Mike Lowell is my favorite player, and I am genuinely curious as to why his name is constantly part of trade rumors. Didn't we sign him for a very reasonable price as part of the Beckett deal? He is hitting incredibly well, and the errors this year appear to be bad luck/atypical. He seems to be a go to guy for the media whenever they need a quote, plus always appears to comment meaningfully and graciously (and is bilingual!). Is the assumption that he would be too expensive to resign? What am I missing?
Chad, I picked up on the Police talk as well. You nailed it. I linked you over at www.38cliches.com.
lc
"... the dropoff from Tek to Dougie Chicken Parm is like going from Jessica Biel to Jessica Tandy."
Ouch! That's quite the analogy, especially considering Jessica Tandy is dead.
Wagon...great column as usual...one quick question, though: where would A-Rod play if the Sox did get both him and Teixeira? Would that be Theo, Lucky and the crew's way of throwing money at the Lugo problem? And do we sell our soul by having to cheer for him? Personally, I think that it's different from the Moss situation, simply because Moss never played for the Colts (or Jets), although Moss comes off (at times) as more of a malcontent (as well as someone who wants the ball in his hands), while A-Rod just seems to care more about his image that his role in winning championships.
1. Everyone likes Lowell, but he has a habit of dropping off in the second half, he's a free agent after the season, and the Sox have shopped him in the past. I wouldn't be shocked if they sold high on him. (And you're right about his defense - most of his errors have been complete flukes.)
2. Jessica Tandy is dead? See, that's what happens when you do your fact-checking at 4:15 a.m. Morgan Freeman must be devastated. Dead or alive, though, I stand by the analogy. (And FYI, I take Biel over those other hot Jessicas, Alba and Rabbit, every time. A young Jessica Lange would be worth debating, though.)
3. Princeton Boy: I don't think they'd pick up both Teixeira and A-Rod, unless they moved Youkilis to left and dealt Manny, or something unlikely such as that. I can't imagine they could (or would) unload Lugo after one season, though it would be fun to see if A-Rod can still play short. The Teixeira stuff is pretty much 99 percent conjecture on my part - I think there's a much better chance of them pursuing Slappy. It would be interesting if they did get them both, however, since they apparently didn't get along in Texas. Teixeira, Michael Young, and Hank Blalock thought A-Rod was condescending towards them and they were hardly sad to see him go.
Jeter's ESPY isn't even the most ridiculous. Peyton Manning won for "Best Championship Performance" for his pedestrian Super Bowl (247 yds., 6.5 YPA, 1 TD, 1 INT) Hopefully Dominic Rhodes didn't have any incentives for winning SB MVP.
I'm not mentally prepared for another winter of "Will they get A-Rod or won't they?" complete with descriptions of A-Rod's wardrobe and what was for dinner on JWH's yacht. Ugh.
I agree about trading Lester in a heartbeat for Tex. I know it's politically incorrect to say this, but doesn't Lester remind you of the second coming of another once highly touted lefty prospect with control issues and only intermittant big league success - Casey Fossum?
I certainly wouldn't rule out a Lester/Teixeira trade, but I'm not hot for it either. In spite of yesterday's irritating loss, I'm not convinced that the Sox need more offense; I'm much more interested in cementing the rotation for the rest of this year and the future.
Given the cost and iffyness of free-agent pitching, the Sox need a steady supply from the farm system. If management still sees Lester as a future contributor, I say hold on to him. If they see signs of creeping Fossumosity, then I'm okay with trading him.
As for A-Rod, I'm very leery. Not because of the lip gloss, the arrogance, or the out-of-town "friends"... but because (a) he'll be so damn expensive that the Sox would have precious little payroll flexibility, and (b) he'd be another guy in his 30s with a long-term deal. The more 30-somethings you have, the greater the chance that your team will suddenly turn into Soylent Green (see: 2007 Yankees).
I hope the Sox flirt with Scott Boras and drive up the price, but I also hope they don't "win" the A-Rod Derby.
