Webb is a big ass precinct, isn't it?
Corey |
03.07.06 - 5:58 pm | #
Yeah. Fitz it to me!
MsAnnaNOLA |
03.07.06 - 5:59 pm | #
Well, I will keep hoping, and yes,
I did send Ciro some $, but the crooks
seem to have a lock on everything
these days.
afterthought |
03.07.06 - 6:00 pm | #
BTW, I think NO precinct should
report until all are available.
I don't trust that the "last" precinct
to report will have amazing results
just enough to change the overall
result.
afterthought |
03.07.06 - 6:04 pm | #
Cuellar just busted ahead by 79 votes. gonna be a close one.
TiredFed |
03.07.06 - 6:05 pm | #
The "republican" is up now,
only hope is that the "cheat"
precinct mis-calculates the
"margin" needed for a GOP
victory.
afterthought |
03.07.06 - 6:06 pm | #
no Webb County results yet (surprise, surprise). Too bad Delay is ahead in D. 22
TiredFed |
03.07.06 - 6:08 pm | #
No sleep tonight for these eyeballs. They'll be glued to the Burnt Orange Report (BOR) Website which is coverly a slew of races.
Between Annatopia, Pandagon, PinkDome and BOR it seems like it would be a blast to move to Austin.
Lisa |
03.07.06 - 6:14 pm | #
Austin is the bomb. Only other place in the south that I would want to live. Besides my beloved New Orleans that is.
MsAnnaNOLA |
03.07.06 - 6:16 pm | #
Austin's a great town- best in Texas.
rwcole |
03.07.06 - 6:19 pm | #
Sorry OT,
Can someone explain to me how an article by Byron York from National Revue appears on the Libby defense site before it is posted at National Revue?
I knew this guy was a shill, but this is just unbelievable.
If Valley Girl is lurking, my heart is with you, sweetie. I have been reading until my eyes burn and I still feel shock and betrayal. I need to read Greenwald for about an hour, skipping the troll comments that make me insane, and bathe myself in his clear-headedness. I realize we still have Justice Cmte and the myriad scandals and investigations, but today I am just so damned hurt.
zennurse |
03.07.06 - 6:20 pm | #
Mrs. K8---
You can beat my "dead horse" anytime you want to. She's not really dead though, she's just acting out and being her sulky old self. And she's a Democrat horse too. Sometimes definitions get in the way of reality. Did I say that right? Sleep tight tonight, Mrs. K8, for the blessed Mother smiles on you and Mr. K8.
sunflower |
03.07.06 - 6:22 pm | #
Valley Girl, please do take the time you need to rest, refresh, and recreate. Then come back and rejoin us. Your voice is important.
It is easy to become discouraged. Hey, I'm bipolar and am all over discouragement. But we must fight against giving up, there are so many people depending on us. Most people don't know what is going on or what can be done. We do.
Idea: be clear that we are not threatening government officials with violent action, that would bring the goons in here to arrest us all by proxy. We are trying to save the country, don't let them pick us off one by one for something stupid.
Need to be courteous to those who have been assigned to monitor our blog. Howdy, y'all! Just want to tell you guys at the NSA and DoD CIFA that we love our country and love our Constitution, that's why we're here. We still think the Constitution is a good idea, even though the current government officials may have given up on it.
I believe that God is still in control of everything that happens, even in these dark times.
egregious |
03.07.06 - 6:25 pm | #
"Fox News and conservative talk radio are flapping their rubber gums with pseudo indignation over the high-school class in Parsippany that's conducting a war crimes trial of Bush, but it's entirely plausible that someday a similar proceeding may be held at the Hague, or in the foyer of Hell. High school isn't a bad place to start."
Dover Bitch |
03.07.06 - 6:26 pm | #
Can we just assume they'll cheat? I mean, really. Why divide your attentions? Just know they are going to cheat and figure out how to most effectively challenge them.
That or kill and eat them.
The Chocolate Proton |
03.07.06 - 6:29 pm | #
"Can someone explain to me how an article by Byron York from National Revue appears on the Libby defense site before it is posted at National Revue?"
That reminds me, bow tie boy has been MIA at MSNBC for two days now!? Surely he's not on vacation, he had plenty of time off when he was preempted because of the Olympics.
Cozumel |
Homepage |
03.07.06 - 6:29 pm | #
from WaPo: the 1990 census population figure for TX28 is 566,477 as you watch the feeble results trickle in ...
Wilson46201 |
Homepage |
03.07.06 - 6:29 pm | #
moi -- It appears to be in the National Review subscriber edition, something -- like sex -- that their readership must pay for.
jane hamsher |
Homepage |
03.07.06 - 6:33 pm | #
1990? Who cares.
Might as well be 1890.
afterthought |
03.07.06 - 6:34 pm | #
Whoa!
The Scoreboard: Monday, March 6
25-54 demographic:
Webb County is a county located in the U.S. state of Texas. As of 2000, the population is 193,117. By 2003 its population had been estimated to increase to 213,615. Its county seat is Laredo.
BullGoose |
03.07.06 - 6:37 pm | #
Byron York is a complete and utter tool. And it wouldn't surprise me if he is somehow connected with the Libby defense team. Good catch on having it posted before the National Review does though.
I wonder with all the buying of press this administration does - is it possible Libby's defense team has hired York?
narexbyrnes |
03.07.06 - 6:37 pm | #
Has it really come to this in American elections: either we win it or they steal it?
Very discouraging, these reports of the old (or dead? -- one has to wonder, eh?) voting for a reactionary like Cuellar?
PrevT: Where is Rockefeller? Where is Reid? Why don't the Democrats stand up on their hind legs and cry foul about the SSCI vote today? I'm very sorry to see our country re-engage the Nixon-on-Frost theory that "if the Preznit does it, it's legal." Are there three co-equal branches of government or not, Senator Snowe?
Not that I'm a big fan of the third branch, nine people in robes who are salivating at the opportunity to rule on the new South Dakota Taliban forced-childbirth law.
