another great post. i have been thinking for the past few days that it would be really neat if someone actually tracked the rivals100 to add some perspective to recruiting. thanks for getting it together.
Honestly, I really do love this blog. Justin Zwick...Busterrific - hilarious
Great post Brian, although I wish the scale would not reflect Gabe as a 4/5...Perhaps we need to bust out the .5's?
Secondly, what if a player is ranked low but overperforms? Is that considered a good call by Rivals, or do they lose points for not projecting him higher?
this would extend your project immensely, but i too would like to see what happened with the low 4 star/3 star sorts.
On Morris: "...Academics forced a transfer from OSU to NC State.."
Hmm... class, what does this tell us about NC State?
Brian:
I think this is outstanding. Rivals has done a much better job than I would have expected. One nit I have is that I think DeShawn Wynn deserves a 3. He has 22 career TDs and was the 2nd highest offensive contributor (in total yards) on a good Florida team. I watch almost as much UF football as UM (my wife is a Gator), and he is undoubtedly a significant part of their offense, even if he hasn't played well/often enough to garner conference accolades. I think he personifies "average starter."
http://www.gatorzone.com/footbal...m&
bio=wynn.html
TB
Well done. Wondering if you just took a stab at the 3.5% rating for getting an above-average starter or if that is taken from another study.
Wonderful stuff. I always forget how highly rated Parham was, particularly since he was always thought to be "in Ahmad Brooks' shadow." And it was certainly easier to be in Brooks' shadow in 2005, seeing as how he weighed 450 lbs. or something.
I think Parham will be fine on the Cowboys, but his combine numbers made it look like he had Michigan's S & C coach.
Gittleson is ours, Ian. Don't make us nervous by insinuating he's been working with anyone else. The Fort is not open to the public because championship-winning secrets are kept there.
And you can take Brandon Saine off the recruiting board.
Ufe,
I don't think he means that there's a 3/5% chance of a random player being an above average starter. I think he means that the average score for the 50 recruits above (on that 1 to 5 scale) was 3.5/5.
Yes, upon the second reading that what he's saying alright. Like to know how that 63% rate is compared to lower rated top 200-500 guys. Have to believe it's much higher.
Amen, Brian.
I never looked at top 100 lists, but a long time ago (maybe even as a blog entry) I posted something sort of like this for everyone at Michigan. Consistent truth that the higher rated recruits, ON AVERAGE, contribute more and contribute earlier.
Recruiting ratings aren't a perfect predictor, but to say they are meaningless is at best a semantic game. There is correlation.
Fantastic post. Keep up the good work
Marshall Jones and JR Hemmingway video's on Sunshineprep.net.
What are your plans, Brian? Comparing Scout and Rivals would be very interesting. Maybe Lemming too, although if Lemming came out ahead it would take away from all the (warning: Lemming) Lemming jokes.
Comments:
23 - Marquis Johnson. I recall how much I really, really wanted this guy. I mean, he was only a year behind a stupid 2* legacy recruit we took named Braylon. I guess that turned out alright.
29 - D'Andrea. Another guy we lost who caused me to be grumpy for a day. Largely, another failure, althugh he might turn out to be alright this year.
30 - Banks. Oh what might have been. He was electric at WR his freshman year. And then he did enough that even Fat Phil couldn't ignore it.
38 - Pickryl - Still the best prospect to ever come out of Jenks HS in Oklahoma. I recall we got burned by both him and Travis Leitko at DE that year. I still wonder what "Pick" could have done without the injury bug. (And yes, I did recall off the top of my head where he went to HS. It's because I am a recruitnik.)
Keep up the good work.
Just a thought - I'd be curious to see how this type of thing breaks down by position. Are they much better at tagging star Running Backs than, say, OLs and TEs?
Although I think you were a touch too hard on the OSU guys (D'Andrea ripped his knee to shreds and Zwick is pretty solid overall - just behind a better QB), this is still a great report.
Excellent stuff, Brian.
Ever thought of working for any of the major sports new servies? ESPN, SI, Rivals, Scout, etc.?
I agree with Kieth on Zwick. He'd be a solid starter at any middle-of-the-pack B10 school. He performed very well in the Alamo Bowl, and against Miami last year. I think a 3 is more appropriate.
Could you have made any more excuses for players that did not pan out? I understand some had extenuating circumstances, but given your approach, it was pretty hard to fail.
Devin Hester, Reggie McNeal were supposed to set the world on fire. I don't care if McNeal was great in terms of aTm standards, he wasn't the 5th rated recruit who might go to aTm.
This rules.
Very interesting stuff. Thanks.
dumb question . . . what does TKE stand for?
TKE = Total Knucklehead Exemption. See Marcus Vick at #8.
Brian, Kedric Goldston from UGA is an interesting kid. After his SR year of HS (yet before signing day) he was in a massive car accident in which his Chevy Tahoe was destroyed. He was thrown from the vehicle and the truck ROLLED OVER ON HIM and broke his femur.
A steel rod was placed in his leg. Because he is a bad ass who doesn't acknowledge the concept of pain, he played his True Freshman year anyway. Due to suspensions he even started his first game.
Unfortunately, the pin in his leg developed sort of a bone spur like condition around the pin. Essentially small razor blade sized bone spurs were digging into his thigh. So he had to have the pin removed.
So he did. And played his Soph year anyway.
Then in his JR year, he was body slammed by a teammate during practice and broke his shoulder blade. (Who ever even heard of such a thing?) And played a few weeks later anyway.
Then he dislocated his elbow his SR year and played through it.
Given all his injuries he had a HUGE career.
Thanks for the mention. Great site!
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