I just simply don't see A-Rod staying in NY regardless of whether the Red Sox drive up the price or not. I think you have it right with Anaheim (I refuse to succumb to the LA thing) but I also see him as a fit on Chicago's North Side with good ol Lou. I think he'd take a cut to go anywhere besides NY, but he'll have to clear it with Boras. His internal monologue must be absolutely brutal right now.
I really like the idea of going after Teixeira and if they have to give up Lester for him, so be it. I think this team's offence is its weakness and I don't think anyone can assume it's going to turn things around. It's not just a numbers thing. There's a certain spark that seems to be missing, one that could be provided by adding the right guy to the mix. With what's already invested in this team and its championship potential, I won't be surprised if we do see a big move.
As for A-Rod in 2008, there was a time I was dead set against ever seeing this guy in a Red Sox uniform. As of right now, moments after he just smoked another home run against Toronto, I'm thinking it might not be so bad. He is after all on pace for about 55 homers and 155 RBI. And not to be overlooked in all the tabulations is that a certain beloved, enigmatic outfielder who's been our main RBI man over the past 6.5 years may also be coming off the books at the end of 2008 if not sooner.
And what I don't want is to be tied to another expensive superstar in his 30s for another 6.5 years. Not to demean A-Rod; he's the best player in the game. But he turns 32 this month, and a new contract would take him close to 40. Barry Bonds notwithstanding (and we all know how Barry accomplished his late-career burst), A-Rod is highly unlikely to remain the best player in the game for longer than 2-3 more years. And at any time, he could be derailed by injury like Ken Griffey Jr. That's the problem with putting so much money into one player: if anything goes wrong, you're stuck.
Chad,
You've lost your mind over this Teixiera thing. Pitching, pitching, pitching. The Sox have the best record in the league because of their pitching. Lester is a southpaw and throws gas. He has had a modicum of success at the ML level at a young age. Teams are hording pitching now because everyone realizes the value...except you. You want to take a flyer on a rent-a-player who is represented by Scott Boras.
Terrible.
johnw, your point about A-Rod's age and contract length is certainly a valid one. I'm probably just feeling a little desperate looking at the current Sox offence and what we're going to do about replacing Manny. Good cleanup hitters don't grow on trees.
Speaking of getting stuck with players and Scott Boras clients, how the hell did he manage to get the Sox to take Drew for 5 years? Incredible. This guy is living proof that on-base percentage is overrated. Drew has not homered against an American League team since April 22 and of his 33 RBI, 7 were in one game. He is a certified rally-killing albatross. How Theo can rectify this disaster is beyond me.
As I made clear, I'd be willing to gamble that Teixeira wouldn't be a rent-a-player; he sounds like he's begging to get to Boston or New York, and once he gets here (or there), I bet he stays. I'm also seeing signs from Lowell and Youks that they are not going to be as reliable in the second half as they were in the first. They clearly need another bat, and preferably a big one. I think there have to be serious concerns about whether Lester will ever live up to his top prospect billing. Two years ago, he was rated higher than Papelbon. Now he's behind Buchholz, and Masterson is gaining on him. (Bowden, not so much). I sincerely hope he makes it in Boston, but Theo is not one for sentiment, and I would not be shocked if they sold high on him, especially if it brought a 27-year-old, switch-hitting, Gold Glove-winning first baseman with 114 homers the previous three seasons. Will it happen? Probably not, because it would involve some other moving parts (Lowell, for one) to make it work. But I'm pretty tired of watching this team get shut down by the likes of Leo Nunez, and you're damn right I think it SHOULD happen.
Wow, this is my first ever post about this team. Been a real fan for 40 years. I've seen enough now to know the truth-- The Red Sox, as they are right now, are not going to make the play-offs. It seems absurd to the average fan, but four double plays, two guys thrown out of the bases, 17 runners on base and three runs, five guys lefts on by two particular hitters.... I know the truth; this team is NOT that good. Since June 1 they're hitting .260 and leaving men on all night. They lack power, are playing a guy who hits .141 on the road, and still not a smart hitting team. This is going to be more painful than 1978 in some ways because the Yankees are NOT on the same level as 1978.