=====
TeddySanFran |
03.07.06 - 6:37 pm | #
And anyone should care why,
Cozumel?
afterthought |
03.07.06 - 6:37 pm | #
moi -- It appears to be in the National Review subscriber edition, something -- like sex -- that their readership must pay for.
jane hamsher | Homepage | 03.07.06 - 6:33 pm | #
i am trying to find the official current population figure but it should be remembered that the total number of humans counted by the Census in all districts is a little over half a million.
Wilson46201 |
Homepage |
03.07.06 - 6:38 pm | #
Eeeeew
That explain's why I didn't see it.
moi |
03.07.06 - 6:38 pm | #
caution, legal question: wouldnt ex post facto apply to making Bush law-breaking "legal" after the fact????
TiredFed |
03.07.06 - 6:40 pm | #
I'm coming in late. OMG that photo on the previous thread - is really Olympia with Tipsy McCokehead?
Clue-by-four Olympia - EVERYBODY FUCKING HATES THIS ASSHOLE! And even Dems continue to act like he's some cute ride at Disney World that we can't afford to diss.
JESUS MOTHERFUCKING FUCK!!!!!
SOMEBODY ANYBODY WAKE THE FUCK UP
Sharkbabe |
03.07.06 - 6:41 pm | #
I care.
jane hamsher |
Homepage |
03.07.06 - 6:42 pm | #
I gotta speak up for the sex workers and their clients here, Jane... please don't lump NRO readers in with perfectly sane paying customers.
Is there no way to comment at fdl without pissing SOMEONE off?
just cause the Constitution envisions making things illegal (or more illegal) as time goes on, does that mean it doesnt apply when Congress in their infinite idiocy makes something legal that was once illegal?
TiredFed |
03.07.06 - 6:43 pm | #
Both the Austin Statesman and News 8 Austin have Rodriguez at 6113 and Cuellar at 2677. This is with four precincts reporting. Very different from the official TX secretary of state results.
Jeannie Z |
03.07.06 - 6:43 pm | #
somene made a very astute comment upthread about how odd it is that the republicans don't seem that worried about the '06 elections. here in NY a poll was released today showing that Elliot SPitzer walk away with the election against all comers.
Today, coincidently, DOJ made a motion for a preliminary injuction to force NYS to buy the new untested machines that do not meet state standards before spetember '06.
Maybe that's why they are not worried. They don't even (really) have a candidate and don't seem too upset about it at all. Odd, very odd.
looseheadprop | 03.07.06 - 5:09 pm
You'll know that the fix is in, if Clinton doesn't throw a fit about the machines and vote tampering.
egregious |
03.07.06 - 6:44 pm | #
links, please, Jeannie Z?
so we can all keep track and, perhaps, crash their servers inadvertently....
-
TeddySanFran |
03.07.06 - 6:46 pm | #
On Countdown tonight, Keith and Howard Fineman seemed to take it as a given that Delay would win today. But the margin of victory that would tell the tale in November.
Loved that Abramoff's lawyer has threatened to name names. Howard Fineman was strongly hinting that it was someone who worked for the President and Vice President. Rove?
narexbyrnes |
03.07.06 - 6:49 pm | #
Jane. we all care. thats why we're here. thanks for all the amazing writing from you and RH.
TiredFed |
03.07.06 - 6:50 pm | #
Surely he's not on vacation
Cozumel, last night at regular time for bow tie boy show to start, he (pre-recorded?) came on and said he would be on vacation all week. with Tweety as substitute.
neurophius |
03.07.06 - 6:50 pm | #
I care.
jane hamsher | Homepage | 03.07.06 - 6:42 pm | #
--------------------------------------------------
------------------------------
Thanks, Jane. In a pissy mood today, and that gave me what I needed. I care too.
Urban Pirate |
03.07.06 - 6:51 pm | #
So, can anybody tell me as I look at the races in Texas (thanks Jeannie Z!) exactly which contested GOP races my Preznit had to fly back to Crawford to vote in -- ON MY DIME???
--
TeddySanFran |
03.07.06 - 6:52 pm | #
Thanks, Jeanne Z. Unusual.
jane hamsher |
Homepage |
03.07.06 - 6:52 pm | #
Cozumel, last night at regular time for bow tie boy show to start, he (pre-recorded?) came on and said he would be on vacation all week. with Tweety as substitute.
neurophius | 03.07.06 - 6:50 pm |
Thanks, I hadn't heard that. You too, Jane ; )
Cozumel |
Homepage |
03.07.06 - 6:55 pm | #
caution, legal question: wouldnt ex post facto apply to making Bush law-breaking "legal" after the fact????
TiredFed | 03.07.06 - 6:40 pm | #
Ex post facto considerations arise only when looking at conduct that was legal when it occurred - can't change the law to make it illegal, then retroactively prosecute.
Doesn't really matter here - they're going to simply ignore the statute that was violated, and give him a shiny new one to piss all over.
jayt |
03.07.06 - 6:57 pm | #
Does anybody know the story with the voting machines in Texas? Are we going to be seeing some *creative* vote counting?
michie |
03.07.06 - 7:00 pm | #
Anybody heard from (me)? The guy who was such an inspiration to trust Fitz?
colleen military mom |
03.07.06 - 7:00 pm | #
Jane -
Please, whatever happens in Texas tonight, do NOT be discouraged. We care -- your loyal myrmidons -- and we will be here for you and with you and ON you if things don't go well.
I care. We care. We all care.
And we all care that we all care.
And we all care that you care.
That's why we're here.
Although sometimes we get distracted and give the ones we love a tongue-lashing.
Election-stealing or not, the Bush Administration is losing its grip on power. If they try to finish the term out, DC will look like Berlin after the Russians got done with it.
For those of you lacking multi-window capability.....
TeddySanFran |
03.07.06 - 7:06 pm | #
a word about election results: the figures you see on election night are UNOFFICIAL. they are gathered by a local consortium of news media. in Indiana, each precinct counts its votes so a runner is sent precinct to precinct in the hour after closing to get the quick results. official results have to be certified county-by-county and then sent to the Secy of State. this may take days.
the "newspaper figure" is usually pretty accurate unless the vote is very very close and will be contested...
