A-freakin'-men, Chad. Now that is what I would call a reasonable rant. The only small point I'm not sure about is this: when you say OPS is a misleading statistic, are you just referring to the OBP component? Because JDD is the poster boy for that. Any day of the week he can show you how a bases-empty single and 2 walks in five trips will net you a stunning .600 OBP.
Drew would be an adequate performer if we'd hired him at Coco Crisp money to be the leadoff man. Unfortunately, we paid him middle-of-the-order money to be an RBI man, and that's not working out. I still think he'll be better after a year of adjusting to the new league, but that ain't helping us in 2007.
If the Sox do somehow manage to blow this season, we will look back on this weekend as the turning point. What's really surprising is that it's the bullpen letting us down -- it was supposed to be the strong point. Aside from Eric Gag-me, we also might be seeing the Okajima bubble deflating... and we might wind up turning to Delcarmen and Buchholz, the same way the Yankees are turning to Hughes and Joba the Hutt. (Where have you gone, Yankee Clippard?)
I sitll don't think it's the ghost of Jermaine Dye that's going to haunt them. Call me stubborn, but I just don't think he's that good. This team's strong point is supposed to be pitching -- and if we're going to succeed this year, it'll be pitching and defense leading the way, not another middle-aged outfielder.
What is it with you and lowell? He's hitting 375 with a 444 obp over the last 7 games with 4 doubles. No, he's never going to give you arod numbers, but not bad for a 6 hitter.
Do you just have it so ingrained in your mind that he's going to have a second half collapse that his statistics don't matter? Bizarre.
I wouldn't say that necessarily about the Gagne trade now, given that Kason Gabbard had left the game after 1 pitch in the 2nd inning due to left forearm tightness.
Is it rock bottom? Of course. The Yankee fans are drooling at this because it'll be more recent IF the Red Sox falter. I don't think they will. They're too good of a team to falter. Also, you know, despite the Yankees being on fire, the Red Sox aren't collapsing by any stretch of the imagination. Sure it looks like it, but the Yankees are just very very hot right now.
However why not look at what IS going for the Red Sox right now? The pitching, as you have mentioned, is fantastic. Pedroia and Youk are looking like a very good 1-2 punch. JD Drew is actually starting to hit recently(he DID have three hits yesterday). Lowell is still hitting well and is having(well to him at least) the best second half he's had in a while. The bullpen, save for Gagne whose playing like an embedded Yankee, is still really really good. What this all comes down to though is just simply two things: Luck and Schedule.
Let's be honest here, the Yankees have had probably one of the easiest schedules this year so far(heck even now in their rough spot they have benefitted with the crummy end of Cleveland's rotation(save for Carmona) and a Detroit team who can't get anybody out these days) I mean weren't they the ones who actually got to face the PIRATES in interleague when it's supposed to be an NL West year? Though on the bright side they do have a meaty part of the Orioles rotation to go up against(Rookie of the Year Candidate Jeremy Guthrie, a hit or miss Daniel Cabrera, and Cy Young candidate Erik Bedard)and the Orioles have played them tough this year too. Besides it's only fair they keep up the tough playing.
Here's to a good homestand though for the Red Sox.
To be optimistic about it... this reminds me of an NBA game where one team goes out to a big lead and then proceeds to lose almost all of it. Every 20-point lead seems to dwindle down to 4 points, and you're sure the team is blowing the game.
But it takes a lot to come from way behind... and usually, the comeback team starts sputtering and loses the game, often by double digits.
I'm not sayin' that will happen to the Yankees. But I am saying they've had to perform at the highest possible level just to get to this point, and chances are, they cannot sustain it. They're not as good as they look right now, and the Sox aren't as bad.
Hey guys, an O's here. Great blog! I agree that Francona should have walked Millar and/or put in Papelbon. Your lineup would have likely feasted upon our remaining options in the bullpen: Paul Shuey, Brian Burres, and Rob Bell. Still, yes, now we are even for the Mother's Day Massacre, as it is known in B'more.
But my real reason for stopping by is to alert you all to the fact that despite the O's taking that series, you need to dust off that Orioles cap and root for us Baltimorons for the next three days. That's all, just three days. Because if you're at all lucky, the O's could put a crimp in New York's style for 2 out of these next 3 games. There's no way NY's pitching staff remains this good. Karstens is pitching on Tuesday. We got Bedard going on Wednesday vs. Hughes. Root for the O's to play spoiler!
I'm a little tired of the analyses that say "NY has to play .731 ball while we play .600 ball for them to win the division." Guess what, IT'S HAPPENING. Or those who say the schedule will balance it out, when NY just swept Cleveland, and we know Baltimore and Tampa Bay have a tendency to mess up the Sox. Or "Sorry Yankee fans, it's not 1978" on the BDD site. Nobody comes back from 0-3 in the ALCS, either. This is baseball. Anything can happen. I hope it doesn't, but I don't feel good.
dan the man
I know you O's fans feel pretty much the same way about the Yankees as we do, and trust me we could not be rooting any harder for you. If the Birds take 2 of 3 in the Stadium they'll look more kissable than Alyssa Milano. And I am betting your Canadian Erik will pitch a helluva lot better than our Canadian Eric has been.