This is not some slump, this is a team not playing well. Trades -- not sure if Tex is really what you think. His stats are inflated a bit by his stadium. He'll be hitting left-handed in Fenway a lot, but right now the Sox must get a number five hitter.
Lowell, great guy but he's hitting .240 on the road. H ewon't get the Sox into the play-offs.
Some of you may laugh but look at the Yankees remaining schedule. This is NOT an eight-game lead, this thing is already tied in many ways. The Yankees actually have the easiest schedule left one can imagine. I'm going to hate these last 70 games.
Chad,
Boras clients always go to free agency.
Why not give both Lester and Teixiera another year and a half. Lester either makes it or doesn't but you keep him if he does.
Teixiera hits free agency and becomes available to Boston for nothing but money.
Uh, Chad?
You belittle the Gold Glove award in your blog column and then turn around in the comments section and use it as a reason for trading for Teixeira, "a 27-year-old, switch-hitting, Gold Glove-winning first baseman".
What's it gonna be Chad? Can't have it both ways.
Soog - Because I think with one more bat, this Sox team has an excellent chance to win the World Series this year. And I worry that a year and half from now, Lester's value will not approach what it is at the moment. I hope I'm wrong about that, but that's what I feel at the moment. And like I said twice now, knowing what I know about Teixeira, I think he'd fall for Boston, and as we saw with Varitek, when a Boras client tests free agency, it doesn't mean he's leaving.
Jeff - Gold Gloves are a joke, but there's no denying that Teixeira is an outstanding defensive first baseman. Unlike Jeter, he's deserving of the honor. But we can play semantics games if you like.
What do we make of Tex originally being drafted by the Sox out of high school, then opting not to sign? Is there anything attached to that one way or the other?
I suspect he might see this as a way to have the best of both worlds: got the big bucks by signing with Texas, put in his time with a less-than-awesome team, and then gets to play for Boston at a good time in the franchise's history.
Thoughts?
Except for a couple of ushers, there probably isn't a single person working for the Sox now who was involved in the failed negotiations when he was originally drafted. Non-issue.
Yeah, it was a pissing match between Teixeira's dad, Duquette, and the Sox scouting director at the time (Wayne Britton, I think). And it was over a relatively small amount of money. But Teixeira has said he loves the atmosphere at Fenway (and Yankee Stadium), and I'm 99 percent sure he's going to be playing in the AL East within the next two years. Might as well be here.
I'd be interested in trading for Teixeira as well, but Texas is probably asking a king's ransom at the moment. Would Lester be enough/too much? What about a combo of Gabbard and Pauley, for instance? I guess I just haven't given up on Lester yet. It would be a tough pill to swallow, plus you'd have to find someone to take Lowell and the $4.5m left on his contract for a 2 1/2 month rental. Possible, yes. Probable? ...
As for the gold glove, I've lost all interest and respect for it. Period.
I'd give up Lester in a second. Lester's chances of being a successful major league pitcher are, by definition, something less that 100%. (And he's certainly unlikely to help them this year). Texiera is already one of MLB's top hitters, and is in the prime of his career. And, perhaps most importantly, addresses a current need (although with a gamble that they'll be able to re-sign / extend his contract. For a team with the financial resources of the RedSox, the highest and best use of most prospects is as trade bait for established quality players.
I may be in the minority here, but I firmly believe that the Sox' #1 problem right now is the starting rotation. Early in the season, we had one of the best rotations around, and we built a lead in spite of significant problems in the lineup and bullpen. Now, the rotation is perilously thin and unreliable beyond the top two.
Let's look at it through the lens of my completely unscientific fake-Sabermetric stat, PCF -- Probables Confidence Factor. It's the Chertoffian "gut feeling" you get when you check out the pitching probables for tonight's game. In the first two months, here are your PCF's:
Beckett 95%, Dice-K 80%, Wake 80%, Schill 75%, Tavarez 50%.
Now? Beckett 95%, Dice-K 85%, Gabbard 50%, Wake 40%, Tavarez 20%.
