[quote]Latest On Yankees and Mike Gonzalez
A baseball source indicated to MLBTradeRumors.com that the Yankees and Pirates are working on a trade that could be Mike Gonzalez and Nate McLouth for Ian Kennedy and Melky Cabrera. [/quote]
from - mlbtraderumors
Why would would they trade Ian Kennedy who's being compared to Mike Mussina with superior control?
No, Cashman please don't trade Kennedy , Can the yankees trade someone else like Steven white?
#2 please , I voted
Gotta go with Pinstripe Potentials. I think that it sounds better. Plus, if once Cash is no longer the GM, you'd need another name.
Bill, Kennedy can't really be traded until June. He can be a "Player to be Named Later" in a strange deal, but not much else.
And it doesn't sound like much of a deal even if we could trade Kennedy. McLouth is a terrible hitter, which pretty much makes the deal Melky + Kennedy for Gonzalez, which we won't do.
Sounds just like a bad rumor to me.
Does anyone where I can get some videos on Iwamura? thanks
Will there be World Baseball Classic again this spring? does anyone know?
I think Cashman is thinking Phillips could replaced cairo as infielder. Andy can play 1st, 2nd and 3rd.. Canizaro will be backup for Jeter.
WBC is back in 2009 and then in 4 years.
I like the 2nd option better.
I like Cash's Crops better but now that I read the comments "Player to be Named Later" might be even better.
Scouting Yanks Prospect #37: Bronson Sardinha
http://story.scout.com/a.z?s=303...2%
2f602269.html
Does anyone have subscription for scout.com? Please post the whole article. Sardinha will replace melky if he gets traded.
Sardinha is getting closer to New York By Patrick Teale
Date: Dec 19, 2006
The New York Yankees selected Bronson Sardinha in the first round of the the 2001 MLB Draft out of Kamehameha High School in Hawaii. Known more his offensive potential, Sardinha has showns flashes of being a great hitter but has struggled at times with consistency. Ranking #37 among the Top 50 Yankees' prospects, here's is a scouting report on Bronson Sardinha.
Argus, I will not allow posts from Scout.com to be posted on this site. I am a subscriber to the site and respect the hard work that Teale and others put in to their articles. I sit back and look at my computer screen, but they actually go in to the field and talk to players.
http://www.minorleaguebaseball.c...t.jsp?
content=3
Jose Tabata, OF, Yankees (125)
2006 stats: [A] .298 BA/ .377 OBP/ .420 SLG
2006 Club: Charleston ETA in Majors: 2010 2006 Pre-season Rank: NR
There are few prospects who elicit as much excitement as the Yankee outfielder. The Yankees can take their time with the teenager, though he may make it tough as he continues to figure things out. 2010??? wow... I guess, Yankees have to wait.
I would like the Yankees to go after next year free agents - Andruw Jones, Ichiro, and Jermaine Dye if the Yankees don't resign Abreu and offer him a contract. My plans for Yankees outfield next year
move Damon to left - Andruw or Ichiro in center right - Kousoke fokodome or Jermaine dye
thoughts?
It's too much.
First off, you are leaving Hideki Matsui without a position. Matsui will likely stay in left field until Jason Giambi is gone, when he will move to DH.
The Yankees may benefit from one outfielder, but we certainly don't need 2 or 3. If Melky isn't traded, we have one right there. Andruw is going to command a HUGE contract, Ichiro is overrated, and Dye is getting up there in age. I'd rather just keep Abreu.
Don't forget about Sardinha, Gardner, and Christian. At least one of those three is going to become a quality major leaguer.
A baseball official close to the situation said the Yankees' efforts to land lefty reliever Mike Gonzalez in exchange for Melky Cabrera seemed to be "fading away."
http://www.nj.com/yankees/ledger...ll=1&
thispage=2
Redsox Blocking Yanks Again?
Redsox supposely are going after Mike Gonzalez as well now Pirates are asking for Proctor, Cabrera and Cash; not sure what the redsox offered however.
