I hope not, but I can see it coming too.
anonymous | Email | Homepage | 01.13.06 - 1:00 pm | #

He didn't escalate further to a fifth choice -- probable-to-certain after Iran actually USES a nuke:

"NECAP to all units; copy NORAD, copy SAC, copy Looking Glass. Go Code follows; Go Code follows. (string of code letters)."

"(ICBM field call sign) to NECAP; copy SAC, copy Looking Glass. All birds flying."

"(ICBM field call sign) to NECAP; copy SAC, copy Looking Glass. All birds flying."

"(ICBM field call sign) to NECAP; copy SAC, copy Looking Glass. All birds flying."

"(SSBN call sign) to NECAP; copy SAC, copy Looking Glass. All birds flying."

"(SSBN call sign) to NECAP; copy SAC, copy Looking Glass. All birds flying."

"(NSA Keyhole satellite downlink) to NECAP; copy SAC, copy Looking Glass. Weapons exploded on target."

"Weapons exploded on target."

"Weapons exploded on target."

"Weapons exploded on target."

"Weapons exploded on target."

"Weapons exploded on target."

...
Ken | Email | Homepage | 01.13.06 - 1:18 pm | #

Uh... erm.... "That was THEN, this is NOW!"

.. did I say that right, Sen Kennedy?
pettyfog | Email | Homepage | 01.13.06 - 1:22 pm | #

Denial is only a comfort when you are allowed the luxury to have it... so I can only pray that the world wakes up and that we act appropriate and act soon! This post was absolutely spot on and for anyone to blow off the seriousness of Iran's regime's mission and the threat it poses is only fooling themselves.
Liquidlifhacker | Email | Homepage | 01.13.06 - 2:09 pm | #

Sometimes there's no good course of action. I do, however, suggest that we not nuke Iran indiscriminately. Just the areas where they make and store nuclear material. Use the cleanest warheads we've got, watch the weather patterns and do air bursts so the fallout won't be terrible downwind.

Crap. I worked as a MMIII missile mechanic in the 70s. I hoped NEVER to see the damn things used in war. I was so very glad when the USSR fell, it made me think that there was a chance we'd not blow ourselves up. Now some idiot's trying hard to start a nuclear war.

Crap. I hate living in Tom Clancy novels.

J.
JLawson | Email | Homepage | 01.13.06 - 3:09 pm | #

It is a tale told by an idiot full of sound and fury signifying nothing...
anonymous | Email | Homepage | 01.13.06 - 3:11 pm | #

I have commented on this over at No Oil For Pacifists:

What If They Gave A War And Europe Never Noticed?

I don't think it's a good thing, but I don't believe Iran is going to become a "substantial" nuclear state.

I believe that, if they test a weapon it will be the end of this problem, one way or another -- If they provide reasonable evidence of possession of material to make a nuke, it will be the end of the problem, one way or another...

I won't repeat what I said there, if you're interested, I've laid most of it out there.

I am not sure China is as willing to accept a nuclear Iran as is suggested in this piece, however. I do suspect they are weighing the balance of the benefits of letting the West and Islam exhaust each other, leaving them to pick up the pieces (a VERY Chinese tactic -- pure Sun Tzu) vs. the risks of Islam attacking them as well (a bad bed, considering the events in France, I'd suggest) as the West.
Oh Bloedige Hel | Email | Homepage | 01.13.06 - 4:41 pm | #

There's no way the West is going to let Iran develop a nuclear weapon. And yes, it's going to be very ugly. Let's hope that it can be done without involving Israel; otherwise, it's going to be even uglier.

Doc Sanity had it right, though. Take out the maniacal regime first and see where it escalates from there. Maybe it can be stopped there, but it's doubtful.
ddennis | Email | Homepage | 01.13.06 - 4:55 pm | #

I hate to say it, and I know this is very Machiavellian but ....
Our best hope is that Iran hits Tel Aviv & Rome with nukes.
A few thousand/million dead, preferably Europeans might actually get the West to wake up and allow us to defend ourselves.

Unfortunately, and realistically, Iran is too smart to do something this stupid. What I think they’ll do is dance right within the bounds of what Europe will allow. And that will be a nuke in Israel.

Europe is more anti-Semitic now than they have been since WW2. The BBC openly hopes for a “final solution” to peace in the middle-east. The death of millions of Jews will be considered nothing more than what the Jews deserve for the “holocaust” they committed on the Palestinians.
On the other hand, demographics indicate that Islam will own Europe in about 50 years. Iran knows this. So, no need to irritate Europe right now. Nuking Rome (or other EU city) would just be something Europe couldn’t ignore. At a minimum, that European aid money would stop flowing in to the mid-east.

If Iran stays within Europe’s allowable actions, Iran can wipeout the Jews and still maintain their moral superiority.
Neither the US or Israel would allow this and would bomb Iran regardless of world opinion. This would be the best of both worlds for Islam and Europe. Europe would have a threat removed (Iran); it would not have had to actually done anything; and, it would be able to condemn these horrible unilateralist deeds by the US (read “the Jew puppet Bu$Hitler Chimpy McHalliburtin and his rampant Goldstein-ism”). Islam would removed (or at least seriously harmed) Israel, it would have further isolated and caused the world to hate the US, and its nuclear bomb making capability would received only a 5-10 year set back.