You may quibble with the figures, but they're reasonably close. I don't know about you, but I don't want to go into the playoffs with Gabbard as my #3 starter. It's reasonable to think that Schilling will come back and be adequate at least, and that Wakefield will emerge from his midseason funk. Beyond that, given the dearth of pitching on the trade market, I'm really hoping that Lester, Buchholz, or somebody will emerge, and (at the very least) solidify the back end of the rotation or add depth to the pen.
As for the uncertainty around pitching prospects, I concur. That's why I'm extremely reluctant to trade any of the system's top arms. The more prospects we have, the better our chances. And, Casey Fossum notwithstanding, the Sox have a very good track record of turning prospects into major-league contributors -- whether they stay here (MDC, Pedroia, Youkilis) or go elsewhere (Cla Meredith, Hanley Ramirez, Anibal and Freddy Sanchez).
I say the Sox' lineup is plenty strong for the present, and it's not worth the risk of mortgaging our future to upgrade the offense.
//(though if we can root for Randy Moss, accepting A-Rod as one of our own probably won't break the Hypocrisy Meter)//
That is so, incredibly, not the same thing. I haven't seen Randy Moss slap the ball out of Bronson's glove, take out Pedroia, and gloat about the pride of being in pinstripes everyday. Also, Randy hasn't been stupid enough to wine to the media about not having sleep overs at Cris Carter's house 5 nights a week anymore.
Also, Scott Pioli, Bill Belichick and Tom Brady have said Randy will be fine. I trust them. I'm waiting for Theo, Tito and Papi to rave about how well A-Rod will fit in a Red Sox uniform.
(Even typing that phrase, 'A-Rod in a Red Sox uniform' makes me sick.
JohnW: if you EVER had 80% confidence in Wakefield this season, you've been looking at the world through rose-colored glasses. The very nature of the knuckleball makes it a 50% proposition. Then throw in the question of whether Francona would yank him before it was too late...
I think your metric is a little circular in nature. Unfortunately, starting pitchers can't create runs, and that seems to be the problem recently. Contrary to popular belief, the sky is not falling. It may be teetering, but it's not falling. The bats will come around, and the pitching is still pretty good.
dave b: Once or twice a year, Wakefield gets on a roll. He's virtually unhittable for several outings in a row. He was on such a roll the first couple months of the season; his ERA was in the low threes, and his opponents' batting average was under .230.
Trouble is, those Cy Young stretches don't last forever. In the first two months, it was reasonable to have 80% confidence in Wake; now, my 40% is probably too high.
It's all a quibble anyway. Those figures were off the top of my head, and only meant to outline the scope of the problem with the Sox' rotation.
John W-
Wakefield looked okay today, but even with the offense looking good lately, the question is about confidence in the pitcher: do I ever feel 80% confident that HE is going to give a quality start? No--as a matter of fact, I'll never be higher than 50% with him.
I can only see two pitchers in the rotation whose PCFs might have changed as a result of their own performance: I think Matsuzaka's has improved, and Tavarez's has gone through the floor. Schilling got injured, Beckett has been consistently strong, Wakefield is always a hit-or-miss proposition.
On balance, I don't think the problem is the starting rotation, nor do I think it is "perilously thin". Gabbard is looking like a serviceable #3/#4, and I don't see Lester sucking any worse than Tavarez has of late. Schilling will be back, and he might even be back in good form. Have faith. The main culprit in the June swoon/July siesta was inconsistent offense. It happens even to very good teams (which I think this team is).
Sorry for rambling.
John W-
I messed around with some numbers with Red Sox starting pitchers and their quality starts by month.
Surprisingly, the staff was 13 for 24 (54%) in April, 14 for 29 (48%) in May, 16 of 29 (55%) in June, and 7 of 19 so far in July (37%). While July has been crappy, June was (marginally) the best month for Red Sox starters from a quality starts perspective. That does not support the assertion that it is the starters not pitching effectively that is behind the recent swoon. My approach is probably oversimplified, but I think it says we should be barking up a different tree. (Keep in mind that of six starts in May/June by Gabbard/Pauley/Hansack, they went 1 for 6.)
Commenting by HaloScan
