Didn't PSU go 11-1 in 2005? I think that counts as a fairly respectable season and it came after 2002. Otherwise, great preview (as always) Brian.
Yes you have to love PSU's defense year after year, but the lack of offense year afer year is puzzling. I guess it's the recruiting and coaching on the offensive side of the ball.
A wonderfully detailed preview of the Lions. Not one i agree with in every regard but you certainly have solid reasons for making the predictions you did. In my heart of hearts I hold out hope for an undefeated season, a much more realistic outlook is 10-2. Coming out of the big ten undefeated is tough and seems to get tougher every year. I eagerly anticipate watching PSU and Michigan square off!
Old PSU head coach Rip Engle coined the "Fritz" linebacker term. He named it after a local pizza joint that a young bachelor coach named Joe Paterno used to eat at every night. That's a true story. So let's not let anyone who reads this preview go away believing the PSU coaches intentionally utilize racial slurs to designate positions on the field.
Great preview, Brian. Very entertaining read, though I think you're wrong on a few counts.
They're going to lose to Michigan, and 2 of the following 7 games: ND, OSU, Wisconsin, Iowa, at Michigan State, Purdue.
9-3 is my prediction - though I have them around 15-16 in the top 25.
And I think WCS is closer to 7-5, with both 12-0 and 6-6 possible (with FIU, Buffalo, Temple, Indiana, and Illinois all being gimmies, they start out at 5-0).
Mike,
Defend your alma mater. Where is Brian wrong, or are you saving that for your blog?
again, the puzzelment over the MSM ignoring PSU, Iowa and going with Wisc is surprizing. it's as if they think the Wisc QB has nothing to do with the Wisconsin offensive performance. Stocco was a 3 year starter, no? was thomas NOT as important to Wisc's OL as LEvi Brown was to PSU?
i don't know...your preview of Iowa is VERY much anticipated. i think they will be the darkhorse. as you said, there is alot riding on thin strings for PSU this year. Scott being closer to Perry than Underwood. no injuries to RB, QB, DBs. the OL 'coming together' or 'gelling.' the fact is, the PSU OL & DL are overall minuses, imo. and that spells 8-4 more than 10-2. i'd guess 9-3 with an additional loss to Iowa or Ill/ND. hell, if the PSU coaches thought blitzing a certain Sr ND QB was a bad idea, they could decide that blitzing a young ND QB is a bad idea too.
let the B10 meetings in Chitown begin!
Masked Avenger,
I may post a response on my blog if I get time. I don't have time at the moment to go into great detail, but here's a few things. My biggest gripe is Brian's perception of the offensive line which he admits is biased because of his first hand witnessing of them being destroyed by Woodley, Branch et al.
The move of Cadogen to tackle scares me the most. He wasn't great at guard last year, but then he was just a sophomore too. Now he's a year older and he'll have an extra nine weeks of working on technique in Bowl, spring, and preseason practice. The coaches seem to think he's doing well at tackle from what I've heard. They say it's his more natural position given his footwork and long arms. We'll have to wait and see there.
Dennis Landolt is an unknown at right tackle, but ask yourself this: Last year's starter, John Shaw, is still on the team and he's not the starter anymore. Isn't it safe to assume that Landolt must then be an upgrade over Shaw?
Lou Eliades is another unknown, but then I've been hearing good things about him as well. He must be better than Shaw and Ohrnberger since these two starters from last year are now fighting over the right guard spot.
I may be entirely wrong. I got duped last year into believing the offensive line would work itself out and everything would be ok. That didn't happen. This year there isn't particularly any reason to believe they will dramatically improve, but then they can't get much worse.
Austin Scott will be fine provided he stays healthy.
I think the starting D-Line will be Evans-Taylor-Koroma-Gaines. Maybe may beat out Gaines.
Odrick, Evans, and Taylor all saw significant playing time last year. Maybin, Baker, Koroma, Rogers and McEowen are all going to see significant playing time. The defensive line will be fine.
Sorry. Maybin may beat out Gaines...there is nobody on the roster named Maybe.
About blitzing... I re-watched the 2003 Mich-OSU game now and our offensive gameplan was a thing of beauty!
OSU, initially, brought the linebackers and safeties and Navarre connected on the speedy and shifty Perry multiple times resulting in first downs. And when they relented and stopped bringing the house, our O-Line owned their D-Line and Navarre could find Braylon all day.
Point being, blitzing is not the panacea.. especially not against a good QB who can 'sense' blitzing and change the call to screen. It should work against the ND starter QB but won't against M.
Great preview Brian. Your prose is not replete with numbers and cliches and it's refreshing to read.
Brian--you obviously didn't do it to Penn State. Notre Dame doesn't need it. And I know you wouldn't give OSU the satisfaction. So I am begging you: in your Wisconsin preview, please give them your Purdue/Iowa Death Sentence, thereby denying them any semblance of adequacy and making our season one game easier.
