DELAWARE WATCH
Dana,
While I don't dispute the idea that the military is more split in this election than a lot of people think (after all, Ron Paul got more military donations than any other GOPer and he was calling for an Iraq pull-out as well), I think it is important to note what the Huffington Post did not: I looked at the AP survey and tried to replicate it through the FEC website and couldn't even come close. I had some serious methodological questions about how they constructed that survey, and I don't think they actually proved anything. (Just one example: the dollar disparity ignores the fact that many Obama military donors were more likely to give significantly more than $200, whereas McCain had more smaller donations. This suggests to me as a working hypothesis that the Dems enjoy more support among the college-graduate and higher-paid officer corps, while the GOPers still have a handle on the enlisted ranks who are at best high school grads. Which would mean that as a voting population the military may be much more representative than most people think.)
I don't disagree w/ your analysis. Nor was my intention to suggest otherwise. In fact the article I cited references a poll that has McCain clearly ahead among military personnel.
My entire point was only to suggest what I wrote and cited: viz., that there are measures by which Obama enjoys a substantial base of support within the military and it is probably indicative of his position on the war: i.e., getting out.
I suspect McCain will win most of the military vote, but I doubt it will be the rout some think it will be.
I agree
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