Wilson46201 |
Homepage |
03.07.06 - 7:06 pm | #
Nice to see democracy flourishing in Tex ass
I guess when you're under indictment in Tex ass, it means never having to express regret.
God, Texans have their heads as far up their asses as Arnold's Army in CA
Will wonders never cease.
.
Tom DeLay (i) Rep 9,522 64%
Tom Campbell Rep 3,933 26%
Gentleman Jim |
03.07.06 - 7:08 pm | #
TeddySanFran | 6:48 pm --
You know Jane better than that by now. No mere SUV belt will do, not even one from a Porsche Cayenne.
Buckle up, it's going to be a bumpy night.
Rayne |
Homepage |
03.07.06 - 7:08 pm | #
Cozumel | Homepage | 03.07.06 - 6:36 pm | Great catch with Olbermann's numbers. Thanks.
John Casper |
03.07.06 - 7:09 pm | #
I really hope Ciro wins.
I need some some good news today
with the NSA vote and all.
I hope you are all better at being
positive than me.
afterthought |
03.07.06 - 7:09 pm | #
Ciro still looking good. got 73% of the vote in Bexar County. will be interesting to see the "fuzzy" numbers from Webb County with 10% of the population of Bexar County.
TiredFed |
03.07.06 - 7:09 pm | #
I just want to say that I really love this place and admire all the commenters, and especially Jane and Redd, whose writing I love, even though mine looks so bad by comparison.
I don't say much but I read it all - at least eventually. Bad night - I walked for 45 minutes and lifted weights till I couldn't any more - so so pissed. So tomorrow morning I'll still be pissed - and sore to boot.
Inspirational, this place is. Time to shuffle off.
jayt |
03.07.06 - 7:11 pm | #
never mind. that's only 1 precinct in Bexar County reporting so far. going to bed hoping for some good news in the a.m.
TiredFed |
03.07.06 - 7:12 pm | #
John Casper,
Going by memory, that's a huge increase in his ratings.
Cozumel |
Homepage |
03.07.06 - 7:13 pm | #
holy crap:
the margin is too big for them to steal it!!
moron |
03.07.06 - 7:17 pm | #
Cozumel - I thought O'Reilly's ratings were say 321,000 when Olbermann was on Friday. I don't remember exactly either, but that looks like a big jump.
I'm exhausted, but with the Ciro results looking so positive I want to stay up to watch them come in. Good to end a rough day on a pleasant note.
B. Muse/Southern Dem |
Homepage |
03.07.06 - 7:18 pm | #
you are probably right, moron, but not necessarily... its only 41% of the vote...
Wilson46201 |
Homepage |
03.07.06 - 7:20 pm | #
B. Muse/Southern Dem,
Click on that link upthread. All the ratings are on there.
Cozumel |
Homepage |
03.07.06 - 7:24 pm | #
Yep. This blog is an inspiration. Keeps me on an even keel.
colleen military mom |
03.07.06 - 7:24 pm | #
Most of the vote reported on the official site is "early" vote (absentees I guess).
rwcole |
03.07.06 - 7:30 pm | #
The votings going a bit different in Vermont. Four towns have passed resolutions demanding the impeachment of George Bush.
Almost more importantly is that it looks like the mayor of Burlington will be a progressive because of the new system of instant run-off voting. Wild.
o |
03.07.06 - 7:31 pm | #
gawd: even CNN International has been taken over by cancer-coverage!!! usually its my refuge from the inanity of missing-white-wimmin...
Wilson46201 |
Homepage |
03.07.06 - 7:33 pm | #
Wilson- "half a million"
registered to votes might be half of that. Gotta be some goopers- say 200,000- that would leave 300,000 registered dems- 34% turnout would give ya 100,000.
rwcole |
03.07.06 - 7:33 pm | #
This blog helps me too. I keep thinking marathon, not sprint. It's not like this administration has a reserve of actual competence or talent to fall back on. But exposing how compromised the media is, and countering Rovian/Atwater tactics will take time. And blogs like this help so much ....
narexbyrnes |
03.07.06 - 7:33 pm | #
Oops- cut my numbers in half- 50,000 dem voters.
rwcole |
03.07.06 - 7:34 pm | #
Speakin of missing/murdered white women- Rita's got a new one apparently. She'll ride the corpse for a month or two.
rwcole |
03.07.06 - 7:35 pm | #
Just back from taking time with my partner to celebrate his birthday.
Too early to tell on the vote results. Relax. We'll know soon enough. And even then it may not be over.
Pachacutec |
03.07.06 - 7:36 pm | #
Sorry, I got a little distracted with the new but dirty news about Clay Aiken:
Just updated again. With nearly half of precincts reported, Rodriguez has 54% to 60% of the vote, depending on which source you look at.
Jeannie Z |
03.07.06 - 7:38 pm | #
Well, my dd has the latest vote totals up. It all depends on Webb county because that went heavily for Cuellar last time ....
Of course, Webb county is having problems with touchscreens. Of course!
narexbyrnes |
03.07.06 - 7:41 pm | #
Just updated again. With nearly half of precincts reported, Rodriguez has 54% to 60% of the vote, depending on which source you look at.
Jeannie Z | 03.07.06 - 7:38 pm
It's still early, this could flip in a hurry. Looking good though!
Cozumel |
Homepage |
03.07.06 - 7:42 pm | #
Ciro's is the only local campaign outside of my own state I've ever contributed to, thanks to FDL.
I don't like reality-based anymore. It doesn't have much of an upside.
dana |
03.07.06 - 7:45 pm | #
Sigh.
I really need to do some work writing about how social movements develop and grow.
Our expectations here are not realistic, though we are making great progress. But we tend to focus on the wrong measures, get demoralized and then hurt our own continuous momentum.
I really need to write about this with some background in a short form that people can read in a brief sitting.
Hang in there, folks. This is one small front on a very large front in a long term war that we are beginning to win as an insurgent movement. We may win this skirmish, and we may not.
