Independence
Hi Stuart, and welcome back.
It would be nice to think that the SNP could snatch Livingston, but let's not get ahead of ourselves. Labour's likely candidate is Jim Devine of STUC reknown - not a great thinker or orator by any means, but a relatively safe pair of hands and unlikely to stray far from the party line.
The SNP have to find a top-drawer candidate/polemicist (does anyone have Jim Sillars' phone number? 
), and even then they will have to contend with the venom that will spew forth from the Daily Record and the usual disinformation and obfuscation from our other "domestic" media outlets. Couple that with the inevitable hagiography of the previous incumbent and the sympathy play to the gallery.
This isn't about selecting the party's favoured candidate. This is about selecting someone who will bash their way to a by-election win. Which isn't the same thing as cross-party consensus at all.
I think this one may be more Monklands '94 instead of Govan '88. I sincerely hope not. If the party snatch this one then with an inspirational candidate then it truly will be Game On 2007.
Thank you for the welcome. I'm still not in 100% blogging mode again yet, but I'm sure it'll come.
I didn't say the SNP would win it - that is for the electorate of Livingston to determine. But I do think that it will be tight.
A re-run of Monklands is highly unlikely. I really do not think that Labour eleven years on are not quite the same "win-at-ALL-costs" party. At least, I sincerely hope that they are not - that was the dirtiest campaign I have every witnessed - breath-takingly scummy behaviour from the Labourites. They have got shot of the worst types of smear-campaign offenders - no names mentioned, but it doesn't take much guessing (which prominent Scottish Labour figures from 1994 are no longer there in 2005?)
I have to say Stuart, that I think they are every bit as bad. Some of the more amoral rottweillers may have departed for other shores, such as Australia. Or have taken to the lecture circuit in the USA, post-Nato. Or may have taken to erecting windmills as oppopsed to tilting at them. But they are still every bit as intent upon keeping their cosy Russian Mafia Cabal in as many seats of power in the central belt as possible.
Their campaign is going to become increasingly appalling in direct corollation to how badly they show in opinion polls.
Given the by-election win in Falkirk I think we will at least run them close, but perhaps no more, once every dirty trick has been exhausted.
If the party win this, given those circumstances, I would confidently suggest that Labour will not be a part of the next Holyrood Executive.
I don't know much about Scottish politics, but surely a few council seat upsets aren't too much to shout about?
By the way I found your blog through a comment you made on politicalbetting.com. Keep up the good work!
By the way I'm a Lib Dem (not a member, but a v.keen supporter), but sadly I don't think we can win the by-election, although you never know. Is there a date for it yet?
Not as far as I kow Tom.
Quite right re. council seats - you would need a far, far bigger sample than 6 wards in 8 months to draw any conclusions. Even in England, where they have far more by-elections, the aggregate stats are reputedly quite a poor predictive tool. The Scottish stats are even less useful due to more parties and Ind candidates - plus not every party stands in every by-election, although the SNP seems to have by far the best record in terms of actually putting a candidate up (your LibDems have a very patchy record - perhaps wisely conserving cash in "no-hope" wards).
However, what I will say is that as an SNP supporter I would far rather have our vote going UP 27% in an election than DOWN 27%! Keeps the morale up you know.
You never know, after the next Holyrood GE the SNP and LDs (and Greens?) may form a coalition govt... and they may have discovered a new breed of avian Porkus in Guinea!
The by-election will probably be held in late October. I think there's some sort of law about Parliament having to approve it first and what with our MPs sunning themselves until October 10th that's not going to happen for a while.
The unofficial campaign will I'm sure already be kicking off.
I'm afraid that I can't see the SNP putting up too much of a fight up here. It's a fairly safe Lab seat and the SNP will want (presumably) to save as much cash as they can until 2007.
I think Alex is being a bit harsh on Jim Devine. By no stretch of the imagination is he not clever,and the local party will probably want to pick someone in Robin Cook's mold (or is it spelled mould, hmm), who's not too loyal and dependent on party line.
