Given the estimated hundreds of millions dollars of free publicity Apple generated merely by announcing its iPhone, then yes, introducing another major product simultaneously would have been an atrocious waste of its media mindshare.
Also, the iPhone will serve as a successor to the iPod eventually and like the iPod it will keep driving nails into Microsoft's hopes with regard to the music market, DRM, and ultimately handheld products including cell phones. In consumer electronics, Microsoft might be dying, but it won't lie down for a decade yet.
I agree with you that Apple made the right decision, however, your financial analysis of Leopard vs. iPhone is not really accurate, because the Leopard delay will also slow hardware sales for those waiting to upgrade. This will obviously have an effect on revenue for the next 2 quarters.
I see the OSX delay as a negative symptom of an alarming trend towards pre-announcing products. Apple was always different because they wouldn't say, "Coming Soon..." but rather announce and release on the same day. As a customer, to hear about it and have it on the same day was exactly what I wanted. I don't believe Apple is giving customers what they want now. Because they pre-announced the Apple TV and now the iPhone, they have to make good on their promises, even if it means grabbing people from other products like Leopard to back-fill. I think all these millions of marketing dollars they enjoy on the iPhone announcement are precisely because they haven't pre-announced in the past. Of course people will sit up and take notice, but it is a game of diminishing returns. Eventually Apple becomes like every other company out there and nobody much cares anymore. I, as both a customer and investor, don't see this as a good trend.
In response to Anders, I completely agree with you on the preannouncing bit as a bad strategy, but with iPhone, they had no choice -- people were going to see the FCC submissions before June anyway. With Leopard, though, they did have a choice, and I think they would have been better served to keep it under wraps. And to their credit, they are keeping the major feature set under wraps; they just never should have announced a release date for it.
Thanks as always for all your thoughts,
Carl
Commenting by HaloScan