But no matter what, I hope - no, I expect - everyone to suit up again tomorrow.
Pachacutec |
03.07.06 - 7:50 pm | #
Oh my god. I got tired of wall-to-wall cancer coverage on CNN and decided to try watching Scarborough for a change. But I just cannot stand it. What an arrogant, narrow-minded, pig-headed blowhard!
neurophius |
03.07.06 - 7:51 pm | #
And you know, I hope, that I say this stuff with all the love in my heart.
I have deep respect, admiration, even awe for this whole community and the wider grassroots/netroots progressive movement.
Pachacutec |
03.07.06 - 7:52 pm | #
Some perspective on Webb county: it has 98,000 registered voters in 30 precincts.
Bexar, on the other hand, has 877,000 voters in 102 precincts with about 3% turnout, 80% counted.
Jeannie Z |
03.07.06 - 7:53 pm | #
Patriot act thing to cover the NSA thing.
Why do I get the feeling that now that the media is a monopoly crony loving place that is willing to go with profits every time over reporting.
I mean you have to do something, but what can you do when there is nobody to report. Their function is replaced by same old insider crony capitalism and rating.
Like www.tomdispatch.com was pointing out - they don't even call it Gulf War II or Iraq War II, or even a war --- and I mean the reporters, never mind the Rove strategy to not call it a war. Its "the situation in Iraq", or the "little-w" "war on terror". I mean God look at the folks dead and wounded and then get on a news broadcast an not put the story under the Iraq War - that aint right.
Then on the line down the scandles until you get to one like the election scandels and then you start thinking...whats the fucking point.
The point is the butterfly effect. I teach my kids, and talk with my friends and people I meet, and write a comment now and then because that is what I want to do - and I think that giving up is not worth it.
"Fight with every tooth and nail
with every brick and stone."
- Steel Pulse
gleex |
03.07.06 - 7:54 pm | #
"What an arrogant, narrow-minded, pig-headed blowhard!"
LOL I wonder if that's on his resume' ; )
Cozumel |
Homepage |
03.07.06 - 7:54 pm | #
Hang in there, folks. This is one small front on a very large front in a long term war that we are beginning to win as an insurgent movement. We may win this skirmish, and we may not.
But no matter what, I hope - no, I expect - everyone to suit up again tomorrow.
Pachacutec | 03.07.06 - 7:50 pm | #
good half time locker room pep talk! thanks.
squirrel hiller |
03.07.06 - 7:54 pm | #
I believe you, Pach.
dana |
03.07.06 - 7:56 pm | #
Some reality based live blogging from Chris Bowers (most recent entries at the top):
# With 77% (or thereabouts) of the non-Webb county vote in the situation is as follows: Ciro 11,269 (56.40%), Cuellar: 7,304 (36.55%), Morales: 1,408 (7.05%). Projection: Cuellar 53.28%. Not a single word from Webb County yet. Most of Cuellar's gain in my projections are coming from Frio, Zapata, and Atascosa counties.
# What sort of swing do we need from Webb? A big one--like ten or eleven points. We need Cuellar to only get around 73% of the vote there or less to force a runoff.
# This is going bad. We are going to need Morales to take away a lot of votes from Cuellar in Webb County. Of course, Webb County, Cuellar's stronghold, still hasn't reported yet due to problems with touchscreen machines, or something. I'm really starting to get pissed off about that.
# With nearly half of the vote counted, current totals: Ciro 10,041 (55.41%) -- Cuellar 6,767 (37.34%) -- Morales 1,313 (7.25%). Current Overall Projection: Cuellar 53.26%.
# With 36% of the vote counted, current totals: Ciro 8,585 (58.87%) -- Cuellar 5,016 (34.39%) -- Morales 983 (6.74%). Current Overall Projection: Cuellar 52.47%. We need to start pulling this back very soon.
# In case you are wondering why I am still porjecting Cuellar ahead despite Ciro's robust lead in the actual vote count, Webb County, which accounted for over 31% of the vote in 2004, has not reported a single vote yet. And in 2004, it went 84-16 for Cuellar.
I would add that Chris' projections are based on his turnout assumptions. If turnout is unusually low in Webbm then his projections change a bit.
But I would bet that the numbers cookers are working on that.
Expect litigation in this one, I think.
Pachacutec |
03.07.06 - 8:00 pm | #
Pachacutec is right. This is a continuing struggle, and today is just one skirmish. You keep pushing. We and reality have been kicking the other side for months, and they've been on the defensive, unable to control the front pages -- that is a massive change, huge progress, from a year ago. Keep pushing.
No matter what happens tonight, you tend to your wounded, weep for what is lost, then get up and kick their butts again.
Think of South Africa, or Chile. The Chileans never gave up, even when their nightmare was a hundred times worse than ours. But they came back, and now the war criminals are in the docks.
scarecrow |
03.07.06 - 8:02 pm | #
Webb the only one not reporting?
Yeah, that doesn't seem at all
suspicious. No really, I am sure
everything is on the up-and-up
over there. Must be a coincidence...
again.
afterthought |
03.07.06 - 8:07 pm | #
Worth noting. This is a Democratic primary race only. Only registered Democrats can vote in this race. Independents can't, like they can in some states.
Cozumel |
Homepage |
03.07.06 - 8:09 pm | #
Bowers' latest entry:
With 84% (or thereabouts) of the non-Webb county vote in the situation is as follows: Ciro 12,495 (56.85%), Cuellar: 7,939 (36.12%), Morales: 1,544 (7.03%). Projection: Cuellar 53.64%. SSP just posted the following:
--------------------------------
"The Rodriguez campaign has a team headed down to Webb County including campaign counsel and representatives. While this is happening Ciro is addressing the hundreds of supporters who have gathered at our headquarters on the South Side of San Antonio. A supporter just called in as well and asked if the banks in Laredo were closed."
