Robert Novak had a great piece in the Washington Post today about this (well, at least about the problems Democrats seem to be having in the current political environment, which should favour them). He attributes the Democrats' problems to a poor choice in leadership, giving Nancy Pelosi's election as House Minority Leader over Steny Hoyer as an example. In fact, the article centers around "the Nancy problem," as many Democrats in the House have come to call it, and how Democrats are growing increasingly dissatisfied with her leadership. In short, as Republicans are plagued by scandals, Democrats seem to be having problems gaining ground in the House and also with the electorate.
Unfortunately, I can't find a link to the piece on the Post's website. I'll keep looking.
To speak frankly, I think our problems are deeper than Pelosi (though she is included). Reid has done better in the Senate, but isn't an incredibly powerful or vocal force. Dean - well....he's Dean. He's overy vocal at times, but has yet to open his mouth quite wide enough to insert his foot as needed.
I pretty much agree with Ryan's 2006 analysis, though I think the situation in Iraq is a bit more complex than that. I hope and pray for continued progess, but if that doesn't happen, it will hurt Bush, his fellow Republicans, and even Democrats who stick with him.
If there is progress, the question then becomes whether the Midterm elections will center around national, international, or even local (campaign by campaign) issues. Should be an interesting cycle, and I'm sure the rest of the political junkies are as glad to be in an election year again as I am.
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