Newshoggers Comments
Hey Cernig
I take your point that North Korea, Pakistan and India are far more egregious nuclear offenders and that Iran is being singled out for bellicose treatment. Iran’s energy consumption needs do indeed justify their desire for nuclear power generation. As you well know I am inclined to the dovish side on Iran and firmly believe that US military intervention in Iran would be a horrific mistake.
That being said, I am not so optimistic as you about the nuclear weapons intentions of Iran. It has good strategic reasons to seek out nuclear weapons for deterrence against regional Sunni Islamic forces, and Zionist forces as well as American military incursion. Not to mention the prestige factor of joining the nuclear weapons club. While I personally lack incontrovertible evidence of an Iranian nuclear weapons program, Iranian denials don’t constitute evidence of the absence of such a program. I will be very surprised indeed if the Iranians don’t develop a bomb in my lifetime.
While admittedly there are disturbing similarities between Bush and Ahmeddinezhad’s apocalyptic religiosity, the following assertion…
It must also be understood that President Ahmadinezhad of Iran is no more a "tyrant" or a "despot" than George Bush, Tony Blair or Jaques Chirac and indeed has more of a political mandate than any of these leaders. He was elected President by a clear majority (61.69%) of those who voted in elections which were as fair as any held in the USA and can serve only for a maximum of two terms under the Iranian constitution. He does hold the backing of the religious right and the military hawks of his nation but that isn't all that unusual for a religious and conservative leader of a democratic nation…
Well Cernig, that’s just disingenuous. Jerry Falwell and Pat Robertson did not have veto power over who could run for office in this country. If they could have banned the candidacies of John Kerry and Ralph Nader, and arranged to offer American’s a choice between George W and Cardinal O’Connor, I’m sure GW could have achieved a 61.69% Ahmeddinezhad sized mandate.
The American foreign policy establishment should be looking forward to how it is ultimately going to contend with the reality of a nuclear-armed Iran. It should be focusing on détente with Iran and assuaging Iran’s legitimate security fears. It should be assisting Iran with development of solar and wind energy as well as more benign non-breeder reactor technology. America should concern itself less with Iran’s bellicose rhetoric and more with bread and butter issues on the ground for the people of Iran. It should be supporting groups within Iran who would prefer a Republic of Moslems to what is euphemistically called an Islamic Republic.
At this moment sanctions and sword rattling are the exact opposite of what we should be doing in Iran and these policies are going to inevitably prove catastrophically counterproductive.
The religious communities
cont.
The religious communities of both America and Iran who seem so enthusiastically apocalyptic would do good to remember that Jesus did not say “blessed are those who accelerate the approach of Armageddon,” rather He said, “blessed are the peace makers. For they will be called sons of God.”
Ciao
L
Hi Lib,
Sorry, but I don't think I was being disingenious at all. If you follow the wikipedia link I imbedded to their post of the 2005 Iranian Presidential elections you will find that the Guardian Council banned just as many extreme conservatives, if not more so, than moderates. I'm also from a nation that is consistently to the left of even mainstream Democrat America. I don't see any more gap between Bush and Kerry (a hawk except when he thinks being a dove is more popular) than between Ahmadinezhad and Rafsanjani.
Your other points are well made and although we differ on details, it's not by much. I agree that there is some chance that Iran is seeking The Bomb but I disagree on exactly what that chance is. Let's face it, if Iran really wanted nukes it could have bought them from Pakistan already - as the Saudis admitted plans to do themselves. The Saudis only didn't because of international pressure but anything S.A. could do so could Iran. It would then have already announced it possessed them. The fact it hasn't and no one has suggested it has nukes as yet , along with all the other evidence, tells the tale at least for me.
Regards, C
As you probably already guesses, I disagree with a lot of your post. 
I don't have time to reply to all of it, but to touch upon one part, at least:
It must also be understood that President Ahmadinezhad of Iran is no more a "tyrant" or a "despot" than George Bush, Tony Blair or Jaques Chirac and indeed has more of a political mandate than any of these leaders. He was elected President by a clear majority (61.69%) of those who voted in elections which were as fair as any held in the USA and can serve only for a maximum of two terms under the Iranian constitution.
I think it's unfair to make this type of comparison between the mandate of Ahmadinezhad and the leaders of democratic (or, in our case, supposedly democratic) countries. It's kind of like calling the Egyptian elections fair. In Iran's last bout of elections, hundreds of "reform" candidates were barred from running for office, thus giving much of the Iranian population no choice in who they want to represent them in the government. Those elections which Ahmadinezhad won were a farce, and as far as I'm concerned, the man has no mandate to speak for the majority of Iranians.
Hey C
"Disingenuous” was probably the wrong word. I take your point that there's not a dime’s worth of difference between American political parties. De facto our electoral system is rigged by the two major patties to systematically exclude dissident voices and to produce false impressions of mandates for American politicians. I maintain that what passes for an election in Iran leaves much to be desired. But I also take your point that what passes for one here is not what its cracked up to be either.
Regards
L
Hello Liertas, Hello Cernig,
This is what I feel about the last presidential election in Iran as an Iranian who drove to Ottawa for 6 hours to vote against Ahmadinejad:
-The critics of the current conservative government of Iran call themselves reformists (to keep a distance from the outside-based oppositions who seek a regime change)
-Although most of the reformists were barred from running in the election, one was allowed to run. He had one of the best (but not the best) credentials compared to all other reformist.
-Most of the intellectuals didn’t vote for Ahmadinejad. He was elected by the low-income majority in Iran. His pledge to distribute the oil-money, his populistic views, his scruffy looks, and his graduate degree made him “the man of people”. (an ordinary educated young individual who is religious, but not a clergyman).
To summarize: despite few reported corruptions, he is elected by the majority. Does he represent the political views of all Iranians? NO (because he was elected for economic reasons)
To give an example, I should say that most of Iranians think that relations with US should be reestablished. (the person who conducted this study is now in jail for doing so).
Hello Libertas and Cernig,
Sorry that I misspelled Libertas in my last comment.
About Iran’s nuclear intensions I partially agree with both of you:
- If Iran really wanted nukes, she could have bought it from Pakistan, or she could have directed its program (especially during the 18 years of concealment) towards building nukes, not fuels.
- I think the strategic goal for Iran to have a nuke (which is deterrence) is also achieved by having the capability of building a nuke.
- Iran may want to build a nuke in future, but not now. It doesn’t yet have the means to deliver it. (another question that comes in mind is “where to?”)
- Being surrounded by Israel, Russia, and US who are armed with nukes up to their teeth, Iran also has strategic reasons NOT to have a nuke. Developing 1 or 2 or 10 nukes is negligible compared to what surrounds them. (don’t you think?)
Hi,
I would like to recommend this PDF document for those who want to see numbers on Iran's energy needs.
Hi Amir and thanks for joining this discussion. You've made some great points and I've checked out your blog which is doing a great job of following developments. I heartily recommend it.
Regards, C
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