Newshoggers Comments
"But say it with me, wingnuts - Iran has no nuclear weapons program."
Might as well howl at the moon. They'll just say the Hippies at the CIA are all Hellary supports bent of preventing a fun war with Iran.
The NIE says that the only factor which can stop Iran making a bomb is a political decision from Iran's leaders - not sanctions, nor airstrikes.
Well this is an outright lie. Did you bother to read the summary of findings? From the report:
Our assessment that Iran halted the program in 2003 primarily in response to
international pressure indicates Tehran’s decisions are guided by a cost-benefit
approach rather than a rush to a weapon irrespective of the political, economic, and
military costs. This, in turn, suggests that some combination of threats of intensified
international scrutiny and pressures, along with opportunities for Iran to achieve its
security, prestige, and goals for regional influence in other ways, might—if perceived
by Iran’s leaders as credible—prompt Tehran to extend the current halt to its nuclear
weapons program. It is difficult to specify what such a combination might be.
And why 2003? What may have happened right next door that would've prompted Iran to stop what they were up to?
This report tells us two things, with varying confidence: Iran's nuclear intentions were steadfast just four years ago, but were arguably halted by international pressure, i.e. their neighbor to the west getting invaded for supposedly having WMDs.
Secondly, with varying opinions, Iran has put themselves in a position where they could have nuclear weapons within ten years. And, because the decision was apparently POLITICAL (no doubt pushed by the Rafsanjani survivalist factions), it could just as easily be reconsidered as a cost-effective political move. You in fact distorted the above quote to make your point, but here's what they said:
In our judgment,
only an Iranian political decision to abandon a nuclear weapons objective would
plausibly keep Iran from eventually producing nuclear weapons—and such a decision
is inherently reversible.
That quote wasn't a condemnation of sanctions, far from it. The point is that this is a regime that has historically done the "right" thing for political or strategic expedience. This was the point behind the arms deals, this was the point behind Khomeini's moderating policies in the latter half of the 80's, and it's the reason they stayed so staunchly neutral during the first Gulf War.
Kevin,
Don't be deliberately dense. If I'd actually quoted the NIE as saying that, it would be a lie. What I did was say that this is how the NIE should be understood by anyone with a modicum of logic.
Sanctions and threats of airstrikes are causally antecedent to Iran's halting it's program. Do you underrstand the direction of the arrow of time? It's obvious Hadley doesn't and that this sop to the administration was one of the concerns that delayed the NIE for so long.
But, for those who are hard of reading comprehension, I'll edit the sentence to make my point clearer. fair enough?
As to your other argument - which appears to be that Bush invaded Iraq to stop Iran getting WMD's - don't be ridiculous. The Iranian program was outed on Aug 14th 2002, IAEA inspections began in Feb 2003, and the weapons element stopped at that time. No further causation required.
Regards, C
The IAEA still doesn't know what the hell Iran is up to. This NIE report is far more asertive than anything that dog and pony show has produced.
Weigh the two events on a scale next to each other--you have to be kidding me, if you think the fear of the dreaded IAEA is what prompted the regime to hit the brakes in '03. They are a toothless agency, one that still claims they're not getting all of the access they needed. If you know anything about the Shia tradition of Taqiyya, you'd know that the Republic has seen little incentive to do anything short of giving the IAEA the runaround.
Oh, and your timeline is wrong--Iran didn't even sign the Additional Protocol until the very end of '03. They defied ElBaradei repeatedly, and btw, he was the one who declared THAT YEAR that there was no evidence of a nuclear weapons program! So either he's a buffoon, since they supposedly halted activity just that year, or they had internally decided already to capitulate due to the Iraq invasion.
This isn't the first time Iran has acted in order to avoid the ire of the Americans and the West. Rafsanjani was quick to distance Tehran from the Lebanese kidnappings in the 80's, and he tried his best to mitigate Khomeini's fatwah on Rushdie.
No, I'm not arguing that Iraq was invaded to compel Iran. I'm arguing that they were invaded (contrary to what we were led to believe) in order to compel all enemy regimes. This was the argument made with Libya, most recently N. Korea, and no you'll no doubt se it now in the case of Iran.
I'm glad you're going to change the sentence, it was misleading.
Kevin,
The IAEA's last report was less definite because it has a policy of declaring no nation's program peaceful unless it has a full Additional Protocol in place. There are a couple of dozen nations that fit said bill but are widely acknowledged as not having weapons programs. Iran has already (repeatedly) offered to put such an arrangement in place once its rights under the NPT are recognised.
That "dog and pony show" has a record of 2 for 0 now (Iraq and Iran). The only nations to develop nukes since the IAEA's inception have done so outwith the NPT. Israel, India, Pakistan and North Korea (the last one left the "toothless" NPT to do so).
A couple of months ago, when I said what the NIE just has, you suggested I was in the pay of Fars News. You're just pouting because you were so wrong about Iran's nukes and the IAEA.
Regards, C
"The IAEA still doesn't know what the hell Iran is up to. This NIE report is far more asertive than anything that dog and pony show has produced."
Kevin,
I'm sure with wingnut fine print reading glasses you will see the words "Bomb Iran" on every page. I envision Darth Cheney on Meet the Press saying just that in so many words. So relax, you might still get your fun war with Iran.
Iran is still among the axis of evil, along with Syria, Saudi Arabia, the Palestinian territories, and Sudan.
Why, Jose?
Kevin,
Iran didn't even sign the Additional Protocol until the very end of '03.
While the Protocal allowed snap inspections, IAEA inspections on an agreed schedule were already underway by the time of the US invasion of Iraq. Sorry, no cigar. Try again.
Regards, C
Cernig, I've been kicking around a theory about this, though I haven't posted on it yet (and if I do, it will be at Daily Kos I think rather than unbossed).
Briefly, my theory is that the NIE was released now because it's an old version, updated only through summer 2007, which Cheney and Bush have been sitting on. Once the IAEA came out with the report that, as you've rightly noted several times, demonstrated that Iran really is not in any position to enrich for weapons. So Cheney decided to release an out of date report in order to lock in the hardest possible language, rather than send the NIE back to be updated and get a version that completely undercuts Cheney's position.
There's language in the report that looks half a year out of date (see for ex. section F, last clause).
That's my theory, and I'm pondering some more before I post.
I've seen others today hint at the same thing, Smintheus.
Regards, C
I'd be interested to know who those are, Cernig, if you can remember.
Btw, did you hear about the big doings at dkos?
Hi Smintheus - I don't really read the Big Orange Satan 
What's been happening?
Regards, C
Hey, Smintheus, I just heard - they finally recognised your talent and made you a front pager! Congrats! I'll have to start reading it now
Regards, C
Thanks Cernig, I hope you will. I suspect I'm going to have plenty of occasion to cite your excellent work.
This report is bogus. It's only going to give Iran the slack they need to continue their nuclear weapons program unhindered. Israel is in an even more dangerous position now that it no longer has the backing of the United States. Israel has been sending the Americans contrary intelligence for some time now, but they juts seem to ignore it. Check this site out, pretty enlightening:
http://jcpa.org/JCPA/Templates/
S...Weapons_Program
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