Magic and Barkley were ripping Lebron after the game for not being selfish with that shot. The entire time they were doing it, I was thinking Michael Jordan to John Paxson and Steve Kerr. Jordan allegedly "made it" when he learned to trust his teammates and not take every money shot. He was rewarded when Kerr and Paxson hit their open 3s. Now James is being told the opposite, which sure seems like a 2x standard to me.
I don't think the pass was the right or play. James easily scores or gets fouled if he keeps the ball. I can see how someone could think Marshall's look was too good to pass up... except that he's Donyell Marshall and not Horry or Paxson or even Trent Tucker.
I also disagree with the assertion that a 3 wins the game. There were 2.4 seconds left after the miss, chase and foul. Without looking at the tape I'm assuming a make gives the Pistons the ball at halfcourt with at least 4 seconds left, plenty of time to free Chauncey or Rip for a good look.
Even though LeBron pretty much had the layup, I have to believe if you ask any team in the league if they'd gladly take a look like that to win a road playoff game, they'd say yes.
James might have been a little too reluctant to drive and "get his" early in the game, but I can't fault him for passing it there. The guy was open by 15 feet.
BTW, am I the only one who has wondered how many takes it took Eric Snow to make that shot in the Nickelodeon Games and Sports commercial that he was in?
The above commenter is correct. If you give the Pistons a 20% chance to score after LeBron hypothetically tied the game, then they'd have the same chance after Marshall put them ahead.
I still think that was a look that you always take when you're on the road....
ma,
i thought the same thing. jordan took the one in '98, but he definitely was not against passing as a general rule.
also: pistons-cavs gets a write up but not pistons-bulls? i have to believe that the cavs pose a far lesser challenge, though admittedly it is the ECF. still, though? bulls hate runs that deep?
"Marshall's shot wins the game if it goes in."
I believe that even after the rebound and Pavlovic foul, there were still 2.8 seconds (or so) left on the clock. I'm not saying it would be easy, but I think there would be time for at least one more shot at the basket for Detroit. I'd call it 15% based on having to be somewhat more hurried than any imaginary post LeBron made basket shot.
Is it mere coincidence that BMart announces renovations to Crisler the day after taking in the game with Mr. D and Beilein? Either Mr. D took Rasheed's advice and cut the check or they stole $700K from Webber's locker.
I don't think you can completely discount the chances of an "and 1" opportunity if LeBron attempts the short shot/layup over Prince in your hypothetical mathematical analysis.
Is it possible to NOT put Rasheed on the potential shooter in these situations? I still have flashbacks from that Horry shot in the finals......that cost the Pistons the Championship.
FYI,
Donyell Marshall's career 3pt% is greater than Robert Horry's.
Lebron made the right play as the underdog on the road. If they were at home, you take it to the hole.
also: pistons-cavs gets a write up but not pistons-bulls? i have to believe that the cavs pose a far lesser challenge, though admittedly it is the ECF. still, though? bulls hate runs that deep?
I agree wholeheartedly. Especially after I begged for Brian's one-of-a-kind analysis of the Chicago series. Oh Brian...you broke my heart. Oh well...maybe next year, when the Bulls might legitimately have a chance of winning a series against the Pistons...
I agree with those who say the Cavs were going for the win (or more accurately, the lead) on the road. I think the play was drawn up for Lebron to pass first and shoot only if no double came. Sheed had no chance of altering Lebron's shot.
This makes the game theory Brian draws up all the more interesting because it wasn't a snap decision by Lebron, but a well (or not so well) thought out decision by the entire Cavs bench. I suppose you can add in the small percentage that the Cavs rebound the miss and get another shot as well. Also, I wonder if the Cavs have a less than 50% chance of winning OT on the road or agains the pistons in general
Didn't Chauncey hit 3 big shot threes in the 4th quarter? He played miserably for most the game, but I think he hit the big ones and lived up to his nickname.