I like name number 2
I like Pinstripe Potentials better. Do you think the whole Melky for Gonzalez trade will go through. I like Melky and hope he stays. However, I also see why Cash would like a better LHP out of the pen then Myers and Villone. Could Igawa be an option for the pen if Pavano comes back healthy? We wouldn't need 3 LHP's in our starting rotation and I'd be more comfortable with Pettite and Johnson starting since neither would be a good fit in the pen.
"Quote from Bronxbomer06"
The biggest reason why the Yankees have not won the World Serise since 2000 is because we trade all are good young prospects for other teams garbage. You also do not win by putting together a fantasy team, which a lot of you idiots think this is. You never trade a young position player like Melky for a relief picher, no matter what his age is. I promise you if they make this trade we will not win the World Serise again this year. The biggest problem with this team is we do not have enough young hungary players, and all you jackasses want to trade one of are best young players for a pitcher with a suspect arm. If Cashman makes this deal he does not have a clue when it comes to putting a team together. We are not set in the outfield because we have three fragile outfielders, and a injury prone juiced up DH who are going to get hurt.
My answer was to him..
No your wrong Bronxbombers06. The reason Yankees haven't the world series because they don't have good bullpen to replace dynasty days with mendonza/stanton/nelson to be help bridge with Mo. Last year and this year playoffs Yankees starters and bullpen fail to land and hand the ball to Mariano. Mo's never got started and sitting bullpen dugout...
Brian Cashman should Be fire and letgo If boston and theo swoops in with package with Coco Crisp/Wily mo Pena. Cashman needs to block Gonzo and prevent him going to boston. This Boston team already stacked and adding romero, donnelly and their recent offseason moves. Redsox need a one piece , that is a closer. I will blame Cashman if Boston won world series because they added Gonzo to their bullpen.
Do you think it was mistake that Yankees traded for Arod? The Redsox official wants Arod's wants his contract and salary to be reduce and lower than current salary. Players union would not allow it to happen and making Arod in pinstripes.
Do you believe in Curses? I think Arod's brought curse of bambino and badluck to this team.The 2004 Alcs changes baseball history since Arod's arrived in pinstripes. In my opinion, between Yankees/Redsox rivalry, They switch places vice-versa. Redsox became the Yankees and Yankees turns to Redsox.
Malik, Arod was an outstanding pickup. After Soriano was traded, he had only one good season before free agency. Arod had an outstanding regular season in 2005 and there is no doubt in my mind that if you replace Soriano with Arod, we don't make the playoffs.
I think that a few things are missing since the dynasty teams.
a) Dominant starting pitching. We have at best had two starters who are above average every season. We have five in 1998.
b) Roster Flexibility - We are too locked in to our set lineups. The dynasty rosters had an ability to adjust to the situation that we don't have.
c) To go with 'b', a manager who is willing to be flexible. Torre has completely lost his drive to win at all costs. He'd rather make the safe move than go for the win.
d) A solid defense. We had one of the best defensive lineups in the game year after year. Jeter isn't as good as he used to be. We miss Tino at 1st and Scotty at 3rd. Our outfield corners are sub-par.
e) Luck. We had some pretty fortunate moments during those playoff seasons. We've lacked that.
From John Manuel - Baseball America
We are ranking the organizations tomorrow, as it happens. WE did have
the
Red Sox higher coming into 2006, but both Jim Callis and I are on
record in
chats as considering the Yankees system as being both deeper and better
at
the upper levels than the Sox. One fact to consider in recent years,
though,
is as much as the Yankees deserve credit for impact players such as
Robinson
Cano and Chein-Ming W@ng (and solid products such as Melky Cabrera),
the Red
Sox have produced a lot more of late--Papelbon, Lester, Youkilis,
Freddy
Sanchez, Hanley Ramirez and Anibal Sanchez--that's a pretty darn good
group.
But right now, the Yankees system is better, particularly at the upper
levels. Both teams had pretty good drafts this year, Jim gives an edge
to
the Red Sox' draft and I think I would too because of its balance.
--
John Manuel
Does anyone know if the Redsox have to forfeit their draft picks this year since they sign lugo and drew this offseason?
