Newshoggers Comments
Do you really think that Moqtada al-Sadr is likely to be the winner in Iraq? The man is a half-wit. I think he's really only capable of making trouble.
I think that Sadr or one of his direct allies have a very high probability of coming out on top for they have a demonstrated history of success in a tightly constrained environment. They have maintained their anti-American credibility and anti-government ineffectiveness credibility far more effectively than either SIIC or DAWA while also seizing control of a good chunk of Baghdad and denying anyone else control of Basra.
Combine that with some outreach to the Ba'athist affiliated Sunni groups, and a pronounced anti-Iranian streak (at least compared to SIIC and DAWA), he or his movement is the least threatening to the Sunni Arab nation states neighboring Iraq.
I can see this as stacking the deck in his favor.
Commenting by HaloScan
