Looks like a Brocade dude just got convicted of back-dating and that sent Apple stock into a tumble. Forget about the fact that the DoJ already said they don't expect to charge current Apple management......
The weather analogy is a really nice way of explaining stock prices.
Moreover your little model just was hit by the same problem the big boys at the hedge funds with their black box computer programs have been having... it is a predictive model for normal markets. The markets right now are chaotic.
My own belief about trading AAPL around product announcements is that it can't be done. Why? Because too many try to do it, so the previous patterns are disrupted by the expectation that they'll repeat (moving the post-launch movement into the pre-launch timeframe).
But on a day when the Dow is down nearly 400 points, it's pretty safe to say that bigger forces are at work than some product line refreshes.
As an aside: I seem to be the only one who likes the new imac look. I honestly wish I had a use for a desktop machine...
Hi Carl,
Interesting analysis. You should do the same for the ipods to see if the pattern is any different (I reckon it should!) I was wondering what your interpretation is as to why Apple's stock decline following the introduction of new Mac products.
It may be a oversimplification but its as if the market did not 'care' as much about Apple's computers, focusing more on ipods, iphones and the other Apple gadgets.
Carl,
Really good writing. When considering historical behavior of a stock around related product launches, one has to consider what overall market does. It is relative performance of the stock with regard to the market that matters. The severe decline in AAPL is largely due to, as pointed out by steve, steep drop in indexes.
Did Apple's stock get pummeled by a perfect storm?
ps I like the new iMac's looks and specs and have placed a 2.8GHz model on order.
Commenting by HaloScan