--------------------------------
This is so much like OH-02 it is scary. This has fraud attempt written all over it. Notice that I say "attempt." Trying to committ fraud and succeeding are different things. Wanting to committ fraud and doing it are different things. Committing fraud and having it change who won an election are not always the same thing. I don't know what is going on, but it sure looks like they at least attempted something in Webb.
Pachacutec |
03.07.06 - 8:10 pm | #
Update III: Cuellar has a history of screwing around with Webb County voting. In the last election Ciro charged that 500 of the votes that put Cuellar over the top came from people who were registered in vacant addresses or homes where they did not live in Webb and Zapata counties -- including Cuellar's campaign manager, Colin Strother, who was registered at the address of Cuellar's parents.
The Cuellars, in an interview with a reporter Monday, said no one named Strother lives there.
Told of the allegation, Cuellar spokesman T.J. Connolly said that when Strother agreed to work on Cuellar's campaign, he was given a salary and the option to live in a rental property at Cuellar's parents' home.
Strother reportedly registered and voted at that address, although he has been living with his wife in another location outside of District 28 as part of her employment compensation. The two have been planning to relocate to the Cuellar residence, but furor over the campaign has kept them from doing so, Connolly said.
"He knew that's where he'd be residing long term," he said.
Well I'm convinced.
jane hamsher |
Homepage |
03.07.06 - 8:10 pm | #
"and we pray for no loss of life of course..."
-baby Bush after getting the warning on Katrina
"The President was not there to participate in the full briefing (nappy time) he was there to lift the spirits of the people."
Scotty "Scotty Don't" MacClellan
"Our president, the worlds most powerful cheerleader."
- Jon Stewart
gleex |
03.07.06 - 8:13 pm | #
afterthought,
I was thinking the same thing.
Webb is the ONLY county, that does not have ONE single darn precinct reporting. Every other county has at least one precinct reported in.
That looks damn suspicious to me.
John Casper |
03.07.06 - 8:14 pm | #
"But no matter what, I hope - no, I expect - everyone to suit up again tomorrow."
Pachacutec | 03.07.06 - 7:50 pm
Same here Pach, and I always love what you write. Like you, like Jane & Redd, like everyone here...
I CARE.
I will keep caring, keep progressing, keep speaking up to keep the pressure on, and keep my spirits up and head high. When frustrating things happen it sets my determination stronger and channels my energy, my chi, towards positive change and resolutions. We won't give up, we're not the types, and for that I love all of you even more.
Shez |
03.07.06 - 8:15 pm | #
The outcome of one of the closely watched primary races in Texas will likely not be known for sometime, as voting results from Webb County have been held up due to a technical glitch.
With only a small percentage of results in, incumbent U.S. Rep Henry Cuellar was trailing former Congressman Ciro Rodriguez in the Democratic primary race for the 28th Congressional District seat.
Several key counties, including Cuellar's Laredo home base of Webb, still had not reported early vote totals. The Laredo Morning News is reporting that voting machines had been incorrectly programmed, and as a result votes would have to be extracted from flash cards attached to each machine.
I think I have cancer.
BullGoose |
03.07.06 - 8:19 pm | #
Pachacutec, your words of caution do not fall on deaf ears. You talked me down off the ledge when I thought Rove was going to skate by unindicted, and that has given me a deep faith in your level-headedness.
Thesaurus Rex |
Homepage |
03.07.06 - 8:20 pm | #
Kinda bummed. It doesn't look like Rodriguez is going to pull it off.
Bullgoose? Is that a joke?
Thesaurus Rex |
Homepage |
03.07.06 - 8:21 pm | #
having seen the democratic party machine in new haven steal votes back in the late '80s (a favorite tactic was sliding the name labels off the proper lever at polls old age homes voted at) - and tracked weird absentee results - remember that neither party has a lock on stealing elections.
Hope Ciro has a good team who know how to challenge all this!
siun |
03.07.06 - 8:22 pm | #
Jeannie Z | 03.07.06 - 8:19 pm
I think a lot of people are going to owe you for that comment, otherwise, a lot of us might have stayed up past our bed time.
John Casper |
03.07.06 - 8:23 pm | #
Thanks Jeannie Z. Off to bed ...
narexbyrnes |
03.07.06 - 8:25 pm | #
TRex and others:
I'm here for ya, guys.
One thing I do have is the big picture, and strateguc sense.
Well, maybe that's two things.
Hopefully I'll be able to make my background thinking more clear in the near future.
Pachacutec |
03.07.06 - 8:26 pm | #
With 86% (or thereabouts) of the non-Webb county vote in the situation is as follows: Ciro 13,216 (57.61%), Cuellar: 8,127 (35.41%), Morales: 1,596 (6.96%). Projection: Cuellar 53.62%. Not enough to make this up outside of Webb anymore.
Pachacutec |
03.07.06 - 8:29 pm | #
"said no one named Strother lives there."
malice doesn't live here anymore
cbl |
03.07.06 - 8:30 pm | #
So these guys are just applying the lessons of Cook County 1960 but 46 years later -- never report your "owned territory" votes until you know what your guy needs? Except now the bad guys have buggy touch screens to blame.
Holding back one precinct, or the precincts where you own the vote-counters (or have the motherboards for the Diebolds) is really the oldest trick in the book. With the visibility and money Ciro has nationally, I really hope he will get the resources and the support -- which ought to come from Pelosi, Dean, Reid, Emanuel et al -- to fight this result if it's stolen from him.
But it may very well be that the results already in will make actual fraud unnecessary. Ciro did not get the turnout he needed outside of Webb.
Pachacutec |
03.07.06 - 8:34 pm | #
Hypothetically, how many stolen elections would it take until a sufficient numbers of citizens would express their discontent with serious action? And what would be that serious action?
Hypothetically, of course. As in, hypothetically November 2006....
two beers |
03.07.06 - 8:36 pm | #
State of Texas Link
8,542 Cuellar
14,557 Ciro
24,784 Total Votes
69% Precincts Reporting189/276
Pach, is your 8:29 declaring Ciro the winner?
John Casper |
03.07.06 - 8:38 pm | #
John Casper | 03.07.06 - 8:38 pm | #
Not at all.