- "I'm afraid that I can't see the SNP putting up too much of a fight up here."
I disagree. I am struggling to think of a parliamentary by-election where the SNP did NOT "put up a fight" - even in seats where they were in 3rd or 4th place at the start (Ayr and Aberdeen South spring to mind). It is just the way the SNP is.
In fact, if you look at its very impressive performances in parliamentary by-elections from the past 40 years the SNP replaces the LibDems as the masters of the art of by-elections north of the border.
Even in seats we don't win, we make Labour sweat, eg Hamilton South and Monklands East. The victories are waymarkers in Scottish political history - Motherwell, Hamilton, Govan #1, Govan #2, Perth, North East Scotland Euro... Livingston?
(I think that its "mould".)
Andy
I never said Devine wasn't clever. Just not a great thinker. It's one thing being a savvy trade unionist operator, another thing altogether when you have to impress the public in the glare of the media. The previous incumbent was an ugly bugger, but he had charm aplenty.
I would also have to agree with Stuart re: any potential SNP effort. Any stops that can be pulled out will be - it's just the way of the party. And if you think Livingston's a safe Labour seat, what about Govan in '88?
Also, a large portion of the Labour vote in Livingston must have owed a lot to a personal vote for Robin Cook. That will dissolve - Greens, Lib Dems and even Tories will have their minds concentrated on giving Tony Blair and co a bloody nose.
The more I think about it, the more I think it's winnable. There are 2 obstacles: The quality/rumbustiousness of the SNP's candidate and the full plethora of dirty tricks in Scottish Labour's armoury. Don't forget that the General Secretary of the Scottish Labour Party during their nadir of dirty campaigning in the 90s was one Jack McConnell. Although, I hear he doesn't carry much sway these days... 
'the collapse of the Scottish Socialist Party'
Would only need Tommy to get out of the dungeon to get them back on the road. As for the Tories, yeah after many false dawns the real end is in sight.
Dear Stuart, may I have one big question ? First I must to say that I am a teacher in Poland and I teach English but also I have classes of History of the Brittish Islands. This year , in the second semester I will talk about nowadays and the politics. Can you explain and tell me what kind of political parties are in Scotland and everything you think could be important for young Poles to know about Scotland and law etc.?
I would be really happy !!!!
Greetings from rainy Poland !
Martha
Hi Martha,
I have actually drafted a new blog post in response to your comments in the Shoutbox, but I have not quite polished it up yet. I'll publish it soon.
As time and space are limited - and I could happily spend days responding to your request - may I please refer you to the Polish-language and the English-language editions of Wikipedia:
http://wikipedia.org/
They have excellent introductions to many Scottish topics, with some very useful links to other websites at the bottom of each entry. As a start, have a look at the following pages:
http://pl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wymysojer
http://pl.wikipedia.org/wiki/J%C...4%
99zyk_szkocki
http://pl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Szkocja
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scotland
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/
Sco...tish_Parliament
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/
Sco...cottish_English
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sco.../
Scots_language
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/
Sco...Scottish_Gaelic
I myself occasionally contribute to the English, German, Norwegian, Danish, Italian, Castillian, Dutch, Swedish, Scots and French editions of Wikipedia, but I have noticed a wee ommission in one of those Polish language pages, so I may have to start brushing up on my Polish! If you see any obvious mistakes or ommissions while researching your project, please amend the Polish language edition of Wikipedia yourself - it is very easy.
I could also mention that I myself published a blog post in March 05 called "Scotland Welcomes Central Europeans":
http://scottish-independence.blo...-
europeans.html
... which contains these wonderful links on Scots-Polish interaction!
http://www.cualann-scottish-book.../books/
lion.htm
http://www.electricscotland.com/...nd/
scotsndx.htm
http://archiver.rootsweb.com/th/...0-07/
0962801783
http://www.genealogical.com/item...=9365&
afid=1000
http://www.paisley.ac.uk/busines...oads/
cceseu.pdf
http://www.electricscotland.com/...ussia/
index.htm
Happy surfing!
