Some of your points make a very big assumption: That the iPhone is an open platform (sort of like a computer or PDA) and that Apple will release development tools for iPhone, and allow users to install third party applications.
So far it looks like this won't be the case. The iPhone will be more like the iPod (the iPod allows for some games but you have to go through Apple if you want in on it). It's a closed system and Apple closely monitors the whole experience.
I'd be willing to bet that part of the deal with Cingular involved making sure voIP telephony (Skype) is kept out of the equation altogether.
I think you have made another mistake about Skype
Watch for the next version of iChat in Leopard to have an iPhone interface, VOIP, visual voice mail and all the other functions of iPhone on a Mac.
It will be Mac only
#8 is either really huge or a burp, and both of them are predicated on the nature of the agreement with Cingular.
If iPhone + Skype isn't crippled by the cingular agreement, that sets off a *huge* chain reaction. The whole 18-25 demographic uses Skype for free-long distance anyway, and if they can now use it as a cell phone on wifi traffic -- it's a no-brainer. Cell provider margins would be history, wifi proliferation in cities would be a certainty, and you can bet that it'll be time to start laying more fiber. And honestly, it'll be about time. Paying per kilobyte in addition to a calling plan, which gets you a closed, crappy network with bad software, compared to public wifi + all the internet. It's not even a contest.
Of course, if VOIP is crippled by the agreement with cingular, i can't blame them, but it'll only be postponing the inevitable.
Your first point is very valid about unbundling. Since I partially get cable to deal with bad reception, it would even be more valid about getting cable altogether if there was a way to stream the free shows at each network's site, you know, like Heroes at NBC, or Grey's Anatomy at ABC.
And we still have to figure out how to watch live sports that reside on cable.
Some interesting points, but several
of them are undermined by the fact that
apple will not allow 3rd party developers on the phone.
I don't know what they are thinking, but
typical apple, they get way ahead and then shoot themselves to give everyone else time to pass them.
http://www.mobileburn.com/news.j...?Page=2&
Id=3036
Good comments all. The iChat thing is one I missed, going instead with the more ubiquitous Skype. And you guys are right: Cingular may have a clause in the contract that says, "No VOIP bypass software".
But I also think that Steve Jobs is thinking bigger than the US. And there is a lot of the world that doesn't give a hoot about Cingular, buys a ton of GSM handsets, and would love WiFi Skype or iChat. So one way or another, I think that the iPhone will eventually get a VOIP client, either through Apple or through third parties.
But the open platform bit I think is still an open question. Yes, Apple will want to control the experience to ensure it is a high quality one. And they may require blessing of apps to allow them on the phone. But I don't think they'll bypass the opportunity to provide downloadable applications, just as they weren't willing to give up the opportunity to provide music as well as music hardware. Hardware plus content equals profits.
Thanks again for all the comments. Great food for thought.
Carl
Apple likes to control the whole widget. But it looks as though Skype will make its way to the iPhone.
Commenting by HaloScan