The keys for winning The Al East - contribution and production of middle yankees lineup pf 4-5-6 hitters?
Yankees 4-5-6 hitters were inconsistent last year and not able to produce run in key spots in big game-
Abreu - had great numbers in Redsox series but disappear in sept and exception of game 1
Arod - unable to produce in late innings and key situations
Giambi - hit .260 last year. He was bothered by his wrist injuries throughout the season
True or False
Pavano will be the wildcard to win Al east.
Japanese left-hander Igawa tours Yankee Stadium
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/ne...tory?
id=2704229
Igawa's pic wearing Yankees jacket
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/te...388730&
team=nyy
Pinstripe potentials is a good name.
Poonani (38 special) hstarted a Prospects yankee blog but never really followed up on it so why don't you and him collaborate on this one?
This is the one he started..http://bronxprospects.blogspot.com/
2006_08_01_archive.html
If Mike and Travis can do it so could you two.
I've really thought of it Felix. I've been thinking of bringing together a series of Yankee bloggers for the new blog.
Tune in this weekend. I'm going to build the blog tomorrow and transfer everything over to the blog this weekend.
Hey Ej, I found another website features yankees prospects.
http://www.projectprospect.com/p...ba-chamberlain/
a nice little profile about him
Very nice little profile there. It's amazing how much prospect information is available on the internet.
I like Fire Torre the best - it reflects your edge. But, if you have to change it I will vote for Pinstripe Peotentials
Official 2007 Predictions
from Prediction Man
AL East: Red Sox 105 - 57
AL Central: White Sox 98-64
AL West: Angels 95-67
AL WC: Yankees 97-65
NL East: Mets 102-60
NL Central: Cubs 90-72
NL West: Dodgers 95-67
NL WC: Phillies 92-70
AL MVP: David Ortiz
NL MVP: Ryan Howard
AL Cy Young: Johan Santana
NL Cy Young: Freddy Garcia
AL ROTY: Josh Fields
NL ROTY: Rich Hill
Red Sox defeat Angels in 4
White Sox defeat Yankees in 6
Red Sox defeat White Sox in 6
ALCS MVP: David Ortiz
Mets defeat cubs in 4
Phillies defeat Dodgers in 5
Mets defeat Phillies in 6
NLCS MVP: Carlos Beltran
Red Sox defeat Mets in 7
World Series CO-MVPs: David Ortiz and Matsazuka
105 wins for the Red Sox? Dude, that's hilarious.
I'll be doing an official prediction when more of the big free agents settle down.
Stop going crazy guys. The Red Sox haven't improved by 17 wins like kj thinks.
http://www.timesonline.com/site/...id=478568&
rfi=6
Uodate on Melky/Gonzo trade.
With the Pirates again fixated on LaRoche, trade talks with the New York Yankees have cooled. The Yankees were willing to deal outfielder Melky Cabrera straight-up for Gonzalez last week but balked at the Pirates' request for a second player because of their concerns about Gonzalez's elbow.
The Pirates and Yankees discussed various multi-player trades earlier this week but couldn't come to an agreement.
Boston continues to eye Gonzalez but the Pirates turned down an offer of infielder/outfielder Eric Hinske and also seem to have limited interest in outfielder Coco Crisp.
--http://buccoblog.mlblogs.com/my_weblog/
The Pirates lost minor league infield coordinator and rover Alvaro Espinoza to the Yankees today. That's a pretty big blow to our developmental team in the farm as Espinoza is known to be very good.
Wassup Ej, Do you know anything much about him?
The name only isn't too familiar to me.
Wasn't he a Yankee in the 80s?
http://www.baseball-
reference.co...espinal01.shtml
He played for yankees in 88-91
Daisuke Matsuzaka Projection
http://www.rotoauthority.com/
200...ke_matsuza.html
I hate to be another guy asking solely for projections of another player but I'm interested in Kei Igawa's projections in comparison to Matsuzaka's. I wonder if Igawa will really end up being half the pitcher that Matsuzaka is as his salary suggests. Granted he had a great year in Japan, but from what I've read, Matsuzaka is expected to be an ace while Igawa is expected to battle for a fifth spot in the rotation...that leaves me wondering about possible statistics for the 2007 season.
