Great preview. The only gripe I have is that your kind of bias with the OSU-Iowa game. Errrrr Pennstate lost like 20 something seniors who all contributed last year and will be starting d-line-secondary-oline-qb that are all cutting new teeth. How is this gonna be a grudge match for OSU when history in the series shows that the team that lost the most usually loses the following year in the series....Plus they lost two outstanding linebackers no way they get a three.....
Toss up should of been OSU, Minnesota as well
Did you really just dare to question the excellence of Penn State?
Rookie mistake. Be prepared for 50 poorly typed, angry emails.
"Iowa's charmed 2004, which was full of fortituous bounces on turnovers of all kinds."
To what are you referring?
I remember Iowa pulling out three games by 2 points in 2004, but I don't remember any of their wins coming on fortuitous bounces or anything like that, save the miracle at the Capital One Bowl against LSU.
What I really remember about that team were the poundings they gave to Ohio State and Wisconsin.
You give too little credit in 2004, and probably too much in 2006.
I think I'd make OSU a toss-up. Yes, OSU has a young D, but Iowa has some defensive holes as well, and you've got to figure OSU's D has more total talent. But otherwise, looks about right. That's a great schedule.
volpundit:
Iowa had a crazy, outlier-ish turnover margin in '04. Perhaps few of them were of the last-play-of-game variety, but as a whole, they contributed to Iowa's success that year.
I'd third the OSU game as a toss-up. Despite concerns on D, OSU's offense should be solid from the start.
I agree with Iowa State as a probable win - on paper. But we all thought the same thing last year, and Iowa ended up getting embarrassed (23-3). In fact, the Cyclones have won 6 of their last 8 against the Hawkeyes. I get the feeling that this matchup means a lot more to ISU than it does to Iowa. The ESPN Blue Ribbon report on ISU (apparently the Worldwide Leader does still do some actual analysis, or at least hires someone else to do it) suggests that winning this game has major implications for ISU on the recruiting circuit. So while this is a game that Iowa "should" win, I wouldn't put money on it.
And along with previous commenters, I'll agree with the OSU game as a toss-up.
penn state will b up 4 hte osu game we will win bcause joepa is grater than all other coches in hiztory includyng tre$$le. son of kal el u r an idyut. if we loze to osu it is becuz refs will cheat us liek they alwyas do against michgan.
Sorry. I couldn't resist after Maize's comment.
If Iowa goes 11-1, I will pay whatever fees you pay to keep this website online fopr the entire 2008 season and you can hold me to that standard. I'll let maize and brew dave be the reminder of that promise!! No way they beat OSU. 2004 was the anamoly in the series. Schedule is favorable but their defense is going to be weak. Wisconsin gets them as well as Michigan.
well, byron, this site runs on a very, very expensive adamantium server with diamond RAM and a fairy dust hard drive. Just FYI.
Jor-El... Minnesota? Seriously?
Why is Penn State getting knocked on a preview about Iowa? We're not even on their schedule for Chrissakes. You guys are hilarious. I'll bite my tongue.
Between their WRs and their star LBs, Iowa lost a ton of talent. I think you are a bit optimisitc that they can replace them all.
Remember when you said we would be alright without Jake Long on the OLine? Similarly, I doubt Iowa will be alirght without their LBs and WRs.
I dont doubt that they have talent ready to fill in, but it's unlikely they win more than 9. Just my two cents.
I don't think they have a 50% chance against either of the big two and they'll probably lose to Wisconsin too. Even the Zookies will score points on Iowa this year.
The game is at Minnesota and thhe gophers (snickers because its better than Beavers) return all the skill talent except at TB but Phinnix looked pretty solid last year. The D is slighly improved and I just don't think that Iowa with a poor secondary and new lbs are gonna be able to deal with the balance and the running game. My two cents and a bag of Chips Ahoy...........
(replied in wrong thread)
"Show me your Taties"...why can't I get the image of Charlie Weis saying that in a Fat Bastard Voice out of my head when I read your title?
Anon 11:08
Thanks. Now I have to try and sleep after that.
