I still think the data is questionable. There's no doubt that the incentives for a 3rd child are tempting, but the French have been known to quibble with the numbers to make them look better than they really are.
On the other hand, if the data is true, but the reasons for them are something else like a return to their Catholic faith (I always tend to look for the positive in this regard) then maybe we are seeing the return of France as the first daughter of the Church!
"and the TFR in most majority-Muslim countries is below replacement and falling, too."
-- that should be "in most majority-Muslim countries from which emigrants to Europe come/came".
Algeria, Tunisia, Iran, Turkey -- they're all below the magic 2.1 now, and still falling. Morocco's still a bit above, but going down fast; it was 8 in 1970, and about 2.5 now.
It's falling very rapidly in the others, too. For example, Jordanians now have a lower TFR than Israeli Jews.
There seems to be a sort of 'stickiness' that suddenly 'breaks' as people start actually making conscious decisions about reproduction, and then you get a mass readjustment.
It's all much more abrupt than the long slow downward drift that happened in the Western countries. French birth-rates started slowly declining in the 18th century, for example.
As to the rebound in French and other European TFR's, I suspect "sibiling effect".
TFR's in Europe were already low 25 years ago.
But the best single predictive factor for how many children a woman has is the number of her brothers and sisters.
Even when the overall TFR is very low, a disproportionate number of children will be born into families with more than 2; their life-experience will be of families of that size.
Thus Germany has a very low TFR, but it isn't because there are huge numbers of only children.
It's because about 35% of German women don't have -any- children.
The remaining 2/3 of German females have an average of 2-3, and many have more.
Hence when -their- children reach marriage age, you'd expect an uptick.
Demography is an example of what SF calls "if this goes on". Many classic SF stories are straight extrapolations.
But generally speaking, "this" doesn't "go on". Trends produce countertrends. If something looks unsustainable, it won't be sustained.
Thus very low fertility is unsustainable; and it isn't sustained. If nothing else, those who don't reproduce simply deal themselves out, and the next generation is genetically and memetically the product of those who do.
Predictions of galloping overpopulation, to take the other side of the coin, likewise run up against countervailing trends -- witness China or Iran.
I'm telling y'all, it's in the water over here.
If you want to track US demographics in advance, one good trick is to watch the reproductive patterns among media/movie stars.
Really, I'm not kidding.
A generation ago, Hollywood actresses usually had very small families, if they had children at all.
Now, 2-4 seems to be average. Not counting adoptions.
This ties in neatly with the long-term trends in the US.
Are there any other cultural markers in France?
i.e. those with higher church/synagogue/mosque attendance are having more children (does anybody in France even go to church more than the obligatory once a week anymore?,
or geographic divisions?
i.e. in the U.S., the average woman has 3 kids or more in Idaho or Utah, in Vermont, she has 1 kid or less?
If so, the article seems to be pointing to an uptick in Northern Europe, so I would imagine higher fertility rates in Normandy or Picard, and smaller in Provence or Acquitaine...
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