And the superdelegates - don't forget the immortals. Last I saw, she had a slew of them in her back pocket. I could be wrong....
Seems to me that Obama's only chance is denying her the majority of delegates rather than an outright win, but with her dominance of the superdelegates, it looks grim.
Ladies and gentlemen, I'd like to introduce you to your next president..Bloomberg.
Ok, he probably won't win, and he'll just suck off enough Hillary-hating voters to hand the election to McCain.
I'm going to start drinking now.
Everything on the Dem side is proportional. As long as it's a 48-40-12 race, there's no reason for Obama to drop out ... he can win the Deep South, maybe a caucus or two, and keep things close or even come out ahead.
If the Nevada win moves the race to 55-30-5, and SC doesn't give a boost then it's over.
Just to play devil's advocate, I'll throw out some possibilities:
1. The national poll numbers -- look on TPM EC's site, e.g. Obama is a 45-degree slope upwards and Hillary is in steady decline. Remember, Obama was way, way behind Hillary in Nevada just a couple weeks ago, and now it looks like he'll get more delegates out of the state -- and he's leading in the overall delegate count by a hair.
2. Obama's leading in SC, as far as I know, so if that trend continues he'll be coming off the most recent win and potentially a "turnaround" narrative heading into Super Tuesday.
3. My last read of the money situation is that Obama is still running at a slight advantage and has a strong national presence.
4. I'm not sure about your assessment of the Super Tuesday states --
Of the big states, California trends toward Clinton, but (bizarrely) Obama apparently polls well in New York, and Illinois is on the docket as well.
Obama's looked stronger than Clinton in the Midwest and in Red states, and there's a bunch of them: Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Alaska, Kansas, Missouri, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Utah.
I perceive Clinton as having an advantage in New England, but that's only New Jersey, Connecticut, Delaware, and Massachusetts -- not many delegates. I think she'll edge Obama in New Mexico, Minnesota, and Colorado, and Arizona, but if Nevada, Iowa, and South Carolina are any indication, her margin there won't be as large as Obama's will be in the South and Midwest states.
There's a lot of speculation there, but the bottom line is that I think it's still very much up for grabs at this point.
Specifically, this graph is the one that I imagine the Clinton campaign is worried about.
The irony is that if Clinton does win the nomination, she may very well have Chris Matthews to thank (for being so hateful that he made people feel sympathy for her). Heh heh.
Generally, I feel that it would be better if we all got out of the prediction business. Let's just wait and see.
Two plausible scenarios, one or both would work to make Obama the nominee:
The corporate press/media hates Hillary Clinton. They will do whatever is necessary to derail her campaign.
Hillary Clinton is a Democrat. She will fuck up, for no apparent reason, at a critical time.
This race is changing so quickly I think it's too early to tell what the dynamics will be in two weeks.
Generally, I feel that it would be better if we all got out of the prediction business. Let's just wait and see.
I agree. I have absolutely no idea how anything is going to pan out; the speculation above was just my way of illustrating that it's all still completely up in the air.
We've gone through 111 pledged delegates so far, with only 74 to Clinton and Obama combined. The threshold number to win is 2,025.
There's 1,688 delegates up for grabs on Super Tuesday; 447 throughout the rest of February; 415 in March; 512 more after that. That's a long, long way to go.
This isn't quite a scenario so much as a statement of the obvious: predictions, this year especially, are a total sucker's bet. From "the protracted primary season means we'll know the nominee before February" to "a black man can't win in Iowa" to "Obama wins by 6-10 points in New Hampshire" people -- really, really smart people -- keep getting it wrong.
Now, here's the scenario(s): something happens. Who knows what? But somthing. And Obama picks up momentum. Bill Clinton finally makes people crazy by slinging mud and then throwing up his hands with a "What? Me?" look on his face. Edwards leaves the race and throws his support behind Obama. Edwards leaves the race and Obama promises that, if he's nominated, Edwards will be his veep. Obama wins somewhere unlikely (California) and even more young voters start coming out to the polls. Could be any of those. More likely it will be none and Hillary will get the nomation. Really, though, who knows? Not me.
There's nothing to do but sit back and watch it all unfold. And hope for a brokered convention for the Republicans.
I perceive Clinton as having an advantage in New England, but that's only New Jersey, Connecticut, Delaware, and Massachusetts -- not many delegates.
No matter who's winning this thing, Delaware and New Jersey aren't in New England!
No matter who's winning this thing, Delaware and New Jersey aren't in New England!
Oh, whatever, all Yankees look the same anyway.
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