Zxyu, I think that D-Mat projects to the 3.40-3.80 ERA range and Igawa to the 3.80-4.20 ERA range. By conventional scouting lingo, D-Mat would be a "#2 starter" and Igawa a "#3 starter".
Bug Selig wins Executive of the Year? I'm sorry, what?! This is a guy who is sitting back and watching the Red Sox pay $51 million to have a chat with a pitcher who has never played in the Major Leagues, the Royals pay $55 million for Gil Meche, a number 3 starter at best, and JD Drew back out of a contract with a team he did nothing for except sit on the disabled list because he's nothing but a wimp with lots of money. Selig says baseball is experiencing a "golden age," a "Renaissance." Sure, we've had seven champions in seven years, and things are playing out fine on the field, but Selig is supposed to deal with the stuff that goes on behind the scenes, and he's doing nothing. The commissioner was originally brought into baseball to deal with these problems with an iron fist. Bug Selig's fist is more like a dead fish.
Yankees should permit Damon grows his hair back and return to his caveman look. By Damon's cutting his hair, he loses all his strength and been ineffective in the playoffs. I think The Caveman and Jesus looked great Damon, that's The reason why the Sawx won in 2004.
Before Samson's birth, an angel tells his parents-to-be that Samson is to be a Nazirite "from birth until the day of his death" (Numbers 13:7). Samson's hair was never to be cut. His long hair is a symbol of his dedication to the Lord, and the source of his great strength. When Delilah has her Philistine friends shave Samson's head as he sleeps in her lap, it breaks his Nazirite vow, and also his superhuman strength. Samson ends out blinded and shackled in prison, where he was forced to do the monotonous, and, for a man of those times, disgraceful work of grinding grain with the hand mills that the women used. As our reading ends, we are given the hopeful note that "the hair on his head began to grow again." If you don't know the exciting climax to this story, read the rest of Judges 16 when you get home!
Sweeny Blog: Yankee Update 12/21 -
http://wfan.com/pages/
150962.php...ontentId=262094
I'm happy and proud that Arod's working hard and losing 10 pounds this offseason. For once, Yankees Fans should lay off him
That's good to see. I think that a lot of Arod's defensive woes stemmed from the extra weight that he put on. He was a gold glover in 2004 when he weighed 220 but was terrible in 2005 and 2006 after he put the weight on.
Of course, the extra muscle may have helped him push 48 home runs out in 2005.
Kevin Long is an excellent hitting coach and gets a lot of credit from me for Melky Cabrera, Robby Cano, and to a limited extent Andy Phillips. I'm excited to see him in the Bronx.
out of the two, i like Cashman's Crops, but i think a better name is out there somewhere
Kei Igawa Projection
http://www.rotoauthority.com/
200...gawa_proje.html
[quote]
Let's roll along to a Kei Igawa projection. Will he be half the pitcher Daisuke Matsuzaka is? After all, he's half the cost.
I'd say yes, he's more than half the pitcher Matsuzaka is, in that Igawa's ERA should be under 6.80. Beyond that, though...
We'll start off with a 180 inning projection for Igawa. He's averaged about 193 per season in Japan. As the team's probable worst starter he's liable to be skipped a few times and things like that.
In a nutshell, I am calling for a 6.0 K/9, 9.8 H/9, 3.2 BB/9, and 1.35 HR/9. Plug it in and you get a 4.97 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, and 11 wins.
I'm certainly open to a little tweaking with this one. But I do think that if Igawa is topping out in the high 80s and lacks a useful third pitch, he's going to be hit hard in this division. The Yanks' lousy defense isn't going to help with all the balls in play.
How Igawa's 8 per nine innings-ish strikeout rate translates from Japan is an open question. Maybe he keeps it somewhat strong with deception and unfamiliarity, but I'm skeptical. I'm also told he's a flyball pitcher and hence prone to the longball. I suppose Igawa's control could be a little better but it kind of bounced around in Japan.