@HH:
11-1 is not fairly respectable. It's a great season. Michigan hasn't had a one-loss season since 1997 and a two-loss season since 1999.
Regarding the Nike contract, SouthernFriedWolverine posted this link yesterday.
http://www.nike.com/index.jhtml#...=US&co=US&
la=EN
Basically the Michigan #7 Player Twill Jersey actually read Michigan State #7...
Nike has since then changed that. But they obviously do not have the meticulousness that MGoBlog readers have. Take a look at the overview in the section. It clearly still states "Show them just how much you love Spartan football."
A big F*ck You to Nike.
The preponderance of good secondaries and dearth of experienced QB’s in the Big Ten should make for some old school football—and reawaken the chattering that the Big Ten is slow and old fashioned. Just imagine the comparisons of the Wisconsin PSU game with random SEC foolishness.
I wish I had as much confidence in PSU versus ND. This year’s game should indicate if ND fans need to head for the hills and Happy Valley can dream big. In the Weis era the key to beating ND has been throwing bombs. If you can do it then go straight to a 21 point lead. Otherwise, ND has had a pretty good chance. Unfortunately for the Nits, they have shown no ability to complete bombs with any consistency. I don’t think you beat Weis by playing defense—even this year. He’ll chip away with his pop gun offense and make you outscore him.
I vote that PSU's 2005 season was not merely respectable or GREAT but super respectable great awesome. They won a bowl game that year, and last. I can't remember how that feels. Pretty good I bet.
Brian, I was hoping for a Roseanne joke in your analysis of Dan Connor.
Why is the game at MSU an auto-win? PSU has had a lot of trouble winning in East Lansing.
If you have not seen London or France or the queen's undies, watch Penn State this year and you may well see something every bit as stupefying as you'd see in any of those other places
Another Lebowski reference. Bravo, two for two.
I'm glad you're not totally dumping on Morelli in this post. Irony loves to fuck with you and there would be no better way than to see Morelli beat us with his arm this year. The hedged bets should at least make it less likely.
awwww brian you screwed up the formula. you were supposed to do indiana next.
Another great preview with top notch content. And Mike, thanks for your comments as well.
MfBSD, with respect....imo, you're suffering from hopefullness syndrome. losing 1/2 of a very good d line is not good. last years Oline - Levi cannot yield optimism for increased or even level production.
it's the same "Player/position group will be 'fine' b/c i cannot stand to fathom the possibility of the alternative" -mind set that we as M fans will go through next year when we lose Crable, Henne, Hart, Long, 2 other starting OLs and maybe MM. i'm not saying you'll go 6-6 (tho it's possible with bad luck, ie injuries). 9-3 should suffice for a reasonable expectation.
the moral is, when you're pointing to position switches & unproven youth to make up for the loss of 1st round draft picks, it's time to take the blinders off.
that being said, our D should be 'fine' this year....
Threadjack:
The official email announcement of the BigTen Network came out today. MGoBlue now has an official FAQ, replete with all the expected foolishness.
My favorite quote:
We fully expect all cable systems and satellite providers to carry the network because they understand how important this programming is to you. By calling to inquire if your provider plans to carry the Big Ten Network, you will reinforce what they already know.
They even have a hotline set up so you can call and record an angry message.
I'm actually somewhat relieved to be moving to california next month, because it may actually improve my odds of being able to watch Michigan games. What a messed up world we live in.
/threadjack
DanK, you may very well be right. But I don't think I'm completely drunk on the Kool-Aid. There is a lot of young kids on the d-line, but they were all very highly touted recruits two years ago. We have a solid eight guys to rotate in and out, so I feel pretty good for no other reason than we're very deep.
The offensive line on the other hand, if I had to lay money down I would bet on them sucking ass. I'm just hoping the offense is good enough to put 21 points on the board because I think that's all our defense needs.
the "last respectable season" was perhaps unclear. What I mean is that the last time PSU was any good they imploded for two years afterwards. Then they were good in 2005, and did not implode afterwards.
How about The Sporting News calling the Penn State receivers number one in the Big Ten and number two in the nation!?! Right...and earth is the second-largest planet in our solar system. Even the best QB in the Big Ten couldn't make that corps second best in the nation.
Brian, regarding your comparison between PSU and UWisc...remember that the PSU offense must face the UWisc defense, and vice-versa. Perhaps a better method of comparison would be QB to QB, RB's to LB's, WR's to DB's, and OL's to DL's. Or compare pass offenses to pass defenses and run offenses to run defenses.
Regarding special teams, I like the UWisc kicking game over PSU's and I like PSU's return game over that of UWisc. Both teams can boast elite special teams players.