Brian,
Some Iowans don't even think Tate is the second-best QB in the state. He's not THAT good. He's a headcase.
Tate is a man-child full of terrifying awesome. Do not disrespect his powers, for he is willing to utilize them for both good and evil. Beware.
http://i46.photobucket.com/album...ntitled-1-
1.jpg
Well done lad. Best preview on Iowa that I have EVER read.
Good karma will hopefully shine this year on Iowa again after a disasterous year in 05. I know Iowa would pay for the Capital One Bowl! I expect Iowa to be 4-0 for the game against OSU. Kinnick will be a very scary place.
This seems to be a well thought out, well written, in depth preview. What is it doing on the internet?
Iowa could have been 10-2/9-3 with a few better bounces last year (Northwestern/Michigan/Florida games)
This is going to be the year that either Ferentz is shown to be a great coach, as everyone says he is, or is just an above average coach that can't finish and go to promise land.
Well done.
I'm a big Iowa fan and I see 9-3.
I expect Iowa to lose one out of the pool of Iowa State, Syracuse and Illinois (ISU plays over their head against Iowa and Iowa struggles on the road)
One of the Big 2 games - most likely in Ann Arbor.
And one against the pool of Minnesota, Wisconsin and Purdue (although Wisky is the least likely since Iowa has owned them recently).
But I like your optimism and hope you're right!
"Some Iowans don't even think Tate is the second-best QB in the state."
Yeah, those Iowans are commonly referred to as "CyClowns" or "Clowns" for short (which seems even more fitting after the above poster's comment regarding Tate).
Good preview on Iowa, the writer obviously did his homework. My only comments would be regarding Iowa's CBs and linebackers.
Iowa fans (undoubtedly wearing their black and gold tinted glasses) aren't overly concerned with the linebacker position due to Norm Parker's comment that "Mike Humpal will make Iowa fan's forget Chad Greenway real quick." Also, Klickenborg and Gableman have made names for themselves with bone-jarring hits on special teams (similar to Greenway and Hodge before making their way into the starting lineup). Hodge and Greenway have made comments earlier this year that Iowa fans have nothing to worry about at LB in coming years...that the new guys should have no problem coming in and making big plays. Finally, nearly all the linebackers on the two deeps have had game experience at LB (e.g., Iowa experimented early last year with Greenway at DE and with some 3-4 sets before the defensive line started clicking). The linebacker situation this year should be different than the defensive line situation last year (where the two deeps on the D-line had under 10 career tackles combined going into the season).
With regard to the CBs, both guys have starting experience and played well in those roles (although Godfrey's starting experience was at safety). Godfrey was brought in as a CB and the coaching staff moved him to safety because they thought he'd be able to make a contribution there more quickly (with less depth at the safety position and one of those positions were up for grabs after Consindine left). Both Godfrey and Shada are over 6 feet tall (as opposed to AA and JJ who were in the 5'8"-5'10" range) and both are supposedly faster than AA and JJ (Godfrey is allegedly the fastest guy on the team). Although both may need some time to get their feet wet, Norm Parker did comment that he believes this year's CBs will be better than last year's...and Parker hasn't been one to blow smoke in the past. Also, Iowa's defense is set up in a manner that the CBs aren't necessarily alone on an island in their coverage. They will have safety help over the top and the LBs dropping back to help cut off passing lanes underneath (Greenway was particularly great at this) and a better pass rush from the front four this year should help as well.
