsets." Is their ANY technical reason that would prevent Apple and AT&T from fashioning an enterprise centric version of the iPhone to compete DIRECTLY with RIM?
In my view not only is Apple short circuiting RIM's effort to find growth among smart phone consumers, BUT RIM's core market, Enterprise, is newly vulnerable.
Intermediate term RIM will be hurt badly in the U,S, IMO when the AT&T contract expires and the (G5?) iPhone is unlocked. Five years seems like a long time, but you can only eat an elephant (the cell phone market) one bit at a time.
V.M.
Well Apple can claim two more switchers from Verizon Wireless. I bit the bullet by signing up with AT&T so I can have an iPhone. Two iPhones (my wife and me). Even willing to pay the early termination fee.
One thing I notice upfront; the whole buying experience is 180 from Verizon (and AT&T). Didn't need them or talk to them, to get my 2 iPhones setup and working. AND that's with porting both our phone numbers to AT&T.
Another thing, I've been to Apple stores before, but this was my first experience of buying at an Apple Store where there's NO sales counter or paper receipts.A little unnerving at first, had to find an Apple employee (who were all helping customers, showing them how Apple products work). When I found one, told him what I wanted, waited at the iPhone table location; while he went in the back storage to get my 2 iphones. Then with a wireless handheld, he got my information, credit card. Appoval etc.Don't even remember signing anything (I guess I did). I walked out of the store and realized I didn't get a paper receipt (no cash registers). But when I got home; the receipt copy was emailed to me.
Thanks for all the comments people. This is clearly a topic in which there are many points of view (and frankly, if there weren't RIMM wouldn't have a P/E of 95). But I think the back and forth in the comments demonstrates that the experiences on the two platforms are actually quite different -- and Apple has the upper hand.
Re 30 models of phone or 12 versus Apple's one: regular readers will know that a lot of our business is helping consumers and businesses understand the problem of the tyranny of too much choice. Apple gets this idea. The other vendors don't. Barry Schwartz's book, "The Paradox of Choice" argues that point in detail, but I stand by my argument that one model is better than 12 or 30. If nothing else, I can prove it is more profitable both for the vendor and the retailer.
And finally, there is absolutely nothing prohibiting Apple from introducing an iPhone model specifically for business that has many of the business features of the Blackberry. On the other hand, I'm not sure they care -- I believe businesses are going to find their mobility requirements changing because of the consumerization of mobile infrastructure. But that's just me.
Again, thanks for creating the discussion. Great work.
Carl
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