I'm quoting astute election observer Chris Bowers in projecting Cuellar the winner.
Pachacutec |
03.07.06 - 8:40 pm | #
Dirty Delay walked away with around 60% too.
Folks in Texas must like corruption, executions and giveaways of tax revenue to the wealthiest 1%.
The Delay victory is repulsive.
rwcole |
03.07.06 - 8:43 pm | #
Speakin of missing/murdered white women- Rita's got a new one apparently. She'll ride the corpse for a month or two.
rwcole | 03.07.06 - 7:35 pm | #
There's always another one. If you want another one. Or a factory fire. Or a highway pile-up. Or a car chase. Anything but what has relevance to our lives.
michie |
03.07.06 - 8:43 pm | #
" John Hamilton, who drove from Ithaca to see Chomsky, stood up to ask a question during the question-and-answer period following Chomsky's speech. "My question is, what do you find hopeful?" Hamilton said.
"I think one should be very optimistic for the reasons I just mentioned," Chomsky said. "The large majority of the population already agrees with the things activists are committed to.
All we have to do is organize people who are convinced."
Keep the fringe issues to the fringe, and if you are motivated by a fringe issue remember: first we have to elect officials willing to investigate the current Senate, House , and White House, oh, and military, oh and corporations that receive no bid contracts.
Then you can worry about your fringe issue.
You will have absolutely zero forum to voice your opinion if our democracy continues to be supplanted by neo facism.
One voice- investigate, prosecute, reform.
Unless a Dem runs on the Reform platform, you have no reason to give him a vote, he'll just spend two more years caving in to Bush.
If we send this message it works in two ways, sends the dems a message, and scares the shit out of the GOP. Makes any investigating that much easier.
For the record, a woman's right to privacy and choice is acceptable to the majority of Americans. That qualifies as an issue...
wyonate |
03.07.06 - 8:44 pm | #
I'm remembering why I got out of campaign management and went to work with computers ... election night is a killer! (flashbacks to the watching Lieberman beat Weicker ... Weicker's staff was helping us on a local challenge and it was a hard night)
My guess is that we can swing attention and money but without the party machinery fighting with us, we'll need a lot more bodies and cash than we have yet ... and we need to train good pollwatchers for every district we need to win. Hopefully Ciro has that with the union support ... they do know the ropes and Cuellar's moves are not unexpected ...
Victor Morales Dem 2,145 6%
TeddySanFran |
03.07.06 - 8:55 pm | #
No. Tom Delay still in the game is a good thing. Keeps the blood in the water.
Pachacutec
****************************
He does make a nice face-lifted, hair-dyed, dentally capped poster boy for corruption, arrogance and abuse.
-GSD
I was discouraged by the prospects of another "flag-burning" amendment campaign and the wretched thought of the jingoistic breast-beating and the ever nauseating "America, right or wrong" shit that looks like it will be coming down the pike in a red, white and blue bus with Garry Glitter music blaring from the speakers.
The devil in that is our side does not like to be organized.
We have some demons to expel from ourselves first. I want to take that subject on before too long, too.
Pachacutec |
03.07.06 - 8:56 pm | #
Posted by DavidNYC Some bad news. "With 189 precincts reporting, I compared things to last time out (2004). Henry Cuellar is performing better in every county in TX-28 compared to the previous race:
County 2006 2004 Change
ATASCOSA 29.27% -25.92% 55.19%
BEXAR -57.18% -59.63% 2.45%
COMAL -27.92% -44.98% 17.06%
FRIO 19.63% -7.87% 27.50%
GUADALUPE -25.27% -45.65% 20.38%
HAYS -26.45% -28.89% 2.44%
LASALLE 30.54% 14.34% 16.19%
MCMULLEN 69.41% 20.34% 49.07%
WEBB ??? 68.27% ???
WILSON -10.01% -29.62% 19.61%
ZAPATA 70.70% 46.75% 23.96%
The first column (2006) is Cuellar's county-by-county margin this year. The second column (2004) contains his margins from two years ago. The third column shows the delta - how much Cuellar improved by. As you can see, he's done better in every single county this time out. I have to say that at this point, I'm not sanguine about Ciro's chances once the Webb Co. results finally come in.
P.S. This only looks at the margin between Cuellar and Rodriguez and doesn't include Morales or anyone else, for either year. And obviously, I'm relying on incomplete data for a lot of the counties in 2006, so things could conceivably change. "
Victor Morales Dem 2,145 6%
rwcole |
03.07.06 - 9:00 pm | #
Actually, most election watchers expected Morales to draw off the Cuellar vote a bit more.
Ciro Rodriguez supporters were hoping MOrales would draw close to double digits, or break 10%.
Pachacutec |
03.07.06 - 9:00 pm | #
This one seems to be headed in the wrong direction.
rwcole |
03.07.06 - 9:01 pm | #
Looks like it's all going to come down to the percent absentee in Webb. Anyone have the figure for last year? If it's actually 65% the Ciro is pretty much done...
Adam |
03.07.06 - 9:02 pm | #
Interesting. The Austin Statesman was reporting Rodriguez with a big lead with 190 precincts reporting. Then, without changing the number of reporting precincts, suddenly Cuellar has a 3 pt. lead. Whaaa?
Prolly just forgot to update the precinct count, but it's a little weird to watch somebody go from getting their ass kicked to leading in the space of five minutes.
Dick Tickle |
03.07.06 - 9:03 pm | #
(of course that assumes that the distribution is roughly the same for in-person as for absentee)
Adam |
03.07.06 - 9:03 pm | #
Interesting. The Austin Statesman was reporting Rodriguez with a big lead with 190 precincts reporting. Then, without changing the number of reporting precincts, suddenly Cuellar has a 3 pt. lead. Whaaa?
The change came from early vote reporting in Webb county; no new precinct totals were actually added in.
Adam |
03.07.06 - 9:04 pm | #
rwcole | 03.07.06 - 8:56 pm
Thanks, that's some sterling analytical work, very depressing, but still sterling.