In a mixed league it'd be suspect to toss in anything more than a buck on this guy. There are better gambles, young guys with who could put it together. Billingsley, McCarthy, Loewen, Davies, Greinke, Pelfrey, Humber, Lester, Garza, Gorzelanny, Eveland. Opportunity is a question with some of that group but at least there's upside. These experts picked Igawa in the 26th round.
From BA on the top 2007 draft prospects:
COLLEGE
1. David Price, lhp, Vanderbilt
3. Joe Savery, lhp/1b, Rice
4. Matt Wieters, c/rhp, Georgia Tech
6. Brad Meyers, rhp, Loyola Marymount
10. James Adkins, lhp, Tennessee
11. Eric Berger, lhp, Arizona
Some Price stuff:
http://www.pgcrosschecker.com/
su...otebook_as.aspx
Scout's top 100 for 2007 (Price is #1 right now, Sean Doolittle LHP U. of Virginia is #4):
http://72.14.203.104/search?q=ca...us&ct=clnk&
cd=5
As with BA, Michael Main and Robert Stock are two HS pitchers who are near the top, as well. Both throw in the 90s as HS juniors.
I don't really see any position players who stand out right now other than Weiters annd Savery, who also both pitch. So, to answer your question, right now, David Price looks the best.
BA also listed the top HS players but that list changes so frequently I didn't want to get into it right now as those guys will not be to the majors, most likely, in the timeframe you are talking about.
Who do you think Yankees should go after next year in mlb draft since they have last pick?
I haven't really taken a good look at the draft yet (It's pointless to do so until May in my opinion), but I've heard amazing things about Kellen Kulbacki. He's a power hitting 1st baseman who has great peripherals and almost hit .500 last season.
I'm not a fan of Roto's projection of Igawa. I think that they need to realise that Igawa struck out more than Matz in Japan.
A lot of people are looking at Nomo/Ishii/Irabu and going crazy with their projections. The difference between those three and DiceK/Igawa is that the newer guys don't suffer from the same control issues. Ishii, Nomo, and Irabu walked the ballpark in Japan, and walked even more in America.
My prediction is that Igawa will have an ERA between 3.80 and 4.20, and I'm sticking to it.
"Quote from Idiot Redsox Fan named 2004redsoxchamps"
how can you call yankees overrated? In every position they have a ALL Star but I think they will feel the Wrath this yr and miss the playoffs and Torre era is officially ended..
thoughts? about this idiot redsox fan comments about yankees not making the playoffs next year and he's rejoicing that Joe era will end in bad note and yankees dynasty will be over.
I'm sorry that you decided to move the Blog in a different direction but I wish you the best of luck with the new format.
Pitchers' duel
Daisuke Matsuzaka vs. Kei Igawa
By Mike Chiappetta
http://www.nbcsports.com/mlb/682...219/
detail.html
Interesting Article between Igawa's and Dice-k.
So the Yankees have to pay over $9 million a year for him, and if he stinks and the Yankees can somehow trade him and not have to eat some of his salary the Yankees will only have to pay a little over $5 million for him for the rest of his contract.
Damn, I hope somehow, some way... he works out.
http://www.baseballthinkfactory....._york_yankees/
W@ng projects to 12 wins? Rj predicts to win 19 ballgames next year.
GGL and New York Yankee Johnny Damon Launch the Professional Baseball Video Game League -
Johnny will serve as commissioner. Good luck..
http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bi...04495275&
EDATE=
In other news -
http://
thetrack.bostonherald.com...rticleid=173119
Side Tracks
That Johnny Damon may be a hated New York Yankee now, but he hasn’t forgotten the kids at Boston’s Franciscan Children’s Hospital. The Bombers’ slugger sent a busload of XBOX 360s, Tonka Trucks, plasma TVs, video games, DVD players and other awesome gifts to the hospital yesterday morning. The haul was worth more than 20 grand
Hughes vs. Matsuzaka:
Say, you forget for a sec that Hughes will cost 100 million less over the next 6 years he still is the better investment. The Reason: Hughes has WAY less mileage on his arm. As far as I know Matsuzaka's arm can fall off 5 years from now. Hughes on the other hand has been more or less babied his entire professional carrier. BOTH have ACE potential, and BOTH are unproven. Hughes dominated AA as a 19/young 20 year old; Matsuzaka dominated the Japanese league as a 25 year old. All signs point that as a 25 year old Hughes would be just as if not more dominant in the Japanese league, if he were to play there. Result: Hughes by an inch or two.
