DANGER: Correlation does not equal causation. Other factors also at play.
Just out of curiousity, what other factors were at play?
Years of pressure from the international community, including the recent addition of our ally France, a vested interest on behalf of Iran in the present Iraq situation, and I suspect back door negotiations on this issue that we will not hear about for several years. That's assuming our intelligence agencies are getting this right in the first place. Since they missed "Bin Laden determined to strike within the United States" as a clue, I have my doubts.
Mike,
Then why would Iran not tell anybody if they are bowing to international pressure? Like "Hey guys, we're stopping...you can stop obsessing now." It seems like they are gunshy about telling people this.
Second, this intelligence case is much different than the pre-9/11 case about bin Laden because we are actively watching Iran...these reports aren't from random memos washing across desks.
We were activly watching Iraq as well and were dead wrong about what we thought was going on.
Iran has been saying for quite some time that they were not developing nuclear weapons. We just didn't believe them. Moreover, they also have a vested interested in keeping their own people afraid of their government and its power and probably wanted the deterrance from surrounding nations occupied by US troops.
John Bolton's Washington Post article on this subject is very good - check it out if you get time.
Commenting by HaloScan