LeBron made the right play. The reason we even know or care about Horry, Kerr, and Paxson is because when they were put in the same situation they won the game. You have to trust your teamates to win a championship..LeBron just needs a better team.
I want to see a Pistons Spurs rematch w/ the Piston winning it all this time.
DoubleB:
Per Pistons assistant coach postgame interviews, the Pistons were not going to foul LeBron on that last shot, even though the Cavs were counting on the Pistons to foul, since they had one to give.
LeBron's line should've been:
5-11 fg
6-8 ft
16 points
One one break-away, Hamilton grabbed LeBron at the top of the key to stop a fast break, fouled him AGAIN at the hoop, and there was no call. If the rest of the games are reffed like this. Pistons will sweep.
It's not like I was going to watch anything but the Suns, Warriors and Bulls anyway, so I guess it's just as well that you're doing this. Otherwise, I wouldn't have a clue.
And Gnarls, I really don't see the Bulls beating the Pistons next year either. They will need a serious post presence in order to combat Gordon's shortnitude and I don't think Hibbert, Hawes or that Chinese dude are it. They'll have to get ridiculously lucky, or get a package together. I really hope they get a sign-and-trade out of Nocioni, but he damn well better not come back next year. Duhon either.
great article on Quick.....although they make it sound as if he's never picked up a weight in his life. my favorite quote: "he never takes penalties..." awesome. he seems like a great 4-year prospect.
Not to turn this into a Bulls discussion, but Colin, I'm a little more optimistic about the current makeup of our team. Even without any major moves, I'm working under the assumption that Ben Wallace is healthier next year (he was a non-factor due to his back in the last two games) and that Tyrus Thomas shows some significant improvement. He has some serious potential. They still need an offensive presence inside, but they have enough to get a serviceable big man (though sadly, probably not awesome). Will they beat the Pistons next year? Who knows. Can they? I think by next year they'll have a chance. This year they were clearly overmatched.
All that being said, please Lord, let the Bulls get the first pick tonight.
People shouldn't be questioning LeBron so much for passing on that last shot, it's him not taking a shot in the last 3 possessions. He's got to take one of those rather than deferring to Z, Larry Hughes, and Marshall.
I don't care if Marshall's career 3pt % is higher than Horry's, he's Donyell Freaking Marshall. The chance of him hitting a high-pressure 3 on the road in the conference finals when he's barely played in the second half is infinitely lower than the chance of LeBron making a layup. It's not like the guy has a history of being clutch in big games, wheras LeBron has a history of making layups.
Saying that Ben Wallace was a non-factor because his back was hurting in the last two games is way off base. Ben Wallace was a non-factor becuase he's an aging center with no discernable basketball skill other than being a better athlete than everyone else and out-hustling everyone else. And since he's aging he's not a better athlete than everyone else. For an example see: the 2006 post-season.
Don't get me wrong, Ben will still be capable of carrying the Bulls for a game, maybe two. But to bank on the Bulls having a "better chance" to beat the Pistons next year and citing Ben Wallace as one of the main arguments isn't going to cut it. Not here among Piston fans who watched year one of his decline.
^^
Especially since no one really talks about Amir Johnson. If he was in this upcoming draft, he'd probably go 3rd behind Oden and Durant.
He's in our rotation next year. That kid is gonna be real good....
To say the Cavaliers "suck" is too much of a stretch. If they suck, they wouldn't have had Detroit sucking wind last year and wouldn't have shown up last night. To fall into the naitonal media that thinks the the Cavaliers are a bad basketball team is not correct at all.
Packer
First, I think that Wallace performance last year in the playoffs was not completely caused by age. Wallace is one dimensional player who depends on being deployed correctly to be successful. He is a much better weak side defender and being forced to cover Shaq for extended periods of time is not an optimal situation. Wallace is too small. I believe what made the Piston successful in covering Shaq when they won the championship was switching Wallace's shot blocking ability with bigger players (Elden Campbell played key minutes) who could do a better job of forcing Shaq to shoot from farther away. Either type of defense is insufficient to cover Shaq but changing between the two does not allow Shaq to develop any sort of rhythm because he has to different things to be successful against the different players. So, I do agree Wallace is not as god as he was, but I think it is mistake to contribute his performances totally to his decline and to see him as a non-factor next year is a mistake.
