I think that you're "right-on" with the direction of your comments...although the possible inter-corporate entanglements possible between Apple, Miglia, Elgato, and "other" possibilites are still a mystery to us.
I would like to share my thoughts as "a potential AppleTV" user ...which point the same way as yours as a "marketer"...and see what others think about them.
Using the iPod as a model, it is clear to Apple [if not to various pundits] that only a small percentage, perhaps less than 15% of iPod content is derived from iTunes--although iTunes is a valuable means of keeping up to date and loading in new music releases. The main "use" of the iPod has been to bring over songs and albums from CDs into a convenient, organized, easily usable and portable vehicle, the iPOd, and using iTunes as an organizational/access device over and above using it as a day to day purchasing option.
With Apple TV, as a user, I feel that there is a hope [especialy with a MIglia like device or capability and whatever the QuickTime transfer option will be like] to finally take all hundreds of my old VHS tapes [which I have not bothered bringing over to DVD] and also of being able to record TIVO like whatever movies are on TV schedule [broadcast in HDTV and not] and finally put them all in a convenient, accessible, easy to use vehicle, the Apple TV.
There are already many hundreds of movies, TV shows, either on VHS, or broadcast on the movie channels that I would want to record and organize in Apple TV and its iTunes cataloging/storage system. It seems that Miglia offers something like this, and whatever Apple does, it must be 'on its mind" to recapituate its IPOD strategy here with AppleTV.
Of course, down the road, and perhaps not too far, is the expanding option of purchase of iTunes store material to add to my collection, but the overwhelming use would be to record movies, sports events and such, and convert my VHS [and ultimately DVDs as well--when that becomes easy enough] all to one Organizational vehicle.
This is incredibly appealing to me as a User. What do you folks think?
OK, here's why it won't happen, at least not soon. Steve Jobs is Disney's largest shareholder. Disney owns ABC and makes movies, some of them by Pixar. Disney/Pixar belong to the MPAA. That's why you see Elgato and Miglia as add ons. Apple tacitly allows for their interaction, maybe even helps them with engineering for the Mac, but at this point won't own the companies. This may change, but for now that's why it won't happen.
Not to mention the fact that putting a DVR in the Apple TV would put it in direct competition with Apple's own iTunes Store. THAT is the #1 reason why this will never happen.
Besides, I'd rather they just leave out the DVR capability anyway rather than to put in one that is crippled as badly as what you get in Media Center PCs.
Sorry, but you're missing the point with your "competition" argument. The MAIN USE OF THE IPOD, for example, is for copying over CD collections....not for downloading tunes from iTunes. The main use of iTUNES is not selling music [at least not yet], but for organization, storage, and accessible use of CDs and other recorded forms. That's what all the data tells us about iTunes purchases by iPOD users.
The same would likely be true for AppleTV for some years in the future. Simply storage and access to TV shows recorded TIVO style or transfer of already purchased videos into organized form.
The "COMPETITION" betweem supposed iTunesStore purchases has nothing to do with it.
A dvr in a Mac or any other Apple device will NEVER happen.. Apple tv coupled with the iTunes store is a new form of distribution and part of Apples bigger plan to be the premier provider for a content on demand future..
Apples business model is to SELL content through the iTunes store which in turn helps them to sell playback devices like iPods and Apple TV's. It would make no sense at all for Apple to include dvr functionality in one of its products which will record for free the same content they want you to buy.
People have misconceptions and grandiose visions about what Apple Tv is and/or should be, but one thing is for sure, it will not ever be a recording device and or a dvd player.. The future is content on demand, dvd's will be extinct as well as broadcast television. This may take years to happen, but Apple is getting us used to the idea of paying for the programming that we want.. It's what Microsoft, cable companies and most consumers don't yet understand, but they will soon enough.. Apple tv is just Steve Jobs thinking different....
All good thoughts. Clearly I am in the camp that says, "Apple TV is good for viewing more TV content than is available at the iTunes Store." And I don't see the whole Disney thing being an impediment. Yeah, they own ABC. But, for example, that doesn't prevent them from giving away ABC content on-line for free with commercials. I believe future TV will be a mix of commercial-supported and pay models -- and Apple TV *has to* support both, just as the iPod supported both ripped CDs and iTunes music. Hence my call on Miglia.
Again, thanks for great comments,
Carl
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