Mark,
Lowell has one homer in 125 at bats in the second half. His slugging percentage is down 80 points. And three of his seven doubles this half came in the same game. That is bad for a No. 6 hitter. I like the guy, but he falls off the planet power-wise EVERY SINGLE YEAR, and it's happening again.
And yes, Bob, I meant OBP. I'm a dope.
"That is bad for a No. 6 hitter."
Compared to who? What scale are you using? I checked the 6th place hitter for the angels, orioles, mariners, and tigers in yesterday's games and lowell blows them all away except for detroit. Their 6th place hitter is almost identical. Most teams would kill to have lowell hitting 6th.
If he drops for the rest of the year, fine, you predicted it. But when listing boston's problems lowell is at the very bottom at this point. Show anyone his stats now before the season and they'd take them. Not so with ortiz, manny, and drew.
And the line about 3 in one game? Reaching.
I may be wrong, but I believe Manny has hit into more double plays than he has hit home runs this season. Then add in the bone head base running errors and bad fielding...
To night when his name is announce he's earned being greeted with a crescendo of boos.
Yeah, please, us O's fans would LOVE to have Mike Lowell batting CLEANUP for cryin out loud. The guy has more RBIs than anyone on our team, which includes guys who probably should be better than Lowell, like Tejada and Markakis. If you start feeling bad about Ortiz's numbers at DH, pop on over to Orioles.com and look at the guys who have batted DH this year at some point for the O's (Millar, Huff, Gibbons, Knott, Tejada) None of them even come close to Papi.
I hate to say it but I don't think this is rock bottom yet. It's a given that the Stanks are going to sweep the Birds, and if the Sox don't sweep the Rays, then we are CLOSE to approaching rock bottom.
You guys are all right about Boston having the best pitching, but guess what, we had our three best starters lined up for the Baltimore series for the first time since early June, all three pitched well, and Boston lost 2 of 3.
This year is starting to resemble 2006 more & more each day. All that's missing is another Boston massacre in two weeks in the Bronx, and it'll be deja vu all over again.
And re:Lowell, even if his numbers are dipping again, he is still the most reliable, consistent, and right now probably the most feared man in the lineup. I shudder to think where they'd be without him.
Chaddy Finn,
Talk about dazed and confused--your description of the "Bleacher Buttafuocos in the Bronx" and comparison to the '78 season convinces me you're undoubtedly in denial about all the other times Boston was defeated in the 11th hour by the Yankees. No excuses the best team won!
Mark,
One homer in 125 second-half at bats. One. Yes, he had a great first half. Yes, you can cherry pick stats from the last seven games to show a mini-hot streak. But I'm not "predicting" anything, I'm simply using history, and what's happening at the moment, as reasons for concern. I really hope he goes on a tear that lasts through October. But everything we know about the guy suggests that's not going to happen.
Manny's last 3 run HR was July 22nd against the White Sox. Garland gave it up in the bottom of the first.
That was almost a month ago when you think about it. 22 days. Yikes.
One homer in 125 second-half at bats.
Well, he's on a pace for 21 and he's only hit over 30 once his entire career.
Look, I get what you're saying. I wish the guy had more pop also. It does seem to vanish during the second half. I'm just saying that when you line up boston's problems he's at the bottom of the list. I hate to think where we'd be without him.
Imagine where the sox would be if manny, ortiz, and drew were having better years. Picking lowell as a problem is like complaining about your squeaky brakes when the engine won't turn over.
Mike Lowell is a swell guy and everyone likes him, but he's in the midst of his annual second-half power outage.
That's what I wrote, and AFTER talking about the failures of the heart of the order. I'm all for being called out when I'm wrong, but please don't take my words out of context.
Mark, this one's for you. Just showed up in my email box from Chuck Waseleski:
Mike Lowell has 22 hits (11 home runs) off of over the Green Monster in 203 at bats at Fenway this season.
I'll add this: He couldn't have picked a better time for his 2d homer of the half.
what was that about it being a given that the yanks will sweep the birds? think again buddy, 12-0, you love it cuz that lead is back to 5 games.
I'm all for being called out when I'm wrong, but please don't take my words out of context.
I apologize if you feel that way. Not my intent. You said in the beginning that you were writing out of frustration. So I understand where you're coming from.
Like I said, I just think at this point if you put what has gone wrong in one column and right in the other Lowell would be in the first. He's given more than would have been expected at the beginning of the season.
I hope he proves everyone wrong and has a good last part of the season, but even if he doesn't, I'd hate to see where the sox would be without him up to this point.
Here are our corner numbers for the second half: 225-353-369-3-7; 339-395-441-2-7. Now who do we concern ourselves with Youk(he of the first line) or Lowell???
Easy:
Both.
But mostly I just wish Manny and Papi would get it going at the same time. It's such a bummer watching those two guys struggle.
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