John Casper |
03.07.06 - 9:05 pm | #
John- not mine- but good- (if accurate).
rwcole |
03.07.06 - 9:06 pm | #
Looks to be over- assuming that what hasn't yet reported is mostly Webb.
rwcole |
03.07.06 - 9:08 pm | #
Webb County so far from the State of Texas site.
Cuellar 8,145
Ciro 789
John Casper |
03.07.06 - 9:09 pm | #
rwcole -- most of what hasn't been reported is probably Webb. There's just enough other stuff out there that Cuellar could fall a touch below 50%, but it's definitely long odds.
Adam |
03.07.06 - 9:11 pm | #
The Webb vote so far is all early--that is-absentee I guess.
rwcole |
03.07.06 - 9:12 pm | #
Looks as if every incumbent is winning.
rwcole |
03.07.06 - 9:15 pm | #
It's basically over.
Likely won't require a runoff.
We'll see how the dust settles, but it will be time to move on soon.
Here's the thing to remember:
In promoting our new progressive movement, we will lose most of the time, especially in the beginning. But even the losses are necessary to help our networks or activists gain skills and to erode the establishment.
A Rodriguez loss is disappointing but not at all fatal. Venture capitalists bet on losing companies more than they bet on winning ones. Longshots are the name of the game.
We push longshots, because we are trying to fundamentally change the status quo. That's what we do fer chrissakes. Cuellar had all the advantages of incumbency. So let's put this in perspective.
And I've got news for you: Lieberman will more likely push his challenger down, too. But that does not mean we should not fight him, and it does not mean that an electoral loss will be a strategic loss.
Making them fight is making them fear. Our abilities to threaten them, and then beat them, will grow with time. Even by scaring Lieberman, if that's all we can do, we will be sending him, and others, a message.
Be patient, keep fighting and see the big picture.
Pachacutec |
03.07.06 - 9:16 pm | #
Pacha- by 2012--Gooperism will be a dying creed- condemned by it's own failures and demographics- it's only a matter of how soon the house crumbles.
rwcole |
03.07.06 - 9:20 pm | #
Be patient, keep fighting and see the big picture.
Pachacutec
Thanks for the buck-up. Well needed and right on the mark.
That's alright. There isn't anybody named "Dick Tickle" either, so I'm guessing he took no offense.
At least I hope there isn't anybody named Dick Tickle. Jeebus! [For those keeping score at home, "Jeebus" is not a word.]
Dick Tickle |
03.07.06 - 9:22 pm | #
It was the impending demographics that led to GW Clusterfuck's aggressiveness. He knew that there was little time left for goopers to have a chance at winning the White House- without major surgery that would render the party unrecognizable.
rwcole |
03.07.06 - 9:23 pm | #
I agree with Pachacutec. Any kind of resistance is better than complacency. One must gradually build muscle when one wants to become strong. It doesn't happen overnight. Each time we join our voices and our dollars, we give the opposition a message that our numbers are growing stronger. We can either roll over and play dead or stand up for our principles. Our nation is at the corrupt brink of fascism. If we don't act, we let it happen. Sorry. I'm not going to look back at the end of my life and regret not even trying to do something about it.
jcricket |
03.07.06 - 9:24 pm | #
Let's all go to the FDL actBlue page and give some more money to Ned Lamont -- I know I am, right now!
More on Gitmo, and the last bit is:
"If the stories of the chicken farmer and the men with the wrong watches are new, the broad outlines of this disaster have long been visible. It is shocking in itself, and in the fact that average citizens have not risen up to demand that these abuses come to an end. The founding fathers knew that when you dispensed with the rule of law, the inevitable outcome was injustice. Now America is becoming the thing they sought to end."
dana |
03.07.06 - 9:27 pm | #
I'm off to bed.
Tomorrow we continue to fight.
Pachacutec |
03.07.06 - 9:29 pm | #
Let's just hope Webb County doesn't wait to see the votes that they need to win before reporting.
I just gave some more money to Ned, c'mon y'all, let's be sure Jane goes to bed with a little more hope than just the defeat of Ciro, if in fact that's what happens in TX-28 tonight!
Looks as if it won't really be close when everything is counted. Challenger needed to improve on previous margin outside of Webb- but actually lost ground there.
rwcole |
03.07.06 - 9:32 pm | #
Well there ya are- primaries- pretty rare for an incumbent to lose a primary- and hang onta yer hats- we've got 49 more of these suckers ta go.
rwcole |
03.07.06 - 9:39 pm | #
Good news to have primaries over and to have the goopers committed to their candidates- let's see em win from the "big house".
rwcole |
03.07.06 - 9:43 pm | #
Funny -- I just ran my own (pretty much generic) model and I've got Cuellar coming out with 54.3%. I wonder if Bowers was doing the same thing.
Adam |
03.07.06 - 9:45 pm | #
'night pachacutec, thanks to you and others here this evening for the level headedness
cbl |
03.07.06 - 9:46 pm | #
Good news to have primaries over and to have the goopers committed to their candidates- let's see em win from the "big house".
Yeah in the long run I can't feel that bad about Tom DeLay winning the nomination for his district. No question that will pan out better for Democrats in the long run. Now if only Katherine Harris can postpone her downfall until after the primary...
Adam |
03.07.06 - 9:47 pm | #
There are a lot of em that it will be good to get locked in. Harris is certainly one- DeWine another- and Burns in Montana..
They've got a lot of downside risk..
Don't know if any of em can be replaced at the last minute when the indictments come.
rwcole |
03.07.06 - 9:49 pm | #
Numbers aren't changin- guess I'll hit the hay.
rwcole |
03.07.06 - 9:49 pm | #
Well there ya are- primaries- pretty rare for an incumbent to lose a primary- and hang onta yer hats- we've got 49 more of these suckers ta go.
rwcole | 03.07.06 - 9:39 pm |
It was a long shot from the get go. Weird district. No Republican running and a DINO incumbent. I give up, on that race anyway. No big deal in the grand scheme of things.