I would take the UWisc offense over PSU's because they have a track record of offensive success. They also have an offensive line that has played lots of reps together. They have far better left tackles waiting in the wings than PSU does (Bscherer, Carimi, and Oglesby) and the other four spots are set. They also have an identity with their zone blocking scheme. Beckum is an elite weapon and Hill is All-Big Ten. PSU has nobody who keeps defensive co-ordinators up at night (unless you count the night last October when Ron English stayed awake to watch his defense send two PSU QB's to the morgue).
Morelli versus Donovan/Evridge is a push, considering Donovan does have several years of practice and a win over Iowa under his belt. Both look like nimble ballerinas compared to "Combat-boots" Morelli.
At Wisconsin is the scariest game on UM's sked this year. Ask me after September 8th how I feel about the UM defense, but that looks like the game that will spoil our chances at a perfect record. Here's to one of Bielema's stars getting his leg twisted off by a walk-on covering a kick!
Go Blue!
Mike, I agree with your assessment of the PSU d-line. There are a lot of fine recruits there. Evans was a totally shirtless recruit, not just moderately shirtless. The attention paid to a great back seven will also make their jobs easier. Brian may be on to something stating that PSU is the darkhorse, but they are also hanging on by a thin thread. Their defense will keep them in games, their return men will gain them field position, then we will see. I don't think they will be very good at running the ball, though.
The problem with Penn State is their offensive line, which is not good.
O-Line is the foundation, and without it all the skill players in the world won't help you enough to overcome.
Defensively, they look very tough. Best pair of corners in the B10.
But unless Morelli can make vast improvement, I see PSU 8-4, maybe 9-3. Somehow I don't see Morelli making anything more than marginal improvement behind a very average at best O-Line.
This game is of great concern though because it comes after M has played Oregon and Notre Dame back-to-back. M's streak over PSU (8 in a row...is unbelievable) will come to an end soon. But I think soon will probably be in Happy Valley in 2008.
(SOJ just finishes up making a snowman with Satan and OJ Simpson). Gotta agree with your analysis MVM. I don't see it either with that O-line, QB, and Jay/Joe Paterno ability to kill anything within 5 feet of the playbook. Especially considering the special teams unit being meh at best and the Big 10 having so many teams with veteran/experienced defensive units returning......
Oh....Gawddam badass preview Brian.......Good Job..
I seem to be a little late to the party (still waiting for the douchebags at Comcast to show up at my new place on Tuesday), but this is a very good preview.
One point I tried very hard to make, both last season and in my whiny rant about the PSU offense this evening, is that Penn State really didn't play more than one or two good games last season. They struggled against the bad teams (red zone inefficiency, shaky FG unit, craptacular offense) and did just enough to hang in against UM, UW, and OSU to lose by a respectable margin. It would be easy to say that things just didn't go our way last season, but it would be a lie.
That said, there's a distinct possibility that the proverbial light will turn on this season. Could be lightning in a bottle, could be a turd wrapped in a crusty cocktail napkin.
Morelli really isn't stupid, or even bad. In reality, he was a first year quarterback who was hamstrung by a combination of butterfingered receivers, a Tecmo Bowl playbook, and a shitty offensive line. No quarterback in the nation is going to look good under those circumstances. There were many, many points last season where I thought that Morelli was the least of our problems on offense (outside of the Very Manly Tony Hunt, of course).
We didn't have any receivers catch a touchdown in a conference game until the closer against Michigan State. Yeah, Tony Hunt was a great running back, but come on -- that's not 100% Anthony Morelli's fault. That's the coaching staff playing it as safe as possible and holding the kid back. He's been mishandled from the moment he stepped on campus.
Also, I don't put much stock in the double pick-six @ OSU last year. They scored six points the whole game, were still only down by a touchdown with three minutes remaining, and he was forced to make something happen based on the plays sent into the game.
He didn't make something *good* happen, but I don't see those last few minutes as the giant black mark on Morelli's record that a lot of other people think. I'll homer-istically chalk it up as a learning experience.
Nice preview Brian. I remember last year I said you were overly condescending (sp?) in the PSU preview. Not the case this year.
I think 10-2 is about right for us this year. Probably, ok definitely, lose to you guys so my UM alum brother can talk shit for the eleventy billionth straight year, and then lose somewhere else along the line.
Good stuff.
Brian,
This is my first time to your blog and I really enjoyed reading this. Nice work!
Here's to PSU and UM stomping ND into the ground this season.
Cheers.
"I weep crocodile tears for whoever the ND quarterback is against this defense"
Gosh, Brian, that has to be one of the nicest things you have ever said about Notre Dame...
Excellent post. Love the detail.
Dude, will you be providing detailed previews on the other teams as well?
I can't wait to read your thoughts about Illinois, MSU and Wisconsin.
Go Blue!
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