Also, to the poster citing that Iowa has lost 6 of the last 8 to ISU, Iowa has won 2 of the last 3 (with 2 of the 3 games being playing @ ISU) and Iowa has won 17 of the last 23 (basically, not only has ISU won 6 of the last 8, but 6 of the last 23). 3 of ISU's 6 wins in the last 8 years came during the late Hayden-early Ferentz years when the team was rebuilding and had an overall record of 7-27 ('98-'00). I won't deny that I
"I expect Iowa to lose one out of the pool of Iowa State, Syracuse and Illinois (ISU plays over their head against Iowa and Iowa struggles on the road)"
I wouldn't say Iowa struggles on the road. More like average on the road (and Illinois and Syracuse are far from average). Iowa is 13-12 over the last 5 years (since KF rebuilt the Hawks). All losses were to respectable opponents (and I find it hard to put Illinois and Syracuse into the respectable opponent column after a combined 3 wins between the 2 teams last year). Here's the breakdown of road record by year and which teams Iowa lost too:
'01 (1-4) = losses to Purdue, MSU, Wisconsin and ISU
'02 (5-0) = no away losses
'03 (2-3) = losses to MSU, OSU and Purdue
'04 (3-2) = losses to ASU and Michigan
'05 (2-3) = losses to ISU, OSU and NW
As you can see, Iowa hasn't had any Illinois or Syracuse type losses in the last 5 years.
Regarding ISU, ISU lost a lot on defense this past year and the fact that ISU put up a billboard in Iowa's backyard proclaiming "It's a Cyclone State" with a picture of the ISU football team hoisting the Cy-Hawk trophy pretty much guarantees that ISU will be completely obliterated at Kinnick this fall (the billboard will remain up until the day before the game...I'm sure KF will bring the Iowa team past it prior to gameday).
"One of the Big 2 games - most likely in Ann Arbor."
If Iowa loses a game this year, it will be to one or both of Michigan and OSU (although Iowa catches OSU at the right time (in more ways that one...early in the season for a night game) and at the right place (Kinnick)).
"And one against the pool of Minnesota, Wisconsin and Purdue (although Wisky is the least likely since Iowa has owned them recently)."
Iowa is 5-0 against Minnesota in the last 5 years (2-0 on the road, where they play this year, and one of those years Iowa tore down the Minny goalposts...it's called Kinnick North for a reason).
Iowa is 4-1 against Wisconsin in the last 5 years (2-0 at home, where they play this year).
Iowa is 3-2 against Purdue in the last 5 years with both losses coming @ Purdue. The game is at Iowa this year.
Further, Iowa is 23-4 in October-November over the last 4 years compared to 13-4 in September (despite most of the tough games in the later months and the creme puffs early on). Basically, Iowa teams get tougher as the year goes on. It just so happens that Wisconsin and Minnesota are the last 2 games of the season (as they have been the last 4 years), and in the last 4 years, Iowa is a combined 8-0 against Wisconsin and Minnesota.
My prediction is that Iowa will finish somewhere between 12-0 and 10-2 with toss-up games against Michigan and OSU.
Very in depth and accurate analysis.It is obvious you have done your homework on the hawkeyes.Job well done!September is critical for the hawkeyes based on past years.There is a new found emphasis on STARTING strong and FINISHING strong.
Great preview. I wouldn't change a thing.
Great stuff and even better writing! TSN probably can't afford you. Go Hawks!
Very fair review. Only thing I will say that hasn't been said...Tate also had an awful showing at the US Army All-American game. If Christensen ends up performing as strongly at Iowa as Tate after such a poor USAAA game performance, I'll take that every day of the week and twice on Sunday. Go Hawks!
Props to the Hawkeye commenters above - you've provided a response almost as in-depth and insightful as Brian's original analysis, and without all the flaming that usually comes along with posting on another school's site.
DaHawk56, you're right about the Iowa-ISU record: 6 of 8 vs 6 of 23. We have this argument with Ohio State fans all the time, with each side claiming it must be superior because it has had a winning record against the other since conveniently chosen year 19xx. I guess it's all in how you quote the numbers. There are lies, there are damn lies, and then there are statistics...
I've generally found that the more positive the preview, the less flaming the replies. Purdue fans thought I was freakin' sliced bread last year.
yeah what are they going to get pissed at? a single loss? they aren't joey.
Brian, you might be the only person in michigan that I like. Good Work!
Go Hawks!
LOL Wisconsin gets Iowa....right!!!
Iowa will not lose to Wisconsin. We have won 4 straight and we have them at home this year with an inexperienced coach. Please think before you post.
Ohio St is at least a tossup. You've got be kidding to think otherwise. You can think they are going to win...but a probable win...yeah right. They have a better chance against Michigan in Ann Arbor IMO
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