Woot! Live blog!
Over/under on "must win" usage by Hubie Brown tonight?
I've got a good feeling about tonight, though. Pistons win it by 10.
And yeah, Matt of SMQ is just terrific.
One last thing: I hadn't thought about it until you wrote it, though - some of my favorite bloggers are some of my favorite writers, period. Craziness. You among them, Brian. Keep it up.
PB
ND fans seem to have the most optimism because of their losses. First, they barely lost to almighty USC, the greatest team ever, as anointed by ESPN, until they of course lost to Texas. And second, they were within one third down conversion of getting a chance to tie the game against the almighty Buckeyes, who were also among the elite teams of 2005. I assume they all believe that losing to MSU was some sort of aberration that can't be explained.
Anyway, if I was to take optimism over Michigan's losses this year, I'd be looking forward to a Michigan MNC next year - Michigan barely lost to everybody, in the same, unbelievable, amazing fashion, and when they didn't lose right at the end, they lost by making some of the most idiotic offensive mistakes ever against ND.
ND didn't beat a single good team last year (yes, I'm admitting that Michigan was not good last year), and I believe to be a national title contender or favorite, you need to have at least one quality win in the previous year.
I guess I'll add a dumb comment, but I too remember that Quinn couldn't complete a pass over 5 yards against Michigan last year. I thought his play alone kept Michigan in the game despite that unmentionable performace by the Maize and Blue in the Red Zone (and Breaston not being able to catch a bomb).
Forgive me, but I was bored. To kill some time, I looked up the play by play for the ND - UM game last year. Contrary to Pacer_Dave's memory, Quinn actually completed 11 of his 19 passes for greater than 5 yards. And this doesn't even include the two completions for exactly five yards. Detail below:
N 1-10 N24 QUINN, B. pass complete to STOVALL for 6 yards to the UND30 (Burgess, P.).
N 2-10 N49 QUINN, B. pass complete to McKNIGHT for 13 yards to the MICH38, 1ST DOWN
UND (Graham, Chris;Englemon, B.).
N 1-10 M27 QUINN, B. pass complete to STOVALL for 11 yards to the MICH16, 1ST DOWN
UND (Mason, Grant).
N 1-10 M16 QUINN, B. pass complete to WALKER for 9 yards to the MICH7 (Mason, Grant).
N 2-6 N26 QUINN, B. pass complete to FASANO for 8 yards to the UND34, 1ST DOWN
UND (Mason, Grant).
N 2-6 N27 QUINN, B. pass complete to WALKER for 6 yards to the UND33, 1ST DOWN
UND (Harris, David).
N 3-16 N14 QUINN, B. pass complete to SAMARDZIJA for 17 yards to the UND31, 1ST DOWN
UND.
N 2-6 N32 QUINN, B. pass complete to FASANO for 7 yards to the UND39, 1ST DOWN
UND (Englemon, B.;Mason, Grant).
N 3-7 N42 QUINN, B. pass complete to FASANO for 9 yards to the MICH49, 1ST DOWN
UND (Graham, Chris).
N 3-10 N23 QUINN, B. pass complete to SAMARDZIJA for 26 yards to the UND49, 1ST DOWN
UND (Barringer, W.).
N 1-10 N05 QUINN, B. pass complete to POWERS-NEAL for 9 yards to the UND14 (Harris,
David;Mason, Grant).
Michigan's performance sucked, as did ND's. And you know what, we don't necessarily believe in "quality losses". THERE'S NO SUCH THING.
We accomplished a lot with talent from the Davieham era. That's what the optimism is about. Just imagine if we had the "talent" that Michigan has! I'm beginning to imagine it with what Charlie is accomplishing on his current recruiting jaunt.
Powdermonkey
In my defense...
Notre Dame scripted the 1st drive, so I exempt those passes from my claim because Notre Dame moved the ball like they were playing a middle school team against Michigan.
Passes for 6, 13, 11, 9, 5
He completed passes of 5 yards or greater after that drive by this count...