VVang vs. Beckett:
Is there any point of arguing this? Beckett has the worst 3 combinations a pitcher with his talent can have. 1) Doesn't have much movement on his Fastball (result: high Homerun rate),2) Doesn't have much of a change-up(result: high homerun rate), 3) Has bad control(result: walks that set up the big HR). VVang finished 2nd in the CY Young for God's sake. For people who think he's a fluke because he doesn't have a high SO/9 rate. Consider this: Most sinker ballers? clock at 90-93 MPH, VVang clocks at 93-97 MPH. THAT is what makes him successful. If he ever finishes developing his slider he'll be EVEN MORE Lethal. Result: VVang by a landslide.
Sanchez vs. Papelbon
Papelbon's explosive 95-97 MPH made him VERY successful out of the bullpen. Put him in the rotation and that fastball becomes a 93-95 MPH fastball for obvious reasons. Then factor in his shoulder, which must be serious enough not to let him close, he could loose 2 more MPH off his fastball. Now you have a 91-94 MPH fastball. In order to be an ACE with that fastball he needs: 1) Schilling like control (Papelbon had the overpowering control last year, he just attacked the strike zone, WILL he be able to nibble with his fastball when he needs to?)2) A very good Changeup that he can throw for strikes (every indication is that his Change is league average at best, and a splitter isn't something you throw for strikes) 3) A very good breaking ball he can throw for strikes (ever indication is that he has a average curveball.) Even if Papelbon's doesn't loose MPH from his Fastball because of the shoulder, I would bet my money hat he's not much better than a #3 starter. Sanchez on the other hand is almost in the same exact boat. The only thing working for him is that he's got more time to develop good off-speed pitches. Result: As Reliever Papelbon over Sanchez by a landslide, but Papelbon's no longer a reliever so. Papelbon = Sanchez
Clippard vs. Buchholz
Clippard is not only 1 year younger but also was successful one level ahead. Neither on of them project to be an ACE but both project to be a solid #2-VERY GOOD #3. Result: T-Clip by a fair amount due to AGE and level.
Betances vs. Bowden
Dellin by a very good amount. Bowden may be 1 level ahead but Dellin projects to be an ELIT
Who are the Red Sox?
By Evan Brunell | December 22nd, 2006
http://mvn.com/mlb-redsox/2006/1...re-the-red-sox/
"The New York Yankees comparisons … the Red Sox are still the “Calvinist, heroic underdogs."
By Reading this stupid article, I just want to throw up in my computer.
Commissioner's slaps the Yankees with $26 million luxury tax, total nearly $98 million.
Yankees hit with $26M luxury tax, total nearly $98M
[url=http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?
id=2706672]http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/
story?id=2706672[/url]
Mike, there is a reason why I don't bother to read that crap anymore 
Yankees have turned into a joke
I've been a fan for 45 years and this is by far the worst GM i have ever seen.
Brilliant Job by our clueless Gm and FO.
Yeah Matsuzaka was overpaid and he isnt worth it, but what pi$$@$ me off is the yankees idea of fixing our pitching rotation is by signing more washed up players like Andy pettitte and bringing back Mike Mussina.
The yankees had a chance to go after Jason schmidt or Barry Zito but noooooooooo we bring back more garbage.
To top it off the yankees kept on insisting melky was our future and he isnt going anywhere, only to have the FO Lie again to the fans and deal away our prospects.
Joe Torre coming back was another huge mistake the yankees will regret.
This franchise went from " The Most Feared and Greatest Franchise in all of Sports" to the laughing stock of MLB all thanks to our clueless GM .