The very brief answer to your Shoutbox question "Where can I learn Scottish?" is this distance-learning pack:
http://www.amazon.com/exec/obido...725710?
v=glance
Thanks a lot Stuart !
That's really nice of you to give me so many links !!!!
Thanks again and greetings from sunny Poland for You and for bonnie Scotland !
Very interesting blog. I don't think that whettener is a real word....
I don't know... I can think of one or two things that have been whettening.
Given Devine has been done for drunk driving and had several affairs, do you think Labour really thought about his selection? Why have the SNP not picked someone with a higher profile? There are several (oops!) candidates looking for seats.
But if the Glorious Leader is stuck down South and the Deputy leader (Head of the Scottish Branch) can't get elected in a straight vote but has to rely on the list system I don't believe there is potential for any breakthrough at all, especially given your results at the election.
Of course, as always Stuart, should you win the humble pie with BBQ sauce will be on my plate under the glengarry! But I honestly don't think so this time. Best of luck thought!
PS Any thoughts on who might parachute into Moray after Maggie Ewing? Please don't say Nicola S! Please!
The obvious person to stand in Moray would be Annabelle Ewing, in my humble opinion. She narrowly lost out on her Westminster seat and shares the surname with Margaret. Name recognition can be a huge factor.
I heard that Alex Salmond would go for Banff & Buchan in the Scottish Parliamentary elections and current snp incumbent Stuart Stevenson would contest Moray.
Apparently Stevenson has just bought a new house on the border of Moray and Banff & Buchan.
Of course all of this could be completely false.
Interesting, but you are really scratching around to come up with some sort of message to give the electorate. We've had a few laughs over SNP "statistics" already.
Nazi Aryan superrace Apocalypse positioning may be how the gods use the NewRomanEmpire to position revenge for 5th century invasion of Rome
They said HW was a "traitor", evident with the airplane incident during WorldWarII. As we witnessed repeatedly in the 20th century, these incidents ocurr to establish a legacy and pave the way for a far more significant events in the future::::
If true this legacy would recurr in W's administration::::
Rebate checks on the way into and out of office are both bad signs.
Signing on to Iraq to eliminate Saddam and 4,000 Americans is another clue.
Don't be surprised if they have him sabotage some things on his way out, and since McCain is good it will (has) happen(ed) one way or the other::::
The whole economy issue came out of nowhere in February 2008. Consistant with the god's methodology, expect justification was utilized::::::
Of course the crashing dollar of the last few years has comeplled OPEC to value oil with the Euro instead of the dollar.
Don't forget:::The Reagan administration was charecterized with banking scandal too.
Sounding like a goddamn blooming idiot when he speaks is a clue unlike any others. When Reagan spoke it sounded as if he "fuddled", a clue not to trust him.
"They're going to pay for 2004." Redneck states. And oh how they will pay:::
Recently they have stated that the Chinese are holding US paper. Some patriot W is, selling US debt to communists. Perhaps the invasion mentioned below will be a way to "redeem" these bonds after they've fallen into default.
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Like aging, sleep is behavior forced upon us.
News story on sleep research, a good example of how education is preditory, deceptive.
People aren't fresher or sharper because of good sleep. The gods control all this.
Actually, they've mentioned that people with favor don't have to sleep and, like aging, sleep is behavior forced upon us.
This is today's research. Expect this applies to early research as well.
Incidentally, the gods create male superiority in the fields of computers, science and math for preditory reason.
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Search "finalprophet" and the Man in the Moon paragraph to find my sound file web site.
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There is one geographic clue I have not addressed in years:::Uranus, a planet tilted 90 degrees on its axis. I have stated in years past that I think this is yet another geographic clue offered by the gods, this one suggesting the fate of planet Earth, that tectonic plate subduction would be the method of disposal:::Earth’s axis will shift breaking continental plates free and initiating mass subduction.
Undesirables will either perish in the government marijuana erradication program
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