1st quarter = 2 (8,6 yards)
2nd quarter = 4 (17, 7, 9, 5 yards)
1 after a sack for a huge loss (17 yards)
3 on a scoring drive, probably set up by Walker's dominance during the drive
3rd Quarter = 1 (26 yards)
1 after a sack for a huge loss
4th Quarter = 1 (9 yards) after a failed Michigan 4th and goal
You read the boxscore, it was equally unimpressive for each team and each quarterback (I didn't look at Henne) in detail. I was just agreeing with Brian that Quinn struggled against a mediocre pass defense; as I recall from watching the game he missed several open receivers 5 yards + down the field.
Statistically this means nothing, it was my own personal assessment that both quaterbacks were pretty weak last season. I'm sure someone could find the rank of the pass defenses that Quinn faced, I may do that if I find the numbers.
Opponent Pass Defense Rank
Pitt 2 (wtf?)
Michigan 42
MSU 85
Washington 106
Purdue 111
USC 73
BYU 104
Tenn. 54
Navy 66
Syracuse 21
Stanford 110
Ohio State 43
I encourage you to look at the schedule of Pitt, USC, Navy, and Syracuse to put those rankings in perspective. Perhaps these defenses are statistically overrated either in lieu of
1) strenghth of opponent - I believe Pac-10 and Big East were rated fairly weak by the BCS (Navy's schedule needs no statistical justification)
or
2) opponents that focus primarily on the run - West Virginia in the Big East is #4 in rushing offense
Quinn certainly has the size and arm strength (I mean does he have some guns or what?), but, like Henne, those don't mean a whole lot if you don't know how to utilize them correctly -- I would question taking him #1 overall in the next draft.
why do you suppose UFR exists?
and i quote:
"The stats (like 230 yards allowed) are too kind. Michigan was often bailed out by Brady Quinn and The Hilarious Attempts To Throw Downfield and in the fourth quarter the ND offense, nursing a persistent two-touchdown lead, was largely content to run-run-inc-punt. But 230 yards is 230 yards; this was a decidedly better performance than against NIU. The zone seemed to work well. There were many instances where he couldn't find anyone downfield. The blitzes Michigan sent were consistently effective."
please note the sequence of capitalized words where, usually, one might not expect capitalization.
essentially I was a moron and didn't check the UFR and instead relied on my tattered memories of the game. I'm glad a few agree with me on the play of Quinn. That being said, he still has one more year to show what he's got.
I agree with you Pacer_Dave in that Quinn and Henne were both mediocre in the game, especially since the defensive secondaries were not very good.
The end-of-season rankings you provided are pretty interesting, but we should look at how teams ranked "going into the game" vs. end of season to get a real feel as to how the defense really ranked. I have a feeling that some of the low rankings on pass defense are due to the fact that ND hung 300/400+ yards on them.
Anyway, if the rankings still look the same after that analysis, my response would be that Charlie took what he could get. If the pass was the route to go, he took it. If the run was the route to go, we tried to take it. I for one, am excited that we now have a coach. After waiting 10 years for someone to show the kids how to win, as opposed to being afraid to lose, I am now feeling like a fan again.
Listen, I know Quinn "ain't all that" and Charlie will definitely make mistakes along the way. But, it's now fun to be an ND fan again. If Quinn is in the running to win the Heisman, Great! If not, who cares as long as we keep winning.
Our schedule for 2006 is probably too tough to go undefeated. But, I look forward to some fun games this year; UM, PSU, USC. And nothing's better that pasting Purdue and Tiller's basketball on grass. Looking forward to seeing you in the House that Rock Built.
What!?!?! We talk football on this site, too? Whoa. ;)
So you know, Brian... I'm one Game 7 win away from REALLY, REALLY wishing Jack Johnson had made that jump. Just for you. *laugh*
Does Michigan actualy think they can beat ND, PSU, and OSU on the road this year. Be positive UM, another four loss season could mean the end of Carr
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