After 45 years as a fan i can honestly say the yankees lost another fan due to these pathetic moves they have made thru this offseason.
This team isn't worth following anymore.
While the rest of MLB gets younger and better, the yankees continue to get older and dumber.
My Mlb Updated Mock Draft 2007
1. David Price
2. Andrew Brackman
3. Matt Wieters
4.Michael Burgess
5.Matt Harvey
6.Rick Porcello
7. Michael Main
8. Julio Borbon
9. Daniel Moskos
10. Neil Ramirez
11. Justin Jackson
12. Jayson Heyward
13. Cole St. Clair
14. Madison Bumgarner
15. Blake Beavan
16. Josh Smoker
17. Josh Vitters
18. Ross Detwiler
19. J.P. Arencibia
20. Beau Mills
21. Greg Peavey
22. Phillipe Aumont
23. John Tolisano
24. Kentral Davis
25.Tim Alderson
26. Josh Fields
27.Matt Mangini
28. Todd Frazier
29. Danny Rams
30. Tanner Robles
P.S.-Stock isnt eligible to be drafted this year after enrolling early this year at USC
One of the better stats or predicting pitchers' future performance is xFIP, Fielding Independent Pitching with a set percentage of FB% substituted for actual HR/9 because home runs vary so much from season to season. In the case of Boston, it also frees the pitchers from the occasionally questionable 2006 Red Sox defense.
To predict the pitchers' 2007 ERA, I used a weighted average of xFIP, with the following rules:
1) The weights were three parts 2006, two parts 2005, and one part 2004;
2) No MiLB xFIP were used. Where a pitcher didn't pitch in MLB, I used the mean xFIP of years where the given pitcher did pitch in MLB, increased by 10%, to fill in the xFIP for that missing year.
3) NPB FIP, not xFIP, was used. NPB FIP was divided by 0.85 to account for the difference between NPB and MLB.
4) The weighted average of xFIP, adjusted as cited above, was used as the prediction for 2007 ERA without any further regression to the mean.
To predict the pitchers' 2007 IP, I used a weighted average of IP for the past three years. The weighting criteria were the same as listed above, and MiLB and NPB IP were considered the same as MLB IP.
To predict the pitchers' won-lost records, I used the Pythag method with an exponent of 2, assuming that one decision was earned for each 8 IP and that both the Red Sox and the Yankees scored 5 earned runs per game. (Hey, it's the Christmas season...given enough eggnog, the Red Sox lineup looks just as good as the Yankee lineup and, more significantly, pitchers vary more than entire lineups of elite teams).
Given those rules and assumptions, here are the results:
ERA IP Wins Losses
Matsuzaka 3.06 189 17 6
Beckett 4.20 188 14 10
Schilling 3.87 171 13 8
Wakefield 5.20 176 11 11
Papelbon 3.78 105 8 5
Clement 4.98 126 8 8
Lester 5.58 130 7 9
Johnson 3.93 219 17 10
Pettitte 3.55 195 16 8
Igawa 4.22 195 14 10
Mussina 4.02 186 14 9
Wang 4.38 184 13 10
Pavano 4.45 70 5 4
Hawk, xFIP has a couple of flaws to it -
First off, it is completely unable to predict Matzusaka's performance. You can't compare fly ball % in Japan to fly ball % in America. They play a different style of game. Japanese hitters rarely try to drive the ball for extra bases, instead settling for a line drive or ground ball through the infield. Some Japanese hitters do hit for a lot of power, but they are far less common than in America. In addition, D-Mat benefits from the "trick pitch" syndrom that won't fly in the MLB. He throws a 2-seamer, which almost no one is able to throw in Japan.
Second, you can't underrate the difference between the Boston and Yankee outfield defenses. Manny Ramirez allows somewhere between 20 and 40 runs below average (depending on how you adjust for ballpark)in left field alone. Crisp/Pena are below average in center and Drew is good in Right, but not as good as Nixon. We have the below average Matsui, the good Damon, and the average Abreu, plus an average or better Melky Cabrera.
I'll cover a lot of this in my post today on the subject.
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