Of course, Iran is filled with nuts that believe in their own divine moral righteousness. So, they may be willing to hit both Israel and Europe the first chance they get and assume Allah will protect them.

Victor Davis Hanson is correct. In 1981 the world blamed Israel, not Iraq for building the nukes, not France for supplying the know-how and materials, but Israel for doing the sane thing. When we do the sane thing, and stop Iran before millions die, the world will blame us and have even more leverage to turn the US into a pariah state.

Hanson’s ideal case will never happen. The Dems would rather see Americans die then give Bush support. Katrina (with its maliciously false news coverage) and the NYT’s intelligence leaks show this.
EvilDave | Email | Homepage | 01.13.06 - 7:18 pm | #

Is Iran taking an active role in influencing public opinion in the West (on this issue or others)? How and through whom?
Has Iran actually bought Western allies, and if so, who?
jn griffith | Email | Homepage | 01.13.06 - 7:53 pm | #

Whoi needs to buy? The Dhimmicrats slaver over the idea of punishing America....

We should ship them all off to Europe and let them live with their liberal brethren.
Oh Bloedige Hel | Email | Homepage | 01.13.06 - 8:41 pm | #

Geopolitical realities suggest that the anti-war peaceniks had better get their heads out of the sand and understand that the free world has a lot at stake with these strange alliances, real and potential.

It's probably too late to wake up and smell the Kofi. During the last go-round, he and his oil-for-food scammer-allies were the only ones "buying". Their purchase of peace at any price offered primarily oil-for-weapons and terrorist training, alas.
onlineanalyst | Email | Homepage | 01.13.06 - 9:27 pm | #

OT: Sort of.

Dr. Sanity do you think Ahmadinejad thinks he is the 12th Madhi by any chance?

I'm starting to get that feeling...
Dinah Lord | Email | Homepage | 01.13.06 - 9:34 pm | #

Dinah: The writer of this piece in the UK's Telegraph offers a chilling analysis of Ahmadinejad http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/...14/ ixworld.html
You might reach your own conclusions based on this article and its credibility.
onlineanalyst | Email | Homepage | 01.14.06 - 8:37 am | #

Much of the discussion about Iran misses the point IMO.
J O S H U A P U N D I T: Dancing With Mullahs- What the US and the West need to do to deal with Iran

There are TWO threats we are dealing with here:Iran's nukes and its promotion and financing of jihad.

Taking out Iran's nukes only fixes one of the problems, and temporarily at that, especially if Iran's nuclear facilities are only partially destroyed.

Iran's main interest anyway is not detroying Israel, gratifying though that would be. It is in promoting Jihad through the Caucasus (the Islamic parts of the old Soviet empire)in conjunction with al Qaeda, thus taking control of theis oil and gas rich region and outflanking US bases in the region.

The way to deal with this is for the West to destroy Iran's oil fields and ports along with as much of its nuclear facilities as can be easily got at...after which Iran canbe isolated until it collapses of its own rottenness.

Cut off the Mullah's cash flow and you solve both problems, without the neccessity of a full scale war. Russia would not rebuild Iran's nukes without being paid, and China would find some other nation to be interested in.
Freedom Fighter | Email | Homepage | 01.14.06 - 4:14 pm | #

Cash and nukes - what mullah wouldn't want both? China has absolutely massive energy contracts with Iran. Once China's 3 Gorge dam is completed, it will have 9 times the electrical output of Hoover dam. That electricity will be used for the most part for industrialization. I noted last week that China is just about set to introduce their first car to the US market. In about 30 years, China will be the world's superpower, not the US. Their military techonology is but one small step behind ours,i.e. they have already put a man in space, and they have over 1 billion people. China's focus is on the collective, not the individual. They do not spend money and time on things like OSHA, the ACLU, the EPA and assorted human rights commissions and special education and food stamps and social security. It boils down to whether or not they see a long range threat with islamic fundamentalism. At present, they don't, and they would never approve the use of force against Iran to stop their nuke production. I hope I am wrong, but I think the love of cheap Chinese imports will prevail over dealing with a nuclear Iran. The sad fact is that for most Americans all that really matters is cheap gas and being able to buy merchandise from Wal-Mart instead of just looking at it and fondling it. After all, freedom is great - you can have it your way at McDonalds any time you want. Sorry to rain on the parade, but if intelligent people are radically opposed to going to war with the likes of saddam hussein, what chance is there of any consensus on war with Iran? It is hard to predict what will follow once Iran has nuclear weapons, but people usually get what they deserve, or is it they deserve what they get? The Caliphate can have all the business it needs with China and India, and does not need the West. Once armed with nukes, Iran and like-minded islamists can export and expand at will and there can be no retaliation. It can spread and deteriorate weaker European and secular islamic nations and keep a strong center. We measure time in months and years, they measure it in generations.
goesh | Email | Homepage | 01.17.06 - 8:34 am | #