Second, the Bulls don't have to be better than the Pistons next year; they just have to be good enough to get Saunders to start whining about how poorly the Pistons are shooting. Once that happens, you don't need to beat the Pistons, you just have to wait for them to self destruct. (I except that to happen in the finals against the Spurs)
Threaaadddjack!
Anyway, I agree with Matt. There's no reason for the Bulls to expect Ben to be healthier next year than this. The premise in baseball prospectus is that for every year after age 30, the best predictive tool is the year previous. Ben had a handful of games all year where he was Ben. At this point, we should probably just write him off, because, again, his game is his athleticism.
On the other hand, Deng has a serious future in the league and could very well turn out to be a star. Gordon is a fairly prodigious scorer, and Hinrich can be a very good PG. Those are 3 pieces and Tyrus could be a 4th. The missing piece is a big man who can score in the post. Without that, they're too short and not tough enough.
I will say that Chandler was by no means an answer and was seriously worse than Ben this year, who can actually catch an entry pass and stay out of foul trouble. It wasn't a parallel move, but it certainly didn't put the Bulls over the top. Pax gambled and lost.
Also, Noc and Duh suck.
Not to pile on the Bulls, but another relevant point to make regarding Ben Wallace is that after next season (and this could quite possibly happen as soon as next season), his contract is going to destroy the Bulls cap situation. They've locked up Heinrich, but Deng and Gordon are going to be looking for an extension after next season. I know the Bulls cap situation isn't really that bad at the moment (it could get dicey if Deng commands a near-max deal), but talk to me in 3 years when you're paying Ben Wallace $14.5 million for a handful of rebounds and situational defense.
One final point that nobody seems to be making is that the NBA is an entirely different league than it was in 03-04 when the Pistons won it all. You could get away with lockdown defense and a grind it out style. As the playoffs last year showed, you can't win a championship playing the style of basketball that best uses Ben's abilities.
And I agree with Packer on Amir. From what I've heard had he gone to Louisville, this draft would be Oden and Durant at the top, Amir next, then that Wright-Horford-Brewer-Conley-Noah-Law group. It'll be interesting to see how the Pistons use him early next season.
The bulls are overrated in my opinion. They have some nice pieces, but shooting jumpers all day will get you nowhere.
I'm so glad I haven't had to read much about how LeBron should have taken it to the hoop to create a Defining Playoff Moment or Take Over the Series or some other shit.
Kicking to a good 3-point shooter who is wide open is a smart play.
No way the Pistons hold him to 10 on Thursday. Pretty sure the refs will have to put him on the line at some point.
do the bulls have any reason to exist w/o #23? i mean, that's like saying to a catholic, "yea, JC isn't with us anymore. but we're still the same religion"
whoever says King LJ is "not clutch" is an idiot in my book. Have you even seen him play? What about last year's playoffs? Don't you remember the tiptoe down the baseline? etc.
As for not FTs: only about 8 missed calls there. Let's see if the Pistons keep getting those calls.
- Tom
The Cavs have run that Lebron drive and 3 point play to Marshall alot the past two years with some success and have won a few games most notably last year vs. Washington in the playoffs using it. Damon Jones and Flip Murray were Lebron 3 point dish offs last year.
-The Bulls need some more size in the backcourt. Hinrich and Gordon are too small and become defensive liabilities against any team that starts two big guards or puts its guards in the post.
-LeBron didn't get any calls because he rarely took the ball toward the hoop with intent to score. Even on that last drive, he never even looks at the hoop, he was passing the whole way. For Cleveland to win that game, he's got to at least attempt a shot in one of the final three sets.
OK I get it...Ben Wallace sucks. :)
Sigh...
That Ben Wallace contract is going to keep the Bulls from reaching their full potential as a team.
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