According to Stratfor, my prediction seems to be true:
ABKHAZIA: The separatist regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia should receive independence from Georgia following Montenegro's successful vote for independence, Sergei Bagapash, the unrecognized president of Abkhazia, says.
This will definitely put more wind in their sails and will make it harder to pick and choose who deserves independence. I think Montenegro is a fabulous example because we stopped the violent breakup of Yugoslavia, leaving some together and made the rest (Kosovo, MOntenegro) do it peacefully. Build institutions through real on the ground security and long term stability, then democracy. As Kaplan says, democracy is best when it comes last.
Chirol, you're definitely right that Montenegro's secession supplies an argument for would-be secessionists elsewhere. The question is whether it makes an substantive difference.
Have to confess that I've been puzzled for well over 10 years about our remaining wedded to the extant nation-state system.
In purely academic terms, I "get" why post-colonial elites in sub-Saharan Africa wanted to keep their colonial borders -- self-interest, power, yada yada.
As a policy matter why do we assume that extant nation-states should remain in their current configuration? Why should there be one "Iraq"?
I take Montenegro as a good sign.
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