Cozumel |
Homepage |
03.07.06 - 9:51 pm | #
Ok, last post before bed:
Jeralyn has some super analysis of what Team Libby is up to, based on their latest filing:
I'd also like to point out that we started targeting Cuellar after the State of the Union - which was a couple months ago?
Conservatives fought for years to advance their agenda. Yes, they had Sciafe, Murdoch and Moonie money backing them - but the takeover of our government, the compromise of the MSM - that took years. The liberal netroots movement is only just getting started. It's going to take time. Fortunately, the rest of America is finally waking up to Bush's incompetence. But a victory for a true dem in the belly of the reddest state? Probably take more than a couple of months. This is a state that gave Delay 64% of the vote, after all ...
narexbyrnes |
03.07.06 - 9:58 pm | #
If they fail at fraud I am sure all sorts of people are trying to cover it up.
Then again maybe not...see stealing elections is not a Republican or Democrat problem - its a problem for everyone.
gleex |
03.07.06 - 10:01 pm | #
new thread: "Late night, ....Heroes"
John Casper |
03.07.06 - 10:08 pm | #
This is a state that gave Delay 64% of the vote, after all ...
narexbyrnes | 03.07.06 - 9:58 pm | #
Very true. I'm guessing this was a relatively LOW turnout. And take the remaining 36% (Republican) vote not voting for DeLay and add that to the what will be the Democrats and Independents voting in November....
Sprinkle that with some Abramoff (the gift that keeps on giviing)....
Cozumel |
Homepage |
03.07.06 - 10:11 pm | #
Jeebus, the Republicans stole another election?
Wow! Who could have possibly anticipated that result?
Look folks, at this point it should be as clear as the balls on a tall dog that despite all our good intentions. our money, and our votes, we are not going to win elections fairly in a system which is demonstrably fixed.
The ONLY way we get back to something even approximating a democracy is for that aforementioned tall dog to stand up on his hind legs and display some balls by challenging, both legally and in the media, each and every election in this country where there is even the hint of impropriety.
Of course, that would require a testicle implant for many of our so-called leaders in the "Democratic" Party.
Lacking that remote possibility, I would suggest that from now on 10-15-20 % of every dollar that we contribute to candidates through websites like FDL, Kos, Atrios, etc., be set aside in a legal fund to finance challenges for our candidates.
Yea, a bit of a shame but Liberman is gonna have a cakewalk in his primary.
Seems almost as if putting a fight against somewhere else could be more fruitful
I can see a show of force against him, or call him on some stuff. But there must be some Congressional race out there that might be that last race to deliver the house.
Maybe not, I know people don't like to compromise but I gotta think that Republicans are out there trying to tilt the blance in Dem primary races to try and set up the candidate they want to run against. So the game is a little bit more shennanigans.
I think Joe is a joke and Joementum and all that. What a tool. To bad Gore picked him as VP, a double snooze fest. Now Joe has gone to the dark side, and Gore comes up a bit but to late. The Republicans were pumped for 2008, the Dems were in coast mode. I think the Repubs even floated the not much of a difference, its no big deal between the party thing that the media was all over - since their base was pumped that they were getting giant elephants that were going to do what the base thought they would do. I am speaking here of the average vote/might vote person. It took me about 2 seconds to sniff out Bush as a liar.
See Clinton had his lies (if it was Bush he would just classify his dick - thats from Jon Stewart I think) or two, and much spin. But he remained popular and navigated being POTUS during the info age. Bush the fool did not take the info age seriously and that is his downfall in history (assuming we make it through the next few years and the downfall is not any more explicit and immediate than it is). They really believe they can "write" reality, or at the very least "history of the victor" and to some degree they can. But when you have every lie exposed online, and you have every speech taped, and this huge record (and hopefully Fitz will walk out of there with a copy of their servers and files someday so they can be tried properly)- but when you have all that info and the POTUS has been such a lying, incompetent, criminal, loser and pretzel choker, and disaster capitalist, and Orwellian freak...then you are not going to skate into a legacy.
Bush is not going to have the number of people pushing his re-written history that Regean has had. He will have some 20% or so, but that is not enough. He is going to have a nod for getting his SCOTUS in there (from his base, we may well see the most activist court in a long time), and all else will be negative.
He (and his family and friends) will also be the majority part of the line of losers that morphed the end of the Cold War into the "War on Drugs", that lead to tons of money (for business and private and mini wars), death, crime, and misery and worst of all to the "War on Terror", and if we are unlucky enough he will play his guitar while New Orleans drowns and not stop until we have the "Resource Wars" that are spawned from screwing the Earth into a positive feedback loop that takes out our atmosphere. I mean at least try to stop it, or throw a few 100 billion at the energy sciences and education.
gleex |
03.07.06 - 10:34 pm | #
Typo (one of many I am sure), Republicans were pumped for 2000.
gleex |
03.07.06 - 10:36 pm | #
U.S. House District 28 - Dem Primary
Henry Cuellar (i) Dem 18,315 48%
Ciro Rodriguez Dem 17,268 45%
Victor Morales Dem 2,563 7%
239 of 276 precincts reporting (87%)
Prof |
03.08.06 - 1:10 am | #
The reason that Cuellar will win, despite the numbers above is that Cuellar's strength is in Webb County, and votes there are not yet reported fully. This suggests that Cuellar will win.
U. S. Representative District 28
Henry Cuellar - Incumbent 8,145 86.75% 8,145 86.75%
Victor Morales 454 4.83% 454 4.83%
Ciro D. Rodriguez 789 8.40% 789 8.40%
----------- -----------
Total Votes Cast 9,388 9,388
Precincts Reported 0 of 30 Precincts 0.00%
average citizens have not risen up to demand that these abuses come to an end
And what can the "average citizen" do?
Write letters to their congressional reps (who end up voting for the Patriot Act)? Go to a demonstration (and have it ignored by the newspapers)?
We need pitchforks and torches. (Home Depot probaby won't contribute).
It's hard out here for an "average citizen."
LizDexic |
03.08.06 - 8:41 am | #
